Monthly Archives: October 2015

Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Walter Foddis

What counts as a successful season for the Oilers?

During the pre-season, Connor McDavid was asked what he would consider to be success. His response: a “winning season.” I couldn’t agree more. Elliote Friedman of Sportsnet believes the Oilers being a playoff team is “crazy.” McDavid’s expectation, though, is realistic. For instance, if the Oilers finish with 9 overtime losses (ties), 36 regulation time losses, and 37 wins, that’s 83 points; 12 more wins and 19 more points than last season. With average goaltending, I believe the Oilers can do that.

However, because there is a lot of luck to winning games (38%), and sometimes significant randomness in goals even over an entire season, I would want a more reliable measure of success, which would be using the team’s shot metrics. As of last season, there is a new and improved Shot Attempt differential (SAT% or Corsi%), which war-on-ice blogger, Matt Cane, refers to as Weighted Shot differential. This metric involves giving more weight to goals than to shot attempts. At this point, the weight given to goal is an estimate. Specifically, we would attribute 5 times more weight to a goal compared to a shot attempt. Based on Kane’s analysis, this estimated weight seems to work well in predictive models of future success; out-predicting SAT differentials by a small, but statistically significant margin.

Last season, the Oilers had an even-strength score-adjusted SAT differential of 47.3% (ranked 24th). (Score-adjusted accounts for how shot differentials change based on the score of the game. Once teams get a lead, they typically generate fewer shots relative to teams who are behind.) Adding goals to the SAT differential, we have Weighted Shot differential of 51.5% (ranked 23rd). The Weighted Shot differential of teams ranked 14th to 18th ranged from 55.2% to 54.2%. If the Oilers were to move up 5 places, this would be about a 50% score-adjusted SAT% and a 54% Weighted Shot differential. I would consider these values a successful season regardless of the win-loss record. In terms of how close this is to a playoff team, teams with a SAT% of 52.5% have a 90% chance of making the playoffs.

But what about assessing the team throughout the season? Early in the season, I think a plausible index of improvement, or Progress Index, can be derived by comparing the shot metrics of a game to the previous season’s series. Specifically, we  can compare Weighted Shots (WghSh%; 1 point for goals, 0.2 points for shot attempts); Shot Attempts (SAT%; blocked, missed, and shots on goal), Scoring Chances (SC%; as defined by war-on-ice), and High-Danger Scoring Chances (HSC%; i.e., shots from the slot area). As usual, all the data is collected from war-on-ice.

In fact, I did this sort of comparison already in assessing the Oilers first two games.  The table below is example of this analysis. (For a detailed interpretation, follow this link.) What’s helpful about this analysis is that it shows the team’s performance relative to previous performance. For example, if the Oilers’ SAT% after a game is 48%, in absolute terms, this is an “unsuccessful” game. But if last season the Oilers averaged only a SAT% of 44% against the team, 48% turns out to be a 4% improvement (i.e., Progress Index = 4%).

[table id=17 /]

Once the Oilers play more games, we can compare different shot metrics to the previous season’s number of games in increments of 10 games. For instance, after game 10, we would compare the same shot metrics after game 10 of last season, and so on.

Like last season, about 2 to 3 times a month, I will be updating my Fancy Stat Power Rankings using Weighted Shot differentials at even-strength (80% of the ranking), along with a Shot-Attempts For (per 60 minutes) for power-play, and Shot-Attempts Against (per 60 min) for penalty kill. Special teams each account for about 10% of the ranking.  I post these rankings on Twitter, if you’d like to follow.

The everyday fan loves to see wins. Who doesn’t love to win? But unfortunately, because of the luck factor, we can’t use win/loss as a primary indicator of improvement. Instead, by using shot metrics, we have a more reliable measure of improvement; one that will predict future success and tell us if the Oilers are truly on the right track.

Thanks for reading. Please leave any comments or questions below. Question to the reader: Where do you think the Oilers will finish this season?

Edmonton Oilers, Edmonton Oilers Post Game Report, Madison Moroz, NHL

BLH Post Gamer- G8 Edmonton Oilers Vs Washington Capitals

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Tonight was a big test for the Edmonton Oilers, coming in on a three game winning streak and beating the Red Wings last game rather convincingly. But man oh man was it just a gong show from the puck drop, we knew it was going to be a shootout with the Capitals but I just didn’t expect it to be a slaughter. Washington was coming off a back to back and was starting their back up, Phillip Grubauer. Edmonton should have came out and forced the puck down their throats and wore them down as much as possible. Instead they tried to skate with them and continued to let Washington find themselves and keep themselves in the game. I felt maybe it was too much confidence coming into the game off a winning streak and at home, as well as not being fully prepared for tonight’s game.

Tonight the Washington Capitals used their speed, simple passes and broke out of their zone with ease and really exposed the Oilers defence. It was not a good night and it didn’t start off well as Washington CAPITAL-ized on a beautiful passing play finished off by Kuznetzov, who would go on to add two more and tack on two apples for a 5 point night. Credit to the Oilers though, they continued to battle back going shot for shot, goal for goal. The Oilers were matching the caps speed and utilizing it by continually putting pucks behind the defenders, winning the battles and getting a cycle or at the very least a strong possession shift. The first period was pretty well even though the Oil were down by 1 going into the second, they still managed to keep the shots even and there were no signs of capitulation.

https://twitter.com/myregularface/status/657730054957506560

Right off the bat in the 2nd they had a quick strike to tie it up! A power play goal coming from the RED HOT Connor McDavid. The crowd was jacked but it seemed all to all go down hill from there. The Oilers were caught flat footed and they were puck watching almost every chance they got. The legs just weren’t underneath them.

The Oilers had their moments in the second frame with a few power plays they should have capitalized on, but once again these were the demise of their own momentum. The Capitals potted 3 quick goals that went unanswered and that was that. I’m not sure Anders Nilsson could have done much on most of them, as he was getting little to no help all night. But that’s not to say he was standing on his head like the previous two games. Tonight no one was doing anyone any favors, even with an offence scoring 4 goals it appeared that everyone was falling complacent on the defensive side of the puck. A lot of the times tonight everyone o the ice seemed to be in La La Land as they were being hypnotized by the puck movement and skill of this veteran-laden Capitals team and it gave the Caps’ power house offence even more room to play with in the offensive zone.

It’s odd saying that the effort just wasn’t there, especially when you score four goals but the 3rd period was chalked full of uninspiring hockey. I mean anytime you score four you should be skating away with the victory. Not only that but not scoring on a two man advantage was the nail in the coffin. Bad habits crept into everyone’s game once they got down and the boys were gripping those sticks a bit too tightly. I can only imagine the sort of talk the coaching staff had with the group after the game and what’s going to be said and done at practice tomorrow.

Tonight was a learning lesson, growing pains, that no matter who you are facing and no matter how well your offence is playing that you can’t fall complacent and forget about the defensive side of the puck as teams like the Capitals will jump on every opportunity to create a scoring chance. One of the biggest factors tonight, was the unnecessary penalties they were taking, not just because they were down 3 goals, but because it was killing any and all momentum the team was building up.

It was just a horrendous up and down game, mistake followed by another mistake, followed by another. This is going to be a game they are really going to have to learn off of, pay attention to the moments they were caught standing still and/or out of position and figure out what to do to fix it. What happened tonight is something they need to make sure they don’t build bad habits off it. Find a solution, fix it, and move onto the next game and continue to improve. The Oilers were just outmatched tonight by what is arguably the best team in the east with all do respect to the Montreal Canadiens.

Tonights Three Beer League Heroes are:

1. Evgeny Kuznetzov – This is what Capitals fans have been waiting for, tonight he showed his dynamic speed, skill and talent. 3 goals, and 2 assists accompanied with 7 shots. He was by far the best player on the ice.

2. Ryan Nugent Hopkins – He played an excellent game tonight, 1 goal, 1 assist and played a great north/south game; he was strong in his own zone, was 73% on the draws and was winning every puck battle. Nuge is starting to play more and more on the PK and is becoming a key contributor to the NHL’ s #1 PK.

3.Nicklas Backstrom – Since returning from his injury he’s been red hot, he quickly showing why he is one of the best centres in the NHL. He showed his touch and speed when he got sprung on a break away and put away the second capitals goal, finished with 1 goal and 1 assist, but he was also all over the ice tonight, creating something on every shift he was out there for.

Tonight’s Golden Plunger award goes to….!

Teddy Purcell looked like the last few games since being demoted to the third line, that he actually found himself and was playing some solid hockey. He was playing a simple game, wasn’t trying to be too fancy and had some real nice chemistry with Korpi and Lander, that was until tonight, and when he got moved up on the top line and it seemed he was killing every drive up the ice, anything positive he was seemingly destroying it. I truly had high hopes for him, but he just cant seem to find his way especially when he starts to play on the top line, maybe his confidence is shot right now, either way he’s not doing the team much good.

Andrew Ference is in the same boat, he played okay last game, not bad for being out 4 games. Tonight it was just brain fart after brain fart with this guy. He took two unnecessary penalties, and killed the momentum the Oilers had on both plays. Twice tonight he watched an icing get rimmed around his side of the boards and just watched it go down the ice for an icing call. There were moments he was on his D partners side of the ice, essentially leaving the middle and the other side of the ice open. If not for the smarts of RNH and McDavid at times, it could have gotten a lot uglier had those lanes been wide open.

Overall tonight was just a bit of a disaster, there isn’t much more to say on tonight other than to make sure something like this never happens again. They need to be more disciplined against teams like this, stay focused and stick to the game plan and make sure they stay defensively aware and stick to the defensive side of the puck. The shots were kept low tonight, but there were just too many high quality scoring chances, no matter who’s in net, its hard when thats all you’re stopping all night.

The next game is this Sunday against the surging LA Kings who have won 4 straight, after starting the season 0-3. In the past few years the Oilers have always had trouble facing the big bad Kings. But how the mighty don’t seem so mighty anymore. With a new system in place, bigger defence and a much better offensively structured system accompanied by solid goaltending should, in theory, make this game a lot different than years past.

Tyler Toffoli ,the Kings leading scorer, is on fire as of late and if the Edmonton Oilers’ defence can keep his line and him in check, they should be able to walk out of there with a win. The game plan against the Kings isn’t going to be to dump and chase, but to use their speed, work the puck down low and keep their feet moving and cause the slower Kings to put themselves out of position. This will keep Kings’ netminder Jonathan Quick from moving side to side. They will really need to work the points in this game, activating when they can to create that 4th forward situation and getting as many pucks through on net, while crashing the crease. Jonathan Quick has a temper and hates nothing more then traffic in front of him and the Oilers need to exploit that and put some pucks past him.

Thanks you for reading everyone! I know tonight was a rough game, but let me know what you think by getting in touch with me on Twitter @madi39 or in the comments section below!

Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Zach Laing

Game Eight Preview – Oilers vs Capitals: Special Teams

GAME EIGHT VS CAPITALS

enigmatic russians.

TALE OF THE TAPE:

Game: Edmonton Oilers (3-4-0) vs Washington Capitals (5-1-0)

Location: Rexall Place, Edmonton

Time: 7:00 PM MT

Where to find it: TV: Sportsnet Oilers, Radio: 630 CHED

Edmonton Oilers Preview:

4 and 4! 4 and 4! 4 and 4!

That’s what I hope the Oilers will be after tonight’s matchup. The Capitals, who are widely considered to be Stanley Cup contenders, come into Edmonton after beating up on both the flames and the Canucks. It will a fantastic matchup. The Oilers with their number one (!!) ranked penalty kill will be put to the test against a firey Capitals squad who hold the third best power play in the league.

McYakuvid will look to continue their success together against a strong defensive group. To be honest, the pair blew me away in the game against Detroit. Nail looks like a whole new Yakupov and that is fantastic. The kid is a natural born talent, and I’m glad to see him finally get to play with a legitimate center.

The key to tonight’s game: get to 500.

The Otherside:

Goalie Philipp Grubauer will make his first start of the season. Washington is third in the NHL on the power play after going 0-for-2 in a 3-2 victory against the Vancouver Canucks on Thursday, its fourth win in a row. Forward Alex Ovechkin scored his fifth goal in as many games this season late in the third period to win it for the Capitals. The third line had the other two goals; left wing Jason Chimera scored in the first period and center Jay Beagle tied the game early in the third. “It was really the Beagle line, they were the ones that put the work boots on and just went to work, and they sort of pulled the rest of the group into the fight,” coach Barry Trotz said of Beagle, Chimera and right wing Tom Wilson. “We were able to tie it up and then cash in on a controlled breakout and two skilled players (Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov) making a pretty good play … but today we won because of the Beagle line.” Carlson extended his point streak to four games with an assist on Beagle’s goal. – nhl.com

Line Combos c/o Daily Faceoff:

Oilers:

Taylor Hall – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Rob Klinkhammer
Benoit Pouliot – Connor McDavid – Nail Yakupov
Lauri Korpikoski – Anton Lander – Teddy Purcell
Luke Gazdic – Mark Letestu – Anton Slepyshev

Oscar Klefbom – Justin Schultz
Andrej Sekera – Mark Fayne
Andrew Ference – Eric Gryba

Anders Nilsson

Capitals:

Alex Ovechkin – Evgeny Kuznetsov – TJ Oshie
Marcus Johansson – Nicklas Backstrom – Justin Williams
Jason Chimera – Jay Beagle – Tom Wilson
Andre Burakovsky – Chandler Stephenson – Brooks Laich

Brooks Orpik – John Carlson
Karl Alzner – Matt Niskanen
Dmitri Orlov – Taylor Chorney

Philipp Grubauer

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfCOJLRk2D4]

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Ryan Robinson

Taylor Hall-ing Some Major Ace!

How about that Taylor Hall? He’s gone from being in my doghouse to being someone I’m eagerly looking for each time his line is on the ice! Well good on him, I was getting tired of bagging on him and it’s about time he decided to show me up. I told you a while ago, if you’ve been following, that the McDavid Effect would have an impact on everyone… Hall’s firing on all cylinders, Yakupov has risen from the ashes of defeat, and the Oilers are living large!

Here’s a vlog from another Oilers fan who felt the same! Our buddy Ryan Robinson!

And here’s that sweet goal he scored during the home opener against St.Louis! Check out the Orange Surge!

We’ve actually got some 4L shirts over at the Beer League Heroes Merch Shop! Click the pic below and it’ll take you right to the shop where you can get all different styles of shirts in Men’s, Women’s, and Children’s. Not only that but in all sorts of colors as well. If you’re looking for orange to match the Edmonton Oilers SWEET third jerseys, you can find it in the Children’s size… Lucky guys…

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Mrazek’s In and the Oilers Will Win

Photo Credit to Andy Devlin

That’s exactly what I said on The Oilers Rig’s Podcast the other day and that’s exactly what happened. Now there’s no proof that’s actually the case, I mean what if Jimmy Howard were in net? Would the Oilers have won or lost, who knows? But I’m going to take this one and hold it close because such conditionally predicted wins don’t happen so often.

Thoughts on the game:

You had to know it the ConYak Connection was going to continue their hot play as of late given that first rush into the zone by Yakupov. I mean once Yakupov gets his legs going he’s going to try and make something happen and he’s at an all-time high for confidence right now. He blew by the Red Wing defender as if he was back in Sarnia taking on Junior players and with ease he got a pass off. To no avail but that was the first hint as to what was going to be a good night for the Russian.

Later in the game he got the puck in his zone and both teams were changing, he started to get wound up as if he was going to try and make a break for it as he would’ve done in years passed but he circled back and ate up enough time for Benoit Pouliot (who also had a great game) to get to the other blue line and that’s when Nail Yakupov unleashed a ridiculous zone-to-zone pass to spring Pouliot on a breakaway… It came completely out of left field for me but put a smile on my face. Yak is coming into his own folks… It’s going to be a fun year.

In the end, lots of MSM folks were saying that was Yakcity’s best game as an Oiler… I say maybe, maybe not. Even so, he came away with 2 assists on an evening in which he could’ve had much more and none better than the one below. I love how he hypnotizes Niklas Kronwall (the Red Wings best defender) with his stickhandling before sending a laser of a pass across the bow of the crease to Elk Point’s own Mark Letestu! (I once knew a girl from Elk Point named Candace. She played defence for the Augustana Vikings Women’s hockey team. Quite the character she was! She hooked me up with a teammate which culminated in a very awkward date…)

TGFT: Thank God for Talbot Photo Credit to Andy Devlin

So many things are clicking right now with this team and it would all be for naught without Cam Talbot and Anders Nilsson. Talbot saved the Oilers’ butts on more than a few occasions and was well rewarded with the 1st star of the game. 29/30 for a .966 SV% is not too shabby in my books.

Something that is beginning to irk me a bit is the amount of penalties the Oilers are being called on in ratio to the amount that could be called against their opponents. There were at least 5 potential Red Wings penalties that went uncalled and I’m starting to wonder if there’s some sort of bias within the reffing community against the Oilers because it’s pretty bloody blatant and the refs are always right there to see the infractions… Case in point, Taylor Hall getting hauled down in the Red Wings zone early in the game and then in the same shift getting called for a trip as he was backchecking. Ridiculous!

Meh… Oilers have the best penalty kill in the league right now, so call as many as you like but surely there’ll be a call from above to lay up a bit because the NHL’s new golden boy isn’t getting on the ice as much as they’d like… With that being said, McLellan did put McDavid out on the PK and he did great! His speed and already developed two-way game will do him wonders in any situation.

Speaking of players with speed and an already developed two-way game, Dylan Larkin is going to be an integral part of Detroit’s future and it’s mouthwatering to envision a time when he and Anthony Mantha are tearing up the league. McDavid is fast but Larkin just might be able to keep up. Boy can he fly! And he was trying his damnedest to exert himself on the Oilers but he’s not in McDavid’s class, not by a long shot. Lucky that he gets to play on the top line with future hall-of-famer Henrik Zetterberg and Justin Abdelkader though. His one real chance… Check it out:

This post wouldn’t be complete without mentioning “The Goal”… It was captured perfectly by the color commentator whose name escapes me right now but Connor McDavid’s first goal at home will forever be cemented in the annals of Edmonton Oilers history…

“OH WHAT A MOVE! WHAT A GOAL!”

That reverse bank pass from Yak to get the puck up to Pouliot and then the way McDavid held up Brad Richards enough and then pulled away from him with two steps was unbelievable. A legend’s move no doubt! Teddy Purcell managed to score one later but who’s kidding who, nobody is going to remember it and honestly who gives a flying fart.

I always believe you should leave on high note and there’s nothing higher in the NHL than that goal right now, so take care everyone! McDavid’s in the top 30 in scoring whilst Eichel is still sitting at 2 goals…

What was your favorite moment of the Oilers game versus the Red Wings?  Let me know in the comments below or on Twitter @beerleagueheroe!

Enjoy the game against the Capitals and I’ll see you on the flip side!

BLH