Category Archives: Lindsay Ryall

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Lindsay Ryall, NHL

Upgrading The Oilers D, and Keeping it Real

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Forget about Weber, time for a pragmatic option

For as long as Shea Weber has been in the league there has been a constant chant by Edmonton Oilers fans that the Oiler’s GM waive some magical wand and bring over Shea Weber, or Brent Seabrook, or Duncan Keith . . .

Sadly none of these players are available now, nor will they ever be.  The Oiler’s future top pairing are named Nurse and Klefbom, but unfortunately they haven’t matured to a top pairing D just yet and need real support.  Defense by committee is an option (maybe the only one) but the Oiler’s D need real top 4 defenders,  not pretenders: see Nikitin, Ference, and Fayne.

So what can we do?  There are only a couple of teams flush with defencemen and in need of what we can offer.  The Winnipeg Jets have plenty of D on the roster but aren’t likely to give up any quality.  A likely D man we could pry out?  Likely Toby Enstrom who is on the wrong side of 30, not that physical, not overly offensive, and with a hefty salary.  So where else could we look?

Next best target: Nashville.  Weber again?  Nope, most have given up on that fantasy.  Seth Jones . . . wrong again.  Not enough whiskey in Nashville to impair the judgement of Nashville’s GM into that mistake.  Dare to dream, but it won’t happen.  The realistic target should be fourth year pro, Ryan Ellis.

Although Ellis is relatively deep on Nashville’s defense chart, there is plenty to be excited about when it comes to this 24 year-old rearguard.  Ironically, the Oilers could have had Ellis for free back in the 2009 draft, but instead chose to draft the now long departed Magnus Paajarvi.  Ellis was a prolific scorer in junior, but many prospects are.  It’s his work as a pro that makes him a coveted blue-liner.  Ellis split 2011 -12/2011 – 13 between the farm team and the big club and continued to produce along the way.  In his first full season with the Nashville Predators he scored a respectable 27 points (6g, 21a, +9) in 80 games.  Last year he scored the same number of points in only 58 games and has continued to produce this year with four points in 7 games and plus 2.  And what about his underlying stats?  His Corsi for was an acceptable 50.3 in 2013 – 14 and very good 54.5 last season.

The catch with Ellis is his size.  He’s 5’10 and 180lbs, which is definitely undersized as NHL players go, not to mention NHL defenseman.  But there are success stories.  You only have to look to Minnesota Wild’s Jared Spurgeon (5’9, 176lbs.) to see an example of a d-man who can survive (even thrive) in the western conference.

Looking at Ellis’ game, he’s not only blessed with good hockey sense, but is surprising physical.  In one memorable moment last season he stood up former junior teammate Taylor Hall when he was in the middle of one of his unnecessary toe drags.

Clearly he plays bigger than his size.   And as noted, all that Ellis has accomplished at this stage has come playing 4/5 (15 minutes a game) on a star-studded blue line.  Which begs the question: what could he do on a talent starved blueline in Edmonton?  As most have observed, Edmonton’s forwards are suffering from a blueline deficient of a D-man who can make the outlet pass at pace, or who has a bruising slaphot.  Ellis can provide both.  He has character, and the Oilers could use more of it.

So Who Do We Trade to Get Him?

Ok now, before everyone dusts off their pitchforks, hear me out on this one.  The realistic ask for Ellis would be Nail Yakupov.  We could pitch a high pick, some prospects, but that likely won’t be sufficient. Unfortunately now that Nail has gained some value, it’s time to trade him, and here’s why.

We all love Nail for his work ethic, charisma, and energy.  But what is his real upside?  It’s not a ppg player which he currently is.  What would his point total be this season if his centre was Anton Lander, instead of Connor Mcdavid?  Even in a top 6 role with a very capable centre (not named Mcdavid) his best production would be 20ísh goals and 50 points.  And that’s good, but it is a position that can be filled.  As for the ongoing disaster that is our current d-corps . . . Not so much.

Would Nashville Be on Board?

Ellis is not being shopped right now.  The Predators have drafted him, developed him, and are reaping this rewards of his productive play at $2.5M per season.  But they are always challenged offensively.  As a result there is a real possibility Nashville could be open to a trade for Nail on the premise he could bring more scoring to their team.  And it’s likely he would, it’s just not likely he would bring as much as they would like.

Are the Ask and Return Unequal?

Maybe, but all things are relative.  And at this time the urgency is doing something about the D.  Most would suggest the target on Nashville should be Seth Jones, not Ryan Ellis.  And of course that would be nice, but the reality is, Seth Jones is a future defensive star and the Predators (and the NHL) know it.  Unfortunately the closest the Oilers will likely get to having a Jones on the blue line would likely be Seth’s younger brother, Caleb.  But Ellis is a positive option, as seasoned blogger Rob Soria pointed out last spring.  Whether Nashville would go for it is another question.  But with talent piling up on Nashville’s blueline and their offense receiving little in the way of reinforcements, it might be a trade that works for both  parties.

Edmonton Oilers, Lindsay Ryall, NHL, Prospects

Hang on Slepy

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Can Anton Slepyshev’s Outstanding Play Push Purcell Out of the Way?

Pic courtesy of Conway’s Russian Hockey Blog.

At the beginning of the season Slepyshev made it clear he was willing to do whatever it took to make the Edmonton Oiler’s roster.  Skate, score, even hit, whatever the coach wanted.  Rhetoric is easy, to back it up is the real challenge, and so far, Slepy has done that, and then some.

Granted he needed an opportunity and that was provided when Teddy Purcell suffered a minor injury.  That opportunity has recently grown with the unfortunate news that first line winger Jordan Eberle will be out for 6 weeks with a shoulder injury.  Not to suggest Slepy should automatically get the spot on the first line, but someone will need to move up to fill the vacancy, and since he can play both wings his value has gone up nicely.  So for now at least (emphasis on the short-term) he’s positioned himself for a roster spot.  Opportunities come and go all the time in pro-sports, but you have to make the most of them, and so far in the pre-season, Slepyshev has.

After 5 games he has four points and (2g, 2a), good for second place in team scoring, not to mention a tidy +3.  But beyond the stats, Slepy’s style of play is what stands out for me, mostly because he brings intangibles this team needs.  He has the size the Oil need on the top six, speed, and willingness to go to the tough places to score, paying the physical price along the way.  Slepyshev ha shown statistically better than any other prospect in camp, so is there any reason why we shouldn’t get his locker with the big league ready?

Can He Keep it Up for the Full Season?

It has been suggested by at least one prolific blogger that the sample size on Slepy is just too small to make a definite decision.  A prospect playing above his head in camp and pre-season, only to find his actual level when the regular season begins in earnest, is a familiar story.  Examples of Jesse Joensuu and Tyler Pitlick in past camps are examples of this.  This is a valid point, but to strictly adhere to sweeping generalizations when making player comparisons can lead to a faulty analogy, and when it comes to Slepy there is enough evidence to suggest he is ready for a roster spot regardless of who may be injured or what other prospects have done in the past.

Slepyshev’s a Gamer

When you look at this player’s scoring history, a definite pattern emerges.  At every level he’s played, Slepyshev’s stats are fairly unremarkable, as he’s never put up ppg numbers at a high level.  Nonetheless those stats can be deceptive.  Despite the big ice, prolific scoring is not the norm in the KHL.  But when we look at international tournament play, where Slepyshev is playing on the top line, his scoring changes dramatically.

                               GP            G                A             P

U-17: 2010 – 11:       3               3                0            3
U-18: 2010 – 11:       7               3                1            4
U-18: 2011 – 12        7               4                3            7
U – 20 CAN-RUS      3               2                1            3

Challenge
U-20: 2013 – 14        7               2                 5           7

Spengler Cup (Salavat)
2014 – 15                  5              2                  3           5

So when the money is on the line, Slepyshev raises his play.  He’s clutch.  My argument is that at this point in his career, Slepyshev is playing for his life and he will continue to play at that level.  It will be some time before that pressure is off and he can rest on his pro-hockey player laurels, so I would expect him to continue playing at this level consistently beyond this year, and even better should the team be on the playoff hunt.  Sounds like a player we could use.

So What Happens When the Team is Healthy?

In spite of Slepyshev’s recent play, when the team is healthy he could indeed be the odd man out, and here’s where things could get confusing.  For a team that needs to get heavier, faster, more physical in their top nine, the Oilers could very well be demoting a player that could help upgrade the team, and instead add Teddy Purcell who has none of those qualities.  Purcell is slow and in all likelihood is the softest hockey player Canada has produced.  I would compare Purcell to a forward version of Justin Schultz (last year’s model) except not as physical . . .

If Slepyshev continues to play at the level he is playing, Chiarelli should be motivated to do something.  Hopefully he will be motivate to look for a trading partner short on skilled forwards but heavy on physical ones.  Maybe New Jersey or Florida.  But to keep Purcell here instead of Slepyshev would be pure folly, and based on McLellan’s recent comments, he may be winning over the bench boss.  When comparing the two players it’s an easy decision.  One player (so far) is young, hungry and doing whatever it takes.  The other is sleepwalking through his NHL career, living off a successful season when he played with a superstar.  At the end of the day it will come down Slepyshev, if he keeps producing against NHL rosters he will force management’s hand, and Chiarelli will have another tough decision to make.

Writer’s note:  Thanks to @higgsdistortion for the Anton Slepyshev creative photo.

Edmonton Oilers, Lindsay Ryall, NHL

Not Chia’s Pet

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When it was announced Peter Chiarelli would be the new GM for the Edmonton Oilers, there was, more or less, a collective sigh of relief throughout Oiler nation. The old boys network that had guided our beloved Oilers from disastrous season to a seemingly never-ending downward spiral of futility, had finally been broken.

But could the old boy’s network be eliminated that easily? Based on Chiarelli’s bumbling explanation of his relationship with Craig MacTavish in his interview with TSN’s Bob Mackenzie, there are signs that some of the residue of that era still remains.

When Mckenzie asked about MacTavish, Chiarelli appeared more awkward than at any time in the interview.  He admitted that his inital meeting with MacTavish was awkward as he stumbled through a description of MacT’s qualifications and fumbled as he tried to compliment him.  At one point he seemed to utter a freudian slip when he said “if we can make it (working together) work,”followed quickly by, “and we will make it work.”  Clearly there is something going on that Chiarelli is not comfortable with.

When Chiarelli was hired, it was made clear that he answered to no one with respect to decisions regarding the Oilers.  But it seems clear from the interview, the decision to keep MacTavish on board was not solely his. I am guessing Nicholson suggested to Chiarelli that he offer MacTavish a high position internally and that Chiarelli would be his boss.  I’m sure that seemed easy enough at the time, but he may not have been as familiar with MacT’s character as the Oiler faithful, and what challenges it could pose.

In my observation MacTavish’s most obvious character flaw tandem is his stubborness and pride.  When he has a belief in his head, he doesn’t seem flexible, even when exposed to new information.  So, Nikita Nikitin, in MacT’s world, is a top 4 world-class defenceman, Dallas Eakins was a great coach, Justin Schultz in a future Norris trophy candidate, and, my favourite, Jeff Petry needed to be challenged right before becoming a UFA.

All these beliefs of MacT were not rooted in logic, but I don’t believe, even today, he feels he made one wrong move.  And this is the man Chiarelli has as his 2IC, someone who likely will push his opinions internally.  Now is that just me looking for grassy knolls, or is there any evidence that MacTavish is continues to have influence with respect to player decisions?

Well, if we look at some of the recent player movement, there is.  Martin Marincin had some ups and downs developing, and like Petry, had found himself chronically in MacTavish’s doghouse.  But was it time to give up on him?  Not really.  He had a lot of potential and I would not be surprised if he played steady on Toronto’s blueline this year.  But at the draft when the new GM was looking for an asset to trade, I believe MacT pointed the finger at Marincin and he was gone.  Gryba was a nice pick-up, but we didn’t need to trade Marincin to get him.

Another strong piece of evidence that MacTavish still has some influence on the roster is the fact that Nikita Nikitin is still an Oiler.  Late in the summer, Oilers positioned themselves for a buyout . . . but didn’t do it.  If they had, they could have easily put Cody Franson in Nikitin’s spot and be in a much better position going into the season.  The reason why I believe they didn’t follow though with a buyout is MacTavish stubbornly advocated keeping Nikitin as an Oiler, and Chiarelli relented. . . for now.  So when Chiarelli’s shows signs of frustration when discussing his relationship with MacT, I would hypothesize player decisions like Nikitin being a source of that agitation.

Now with Connor McDavid’s biggest pre-game so far, the annual Oiler’s Rookies vs. Golden Bears, the bulk of Craig MacTavish’s leverage for player personnel involvemment will be on display.  After McDavid, the core Oiler prospects are from MacTavish’s tenure:  Darnell Nurse, Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Shlepyshev, to name a few.  As GM, the future of these players as Oilers will be directed by Chiarelli, however, based on what I believe about MacTavish, would he not try to meddle in decisions regarding these players?  You would hope not, but it could be a further annoyance.

But at the end of the day, Chiarelli is the boss.  In theory he could quash MacTavish if he gets too uppity, but unfortunately, that’s just theory.  In reality, MacT is a respected member of the Oiler’s organization who, as a coach, took the Oiler’s to within one game of hockey’s holy grail.  And, there’s little doubt, he’s held in high regard by Daryl Katz, the man who allowed the old boys club to start and guide the club.

Chiarelli, however, is not a member of the old boys club, so he can’t be so direct in managing MacTavish.  Alterntatively, I imagine he will follow one of two strategies:

1) Give him enough rope to hang himself: The only reason I can see that Chiarelli did not buy out Nikitin is he wanted to rub a repeated failure in MacTavish’s face so he doesn’t push his opinion again.

Or

2) Isolate him, keep him in the field scouting, thereby limiting the damage he may do to club. Out of the two options, the second one is the most likely course Chiarelli will take to diplomatically subdue any distractions from the task of taking the Oilers to the playoffs and beyond.

Now maybe this is all a bit of stretch.  Maybe a Stanley cup winning executive and one of the more respected hockey minds in the NHL thought it was OK to trade away a prospect that the club had invested years in developing for very little return.  Maybe the architect of Boston Bruins D-corps that carried that franchise to the Stanley Cup also believes, like his predecessor, that Nikita Nikitin is a world-class talent and a top four defenceman.  Maybe.

Or it’s also likely, and maybe not surprising, that Chiarelli is still consolidating control in his position as moves forward in completing a stalled re-build.  But if I’m reading the body language, and interpreting the fumbled verbiage correctly, Chiarelli is inheriting some unwanted baggage in MacTavish, baggage he will take time in processing and managing.

Edmonton Oilers, Lindsay Ryall, NHL, Prospects

Their Time to Shine

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McDavid and Draisaitl Gang up on the Golden Bears

The annual Oilers Rookies Vs. U of A Golden Bear’s game is always an interesting affair.  The automatic assumption is that the more talented Oiler rookies will dominate a team that is used to playing with each other.  However, many times that has not been the case and the Oiler Rookies have been given a sound humbling on more than one occasion.

But on this night talent one over familiarity and structure with room to spare as elite prospects Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combined for 7 points leading the Edmonton Oilers rookies to 6 -3 victory in front of 14, 000 plus fans and move one game under .500 in their head to head match-ups with the Bears (12-13-0)

While the score ended up lopsided it started out fairly even. The Oilers rookies seemed to be carrying the play and getting the chances but it was the Bears who got on first when (ironically) Ethan Bear lost a puck battle in front and Rhett Rachinski snapped the loose puck home 5:04 of the first.

In spite of the deficit, Draisaitl and McDavid continued to press the Bear’s D and it wasn’t long before penalties became an issue.  The Bear’s goal scorer Rachinski took a penalty at 9:17 of the first and they didn’t have long to wait for retribution when the Deutschland Dangler, Leon Draisaitl took a nifty feed from Braden Christoffer and buried it.

The Oilers rookies continued to play with power when Riley Kieser took a penalty at 10:30 and the Oilers quickly capitalized when the next one, Connor McDavid, made a reverse angle behind the net pass to Alexis Loiseau who finished the play with some nifty hands of his own.

In the second frame puck possession basically belonged to the Bears as they handily out shot the Oilers rookies by a wide margin but really didn’t benefit on the scoresheet as Eetu Laurikainen was very solid in net. Joey Laleggia showed nice offensive instincts when he took a Leon Draisaitl feed walking in to score early in the second period.

U of A veteran Jordan Hickmott answered shortly after but for all their territorial dominance the Golden Bears were still a goal behind.  And that was unfortunate because the Oilers rookies blew the game wide open with 3 goals in the third, and they were all illustrated a style that is needed on the big club.

Josh Winquist showed some good hockey sense when he was in the right place to capitalize on a juicy rebound for the fourth goal.  Connor Mcdavid and Cole Sanford executed an odd man rush to perfection for the fifth goal. Not to be outdone,  Anton Shlepyshev was finally rewared for his numerous drives to the net with a bit of a moldy one he scored falling down, for his first of the night, and the sixth Oiler goal.

My Three Stars:

  1. Leon Draisaitl: A goal and thee assists for a dominant performance.
  2. Connor Mcdavid: Dazzling display of offensive skills including a super speed Forsberg move… and three assists.
  3. Eetu Laurikainen: Very steady in net, bailed out his youthful D.

Making a Case for Promotion

Leon Draisaitl was a dominant force throughout the game and while footspeed has been a gripe against him, he certainly kept pace with a speedy Bear squad.  Finishing the night with a goal and 3 assists. Draisaitl could have had even more if his linemate Christoffer hadn’t bobbled the puck a couple times.  As rookie camp has progressed, he’s only looked stronger, and I expect when main camp continues will make it very tough for the coaching staff to send him down.

Needing Some Seasoning

Darnell Nurse did not dominate last night as some might have expected and at times looked a little out of sorts, bobbling the puck somewhat and not looking confident.  Too early to say but some time in the minors may not be the worst thing for this player.

Likes to Go to the Net

Pic courtesy of Conway’s Russian Hockey Blog.

Future power forward Anton Shlepyshev was using his size and speed to bulldoze towards the net whenever the opportunity was there.  On one occasion he drew a penalty, on another he was rewarded with one Smytty would’ve been proud of.  This guy plays more of a North American than Euro game from what I can see and even reminds me of somewhat of Glenn Anderson with his style.

A Bit of a Project

Ethan Bear struggled a fair bit in this game, sending a pizza up the slot that led to a grade A scoring chance, but Laurikainen bailed him out.  He was also at fault on the first Golden Bears goal when he lost his man in front.  The scouts like his physicality but his hockey sense at this stage is lagging. Looks like he is a good 3 – 4 years away.

 

Lindsay Ryall, NHL

Beer League Heroes 15 – 16 Season Primers: Winnipeg Jets

What started out four years ago as Canadian Hockey’s feel good story has rapidly evolved to a familiar Canadian hockey script. The first few years, the fans were just happy to have a team. After that though the bunsen burner started to rise, and 2014 -15 Jets were feeling the pressure of increased expectations.

Fortunately for the Jet’s they delivered as needed in 2014-15 with a playoff appearance. Initially progress was slow, but under Paul Maurice’s guidance the Jets gained a consistency that buoyed them into their first round appearance i the 2015 playoffs. And while the Jets didn’t get a “W” in a four game sweep by the Anaheim Ducks, it was a goal that was acheived, much to the delight of Jets fans everwhere.

But that was last year, what will this years version of the Winnipeg Jets deliver? Unfortunately, it might be wise for the members of Jets nation to temper their enthusiasm, especially considering the division the Jets play in, and what upgrades their GM has provided. A brief overview of the team:

Key Additions: Alexander Burmistrov

Key Departures: Michael Frolik, Zach Bogosian, Evander Kane, Jiri Tlusty, Lee Stempniak,

Roster Contenders: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey, Connor Hellebuyck, Andrew Copp

 

Projected Lineup:

Andrew Ladd – Bryan Little – Blake Wheeler
Alexander Burmistrov – Mark Scheifele – Drew Stafford
Adam Lowry – Mathieu Perreault – Nikolai Ehlers
Jim Slater – Andrew Copp – Matt Halischuck

Defence

Dustin Byfuglien – Jacob Trouba
Tobias Enstron – Tyler Myers
Mark Stuart – Ben Chariot

Ondrej Pavelec
Michael Hutchinson

The Winnipeg Jets have been the second favorite hockey team for most Canadian hockey fans, and for good reason.There’s not an abundance of raw talent here, but more than a dollop of try, and we like that. Unfortunately for the Jets they will need more substance to go with effort and their GM has failed miserably in providing it.

Last year, the Jets at one point had useful forwards like Michael Frolik, Lee Stempniak, and Jiri Tlusty to solidify a youthful but developing roster. All those players are gone now  with only former player Alexander Burmistrov coming back in return. Not good.

Obviously Kevin Cheveldayoff is putting a lot of trust in his prospect pool. And lucky for him, he has the best prospect depth in the NHL. One thing Cheveldayoff did do was ensure he had among the best scouting staff in the NHL and Chevy will need at least one or two of those recent draft picks to step up.

Tops on the prospect list is future great Dane, Nikolaj Ehlers. Ehlers is the best forward prospect this side of Connor Mcdavid and is a year older. The Jets have no shortage of size so they can surround Ehlers with Gigantic forwards for protection. Based on his other-worldly production in the Q (1.98 ppg during the seasson, 2.21 ppg in the playoffs) Ehlers is an early candidate for the Calder.

Apart from that, Andrew Copp has shown well in camp and is believed to have a shot at the fourth line center spot, but that isn’t exactly game breaker territory. On the back-end Josh Morrissey could push for a spot, but the Jets aren’t desperate on defence, so there won’t be too many changes there.

Now in goal things could get more interesting as the Jets really don’t have a clear-cut #1 goalie. Last year it was done more by committee. Huctchinson carried the ball for most of the first half and when he began to falter, passed it back to Pavelec. My prediction is that one, or both, of Pavelec and Hutchinson could start to suck slough water, at which point the door of opportunity could open for Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck is in my opinion the best goalie not in the NHL and could force his way into some games. That would be a good thing for the Winnipeg Jets organization, but if their goaltending falters for any stretch, that might hurt their chances for a consecutive appearance in the post-season.

So overall, the Jets have a decent top 9. Season highlights to watch for would be Scheifele continuing to take charge of the team, Burmistrov to make a strong return, and Ehlers to push for the Calder. But is it enough? Maybe, but they are in the league’s toughest division and don’t appear to have improved enough to keep pace. It’s hard count out a team coached by Paul Maurice but I would foresee the Jets finishing just outside of the playoff cut in the 93 -95 point range.

A developing subplot to the season will be looming UFA’s Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien. Look for Chevy’s lethargic decision-making to cost the Jets one or possibly both of these players and finally take some real heat from management.