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Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rob Cooke

Projecting the Edmonton Oilers: Left Wing Edition

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This is the slow time of year from now until training camp for the vast majority of NHL teams. Prospect camps are wrapping up around the league and the players re heading home to start their off-season training programs in hopes of earning a roster slot in the fall. There is not a whole lot to look forward to over the next eight to nine weeks. One of the things that get’s me through the long summer month’s is reading the various Oilers blogs for any tidbits of news that will fill insatiable lust for all things Oilers.

There are so many fantastic writers out there that I can’t possibly name all of them. The one that has always stood out for me and I read his posts twice a day is Mr. Allen Mitchell, known in the blogosphere as Lowetide. I thoroughly enjoy his work even though I occasionally agree with his ideas. I will say however that out of all the Oilers related writers, both mainstream and otherwise, I would likely say that my ideas most closely align with Lowetide.

Now I know you are asking me where the hell I am going with this as it is getting border line creepy, so let’s get right down to the task at hand. This morning I seen on lowetide.ca that he has posted his official precursor to his annual RE series. I know that most Oilers fans have likely already read the article but for those that haven’t you can find it here. I highly recommend reading the entire series as his unique question and answer series that he does for each player is truly excellent! He is goes into a lot of depth with each player and covers things like line-mates, ice time, and of course the ever popular point projections.

For my purposes I am not going to go into anywhere as much detail as Mr. Mitchell. I am going to separate the series into six articles in total. One to cover each player position and a final one to cover the new coach. Today we are going to start with the left wingers. This is the easiest position for me to start with because the depth of actual NHL players on the left side makes it easy to figure out who will actually be on the opening night roster. In my estimation the four left wingers that will put on the white, orange, and blue on October 8th in St. Louis will be Taylor Hall, Benoit Pouliot, Lauri Korpikoski, and Matt Hendricks. There really isn’t anyone that will be able to challenge any of these players for the spot coming into camp this year. So lets dive right in and see what is what.

Taylor Hall

Since his draft in 2010 Taylor Hall has been a force to be reckoned with when flying down the ice with the puck on his stick. He has the ability and skill to embarrass a lot of defencemen and puts fear into goalies as he is barreling down on them. Right now before McDavid has played an official NHL game Taylor is without a doubt in my mind the best player the Oilers have. Obviously adding a generational talent like Connor changes that dynamic but he is still one of if not the best left-wing in the entire league.

Now before I will get into my best guess as to where he will end up point wise it is best if we take a look at his history and who it is likely we will see him playing with. His history for the most part is fantastic. In two of the last three seasons Hall has averaged just over a point per game. The exception being last season where he only played 53 games and was only able to chip in 38 points with 14 goals. His goal total was a little lower than his usual due to a lower than average shooting percentage and playing through various injuries throughout the season. Hall when healthy and raring to go is good for about a point per and that trend should continue next season regardless of who he plays with.

Thus far in his career Hallsy has spent the majority of his time on Ice with fellow young stars Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins but with his injuries last season and Ebs, Nuge, and Pouliot forming an excellent line with great chemistry he was moved to different spots in the line up and that affected his totals as well. This coming season I think we will see Taylor play the vast majority of his minutes with McDavid and an interchanging right-wing. In my opinion they are going to want to start the season with a veteran presence on the line with good two-way skill. The most likely candidate to fill the spot is Teddy Purcell. He may not be the fastest skater but he also wouldn’t be a liability in the offensive zone and he could lighten the defensive responsibility on McDavid.

With those two playing with Hall that allows Coach McLellan to keep the top line that finished last season together to handle the toughest competition. Obviously playing with a rookie center would mean a plethora of offensive zone starts for Hall and company and with all that talent it is hard to not expect amazing results.

My prediction for Taylor Hall is that his shooting percentage will return slightly above average with such a gifted player passing the puck to him. As far as point totals go I see Hall playing 75 games and eclipsing his best year to date by hitting the 30 goal mark for the first time and will add 50 assists. It will be hard not to hit those totals when you are sending and receiving passes with Connor McDavid.

Benoit Pouliot

Last season was a break out year for Benoit Pouliot. He was given the opportunity to play first line minutes for an extended period of time and he excelled at it. Despite missing a big chunk of games due to a broken foot Pouliot still set a career high in goals, bulging the twine 19 times in only 58 games. His previous best was 16 with the Bruins a few years back but that was in 16 more games than last season. Along with the 19 goals he added 15 apples which puts him only two points off his career best in 22 fewer outings. Any way you look at it that is just great news. To be fair Pouliot did have a much higher than average shooting percentage but given an 80 game performance he still wold have broken his personal highs in both goals and assist.

A large portion of his playing time, at least after he returned from injury, was spent alongside numbers 93 and 14. Definitely two terrific players entering the prime of their careers and Pouliot didn’t look a bit out of place. I see McLellan trying this trio out together in the pre-season and excluding a complete loss of the chemistry they showed last season  will hopefully be the starting line on opening night.

While Pouliot doesn’t have Hall’s offensive gifts he is more responsible defensively and isn’t afraid to go into the dirty areas with the big boys of the western conference. Should Benny play a full healthy season and spend a lot of time with the same players as last season I think we will see even higher offensive totals. Like I said his shooting percentage was dramatically higher than his career average but some of that can be attributed to playing with better players then he has before.

Next season my prediction for Pouliot is 78 games played, all in a top six role. His point totals will also go up accordingly with his bigger role from the very start of the season. I see Benoit netting 22 goals and 20 assists for 42 points. While not a huge total it is still more than respectable for a guy that has never hit 40 in his career.

Lauri Korpikoski

Next on the list is one of the newer Oilers and a player that I fully admit I have not seen play a ton of hockey. For a look at what his career has looked like point wise and a brief overview of the player in general I went to Elite prospects and what they had to say is here if you are interested to look.

His point totals have never been outstanding but he is a very fast skater that will see time in the top six at some point this year. Korpikoski is four years removed from his best season, a year in which he was able to light the lamp 19 times and chip in with 21 assists  for a total of 40 for anyone that can’t figure that out for themselves. Not great  totals but he is an effective two-way player that will see plenty of time on the PK units and provides a veteran player to help lighten the defensive load for his likely center, Anton Lander, not that he has shown that he isn’t capable of handling his own in the defensive zone.

The player that is most likely to benefit from having Lauri on his line will be the right-wing. In my estimation that is likely to be Nail Yakupov to start the season although I think that will switch by Christmas with Yak moving up to take Purcell’s slot on the McDavid line.

With his best year far in the rear-view mirror there is little if any reason to expect a bounce back year from the Finn I think a reasonable expectation for  Korpikoski is that his offensive output will remain roughly the  same as the last two years. My prediction is that we will see him come close to double digits in goals with 9 and right near his career high in assists with 20. 29 points in the Pisani role is a decent amount and won’t be all that he brings to the table.

Matt Hendricks

This guy was one half of the best defensive zone duos the Edmonton Oilers have had in a very long time. Along with Boyd Gordon they faced the worst  zone starts and the toughest competition on a nightly basis. The fact that they did it and not only survived but managed to pot 8 goals along with 8 assists is awfully impressive!

Hendy is never going to be an offensive juggernaut but that isn’t what he is paid for. He is here to take the worst the other team can throw at him and to still come out smiling on the other side. In his two years as an Oiler he has filled this role admirably and although Gordon has been traded to bring in the “Pisani” role, General Manager Peter Chiarelli has filled his vacant slot with veteran center Mark Letestu through free agency.

The biggest concern for me going forward is that McLellan has never used a defensive shutdown line like Edmonton did under Eakins and Nelson. He may prefer to roll his lines and have the potential for offense from all four lines. The reason I am thinking that is a possibility is Gordon being sent out in favor of Letestu who while not being quite the demon on the dot is more capable offensively.

The other member of this trio will totally depend on usage. Unfortunately some of the time will be used to ice Luke Gazdic, while he seems likes a nice guy is not much of an actual hockey player. Offensive rushes tend to die on the sticks of players of his ilk. The majority of his time will be played with either Rob Klinkhammer, if in a defensive shut down role, or rookie Leon Draisaitl if they are looking to add more offense to the line. I personally don’t see Leon being on the opening night roster but that will have more to do with salary cap ramifications than actual ability.

With all that being said it is time to lay my pride on the line for the fourth time tonight and make my hypothesis known. Hendy has only broken the 20 point mark once in his career and that was pre-lockout before the offense dried up. Other than that anomaly his career high was 16 points, just like last season. Not great but still adequate given his usage in years past. I think Hendricks is just too damn tough and too hard-working for him to not put up similar totals next year. My best guess would be 6 goals and 7 assists for a whopping total of 13. Solid totals for one of the biggest leaders on the team. Not to mention one of my favorite Oilers.

Now  that we have covered the four most likely players to play down the left side I want to know what all you Beer Leaguers think? Hit me up in the comments or on twitter, @cooke_rob, and share your best guesses with me. I love the chance to talk hockey so as long as you keep it respectful we can talk anytime!  Whether your totals are way different from mine or not I think we can all agree that the team shouldn’t be hurting for offense from the left side any time this season.

Thanks for reading and come back again when we will look at the production coming from down the middle. If you like our site head over to the t-shirt shop and pick up one of the fancy shirts we have designed. Beauty shirts at a great price! You can’t go wrong!!!

Cheers

Rob

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rob Cooke

Are the Edmonton Oilers Playoff Contenders Now?

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     There is an enormous amount of talk on the Twittersphere right now about the Oilers attempting to negotiate a trade with the Chicago Blackhawks to land defensive stalwart Brent Seabrook. All that talk got me to thinking about what is realistic for the Oilers moving forward. I agree that adding Seabrook would be a tremendous boost and would make the team a playoff contender next season. But with that being said, I still don’t see Seabrook being moved. Although I can honestly say I didn’t think that Saad would be moved either. He would be a tremendous add to the team but that would be a best case scenario. While I would love to see him play in the blue and orange I just don’t see it as being realistic at this point.

That is my topic for the day, what is realistic going forward? I read a blog this morning from Richard Cloutier over at PrettySkateMachine and it got me to thinking about what fans should expect this coming season. If you want to read the post it is here. Now before I begin to discuss the post I need to make it perfectly clear that I DO NOT dislike Richard in any way. I respect his opinion and someday hope to be as widely followed as him. Truth be told, Richard is a big reason that I got into blogging in the first place. So if you hate my writing or whatever please direct all complaints to him. But in all seriousness, Richard and I don’t have any animosity between us and even though we rarely agree, we respect each others opinions and enjoy discussing the team. I read the post mentioned above and I agreed with virtually everything that he wrote in the piece with the exception being that the Oilers will be a playoff team in 2015-16.

I do think that the team will take an astronomical step forward this season but there are still far too many variables that need to break right in order for this team to see the second season. The Oilers were 35 points out of playoffs last season. Yes you read that right, 35 points! That is a huge number of points to make up in one season. While the Oilers got better this summer, dramatically better in fact, so did a lot of teams in the Western conference. To assume that the additions we made is enough is putting the cart before the horse in my opinion. Of course if the Oilers get the puck luck that the Flames had last season it is entirely possible but not probable. So what needs to happen for this much maligned franchise to see the post-season for the first time in a decade? A whole lot actually.

Cam Talbot has to be the bona fide starter that the team expects him to be, we cannot afford to have another goaltender issue like we have in the past couple of seasons. Talbot has to be able to steal games for this team and keep them in the games that they have no business being in. On top of that he is going to need to be able to handle the 60 plus game workload normally associated with being a true starting goalie. That is a ton of pressure to put on a guy that has played less than a hundred games in the NHL. Is he ready for it? I guess we will know in the coming months.

What else needs to happen? Well we need Andrej Sekera to play huge minutes for us on the top pairing and this season and do it well. Is he capable of it? Possibly but he is definitely better suited to be the number three defender on the . The unfortunate thing here is that the Oilers are again going to be forced to play the defense above their heads as we don’t have the real top pairing guys, a la Drew Doughty or Duncan Keith and we won’t see one coming this year either. That was a large part of the issue last season. All the defencemen were playing over their ability level and that is something that the good teams never do.

To me those are the two biggest factors moving forward this season. The goaltending needs to be much much better and the defense needs to be less chaotic and more efficient at moving the puck out of our zone. If both of those items break in the Oilers favor we could see hockey in late April again.

Now that I have framed the issue at hand lets look at what we know so far. We know that our star players will be our stars again. Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle are all a year older and capable of handling the tougher competition. Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov, Teddy Purcell, and Lauri Korpikoski will fill out the top nine wingers positions adequately if not spectacularly. Lander looks extremely capable of handling the third line center spot and chip in offensively on a consistent basis. The fourth line players like Mark Letestu, Matt Hendricks, and Rob Klinkhammer will be counted on to be sound defensively and little else. We also know that Oscar Klefbom is capable of playing top four minutes this year without quite as easy zone starts, depending on his partner. Dragging Schultz around again this year will virtually guarantee massive offensive zone starts if for no other reason than Schultz is a train wreck in the defensive zone. At this point barring other players joining the roster before training camp in September that is about all we can count on being true.

Of course I am leaving out the phenom and future league superstar Connor McDavid. The reason I am leaving him out for now is we don’t know just how well he will do this season. I fully expect him to be a finalist for the Calder trophy, but since the league seems to hate awarding trophies to Edmonton Oilers players, he will be runner-up to Jack Eichel from Buffalo. McDavid’s numbers will depend a lot on Todd McLellan and how much he decides to play the youngster. Richard states in his article that he feels that Connor could challenge for the Art Ross this season and depending on his minutes and zone starts it isn’t outside the realm of possibility. That would obviously be the best case scenario but it isn’t entirely unrealistic.

We know what we have so far and who can be counted on to be effective and consistent players moving forward. I am not going to get into exactly where I see the players finishing point wise as that would take away from future posts that I plan to write this summer. What I do want to look at is where I predict the Oilers will finish in the standings this season. Unlike Richard I don’t see Edmonton being quite there yet. To get into the playoffs last season in the west you needed a minimum of 97 points and that was just the wildcard berths. To be looked at as an actual contender would require 100 plus points and I am sorry Oilers but that just isn’t going to happen. Especially with the Oilers atrocious record against the west last season. Edmonton finished the season 20 games below .500 and to me that is just too much ground to make up in one off-season.  If we are  being realistic and even a little optimistic, I know that is hard for us Oilers fans, I could see maybe 15 more wins next season. That adds 30 points to our total from last year and while it is a massive increase it still isn’t enough to take us to the promised land. I see Edmonton finishing ninth or tenth next season which while not appeasing the franchises need for playoff it does mean meaningful games into March and I for one would be completely okay with that!

What do you think? Has Chiarelli done enough of a transformation to this team to make the playoffs? Where do you see the boys finishing this year? Hit me up in the comments section or on twitter, @cooke_rob, with your thoughts on this or any other hockey related topic. I am always up for a good discussion. Thanks for reading Beer Leaguers and please spread the word about our fantastic little site here!

Cheers!

Rob

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects, Rob Cooke, Rumors, Trades

Lowered Expectations

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I have seen a lot, and been involved in more than a few, conversations about what could occur in Florida between Friday evening and supper time Saturday. It’s a no-brainer that Edmonton is going to select Connor McDavid with the first overall selection and that the heavens will open and all the angels rejoice at the rebirth of the saviour. Well maybe that last part won’t happen but McD is a lock to be in Oilers silks come June 26th. Every basement dwelling blogger, myself included if I had a basement, will be going insane with anticipation on Friday night watching the first round to see what will actually occur after this horrendously long off-season. Yes I know there are a ton of rumours flying around about the Oilers 16th overall pick and I for one am hoping that they turn out to be completely baseless and false. Most times I am seeing this pick mentioned in trade it involves acquiring goaltender Cam Talbot and I am adding my voice to the overwhelming number of Oilersnation faithful in saying that the guy just isn’t worth it! Don’t get me wrong the guy played fantastic down the stretch when the King went down but he has limited games played and I for one don’t feel comfortable paying that amount for an as of yet unproven goalie. Especially one on the final year of a contract that sees him reach unrestricted free agency should he be so inclined.

The rumour mongers are going absolutely ape shit like normal at this time of year and all I am here to ask is that fans and bloggers alike, please be realistic in your expectations for Friday night and early Saturday morning. Talbot very well could be acquired by Chiarelli but I think it is much more likely for the 33rd pick. No I am not including Marincin as I have seen some others do because again that is an overpay in my opinion and the Rangers are not in that strong of a position to demand it. The 16th overall pick, if moved at all, will be better spent on acquiring help on defense as that is the biggest hole that is going to be the hardest to fill. No we are not going to see Brent Seabrook or Brent Burns as Oilers next fall so don’t even bother suggesting it.

I have no idea who the team could be targeting with the pick if it is traded but should the team do the boring thing and use the selection there is a better than good chance that this will add another elite prospect to an already young franchise. That’s not necessarily a bad thing considering where the team finished last year and what we will likely see as far as improvement this coming season. When I am saying that people need to be realistic I’m not just talking about the upcoming draft and free agency. I am also including the 2015-16 NHL season. Last season the Oilers finished 35 points out of the playoffs in this league a deficit like that is nearly impossible to make up in one season. I mean teams have gone from bottom dweller to playoff team in one year, most recently the Colorado Avalanche in the 2013-14 season and the vastly over achieving Calgary Flames from this past season. Neither did much in the playoffs but at least they made it there is my thought. IS Edmonton going to be the odds defying team this season? They very well could be the belle of the ball but I really have my doubts on that. With the outside possibility that the team will actually bring in two legit defenders and a new starting goalie there could be a possibility but I don’t think Mr. Chiarelli finishes his shopping list this summer with another top defender hopefully joining the team next summer if Nurse and Klefbom don’t develop into the role first. I think that if we are being realistic and even a little optimistic we can expect a jump of roughly 25 points next year which unfortunately in the extremely deep western conference wouldn’t even move the team up 1 spot in the standings but would like see some meaningful hockey come February and March. And at this stage of the game that is really all that we can ask for!

I really hope that I am wrong and we do get the players we need this summer and go on a miracle run that takes us to the second season for the first time in a decade. God knows that the fans sure deserve it but when have what us fans deserve ever entered into the equation? If you think I’m wrong let me know. What do you expect to happen over the next couple of weeks as we pass the draft and head into free agency? Hit me up in the comments or get at me on twitter, @cooke_rob. Until next time Beer Leaguers!