July 14, 2021 /

Edmonton Oilers Talk: Adam Larsson In, Ethan Bear Out?

Coming from an Edmonton Oilers point of view, BLH provides you with excerpts from the latest NHL news, rumors, and speculation from all of the internet’s best sites including Spector’s Hockey, The Fourth Period, NHL Trade Talk, The Hockey Writers, Sportsnet, The Athletic, TSN and more!

From The Oilers Rig (Alex Thomas)

Are Oilers In Danger Of Losing Adam Larsson?

For weeks now, the narrative from Edmonton media and with our sources here at ‘The Oilers Rig‘ was that a contract between Larsson and the Oilers was only a matter of time. With just four days until expansion draft protection lists are due, there is now some doubt that Oilers GM Ken Holland will get Larsson to sign on the dotted line.

Even the best plans fall apart sometimes, and the feeling is that something has gone amiss in these negotiations. Perhaps cold feet on Larsson’s side? After all, this is his first trip to unrestricted free agency and likely the last time he will be this sought after. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins are all monitoring the situation ahead of free agency opening on July 28th.

BLH’s Thoughts: Envision this scenario, the Edmonton Oilers re-sign Adam Larsson before the expansion draft protection list deadline (Friday IIRC), then protect him, Keith, and Larsson this leaving Ethan Bear unprotected. The Oilers then trade him to Seattle for futures in return for the Kraken to take James Neal or Mikko Koskinen in the expansion draft. 

It should be noted that Ethan Bear played for the Seattle Thunderbirds during his junior days and he wasn’t exactly one of Dave Tippett’s favorites this past year with his inconsistent play. 

I did reach out to ask some folks in the know and they told me that it was an interesting concept but unlikely to occur.

From The Athletic (Jonathan Willis)

Duncan Keith, by the numbers: What are the chances the former Norris winner bounces back with the Oilers?

There’s a contradiction in Duncan Keith’s recent NHL stat line, a contradiction best explained by citing two statistics. First, Keith averaged 23:25 per game last season as the most-used skater and No. 1 defenceman on the Chicago Blackhawks.

According to Evolving-Hockey’s expected goals model, Keith was in the bottom one percent both defensively and overall among NHL defencemen last year. By these charts, he’s a riverboat gambler who gives up way more than he creates and a liability in shorthanded situations.

Put simply, either the numbers are very wrong or his coach was.

One place the Oilers could give Keith a break is on special teams. He’s had lousy scoring results on the power play in four of the past five seasons, and this season was the first time in five years that Chicago’s power play topped 6.0 goals per hour while he was quarterbacking it.

On a more encouraging note, there are signs that Keith still has serious offensive game. He’s been much better than the average NHL defenceman at driving scoring chances off defensive-zone starts the past three years.

In all likelihood, he’ll improve significantly on the numbers he posted last season in Chicago, but given how bad they were mere improvement isn’t enough.

He’s 38 and it’s been three years since he was on the ice for more goals for than against at five-on-five; six years since his expected goal share was above 50 percent.

BLH’s Thoughts: In 2018-19, Keith was on for more goals for than against 5v5, in 2019-20, he was on for more goals for than against in all situations. Forgive me if I’m a tad confused. In fact, the 38yr old has had a positive GF% at every strength for all but four of his fourteen seasons. (source)

I’m not a stats guy (per se), so I’m probably doing something wrong to find different numbers. 

With that in mind, I also did a very primitive surface level dive with the fancy stats because I wanted to see if I could find a way to shine a good light on Keith over the past three seasons. So what I did was I went to Natural Stat Trick and I refined my search results to defensemen who played 3000 regular season minutes of 5v5 from 2018-19 to 2020-21 in the relative format.

Vs the other 77 skaters found, here’s where Keith landed compared to his peers with regards to some of the “on-ice” metrics,

  • CF%: -0.35 (50/77)(Ivan Provorov had a -1.10)
  • FF%: -0.95 (57/77)(Nick Leddy had a -5.07)
  • SF%: 0.52 (37/77)(Brett Pesce had a -2.50)
  • GF%: 2.37 (28/77)(Jeff Petry had a -3.10)
  • xGF%: -1.01 (56/77)(Drew Doughty had -1.62)
  • SCF%: 0.19 (39/77)(Morgan Rielly had a -1.03)
  • HDCF%: -2.30 (63/77)(Nick Leddy had a -5.87)
  • HDGF%: -2.60 (52/77)(Jeff Petry had a -4.04)

(Source)

The conclusions I draw from that elementary look are the following:

  • The scoring chances for and the goals for on Keith’s team increase when he’s on the ice.
  • The possession metrics do not show him a good light but not a horrible one either. 
  • As an individual, Keith struggles in “high-danger” scenarios

My feeling is that Mr. Keith has more success when he’s paired with a Brent Seabrook or Niklas Hjalmarsson type of player and ever since he lost his partner and was shackled with rookies, it’s not been a good ride for him. Might the Oilers have a stay-at-home defender like that to pair with him next season?

Interesting note, if you go to that link above and take some time reading, you’ll find that Nick Leddy is at the bottom of nearly every one of the metrics I used above and that makes me chuckle a bit because there were some analytics types on the socials who got somewhat hard when they found out the Islanders are looking to move Leddy to clear cap room…

From The Daily Goal Horn

Steven Stamkos available?

Darren Dreger was on TSN1050 and mentioned during his spot that he is hearing Steven Stamkos’ name as a possible trade candidate out of Tampa.

The Lightning are celebrating back to back Cups knowing this is the last time this team will be together. They are way over the cap and changes are coming. Depending on if they can trade players like Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn, Tampa may be forced to think bigger. Why? Because Brayden Point will be a RFA after next season and Tampa wants to lock him up to an 8 year deal in the $9 million range and up.

So we could see Steven Stamkos waive his no trade clause as a means of helping his team one last time. Some believe it could happen. He has 3 more seasons at $8.5 million and would automatically go to the top of GM’s wishlists.

BLH’s Thoughts: Man, this would shake up the NHL if the Lightning could move Stamkos’ entire ticket. Now, he wouldn’t waive his NMC last year, so why would he do it this year and who would take an aging $9.5M LW in this economy? From his perspective, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to do this. 

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CategoriesArmchair GM Beer League Hero Edmonton Oilers NHL Rumors

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Beer League Hero Written by:

I'm the Beer League Hero! I am from Camrose, Alberta but I make my home in Taipei City, Taiwan. I've been through the ups and downs and the highs and the Lowes, the Bonsignores and the McDavids, the Sathers and the Eakins but I'll never leave my Oilers, no matter what! They're with me until the end and then some. GO OILERS GO!