The Hlinka Gretzky Cup is set to kick off on August 5th and run until the 10th in Breclav, Czech Republic and Piestany, Slovakia. For those of you that are new to the competition, it’s basically the world’s best under-18 players going head-to-head. Canada has won 22 of the last 28 contests and are looking to repeat as champions after winning last year’s edition of the tournament that was played in Edmonton and Red Deer.
Today’s Group A preview comes to us from the mind of Max L. (@TPEHockey)
Canada:
The Canadians are an early favorite to run away with this tournament due to their combination of high-end talent and depth. They occupied 5/10 of the top 10 scorers at the U17s last year. The team will be without 2020’s top prospect in Alexis Lafreniére due to him being a late 2001 born player rather than 2002. Nonetheless, the team has plenty of high-end talent, and anything less than a gold medal is a failure for this squad.
In net, the Canadians have various options. The go-to guy will likely be Dylan Garand of the Kamloops Blazers who has a strong 16-year-old season with the team. They also have Tristan Lennox who is a late birthday eligible for the 2021 draft. Their defense is where it gets crazy. Canada has 4 or 5 first-round talents on their blueline including Jamie Drysdale, Jeremie Poirier, Kaiden Guhle, and Lukas Cormier. With the prominence of their blue line, Canada doesn’t lack forwards either. The consensus #2 guy for the 2020 draft, Quinton Byfield, will play for the team. The 6’5” monster dominates with his ridiculous skating ability and high-end skill set. Other potential 1st rounders include Cole Perfetti, Connor McClennon, Hendrix Lapierre, Jack Neighbors, and Theo Rochette.
Finland:
The Finns have been a dominant force in hockey as of late, but this year may be a little different. Their 2002 born and 2020 draft class lacks a ton of talent, but there is hope. They’ll be without consensus top 5 prospect Anton Lundell due to him being a late 01 which is a huge hit to their roster. Finland has a chance at competing for a medal, but they’ll likely be steamrolled by a team like Canada. Although they could be a very exciting team.
The team features a few stars that will come up in later drafts that everyone should have an eye on. Underaged Brad Lambert will likely make this team and he is nothing short of phenomenal. He is one of the best upcoming Finnish players we’ve ever seen, but not eligible until 2022. Lambert has far exceeded the benchmark put up by a player like Kaapo Kakko at the same age. Aatu Räty is also a top player as he’s the #1 prospect for the 2021 draft. Other players to look out for are Veeti Miettinen, Valterri Karnaranta, Roni Hirvonen, and Kasper Puutio.
Czech Republic:
Czech hockey has seemed to be getting weaker as of late and the trend may continue. There isn’t much to be expected from this team, but there are a few good players.
In net Jan Bednar and Jakub Malek will compete for the starting job. Both are top prospects for 2020. On defense, we can expect to see Stanislav Svozil who is a 1st round prospect for the 2021 draft. The only real forward of note is Jan Mysak. Mysak could compete for a top 10 root in the 2020 draft after his time in the Czech pros as a 16-year-old. He had a remarkable playoff run with HC Litvinov where he scored 5 goals and 4 assists in 6 professional hockey games at 16.
Switzerland:
The Swiss team this year won’t be fun to watch. With only one real prospect they don’t stand a chance. They lost dual citizen Theo Rochette to Canada, a huge hit to the program. Their only guy to watch is Noah Delemont who served as an assistant captain for Switzerland at the U18s.
The Group B preview written by Keith Fries (@keithfries) will be posted tomorrow as well as a little rumor on the Oilers search for their third-line center.
The Oilers Defence Past 2019/20
Earlier this week I tweeted out a video of Darnell Nurse fluffing a 10ft pass and it caused a bit of an uproar amongst some of his biggest fans. My point was, and has been for some time, that even though he’s a tough son of a bitch and he can skate like the wind (when there’s an open lane), his decision making, IQ, and passing isn’t up to snuff for a player who is looking at Jacob Trouba’s new $8M per year deal as his own deal is expiring after this season.
When I say that Darnell Nurse has problems passing, I'm talking about things like this… #Oilers
Is this a $7M player or even a $6M one? pic.twitter.com/EBl4Ss8lro
— 𝑩𝑳𝑯⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (@BeerLeagueHeroe) July 29, 2019
Personally, I think his numbers are propped up by playing most of his career TOI with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. At least over the previous three seasons, it looks that way,
- Connor McDavid – 1583:55 min
- Leon Draisaitl – 1517:54 min
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 1275:37
Who are the three guys who stand at the blueline during warm-ups each game again?
And don’t ask me why Todd McLellan, for the most part, and Ken Hitchcock, to a lesser degree, decided to do this. It’s obvious that Nurse was a drag on the team’s best forwards. Here are his possession metrics in all strengths With/Without/Player without Nurse during the same three seasons,
- McDavid: 53.09%/44.25%/58.18%
- Draisaitl: 52.09%/44.87%/57.85%
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 48.31%/47.13%/52.50%
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
For a game where the defensemen are evolving every year, it’s just not a good look on a defender who can’t move the puck without having to take it himself, to have such poor metrics. And Look, Nurse isn’t the only one, he just happens to be the one that might be asking for the moon in his next deal. Sam Girard (COL) just signed a 7-yr deal with $5M per year and I think they compare quite well and think that’s the ideal AAV for Nurse to sign that would help not only the team going forward but possibly himself should he make it for 5 years and walk himself into free agency.
So, when people tell me that you can’t move him because he was the team’s highest-scoring defender last year and he’s only 24 or that he’s the Oilers best blueliner, I think you have to look into those 40+ points he got last year and realize that approximately 25% of them came on the PP, which isn’t a bad thing but he probably wouldn’t have gotten them had Klefbom (or Sekera) stayed healthy. Also, his secondary points (19) nearly match his primary (22) and his SH% almost doubled from the season prior (3.09% to 5.10%).
Getting back to the powerplay for a moment, do you think that Nurse will be playing a lot of minutes with the man advantage with Joel Persson and Caleb Jones most likely making the team next season? And what about that when Evan Bouchard is on the team?
My argument isn’t that Nurse is a bad player even though I’m presenting some pretty damning evidence that doesn’t really speak to the pluses of his game. I’m saying he’s not worth what Trouba makes right now and he’s never been an offensive defender.
I want Darnell Nurse to be the next Chris Pronger, but as weird as it sounds, he’s not as mean as Pronger was. He looks it when it’s time to throw down, but Pronger was as dirty as he was mean. Could Darnell be like that? Absolutely and I’d love to see it.
What I truly desire for Nurse is for him to embrace the shutdown role. Really dig in on being amazing defensively for this team so that they can pair him with a righty who needs a clean-up man in order to be the best player he can be for the Oilers. But in order to do that, he can be doing things like this,
You mean like this Glen? https://t.co/RdWF4TTdBI pic.twitter.com/pN4nAxQGsY
— 𝑩𝑳𝑯⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (@BeerLeagueHeroe) July 29, 2019
If you think that the Oilers would have a gaping hole in the toughness department without Darnell, you need to watch a bit more of William Lagesson. This guy is as tough as nails plus he can skate and pass the puck and I think if I’m being honest, his progression is part of the reason I think I feel comfortable with the idea of moving Nurse.
Tying all of that in with the title of this portion of the post, IF Anton Thun decides he’s going to be brave with Holland like he was with Chiarelli, I don’t think it’s going to end up well. In addition to that, we’ve heard from pundits covering the team that this group of defensemen could be getting a facelift. Now whether that comes internally or externally, my belief is that the Oilers are looking for better puck-movers and more offense from the blueline.
After this season, I would project the defense to look something like this if Nurse re-signs,
Oscar Klefbom/Adam Larsson
Darnell Nurse/Evan Bouchard
William Lagesson/Caleb Jones
I do believe that this year will be the last time we see Kris Russell and Matt Benning in Oilers gear. Joel Persson is also a question mark past this upcoming campaign, so I didn’t include him.
If Nurse doesn’t re-sign and is moved, I think the defense would look like this,
Klefbom/Larsson
Lagesson/Bouchard
Jones/Bear
I know. It looks awfully green and it is, at the NHL level, but Lagesson, Jones, and Bear will have had multiple seasons of experience in the AHL and most likely games in the NHL too. Bouchard would have one full year (probably) and if Tyler Benson can get the push after one year, why not Old Man Bouchard? Can’t forget how Bouchard was the team’s best passer as a 19-year-old in his stint last year.
That group of defenders CAN move the puck extremely well and I’d be willing to bet that we’d soon forget about the toughness and puck-rushing that Nurse brings today not to mention the return on a trade for him would most likely net Edmonton a pretty good forward…
Let me reiterate this one more time, I don’t want Nurse traded. I want him to sign a team-friendly contract that pays him what he is worth long-term. But in the event that his camp is asking for too much money, I do believe the organization depth would give the Oilers the ability to field offers on the defenseman and allow them to upgrade the roster.
FYI: Almost 14 years to the day, Chris Pronger was traded to the Oilers for Eric Brewer, Jeff Wowitka, and Doug Lynch. The anniversary of that trade is very soon and I asked my followers on Twitter what the equivalent of that deal would look like today if we were using this roster? Would it be Nurse, Lagesson, and Bear for Victor Hedman? Let me know your idea in the comments below!
