I’ve spoken about this before but as we near the NHL entry draft in Florida things are becoming more clear to me. Whilst in Sunrise for McDavid Day the Oilers need to acquire a goalie. Whether that is for next season or 4 seasons down the road, trade or draft, it’s imperative that the Oilers set their goaltending future up right.
Tag Archives: NHL Entry Draft
Making a case for David Musil
Reflecting on the Oiler’s 2nd Pick in 2011
As the most anticipated NHL draft in Edmonton Oilers’ history rapidly approaches, a quiet subplot looms in the background. Connor Mcdavid is surely a slam dunk for the number one pick and eventual generational talent, however, the concern remains: will there be any gems in rounds two through five, the ones every team needs to build a Stanley cup winner?
The 2011 draft is one that has drawn the critical eye of Oiler fans when in the second round, future impact NHL talents Boone Jenner and Brandon Saad, were passed over by the Oilers scouting staff in favor of a stay at home defenseman with the Vancouver Giants, David Musil.
To this point David Musil has played limited games in the NHL (two, to be exact) and questions about his lack of foot speed continue to dog him. Despite his detractors, there are enough positives to support the belief he may develop into the physical defensively sound rearguard the Oilers sorely need.
Of course you can’t argue there were better players taken after Musil, but as far as defenseman taken in rounds two and after, his development is more than comparable. Keep in mind, if Musil does succeed in making it as a pro, an ideal stay at home defenseman doesn’t get a lot of attention with his play. If you don’t notice him, it means he’s done his job.
And as far as progression goes, Musil’s has been steady. He followed up a strong final year in junior with the Edmonton Oil Kings (7-16-23 points in 48 games) with an . . . okay first year at pro in 2013-14 (2 – 10 – 12 and -2 in 54 games). And last year had a very solid season, posting 11 points in 65 games with the OKC Barons as well as improving his plus minus 12 points to plus 2.
But it was when Musil was given a cup of coffee with the big club at the end of last season that some eyebrows were raised. Not by Musil’s flashy play, but with his steady confidence in the limited minutes he received, as well as showing the ability to do something the majority of Oiler defenseman seem unable or unwilling to do: physically stop the cycle of opposing forwards.
As for his much maligned skating ability, I didn’t notice him lagging that far behind in the two NHL games he played. However, most agree it will be an area that requires improvement. I’m not an NHL scout, so they’re probably right. But the good news is that in today’s advanced athletics he can improve upon his footspeed, he just has to be willing to work on it.
It’s in the genes
And on that end, Musil’s bloodlines indicate he has the character and work ethic to overcome this limitation. Not only is there father Frank Musil who toiled 13 seasons as a journeyman NHL defenceman, but also Uncle Bobby Holik who had a lengthy NHL career being one of the first euro-power forwards. None of David’s relatives were known for their flash, but were hard-working physical pro hockey players, which Musil is on pace to be.
But if there were better forwards passed over in the second round, was there a slam dunk better defenceman available? The quick answer to that question is, not really. The criteria for a significantly better D-man pick would be one chosen in the second round or later of the 2011 draft, and who has played at least one full season, or 80 games. At this point, no one really stands out significantly.
The most advanced D-man pick from the 2011 draft picked outside of the first round I could find would be Nikita Nesterov (fifth round pick in 2011) of the Tampa Bay Lighting, who has played 27 regular season games and 17 in the post-season in 2015 and will likely be promoted to full-time duty next season. But he’s sub-200 lbs, and not likely what the Oilers need in terms of physicality.
Conversely, Musil is 6’3, 204 lbs., and has the physical tools he needs to be an effective NHL defenseman . . . as long as he can improve his skating. Look for him to get a longer look this year, and after one more year of seasoning in the minors, a roster spot.
Several years after the 2011 draft, rumors persist that Musil Junior indeed wasn’t the Oilers scouts’ choice in the 2nd round of the 2011 daft, and that they favored Boone Jenner. However, then GM Steve Tambellini apparently insisted on drafting a defenseman and here we are. Four years later the Oilers are still in desperate need of physical defensemen, and while Musil is taking his time getting to the NHL, he should be just what the Oilers need when he gets there.
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9 – San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks find themselves in a rather unique situation comparative to years past. After missing the playoffs, as well as the perceived controversy in both the locker room and front offices, it’s safe to say the Sharks are ready to make a few changes. They already have some good young pieces in Mirco Mueller, Nikolay Goldobin, Tomas Hertl, and Matt Nieto, but they’re still a few pieces away from a rebuilt top six. One positive they have going for them is 26 year old pivot Logan Couture. Having a player like Couture alleviates some of the stress associated with finding a top 6 center. After making the rocky relationship between management and Jumbo known to the public, It’s possible he may have seen his last home game in the Shark Tank. Others who are rumoured to be on the block include Patrick Marleau and Brent Burns. Throw in Pavelski and Vlasic, and we could see a full on rebuild. As for the 9th pick, there’s a few directions they may end up going. Mathew Barzal’s name has been tossed around, however I don’t believe he’d be a good fit. Much like the Avs, the Sharks defensive depth is suspect, but the answer lies with Zach Werenski. Perhaps it would be in the best interest of both the Avs or the Sharks to move up because the chances of Werenski making it past the Jackets are very low.
Draft Day Gameplan
– Acquire a top 15 pick. Stars and Panthers may have interest in Burns/Pavelski.
– Move Joe Thornton for best possible return. A first (likely late) plus a good prospect may get it done.
– Address the crease. The Sharks do have a decent amount of forward prospects, so moving picks for a goalie like Talbot would be smart.
– Look at moving up. If Hanifin/Provorov falls, look to get in the top 7.
Sharks Big Board (Without McEichel)
1. Dylan Strome
2. Noah Hanifin
3. Ivan Provorov
4. Mitchell Marner
5. Zach Werenski
6. Mikko Rantanen
7. Pavel Zacha
8. Mathew Barzal
9. Lawson Crouse
10. Kyle Connor
Who do they take?
With the Jackets poised to grab a defenceman, it’s unlikely one of the big 3 make it past pick 8. If they’re looking at forwards, Barzal, Crouse, even Yevgeni Svechnikov would be good options. When it comes down to it, Lawson Crouse is the guy they go with.
Darkhorse?
In a year where the first round is as deep as it is, it’s hard to pick out a real “dark horse” per say, but two names I’d keep an eye on are Jansen Harkins of the Prince George Cougars as well as Everett’s Noah Juulsen.
10 – Colorado Avalanche
With a mere 10 days remaining until Peter Chiarelli announces Connor McDavid’s name as the newest Oiler, I’ll take some time to look at the top 10 teams and their game plan heading into the draft.
The Colorado Avalanche do not necessarily have a plethora of young prospects in the pipeline, but by no means do they lack elite, young talent. In the past six or so years, the management core has assembled a unique group of forwards which includes the likes of Nathan Mackinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, and Ryan O’Reilly. The top 6, for the most part, is in place, however they could still use a right winger to play alongside future superstar Nathan Mackinnon. Where the Avs lack depth and upside is on the blue line. Sure, they would love to grab a guy like Noah Hanifin or Ivan Provorov, but that’s not happening without a bit of an overpayment. Luckily for the Avs, this draft is littered with solid defensive prospects after Provorov and Hanifin, which leads me to the most likely target for the Sakic and Co. University of Michigan defenceman Zach Werenski had a monster season this year, leading the Michigan blueline as a freshman. He also chipped in an impressive 25 points, and played a big role on the USA World Junior squad. With Barrie and Johnson locking down the right side, a future with Bigras and Werenski patrolling the left side may mean a deadly top four in Denver. If, however, the likely scenario occurs in which Werenski is taken in the 6-9 range, the Avs will have a pile of forward prospects who are rype for the picking.
Draft Day Gameplan
– Use the 10 overall pick. If the big 3 D are gone, my list would have Rantanen at the top, followed by Meier, Zacha, and Crouse.
– Avoid any trade that involves bringing in Dion Phaneuf. There will surely be a lot of talk around bringing him in, but he’s a guy you don’t want around that young core.
– Address the lack of forward depth by drafting offensive minded players in rounds 3 and 4, such as Korostelev, Speers, Trenin, and Gagne
– Pick 40 has to be solid. I’d avoid centers, but BPA is never a bad option. Keep an eye on Fischer, Dunn, and Senyshyn.
All in all, I would avoid making any major deals unless you’re bringing in a defenceman in the Josi/OEL stratosphere.
Avs Big Board (Without McEichel)
1. Noah Hanifin
2. Mitchell Marner
3. Ivan Provorov
4. Dylan Strome
5. Zach Werenski
6. Mikko Rantanen
7. Timo Meier
8. Pavel Zacha
9. Lawson Crouse
10. Yevgeni Svechnikov
Who do they take?
I find it unlikely that Werenski and Rantanen will remain, so you have to look at Timo Meier and Pavel Zacha. If it comes down to that, Pavel Zacha is the guy.
Darkhorse pick?
The Colorado Avalanche are in a spot where they could reach a bit, but if I’m choosing a true dark horse in this spot, it would be Jacob Larsson.