All posts by Lindsay Ryall

Born in Edmonton, raised in the pumpkin capital of Canada in rural Ab. and an Oiler fan since their first season.
Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Lindsay Ryall, NHL, Rumors, Trades

How a Drouin Trade Could Affect the Oilers Upgrades

It seems most play-off years a rookie or newish player will be thrust into the spotlight at the right time and this year that player looks to be, Jonathan Drouin.  The Tampa Bay lighting made relatively short work of a team they lost to last year when they had superstar forward Steven Stamkos  in the line-up.  What’s the difference? Obviously the team is playing better together and Drouin is proving to be a driver for that success.  A very interesting situation considering the player asked for a trade this past season, and GM Steve Yzerman was apparently interested in accommodating him.

Back in Edmonton there is a similar theme with at least one high-profile forward likely leaving town.  Edmonton Oiler’s General manager Peter Chiarelli will need to move at least one (likely 2) high-profile top six assets to shore up his defence next season.  If  Yzerman decides to move Drouin in the off-season, a situation of competing assets, (not unlike when the Oilers were rumoured to have offered RNH for Seth Jones) could arise and it wouldn’t help the Oiler’s bargaining position.

At the present time, there are three players that are likely to be marketed for defensive upgrades in the off-season: Nail Yakupov, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jordan Eberle.  Of course Taylor Hall could potentially be added to that list but I personally can’t see Chiarelli trading both first and second overall 2010 picks in his GM employment history.  So how do our current crop of tradeable assets compare to Drouin?  Like most situations, there is a range.

Nail Yakupov: Although Yak is only a couple of years older than Drouin and has better point totals as well as very comparable ppg numbers (.46 to .44 for Drouin), you have to give the edge to Drouin.  His hockey sense is better, he skates better, his junior numbers were better, and he can play both wing and centre.

Head to head edge: It should be closer than it is, but if we were in a competing trade and offering, Yak, the other GM would take Drouin unless it was a plus plus on our end.

Ryan Nugent Hopkins:  The Nuge is an established top six center who is dedicated to his craft and has focussed on playing both ends with equal prowess.  The problem is, at this point he is coming off a bad year and is being pegged by most as a 50 – 60 point player, which puts him in the second-line center spot.  Drouin however has not played enough pro to establish what his potential is, and in the games he’s seen at the NHL level, Drouin still carries first line center potential, maybe even  than the Nuge.

Head to head edge: If Drouin has a strong second series, he could be considered the more favourable asset, in a trade due to his low salary and upside.

Jordan Eberle: Eberle does one thing but he does it very well: score goals.  So Eberle is currently the best on the team (being pushed by McDavid) at putting the puck in the net.  Unfortunately that’s really all he does and when franchises are building playoff teams they need their top six players to contribute at both ends of the ice, as well as check effectively.  nonetheless, scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in the NHL and Ebs is among the best.

Head to head edge: I would think that Eberle has the edge in offensive upside but Drouin has greater flexibility because he can play centre as well as wing.  In Drouin’s favour, his contract is much lighter, and that will make a difference in today’s cap world.

What makes Drouin so attractive as a prospect is his potential.  The NHL already knows (or feels they do) the top end of the Oilers core group, while Drouin has considerable more upside at a lower price.  In the NHL, potential is the alluring opiate that drives every scout into a frenzy and every GM’s toe to tapping.  And to be sure, every member of the organization is looking for that sweet cherry high that happens when they land that player who changes the team, especially if the price is right.

What will Stevie Y do?

It’s difficult to say what Drouin and the Lightning will do in the off-season.  When asked about his long-term future with the club, Drouin’s answer was somewhat cryptic:  In a story that appeared in CBC Sports Drouin commented on returning the lighting organization:

“We’ve talked about the decision to come back here. I think that we’re going to fix this in the summer and see how it goes from there.”

Soooo, does “fix it in the summer” mean he’s going to be moved in the summer?  Or something else?

If Drouin was on the open market he would make for tough competition for what Chiarelli needs to accomplish, especially if both teams were making a pitch making a pitch for a comparable asset.

But despite the rhetoric between both sides I’m hoping Yzerman has the situation well-managed.  He’s done all the right things.  Been patient, avoided a war of words in the media, and put Drouin in position to succeed and feel part of the team again.  I’m guessing he would rather keep Drouin than trade him.  And lets hope so, one the trade rumours had Drouin heading to Anaheim for a young D-man . . . now that wouldn’t be good for the oil.

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects, Rumors, Trades

Nail Yakupov Should Stay

When Nail Yakupov scored what many feel will be his last goal as an Edmonton Oiler, there was a sense he was trying to send a bit of a message.

It’s not often that sub-ten goal scorers pull out that kind of celIy – holstering his hockey stick as if he was a legendary gunslinger.  Yakupov hasn’t pulled out that kind of on-ice swagger since the beginning of the season when he was partnered with McDavid.   So my interpretation of his action is that Yakupov was saying a positive goodbye to Oiler fans. After all his agent has disclosed he approached Oiler’s management for a trade at the deadline and the Oiler’s didn’t object, strangely, telling Larionov to approach other teams to garner interest (according to Larionov)…

At this point all arrows pretty much point to Yak heading out of dodge.  But in spite of all the evidence to the contrary, to me it makes more sense than ever, for now, to keep him.  Why? Taking a pragmatic approach, I can think of a few reasons.

Now is Not the Time to Trade a Depreciated Asset

At this point in Yak’s career, his value is at an all-time low.  What could we possibly get of value at this point?  A second round pick might be a stretch, a first round pick would be a fantasy.  If we were looking for a roster player back, there is little doubt that player would have a laundry list of issues, as would be expected because that’s the type of player going back.  So does it make any sense to give away a former first overall pick for nothing?  There may be interest in the league in attaining Yak’s services, but to be sure, teams won’t be giving up a lot.  According to Peter Chiarelli, there was minimal market interest in Yakupov at the trade deadline.

Inevitable Off-Season Moves Will Leave Holes In The Top Six

While Yak likely doesn’t have the cache to bring back a top four right shot D in a trade, other parts of the core, and their necessary movement, will mean big changes to the team.  At this point I would list our core players on the team moving into next season as follows: Connor Mcdavid, Leon Draisaitl, Brandon Davidson, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, and Cam Talbot.  Everyone else is fair game.  In all likelihood one (possibly two) of the trifecta that includes Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be traded in the off-season.  The most likely moves I would forecast would be RNH and Jordan Eberle, with the goal of bringing back two top four D in exchange (fingers crossed, a top pairing D).  If that were to happen, Benoit Pouliot could be considered part of the package as well.

My observation is McLellan has seen one too many (and there have been lots) of stupid penalties at the wrong time of the game from this player.  So lets say Eberle and Poo are moved in the off-season ( I think Nuge may be spared because of Mclellan’s value on center depth), where does that leave our scoring depth on the wing?  Pretty thin I would say.

How Will We Re-Stock The Top Six Once D Issues Have Been Fixed?

Taking Poo and Ebs out of the line up leaves some obvious holes on wing.  There are some ways to fix this problem, whether its feasible is another issue.  One way is to promote internally.  Maybe Zach Kassian or Iro Pakarainen will respond positively to a promotion?  Well, that is an option, however we’d be lookiing to replace a 100+ points in the top six and I think that’s beyond a stretch for any pair being promoted internally within the Oiler’s roster.

Another option would be through the draft.  At this point the Oilers are in a position to draft one of two high-octane flying Finns in Patrick Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi.  There is a good chance one of these two players could step into the lineup immediately and be productive.  However, there is an even better chance one of these 18-year-old rookies could show inconsistency, leading to more offensive struggles for the Oilers.

One more alternative is free agency.  Re-stocking the wing is far easier to do than re-loading on the blueline.  Peter Chiarelli traded for Loui Erickson once before and he will have the chance to acquire him again this year in the off-season via free agency.  But I don’t believe there will be only one spot to fill once the dust settles and all the moves have been made to reinforce the D.  I believe there will be more than one spot on the top six that needs to be filled.  And ultimately, when you go to free agency, you rarely get value.  So wouldn’t a better move be to keep Yak on the roster, in reserve? He’s on a value contract and can play either wing. It makes a lot of sense.

Would It Make Sense Bringing Yak Back?

The biggest risk in bringing Yak back is that we might see more of the same uncoachable, moody, and inconsistent play.  But it’s not too far of a stretch to consider Yak starting the season on a line with McDavid and Maroon, just the way he finished it, yielding good results.  And if no refs decide to tackle him mid-season leading to a pro-longed injury stretch, you can take a career year to the bank, and I don’t believe that’s an unreasonable proposition at all.

To this point Yak has pointed to his lack of icetime for his lack of success.  In fairness, he has spent some time on the top lines, but consistency has eluded him and demotions soon followed.  Imagine if players line Eberle, Hall, and Draisaitl were demoted in the same manner when they slumped this past season?  Yak has had his share of opportunities and if the Oilers make the number of moves they will likely need to in the off-season, it may make sense to give him another shot.  Who knows, the Oiler fans may see Yak strut his celly next year for one more season.

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors

No Hamonic, No Problem!

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Could one of these fellas be on the move to shore up the blue line this summer?

Proposing an Oilers Trade That Makes Sense

There was a time not that long ago when landing coveted top pairing defenceman, Travis Hamonic, was a real possibility for the Edmonton Oilers.  Hamonic’s desired trade destination, Winnipeg, had its hands full signing hulking D-man/power forward Dustin Byfuglien, and if they lost him to free agency, the Jets wouldn’t have the D assets to trade.

But then, somewhat surprisingly, the Jets and Byfuglien came to terms, leaving the Oilers in a much weaker bargaining position.

If Byfuglien hadn’t signed, there is a chance the Islanders would have taken one of the Oilers core forwards (likely RNH or Eberle) for Hamonic.  But ideally, Garth Snow would like a defenceman. (If he’s giving up a defenceman), and with big Buff locked up, Winnipeg now has defensive assets to deal: one of Jacob Trouba or Tyler Myers should do fine.  So while no deal has been done as yet, and likely won’t be done until draft day or later, the Jets and Islanders are likely trading partners . . . or are they?  Or should they be?

The question Jet’s GM Kevin Cheveldayoff should be asking is: are the Islanders the best trading partner for what his team needs? Recently the Oiler’s visited the Jets on the tail end of a road trip and squeezed out a 2 – 1 victory.  This doesn’t sound so bad except when you contrast it with the fact the Jets could only manage one goal against one of the worst defences in the league.  A defence where maybe two of the six defencemen dressed that night would be regulars on any other NHL team.The Jet’s scoring issues have been compounded by the loss of their captain Andrew Ladd and while they have a ton of talent in the pipe, that may not translate into immediate scoring help.

So if you’re Winnipeg, and you have a surplus of right shot D (currently Byufglien, Trouba, and Myers are all righties), and you need to make room for 2013 WJC standout Josh Morissey, plus your team has trouble burying the biscuit, what makes more sense?  Moving a major asset like Trouba to bring a native son home?  Or, moving that same asset to bring in some proven scoring?

And that’s where the Edmonton Oilers come in. The Oilers have lamented for years over missing out on skilled american rearguard Jacob Trouba.  Who knew the seventh defenceman chose in the 2012 draft could develop into its best blueliner?  Maybe even the best player.  But that’s the way the draft rolls. Normally Trouba would be considered untouchable but he’s having an off-year and stamping his feet for a huge raise (said to be in the are of $6.5M AAV as he heads to RFA status) and that has no doubt sent some enquiries to Jets GM Kevin Chevaldayoff.  And one of those GM’s likely inquiring, is our own Pete Chiarelli.

So what is the realistic ask for a player like Trouba?  He’s not a proven #1 like Pietrangelo or Doughty but he’s well on his way.

As the above stats indicate he rates as a top pairing defenceman in the majority of categories, but not every category.  The chart seems to indicate he could work on his passing, not something I’ve noticed when watching him, and likely something that would improve when playing with a more skilled forward core.  At any rate, Trouba is a significant upgrade over any RHD we currently have.

The Oilers could offer current number 3 center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but with Sheifele and Little producing well in the middle, there is little doubt which player the Jets would want in return, or more accurately the one that fills they scoring void best: Jordan Eberle.

Eberle is also coming off a sub par season, mostly due to injuries, but on a season when he’s healthy and feeling his oats, he’s a 25 – 30 goal, 65 – 70 point guy, and the Jets don’t have one of those in their line-up.  Making a trade with the Oilers makes perfect sense. The Jets are able to deal from a strength to shore up a weakness.  Additionally Eberle has a bit of an admiration society in Winnipeg, mostly due to his heroics in the 2008 World Junior Championships.  There is little doubt he would be welcomed with open arms.

But from the Oilers’ perspective, would this trade be an imbalanced one?  Trouba is still finding his potential and with his contract demands and shows signs of being a problem child (combined wih whispers of late night bad boy behaviour) is this a trade the Oilers will regret?  Potentially, yes.  But it’s a risk the Oilers should take and the contract concerns about Trouba can be explained away as pre-negotiation positioning.  Trouba’s antics likely indicate he does want a trade, but not necessarily to an American team.  More than likely he wants the opportunity to be unchallenged on right side and put up some points that will translate into a big pay-day.  In Winnipeg he’s intermittently playing behind Byfuglien, and that won’t help him pad his stats.  As for whispers of bad behaviour, at this point they’re only whispers, and the Oilers have a strong and recent track record of getting that type of player back on track.

Now circling back to Eberle, the Oilers would need to find a way to replace the 20 – 30 goals he provides and that would be a challenge.  Scoring is the hardest thing to do in hockey, and Eberle does it better than anyone else on the Oilers.  Not to mention the fact the Oilers actually score fewer goals per game than most teams, including Winnipeg.  But considering the scoring value Eberle provides, the harsh reality is the production of a scoring winger can be replaced with far greater ease than a top pairing defenceman.  And lordy the Oilers know this better than anyone.  David Perron, for example was coming off a 30 goal campaign when he was traded for mid first round pick.  This same pick, and more, was traded for defensive prospect Griffin Reinhart, who ended up spending most of the season in the minors.  Sounds like giving up a lot for not a lot to me.  And should the Oilers look to free agency or elsewhere to find a replacement for Eberle, the best available would likely be lining up for the opportunity to play with Mcdavid and be a part of the magic.  So While losing Eberle would hurt, the pain would go away quicker than the chronic migraines that come from watching a sub-par D.

Is a Trouba For Eberle Trade Too Remote?

Winnipeg Jets GM: Kevin Cheveldayoff

There is no doubt this player swap is a bit of a stretch.  But hey, at 5’7″ stretch is my middle name. Realistically the biggest obstacle to this trade is Jets GM Chevaldayoff and his unwillingness to take calculated risks.  If Chevy was very creative he could swap Trouba for Eberle, and then Myers plus (prospect or pick) for Hamonic.  However, in Cheveldayoff’s five years as GM he has made only two trades that involved players trading places, and he only made those trades (Kane, Ladd) because he had to.  The guy is like Steve Tambelini on steroids when it comes to methodical indecisiveness.  Nonetheless, a Trouba-Eberle trade does make sense for both teams.  For the Oilers it would be a shame to miss out on Seth Jones, and possibly Hamonic or a potenital opportunity with Trouba.  Lets hope Chiarelli can make the most of what is left out there for young right hand D with promise.

We released our very own podcast late last night. The first episode of #ASKBLH went live around 12:30 am. Check it out below and let us know what you think in the comments. And if you dig it, share and subscribe!

Thx!

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Ducks vs Oilers Preview

More California Dreaming

Anders Nilsson, Photo Courtesy of Andy Devlin.

 

Before last night’s game I made the bold prediction of an Oiler victory against one of the leagues’ top teams.  I made that prediction based on what I thought would be push back resulting from a coach calling out his team. Turns out I was only partially right as the team did play well, but still lost.  Oh well. Unfortunately for tonight I have no such bold predictions.

Time for a goalie rotation

The Oilers coaching staff are not taking any chances in this back to back series and why would they.  “The Ders” (aka Anders Nilsson) is due for a return to the line-up and he did play well in his brief conditioning stint down in Cali.  If the Oilers are able to compete with Anaheim’s offensive game progressing nicely, Nilsson will need to return to his “Andre the Giant” form.

Writer’s correction: Contrary to earlier reports, it seems Cam Talbot will be in net for the Oilers.  Why the change?  Could be trade, could be the flu.  We’ll have wait and see.

Who’s hot . . . er, I mean playing decent

As a team, the Oiler forwards generated a healthy amount of grade A scoring chances in their game against the kings last night.  If it weren’t for some bad luck and some world-class goaltending by Johnathan Quick, the Oiler’s may have come away with the win, or at least a point.

Who’s not

Based on last night’s game, there were no obvious passengers on the Oiler’s bus last night (Justin Schultz wasn’t playing), but unfortunately the execution was not there (as already noted).  If the same effort is duplicated tonight, there is a chance for success.

What about Anaheim?

Like their California neighbours, the Ducks are rounding nicely into playoff form with not only their offence, but their defence peaking at the right time.   In their last game, ducks goalie Frederik Andersen got the shutout in a 1 – 0 victory over the Buffalo Sabres.  If Anaheim decides to run and gun, the Oilers may have a chance.  If they go to shutdown mode we may be looking at a sequel of last night.

Tonight’s not so bold prediction

The Ducks do play a pseudo run and gun game with the Oilers but the orange and blue do not quite keep up.  With the score 3 -3 in the third, the Ducks get the go ahead goal and an empty netter in the final third seconds.

Trade Watch

At this time there has been no trade of either Justin Schultz or Ted Purcell, but it looks like it will be just a matter of time based on the reasons listed for both being out of the lineup last night.

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NHL

Oilers vs Kings Preview – How Low Can We Go

Logic Says Another Loss, but it says here . . .

It’s been some time since the Edmonton Oilers have pulled off a “W” against what has become a burgeoning playoff bound juggernaut, the Los Angeles Kings.  When did the Oiler’s last come out on top?  To be exact that was November 3, 2011 and since then the competition between the two clubs has been decidedly lopsided, with the Oiler’s going 1 – 14 – 3 since that last glimmer of success.  At this point in the season, is there in real reason to believe tonight’s game will be different (especially based on last game’s performance).  But if you’re in a mood for reaching (and I’ve drank enough kool-aid to start turning purple)

Heading into tonight’s game – Who’s hot

You could count the number of Oiler’s playing well on one hand, and here they are.  18 year-old phenom Connor McDavid continues to score at a better than point per game pace while Jordan Eberle is capably riding shotgun.  On the blue line Brandon Davidson is making a case for being the Oiler’s most consistent defenseman (consistently good that is ) .  He’ll be needed to stop the cycle against the puck possession monsters that are the LA Kings .

 

. . . Who’s Not

You could throw a dart at the Oiler’s roster and odds are you would hit a player performing at the bottom of their game.  The obvious one would be Schultz but by my observation, he’s already packed it in, so I’m not expecting much.  As for the rest of the team, Hall and Draisaitl have inched upwards, but they can do a lot better.  Look for big games from both.  In the net Talbot has come down a little bit to mortality over the last few games.  The team will need a superman effort if they are going to be successful so look for a moderate rebound from the Oiler netminder.

What’s happening in LA?

Surprise, surprise, newly minted LA forward Anze Kopitar is on fire with five goals in his last five games, and he has averaged better than a point per pane against the Oilers.   Johnathan Quick also has his game intact and is well prepared for a game of frustrating the Oilers’ forwards.  Overall the Kings are on their game which means the Oiler’s forwards will be challenged to score two goals.

Tonight’s Prediction

It may defy rational logic, but I’m going to pick the Oiler’s to snap out of their losing streak against the Kings tonight and here’s why.

Response to the coach:  McLellan has clearly reached his boiling point as reflected in his frank and direct statements after the Ottawa game.  If there is going to be a player response, now is the time.  Look for all the top six to play at the top of their game as well as Sekera, Fayne,  Davidson, and Nurse.

LA Played last night: Playing a team on the second of a back to back is always a bonus and the Kings had a hard fought 2 – 1 win against Calgary last night.  Hopefully that has wore them down somewhat and its enough to give the Oil a chance.

The Odds are in our favour?: With the amount of games that have passed without a win, we are due for win.  It’s a reach, but its something.

Cam will be the man:  Mr. Talbot is due for a big game and this may just be the one.  He hasn’t played bad per se, but it he may steal one for us.

Where to catch the game:

You can catch the game at SN360 at 8:30 or listen to the game on 6:30 ched.