All posts by NHL Draft Talk

Brennen York, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects

7 – Philadelphia Flyers

The Philadelphia Flyers aren’t far off from being a playoff team. Jakub Voracek is coming off a career high 81 points, and captain Claude Giroux, though he didn’t have a bad season, is looking to bounce back to be that 80+ point player we know he is. Aside from Giroux and Voracek, the Flyers look at Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn, and Wayne Simmonds for scoring. They have some good pieces, but still need to add a few players to the fold if they’re going to be competitive. On the back end, the Flyers are deep in terms of prospects as well as left handed defencemen like Mark Streit, Andrew Macdonald, and Nicklas Grossman. There will be trades made as Hextall and Co. are up against the cap quite closely, meaning prospects like Sam Morin and Shayne Gostisbehere may see their day in the NHL sooner than later. Defence isn’t a weakness for the Flyers, but they due lack that true top pairing potential defenceman. With Sanheim, and the aforementioned Morin and Ghost, already in the system, the Flyers do have the ability to go with a forward this year. There will be a few options available at 7 including the likes of Pavel Zacha, Mathew Barzal, and Mikko Rantanen. Scouts seem to have differing views on Pavel Zacha, the argument being that he’s far too inconsistent to be a top 10 player. Mikko Rantanen, on the other hand, has only trended up. Rantanen’s 6’4 frame, along with his history of playing against men in Liiga, it wouldn’t be outlandish to suggest he may be able to crack a roster spot as early as next year. It’ll be a crazy day for the Flyers, especially if they decide to make some deals on the 26th.

Draft Day Gameplan

– Shed cap. Grossman, L. Schenn, Macdonald, Streit, and now Medvedev are eating up a lot of salary on the back end.

– Don’t take a gamble at 7. If a guy like Provorov or Hanifin have slipped, grab the BPA.

– Through rounds 2-7 go after forwards. The depth chart on the back end is loaded,

– Consider Samsonov at 29. Behind Mason, there’s no real A grade prospect.

Flyers Big Board (Without McEichel)

1. Mitchell Marner
2. Noah Hanifin
3. Dylan Strome
4. Ivan Provorov
5. Mikko Rantanen
6. Pavel Zacha
7. Mathew Barzal
8. Zach Werenski
9. Lawson Crouse
10. Denis Guryanov

Who do they take?

Could go any way for the Flyers. In my opinion it’ll be BPA, so in the range would be Provorov, Rantanen, Barzal, or Zacha. If it were me making the pick, and Provorov/Hanifin were gone, I’d take Mikko Rantanen, but Barzal would be heavily considered.

Darkhorse?

At 7 there’s too many sure fire prospects to be able to list a dark horse here, but if I were considering anyone outside the top 10 at this point then Timo Meier and Denis Guryanov would be at the top of the list.

Brennen York, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects

8 – Columbus Blue Jackets

The Blue Jackets are building something special. Not only are the cupboards stocked full with elite prospects in Bjorkstrand, Rychel, Milano; they also have some of their most valuable youngsters in Wennberg and Dano playing a big role on the Jackets. GM Jarmo Kekalainen has only been on the job for about two and a half seasons, but during that time has built a nice core around top line pivot Ryan Johansen. With veterans like Hartnell, Foligno, Tyutin, and now David Clarkson, CBJ prospects have a great leadership core to feed off of. The only issue facing the Jackets is their lack of defensive depth. After the departure of James Wisniewski and the fact that Mike Reilly has chosen to walk, it’s clear the Jackets need to do something to address their blue line. With a deep pool of prospects, a trade is always possible, but if the Jackets are looking at continuing the trend of building through the draft you’d have to think that – much like the Avs and Sharks – they are looking at acquiring a potential top pairing defenceman in one of Werenski, Provorov, or Hanifin. In a case where four forwards are selected with the first four picks, there’s a scenario where the Jackets look at moving up to 5 or 6 in order to grab one of Hanifin or Provorov. They have enough depth at forward where moving a player like Bjorkstrand, Rychel, Anderson, or even Milano are trade options. The name Mikko Rantanen has been tossed around a lot as well, mainly due to the fact he of Finnish descent. Rantanen is a good player, he just doesn’t seem to be a great fit given the amount of forwards already in the organization. In my opinion, it’s defence or trade for the Jackets and it’ll be a very interesting day for Jarmo and all CBJ fans.

Draft Day Gameplan

– Bring in a defenceman via trade. Whether you move out Rychel, Milano, or Bjorkstrand, a defenceman has to be on his way to Ohio.

– If there’s a deal for Dansk consider it. Bob’s not giving up the crease any time soon, so if there’s a deal for a 2nd rounder or defenceman, take it.

– There’s enough high end talent, look for guys like Knott or Dergachyov in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.

– Go heavy on defence. There’s a good amount of defence scattered throughout the draft, don’t be afraid to grab around 5 of them.
Jackets Big Board (Without McEichel)

1. Noah Hanifin
2. Ivan Provorov
3. Dylan Strome
4. Mitchell Marner
5. Zach Werenski
6. Mikko Rantanen
7. Pavel Zacha
8. Mathew Barzal
9. Lawson Crouse
10. Jakub Zboril

Who do they take?

There’s a good chance that Zach Werenski is still on the board at 8 so he’d be the obvious pick. Don’t be surprised if the Jackets are picking somewhere other than 8 though, as they are in dire need of defence who can step into the NHL next season.

Darkhorse?

Two names come to mind when I look at darkhorses and the Jackets. Denis Guryanov and Oliver Kylington. Both have huge upside but also come with a bit of risk. Kylington the more likely pick in my opinion.

Brennen York, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects

Who knows where they’ll go.. Risers and Fallers

Whether it’s Jakub Vrana rising to 13, or Ivan Barbashev falling out of the first round, one thing is for certain; the NHL entry draft can go any way imaginable.

There’s no way to predict the first round with 100% accuracy, and there’s a few factors that play into why that’s not possible. First off, teams have vastly different draft lists. This was evident in 2013 when the Sharks traded away their 20th pick along with a second rounder in order to get a player whom many believed would still be there at 20. Did they make the right call in jumping up and grabbing Mirco Mueller? That’s still up for debate, but as for now he’s looking like a top 15 guy from that year. Another large factor that plays into the rise and fall of a prospect is the information that comes out mere days before the draft. Though lists are finalized prior to the draft, the investigation doesn’t stop until the team finally drafts the player. The hockey world is small, and information can be easy to attain given you have the proper credentials and networks.

This year is full of players who have the potential to go anywhere from the first to fourth round. That’s a huge gap, but when you look at players like Ryan Pilon, Dennis Yan, and Nicholas Roy, you can see why different services and independent scouts have these guys ranked all over the place. It would be quite surprising to see a player like Pilon drop into the 4th, and though I’m not a fan of his, there’s something to be said for projects with potential.

Now looking at the possible risers or fallers who are ranked in the first few rounds, there are a few names that stick out:

Risers

– Denis Guryanov: The speedy Russian winger wowed scouts at the U-18’s. He showed his ability to be a burner on the outside and wasn’t afraid to drive the net. He’s a fiery guy who has good offensive capabilities. He’s ranked in the top 10 by The Redline Report, and could very well be a top 10 pick.

– Colin White: Much like Guryanov, White had a very impressive showing at the U-18’s. At the beginning of the season, White was a consensus top 10 player, but after a rocky start he saw his stock begin to slide. He wasn’t a point per game player this season, but still put up an impressive 71 points in 74 games (USHL and USDP combined) I would love to see a team take him in the top 14.

– Jacob Larsson: It’s not so much the fact he played 20 games in the SHL, rather the points he put up in the U20 program are more than impressive for this 6’2 left shot defender. Larsson has an underrated physical edge to his game but by no means is he a stay at home defenceman. He’s a brutish, two way offensive defenceman. Many services have him around 30, but in my opinion he’s a top 25 guy.

– Jansen Harkins: I fell in love with Jansen Harkins during a preseason game in St. Albert, Alberta, when he went dad to head with Adam Musil. Not only does he have elite playmaking ability, he thinks the game at another level. It was clear this season he was the best Cougar, and in terms of an NHL career I believe he will be able to fill in a second line center spot.

– Jake Debrusk: I believe it to be true that Jake Debrusk watched his father at an early age and decided to do the complete opposite. Though the fiery nature of Louie lives inside of him, Jake adopted the pure offensive side of the game from somewhere else. He put up an impressive 42 goals for Swift, and after playing in the Top Prospects game, returned with a ton of confidence. If there’s going to be an unexpected riser into the top 15, its Jake.

Other notable risers include Noah Juulsen, Vince Dunn, Filip Ahl, Julius Nattinen, Parker Wotherspoon, Christian Jaros, and Nikita Korostelev.

Fallers

– Lawson Crouse: I’m a fan of his game and hope all the best for Lawson in the future, but the boom or bust potential is there. We’ve seen power forwards who were taken early before wash out rather quickly, and it’s possible Crouse suffers the same fate. Personally, I like Crouse, and I think his stats tell an interesting story.

– Kyle Connor: Some services have Connor ranked as high as 5 but I really don’t see it. Like Crouse, Connor’s stats are intriguing. I’ve looked into it a bit, and though I can’t claim to have done a ton of research on the subject, I couldn’t find a USHL player who put up numbers as good as his in the past 5 years. He’s a bit of a wildcard and it will be interesting to see where he goes.

– Paul Bittner: I’ve been high on Bittner all season, but he has shown some signs that leave me second guessing him. He has a lot of raw tools like size, defensive ability, and skating, but the inconsistency he’s shown is a bit of a red flag. Some people, including myself have said he looks like the next Max Pacioretty, but in order for that to come to fruition he has to do what he does best on a more consistent basis.

– Jakub Zboril: Throughout the season Zboril has seen a good chunk of among the top half of the first round prospects. He brings a sort of nastiness scouts and GM’s love. The one thing I have a problem with is when he’s labelled an offensive defenceman. He did put up 33 points this season, but doesn’t necessarily have elite offensive instincts. He’s a mean two way defenceman, who will be an NHL’er, but may not bring the offence many hope for.

– Gabriel Carlsson: Though I do see Carlsson going near where he is projected (30-40ish) I think he’s a guy who could fall a bit further, possibly into the 50’s. He didn’t have a bad season, in fact I was rather impressed that he saw time in the SHL, but the fact that he’s projecting to be a stay at home defenceman. It’s possible he ends up similar to a Dennis Seidenberg, but in today’s NHL, I believe it’s safer to go after good puck moving D who can jump up in the rush.

A few other potential fallers to keep an eye out for are Nicholas Roy, Travis Dermott, Jordan Greenway, Guillaume Brisebois, Graham Knott, Vladislav Gavrikov, and Ryan Pilon.

There’s a few notable players who have a large trajectory in terms of where they could go. Some, such as Barzal in the first round could go anywhere from pick 4 to pick 14. Here’s a few guys to watch for who fall into the “wildcard” category.

Wildcards

– Mathew Barzal: After an injury plagued season, Barzal showcased his skill at the U-18’s putting up an impressive 12 points in 7 games. Barzal is an offensive catalyst who can pass the puck like few others in the league. He sees the ice extremely well, and in my opinion is poised to dominate as a 19 year old. At the next level, he’s a really good second line center who may push for the number one spot, similar to Logan Couture.

– Yevgeni Svechnikov: The nearly 6’4 Russian forward burst out of the gate during his first year in North America and finished up with 78 points in 55 games. He needs some work on his defensive play, and maybe needs to find a way to keep himself engaged for all 60 minutes, but Svechnikov has some great tools to work with. He takes pride in his shooting as he has a deadly one timer, and his ability to get into open space means he’s usually able to get a few on net each game. He’s usually listed as a left wing, but he did play the majority of the season on the right side, and ended the year at center.

– Brock Boeser: The Waterloo winger had a good campaign offensively recording 68 points in 57 games. He’s committed to North Dakota for next season and should be nearly a point per game as a freshman. He’s drawn comparisons to Patrick Sharp, primarily due to his ability to hold his own in the defensive end. He’s not a defensive player by any stretch, but rarely does he make a mistake in his own end. His best tool, like Svechnikov, is his shot. He can beat goalies at point blank range and that’s reflected on his stats page as he put up 35 goals. At the NHL level, I see a bit of a Beau Bennett curve. A very good third liner who can be a second line player.

– Oliver Kylington: No one has slipped this season like Oliver. A consensus top 5 pick at the beginning of the year, Kylington fell consistently month to month. He has all the tools, they’re just not put together. For a team looking at a project with extreme upside, look no further. He skates like the wind and sees the ice extremely well. His defensive zone coverage, though highly criticized, isn’t as bad as many say. He does need some work putting all of his tools together, and rounding out his game, so a team like Tampa Bay may be the best fit.

– Brandon Carlo: For the majority of the year Carlo sat in the 20th to 24th spot for most services. It was only recently we began to see him fall out of the top 30. Though many services and scouts have him out of the top 30 in terms of rankings, he’s almost always gone in the first round when you look at mock drafts. He’s 6’5, nearly 200 pounds. With a frame like that you have to consider him an option no matter where you’re drafting. Though he could fall to 35 maybe even 40, I could see him being the surprise of the draft and going in the top 20.

Other wildcards include Travis Konecny, Timo Meier, Daniel Sprong, Anthony Beauvillier, Alexander Dergachyov, Matthew Spencer, Conor Garland, Rodrigo Abols and Erik Cernak.

And finally, a player who may be a riser, may fall, and is definitely the most highly debated prospects: Jeremy Bracco. I have to admit, I have absolutely zero clue where he may end up. He has the skill and skating ability to be a top 15 pick, but the size is such a glaring issue. You have to take a step back and look at the success he’s had at every single level and ask yourself “why not the NHL?” Bracco tore apart the USDP this season, stole the show at the U-18s with the tournament winning assist, and even put up 32 points in 24 USHL games (also a +20 which is odd, but says a lot). The Boston College commit has dominated offensively at every level he’s played at, so he may very well be the gem of the draft. I feel as though a team already deep in prospects (Anaheim, Tampa Bay, or Winnipeg) NEED to take a shot on Bracco as he could be an offensive dynamo for years to come.

Brennen York, NHL, NHL Entry Draft

9 – San Jose Sharks

The San Jose Sharks find themselves in a rather unique situation comparative to years past. After missing the playoffs, as well as the perceived controversy in both the locker room and front offices, it’s safe to say the Sharks are ready to make a few changes. They already have some good young pieces in Mirco Mueller, Nikolay Goldobin, Tomas Hertl, and Matt Nieto, but they’re still a few pieces away from a rebuilt top six. One positive they have going for them is 26 year old pivot Logan Couture. Having a player like Couture alleviates some of the stress associated with finding a top 6 center. After making the rocky relationship between management and Jumbo known to the public, It’s possible he may have seen his last home game in the Shark Tank. Others who are rumoured to be on the block include Patrick Marleau and Brent Burns. Throw in Pavelski and Vlasic, and we could see a full on rebuild. As for the 9th pick, there’s a few directions they may end up going. Mathew Barzal’s name has been tossed around, however I don’t believe he’d be a good fit. Much like the Avs, the Sharks defensive depth is suspect, but the answer lies with Zach Werenski. Perhaps it would be in the best interest of both the Avs or the Sharks to move up because the chances of Werenski making it past the Jackets are very low.

Draft Day Gameplan

– Acquire a top 15 pick. Stars and Panthers may have interest in Burns/Pavelski.

– Move Joe Thornton for best possible return. A first (likely late) plus a good prospect may get it done.

– Address the crease. The Sharks do have a decent amount of forward prospects, so moving picks for a goalie like Talbot would be smart.

– Look at moving up. If Hanifin/Provorov falls, look to get in the top 7.

Sharks Big Board (Without McEichel)

1. Dylan Strome
2. Noah Hanifin
3. Ivan Provorov
4. Mitchell Marner
5. Zach Werenski
6. Mikko Rantanen
7. Pavel Zacha
8. Mathew Barzal
9. Lawson Crouse
10. Kyle Connor

Who do they take?

With the Jackets poised to grab a defenceman, it’s unlikely one of the big 3 make it past pick 8. If they’re looking at forwards, Barzal, Crouse, even Yevgeni Svechnikov would be good options. When it comes down to it, Lawson Crouse is the guy they go with.

Darkhorse?

In a year where the first round is as deep as it is, it’s hard to pick out a real “dark horse” per say, but two names I’d keep an eye on are Jansen Harkins of the Prince George Cougars as well as Everett’s Noah Juulsen.

Brennen York, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects

10 – Colorado Avalanche

With a mere 10 days remaining until Peter Chiarelli announces Connor McDavid’s name as the newest Oiler, I’ll take some time to look at the top 10 teams and their game plan heading into the draft.

The Colorado Avalanche do not necessarily have a plethora of young prospects in the pipeline, but by no means do they lack elite, young talent. In the past six or so years, the management core has assembled a unique group of forwards which includes the likes of Nathan Mackinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, and Ryan O’Reilly. The top 6, for the most part, is in place, however they could still use a right winger to play alongside future superstar Nathan Mackinnon. Where the Avs lack depth and upside is on the blue line. Sure, they would love to grab a guy like Noah Hanifin or Ivan Provorov, but that’s not happening without a bit of an overpayment. Luckily for the Avs, this draft is littered with solid defensive prospects after Provorov and Hanifin, which leads me to the most likely target for the Sakic and Co. University of Michigan defenceman Zach Werenski had a monster season this year, leading the Michigan blueline as a freshman. He also chipped in an impressive 25 points, and played a big role on the USA World Junior squad. With Barrie and Johnson locking down the right side, a future with Bigras and Werenski patrolling the left side may mean a deadly top four in Denver. If, however, the likely scenario occurs in which Werenski is taken in the 6-9 range, the Avs will have a pile of forward prospects who are rype for the picking.

Draft Day Gameplan

– Use the 10 overall pick. If the big 3 D are gone, my list would have Rantanen at the top, followed by Meier, Zacha, and Crouse.

– Avoid any trade that involves bringing in Dion Phaneuf. There will surely be a lot of talk around bringing him in, but he’s a guy you don’t want around that young core.

– Address the lack of forward depth by drafting offensive minded players in rounds 3 and 4, such as Korostelev, Speers, Trenin, and Gagne

– Pick 40 has to be solid. I’d avoid centers, but BPA is never a bad option. Keep an eye on Fischer, Dunn, and Senyshyn.

All in all, I would avoid making any major deals unless you’re bringing in a defenceman in the Josi/OEL stratosphere.

Avs Big Board (Without McEichel)

1. Noah Hanifin

2. Mitchell Marner

3. Ivan Provorov

4. Dylan Strome

5. Zach Werenski

6. Mikko Rantanen

7. Timo Meier

8. Pavel Zacha

9. Lawson Crouse

10. Yevgeni Svechnikov

Who do they take?

I find it unlikely that Werenski and Rantanen will remain, so you have to look at Timo Meier and Pavel Zacha. If it comes down to that, Pavel Zacha is the guy.

Darkhorse pick?

The Colorado Avalanche are in a spot where they could reach a bit, but if I’m choosing a true dark horse in this spot, it would be Jacob Larsson.