Category Archives: Fancy Stats

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, NHL

The Edmonton Oilers After 70 Games: Can You SMELL What the Playoffs Are Cooking?!

In games 61-70, the Edmonton Oilers went 5-3-2. During that timespan, they played without some key players including Connor McDavid and Oscar Klefbom but they also upgraded the overall talent on the roster with the acquisitions of Tyler Ennis, Andreas Athanasiou, and Mike Green.

I would say that the overall theme of these ten games was overachieving goaltenders. Both Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen had, in my opinion, their best games of the season. The rest of the team really shit the bed 5×5 and that is a problem because when the post-season starts the reffing isn’t going to be the same and they will not be able to solely rely on their special teams to carry them through.

What I am encouraged by though is the emergence of a bonafide 4th line. Coach Tippett said that he wanted to try out a heavy line and I don’t think you can get any heavier when you throw Jujhar Khaira, Alex Chiasson, and James Neal on the ice together. This, my friends, is a playoff line and every year there’s a line like this that catches fire in the post-season and by that, I mean that this combination of players will be able to really grind down the opposition in their own end.

It just really reminds me of the kind of 4th lines the Kings and Bruins were rolling when they were winning their Cups. How about yourself?

Record: 37-24-9 (9th)

Name Stat Overall Season Standing
GF 221 10th (+2)
GA 211 16th (=)
GF/GP 3.16 13th (+1)
GA/GP 3.01 17th (+1)
PP% 29.5% 1st (=)
PK% 84.4% 2nd (=)
Shots For/GP 29.5 28th (-2)
Shots Against/GP 32.1 11th (-5)
FOW% 48.9% 24th (=)

The special teams didn’t flinch one bit during this stretch and Edmonton seemed to do a good job of putting the puck into the net and keeping it out of their own. Faceoffs continue to be a sore spot but with that said, the Washington Capitals aren’t that great on the dot either. The shots for/against took a hit this time around though and I wonder if that’s a result of some injuries to keep possession players?

Name Stat Overall Standing
Hits 1571 9th (+3)
Blocked Shots 1050 4th (+3)
Missed Shots 753 23rd (+2)
Giveaways 785 5th (+3)
Takeaways 578 5th(+1)
Shooting Percentage 10.7% 2nd (+4)

The above stats are courtesy of NHL.com.

These numbers don’t mean a whole lot in the overall scheme of things, but I like to look at them to see where the Oilers sit in the land of grit and hard work. I think that these numbers are more for the blue-collar fan that anything.

The Fancies (5×5)

Name Stat Overall Standing
Corsi For % 47.8% 27th (-1)
Fenwick For % 48.2% 25th (-3)
Shots For% 48.1% 23rd (-3)
Goals For % 47.4% 25th (-1)
Expected Goals For % 48.3% 22nd (-3)
Scoring Chances For % 47.6% 24th (-2)
Scoring Chances Goals For % 47.2% 25th (=)
High Danger Chances For % 49.1% 20th (-3)
High Danger Goals For % 48.2% 22nd (+3)
High Danger Shooting % 18.8% 12th (-1)
High Danger Save % 81.95% 16th (+12)
PDO 0.998 19th (+6)

If any of these metrics are unfamiliar to you, please consult the Natural Stat Trick Glossary.

What jumps out at me here is the high-danger save percentage. The Oilers jumped up twelve spots in the overall standings there and what we know is that save for one dodgy performance from Mike Smith, both of Edmonton’s netminders stood on their heads for this bucket of games.

I’ll say this again (probably for the sixth or seventh time), the fancies still aren’t pretty but they haven’t been all year. Yet, the team sits pretty with regards to a playoff spot. How much do these numbers really mean in the grand scheme of things if a good team can have poor possession metrics but their location in the standings is this good?

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We’re in do or die time now folks. The Oilers do have a 4pt lead on Calgary in the Pacific Division and a 5pt gap separates them from the nearest wildcard spot. They need all hands on deck for the next week-to-ten days because if they slip and somebody else catches fire, Tippett’s boys could still end up on the outside looking in.

What will a 100% healthy roster look like and what kind of damage will it be able to do come game one of the 2020 NHL playoffs?

Here’s what the path to the 82nd game of the looks like today,

The Next Twelve Games (71-82)

  • 3/11 vs. Winnipeg Jets (36-28-6) – Winnipeg really gave it to the Oilers in their last game against each other but Edmonton’s goaltending was stellar and now McDavid is under the weather and Yamamoto is taking “maintenance days”? (LOSS)
  • 3/13 vs. New York Islanders (35-23-9) – Who would’ve guessed that the Islanders would be fighting with the Rangers for a wildcard spot in 2020? (WIN)
  • 3/15 @ Philadelphia Flyers (41-20-7) – The last back-to-back of the year starts here against the hottest team in the NHL. A lot of ppl ridiculed the Flyers when they picked up Justin Braun and Matt Niskanen, but they’ve proven to be very excellent additions so far. Top that off with some Carter Hart netminding and life is good in Philly. (LOSS)
  • 3/16 @ Washington Capitals (41-20-8) – At the time of writing, the Caps are 4-3-3 in their last ten games and that’s generally not the kind of form you want to be in at the end of the regular season. What a great hockey team this is but unless they get great goaltending, I don’t think their defense is all that amazing aside from John Carlson. (WIN)
  • 3/18 @ Ottawa Senators (25-32-12) – The Sens basically dealt away their best player and one of their most talented wingers at the deadline, in addition to that, Edmonton’s past would lead me to believe that the Sens should probably take this one. This is a different Oilers team though and I feel like they’ll win this one with ease. (WIN)
  • 3/20 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (43-20-6) – Speaking of teams that are cooling off at the wrong time. The Lightning are 3-6-1 in their last ten, they’re without Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, and the guys they picked up at the trade deadline have done diddly squat since then. Maybe by the time this game takes place Stamkos and Hedman are back in and their deadline acquisitions are scoring, but I hope not! HA! (OT LOSS)
  • 3/23 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28-32-9) – Poor John Gibson. This team is a shell of its former self but the good thing is, they’re icing quite a few youngsters and for a draft geek like myself, I dig that. (WIN)
  • 3/25 vs. Colorado Avalanche (41-20-8) – How healthy are the Avs in this one? When I was writing this on the 10th of March Nathan MacKinnon had gotten dinged up and this is a team that will only go as far as he takes them. (WIN)
  • 3/27 vs. San Jose Sharks (29-35-5) – Do you recognize any of the names on this roster? Will Evander Kane concuss another Oiler in this one? Is anybody still laughing at the fact that their first-rounder belongs to the Ottawa Senators and it’s most likely going to net the Sens a future first-line forward or top-four defender? (WIN)
  • 3/29 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28-32-9) – Might we start seeing some players getting rested around this time? You can be sure that the Ducks will be playing to win and doing it in the only way they know. The Oilers will need to be careful not to get hurt here. (WIN)
  • 3/31 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (39-24-8) – I expect there to be some fire in this one. A Vegas/Edmonton playoff series would be some great entertainment, would it not? (LOSS)
  • 4/4 vs. Calgary Flames (36-27-7) – This is how every year should end, with a final installment of the battle of Alberta. Where are the Flames in the standings in this game though? Regardless, it’ll be a very interesting game if both teams have clinched playoff spots. Not sure how physical it will be but one thing you can be sure of, Matthew Tkachuk will probably annoy Leon Draisaitl and Andrew Mangiapane will most likely score a goal. (WIN)

(Standings as of March 10th, 2020)

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, NHL

Edmonton Oilers After Fifty Games: What Are the Numbers Telling Us and Who Could Help?

Welcome back Oilers fans! Chinese New Year is over and we’ve not been gifted with the opportunity to panic over the coronavirus… Yeah… You’re probably infinitely safer over in Canada than I am here in Taiwan, but now that most of the major airlines are canceling flights to/from Beijing/Shanghai, we should be able to take it easier (in theory). That said, what do I come home to this evening but my beloved wife enthralled in the movie “Contagion” on her laptop and the local news that is recycling the latest on the virus outbreak playing on the TV… Woof! It’s intense over here sometims. At least I’ve got the Edmonton Oilers, right?

Speaking of the boys in blue, orange, and white; they played last night and it was a glorious tilt. Hits, fights, goals, comebacks, cheap shots, more cheap shots, and just when you thought the game was getting boring, Calgary threw in another cheap shot and then got lucky in the shootout. Well, just as they did last time when they thought they “stole” the two points, the next game they gave them right back and I expect them to do just that one more time on Saturday in the re-match.

https://twitter.com/ArchivistSports/status/1222766364709908480

Even after getting his ass absolutely handed to him, Matthew Tkachuk forgets he’s not wearing that St. Louis Cardinals uniform anymore and goes Bobby Clarke on Leon Draisaitl’s arm. With George Parros and Stephen Walkom in attendance no less! Shameless human being he is…

Then Mark Knee-ordano decides, and the refs let him, to “obstruct” McDavid… This is brutal officiating and you can be sure they knew it at the time too because Connor (and most of the Oilers’ top-six) let them know… That was the leg that blew up when McDavid flew into the net last year too… So you can understand the league’s best player and money-maker’s frustrations.

December 19th eh?… Anybody else have this info our earlier?

Our beloved power forward Zack Kassian re-upped with the Oilers for four more seasons! His cap hit will be $3.2M and if you’re complaining about that, you might need to get checked out. Even if he’s a 30pt winger for that entire time, he’s worth it. And as the salary cap rises, the money will mean even less. The Oilers now have one more player locked up who wants to be there and was kind enough not to ask for any trade protection. Kudos to Oilers GM Ken Holland for his work here.

But let’s get into the numbers. We’re 50 games in and this last ten-game stretch was a beauty for the Oilers and it really propelled them up the charts in a majority of the categories. Here are the numbers as of January 30th, 2020.

Record: 28-18-6 (16th)

Name Stat Overall Season Standing
GF 156 14th (+2)
GA 155 15th (+12)
GF/GP 3.12 13th (+7)
GA/GP 3.10 18th (-1)
PP% 29.3% 1st (=)
PK% 82.3% 9th (-1)
Shots For/GP 29.3 28th (-1)
Shots Against/GP 31.4 17th (-5)
FOW% 48.3% 27th (=)

Fascinating that the Oilers have never had a powerplay lower than second or a penalty kill lower tan 9th in the league this year. That’s some fine coaching, players buying in, and the GM bringing in the right guys to play the right roles.

Still no improvement on the faceoff dot mind you. If the Oilers are going to make the playoffs, they’re going to need a center who can win draws. If Phillip Danault (MTL) was a righty, he would be a dream add in my opinion. Maybe Nick Shore could be had out of Winnipeg? He’s winning draws at a rate of 55% this year. Problem is, he brings ZERO offense to the ice. My personal pick is still Luke Glendening from Detroit. An older player with another year on his contract after this and Holland would have experience dealing with him. He’ll bring more offense than a Nick Shore undoubtedly. Reckon Cooper Marody and one of Edmonton’s unsigned college or European prospects would be enough to bring him to Edmonton?

In addition to that, I really want to see them pick up a volume shooter. With the amount of firepower they’ve got, there’s no reason they should be sitting in the bottom quarter of the league in shots for/GP. So if Anaheim’s Ondrej Kase is available, scoop him up. He’s shooting under 6% this year and he’s a career 9.7% shooter and he only makes $2.6M for another year after this.

Do you think adding a better puck mover on the back end would help out some of those stats? Just a rental though. With Evan Bouchard making a mockery of the AHL right now, he’ll be on his way next season and this is a player who rarely misses a pass out of his zone. I’m talking about players like Sami Vatanen or Erik Gustafsson. Do you think that they’d be upgrades over what Edmonton has currently? It’d be a pricey add though. If the cost to acquire Brendan Dillon is a 2nd-round pick AND a prospect, you can be sure any defender better would see the ask set at a first-round pick.

Name Stat Overall Standing
Hits 1105 13th (-4)
Blocked Shots 755 7th (-7)
Missed Shots 559 18th (-4)
Giveaways 568 7th (-1)
Takeaways 420 7th(-2)
Shooting Percentage 10.7% 7th (+7)

The above stats are courtesy of NHL.com.

These numbers don’t mean a whole lot in the overall scheme of things, but I like to look at them to see where the Oilers sit in the land of grit and hard work. I would say the boys were too busy scoring and controlling puck possession to focus on wearing down the opposition. You?

The Fancies (5×5)

Name Stat Overall Standing
Corsi For % 47.65% 27th (=)
Fenwick For % 48.35% 24th (+1)
Shots For% 48.22% 25th (+1)
Goals For % 50.16% 17th (+10)
Expected Goals For % 49.53% 18th (+6)
Scoring Chances For % 49.47% 19th (+6)
Scoring Chances Goals For % 50.94% 14th (+14)
High Danger Chances For % 51.38% 10th (+7)
High Danger Goals For % 52.12% 13th (+10)
High Danger Shooting % 20.92% 11th (=)
High Danger Save % 80.25% 19th (+4)
PDO 1.009 11th (+12)

If any of these metrics are unfamiliar to you, please consult the Natural Stat Trick Glossary.

This is great news if you’re a believer in the fancies! The shot metrics climbed marginally but the goal metrics spiked hard. I guess when you go 6-2-2, your scoring stats are going to look good. This pretty much coincides with the Oilers calling up Kailer Yamamoto and sticking him on the wing with Leon Draisaitl and Ryan “Raging Nuge” Nugent-Hopkins, right? That roster move single-handedly provided the team with a second line for the first time in I don’t know how many seasons.

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Now, I would argue, the Oilers have three of four lines set.

Neal-McDavid-Kassian
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Nygard-Sheahan-Archibald

They’ve just got to work on that fourth line and it’s been a mishmash of players this year. Jujhar Khaira, Patrick Russell, Sam Gagner, Gaetan Haas, and Alex Chiasson have all spent time there in 2019/20 but there needs to be some upgrading in this group and at this moment in time I’m hearing that it’s Khaira that will most likely be sent on his way. Chiasson and Gagner have met expectations in their limited TOI and I believe the club is high on Haas and Russell as depth options.

With Joakim Nygard leaving the game against Calgary after blocking a shot at the end of the first period, I wonder if that opens up a very convenient window to call up Tyler Benson and stick him with Sheahan and Archie? It’s worth it to see what he’s got in my opinion and if he’s not ready, send him back or possibly use him to bring in a young impact player via trade. Something to keep an eye on nevertheless.

The Next Ten Games (51-60)

  • vs. St. Louis Blues (31-12-8) – I’m not 100% sold that the Oilers will be focused on this game seeing as they play Calgary the next night. They have played well against the league’s best this season at times though. Can McDavid and Draisaitl beat the Blues in this one like they did at the All-Star game? (WIN)
  • @ Calgary Flames (27-19-6) – If you thought last night’s game was fun with all the fights and cheap shots, this game is going to be bonkers. It always seems to be in Calgary. Losing three times to the Flames and that post-game celly by Rittich will be eating away at the Oilers. They’ll be doing their damnedest to bring home the two points. (WIN)
  • @ Arizona Coyotes (26-21-5) – The Oilers put up a touchdown on the Coyotes right before their bye-week and I don’t imagine that sat well with Taylor Hall and co. That said, they’re on a bit of a slump in their last ten (4-5-1) and Edmonton is flying high as of today (6-2-2). On the other hand, just when the opportunity presents itself to the Oilers they usually take the night off. (LOSS)
  • vs. San Jose Sharks (22-26-4) – Man, this Sharks team is bad. With Vlasic, Karlsson, and Burns on the back-end no less… Can you believe the Golden Knights fired Gerard Gallant to hire San Jose’s old coach? I think this will be a scheduled win for McDavid’s boys. Watch out for shenanigans from Evander Kane and Timo Meier. (WIN)
  • vs. Nashville Predators (23-19-7) – Since the Preds hired NJ’s old coach, they haven’t been scoring much and that’s not a good sign when you go into Edmonton. Couple that with Pekka Rinne’s game falling right off of a cliff and the Oilers should be able to walk away with two points. (WIN)
  • vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24-21-6) – The Hawks are coming on as of late and I think they could pull this one off in Edmonton. Maybe Drake Caggiula does the ex-Oiler thing and scores. (LOSS)
  • @ Tampa Bay Lightning (30-15-5) – This will be a fine test for the Oilers. Tampa has found their stride at the right time and are looking very dominant. Might we see another ex-Oiler in Pat Maroon score or drop the flippers? I expect McDavid to be flying in this one. (LOSS)
  • @ Florida Panthers (28-16-5) – This match-up is going to be a fun one. The Panthers have some really fun players to watch like Huberdeau, Barkov, and the very underrated Vincent Trochek. Which Sergei Bobrovsky might we see if he gets the call though? (WIN)
  • @ Carolina Hurricanes (29-18-3) – It’s hard not to like what they’ve build in Carolina. Andrei Svechnikov is already a scoring phenom at 19-years-old and it’s hard to overlook the wonder Finns (Aho/Teravainen), right? How will this team be sans Dougie Hamilton though? Can the Oilers sweep back-to-backs again? (WIN)
  • vs. Boston Bruins (29-10-12) – Edmonton goes from one team who doesn’t lose in OT to a team that seemingly only loses in OT. The Oilers gave the Bs a pretty sound beating last time they played and we’re close to the trade deadline here so I’m not sure what the rosters will look like. I like Boston for this one though. (LOSS)

(Standings as of January 20th, 2020)

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Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, NHL

Review: @robvollmanNHL’s Hockey Abstract 2018 Update

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Earlier this week advanced analytics guru Rob Vollman released the 2018 update for his world famous Hockey Abstract and I decided to pick up a copy for $13 CDN and take a gander as I do with every release of Mr.Vollman’s.

You can pick up your copy here. Get the bundle by the way, it’s the best value for the price.

Now, you’re probably wondering why I, BLH, would be reading up on the fancies given what you may have read either on the blog here or on Twitter and I’d like to clear that up for you right now.

I’m not anti-fancy stats. There are personalities in the hockey analytics community that I don’t particularly like and get the brunt of my vitriol but the advanced stats I find particularly useful when it comes time to figuring out who is performing well despite the traditional stats looking poor (Lucic last year comes to mind as well as Puljujarvi) and who is performing poorly even though they might be producing on the scoresheet.

Rob Vollman is a guy I have a lot of time for because he can do what so many analytics personalities cannot. Explain things in terms that I can understand and in a manner that doesn’t feel condescending or that he’s talking down to you in any way. I respect that.

Another reason I’m doing this review is that last season Rob gave me a copy of his Hockey Abstract 2017 Update for free and I said I’d write a review and didn’t. That made me feel like a dick.

So, I give you…

The Hockey Abstract 2018 Update Review

Before we jump in, let’s take a brief look at what this year’s update is going to bring us straight from the Horse’s mouth.

Just like the updates in 2015 and 2016, the Hockey Abstract 2018 Update not only serves as an excellent companion to previous editions, and includes updates on previously introduced and sometimes hard-to-find statistical data. For those new to the series, it’s also a great stand-alone guide for team-by-team analysis.

This year’s edition is in full colour, and presents the information in a number of all-new charts and graphs courtesy of RJ Weise. It also includes 25 “stat of the day” popups by venerable long-time hockey statistician Stan Nieradka.
This year’s Hockey Abstract 2018 Update contains over 170 pages of fresh analysis, including new player usage charts and analysis for all 31 NHL teams, and updates to most of the statistics and studies that were introduced earlier in the Hockey Abstract series like:
  • Goaltending statistics, like quality starts, relief goaltending, saves above expectations (SAX), Goals saved above average (GSAA), and expected goals
  • Shot-based metrics, like SAT/Corsi, USAT/Fenwick, and expected goals, in all manpower situations
  • Player and team contract value, and aging curves
  • Coaching data
  • Real-time scoring statistics, like hitting, blocked shots, faceoffs, and drawing penalties
  • Setup passes
  • NHL Translation factors (NHLe)
  • The do-it-all index and the team accolade index
  • Disciplined aggression proxy
  • Presence and Individual Points Percentage (IPP)
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP)

What I love from the Hockey Abstract year-in and year-out is the team-by-team analysis and previews going into the upcoming seasons. When reading them I get the feeling I’m just talking to a buddy (who happens to know a lot about analytics) who’s giving me a fair and balanced opinion on his team.

Here’s a snippet from this year’s Edmonton Oilers section:

It must sting for Oilers fans to see Taylor Hall lead the New Jersey Devils back into the playoffs and win the Hart Trophy in just his second season away from Edmonton.

It must also sting to see the Maple Leafs lock down John Tavares without having to sacrifice Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, or William Nylander, while the Oilers shed solid players like Jordan Eberle and still run out of cap space. Plus, it must be hard to patiently wait for those they got in return, like Adam Larsson and Ryan Strome, to reach expectations. But each of these concerns are small potatoes compared to what the Oilers can achieve with a player like Connor McDavid, which could include a Stanley Cup that would heal all wounds.

The player usage charts that have been made famous by Vollman and his team are always educational and very useful in getting a good view of how your team and its players did the previous year. Check them out here.

This year’s version is in color and while I think that’s a cool feature, I don’t really feel like its potential was met. The colors were simply okay in my opinion and hopefully, in future updates, this feature can be a bit more dynamic.

The difference between the 2017 (left) and 2018 (right) Updates.

I will say this about the player usage charts though, I liked that the defensemen and forwards were different shapes this year. Forwards being circles and dmen being diamonds.

Something that I’m missing from previous versions of the update is the Coles notes rundown of each team. Basically, Vollman went over the following categories and gave a checkmark, a star, or nothing to grade them.

  • Possession
  • The Shootout
  • Goaltending
  • Penalty Kill
  • Power Play
  • Scoring Line
  • Shutdown Line
  • Forward Depth
  • Top Pairing
  • Second Pairing
  • Defensive Depth
  • Coaching
  • Prospects

I would’ve preferred this in the 2018 Update instead of color but as my old man used to say, beggars can’t be choosers.

After each team profile there’s an analytics-based article tailored to each team. In Edmonton’s case, Blocking shots. Why is Kris Russell the best shot-blocker in the NHL and is that really helping the Oilers?

Other articles include,

  • Passing (ANH) – Why Ryan Getzlaf is a better passer than Connor McDavid.
  • The Best Goalie (CLB) – Is Phillip Grubauer as good as Sergei Bobrovsky?
  • The Best Goalie of All-Time (MTL) – Is it Ken Dryden or Dominik Hasek?
  • Individual Power Play (NYR) – Who is the NHL’s best dman/fwd on the PP?
  • Contractual Value (TB) – Which teams are managing their cap room the best?
  • Coaching (VGK) – Is a coaching staff loaded with a track record of past success better than one without?

The 2018 Update is a good 110 pages fewer this time around because there aren’t as many general articles like:

  • Who’s the best clutch scorer?
  • Why does Washington always lose in the playoffs?
  • How much cap space would a team like the 83/84 Oilers need today?
  • Can we predict injuries?
  • Why do rebuilds fail?

There are way more than that but I really enjoy those types of articles and am a tad disappointed that the 2018 Update doesn’t have them but there are only so many hours in the day.

Also, I imagine that Vollman will make up for it with his new book coming out in September called, “Stat Shot: Fan’s Guide to Analytics”.

You can pre-order that book here.

If you’re on the fence about advanced analytics or just a little curious, I recommend you pick up the Hockey Abstract Bundle here. It’s severely underpriced, I can almost guarantee that you won’t be disappointed, and you’ll be thoroughly entertained and educated.

All-in-all, I might prefer last year’s format to this year’s but that doesn’t take away from the quality of this year’s Update one iota. It’s a must buy going into the 2018/19 NHL season for any fan!

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Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, G Money, NHL

Assessing the Western Conference Playoff Landscape by @Oilersnerdalert

Who’s the favourite? We know the Oilers are going to play San Jose first, but in the big picture, who should the Oilers want to play most/least? Enquiring minds want to know!

There is no magical way to ‘know’ what’s going to happen in the various series, but we can look at how the season has shaped up and make some decent guesses about who to favour.  I’m going to walk through a few different methods and we’ll see what we see.

Don’t Use Standings

First, one thing that I’ll start with is to stay you can generally throw the regular season standings (or points) out the window.  There is a fairly weak relationship between points and post-season success (though it may surprise you to learn that the PresCup winner, far from being ‘cursed’, actually tends to do quite well in the post-season).

Head to Head Score Adjusted Corsi

Our first data stop will look at how the various West teams fared head to head in 5v5 score adjusted Corsi. Since the refs tend to put away their whistles in the post season, the importance of 5v5 is magnified, so this gives us a sense of how the ‘playoff’ part of their games went.

http://i.imgur.com/diHK3SO.png – source @OilersNerdAlert

From an Oilers perspective, MIN and ANA look like good matchups, while the others, especially CGY, CHI, and S.J look like tougher matches. But wait! Didn’t we go undefeated against CGY?? Not to mention STL? How is this possible?

Actually, this is the weakness of any statistical look – small sample size. In the case of CGY vs EDM, the Oilers blew out the Flames early in several games. For example, the first game of the season, the gameflow looks like this:

http://i.imgur.com/rbbg7Cn.png – source @OilersNerdAlert

The Oilers basically ran up the score early, dominated for most of the game, and then went into a defensive shell – which allowed the Flames to run up the fancystat counters, even as their loss was already written. Same story in the last game of the season, where the Oilers ran up a 5-0 edge and then coasted.

Now you might ask, isn’t score adjustment supposed to take care of that? Well – yes, sort of. It takes care of that at a statistical level. The score adjustment is done based on league wide averages.  So it works really well when you get at least 10 to 20 games of data, enough where the averages start to apply in a meaningful way.

But a score adjustment at a game level, or even at a season series of 4 or 5 games, while it will almost always push the fancystats in the right direction, won’t necessarily be reflective of that game or games. Especially if there were blowouts, as there were twice in this series.

So I wouldn’t take these numbers too seriously. That’s why I put this look first – it’s actually not that reliable IMO. It’s more for interest.

And as we’ll see later, if the Oilers face the Flames, take the Oilers all the way!

Head to Head Records

I don’t actually know if anyone has tested to see if head to head records have any predictive power for the post-season (my gut says probably not), BUT I sure do like this!

https://twitter.com/humantorch/status/851498850430976000

Goal Differential

I mentioned earlier that points are not that great a way to assess post-season chances. A much better a predictor is goal differential. (Read the detailed analysis here: https://www.stats.com/insights/nhl/debunking-myth-playoff-vs-regular-season-hockey/)

When we look at the teams sorted by goal differential, it gets pretty interesting:

http://i.imgur.com/KPObkSA.png – source NHL.com

Now Edmonton is starting to look more like a powerhouse than a weak sister, yes?  If Talbot Talbots and McDavid McDavids, the Oilers can beat anyone.

And of course, the weak sister in the West is in fact … Da Flames.

By the way, you might be wondering – isn’t this basically PLUS MINUS, and isn’t PLUS MINUS the pariah of the fancystats world?

Indeed, it is – at the player level. That’s for two reasons – the assignation of plus minus at the player level is extremely noisy, and because goals are such rare events, it takes multiple seasons to generate enough player sample size to overcome that noise – and by that time, your player has usually changed (situation, or even age!)

We don’t have as much noise, or as much of a sample size problem at the team level though, which is why goal differential works pretty well.

Score and Venue Adjusted [Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals]

Now let’s get on to some actual fancystats. I’m using Corsi, Fenwick, and corsica’s xGF.  Corsi has historically been something of a gold standard for predicting the future.  What’s interesting though is there’s an argument to be made that this relationship may be weakening as more teams pay attention to shots/possession and the resulting ‘market efficiency in action’ takes away some of the advantage historically measured by shot metrics.

We’re going to take the full seasons 5v5 measures and rank teams that way. So we’ll roll all three together to get a sense of where the teams fit:

http://i.imgur.com/OZPNHdY.png – source corsica.hockey

Ooh, that’s a bit ugly, isn’t it?  The Oilers are much weaker by this measure – ranking 7th, 2nd, and 6th out of 8.  So why such a big difference from goal differential?

Well, the easiest way to way outperform (or underperform) your underlying shot metrics is through the quality of goalering (you can also do it through special teams but I’d say that’s ‘harder’ in some sense).  So I think this really reflects the fact that Cam Talbot this season has been incredible – arguably a Top 4 or Top 5 goalie league-wide.

If the Oilers are to have success in the post-season, he’s going to have to continue his strong play. No surprise there.

San Jose looks a lot like the powerhouse that made it to the Cup Finals last year. Not going to be an easy series!

I guess the saving grace is that the Flames are still weak at 5, 8, and 8.

Tweaking the Fancystats

There’s an interesting tweak we can make to these numbers to increase their assessment/prediction capability. One of the things we know is that shot metrics in-season have their peak predictivity around 20 to 25 games, after which there is a slow decline in predictivity. Some of that is due to increasing randomness as games predicted declines.

But I think a significant part of it is also that teams change over the course of the season. Key players get hurt (or come back from injury).  Sometimes coaches change.  Teams get into a groove or fall out of one.

So we have this balance to find – we want the maximum amount of data possible, but if we use data that’s too old, it isn’t actually reflective of the team right now.

As it turns out, using the last 25 games gives adequate data volume and yet doesn’t get overloaded with games from early in the season that aren’t really indicative of a team now, producing a fairly high level of predictivity. (see for example Micah Blake McCurdy’s work on his Oscar prediction model).

So let’s look at two things – how a team did over the last 25 games of the season, and also the trend of that data, as a bit of a projection as to the direction of the teams level of play.  (Note: out of laziness, I’ve taken data for the Oilers from Feb 15th, which equates to 25 games. Other teams may be a bit more or less – ha ha, too bad for them! More seriously, it shouldn’t change the results much, if at all)

Let’s take a look.

Here’s the West teams from best to worst in SACF% over the last 25 games:

http://i.imgur.com/7ocNV8l.png – source corsica.hockey

Oooh.  Still sucks to be the Oilers on that basis though, doesn’t it?  But we also know that those 25 games started with a fairly poor stretch for the Oilers, but they’ve been coming on strong of late. And the opposite is true for the Flames. So let’s look at the trend over those games too.

http://i.imgur.com/2HcmCVp.png – source corsica.hockey (chart by @OilersNerdAlert)

Hmm, that’s encouraging, right? Despite the rather soft numbers the Oilers put up in the second half, in fact (as the eyes would suggest), the Oilers appear to be improving in a big way as they head towards the post-season. Yeah!

Cowtown on the other hand – again, as the eyes would suggest – are sliding back to Earth after the unsustainable hot streak that pulled them into the playoffs.

San Jose has solid numbers, but is neither hot nor cold.

I’ll leave you to mull over the rest of the trends.

Putting it All Together

We’ve taken a few different looks at how teams did in the regular season to get a sense of how they might fare in the playoffs.  Now, has this work given you the definitive guide to who’s going to win the West?

Ha, of course not! Statistics give you a sense of which way the probabilities lean, they are most certainly not fait accompli.

Rather, what we’ve got is some sturdy data to suggest which teams are leaning positive and which are leaning negative.

You still have to understand context though. Statistically, Anaheim is looking pretty good – but if Lindholm, Vatanen, and Fowler are out or not 100%, that’s a huge hit. Ditto San Hoser and Jumbo Joe. (In fact, one of the defining characteristics of Cup champions is that they are good and healthy when they hit the playoffs, and are still mostly healthy, or at least healthier than their opponents, by the time they get to the finals).

The Oilers meanwhile actually look pretty good, my friend!  Probably not to win it all, but I’d say we’ll be a tough out even for a legit contender.

And with McDavid and Dadbot on our side, anything can happen.

Bring it on!

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Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, Michael Gerber, NHL

Is the Edmonton Oilers Success Sustainable?

The Oilers are off to a great start, second in the Pacific Division and 5 points clear of a playoff spot but is this anything more than a McDavid fueled hot start?

A good indicator of whether a team as a whole is over achieving is to look at a larger sample size than wins or team +/-. The largest data set available is the team’s Corsi For %. This indicates whether a team has possession of the puck more than their opponents.  The Oilers rank 11th in the NHL in CF% and 3rd in the Pacific Division. This shows that the Oilers are not winning games by luck, there is real improvement over the teams 48.9% 2015-16 season which ranked 12th worst in the NHL.

Among smaller but also reliable data sets the Oilers also show well with:

–          51.16% Fenwick For % (11th NHL) ,

–          51.91% Goals For % (12th NHL)

–          50.87% Shots For % (10th NHL) and

–          50.1% Scoring Chances For%

There are only 7 teams in the NHL to have a positive number in every category listed above and the Oilers are one of them. Combine these with the fact that the Oilers have an average shooting percentage and average save percentage and you have a team that is performing well across the board without running hot, unsustainable goaltending or lucky shooting.

Individually let’s start with the new captain McDavid, he’s co-leader for the scoring race in the NHL and providing consistent, elite offense with a rotating set of wingers. He’s been excellent as expected and his contribution to the Oilers position in the standings shouldn’t and won’t be ignored. Past the obvious impact of the captain is there room for optimism?

The Oilers latest winning streak is a great example, it has come at a time where the offense has not been coming in piles for McDavid. Despite this, the team has been able to come from behind to tie and win games, pushing teams around and grinding out wins along the way when finesse alone isn’t cutting it. There is real depth to this team (including defensively) and it is really showing of late.

Leon Draisaitl has been fantastic despite playing a lot of minutes with 3rd line quality wingers, putting up 1st line quality stats.

 Patrick Maroon has continued to show himself to be a capable top 6 winger on the score sheet.

Milan Lucic, despite his detractors, has been putting up good numbers and is 3rd on the team in scoring.

Mark Letestu has proven me entirely wrong as a capable power play specialist along with killing penalties and centering a 4th line that is a 5 on 5 force.

Zack Kassian continues to Kass and if he were to find a little luck from the officials might have 12-15 points from a depth role.

Matthew Benning has been fantastic, building on the Brandon Davidson happy surprise of 15-16 and giving the Oilers a very usable right shot defender.

Adam Larsson is a capable right shot 1st pairing defender.

Darnell Nurse had been very good prior to injury and has a complete skill set to go along with a maturing positional understanding of the game.

Andrej Sekera has been everything the Oilers thought they were getting when they signed him; capable and reliable in all situations.

Oscar Klefbom has been up and down but is coming off of a major period of long-term recovery and has proven every bit capable as a top 4 defender.

Cam Talbot has been a legitimate starting goaltender providing dependable regular starts.

Contributing further to that depth are a few players that have yet to contribute to full effect this season that we know have the potential to do more should the performance of others slide. The entire unit recently used for long stretches as a top line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle are underperforming based on their abilities and could very well have a rebound in 2017.

Jesse Puljuajrvi is a highly talented rookie that has been in and out of the lineup. He is the youngest player in the NHL, was and was regarded in his draft year as a better prospect than Leon Draisaitl was and was in the conversation around this time last year to unseat Auston Matthews as the #1 pick. Arguably his rookie season has been as or more successful than Draisaitl’s was and he has the potential to break out as early as the second half of this season.

The Oilers are legitimately outplaying their opponents more often than not and although as Oiler fans are all too aware key injuries can derail a season (as they can any teams) there is no reason to believe that the team is anything but for real.

Enjoy 2017 everyone!!

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