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Oilers Poking Around Three Dmen + TPE Hockey’s September Top-31 for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft

Today Josh Morrissey signed a two-year bridge deal worth $3.15M per year to basically set the marker for Darnell Nurse and the Edmonton Oilers.

I can’t see Nurse is going to get much more than that. The Oilers have been holding strong at $3M and Morrissey’s deal might bring that up a bit but it certainly shouldn’t bring it anywhere near the $4M valuation that Anton Thun has of his client.

Then there’s this from our friend Bruce McCurdy replying to an excellent idea from Supernova:

Like I said yesterday on Twitter, I wouldn’t be surprised if Darnell Nurse was on the plane to Germany but he didn’t play because he missed all of or the majority of training camp because hi agent only sees short-term dollar signs.

Plan B

Chiarelli was asked if there was a “Plan B” the other day and he said yes. I imagine that plan includes sending out feelers on such defenders as Tyson Barrie, Justin Faulk, and the newly-minted free agent Jake Dotchin.

Jake Dotchin is a new one and I haven’t heard what really happened with him and the Lightning but he must’ve really stepped in it in order to get thrown on unconditional waivers. To be clear, as far as I know, his contract hasn’t been terminated yet. Dotchin has cleared unconditional waivers though so the next step is cutting Dotchin loose.

Hockey teams are usually pretty lenient and don’t want anything to do with NHLPA filing grievances on their players’ behalf. It’s a weird situation but regardless, I asked one of my sources what the deal was there and I was told that he’s a young guy and the Oilers like him.

Personally, I don’t see him as much better than Matt Benning and if we’re being truthful, wouldn’t it be more prudent to aim a bit higher than Jake Dotchin?

Max from TPE Hockey is back with his 2019 NHL draft prospect rankings for the month of September.

This time we threw in a little stat called “Age-Adjusted NHLe” and since most of the seasons haven’t started for these players, we’re using last year’s point totals to find our age-adjusted NHLe.

You can read about that here.

Draft eligible prospects don’t all play in the same league, and aren’t all the same age, so it doesn’t make sense to judge their statistics as if they do.

League/Age Adjusted Points Per Game can help us put all the prospects on even ground. To do this, we simply multiply the PPG of a player by two numbers: an age multiplier and a league multiplier. These multipliers adjust the PPGs of players to show how they would produce if they were all the same age, playing in the same league. In this case, that league is the OHL, the top Canadian junior league, and that age is exactly 17.

The numbers will look a bit odd, especially for the high-end players like Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko. I asked my friend Sam Happi (The Puck Authority and @DraftLook) about this and he said that the league translation factor, which is meant to represent the average player, doesn’t really do players like Hughes justice since they are so far above average. I’d also add to that that the competition from league to league can really vary. The SM-Liiga where Anttoni Honka and Kaapo Kakko play full-time is much more competitive than the USHL where Hughes plays most of his games or the BCHL where Alex Newhook plays.

So just keep that in mind when you’re looking at that. I do remember asking Rob Vollman about the USNTDP translation factor in Auston Matthews’ draft year and was told that since nobody makes the jump from that program to the NHL, there was no need to do up a factor for it… I imagine most people are using the USHL’s translation factor for the time being but I bet that’ll change in the future.

If you’d like a list of the translation factors for each league, click this link.

You can check out a little video before that and/or his previous summer rankings here.

1)  Jack Hughes C (USNTDP, USHL) – 179cm, 73kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 18pts)
The undisputed #1 pick will revolutionize whatever franchise drafts him. Jack Hughes is the brother of last year’s 7th overall pick, Quinn Hughes. Just like Quinn, Jack is an elite skater and reads the game better than anybody. Jack will spend this season with the USNTDP in the USHL. Hughes will rip up that league as last year he was the best player in the USHL at only 16.

2)  Kaapo Kakko RW (TPS Turku, Liiga) – 186cm, 82kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
Kakko is everything you want in a winger. He’s a big guy but sacrifices nothing because of it. He’s quick on his feet and just as quick thinking. Kakko is ultra-skilled and has all the offensive talent to become an elite NHL winger. Whenever he’s on the ice everybody knows it, he stands out instantly.

3)  Anttoni Honka D (JYP Jyväskylä, Liiga) – 179cm, 77kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 17pts)
Brother of Julias Honka, Anttoni is already a star in the Finish pro league at 17. Honka spent last year in the pros on JYP playing 20 games with them. At the start of this season, Honka became a top pairing defenseman for JYP. He played in the Champions Hockey League and stood out every game.

4)  Alex Turcotte C (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 88kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 10pts)
The two-way center out of the USNTDP played in the shadow of Jack Hughes, but that doesn’t diminish his game. Turcotte is a high-intensity player that combines speed, size, and skill with great defensive capabilities.

5)  Alex Newhook C (Victoria Grizzlies, BCHL) – 180cm, 83kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 8pts)
Newhook is all about speed. He can zip into the offensive zone and great opportunities for his team. Newhook is mainly a playmaker, but he does have goal scoring ability. He’s also good in the defensive zone and competes very hard.

6)  Dylan Cozens C (Lethbridge Hurricanes, WHL) – 191cm, 80kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 12pts)
The 2018 WHL Rookie of the Year is an all-around offensive player. Cozens is a big bodied center who is also very fast. He is mainly a goal scorer but does have playmaking abilities. Cozens has a sick release and super accurate shot.

7)  Kirby Dach C (Saskatoon Blades, WHL) – 192cm, 84kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
Dach was a standout at the Hlinka tournament where he was the best draft eligible Canadian. He is a pure playmaker who can drive offense for any team he’s on. He uses his vision of the ice to open spaces for teammates and create scoring chances.

8)  Raphaël Lavoie C/W (Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL) – 193cm, 87kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 10pts)
Lavoie is the first player hailing from the QMJHL. He’s a big guy who is super dangerous around the net. That combined with his shot allowed him to score 30 goals as a rookie in the QMJHL. Lavoie went to the U18 World Juniors last season and scored 5 goals in 5 games. He also was taken on the U20 Summer Showcase roster for Canada.

9)  Bowen Byram D (Vancouver Giants, WHL) – 183cm, 81kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 6pts)
The Vancouver Giants pick is a player that can control every part of the game. His skating, passing, and vision allow him to dictate what happens when he’s on the ice. Byram is also great on the rush he uses his speed, lateral movement, and hands to work around defenders.

10) Peyton Krebs C/LW (Kootenay Ice, WHL) – 180cm, 78kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
The 2016 WHL 1st overall pick is a small playmaker coming out of Kootenay. Krebs is a lot like Johnny Gaudreau. Krebs is an elusive player who can easily avoid physical play. He also has good hands, speed, and a wicked wrister.

11) Vasili Podkolzin RW (Vityaz Podolsk U17, Russia U17) – 181cm, 75kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
Podkolzin exploded at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. He led the tournament in points and goals playing with Russia. He showed his unbelievable highlight reel skill and clutch play. Podkolzin is super strong, and at top speed, he can’t be stopped.

12) Cole Caufield RW/C (USNTDP, USHL) – 168cm, 70kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 13pts)
The 168cm (5’6”) goal scorer is one of the most fun players to watch. Caufield was a goal a game with the U17 and U18 USNTDP teams. Caufield is electric but is written off because of his size. Even with his size, Caufield finished 2nd in points at the U17s only behind Jack Hughes.

13) Jakob Pelletier C/W (Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL) – 175cm, 72kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 12pts)
Pelletier was statistically the best player coming out of the QMJHL. He is an all-around offensive player who can make plays and score. He also has all the skating abilities to make for a great NHLer.

14) Cam York D (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 75kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
York is the star defensemen for the USNTDP. He played a lot with the U18 team and went to the U18 World Juniors. Even as a 16-year-old at the tournament he was the best defensemen for the Americans.

15) Ryan Suzuki C (Barrie Colts, OHL) – 183cm, 78kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 10pts)
The 1st overall pick of the 2017 OHL Draft is one of the smartest players and best passers in this draft. He makes plays that no one sees coming, it’s almost as if he has eyes in the back of his head. Like his older brother Nick who was recently dealt to Montreal, he has a solid wrist shot that can pick a corner from the dot.

16) Mikko Kokkonen D (Jukurit, Liiga) – 180cm, 86kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 4pts)
Kokkonen has had a great start to his first season in the Finish pro league. He’s gotten two nice assists in his first two games. Kokkonen has been leaned on a lot by Team Finland in international competition. If Kokkonen can continue to produce in the Liiga he will fight for a top 10 spot.

17) Simon Holmström RW (HV71 J20, SuperElit) – 181cm, 78kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
We could be talking about Holmström tearing up the SHL right now. Unfortunately, he is currently out with an injury. He was brilliant in the U20 Swedish league as a 16-year-old but didn’t get to play internationally because of injury. He is the strongest candidate to rise as he gets more exposure.

18) Philip Broberg D (AIK J20, SuperElit) – 190cm, 90kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 6pts)
Philip Broberg was the breakout player of the Hlinka tournament. He showed his amazing speed and skill on the rush. At that tournament, Broberg looked easily like a top 5 pick. Although, there are concerns with Broberg’s game. He had trouble producing in league play and international play before the tournament. Broberg needs to prove he can do what he did in the Hlinka on a regular basis.

https://twitter.com/NHLDraft2019/status/1039949613845958656

19) Trevor Zegras C (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 72kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 9pts)
Zegras is a dangerous player with the puck. He has stellar stickhandling, high caliber speed, and is very smart. He loves to rush the puck but sometimes turns it over in the neutral zone when doing this. His shot is also something to watch out for from the slot.

20) Tobias Björnfot D (Djurgårdens IF J20, SuperElit) – 183cm, 85kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
Björnfot has struggled a lot in international competition, but thrived in league play. This season he is starting in the U20 Swedish league and looks to try and crack the SHL roster for Djurgårdens. Björnfot is defiantly a player to keep an eye on this year.

21) Nils Höglander LW (Rögle BK, SHL) – 174cm, 84kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
While splitting time between the Swedish 2nd pro league and Swedish U20 league Höglander was on a point per game pace in the U20s before being moved up to the 2nd league. He is a primarily small and skilled player with a physical edge to his game, much like former superstar Theo Fleury.

https://twitter.com/coreypronman/status/953655644766253057

22) Maxim Cajkovic W (Saint John Sea Dogs) – 180cm, 85kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 7pts)
The 1st overall pick is this year’s CHL Import Draft was put on the map after leading the U18 World Juniors in points per game and was second to Jack Hughes in points. Cajkovic is an offensive-minded player with all the tools to be a big-time producer in the QMJHL this year.

23) Marshall Warren D (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 73kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
Marshall Warren is a perfect all around defensemen coming out of the USNTDP. Warren is one of the best athletes in the draft too. His skating allows him to play a two-way game as he uses it to defend and great space in the offensive zone.

24) Arthur Kaliyev LW (Hamilton Bulldogs, OHL) – 188cm, 86kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 10pts)
The U17 leader the OHL in goals and points is the top American outside of the USNTDP. Kaliyev is an aggressive power forward who was an important part of the OHL champion Hamilton Bulldogs.

25) Pavel Dorofeyev W (Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk, MHL) – 184cm, 74kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
Dorofeyev is a dangerous goal scorer out of Russia. His shot is his best attribute, but he is also very skilled. He was able to play on the Russian U18 team last year which is very impressive because the Russian program is known to heavily favoring older players. Dorofeyev scored 4 points in that tournament.

26) Blake Murray C (Sudbury Wolves, OHL) – 188cm, 81kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
Playing on a very weak Sudbury team Blake Murray managed to produce well for an U17 player in the OHL. Without much support on his wings Murray scored the 2nd most goals of U17 OHLers.

27) Dustin Wolf G (Everett Silvertips, WHL) – 183cm, 68kg 
Last year’s WHL break out goaltender has continued his great play into the WHL pre-season. Currently he is 3-0 with a .927 Sv%. Last year Wolf got some good time as the starting goaltender and managed to win the CHL Goaltender of the Week. The hit on Wolf is his size at only 183cm (6’0”). Wolf standout quality is his puckhandling. Last year at 16 he got 4 assists in 20 games. In my mind he is the best puckhandling goalie in junior hockey. For more info check out my full article on on Wolf and this year’s goaltending crop.

28) Matthew Boldy C/W (USNTDP, USHL) – 183cm, 79kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 1pts)
The American power forward is a monster in front of the net. Boldy also has very good playmaking abilities and offensive IQ. Boldy was unfortunately snubbed from being able to play with the U18 team at the USNTDP.

29) Albin Grewe C/RW (Djurgårdens IF J20, SuperElit) – 182cm, 80kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 7pts)
Grewe left a lot to be desired after last season with Djurgårdens J20 and international play. Despite this he broke out at the Hlinka and then has been great in the Swedish U20 league and is currently at a point per game pace.

https://twitter.com/NHLProspectsYT/status/1041496759195893760

30) Alex Vlasic D (USNTDP, USHL) – 196cm, 86kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 4pts)
Vlasic is an enormous shut down defensemen who plays a lot like Zdeno Chara. He uses his long stick to block passing lanes and has a booming shot. The cousin of the Shark’s shutdown defender Marc-Édouard Vlasic plays a lot like Marc-Édouard too.

31) Moritz Seider D (Alder Mannheim, DEL) – 192cm, 83kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 1pt)
The German monster playing the German pro league is one of the most interesting prospects in this draft. So interesting that I wrote an entire article on him.

https://twitter.com/NHLProspectsYT/status/1041500814676844545

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Edmonton Oilers, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects

TPE Hockey 2019 NHL Draft Profile: Moritz Seider (D) – German Destroyer

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In the past few years, a new force in hockey has risen. At the Olympics, in early 2018, Germany took the tournament by storm and got second only to the stacked Russian team. Despite the lack of NHL players in the tournament it still left an important impact on German hockey. The Olympic success showed the larger trend of the growth of German hockey in the past years.

In the history of the draft 72 German players have been picked and at least one from every draft since 2014. The first German player ever drafted, Orest Romashyna, was taken 3rd overall all the way back in the first draft in 1963. Although I won’t count that pick since the draft in 1963 was a joke, Romashyna didn’t play a single game and retired after finishing college at the Univ. Of Waterloo.

Other than Romashyna only five Germans have been picked in the 1st round and two in recent memory. In 2014, the Oilers very own Leon Draisaitl was taken 3rd overall and became the first highly touted German prospect in the modern era. Draisaitl was one of the first Germans to take the CHL route to the NHL. He came over to North America after being drafted to the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL through the CHL Import Draft. The other major prospect coming from German was Dominik Bokk in this past 2018 draft. Bokk took a different path than Draisaitl after going to Sweden to play for the Växjö Lakers (pronounced Vek-wah) in Sweden’s junior system. Bokk was drafted in the CHL Import Draft but was picked by the Prince Albert Raiders, the same team that Draisaitl played on. Although the belief is that Bokk only wanted to play for an OHL team rather than Prince Albert who play in the WHL.

Check out this shift-by-shift from Prospectshifts.com

This all brings us to the next top German prospect in Moritz Seider. Seider has decided to take a different path than either Bokk or Draisaitl. Despite being picked by the Owen Sound Attack of the OHL, Seider has chosen to remain playing in Germany. The German route to the NHL is pretty untested as the last high draft pick to come out of the German system was Marcel Goc back in 2001.

Last season Seider played in the DNL. “What’s the DNL?” I hear you asking, well the DNL is the under 19 German junior league. It’s part of the fairly weak main junior hockey circuit in Germany which explains why Seider is such an obscure prospect. He’s played in an unknown league where he hasn’t gotten much exposure. With that in mind, Seider played with Jungadler Mannheim in the DNL which is the best team in German junior hockey. They are the best team for the development of young players in the DNL. They’ve won the DNL title seven consecutive times and in the 18-year history of the DNL championship, they were the champions 15 times. They’re basically the London Knights of the DNL.

Seider will not remain playing for Jungadler Mannheim next year though. If all goes well he will play for the big club in Adler Mannheim of the DEL. The DEL is the top professional circuit in Germany. The DEL is actually quite a good league. Right now the Champions Hockey League is going on. The Champions League takes the best teams from around Europe (except the KHL) and puts them in a singular league. Currently, EHC Munchen of the DEL leads their group over big teams like TPS Turku and the Malmö RedHawks. So the DEL is a respectable league and seeing a 17-year old competing there will put Seider on the map.

Now that we know where he’ll play, let’s find out what he has achieved. Being German, Seider hasn’t gotten international exposure but has competed in World Junior tournaments. Seider got to play as a 16-year-old on Germany’s U18 and U20 World Junior teams. Both teams competed in the 1A division of IIHF competition which is the division right under the division with Canada, USA, etc. They played teams like Kazakhstan and Latvia who won gold and silver while Germany won bronze. For the U18 squad Seider recorded three assists and for the U20 team he put up one goal.

 In league play, Seider played quite well. He spent most of his time in the DNL where he scored 13 points in 14 games. He led all defensemen his age in points per game and was 10th among forwards and defensemen in points per game of players his age. He was also heavily relied on for huge minutes and played both on both the penalty kill and power play top pairing. Seider also got a short stint in the DEL playing four games and went pointless. He debuted in the league in late December of 2017 at 16 years old. Despite going pointless Seider still competed at that level while getting extremely sheltered minutes.

Moritz Seider’s accomplishments are good but not outstanding, his game is where he thrives. The two most notable attributes to him are his physicality and passing. His physicality is immediately noticeable. He’s a big guy at 6’4” (192cm) and 183lbs (83kg) and he uses that size very well. Seider loves to lay a huge hit, but sometimes take himself out of position. He is a feared player on the ice and you can’t put your head down around him. His physicality also helps him in the d-zone as he is a force around the front of the net. He’s also strong on his skates. Seider makes it hard for a forward to put up a screen as he can body them out since he’s so strong on his feet.

https://twitter.com/JanikBeichler/status/957275165750104064

Seider’s second notable attribute is his passing ability. The most pivotal part of his passing is his stellar ability to start a breakout with a great first outlet pass up the ice. He’s such a smart passer because he sees the ice so well. In an interview with his DEL team, Adler Mannheim, he said this about it. Keep in mind that the interview was in German so all quotes are translated and aren’t perfect.

“I would say that I have a good understanding of the game. I play a good first pass, engage in the offensive and see the open spaces where my teammates can run. The game with the puck and the game on offense are characteristic of my style of play.” -Moritz Seider

Seider is a very smart passer and rarely makes a bad decision with the puck. The only issue with his passing is that sometimes he takes too long to make his move. Otherwise, he stands out as one of the better passers in the draft.

 While passing and physicality are the most notable parts of his game, there is a lot more to him. Seider talked about his hard-working attitude and dedication to the game in that same interview.

“You just have to work harder than everyone else and I think that’s the case with me. While many of my teammates drove home after three or four hours, I pushed extra shifts. But you also have to be crazy about the sport. At home, I watched a lot of videos of my role models and paid attention to what differentiates them from other players, what they do better. I think that you also have to deal with your sport away from the ice. But I’m also very ambitious, never give up.” -Moritz Seider

Seider also talked about his role models, one of which is former Devils star Scott Neidermayer. Seider says he works to emulate is game after Neidermayer and play just like him. Another player he watches is Zach Werenski. He says he enjoys Werenski’s offensive prowess and considers his focus to also be on offense.

The focus on offense brings us to Seider’s offensive skill. His passing is the biggest attribute to his offensive game, but he is also a solid goal scorer. 6 of his 13 points in the DNL season were goals. His big body and strength allow him to really rip the puck. Other offensive strengths include his puck protection, top speed, play with the puck, and especially his play on the rush. Seider can start a rush with his outlet pass or take the puck up himself. He doesn’t have great explosiveness or acceleration, but once he gets up to top speed he is near unstoppable. Even with all this offensive skill, Seider is still more of a two-way defender with prowess in both zones.

Seider is all upside though. The biggest flaw in his game is his play away from the puck. When the puck isn’t on his stick or around him he doesn’t contribute much. In the offensive zone when the puck is deep in the zone he doesn’t do much at all. You can often catch him standing still and not contributing at all. While this isn’t a game breaking flaw it defiantly holds him back. We see with others top defensive prospects like Quinn Hughes they are always involved in some way no matter the situation. This is a part of Seider’s game that could make him great rather than good.

This all brings us to his draft position. Where does he go in 2019? Scouts are split right now. Many don’t know who he is and others have trouble judging him after he mostly played in an unremarkable league. Future Consideration is the only major scouting bureau with him listed in the first round at the #30 spot. Personally, in my upcoming rankings, he barely slides into the first round at #31. It’s very hard to analyze him at this point after spending last season in the DNL. Next year, likely in the DEL, we will get a better look at him and learn what he’s truly about.

*This profile is courtesy of Max from TPE Hockey. You can follow him on Twitter here for more coverage on NHL prospects!*

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