Oilers Targeting Former U of A Golden Bear?

I see the Oilers making a couple of subtle moves at this time. Certainly if they can get a cheaper faceoff option to help Drake Caggiula. Doesn’t mean that Caggiula doesn’t play, maybe it just pushes Caggiula to the wing. It might just be a scenario where in a perfect world they find a centre/right winger who can take the right side draws, a guy that is an unrestricted free agent. There’s not a lot of guys out there like that and right now because everybody is compressed, everybody thinks they’re in the mix but maybe that changes moving forward. – Bob Stauffer on Oilers Now! (2/7/17)

That is THE quote from Bob Stauffer on yesterday’s Oilers Now! If you want to listen to the clip, click here and skip to around 15:50 of the first segment.

If you’re a faithful listener of Oilers Now! you’d know that starting this season Bob Stauffer has started to really pump the tires of former University of Alberta Golden Bear and Swedish Hockey League MVP Derek Ryan. This has lead me to believe that he’s been a target of the Oilers for a while now.

Now as it stands, the 30 year old Ryan is playing for the Carolina Hurricanes and they are a team that might be considered “in the mix” for a wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference and there’s a pretty decent chance that they fall out of that race as they only have a significant winning record vs. Boston, Buffalo, and the surging New York Islanders this season.

The Canes are 4-6-0 in their last ten games according to TSN.ca and this month they’ll play (this season’s records included):

  • Washington (A) – 1W 2L 1OT
  • Dallas (A) – haven’t played
  • Colorado (H) – haven’t played
  • Toronto (H) – 1W 0L
  • Pittsburgh (H) – 0W 2L
  • Ottawa (H) – 0W 1L 1OT
  • Calgary (H) – 1W 0L
  • Florida (A) – 1W 0L

But that being said, the Hurricanes have yet to play Colorado, Arizona, and Dallas. All teams that are looking ripe for the picking and they have a home record of 17-6-1. So if they can keep up the pace, maybe they won’t fall out of the wildcard race but at the moment, they’re a point out of dead last in the Eastern Conference and that fits the narrative of this post 🙂

Back to Derek Ryan!!

Derek Ryan is also a forward who is right-handed and can line up on either the right wing or take draws as the centreman… #weird.

At the moment, Bill Peters has Ryan slotting in on the first line between Jeff Skinner and Lee Stempniak but he’s seen time on the right-side with Victor Rask as the centre. The former CIS (west) and SHL MVP has 18 points in 38 games this season but he’s pointless in his last ten games.

Now, I’ve momentarily considered Ryan a potential grab for the Oilers in the past, mostly because Stauffer has brought him up fleetingly (as he tends to do when he’s tossing out hints), but thought nothing of it because I was under the impression that Edmonton would be going after a bigger fish like Brian Boyle or Martin Hanzal. A typical fan’s train of thought, no? I mean, they could very well be looking to add one of those players as well but I do know that a right-handed centre is something they crave. What solidifies it for me are a handful of things:

  • Ryan is an unrestricted free agent this summer.
    • Ticks another box off of Bob’s checklist above.
  • He’s a former Golden Bear.
    • We love our home town boys but nobody loves them more than Bob and I’m sure he’d be first to admit it.
  • The Oilers are dead last in the NHL in FOW% (47.2%)
    • That shouldn’t mean too much because Columbus is 2nd last in the league but still, it’s a problem if the Oilers are going to do any damage in the playoffs.
  • Derek Ryan has a FOW% of 58.6% (394 taken, 231 won)
    • He’s 5th in the league behind Bergeron, J.Staal, Duchene, and Vermette (250 FO minimum).

Stats courtesy of NHL.com

If you fancy the fancies… I offer you the following numbas 5×5 amongst forwards from stats.hockeyanalysis.com:

  • CF60relTM: +1.28 (4th on CAR)
  • CA60relTM: +3.18 (8th on CAR)
  • FF60relTM: -.58 (6th on CAR)
  • FA60relTM: +1.1 (8th on CAR)

Not great advanced shot metrics in my opinion. He doesn’t promote shots or do much to prevent them.

On the powerplay (91 min), Ryan has a pts/60 of 3.78 which lumps him into the same pile as Mark Letestu (3.77) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3.83). Other notable players in that same area are Martin Hanzal, Alexander Barkov, Ondrej Palat, Sean Monahan, and Anze Kopitar. Not too shabby.

The reason I mention the power play is because IF the Oilers were to acquire Ryan, he’d definitely be getting PP time to take some of the pressure off of Letestu and to give each PP unit a different look. And let’s be honest, McDavid’s unit could use a different option apart from Draisaitl’s bumper in the slot or Lucic down low. Teams are onto those plays now.

I can’t even imagine where to start when it comes to what the Oilers would have to give up to get Ryan. Vernon Fiddler was dealt for a 4th rounder, so I’m going to say that a mid-round draft pick is a good start. I mean the Hurricanes are looking pretty decent in the prospect department and according to capfriendly.com, they are projected to have about $13M in cap space at the deadline to play around with. So… If I were Peter Chiarelli, I’d see what it would take to get Carolina to take Mark Fayne off of my hands as well as send me Derek Ryan.

Mark Fayne + Brandon Davidson
for
Derek Ryan and a conditional pick

Thoughts? I don’t reckon Carolina necessarily needs Davidson but might be tempted… Who knows?

What do you think about the Oilers possibly looking into Derek Ryan? Let us know in the comments below the t-shirts!

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Patrick vs. Hischier: A Battle For Top Spot

Each year there are a number of preconceptions surrounding a draft class. 2015 was hailed as “the best since ‘03” years before it took place, and was praised for its depth in both the first round and throughout the remainder of the draft. With 18/30 first round selections having already played their first NHL game, it’s hard to argue that the preconceptions regarding that draft class were wrong. The preconceptions surrounding the 2017 draft class are vastly different, with many questioning both it’s depth and talent at the top. Though I believe the depth aspect of this draft is lacking, the talent at the top isn’t something to scoff at.

Nolan Patrick vs. Nico Hischier has been the battle presented to the masses this season, and though many, including myself, believe Nolan Patrick will likely be the first overall selection, Nico Hischier has done nothing but impress throughout his rookie QMJHL campaign. Throughout 43 games, Hischier has managed 76 points (1.77 ppg/2nd amongst QMJHL skaters), and has been relied upon in every situation for the Mooseheads, a testament to his ability to think the game at a very high level. His Zetterberg-like approach to the game has made it evident that he will be an effective player at the next level, and given the skills he possesses coupled with his ability to produce at all levels, it’s hard to see him not becoming a top line, point producing NHL player in the near future.

Since his return to the Wheat Kings lineup, Nolan Patrick has been dominant, recording 14 points in 8 games as well as a fight victory against Tyler Wong on January 31st. The Wheat Kings captain has drawn comparisons to Ryan Getzlaf, as the big bodied forward has proven to be an offensive zone force with his ability to push through traffic and be an effective scorer from in tight. He projects to be a top line NHL player, and given his versatility and ability to play in all situations as well as on the wing, he’s an ideal fit for nearly every team. Amongst teams poised to hold the first selection, Colorado would be an ideal fit giving their young core revolving around Nate MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Tyson Jost.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3muLUzDVw0

The most intriguing talking point when looking at these two high-end players is the west coast vs. east coast differences in their games. Teams have their choice of Nico Hischier, a true finesse, speedy, skilled type of forward, similar to Henrik Zetterberg or Nolan Patrick, the powerful, dynamic point producer similar to Ryan Getzlaf. Given the current layout of the NHL standings, both are likely western conference property when it’s all said and done, and regardless of which player goes first, I believe both will be successful NHL Players.

Though Patrick and Hischier have been the two players featured in headlines, they are being pushed by some highly skilled and talented players. Timothy Lijegren, the top-ranked defenceman for this draft has had an up and down year, dealing with mono as well as demotion to Allsvenskan following a disappointing return from his sickness. Liljegren is a highly intelligent, smooth skating defender who’s omission from the Swedish World Junior roster left many confused given his ability to play in all situations as well as produce offensively. He’s a defenceman teams will have to be patient with, and we may end up seeing him spend another year or two in Sweden before coming over, though significant AHL time may not be the worst thing for his development. Casey Mittelstadt of Eden Prairie is a player who will garner attention from teams picking in the top five, and in my opinion may be a top three forward when we look back at this draft five years from now, as he boasts a strong offensive two-way game, and has really proven to be difficult to play against. He’s a solid player whose hard to knock off the puck and can be a dynamic offensive force.

 

Regardless of who is selected first overall, the 2017 draft brings a unique mix of offensive talents, with players who possess a wide range of skillsets and intangibles. It may not have the McDavid or Matthews hype, but any team picking in the top ten is walking away with an excellent player.

Thank you for reading, and if you have any questions or comments be sure to reach me at @DraftGeekHockey on Twitter or comment below!

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Today’s Oilers Rumours: My Take

The Edmonton Oilers bye week is upon us and not that we’ve got 5 days of no Oilers hockey there’s not a lot going on in the rumor mill these days regarding the Oilers so what we’re seeing is some fan fiction being tossed about on Twitter. Today, we had two instances, one coming from Alan Hull (Copper and Blue) and another from Josh Marshall (I know you’re asking yourself, who? It’s fine, you’re not the only one wondering.) and I’m going to offer my commentary on both if you please. If you don’t, go here.

Let’s start with the more notable of the two.

I think Brain Boyle must be Brian Boyle’s smarter cousin or it could just be a typo. Anyways, I don’t think that the Lightning are looking to deal for Davidson. Reason being, they have younger dmen who are equally as good, if not better AND they have three actual NHL defenders on the left side in Hedman, Garrison, and Coburn. Yes, Brandon Davidson can play the right side but even there Tampa has Stralman, Sustr, and Witkowski. One would have to argue if Davidson is better than Witkowski IF that was even an option. Jon Cooper likes his righty/lefty pairings on D. You can check out their organizational depth

You can check out their organizational depth here.

From an Oilers perspective, this would be a steal of a deal. Edmonton would get their BIG strapping centre who’s good on the dot, it would give them some more centre depth, and he’s very experienced playoff in the post-season. Being a 32-year old UFA at the end of the year wouldn’t worry them one bit.

From a Tampa Bay expansion perspective, the Lightning are a tad screwed. Stralman, Hedman, Garrison, and Coburn all have no-movement clauses and to add to that group on forward are Ryan Callahan, Valtteri Filppula, and Steven Stamkos. So that is 7 players they need to protect and automatically are forced into the 4-4-1 format for the expansion draft unless one or more of them agree to waive their clause. One of those players could do that this month and make Steve Yzerman’s job a bit easier too. In that scenario, MAYBE Davidson

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becomes a member of the Lightning.

So I call BS on Mr.Marshall’s “breaking news”.

Alex Thomas from the Oilers Rig also offered his take on this rumour here. Thomas’ coverage of the rumour is tight and worth a read but it’s this one sentence that irks me a bit.

Tampa Bay is in desperate need of young defenders

This is simply not true. If you look at the link above and check out their org. depth, you’ll see that of the left-handed defenseman in the Lightning’s pipeline that there are players like Slater Koekkoek, Dominek Masin, and Jonathan Racine playing in the AHL. We could add to them the Saskatoon Blades’ Libor Hajek. So they’re not “desperate” by any means. Could they get younger, YES! Coburn and Garrison are in the latter halves of their careers and not getting any faster.

I agree with Thomas, in that the Oiler should pull the trigger, I just don’t see it as realistic.

HULL OF A EFFORT

To NYI:Jordan Eberle (RW) & Kris Russell (D)

To EDM:Travis Hamonic (D) & Jaroslav Halak (G)

This is a fan proposal from Copper and Blue and if you can’t see the plethora of wrong in it already, we may have a problem, Houston.

The whole proposal is banking on the Oilers picking up a goal-scoring right winger. If the Oilers made this trade, and Hull certainly does a fine job trying to sell you on it, they’d be behind the 8-ball again. Just like in the summer when they traded Hall. I like the Hall trade more than ever now and perhaps that deal might not be viewed as trading from a bad position today but it really did in the summer and this is not the kind of place you want to be trading from because the other GMs will eat you alive.

They also get Kris Russell, who, I’ve been among the largest critics of, though I have always maintained he was a legitimate NHL Dman. Russell’s inclusion is a short-term plug for the hole left by the loss of Hamonic.

It’s not surprising to see Hull include Russell in such a proposal, his allegiance to Matt Henderson does nothing to help. But with that said, swapping Russell for Hamonic would be an upgrade for the Oilers and I’ve advocated for Halak being the Oilers backup before. Of course, my proposal was that the Oilers trade Pouliot for him… Not sure if that is any better than the above.

Is Travis Hamonic not a less skilled version of Adam Larsson though? I wanted to say grittier but Larsson has shown us this year that he’s no shrinking violet and he’s been consistently healthy (knock on wood). He also cost the team Taylor Hall. #ThePriceYouHaveToPay

Bottom line is, Hull makes a semi-compelling argument but the Oilers defense is performing fine, in fact, better than fine. According to NHL.com, the Oilers are 10th in the NHL in goals against. Last season the Oilers finished 27th…

So adding anything more than a Shattenkirk-type to aid the PP is redundant. Taking away from the RW with the “hopes” of adding to it is pie in the sky thinking. Are the Islanders in a position to be removing such a strong part of their defense in return for offense?

So adding anything more than a Shattenkirk-type to aid the PP is redundant. Taking away from the RW with the “hopes” of adding to it is pie in the sky thinking. Are the Islanders in a position to be removing such a strong part of their defense in return for offense?

I’d love to add Travis Hamonic and Jaro Halak to the team but in my opinion, take it for what you will, it doesn’t work without both teams making other moves first and that’s the kicker. It’s hard enough to make a trade in the NHL today but to have not just one team but two teams move multiple pieces around so they can make this one deal, it simply doesn’t fly.  I’d argue that the Islanders would rather add a player like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins anyhow and then restructure the roster to fit around a 1-2 Tavares/RNH punch.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!

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Davidson on the Block According to Friedman

“The Oilers don’t want to lose [Davidson] for nothing. I think there’s some interest in him,” Friedman said Saturday on Hockey Night in Canada. “And especially since they have to sign the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl and Russell in the next little while.

“I think there’s going to be some talk around Davidson’s name.” – Elliotte Friedman (source)

This shouldn’t be news to anybody but I’m not convinced that Davidson would be lost to Vegas in the expansion draft and with today’s recall of Griffin Reinhart, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was actually the former 4th overall pick that was selected instead of Davidson who’s been having a very difficult time since having Dustin Byfuglien take out his knee last March.

Look, we loved him last season because he was a great hockey story and he was playing out of this world for a team that desperately needed a defender like him at that time. He’s not that player this year so far. I’m guessing he gets the push to the 2nd pairing alongside Sekera for the game against Montreal and his performance will tell me what I need to know with regards to his future if that is indeed where he gets deployed. #SmallSampleSize

We know that Colorado and Arizona have been scouting the Oilers quite a bit recently and it’s possible that both teams have pieces that would interest Edmonton. Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal, Mark Stone, Jarome Iginla, Joe Colborne, etc. have been mentioned in rumor mills and media spots over the last month or so.

The Oilers are looking for a right-handed centre, a back-up goalie, and possibly a right-handed dman for the PP.

I hope he does VERY well so that he brings the team a bit more at the deadline but the fact is, if Chiarelli can find a buyer, Davidson will be plying his trade with another team come March 2nd, 2017.

MARK FAYNE 

Somebody who won’t be playing for another NHL team, nevermind his own, is Mark Fayne. He was overlooked when the swift-skating Jordan Oesterle and the possibly emerging Griffin Reinhart were recalled to Edmonton instead of him. Some folks are just flabbergasted by this and I am not one of them.

Mr.Leavins has it right and my argument is IF Mark Fayne was really THAT good, he’d be in the NHL but he’s not and no amount of numbers from the time he spent in New Jersey will untie the piano from his ass and make him an NHL-level dman in 2017. Just because he shoots right-handed doesn’t make him the right man for the job.

You might argue that Eric Gryba is no better a defenseman and you may be partially right from a mobility viewpoint but here are some stats from stats.hockeyanalysis.com. These are the 5×5 numbers from the 2015/16 season.

As you can see, there is very little difference in the numbers of the fancy variety to make an educated judgment. Mark Fayne make nearly $4M dollars annually (Thanks, previous regime!!) and Gryba brings home a paltry 950k per year. So that’s another strike against Fayne. There is one more thing that puts Gryba over the top and I believe it’s his ability to fit into Chiarelli’s team profile.

There is one more thing that puts Gryba over the top and I believe it’s his ability to fit into Chiarelli’s team profile.

It’s a funny thing when the Oilers starting adding all these “Glue Guys” to the dressing room what has happened. The team has actually started to come together. Respect amongst your teammates is so important when going into battle night in and night out. Russell, Gryba, Maroon, Kassian, Hendricks, Nurse, Larsson, and Lucic are all players that do that and I’m a happier Oilers fan that they’re on my team and not another. How are those players doing that were moved this summer anyhow? Stanley Cup Finals-bound, I’m sure.

TWITTER

I’ve had a pretty interesting weekend, to say the least on Twitter. Former Oilogosphere icon Dennis King decided that he’d come out of nowhere and have a go at me and was tossing out his usual smart-ass comments but didn’t like it when I threw them back at him resulting in him blocking me. Matt Henderson decided to go the same route after I called him out for being a hate monger.

For those that do know me or have followed me online for some time, you’d know that I’m not the type to go this far on a consistent basis, but I felt compelled in this instance due to Henderson’s mightier than thou attitude. He let the mob get to him and you can’t do that when you’re in a position such as his. I could’ve just let him stew in his own juices, which in hindsight might’ve been a better and more mature option but the “I hate bad players and the people who like them.” comment really irked me and I feel justified in letting Matt know how I felt in a public forum. Hate has no place within the Oilogosphere that I participate in let alone in the world.

Now I’m not showing these to you because I want you to feel sorry or because I want you to go and give Henderson and King a piece of your mind. But there is a tone that one can use whilst participating on the socials that will get you in a lot of shit and you’ll lose the respect of your peers if you decide to utilize it. Of course, this only matters if you actually value and respect those around you.

I implore you to ignore your ego when it comes to pushing on closed doors. There’s a reason those doors are closed and shackled with the locks of arrogance and ignorance. I don’t claim to be any better than the boys below but I do hope that by seeing this you might not go down the same route as myself or Henderson/King.

We all have our opinions and hills to die on but being an asshole online rarely gets you where you want to go in life or otherwise. If you ever feel like I’m being a dick with my posts or tweets, let me know!

What do you think about the Davidson availability and Mark Fayne debate? Let us know in the comments below.

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The Battle for the Jack Adams: Babcock vs. Torterella vs. McLellan

 

When it comes to NHL awards, it tends to be an uphill climb for any Edmonton Oilers’ player or personnel.  An obvious example was when Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was decisively edged by Gabriel Landeskog in 2011 for the Calder, in spite of having a superior points per game to Landeskog.

Moving forward a few years, the Oilers are enjoying their best season since 2006.  When the wins are counted in May, this could be the Oil’s first 100 point season since 1987.  Now that’s improvement.  And improvement in point totals over the previous year, relative to the team’s potential and expectations, is generally what draws the most consideration for the Jack Adams.

But in spite of the fact that the Oilers are near the top in the most improved category, there is not the slightest acknowledgment in the media that McLellan be considered for the Adams.  And it is clearly unfair.

But to see why it might be unfair, we would need to consider who the early favorites are for the Jack Adams and how what they have done compared to McLellan’s accomplishments in 2017.  To this point Bill Peters in Carolina, Bruce Boudreau with the Wild, John Torterella in CBJ, and Mike Babcock in the big smoke, are the front-runners.  How does McLellan stack up?

Looking at the current standings it’s a little surprising Çane’s head coach Bill Peters is getting any Jack Adams reference.  He does have a low talent team, that lost their heart and soul in Eric Staal.  So based on their improvement, he has, somewhat, made NHL’s version of a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.  However, it’s not a designer one.

The team has slowed down recently and is on pace for 83 points, far from a playoff spot this season, and probably in deep rebuild mode for the next 2 – 3 years.

McLellan’s other competitor for a spot would be Bruce Boudreau.  Bruce has success wherever he has went (just no Stanley Cup) and has taken the Minnesota Wild up a notch.  But has the turnaround been that dramatic?  Boudreau is taking over a team that was already in the playoffs, so there is improvement, however, I’m not sure it’s so dramatic he should supplant McLellan in voting.

Mclellan vs Babcock: Pragmatically speaking, there is no way McLellan can win this battle. But when you look at this contest objectively, far from the haze of T dot, McLellan has the edge in my mind.  Last year the Maple Leafs finished with 69 points, the Oilers 70.  If both teams maintain their current pace, the Oilers will crack the century mark while the leafs will be around 93 points, a number that could have the leafs on the outside looking in come playoff time.  If the leafs do miss the playoffs, that should remove Babcock from best coach consideration.  If that total does see them squeak in, is that really good enough?  The argument for Babcock is how much he’s done with a bunch of rookies.  In reality he has very good stable of young players supported by some solid veterans.  Matthews is not as good as Mcdavid (let’s get that straight), but he is one of the top young players in the league and practically the same age as Mcdavid.  He’s supported by players like James Van Riemsdyk and Nazim Kadri up front, Morgan Reilly and Martin Marincin on the blueline, and a goaltender on the rise in Frederik Andersen.  So he’s really not in a much different position than the Oilers, McLellan has simply done a better job of getting more from what he has.  In my mind Babcock is somewhat over-rated.  The truly great coaches of our time have managed more than one cup, and to this point, Babcock, has not.

The verdict:  The GTA and eastern media will push overwhelmingly for Babcock to win if the Leafs make the playoffs.  If they don’t win the playoffs, it could be a different story, and yet more pouting in Maple Leaf land.

McLellan vs Torterella: The amazing reinvention of John Torterella in nearly unprecedented in NHL history, and, to be fair, if the Columbus Blue Jackets carry on at their current pace, Torts would be the most deserving winner.  Not only for how he rejuvenated the Blue Jackets, but how he has turned his professional career around, which seemed to be on life support.  The team is far from all-star laden and they finished last season with virtually the same position as the Oilers,  So they’ve  gone from nearly worst to almost first in less than a season.  Very impressive.  But in spite of their record challenging win streak, the Columbus Blue Jackets have cooled down considerably.  Do they have the depth to maintain success.

Verdict: Torterella has done a great job but I think he has run out of the magic Kool-Aid he has been feeding his players.  One or two key injuries in the home stretch will allow McLellan to potentially over-take Torterella in team performance.  If the Blue Jackets drop significantly, McLellan’s Jack Adams consideration in relation to Torterella should improve.

So Can it Happen?

If the Maple Leafs continue to improve and come even close to 100 points, Babcock will win this award.  Not because he outright deserves it, but because he lives in hockey’s center of the universe and the GTA media will beat the drum louder and louder until it happens.

As for Torterella, if Columbus continues on their present pace, he deserves the award.  However based on what McLellan has done with the Oilers, and the results on the ice and in the standings, he should be among the last three in consideration.  That perspective is coming from a Oilers fan (me) who thought the Oilers should have kept Todd Nelson on permanently, based on the good work he had done to that point with the team, especially with problem children like Nail Yakupov and Anton Lander.  So I’m not a McLellan fan per se.

But there’s no taking away from the team’s improvement on the ice.  The Oilers needed a dedication to structure and a defensive awareness that allowed offensively talented players to flourish.  And that appears to now be the case.  Now if he can just alter his shoot-out choices I’ll be 100% on board, as should a Jack Adams nod.

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