The talk of the town is Milan Lucic and Jason Demers being in Edmonton and there’ll be a little bit of that today but we’re also going to chat about the mystery dman Bob Stauffer was talking about yesterday. I’d like to touch on Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as well.
So if you haven’t heard the latest edition of Oilers Now, Bob Stauffer sent the Oilogoshere on a wild goose chase for about 20 minutes before being sussed out my Mark Spector.
Ideal return for Hall is top pairing Dman who can play tough minutes against anyone, as opposed to 2nd pairing Off minded guy. Tough 2 find
— Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) June 28, 2016
Stauffer was teasing the listeners with talk of a right shot defenceman that nobody has been talking about. A rearguard that plays about 22 minutes, has an affordable contract, comes from a team that needs scoring and can handle the tough minutes. But there was one last caveat, there would be another piece that would have to be included that circles back to last year, about 15 months ago.
- Adam Larsson, 23 years old
- Shoots: right
- 22:30 TOI
- New Jersey had league worst 184 GF
- $4.16M per year with a NTC that kicks in at the start of 2018 and runs until 2021
So we can see here that Larsson and Greene took on all the hard starts and opposition. They didn’t quite keep their heads above water to say the least but New Jersey was a terrible team nonetheless. This is an Eastern Conference team that could really use a player like Taylor Hall. More on that later.
Let’s take a gander at Larsson’s HERO chart and Passing chart.
I’m not completely certain as to when the last time Stimson’s passing project was updated, so don’t quote me on the results of that chart but there’s one piece of data there that is interesting. Larsson’s SC SAG/60 Rank is nearly breaking through the top. Ryan Stimson’s Passing Project glossary tells us this:
- SC SAG – Pass sent into Scoring Chance (home plate) area and leading to a shot attempt
So I’m assuming that Larsson is very good at finding the open man in the offensive zone. Correct me in the comments below if I’m wrong.
As for his HERO chart, it’s actually nothing much to write home about. It places him in the shut down role as opposed to the offensive blueliner. But his playmaking is quite high. Could he be considered a playmaking shutdown defender? Great puck mover, not a shooter, very good at playing actual defense?
Well I went over to stats.hockeyanalysis.com and looked at the CA/60 for defenders over the last four years who’ve played at least 3000 minutes. The following resulted:
- Brendan Smith – 44.1
- Jake Muzzin – 44.23
- Drew Doughty – 44.85
- Andy Greene – 45.31
- Marek Zidlicky – 46.31
- Anton Stralman – 46.39
- Adam Larsson – 46.61
- Mattias Ekholm – 46.72
- Kevin Shattenkirk – 47.5
- Brian Campebell – 47.66
So there you have it. Apparently he’s good at defence.
I know that Stauffer had spoken about the Oilers possibly acquiring a top pairing defender AS WELL AS a PP specialist. Getting a guy like Larsson would definitely speak to that possibility which takes us to the Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for Matt Dumba proposal.
Mark Spector said that this was the offer Chuck Fletcher was proposing and nothing more. Take it or leave it. Personally, I’d leave it. Nuge is worth far more than Dumba himself. But it does open up the notion that IF Milan Lucic signs there’s a higher chance that a guy like Taylor Hall is moved. If he isn’t signed, then that means Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could be moved.
Or Both could be moved…
@wyshynski Hall lands a better Dman than RNH. And moving both isn't out of the question.
— Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) June 28, 2016
Are you warming up to this idea yet? Ha! It’s not as if Rishaug is lying here. This is a fact and the closer we get to July 1st, the more real it gets.
So what if the Oilers land Lucic AND Demers on a discount? Whether that discount be on term or salary, I could care less but for it to work plus deal Hall and/or Nugent-Hopkins, sacrifices would need to be made.
The deal Stauffer was talking about with regards to Hall/Larsson went something to the effect of Larsson, a prospect and a draft pick AT LEAST for Hall. He noted a few things:
- Hall and Adam Henrique played very well together in Junior
- Devils have a lot of prospects down the middle
- At some point, Chiarelli is going to acquire a 2nd rounder.
So if we take all of that into consideration, would Stauffer be happy with a return of:
- Adam Larsson, local product John Quenneville, and a 2nd round pick?
I’m not sure I’d be happy with that. Larsson would fill an organizational need, he’s young, his contract has some “permeance”, and they’d be getting that 2nd round pick back which might give them the option of sending out an offer sheet… I don’t know much about John Quenneville right now. So I won’t touch on that.
For me, Pavel Zacha would have to come back in that deal.
Now before you roast me, there’s no team in the NHL that is going to trade their top defenceman for Taylor Hall, even the post I wrote yesterday is blue skying it in hindsight. But trading Hall for Hamonic or Barrie, Spurgeon or Larsson wouldn’t make any sense on the Oilers end. The other teams would have to add. Hence the above proposals. But to counter that, if you’re dealing 1 for three, you’re losing the trade. That being said, I’ve always believed that the Oilers might need to make a deal that is perceived to be one that has been lost on paper.
A team that employs Milan Lucic, Pat Maroon, Zach Kassian, Darnell Nurse, and possibly Eric Gryba is a vast difference to the cupcake teams iced in the past. In specific roles and gauged ice-times, these players can be very effective.
But everything is fluid as Stauffer stated on the show. A lot of balls are in the air right now and it’s going to depend on who decides to sign here on Friday.
Lastly, I’m not completely sure if everything has been “signed” yet since the teams aren’t allowed to talk shop before July 1 but rumours have Lucic and Demers already having “handshake” agreements with the Oilers and Jordan Eberle being sent to the Blues for Kevin Shattenkirk who’d then sign a 6-7 year deal.
Take it for what it’s worth, I was told Del Zotto, Alt, Raffl, and a draft pick for Hall and a 3rd before the draft, so the rumours are flying high and they’re flying hot. It’s silly season again folks so buckle up! Let me know how you feel about all of this in the comments below!