If you haven’t heard, Edmonton Oilers defensive rock Oscar Klefbom could very well be done for the upcoming 2020-21 NHL season. At the moment, he’s considering whether or not to have surgery on a chronic shoulder problem that could see him on the sidelines for up to the next six months.
This is a problem for the Oilers but it does speak to why Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s name has been connected most frequently with the club this off-season.
Now, I have my own feelings and some news of my own that ties in with this but first I want to show you some quotes from The Cult of Hockey’s Kurt Leavins from their most recent podcast that are going to shed new light on what the Oilers allegedly have planned going forward with or without Klefbom. Don’t worry, Bruce McCurdy and David Staples are in there too.
Oscar Klefbom’s Future
From what I understand from the organization, they LIKE Oscar Klefbom, however this is a guy that has played 66, 61, and 62 games the last three seasons. He’s ALWAYS hurt and it’s hard to count on a guy who you’re using as your 1D when he’s only playing 4/5ths of the season and I think at some point the Oilers decided if we’re going to move forward we have to have someone who we can count on day in and day out. I think OEL has only missed 12 games over the last seven years.
This is really hard to argue against and the durability argument strengthens Darnell Nurse’s case as well. I don’t believe Darnell has missed one game in the last three seasons.
Next season’s schedule, if it is a compressed one, has the potential to be hellacious if it’s indeed true that there are going to be a lot of back-to-backs. A team that doesn’t have durable players and depth is going to sink.
They don’t think they can count on Klefbom health-wise and the McDavid clock is ticking. They’ve got to do something here and I don’t think they feel like they’ve got a couple of years here to just bring the defense along without Oscar Klefbom, who looks like he could be going on LTIR. I think they feel like they need to do something now to keep the train moving forward.
OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON
I’ve been told he’s willing to waive. That’s not an issue and the ties with the coaching staff, think not just Tippett as there’s two guys behind that bench that OEL has played for a really respects. So there’s no issues with him coming here (Edmonton).
He’s very very durable and I think it’s fair to argue that he’s not an elite 1D anymore but certainly he’s a 1D. Maybe he’s somewhere between (the top) 15-20 but on the Oilers he would immediately become your number one defenceman by a mile.
He never misses any time. His TOI is 30 seconds off his career average, and the other thing I’d point out is OEL lost a parent and from what I understand, he was very very very close to that parent. We saw the impact of losing a father had on Adam Larsson. Time heals all wounds they say and if that’s the case, there’s some explanation why perhaps his play has been off a little bit the last season if we kind of put one and one together I think we get two.
At one time he was one of the top-5 defensemen in the NHL. I don’t think he’s that now but I strongly believe he’s a (top) 15-20 and a #1 everyday of the week and twice on Sunday on an Oilers club and I think he would be for at least the next 3-4 years which is that time that is clicking on the McDavid clock.
I’ll be honest, I haven’t watched a lot of Coyotes games… Ever. I can’t stand their broadcast crew and their team is so bloody boring. So it’s really hard to comment on whether or not I feel like OEL is a number one defender. When I look at his numbers over the last three years (standard practice since Natural Stat Trick only allows you to see three seasons at a time) I notice his offensive numbers aren’t much better than Nurse’s but his defensive metrics blow Nurse’s out of the water.
OEL is a stud on defense and the opportunity to acquire a dman of this ilk doesn’t come around often. Especially at the rumored price.
THE TRADE RUMOR
What I suspect is that Arizona is asking for a defensive prospect in addition to Kris Russell. I’m sure they would like Broberg or Bouchard. I’m positive the Oilers don’t want to give up either one of them.
Would you make this deal in a flat-cap era where Arizona is really shy on cash if you put Dmitri Samorukov in that deal (first round pick and Kris Russell)? I think Arizona would think about it.
So yes, I think they’ll want a prospect but I think Ken Holland will do everything he can not to make Evan Bouchard a part of that deal.
Yeah, I’m made to understand that they aren’t making the trade if Bouchard or Broberg needs to be included and that’s the right thing to do UNLESS the Coyotes want to send back Viktor Soderstrom which I can’t see them wanting to do.
THE TRADE PROPOSAL
Here David Staples gives Leavins two separate trade proposals and asks him if he would make them if he was GM.
Proposal #1: first round pick + Philip Broberg + Kris Russell
Leavins: No.
Proposal #2: first round pick + Evan Bouchard + Kris Russell
Leavins: Yes.
To me, Ekman-Larsson is a true #1 and Broberg can be. I think Bouchard has the chance to be a really good PP guy but as an overall defenseman, I don’t think he’ll ever be more than a 3/4.
This is a very interesting analysis of the two young defensemen. Evan Bouchard is not an aggressive defenseman but he is very capable of holding his own. I find him to be way more cerebral than most give him credit for and going forward, maybe that will be a good thing, a better thing for Edmonton’s defense. Plus, nobody passes like Bouchard nor do they have his shot…
Bottom line: Edmonton needs to keep these two.
THE WRENCH
Let me throw one more wrench into this. I’ve kept saying that the Oilers could send Arizona a first. I didn’t say their 14th overall pick. I’m not ruling out the Oilers sending someone else out this year for a first so they’d have two firsts. So they’d still have one and one to deal and that helps move out salary.
The more sources I talk to the more I get the sense that one of Edmonton's top-four defensemen is going to be traded for a package that includes a 1st rounder this year. #Oilers
— B.L.H. (Edmonton Oilers Enthusiast) (@BeerLeagueHeroe) September 30, 2020
WHO WOULD THEY MOVE OUT?
Who on your club do you think you could get a first for and let’s agree that McDavid and Draisaitl are the only two untouchables on your team.
Staples: Darnell Nurse.
Leavins: Yep. You sure could.
Staples: You could get a first for RNH.
Leavins: Yes, you could and I think you could’ve for a healthy Oscar Klefbom but you couldn’t right now. Anybody else?
Staples: Ethan Bear. You could get a low first round pick for Ethan Bear I believe.
Leavins: Maybe, yeah. So, here’s the wrench I throw into the works, don’t think there’s just one first, think there’s two firsts in play.McCurdy: If they trade Nurse and Klefbom’s Hurt, OEL is going to have to play about 45 minutes a night.
Staples: I think they have tried out Caleb Jones as a 2nd pairing defenseman two years in a row. I don’t think it’s unexpected or untoward to expect him to be a 2nd pairing defenseman this year.
Leavins: And think of how many $1M defensemen are going to be kicking around the NHL this fall/winter in a flat-cap era.
Oh my… Did I get that right? Will the Edmonton Oilers put Oscar Klefbom on LTIR and trade Darnell Nurse for a package that includes a first-round pick and then rotate Caleb Jones and another defenseman (Erik Gustafsson?) on the 2nd pairing this upcoming season?
Well, moving Nurse frees up $5.6M and Klefbom to LTIR is another $4M-ish. Then you trade Kris Russell and that’s ANOTHER $4M gone. In total, that’s $13M+ moved out, and my friends, that’s how you fit in an OEL or an Alex Pietrangelo…
