I’ve spoken about this before but as we near the NHL entry draft in Florida things are becoming more clear to me. Whilst in Sunrise for McDavid Day the Oilers need to acquire a goalie. Whether that is for next season or 4 seasons down the road, trade or draft, it’s imperative that the Oilers set their goaltending future up right.
Monthly Archives: June 2015
8 – Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets are building something special. Not only are the cupboards stocked full with elite prospects in Bjorkstrand, Rychel, Milano; they also have some of their most valuable youngsters in Wennberg and Dano playing a big role on the Jackets. GM Jarmo Kekalainen has only been on the job for about two and a half seasons, but during that time has built a nice core around top line pivot Ryan Johansen. With veterans like Hartnell, Foligno, Tyutin, and now David Clarkson, CBJ prospects have a great leadership core to feed off of. The only issue facing the Jackets is their lack of defensive depth. After the departure of James Wisniewski and the fact that Mike Reilly has chosen to walk, it’s clear the Jackets need to do something to address their blue line. With a deep pool of prospects, a trade is always possible, but if the Jackets are looking at continuing the trend of building through the draft you’d have to think that – much like the Avs and Sharks – they are looking at acquiring a potential top pairing defenceman in one of Werenski, Provorov, or Hanifin. In a case where four forwards are selected with the first four picks, there’s a scenario where the Jackets look at moving up to 5 or 6 in order to grab one of Hanifin or Provorov. They have enough depth at forward where moving a player like Bjorkstrand, Rychel, Anderson, or even Milano are trade options. The name Mikko Rantanen has been tossed around a lot as well, mainly due to the fact he of Finnish descent. Rantanen is a good player, he just doesn’t seem to be a great fit given the amount of forwards already in the organization. In my opinion, it’s defence or trade for the Jackets and it’ll be a very interesting day for Jarmo and all CBJ fans.
Draft Day Gameplan
– Bring in a defenceman via trade. Whether you move out Rychel, Milano, or Bjorkstrand, a defenceman has to be on his way to Ohio.
– If there’s a deal for Dansk consider it. Bob’s not giving up the crease any time soon, so if there’s a deal for a 2nd rounder or defenceman, take it.
– There’s enough high end talent, look for guys like Knott or Dergachyov in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
– Go heavy on defence. There’s a good amount of defence scattered throughout the draft, don’t be afraid to grab around 5 of them.
Jackets Big Board (Without McEichel)
1. Noah Hanifin
2. Ivan Provorov
3. Dylan Strome
4. Mitchell Marner
5. Zach Werenski
6. Mikko Rantanen
7. Pavel Zacha
8. Mathew Barzal
9. Lawson Crouse
10. Jakub Zboril
Who do they take?
There’s a good chance that Zach Werenski is still on the board at 8 so he’d be the obvious pick. Don’t be surprised if the Jackets are picking somewhere other than 8 though, as they are in dire need of defence who can step into the NHL next season.
Darkhorse?
Two names come to mind when I look at darkhorses and the Jackets. Denis Guryanov and Oliver Kylington. Both have huge upside but also come with a bit of risk. Kylington the more likely pick in my opinion.
Making a case for David Musil
Reflecting on the Oiler’s 2nd Pick in 2011
As the most anticipated NHL draft in Edmonton Oilers’ history rapidly approaches, a quiet subplot looms in the background. Connor Mcdavid is surely a slam dunk for the number one pick and eventual generational talent, however, the concern remains: will there be any gems in rounds two through five, the ones every team needs to build a Stanley cup winner?
The 2011 draft is one that has drawn the critical eye of Oiler fans when in the second round, future impact NHL talents Boone Jenner and Brandon Saad, were passed over by the Oilers scouting staff in favor of a stay at home defenseman with the Vancouver Giants, David Musil.
To this point David Musil has played limited games in the NHL (two, to be exact) and questions about his lack of foot speed continue to dog him. Despite his detractors, there are enough positives to support the belief he may develop into the physical defensively sound rearguard the Oilers sorely need.
Of course you can’t argue there were better players taken after Musil, but as far as defenseman taken in rounds two and after, his development is more than comparable. Keep in mind, if Musil does succeed in making it as a pro, an ideal stay at home defenseman doesn’t get a lot of attention with his play. If you don’t notice him, it means he’s done his job.
And as far as progression goes, Musil’s has been steady. He followed up a strong final year in junior with the Edmonton Oil Kings (7-16-23 points in 48 games) with an . . . okay first year at pro in 2013-14 (2 – 10 – 12 and -2 in 54 games). And last year had a very solid season, posting 11 points in 65 games with the OKC Barons as well as improving his plus minus 12 points to plus 2.
But it was when Musil was given a cup of coffee with the big club at the end of last season that some eyebrows were raised. Not by Musil’s flashy play, but with his steady confidence in the limited minutes he received, as well as showing the ability to do something the majority of Oiler defenseman seem unable or unwilling to do: physically stop the cycle of opposing forwards.
As for his much maligned skating ability, I didn’t notice him lagging that far behind in the two NHL games he played. However, most agree it will be an area that requires improvement. I’m not an NHL scout, so they’re probably right. But the good news is that in today’s advanced athletics he can improve upon his footspeed, he just has to be willing to work on it.
It’s in the genes
And on that end, Musil’s bloodlines indicate he has the character and work ethic to overcome this limitation. Not only is there father Frank Musil who toiled 13 seasons as a journeyman NHL defenceman, but also Uncle Bobby Holik who had a lengthy NHL career being one of the first euro-power forwards. None of David’s relatives were known for their flash, but were hard-working physical pro hockey players, which Musil is on pace to be.
But if there were better forwards passed over in the second round, was there a slam dunk better defenceman available? The quick answer to that question is, not really. The criteria for a significantly better D-man pick would be one chosen in the second round or later of the 2011 draft, and who has played at least one full season, or 80 games. At this point, no one really stands out significantly.
The most advanced D-man pick from the 2011 draft picked outside of the first round I could find would be Nikita Nesterov (fifth round pick in 2011) of the Tampa Bay Lighting, who has played 27 regular season games and 17 in the post-season in 2015 and will likely be promoted to full-time duty next season. But he’s sub-200 lbs, and not likely what the Oilers need in terms of physicality.
Conversely, Musil is 6’3, 204 lbs., and has the physical tools he needs to be an effective NHL defenseman . . . as long as he can improve his skating. Look for him to get a longer look this year, and after one more year of seasoning in the minors, a roster spot.
Several years after the 2011 draft, rumors persist that Musil Junior indeed wasn’t the Oilers scouts’ choice in the 2nd round of the 2011 daft, and that they favored Boone Jenner. However, then GM Steve Tambellini apparently insisted on drafting a defenseman and here we are. Four years later the Oilers are still in desperate need of physical defensemen, and while Musil is taking his time getting to the NHL, he should be just what the Oilers need when he gets there.
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Who knows where they’ll go.. Risers and Fallers
Whether it’s Jakub Vrana rising to 13, or Ivan Barbashev falling out of the first round, one thing is for certain; the NHL entry draft can go any way imaginable.
There’s no way to predict the first round with 100% accuracy, and there’s a few factors that play into why that’s not possible. First off, teams have vastly different draft lists. This was evident in 2013 when the Sharks traded away their 20th pick along with a second rounder in order to get a player whom many believed would still be there at 20. Did they make the right call in jumping up and grabbing Mirco Mueller? That’s still up for debate, but as for now he’s looking like a top 15 guy from that year. Another large factor that plays into the rise and fall of a prospect is the information that comes out mere days before the draft. Though lists are finalized prior to the draft, the investigation doesn’t stop until the team finally drafts the player. The hockey world is small, and information can be easy to attain given you have the proper credentials and networks.
This year is full of players who have the potential to go anywhere from the first to fourth round. That’s a huge gap, but when you look at players like Ryan Pilon, Dennis Yan, and Nicholas Roy, you can see why different services and independent scouts have these guys ranked all over the place. It would be quite surprising to see a player like Pilon drop into the 4th, and though I’m not a fan of his, there’s something to be said for projects with potential.
Now looking at the possible risers or fallers who are ranked in the first few rounds, there are a few names that stick out:
Risers
– Denis Guryanov: The speedy Russian winger wowed scouts at the U-18’s. He showed his ability to be a burner on the outside and wasn’t afraid to drive the net. He’s a fiery guy who has good offensive capabilities. He’s ranked in the top 10 by The Redline Report, and could very well be a top 10 pick.
– Colin White: Much like Guryanov, White had a very impressive showing at the U-18’s. At the beginning of the season, White was a consensus top 10 player, but after a rocky start he saw his stock begin to slide. He wasn’t a point per game player this season, but still put up an impressive 71 points in 74 games (USHL and USDP combined) I would love to see a team take him in the top 14.
– Jacob Larsson: It’s not so much the fact he played 20 games in the SHL, rather the points he put up in the U20 program are more than impressive for this 6’2 left shot defender. Larsson has an underrated physical edge to his game but by no means is he a stay at home defenceman. He’s a brutish, two way offensive defenceman. Many services have him around 30, but in my opinion he’s a top 25 guy.
– Jansen Harkins: I fell in love with Jansen Harkins during a preseason game in St. Albert, Alberta, when he went dad to head with Adam Musil. Not only does he have elite playmaking ability, he thinks the game at another level. It was clear this season he was the best Cougar, and in terms of an NHL career I believe he will be able to fill in a second line center spot.
– Jake Debrusk: I believe it to be true that Jake Debrusk watched his father at an early age and decided to do the complete opposite. Though the fiery nature of Louie lives inside of him, Jake adopted the pure offensive side of the game from somewhere else. He put up an impressive 42 goals for Swift, and after playing in the Top Prospects game, returned with a ton of confidence. If there’s going to be an unexpected riser into the top 15, its Jake.
Other notable risers include Noah Juulsen, Vince Dunn, Filip Ahl, Julius Nattinen, Parker Wotherspoon, Christian Jaros, and Nikita Korostelev.
Fallers
– Lawson Crouse: I’m a fan of his game and hope all the best for Lawson in the future, but the boom or bust potential is there. We’ve seen power forwards who were taken early before wash out rather quickly, and it’s possible Crouse suffers the same fate. Personally, I like Crouse, and I think his stats tell an interesting story.
– Kyle Connor: Some services have Connor ranked as high as 5 but I really don’t see it. Like Crouse, Connor’s stats are intriguing. I’ve looked into it a bit, and though I can’t claim to have done a ton of research on the subject, I couldn’t find a USHL player who put up numbers as good as his in the past 5 years. He’s a bit of a wildcard and it will be interesting to see where he goes.
– Paul Bittner: I’ve been high on Bittner all season, but he has shown some signs that leave me second guessing him. He has a lot of raw tools like size, defensive ability, and skating, but the inconsistency he’s shown is a bit of a red flag. Some people, including myself have said he looks like the next Max Pacioretty, but in order for that to come to fruition he has to do what he does best on a more consistent basis.
– Jakub Zboril: Throughout the season Zboril has seen a good chunk of among the top half of the first round prospects. He brings a sort of nastiness scouts and GM’s love. The one thing I have a problem with is when he’s labelled an offensive defenceman. He did put up 33 points this season, but doesn’t necessarily have elite offensive instincts. He’s a mean two way defenceman, who will be an NHL’er, but may not bring the offence many hope for.
– Gabriel Carlsson: Though I do see Carlsson going near where he is projected (30-40ish) I think he’s a guy who could fall a bit further, possibly into the 50’s. He didn’t have a bad season, in fact I was rather impressed that he saw time in the SHL, but the fact that he’s projecting to be a stay at home defenceman. It’s possible he ends up similar to a Dennis Seidenberg, but in today’s NHL, I believe it’s safer to go after good puck moving D who can jump up in the rush.
A few other potential fallers to keep an eye out for are Nicholas Roy, Travis Dermott, Jordan Greenway, Guillaume Brisebois, Graham Knott, Vladislav Gavrikov, and Ryan Pilon.
There’s a few notable players who have a large trajectory in terms of where they could go. Some, such as Barzal in the first round could go anywhere from pick 4 to pick 14. Here’s a few guys to watch for who fall into the “wildcard” category.
Wildcards
– Mathew Barzal: After an injury plagued season, Barzal showcased his skill at the U-18’s putting up an impressive 12 points in 7 games. Barzal is an offensive catalyst who can pass the puck like few others in the league. He sees the ice extremely well, and in my opinion is poised to dominate as a 19 year old. At the next level, he’s a really good second line center who may push for the number one spot, similar to Logan Couture.
– Yevgeni Svechnikov: The nearly 6’4 Russian forward burst out of the gate during his first year in North America and finished up with 78 points in 55 games. He needs some work on his defensive play, and maybe needs to find a way to keep himself engaged for all 60 minutes, but Svechnikov has some great tools to work with. He takes pride in his shooting as he has a deadly one timer, and his ability to get into open space means he’s usually able to get a few on net each game. He’s usually listed as a left wing, but he did play the majority of the season on the right side, and ended the year at center.
– Brock Boeser: The Waterloo winger had a good campaign offensively recording 68 points in 57 games. He’s committed to North Dakota for next season and should be nearly a point per game as a freshman. He’s drawn comparisons to Patrick Sharp, primarily due to his ability to hold his own in the defensive end. He’s not a defensive player by any stretch, but rarely does he make a mistake in his own end. His best tool, like Svechnikov, is his shot. He can beat goalies at point blank range and that’s reflected on his stats page as he put up 35 goals. At the NHL level, I see a bit of a Beau Bennett curve. A very good third liner who can be a second line player.
– Oliver Kylington: No one has slipped this season like Oliver. A consensus top 5 pick at the beginning of the year, Kylington fell consistently month to month. He has all the tools, they’re just not put together. For a team looking at a project with extreme upside, look no further. He skates like the wind and sees the ice extremely well. His defensive zone coverage, though highly criticized, isn’t as bad as many say. He does need some work putting all of his tools together, and rounding out his game, so a team like Tampa Bay may be the best fit.
– Brandon Carlo: For the majority of the year Carlo sat in the 20th to 24th spot for most services. It was only recently we began to see him fall out of the top 30. Though many services and scouts have him out of the top 30 in terms of rankings, he’s almost always gone in the first round when you look at mock drafts. He’s 6’5, nearly 200 pounds. With a frame like that you have to consider him an option no matter where you’re drafting. Though he could fall to 35 maybe even 40, I could see him being the surprise of the draft and going in the top 20.
Other wildcards include Travis Konecny, Timo Meier, Daniel Sprong, Anthony Beauvillier, Alexander Dergachyov, Matthew Spencer, Conor Garland, Rodrigo Abols and Erik Cernak.
And finally, a player who may be a riser, may fall, and is definitely the most highly debated prospects: Jeremy Bracco. I have to admit, I have absolutely zero clue where he may end up. He has the skill and skating ability to be a top 15 pick, but the size is such a glaring issue. You have to take a step back and look at the success he’s had at every single level and ask yourself “why not the NHL?” Bracco tore apart the USDP this season, stole the show at the U-18s with the tournament winning assist, and even put up 32 points in 24 USHL games (also a +20 which is odd, but says a lot). The Boston College commit has dominated offensively at every level he’s played at, so he may very well be the gem of the draft. I feel as though a team already deep in prospects (Anaheim, Tampa Bay, or Winnipeg) NEED to take a shot on Bracco as he could be an offensive dynamo for years to come.
9 – San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks find themselves in a rather unique situation comparative to years past. After missing the playoffs, as well as the perceived controversy in both the locker room and front offices, it’s safe to say the Sharks are ready to make a few changes. They already have some good young pieces in Mirco Mueller, Nikolay Goldobin, Tomas Hertl, and Matt Nieto, but they’re still a few pieces away from a rebuilt top six. One positive they have going for them is 26 year old pivot Logan Couture. Having a player like Couture alleviates some of the stress associated with finding a top 6 center. After making the rocky relationship between management and Jumbo known to the public, It’s possible he may have seen his last home game in the Shark Tank. Others who are rumoured to be on the block include Patrick Marleau and Brent Burns. Throw in Pavelski and Vlasic, and we could see a full on rebuild. As for the 9th pick, there’s a few directions they may end up going. Mathew Barzal’s name has been tossed around, however I don’t believe he’d be a good fit. Much like the Avs, the Sharks defensive depth is suspect, but the answer lies with Zach Werenski. Perhaps it would be in the best interest of both the Avs or the Sharks to move up because the chances of Werenski making it past the Jackets are very low.
Draft Day Gameplan
– Acquire a top 15 pick. Stars and Panthers may have interest in Burns/Pavelski.
– Move Joe Thornton for best possible return. A first (likely late) plus a good prospect may get it done.
– Address the crease. The Sharks do have a decent amount of forward prospects, so moving picks for a goalie like Talbot would be smart.
– Look at moving up. If Hanifin/Provorov falls, look to get in the top 7.
Sharks Big Board (Without McEichel)
1. Dylan Strome
2. Noah Hanifin
3. Ivan Provorov
4. Mitchell Marner
5. Zach Werenski
6. Mikko Rantanen
7. Pavel Zacha
8. Mathew Barzal
9. Lawson Crouse
10. Kyle Connor
Who do they take?
With the Jackets poised to grab a defenceman, it’s unlikely one of the big 3 make it past pick 8. If they’re looking at forwards, Barzal, Crouse, even Yevgeni Svechnikov would be good options. When it comes down to it, Lawson Crouse is the guy they go with.
Darkhorse?
In a year where the first round is as deep as it is, it’s hard to pick out a real “dark horse” per say, but two names I’d keep an eye on are Jansen Harkins of the Prince George Cougars as well as Everett’s Noah Juulsen.