This supposed lack of speed isn’t a concern for the Edmonton Oilers and I’m not just saying that because they’ve got the fastest player the game has ever seen playing on it. I’m saying that because when I look at the standings of the Pacific division I see three of the oldest, biggest, slowest teams in the NHL plodding their way to ANOTHER playoff appearance.
San Jose, Anaheim, and Los Angeles still use heavy hockey to win games. Argue that heavy hockey is dead all you want to but it’s very much alive and until Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Thornton, Vlasic, Kopitar, Doughty, etc. have gone elsewhere or retired, it will continue.
I know you’re thinking about Vegas right now but let’s be real. Their success is a mirage. they will not be repeating that success next year unless they decide to trade for more players on contract years. Next year that chip on their shoulder will be gone. They’ll no longer be the “rejects” who have something to show their former GMs, they’ll be the prey instead of the hunter.
I think the definition of speed is rarely defined when pundits and bloggers write about it too.
They’re not talking about end-to-end speed, they’re talking about fast jitterbug-like players who can get in on the forecheck and are smart with the puck and make the right play without needed 3-5 seconds to get it done. You’re seeing that sort of puck-moving with Ethan Bear during his audition right now. He gets the puck, moves it. Gets the puck, moves it. He doesn’t wait about, he gets rid of it and usually, the pass is right on the tape. Perfecto!
**Quick sidenote: I don’t remember who brought it up but one of the MSM on the radio/podcasts offered this hypothetical, what if Ethan Bear was the one being showcased and not Oscar Klefbom?**
And I’ll reiterate this once again. Speed is the flavor of the day folks. The coaches will find a way to counter it, they always do. Watch, we’ll see a positioning revolution where the term “defensive specialist” will come into play. You’ll have players who can keep up with McDavid and Matthews but are mind-blowingly good at defense.
The game evolves on its own. You’ll get fathers teaching their sons to be the anti-McDavid. To be the player who goes out and shuts down the other team’s best player because in minor hockey there’s always a ringer and if you shut that player down, you shut their team down and that player will get noticed. Especially with the current onus on players to be the next Jonathan Toews.
Could you imagine a player as physically gifted as a Connor McDavid but as defensively talented as Patrice Bergeron?
I believe smart intelligent clever hockey players will be the future of hockey. High hockey IQ will be a requisite in the near future.
That said, the Oilers must absolutely upgrade their wings and their defense. There’s no question there. They might need to upgrade their goaltending too. But how do they propose doing it and how much of an upgrade is truly required?
Who do they move out to upgrade on the wing though after a year like this? Is Pat Maroon considered an upgrade? The Oilers had interest in Austin Czarnik, a zippy winger that plays for the Bruins, around the deadline; would he be an upgrade? He’s an RFA this summer.
One reason I’m not concerned to very much about the Oilers wings is that Puljujarvi will be another year older and I see him starting to take control again on that 3rd line. We’ve got Kailer Yamamoto coming. Be that from the start of next season (I hope not) or 30 games in (I hope so), he’ll be helpful from the skill and IQ area. If Slepyshev re-signs, that’s more skill in the bottom 6. Pontus Aberg looks to be more middle-6 but his speed and a little more comfort in the new system will be key next season.
What if the Oilers add Brady Tkachuk, Filip Zadina, or Andrei Svechnikov this summer? How would that change the perception of the Oilers lack of speed and skill on the wings?
It’ll change it drastically.
Might we see Zack Kassian moved or Drake Caggiula? Have we seen their PK TOI cut down lately? I feel like they haven’t been killing penalties recently. And I ask about those two specific players because Kassian’s contract seems to be a tad heavy for his role and Caggiula can’t put two good games together.
*Sidenote #2: Man, if Caggiula and Pakarinen could just alternate games, I think they’d look a helluva lot better. To me, as least, they can’t put a run of good games together and are way more impactful after a healthy scratch. Do you agree?*
Jason Gregor wrote an intriguing article over at OilersNation (about the only writer apart from Paige that I read from them these days) and it tells that the wings aren’t the problem, the defense is.
I took away a couple of very telling points that should tell us what direction the Oilers are pointed.
The Oilers are tied for 10th in 5×5 goals. They have 130 5×5 goals in 66 games (1.97 goals/game). Last year the Oilers were tied for eighth in 5×5 goals for with 166 in 82 games (2.0 goals/game).
They are basically scoring at the same rate despite Milan Lucic not scoring for 29 games, Oscar Klefbom going 33 without a goal and losing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who was their leading goal scorer when he was injured on January 13th, for 18 games.
The Oilers have 109 5×5 goals from their top-nine forward goal scorers (McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH have 52), while the Pittsburgh Penguins have 102 5×5 goals from their top-nine forward goals scorers (Malkin, Kessel and Crosby have 56 goals).
Wh-What?!
These sort of numbers are free to the public. These aren’t cooked up or obtained from some “black box” analytics company but to me, EVERYONE is ignoring this.
So, IF the Oilers come back to the surface a bit next season and their special teams recovers, Talbot plays like we know he can, Lucic scores like he was before Christmas, Puljujarvi takes another step… You get the point, right?
This season WILL be the aberration, not the 103pt one.
And of course the 5×5 team defence is a concern. Last season they allowed 140 goals at 5×5, ninth fewest in the NHL, but this year they are 27th. They’ve already allowed 141. Cam Talbot hasn’t been as sharp, but the defensive zone breakdowns have been more noticeable this year. The Oilers have reverted back to being a trainwreck in their own end — too many errant passes, too many wrong reads, and turning the puck over too often.
Does a healthy Talbot, Sekera, Klefbom, and Larsson change that?
I mean, those are the 4 MOST important players on the Oilers back-end and if they’re not healthy, they’re not able to do their jobs at 100% and that, in turn, results in corner-cutting. Which helps nobody.
The powerplay started well, going 21.4% in their first 20 games, but since then it’s been a mess. The PK was terrible for the final 68 games last season, 78%, and got even worst this season.
This falls squarely at the feet of the coaches and there’ll be no mulligan’s for them this summer. The special teams is the hill they chose to die on and die on it they will.
Speculation about Paul Coffey as head coach of the #Oilers from Elliotte Friedman.
I can see Coffey as an asst. coach, but head coach? Coffey in no way qualified for that role.
Hard to imagine this is a possibility.https://t.co/xnKBEnS32g pic.twitter.com/s6t3abeQQ2
— David Staples (@dstaples) March 9, 2018
So, my theory is that Paul Coffey was brought in by Gretzky to get the skinny on the dressing room. He’s hanging around the team more and getting a feel for how the players are feeling about the coaching staff AND he’s helping with the powerplay. Of course.
The players respect Coffey and I think it’s Gretzky’s hope that they feel comfortable enough around him to tell him what’s going on in that dressing room. Gretzky is slowly working his hands into the team and I’d be willing to be that whatever changes come this summer will be run through him.
Going back to the idea of upgrading, the defense does need it but I feel like it’d be a lot easier to deal from the top and upgrade from there because those will be the players that other teams will want, right?
Lowetide says that you get good players and you keep good players. But what if I want better players? Can I do that by dealing my average players?
If Oscar is dealt, I hope they make it a right proper hockey trade and bring back something the team needs like a PP specialist, something Klefbom is not by virtue of his 4 goals in 450 min on the PP (that’s career!). He shoots a lot but rarely is a threat from the blueline on the PP.
Krug, Spurgeon, Dumba (!), Faulk, Barrie, Gostisbehere, Ristolainen, Oliver Ekman-Larsson etc. These are all the types of players we should be hoping for this summer.
When Klefbom is on, he’s on. The problem with that is that he’s only had one season where he’s been… on. He’s most known for not being healthy, right? He’s played nearly 300 games (think around 250 if we’re nitpicking) and we’re most likely seeing true value in the Swedish dman. At worst he’s a no.4 and at best he’s a no.2 I reckon and there’s no shame in any of that but the Oilers are in a pickle, self-made pickle, and value is going to have to go out for some to come in.
Chiarelli’s record is spotty at best when it comes to these trades and I have no problem saying that.
If he decides to sit on this roster and see what he’s got 20 games in, I don’t think I’d have too much of a problem with that but if things go wrong, it’ll cost him his job. But if a slow moving Oscar Klefbom is the ONLY problem on D next season, the Oilers could handle it.
I’m of the belief that Gretzky expects a splash this summer, hence the Klefbom/RNH rumors and now the word is that their 1st round pick WILL be in play depending on where they land in the lottery and Lowetide is (has been) throwing out Puljujarvi’s name recently.
I don’t see Pulju being moved, he’s only 19 and McLellan is finally using him in the right role (3rd line plus 2nd PP unit) and I think Chiarelli is a huge fan. How it took McLellan the entire season to figure that out is beyond me. It seems this year he’s been late to the ball on damned near everything.
I don’t know if they can outright trade that pick for a player with the way the sit under the cap but it could give them a “get out of jail free” card if they want out from under a large contract be it Lucic’s or Sekera’s or Russell’s as unfortunate as that is depending on how you feel about those players.
What about sending Lucic and the Oilers 1st rounder this year to Ottawa for Mike Hoffman and the 1st rounder Ottawa got in the Brassard trade from Pittsburgh?
Edmonton wouldn’t be able to add a potential “impact” player in the back end of the 1st round but they’d get some cap relief and an upgrade on wing plus they’d still be able to add to the pipeline.
I reckon Gretzky sees value in those players (Lucic, Russell, Sekera) though.
Speaking of prospects, my boy Sean Ryan (@theoilknight) has been doing up some pretty Oilers-centered draft guides over on his site. To date, he’s finished the OHL and the WHL and next up is the QMJHL! Check them out because they’re about as deep and informative as you can find for free these days.
Here’s a taste of Sean’s report:
Ty Smith (Top 15 overall) – LHD. Smith is a smart, fast, puck moving defenceman with great offensive instincts & leadership qualities. That makes him an extremely coveted player. He can Quarterback a Powerplay by using his low, hard, accurate shot that seems to get through more often than not and has tremendous passing and vision to set up his teammates. Defensively, despite a smaller frame he holds his own. He seems to make good reads & is physical when he needs to be. Like most 18 yr olds he could use more consistency and needs to get stronger but compared to his peers he appears to excel. Great at skating the puck right out his zone and is capable of those long stretch passes. He would be a dream pick for the Oilers at #7 if he were a Right shot D. Even so, he appears to be a great fit for Edmonton I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he does ended up being their guy come draft day.
Oh and another friend of the blog, Mike from The Oilers Live Podcast has another pod out with Oil on Whyte writer Eric Friesen. Check it out below!
