Does Trevor Zegras’ Immediate Success Make the Broberg Pick a Bad One?

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Lowetide.ca

Philip Broberg

Broberg is viewed by many Oilers fans as “not Trevor Zegras” and while I understand why discerning fans would have been disappointed, there was (and is) enough we don’t know for us to reasonably see how this plays out.
I don’t believe Zegras’ success automatically makes the Broberg pick a poor one. It is not the choice I would have made, but once a team commits to a player by drafting him, it’s important to give that player time to show you what he can bring. I wrote “offense may be shy, but Swedish blue can fool you” and had Oscar Klefbom in mind when writing it.
Perhaps we should give him some time before making a decision on him as a player. Fair?

BLH’s Thoughts: In that draft, I was a very big proponent of Matthew Boldy, an intelligent big-bodied winger with a penchant for scoring goals, and he was drafted by Minnesota at 12th overall. I would’ve taken him over Zegras and Broberg for sure because I felt that the Oilers didn’t have a player like him in their system. Funny thing is, Edmonton picked Dylan Holloway two years ago and I feel like they’re similarly built whereas I have it on good authority that the Oilers really liked defenseman Kaiden Guhle… So in a different universe, maybe things would’ve worked out like my scenario after all…

Personally, I don’t see how Zegras’ early success impacts the Broberg pick in any way, shape, or form. He’s a highly skilled forward that was always going to produce more and find himself on the highlight reels. Broberg was never slated to be that guy despite his Paul Coffey impressions from the 2018 Hlinka-Gretzky.

What you’re going to get is what we saw with Philip when he captained Team Sweden at the 2021 World Juniors. At that tournament, he was so solid defensively and played the role of captain very well. He had a buggered up shoulder and a quadricep tear he was playing through until the coaching staff had to force him to stay off the ice. He’s a warrior, like Klefbom, and once he’s hit his stride, he’ll be an important part of Edmonton’s playoff success.

Oilersnation

Four Encouraging Signs and Areas of Concern for the Oilers thus far

The Power Play
- It’s currently operating at a PP% of 40.8%. The all-time record for PP% is 31.8% by the Montreal Canadiens in 1977-78. In terms of Power Play Goals For/60, Edmonton is currently at 17.3, and no team since 2007 has scored at a rate higher than 12 GF/60.
Continued dominance from Edmonton’s Dynamic Duo
- Although McDavid has had a superb start and seemingly scores a highlight-reel goal every 2nd game, Draisaitl has definitely been Edmonton’s best player thus far in my opinion. I think there’s a legitimate possibility Draisaitl scores 50 goals, or perhaps even more.
Strong play from McDavid and Draisaitl’s surrounding top-six forwards
- Nugent-Hopkins has had a peculiar year; he merely has one goal, yet ranks 2nd in the league with assists and has a total of 19 points in 16 games.
- Jesse Puljuarvi has taken major offensive strides. He’s put up 6 goals and 14 points in 16 games, a pace of roughly 31 goals and 72 points over a full season.
- To add on, there’s no doubt that Zach Hyman has been Edmonton’s best addition this season.
Stuart Skinner
- In the absence of Mike Smith, Stuart Skinner has been nothing short of phenomenal, as he boasts a 0.943 SV%, and has saved 4.68 goals above expected.

BLH’s Thoughts: I love how Skinner is playing right now. He’s looking like an NHL starter and that’s exactly what this team needs with Mike Smith on the IR. He really isn’t giving a lot to the other team’s to work with as the Blackhawks just found out. That’s two games the trot with two or fewer goals against… That’s a nice trend.

The PP is going to be godly as long as Draisaitl and McDavid are on it, so there’s no point in really touching on that.

Edmonton’s top-six wingers compliment their centers perfectly at the moment and when’s the last time you could say that, back in the Doug Weight days?

What’s very interesting is that Dave Tippett has started to use Leon and Nuge on the PK as a pair and Yamo with Derek Ryan or Colton Sceviour. Now, what makes that interesting is now the Oilers have scoring threats on the penalty kill as well as at even strength and the power play… I mean, I can’t remember the last time Edmonton scored two shorties in the same game like they did last night, can you?

AREAS OF CONCERN:

Even Strength
- League-wide, Edmonton ranks 17th in even-strength goal share, and 23rd in expected goal share and high danger chance share.
The Bottom Six
- Last season, not a single team had a worse even-strength goal share without their top three most productive forwards than Edmonton right now (Chicago came close with a GF% of 27.6%).
- If the struggles of the bottom six persist, perhaps moving RNH down to the third line may be the best option.
Darnell Nurse injury
- Although he excelled offensively, I was fairly critical of Nurse’s defensive play last year (only 2% of all players in the league allowed scoring chances against at a higher rate). However, Nurse has been above average defensively this year, as Edmonton allows fewer chances with him on-ice.
- Edmonton will miss him, and I’m very concerned with how Keith will play in his absence.
Overall Defensive Play
- …here’s where the Oilers rank defensively this season league-wide;
  - 19th in Goals Against/60
  - 22nd in Expected Goals Against/60
  - 29th (!) in High Danger Chances Against/60

BLH’s Thoughts: When the bottom-six gets their game together, the defensive and even strength numbers will come together as it did last night because it’s really those six players’ where the team is leaking chances and goals against.

Spector’s Hockey

THE ATHLETIC: In a recent mailbag segment, Josh Yohe was asked if the Pittsburgh Penguins could become sellers at the 2022 trade deadline if they don’t make the playoffs.
- Asked if Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust and Brian Dumoulin could become deadline trade chips if the Penguins were out of contention, Yohe replied he could envision them being available for the right price, especially Rust as he’s eligible to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
PITTSBURGH HOCKEY NOW: Dan Kingerski believes the Penguins need a course correction to snap out of their early-season struggles. He feels they need a right-side defenseman, a scoring winger for Jeff Carter and a spark plug player similar to former Penguins forwards like Patric Hornqvist or Brandon Tanev.
THE ATHLETIC: In a recent mailbag segment, Michael Russo was asked about the future of winger Jordan Greenway. He could be moved before next season to make room for promising wingers like Matthew Boldy and Adam Beckman.
OTTAWA SUN: Earlier this week, Ken Warren speculated over whether the Senators will pursue a trade for a center to replace the sidelined Colin White and Shane Pinto.