Beer League Heroes NHL Mock Draft: 1st Round

tkachuk oilerI figured that I’d better get this out before more trades get made and the 1st rounders start getting bandied about. I did a mock up of all nine of the Oilers picks here if you’re interested.

So here is my mock draft of the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. It’s a quick one because the profiles have been written and re-written over and over again. If you’re curious about a player’s profile I suggest you head over to The Hockey Writers or Steve Kournianos’ website. Lowetide also does a very nice job cleaning up all the noise in his posts on the draft.

  1. Tor – Auston Matthews (C) Zurich Lions – 6’2″ 216lbs
  2. Wpg – Patrik Laine (LW) Tappara – 6’4″ 201lbs
  3. Clb – Matthew Tkachuk (LW) London Knights – 6’2″ 188lbs
  4. Edm – Jesse Puljujarvi (RW) Karpat – 6’3″ 196lbs
  5. Van – Pierre-Luc Dubois (C) Cape Breton Screaming Eagles – 6’2″ 200lbs
  6. Cgy – Logan Brown (C) Windsor Spitfires – 6’6″ 220lbs
  7. Ari – Olli Juolevi (D) London Knights – 6’2″ 185lbs
  8. Buf – Jacob Chychrun (D) Sarnia Sting – 6’2″ 194lbs
  9. Mtl – Mikhail Sergachev (D) Windsor Spitfires – 6’2″ 221lbs
  10. Col – Clayton Keller (C) USNTDP – 5’10” 190lbs
  11. NJ – Alex Nylander (LW) Mississauga Steelheads – 6’1″ 178lbs
  12. Ott – Tyson Jost (C) Penticton Vees – 6’0″ 190lbs
  13. Car – Mike McLeod (C) Mississauga Steelheads – 6’2″ 185lbs
  14. Bos – Charlie McAvoy (D) Boston University – 6’0″ 198lbs
  15. Min – Kieffer Bellows (LW) USNTDP – 6’0″ 185lbs
  16. Det – German Rubtsov (C) Vityaz Podolsk – 6’1″ 190lbs
  17. Nsh – Dante Fabbro (D) Penticton Vees – 6’0″ 172lbs
  18. Phi – Max Jones (LW) London Knights – 6’3″ 205lbs
  19. NYI – Jake Bean (D) Calgary Hitmen – 6’1″ 170lbs
  20. Ari – Luke Kunin (C/LW) Univ. of Wisconsin – 6’0″ 173lbs
  21. Car – Julien Gauthier (RW) Val d’Or Foreurs – 6’4″ 225lbs
  22. Wpg – Riley Tufte (LW) Fargo – 6’5″ 210lbs
  23. Fla – Alex Debrincat (RW) Erie Otters – 5’7″ 165lbs
  24. Anh – Rasmus Asplund (C) Farjestad BK – 5’11” 176lbs
  25. Dal – Tage Thompson (RW) Univ. of Connecticut – 6’5″ 185lbs
  26. Was – Pascal Laberge (C) Victoriaville Tigres – 6’1″ 175lbs
  27. TB – Adam Mascherin (C) Kitchener Rangers – 5’9″ 192lbs
  28. Stl – Tyler Benson (LW) Vancouver Giants – 6’0″ 185lbs
  29. Bos – Logan Stanley (D) Windsor Spitfires – 6’7″ 225lbs
  30. Tor – Will Bitten (C) Flint Firebirds – 5’`0″ 170lbs

    Bonus:

  31. Tor – Carter Hart (G) Everett Silvertips – 6’0″ 165lbs
  32. Edm – Nathan Bastian (C) Mississauga Steelheads – 6’4″ 194lbs

You have no idea how hard these mock drafts get as the picks go on.

For the most part I took a look at each team’s prospect cupboards over at Hockey’s Future and took into account what they needed. It’s not brain surgery. If a team has the option of choosing for need, then fill a hole. If they can afford to take the best player available, voila! Take said BPA.

Feel free to comment on my picks in the comments below!

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2016 Beer League Heroes Extensive Oilers Mock Draft

This isn’t a mock of the first round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. It’s a mock up of who I’d pick in all seven rounds for the Edmonton Oilers. Much the same as what Lowetide does leading up to the draft on his site.

So what I did the other night was go through some of the sites I trust when it comes to the draft and the sites that had an extensive draft rankings list for reference. Those include:

  • Lowetide
  • The Draft Analyst
  • Draftsite
  • The Hockey Writers

I haven’t purchased my draft guides as of yet so that’s why you’re not seeing such

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resources such as McKeen’s, Hockey Prospect, ISS, or Red Line. It’s just me going through the lists from the top 250 or seven round mocks from the respected websites above. God bless the men that do these up to because it is a shit ton of work to do.

My method to the madness was going through these lists with and picking out the players they selected for the Oilers in their mock or the players that fell on the Oilers draft pick. You can see them below.

The actual draft pick numbers are still iffy. At draftsite.com they’ve got the Oilers at different draft spots than say Lowetide’s or Steve Kournianos’ and I think that is due to the Stanley Cup Final not being finished yet but Bill Plazcek is making an educated guess as to where those draft picks will end up. The picks in question are the ones the Oilers got from Pittsburgh and Florida in the 3rd round.

LOWETIDE THE DRAFT ANALYST DRAFT SITE

THE HOCKEY WRITERS

4 – Matthew Tkachuk (LW) 4 – Jakob Chychrun (LD) 4 – Matthew Tkachuk (LW) 4 – Matthew Tkachuk (LW)
32 – Logan Stanley (LD) 32 – Givani Smith (LW) 32 – Dennis Cholowski (LD) 32 – Cam Dineen (LD)
62 – Jeremy Helvig (G) 62 – Joey Anderson (RW) 62 – Connor Bunnaman (LW) 62 – Jeremy Helvig (G)
83 – Jon Dahlen (L – W) 83 – Luke Green (RD) 83 – Jordan Sambrook (RD) 83 – Andrew Peeke (RD)
90 – Tyler Steenburgen (C) 90 – Tanner Kasperick (C/LW) 90 – Matthew Filipe (LW) 90 – Benjamin Gleason (LD)
122 – Brett McKenzie (C) 122 – Greg Printz (LW) 122 – Brandon Hagel (LW) 122 – Ondrej Najman (LW)
148 – Steve Harland (RW) 148 – Colby Sissons (LD) 148 – Jonathan Ang (C) 148 – Matthew Cairns (LD)
152 – Vojtek Budik (LD) 152 – Zach Osburn (RD) 152 – Evan Sarthou (G) 152 – Ondrej Vala (LD)
182 – Loik Leveille (D) 182 – Jordan Sambrook (RD) 182 – Kristians Rubins (LD) 182 – Austin Osmanski (LD)

You can click on the names above each list and be taken to the site to which they originated. There you can read the write-ups on each player. Lowetide’s and The Draft Analyst’s are the best, Draft Site is a bit of crap shoot as not every player has a report done up for them and The Hockey Writers’ is just a list.

Now it took me a good three or four hours of scouring over the names and lists to finally decide what nine players I’d draft if I were the Oilers. The parameters I used where:

  • The Oilers are in dire need of righties in nearly every position.
    • Defense
    • Wing
    • Centre
  • The team needs offensive players coming up through the system to replace the Hall’s and the Eberle’s down the line.
  • The team’s goaltending depth is in shambles.
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Hockey’s Future says the Oilers have size and strength coming through the pipeline and multi-faceted wingers but it lacks depth at centre, a true powerplay QB, and an “elite” goaltender.

In my opinion the team did well to address character and players who play an “honest” hockey game when they drafted Ethan Bear, Mitch Moroz, David Musil, and Jujhar Khaira. But as I said above, the team really doesn’t have any true offensive wizards coming up. No Oliver Bjorkstrands or William Nylanders, Brandon Montours or Ville Pokkas, and it needs them coming through.

So here is my list of players I’d like to see the Edmonton Oilers draft at the end of the month in Buffalo.

 

Hayden Fleury and Matthew Tkachuk exchange pleasantries during the first period. Fleury took a two minute roughing call on the play. Rob Wallator/CHL Images

#4 – Matthew Tkachuk (LW), London (OHL), 6’1″ 195lbs, 57gp 30g 77a 107pts (NHLe: 49.25)
Tkachuk here is a no-brainer for me. The NHL is turning into a thinking man’s game and from all accounts Tkachuk is the smartest guy in the draft. During the combine he interviewed well and from the clips I seen of him, he’s very confident. Bob Stauffer did mention on Oilers Now this week that Tkachuk’s teammates said he was the glue that kept the team together. A man who can mix with the skillers and the grinders.

One thing that sealed the deal for me is something I heard from a scout when comparing Tkachuk and Pierre Luc Dubois. He said, and I’m paraphrasing here a bit, that Dubois can go looking for trouble whereas Tkachuk lets the trouble come to him. Perfect. With the way that the Oilers’ powerplay is going to be wrecking the NHL in the future, having players like Tkachuk and Caggiula on the team goating the opposition into penalties sounds A-OK to me.

With McDavid, Draisaitl, Hall, Nuge, Yak and Eberle currently on the roster, there’s no room for more drivers on this bus. I know that some of them will be moved this summer but the way that Tkachuk complimented Mitch Marner this past season bodes very well if he were to lineup alongside Connor McDavid in the future.

Lastly, he’s clutch.

#32 – Nathan Bastian (C/RW), Mississuaga (OHL), 6’4″ 208lbs, 64gp 19g 40a 59pts (NHLe: 24.19)
A right-handed beast of a forward who’s got a reputation for doing everything well but nothing elite. Bastian was the muscle on a ridiculously talented draft eligible line in Mississauga alongside Mike McLeod and Alex Nylander.

The reason I like Nathan Bastian for the Oilers here, and I struggled deciding between him and Cliff Pu, is because he’s a right-handed 5-tool man who can play wing or centre and from all accounts Bastian can play the game any way you want to. In short, the versatility and ability to play with high-end forwards is appealing.

“He’s 6’4, 210lbs and can play any forward position, providing a lot of versatility to a lineup. He’s also a great two-way player and a physical asset who is especially effective at using his body to gain possession in the offensive end.

Offensively, his biggest asset is his vision and playmaking ability, something that’s not common for a power forward.

If you’re patient, you might have a 6’4 two-way center who can really control the possession game and be a physical nightmare to matchup against.” – Brock Otten (OHL Prospects)

#62 – Frederic Allard (RD), Chicoutimi (QMJHL), 6’1″ 179lbs, 64gp 14g 59pts (NHLe: 19.65)
Peter Chiarelli is not known to go for players from the QMJHL on a regular basis but if Allard is available at 62, I think it’s a slam dunk he get this guy.

Federic Allard is a right-handed two-way defender who has shown a knack for putting up some points. It’s the “Q” albeit but nevertheless good prospects put up offense in junior. His size isn’t a concern although he could put on some weight. The assets that really convinced me of Allard came in the quotes from this report:

“Frédéric Allard is the General of the Chicoutimi Saguenéens on and off the ice.

On the ice, Frédéric was the guy calling and running the plays, particularly on the power play. Off the ice, he was the go to guy for the younger guys, particularly the young defense crew, for advice and support. He has an infectious likeability that makes others want to follow his lead.”

  • A power play quarterback with a right-handed shot; one who has produced the same level of offense or better as the top three ranked defensemen in the 2016 draft –Mikhail Sergachev, Olli Juolevi and Jeff Chychrun
  • The leadership and work ethic of those who are successful and that a good team depends on. He has the ability to develop the chemistry that winning teams have.
  • The will and ability to get better. Just ask Brent Burns what that can do to a fellow’s game over time.
  • The will to battle (think medium-sized dog that goes for the bone with the tenaciousness to get it) and the calmness and poise under pressure. – Eldon MacDonald (The Hockey Writers)

#83 – David Quenneville (RD), Medicine Hat (WHL), 5’8″ 183lbs, 64gp 14g 41a 55pts (NHLe: 19.02)
Quenneville is an undersized right-handed offensive defenseman who gained some of the spotlight during the U-18s from major draft prospects like Jakob Chychrun, Logan Stanley, and Dante Fabbro according to Steve Kournianos.

My research has brought me to the conclusion that David Quenneville is a Ryan Ellis/Tyler Spurgeon hybrid. His shot tends to get to the net more often than not, he’s a great puck-mover, and he’s not afraid to play physical.

“Quenneville has put up big scoring numbers and is one of the more skilled offensive defensemen in this year’s draft. He’s a very agile skater who can escape pressure well and activate into the attack. His puck moving is exceptional. He thinks the game quickly, has the hands to evade pressure, and doesn’t shy away from getting up into the attack. He doesn’t have a cannon from the point, but he always finds a way to get it on net and create issues for the opposition. Despite his size, I’ve seen Quenneville throw an occasional big hit, and he doesn’t shy away from puck battles. Defensively, he’s not a huge hole due to his IQ, but his size limits what he can do there.” – Corey Pronman (source)

I like David Quenneville because he’s yet another piece the Oilers are lacking and I’m not sure if Joey LaLeggia is going to pan out as he’s a lot closer to 25 years old that I’d prefer and he’s yet to get any traction in the NHL.

The best profile on the Edmonton-born defenseman comes from Chris Dilks here. I recommend you check it out.

Rob Walltor / CHL Images

#90 – Tyler Parsons (G), London (OHL), 6’1″ 184lbs, 49gp 2.33GAA .920 SV%
The Oilers depth at the netminding position could be described as “shallow” and that’d be a compliment. Laurent Brossoit is “that” close to becoming a full-time backup but behind him are newly signed college free agent Nick Ellis, Finnish project Eetu Laurikainen, with Zach Nagelvoort and Miro Svoboda requiring the spirit of Terry Sawchuk to possess them in order to have a chance at becoming Edmonton Oilers.

I love the way Parsons played during the Memorial Cup. Big time performances when the stakes were at their highest. The reports tell me stylistically he’s similar to Jonathan Quick in that he’s got reflexes like a cat and I dig that in a big way.

Will he be available at #90? Do you believe in miracles?

“He’s a true competitor who never gives up on a play. He tracks the puck exceptionally well and as such, his reaction time and ability to make that “highlight reel” save is fantastic.” – Brock Otten (OHL Prospects)

#122 – Hudson Elynuik (C/LW) – Spokane (WHL), 6’5″ 201lbs, 56gp 19g 25a 44pts (NHLe: 17.39)
I’ll be honest, the further down in the draft lists I went, the harder it got and as I look back at my list, I’m noticing a lot of sons of former NHLers.

With Elynuik I noticed his size and point production. It was a breakout year for him and by the looks of his stat sheet, he might be a tad fragile. He’s a pivot that can also float to the wing if need be. Chiarelli is building a team that will not be trifled with, a team that will win the possession battle through pure strength. Hudson Elynuik is part of that solution.

“Hudson Elynuik is considerably taller than his father, and at 6-foot-5-inches he is an extremely intriguing NHL Draft prospect. He has an excellent shot. His wrist shot is heavy and accurate, and features a very good release. Elynuik gets himself open in the offensive zone in order to take a pass from a teammate and set up for that shot. He also has a powerful one-timer. Elynuik also has the soft hands to finish plays in tight to the net, and is more than willing to battle for position to do so. He bangs in rebounds, gets tip-ins, and generally causes havoc down low. Elynuik is not a huge hitter, but he uses his size to win battles on the boards, to establish his position in front of the net; and to protect the puck in the cycle game and create plays for teammates. Elynuik plays a very straight forward game. His assists come from keeping possession and keeping the play going on the cycle. He is not the most creative playmaker, but does have the passing skills to make the safe and simple plays.” – Ben Kerr (Last Word On Sports)

#148 – Filip Berglund (RD) – Skelleftea AIK J20 (SWE J20), 6’3″ 209lbs, 43gp 19g 22a 41pts (NHLe: 15.63)
It was hard enough to find info on Elynuik, I had to contact a writer in Sweden to talk about Berglund and he didn’t even know about the overage draft-eligible Swede. What he did say though is that Skelleftea is a player producing factory (Adam Larsson, Melker Karlsson, Oscar Lindberg) and that Berglund should get some serious minutes with the pro team this year.

Filip Berglund’s size, shooting hand, and production in Sweden’s junior league impress me the most. Apparently he had some issues with injuries early on in his career but is over them now.

If the Oilers drafted Allard, Quenneville, and Berglund; they’d need not worry about right-handed dmen for some time. Of course there’s no guarantee any of them would work out but it would offer a layer of comfort the team doesn’t have at the moment.

#152 – Ty Amonte (RW) – Thayer Academy HS (USA – HS MA), 5’11” 185lbs, 30gp 17g 53a 70pts (NHLe: 15.3)
Ty Amonte is the son of retired NHL All-Star and Olympian Tony Amonte. The right-winger won the John Carlton Memorial Award for being the top male high school player in Eastern Massachusetts joining past winners Charlie Coyle, Brian Boyle, Cory Schneider, and Ted Donato.

The skinny on Ty is he’s a hard worker, possesses a good shot but is more of a playmaker. His skating needs work but he’s not afraid to play a physical game.

The way I see him is that he’s a late pick that has his eyes set on a NCAA career before anything, which is fine by me because as it stands Amonte is a project at best and could use the extra development. Not only that but I put a tad bit more pedigree in bloodlines.

Amonte is committed to Boston University for the 2017/18 season and according to this report, next season he’ll be suiting up for the Penticton Vees. Here are some highlights.

#182 – Rodrigo Abols (C/LW) – Portland (WHL), 6’5″ 188lbs, 62gp 20g 29a 49pts (NHLe: 17.49)
The overage Latvian was supposed to be drafted last year but got passed over and then the Canucks tried to sign him ala the “Tkachev” route and were shut down. Don’t know if he’d last this long with Vancouver’s hard-on for him but if he did, I’d have zero issues with the Oilers picking him up.

“Rodrigo Abols is a big guy who does not shy away from pinning a few guys to the board. It is not as if Abols is a lanky guy who does not have the weight to hit with, either. At 185 pounds, he is a legitimate NHL body.

Secondly, he has great speed and hands that have been displayed at the international level. His fluid skating is deceptive at times and his hands are quick when they need to be. His hard shot also compliments his skill set very well.” – David Joun (source)

Conclusion

So at the beginning I said the team needed:

  • righties: check!
  • offensive players: check! (barely)
  • goaltending: check!

After the first round the selections should be about addressing team needs. This team needs as many right-handed shooters as it can get its hands on. Most notably on the back-end but with the forwards are lacking as well. If the name of the game is balance, then this is the way to go about it. Right-handers have more perceived value due to lack of supply. If I recall correctly, it’s about a 60/40 split in terms of lefties to righties and until that number evens out I reckon it’d be good on the Oilers, or any NHL team for that matter, to invest heavily in them.

I put a lot of emphasis on size with my picks now that I look back at it and I believe that would fall in line with what Chiarelli is trying to do with this team. If they can develop the Lucic’s or the world, he won’t have to sign them or he can trade them to the GM’s who still stuck in 1991. I don’t have any problems with the skillers, in fact I love watching them but I just feel that the Oilers are about to become a team everyone hates to play against, whether that be due to the likes of Hall, McDavid, and Draisaitl beating them on the scoresheet or due to Maroon, Nurse, and Kassian attempting to murder them on a nightly basis.

The transformation is coming. Embrace it.

I have no idea where any of these players will land and I’m probably way off base with where I’ve got players going apart from say Tkachuk. Maybe. I’ve just been making semi-educated guesses and the whole blogging thing is all for fun anyhow. Fan speculation at its finest. So don’t believe a word I say. Go out, do the legwork, and create your own opinion on the players.

These are my picks. Debate them at your own risk.

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Goodbye Hall/Nuge, Hello Lucic?

 

Milan Lucic is sort of the physical embodiment of what Peter Chiarelli stated from the get-go needed to happen in Edmonton. He wanted to get bigger, more competitive players… I do think if he goes to free agency the Oilers are going to have a solid opportunity to bring him in, but they’re going to have to move somebody out in the process because they’ve got to address that back-end as well. – Bob Stauffer (June 3rd Edition of Inside Sports w/Reid Wilkins)

Well Stauffer is making waves again. If you believe what he’s saying above and that Lucic has been in Chiarelli’s sights from the beginning, we’re in for one of the biggest team culture changes since Gretzky was sold. Out with the skill and in with the ill… Tempered. Hockey player.

Now if you read into that quote above a bit, there are two players and only two players on the left-wing that fit the description of somebody that has to be moved to address the back-end.

Taylor Hall ($6M until 2020) and Benoit Pouliot ($4M until 2018).

I’m of the impression that Pouliot was nearly traded to Anaheim along with Yakupov for a mystery return. We’re left assuming it was Vatanen and Maroon. Maroon finally made it over and it seems that he’s taken a liking to Pouliot’s old spot on the roster next to Connor McDavid.

During the season I got the distinct feeling that Oilers head coach Todd McLellan became frustrated with Taylor Hall on more than one occasion and the rumours are running rampant that Hall is joining the list as one of the players most likely to be leaving Edmonton this summer.

TSN’s Frank Seravalli spoke about Hall, Nuge, Ebs, Yakupov, and the Oilers’ 1st rounder in the upcoming NHL draft on Friday’s edition of The Lowdown with Lowetide.

Here’s the thing. IF the Oilers are intending on signing Milan Lucic to a 6x6M deal (for example), that is going to change the complection of the roster completely. The Oilers have almost always been a run and gun, throw defense to the wind sort of team. And it’s gotten them a whole lot of nothing in the last 10 years and now with McDavid running the show and the team failing to rebuild around Taylor Hall, will we see him moved to upgrade the defense? Will the Oilers finally get that brooding power forward that the fans have been clambering for since Bill Guerin and Jason Arnott were in Edmonton?

I want to throw a hypothetical at you.

Say that Lucic to the Oilers is a done deal. Now the team chooses to move Hall because theoretically he’s going to bring you back the most value. The Oilers could choose to go after PK Subban before his NMC kicks in. But do you think they could get Subban for Hall straight up? I don’t. I think they’d have to add simply because wingers don’t have the value that defensemen do. Subban is a Norris Trophy winner and they’ve already got Pacioretty running the cart on the Habs 1st line LW.

The Habs love trading their captains mind you.

So, we move on from PK. Erik Karlsson isn’t going anywhere, so you can scratch that idea off the board. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, no… Drew Doughty, no… Victor Hedman, no… Basically any elite level NHL defenseman is a target to far to reach because there are ZERO teams looking to move their no.1 dmen. Name two if you can. The only one I can think of is Montreal and they’re insane. But we’ve been hearing a lot about four other dmen.

  • Hampus Lindholm (ANH) – RFA. Can’t see the Ducks adding Hall’s salary nor losing their best young blueliner to a division rival and for the same reason, I can’t see Edmonton wanting to play Hall six times a year.
  • Jacob Trouba (WPG) – RFA. It’s possible that maybe something could be struck with the Jets but Trouba has fallen off a bit lately and hasn’t recovered. Also, he’s looking for 1st pairing money ($6M/yr) and that isn’t happening.
  • Tyson Barrie (COL) – RFA. He’s at the top of the trade rumour charts at the moment but with Landeskog, Duchene, MacKinnon, etc. Do the Avs want to add another expensive young forward? Surely they’re going to want to add a defender.
  • Justin Faulk (CAR) – ($4.83M AAV ’til 2019) Here is a team that is in dire need of an impact forward and according to some pundits in the YEG, the ‘Canes are ready to put their faith in the likes of Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin, Noah Hanifin, Ron Hainsey, Michal Jordan and James Wisniewski…

So for argument’s sake, at the draft, let’s say the Carolina Hurricanes are willing to offer the Oilers a multitude of deals such as:

A) Justin Faulk and their two first-round picks in 2016 (#13 and 21)
B) Justin Faulk, Sebastian Aho (W/C), and a 2nd round pick in 2016 (#43)
C) Noah Hanifin

We know that the Oilers prospect cupboard isn’t teeming with burgeoning NHLers right now apart from MAYBE Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira, and Jordan Oesterle but that could change. I’m aware that trading Hall for anything less than Alex Ovechkin will probably result in a drop in some offensive and possession stats and I’m okay with that because I believe the team would grow as a group a bit more if there was one less chef in the kitchen. No stats to prove that of course and I suppose you can’t change what you can’t track but if trades were made with calculators at the forefront, wouldn’t they be easier to make?

Anyways, say they choose option A. The Oilers would have the #4, #13, and #21 theoretically. They could come away from the draft with a completely re-stocked prospect cupboard. Not only that but Chiarelli would totally redeem himself of last season’s draft trade debacle.

  • #4 – Matt Tkachuk/Jesse Puljujarvi/PL Dubois/Jakob Chychrun
  • #13 – Charlie McAvoy/Mike McLeod/Julien Gauthier/Clayton Keller
  • #21 – Max Jones/Tyler Benson/Alex Debrincat/German Rubtsov

Not only that but then the Oilers hold the #32 pick as well where they could pick Carter Hart, Boris Katchouck, Lucas Johansen, or Cliff pu.

But it doesn’t stop there because they’ve got three 3rd round picks to boot! The likes of Sean Day, David Quenville, Evan Fitzpatrick, James Greenway, etc. could be Oilers.

They could also choose to move those draft picks for roster players. But the more bullets Chiarelli has in the chamber, the better the Oilers’ chances are of finding a hockey player that will play 100 games for them in the future.

But take this overhaul a step further and say they sign 27-year-old Jason Demers to a respectable 5yr deal worth $4.75M per annum. That’s more than doubling what he makes now. So then you plug Demers into that hole on the 2nd pairing above and voila! A respectable Edmonton Oilers roster that is capable of challenging for a playoff spot and arguably more importantly, the roster is built in such a way that it allows it’s prospects the necessary time to develop properly.

Let me know if I’ve missed anything but the fictional Oilers roster would look like this after all is said and done:

A couple of drawbacks (depending on how you see it) include having a hair over 950k in cap room, no way to sign a backup keeper for Talbot, no RH’d one-timer off of the wall on the PP, and a shat ton of LH shooters…

I think the team could save some money by LTIR-ing Ference and/or trading Reinhart.

Peter Chiarelli is bound to make the Oilers roster one that teams fear playing against and at the moment, they are not that… At all… If Hall or Nuge, Ebs or Yak have to go, then so be it. I welcome a change to the make-up of this team because for ten years they men running the show have been trying the same thing over and over and it simply isn’t working. You NEVER build a team from the wings inwards… And I’d prefer the wingers be dealt before the centers personally but that’s a conversation for another day.

Draft day, please hurry.

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Malkin It For All It’s Worth

The other day on Hockey Central Nick Kypreos made it known that he thinks that this will be that last season that Evgeni Malkin spends with the Pittsburgh Penguins. You can view it below. In my humble opinion, I think that Kypreos and MacLean are out to lunch on this one and it’s probably why they’re sitting behind a desk on a TV set rather than a desk at the offices of an NHL team.

Kypreos is pretty sold on this being the best time EVER to move Malkin. An off-season where the salary cap is going to stay around $71M and with an expansion draft looming… Okay then.

This isn’t an official rumour or anything. It’s just me pondering aloud. But as it always does with any fan of hockey, the wheels got turning on what it would take for the Oilers to acquire a player like Malkin IF he were to waive his no-movement clause. I mean just for shits and giggles of course. The Russian IS one of the best players in the world today. Definitely better than everybody on the Edmonton Oilers not named Connor McDavid.

In the last 5 years in a group of all players who have played 4000 minutes or more, he has the 2nd best 5×5 pts/60 in the league with 2.62. He trails only Jamie Benn in that regard as the Dallas Star has 2.63 pts/60. Taylor Hall has 2.27 pts/60 and Eberle has 2.19 pts/60.

If we go to his stats on the powerplay, using 1000 minutes played over the last five years and amongst forwards, Evgeni Malkin is GF/60 is 8.39 putting him 7th in the league. Apparently there have been no Oilers to play 1000 minutes on the PP, so I changed that to 500 minutes and the first name to come up in the GF/60 category was RNH, then Eberle, and finally Hall. Nuge came out with a 7.77 GF/60, Ebs had a 6.99 GF/60, and Hallsy a 6.81 GF/60.

The Oilers need more goals on the powerplay!! It’s almost pitiful that Hall and Eberle can’t outscore players like Mike Fisher, Frans Nielsen, and Brayden Schenn with the man advantage.

*Interesting note. The no.1 player on the PP GF/60 list I was using is upcoming UFA Troy Brouwer with a 10.25 GF/60!!*

**Another interesting note coming from Walter Foddis is that good GF/60 numbers on the PP is more indicative of a good powerplay team-wise as oppose to individual production.**

Malkin’s CF/60 RelTM sits at 8.60 using the same parameters as the pts/60 above. That puts him in 8th place among forwards in the NHL. The highest Oiler is Taylor Hall who sits at 36th place with a 5.47 and Jordan Eberle (47th) has a 4.66 in that stat.

All stats courtesy of Stats.Hockeyanalysis.com

One of the things that Nick Kypreos and Doug MacLean were pontificating upon was whether Malkin is hurt or not. I think he is carrying an injury or two myself. He did have that wrist injury before the playoffs started and he’s been the victim of some chippy plays from the Penguins’ opposition throughout the playoffs. The Sportsnet crew also talked about how he likes to slow the game down and how that could be affecting his performance on a team that looks to be going a million miles an hour effectively vs. the Sharks.

It’s possible, that all of that is true. I’d love to see him in an Oilers uniform centering a Leon Draisaitl and Matthew Tkachuk or a Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall. But the question remains…

Do the Oilers Need Evgeni Malkin?

YES NO
  • A veteran of over 644 games.
  • Has accrued nearly 800 points to date.
  • Trophies won include the Art Ross (2x), Hart, Conn Smythe, Calder, Stanley Cup.
  • 5-time All-Star.
  • Has experience playing with generational talents (wink wink) and AHLers alike.
  • He’d be a solid mentor to Nail Yakupov and Leon Draisaitl.
  • Can actually complete a one-timer and would QB the powerplay.
  • He’s under contract for $9.5M per year until 2022.
  • He’d likely cost you Nuge, Hall, or Draisaitl, and the 4th overall pick in 2016.
  • He’s not a right-handed top-pairing defenceman.

So those are the pros and cons of Malkin being acquired by the Oilers in my eyes. Surely you could point out more. But the cons as few as they are really outweigh the pros and I’m almost 100% certain that there’s no way that Jim Rutherford would eat the $3M or so per year for it TO work for the Oilers.

Grab a phone case or a t-shirt of 16-bit Malkin right now by clicking on the pic above!

Personally I don’t think it’d be a great idea for Edmonton to trade for him IF he’s even on the market because of that contract and to be honest, why would the Penguins even consider dealing him? They’ve got the unicorns flying in full force right now. If anything, it’s MA Fleury that they deal with the emergence of Matt Murray. The Pens can absorb losing Fleury because they’ve got Zatkoff as the no.3 and Tristan Jarry coming up in the AHL. Kypreos and MacLean think that the expansion draft would take care of Fleury but why would you wait and lose him for nothing?

It’s nearly the same argument that is going on in Edmonton. The forward depth is there but because it’s there somebody has to go, right? Well, no. You don’t have to move a Malkin because Nick Bonino is having a good playoffs and has been clicking with Hagelin and Kessel. And conversely, you don’t move Nugent-Hopkins because there’s Draisaitl and McDavid.

If the machine isn’t broken, you generally don’t go looking for things to fix on it right? Unless you’re Kypreos and MacLean who are sounding almost as coherent as MacLean and Maclean.

But one last hypothetical before I leave you.

What if Malkin “only” cost the Oilers one of Leon Draisaitl, Taylor Hall, or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and say Nail Yakupov or the 4th overall pick, then could/would you flip Malkin to the Canadiens for PK Subban?

You’re probably saying why not just trade the package to the Habs for Subban? I reckon they’d prefer the offense that comes from Malkin than that of Nuge and Yak. I’m sure it’d be different for Hall but is that a way the Oilers could get their hands on the elusive top-pairing right-hander on the blueline?

What do you think? Is there a universe where you’d endorse an Edmonton Oilers trade for Evgeni Malkin?

Get your 16-Bit McDavid and support the #connorforcalder movement! Click the pic and get your tee today!

SCF 2016 Game 2 – SJ at PIT – Detailed Statistical Breakdown

Game Notes PIT vs S.J


San Jose Sharks (Head Coach: Peter DeBoer) at Pittsburgh Penguins (Head Coach: Mike Sullivan)

NHL Game #412, CONSOL Energy Center, 2016-06-01 06:00:00PM (GMT -0600)

Penguins 2-1 (OT)

Referees: Wes McCauley, Kelly Sutherland, Dan O’Halloran
Linesmen: Pierre Racicot, Derek Amell, Brian Murphy

Three Stars: Conor Sheary; Phil Kessel; Justin Braun

  • Another intense game. You’d almost think this was important to the players or something.
    • I saw someone call it ‘go kart’ hockey – good name!
  • Penguins up 2-0 – after all the Western dominance, who saw that coming?  According to the NHL, the Penguins now have an 88.9% chance of winning the Cup.
  • Joe Thornton led the Sharks in faceoffs 62.5% (5-3), and on-ice 5v5 shot attempts (59%).  He led Crosby head to head.  Whatever ails this team, it’s NOT Jumbo Joe, so let’s leave the ‘choke’ narrative on the shelf where it belongs.
  • Before the series, I recall one commentator (can’t remember who specifically) picking Pittsburgh because he felt their scoring depth would overwhelm the weak Sharks third pairing.  Interestingly, that’s exactly what the first goal was, with the Penguin third line exploiting the weak San Jose pairing of Polak and Dillon.
  • That said, in the first game, it was the top two pairings that had absolutely brutal games. This one, the Sharks D improved their play overall, but  pairings two and three were not good.
    • You can see this especially in the raw vs danger-weighted metrics for the Braun and Vlasic pairing – they did OK on the raw metrics, but got absolutely torched on the danger metrics.  They actually were in line with the other pairs as far as shot distance against goes, so it was the inability to create anything remotely dangerous when they were on the ice that was the culprit.
    • You might retort “but Braun had a goal!” (and was also one of the three stars)… to which I’d say a 51 ft snap shot isn’t exactly frightening.  Sometimes that’s how it works.  I will admit, I wasn’t watching any specific pairing, including his, all that carefully.  Maybe Vlasic was the one struggling.  But by danger weighted stats, it was not a good game for them.
    • Bottom line is that the Sharks can’t win without top rank performances from both the Burns and Vlasic pairings, and only one of those pairings was adequate tonight.
  • Especially telling is how much of an edge the Penguins had (again) in shot distance.
  • Jultz had another solid game.  I don’t get the hate – it’s not like he didn’t have the occasional run of solid games for the Oilers either.  Good on him for bringing it on the big stage.

Reminder: most of the stats below are for 5v5 in regulation time only, not OT; they are also from the San Jose point of view.


Game at a Glance


Leaderboard

  • Justin Braun led the way for the Sharks with 1 goal (but got torched on the danger weighted shots)
  • Brent Burns blasted 4 shots on goal, and was most active on the team with 10 shot attempts
  • Joe Thornton was the faceoff champ at 62.5% (5-3), and led the team in on-ice 5v5 shot attempts at 58.8% (20-14).
  • Melker Karlsson trailed the team in 5v5 on-ice shot attempts at 29.4% (5-12)
  • Brenden Dillon, Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns each thumped the other team 5 times

Goal Overview

Team Period Time Strength ShotType ShotDist Danger
PIT 2 8:20 EV Wrist 9.0 2.63
S.J 3 15:55 EV Snap 51.0 0.29
PIT 4 2:35 EV Wrist 33.0 0.71

Who Won the 5v5 Shot Battle?

Which Battle Who Won By How Much
Shots PIT 26 to 18 (59.1%)
Average Shot Distance Against (ft) PIT 33 to 44
Corsi PIT 50 to 43 (53.8%)
Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi PIT 50 to 43 (53.7%)
Fenwick PIT 36 to 29 (55.4%)
Dangerous Fenwick PIT 33 to 23 (58.5%)

http://i.imgur.com/eLQLWsX.png

Detailed Metrics

Shot Metrics
Strength CF CA CF% SACF SACA SACF% FF FA FF% DFF DFA DFF%
EV 43 50 46.2 43.2 50.1 46.3 29 36 44.6 23.2 32.7 41.5
All 49 59 45.4 49.2 59.2 45.4 35 42 45.5 26.7 36.5 42.3
Other Metrics
Team PP PPG PIM FO Hits Giveaways Takeaways
Penguins 2 0 2 54.8 36 8 8
Sharks 1 0 4 45.2 43 4 5

How the Players Did (On Ice Shot Attempts)

New chart! Shows how the players did directly comparing raw Corsi with DangerousFenwick. Look for big discrepancies one way or the other.

http://i.imgur.com/CWVWAzy.png

Danger Tables

Forwards are sorted by decreasing CF%. Defensemen and pairs sorted by increasing DFA60. Forward lines by decreasing DFF%. Positions are as listed by the NHL roster page, not necessarily where they played.

Centres
Centre EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
J. Thornton 17:05 50.0 20 14 58.8 59.3 64.7 50.6
T. Hertl 18:50 50.0 21 15 58.3 58.8 63.2 58.5
J. Pavelski 18:15 47.1 21 16 56.8 57.1 60 58.6
L. Couture 15:08 60.0 11 9 55 54.6 50 46
N. Spaling 07:53 33.3 5 8 38.5 38.4 41.7 30.3
T. Wingels 07:34 33.3 5 8 38.5 38.6 41.7 35.9
P. Marleau 14:50 33.3 6 13 31.6 31.1 31.2 36.4
C. Tierney 12:27 8.3 7 16 30.4 30.3 27.8 30.1
M. Karlsson 09:12 44.4 5 12 29.4 29.1 31.2 36.2
Wingers
Winger EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
J. Donskoi 15:35 60.0 12 9 57.1 56.5 50 46.7
J. Ward 14:10 37.5 10 15 40 40.3 36.8 32.1
M. Nieto 11:02 0.0 6 14 30 30 30.8 29.2
Defensemen

The DFA/60 (how much how bad the D gave up) are pretty much OK across the board.  It’s the terrible DFF% (balance of danger) for Braun and Vlasic that really stands out.

Defense EVTOI OZS%2 CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF% DFA60
P. Martin 20:00 47.1 18 20 47.4 47.7 48 51.1 32.1
B. Burns 20:19 44.4 19 20 48.7 48.9 48.1 51.5 32.49
J. Braun 17:33 30.8 13 12 52 52.5 38.9 18.7 37.61
M. Vlasic 18:22 33.3 14 13 51.9 52.3 42.1 16.5 37.89
R. Polak 16:09 40.0 12 18 40 39.7 47.6 49 38.64
B. Dillon 15:36 40.0 10 18 35.7 35.1 38.1 44.5 41.92
Defense Pairings
Pair EVTOI DFA60 AvgDistA CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
P. Martin B. Burns 18:55 33.94 31.3 18 19 48.6 48.9 48 51.1
M. Vlasic J. Braun 15:47 39.16 28.2 12 10 54.5 55.1 40 12.9
B. Dillon R. Polak 14:35 39.91 28.2 10 15 40 39.4 44.4 47.4
Forward Lines

Lots of line mixing … what do we call that, the Boerlender?

Line EVTOI CF CA CF% SACF% FF% DFF%
P. Marleau M. Karlsson M. Nieto 02:16 2 1 66.7 65 100 100
J. Donskoi L. Couture J. Ward 04:41 7 1 87.5 87 83.3 93.4
J. Pavelski J. Thornton T. Hertl 15:55 20 12 62.5 62.9 73.3 60.4
P. Marleau J. Donskoi L. Couture 08:43 4 6 40 39.9 37.5 25.2
J. Ward C. Tierney M. Nieto 06:45 3 9 25 25.7 25 23
N. Spaling T. Wingels M. Karlsson 04:22 3 5 37.5 38.2 37.5 20.4

Game Flows



Rink Maps

Defense Pairings – Shots Given Up


http://i.imgur.com/JL2rlcS.png
http://i.imgur.com/4C4flQx.png

Forward Lines – Shots Taken



http://i.imgur.com/DmSTTfx.png

Head to Head


http://i.imgur.com/5FpTN1a.png
http://i.imgur.com/5fGxkUt.png

NHL Media Highlights

Click the link to play the associated highlight video

Jones’ point-blank save
Braun’s game-tying goal
Murray’s late save in the 2nd
Camera lens falls onto ice
Kessel capitalizes on turnover
Hertl’s great attempt hits post
Sheary’s game-winning goal in OT
Tierney’s shot off the crossbar
Murray’s early save
Hertl finds the post three times
Murray’s flurry of late saves
Jones’ back-to-back saves
Jones denies Malkin’s spin-o-rama
Jones denies Hornqvist twice