Edmonton Oilers After Fifty Games: What Are the Numbers Telling Us and Who Could Help?

Welcome back Oilers fans! Chinese New Year is over and we’ve not been gifted with the opportunity to panic over the coronavirus… Yeah… You’re probably infinitely safer over in Canada than I am here in Taiwan, but now that most of the major airlines are canceling flights to/from Beijing/Shanghai, we should be able to take it easier (in theory). That said, what do I come home to this evening but my beloved wife enthralled in the movie “Contagion” on her laptop and the local news that is recycling the latest on the virus outbreak playing on the TV… Woof! It’s intense over here sometims. At least I’ve got the Edmonton Oilers, right?

Right on!

Off to Div I for the Taiwanese U18 ladies! Congrats to all of them and the hard work/dedication they've brought to the rink!

Here's to continued success! 恭喜你們!!!https://t.co/TbqitqbCYD pic.twitter.com/odG3OnNJzz

— 𝑩𝑳𝑯⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (@BeerLeagueHeroe) January 29, 2020

Speaking of the boys in blue, orange, and white; they played last night and it was a glorious tilt. Hits, fights, goals, comebacks, cheap shots, more cheap shots, and just when you thought the game was getting boring, Calgary threw in another cheap shot and then got lucky in the shootout. Well, just as they did last time when they thought they “stole” the two points, the next game they gave them right back and I expect them to do just that one more time on Saturday in the re-match.

What a chop aka baseball swing by Tkachuk on Draisaitl in OT! No call smh… #LetsGoOilers #Oilers #Flames #BattleOfAlberta pic.twitter.com/9wjVsjW6Mm

— Sports Archivist (@ArchivistSports) January 30, 2020

Even after getting his ass absolutely handed to him, Matthew Tkachuk forgets he’s not wearing that St. Louis Cardinals uniform anymore and goes Bobby Clarke on Leon Draisaitl’s arm. With George Parros and Stephen Walkom in attendance no less! Shameless human being he is…

So I guess this is an acceptable hockey play too @NHLPlayerSafety ? pic.twitter.com/EcHcfrLYJC

— Oil In My Veins (@OilInMyVeins) January 30, 2020

Then Mark Knee-ordano decides, and the refs let him, to “obstruct” McDavid… This is brutal officiating and you can be sure they knew it at the time too because Connor (and most of the Oilers’ top-six) let them know… That was the leg that blew up when McDavid flew into the net last year too… So you can understand the league’s best player and money-maker’s frustrations.

Just got word from my source that Zack Kassian loves it in Edmonton and it's possible he could take a discount on a 4-5 yr deal.

Somewhere around $3M is the number I was passed along.

He wants to win a championship with the #Oilers. pic.twitter.com/QkWWW9lY38

— 𝑩𝑳𝑯⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (@BeerLeagueHeroe) December 19, 2019

December 19th eh?… Anybody else have this info our earlier?

Our beloved power forward Zack Kassian re-upped with the Oilers for four more seasons! His cap hit will be $3.2M and if you’re complaining about that, you might need to get checked out. Even if he’s a 30pt winger for that entire time, he’s worth it. And as the salary cap rises, the money will mean even less. The Oilers now have one more player locked up who wants to be there and was kind enough not to ask for any trade protection. Kudos to Oilers GM Ken Holland for his work here.

But let’s get into the numbers. We’re 50 games in and this last ten-game stretch was a beauty for the Oilers and it really propelled them up the charts in a majority of the categories. Here are the numbers as of January 30th, 2020.

Record: 28-18-6 (16th)

Fascinating that the Oilers have never had a powerplay lower than second or a penalty kill lower tan 9th in the league this year. That’s some fine coaching, players buying in, and the GM bringing in the right guys to play the right roles.

Still no improvement on the faceoff dot mind you. If the Oilers are going to make the playoffs, they’re going to need a center who can win draws. If Phillip Danault (MTL) was a righty, he would be a dream add in my opinion. Maybe Nick Shore could be had out of Winnipeg? He’s winning draws at a rate of 55% this year. Problem is, he brings ZERO offense to the ice. My personal pick is still Luke Glendening from Detroit. An older player with another year on his contract after this and Holland would have experience dealing with him. He’ll bring more offense than a Nick Shore undoubtedly. Reckon Cooper Marody and one of Edmonton’s unsigned college or European prospects would be enough to bring him to Edmonton?

In addition to that, I really want to see them pick up a volume shooter. With the amount of firepower they’ve got, there’s no reason they should be sitting in the bottom quarter of the league in shots for/GP. So if Anaheim’s Ondrej Kase is available, scoop him up. He’s shooting under 6% this year and he’s a career 9.7% shooter and he only makes $2.6M for another year after this.

Do you think adding a better puck mover on the back end would help out some of those stats? Just a rental though. With Evan Bouchard making a mockery of the AHL right now, he’ll be on his way next season and this is a player who rarely misses a pass out of his zone. I’m talking about players like Sami Vatanen or Erik Gustafsson. Do you think that they’d be upgrades over what Edmonton has currently? It’d be a pricey add though. If the cost to acquire Brendan Dillon is a 2nd-round pick AND a prospect, you can be sure any defender better would see the ask set at a first-round pick.

The above stats are courtesy of NHL.com.

These numbers don’t mean a whole lot in the overall scheme of things, but I like to look at them to see where the Oilers sit in the land of grit and hard work. I would say the boys were too busy scoring and controlling puck possession to focus on wearing down the opposition. You?

The Fancies (5×5)

If any of these metrics are unfamiliar to you, please consult the Natural Stat Trick Glossary.

This is great news if you’re a believer in the fancies! The shot metrics climbed marginally but the goal metrics spiked hard. I guess when you go 6-2-2, your scoring stats are going to look good. This pretty much coincides with the Oilers calling up Kailer Yamamoto and sticking him on the wing with Leon Draisaitl and Ryan “Raging Nuge” Nugent-Hopkins, right? That roster move single-handedly provided the team with a second line for the first time in I don’t know how many seasons.

Now, I would argue, the Oilers have three of four lines set.

Neal-McDavid-Kassian
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Nygard-Sheahan-Archibald

They’ve just got to work on that fourth line and it’s been a mishmash of players this year. Jujhar Khaira, Patrick Russell, Sam Gagner, Gaetan Haas, and Alex Chiasson have all spent time there in 2019/20 but there needs to be some upgrading in this group and at this moment in time I’m hearing that it’s Khaira that will most likely be sent on his way. Chiasson and Gagner have met expectations in their limited TOI and I believe the club is high on Haas and Russell as depth options.

With Joakim Nygard leaving the game against Calgary after blocking a shot at the end of the first period, I wonder if that opens up a very convenient window to call up Tyler Benson and stick him with Sheahan and Archie? It’s worth it to see what he’s got in my opinion and if he’s not ready, send him back or possibly use him to bring in a young impact player via trade. Something to keep an eye on nevertheless.

The Next Ten Games (51-60)

• vs. St. Louis Blues (31-12-8) – I’m not 100% sold that the Oilers will be focused on this game seeing as they play Calgary the next night. They have played well against the league’s best this season at times though. Can McDavid and Draisaitl beat the Blues in this one like they did at the All-Star game? (WIN)
• @ Calgary Flames (27-19-6) – If you thought last night’s game was fun with all the fights and cheap shots, this game is going to be bonkers. It always seems to be in Calgary. Losing three times to the Flames and that post-game celly by Rittich will be eating away at the Oilers. They’ll be doing their damnedest to bring home the two points. (WIN)
• @ Arizona Coyotes (26-21-5) – The Oilers put up a touchdown on the Coyotes right before their bye-week and I don’t imagine that sat well with Taylor Hall and co. That said, they’re on a bit of a slump in their last ten (4-5-1) and Edmonton is flying high as of today (6-2-2). On the other hand, just when the opportunity presents itself to the Oilers they usually take the night off. (LOSS)
• vs. San Jose Sharks (22-26-4) – Man, this Sharks team is bad. With Vlasic, Karlsson, and Burns on the back-end no less… Can you believe the Golden Knights fired Gerard Gallant to hire San Jose’s old coach? I think this will be a scheduled win for McDavid’s boys. Watch out for shenanigans from Evander Kane and Timo Meier. (WIN)
• vs. Nashville Predators (23-19-7) – Since the Preds hired NJ’s old coach, they haven’t been scoring much and that’s not a good sign when you go into Edmonton. Couple that with Pekka Rinne’s game falling right off of a cliff and the Oilers should be able to walk away with two points. (WIN)
• vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24-21-6) – The Hawks are coming on as of late and I think they could pull this one off in Edmonton. Maybe Drake Caggiula does the ex-Oiler thing and scores. (LOSS)
• @ Tampa Bay Lightning (30-15-5) – This will be a fine test for the Oilers. Tampa has found their stride at the right time and are looking very dominant. Might we see another ex-Oiler in Pat Maroon score or drop the flippers? I expect McDavid to be flying in this one. (LOSS)
• @ Florida Panthers (28-16-5) – This match-up is going to be a fun one. The Panthers have some really fun players to watch like Huberdeau, Barkov, and the very underrated Vincent Trochek. Which Sergei Bobrovsky might we see if he gets the call though? (WIN)
• @ Carolina Hurricanes (29-18-3) – It’s hard not to like what they’ve build in Carolina. Andrei Svechnikov is already a scoring phenom at 19-years-old and it’s hard to overlook the wonder Finns (Aho/Teravainen), right? How will this team be sans Dougie Hamilton though? Can the Oilers sweep back-to-backs again? (WIN)
• vs. Boston Bruins (29-10-12) – Edmonton goes from one team who doesn’t lose in OT to a team that seemingly only loses in OT. The Oilers gave the Bs a pretty sound beating last time they played and we’re close to the trade deadline here so I’m not sure what the rosters will look like. I like Boston for this one though. (LOSS)

(Standings as of January 20th, 2020)