All posts by Mike Gerber

Edmonton Oilers, Michael Gerber, NHL

Is It All McDavid?

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We all have seen the comments. “McDavid makes Chiarelli look competent” or, “McDavid is the only reason the Oilers are in a playoff spot”, but is it true?

The short answer is no.

The best lies, the most believable ones, are made partially of truth. This, of course applies in this scenario as well; McDavid is leading the NHL in scoring after all and the Oilers are 2nd in the Pacific division after miles of road at the bottom of the league. In reality, however, these are not mutually exclusive and it may not even be the biggest reason for the leap forward.

Last year the Edmonton Oilers were 26th in goals against and a -42 goal differential as a team. This year the team is 10th in goals against and have improved the goal differential by 58 goals. Good for an average of almost an entire goal per game through the first 64 games played.

It was no secret that the Oilers biggest weakness last season was the right side of their defense and something needed to be done. All 3 of the Oilers regular Top 6 right side defenders, namely Adam Larsson, Kris Russell, and Matt Benning are new to the team. The #1, #2 and #3 right side defenders have been replaced leaving Eric Gryba as the lone holdover. Add this to the progression on the left side of Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse, a better D partner for Andrej Sekera and you get significant improvement at all 6 defensive slots.

Is the reason behind the Oilers regular season progression even the most important question anymore? Perhaps it’s shifted to how well equipped they are for the post season?

Luckily, Chiarelli has come through again with forethought and an answer for this next question before we even got around to asking it. Peter is a humble guy, he tempers expectations, sets the bar low, however; this team appears to be well equipped for playoff hockey. It would have been easy with intense pressure from ownership and fans to just make it back to the playoffs to focus on that goal alone. What he has done instead is set the team up for long-term, sustainable success through the regular season and playoffs.

If you want to know why the Oilers invested $6 Million long-term in Milan Lucic wait for the playoffs.

If you still question why they traded Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson instead of Kevin Shattenkirk, PK Subban or Tyson Barrie you’re set to find out in April.

If you question why Eric Gryba is the 7th defender instead of Brandon Davidson, you’ll get your answer in the grinding Pacific division playoffs.

If you don’t understand why the Oilers didn’t pick up PA Parenteau for cheap at the deadline and instead seem ready to push Zack Kassian up the lineup you’re going to see who comes out of the corner with the puck really soon.

It’s been a long road Oiler fans, I know you’ve enjoyed the season and are still white knuckling it down the stretch drive. Let’s sit back and appreciate the view of the top of the standings and realize that most of the criticism coming at the Oilers this season is questioning why they are so good, instead of why they are awful.

The Oilers are coming. This statement has a whole new meaning.

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Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, Michael Gerber, NHL

Is the Edmonton Oilers Success Sustainable?

The Oilers are off to a great start, second in the Pacific Division and 5 points clear of a playoff spot but is this anything more than a McDavid fueled hot start?

A good indicator of whether a team as a whole is over achieving is to look at a larger sample size than wins or team +/-. The largest data set available is the team’s Corsi For %. This indicates whether a team has possession of the puck more than their opponents.  The Oilers rank 11th in the NHL in CF% and 3rd in the Pacific Division. This shows that the Oilers are not winning games by luck, there is real improvement over the teams 48.9% 2015-16 season which ranked 12th worst in the NHL.

Among smaller but also reliable data sets the Oilers also show well with:

–          51.16% Fenwick For % (11th NHL) ,

–          51.91% Goals For % (12th NHL)

–          50.87% Shots For % (10th NHL) and

–          50.1% Scoring Chances For%

There are only 7 teams in the NHL to have a positive number in every category listed above and the Oilers are one of them. Combine these with the fact that the Oilers have an average shooting percentage and average save percentage and you have a team that is performing well across the board without running hot, unsustainable goaltending or lucky shooting.

Individually let’s start with the new captain McDavid, he’s co-leader for the scoring race in the NHL and providing consistent, elite offense with a rotating set of wingers. He’s been excellent as expected and his contribution to the Oilers position in the standings shouldn’t and won’t be ignored. Past the obvious impact of the captain is there room for optimism?

The Oilers latest winning streak is a great example, it has come at a time where the offense has not been coming in piles for McDavid. Despite this, the team has been able to come from behind to tie and win games, pushing teams around and grinding out wins along the way when finesse alone isn’t cutting it. There is real depth to this team (including defensively) and it is really showing of late.

Leon Draisaitl has been fantastic despite playing a lot of minutes with 3rd line quality wingers, putting up 1st line quality stats.

 Patrick Maroon has continued to show himself to be a capable top 6 winger on the score sheet.

Milan Lucic, despite his detractors, has been putting up good numbers and is 3rd on the team in scoring.

Mark Letestu has proven me entirely wrong as a capable power play specialist along with killing penalties and centering a 4th line that is a 5 on 5 force.

Zack Kassian continues to Kass and if he were to find a little luck from the officials might have 12-15 points from a depth role.

Matthew Benning has been fantastic, building on the Brandon Davidson happy surprise of 15-16 and giving the Oilers a very usable right shot defender.

Adam Larsson is a capable right shot 1st pairing defender.

Darnell Nurse had been very good prior to injury and has a complete skill set to go along with a maturing positional understanding of the game.

Andrej Sekera has been everything the Oilers thought they were getting when they signed him; capable and reliable in all situations.

Oscar Klefbom has been up and down but is coming off of a major period of long-term recovery and has proven every bit capable as a top 4 defender.

Cam Talbot has been a legitimate starting goaltender providing dependable regular starts.

Contributing further to that depth are a few players that have yet to contribute to full effect this season that we know have the potential to do more should the performance of others slide. The entire unit recently used for long stretches as a top line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle are underperforming based on their abilities and could very well have a rebound in 2017.

Jesse Puljuajrvi is a highly talented rookie that has been in and out of the lineup. He is the youngest player in the NHL, was and was regarded in his draft year as a better prospect than Leon Draisaitl was and was in the conversation around this time last year to unseat Auston Matthews as the #1 pick. Arguably his rookie season has been as or more successful than Draisaitl’s was and he has the potential to break out as early as the second half of this season.

The Oilers are legitimately outplaying their opponents more often than not and although as Oiler fans are all too aware key injuries can derail a season (as they can any teams) there is no reason to believe that the team is anything but for real.

Enjoy 2017 everyone!!

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Bakersfield Condors, Edmonton Oilers, Michael Gerber, NHL, Prospects

Bakersfield and Oiler Recall Options

It’s only October 20th but the list of injuries is stacking up quickly on the Oilers. Who in Bakersfield is fit for a call-up should any more arise?

Seven of the top eight players (as far as points per 60 minutes) from the 2015/16 Bakersfield season are not available for call-up. They were:

Name P/60 Where are they?
Josh Winquist 3.046 Not in Oilers System
Rob Klinkhammer 2.401 Not in Oilers System
Tyler Pitlick 2.243 On Oilers
Matt Ford 2.205 Not in Oilers System
Marco Roy 2.075 Not in Oilers System
Jujhar Khaira 1.919  Available
Anton Slepyshev 1.856 On Oilers
Bogdan Yakimov 1.788 In KHL on loan

 

The candidates for NHL duty this year are:

Bakersfield NHL Forward Prospects
Player Position G/Gp Prim P/GP P/60 5 on 5 Rank AHL GF% Age NHL Salary NHL Experience Waivers?
Taylor Beck RW 0.34 0.52 2.138 201 56.3 24          650,000  87 Games Yes
Jujhar Khaira C/LW 0.204 0.469 1.917 280 47.7 21          875,000  15 Games No
Greg Chase RW 0.056 0.278 1.726 351 64.3 20          715,000  0 Games No
Kyle Platzer C 0.085 0.191 1.46 467 40.7 20          735,000  0 Games No
Mitch Moroz LW 0.128 0.231 1.283 547 58.8 21          875,000  0 Games No
Braden Christoffer LW 0.03 0.152 0.735 27.3 21          650,000  0 Games No
Patrick Russell RW Did Not Play 2015/16 23          925,000  0 Games No
Jere Sallinen C Did Not Play 2015/16 25          792,500  0 Games No

 

Taylor Beck and Jujhar Khaira are the most likely candidates up front. Both have some NHL experience and are capable of a third or fourth line role.

Khaira had a two goal game to start the season, followed that up with another two points in game 2, and is far more important to the future of the Oilers than Beck so he likely gets the first nod should the bosses come calling.

 

Bakersfield NHL D Prospects
Player Position G/Gp Prim P/GP P/60 5 on 5 Rank AHL GF% Age  NHL Salary  NHL Experience Waivers?
Jordan Oesterle LHD 0.093 0.395 1.707 29 49.1 23          585,000  23 Games No
Joey Laleggia LHD 0.129 0.29 1.336 74 50.8 23          883,750  0 Games No
Griffin Reinhart LHD 0.067 0.167 1.216 94 50.8 21          863,333  37 Games No
Dillon Simpson LHD 0.071 0.179 1.215 95 47.7 22          836,667  0 Games No
David Musil LHD 0.045 0.121 0.735 41.8 22          600,000  4 Games Yes
Ben Betker LHD 0 0.143 0.63 36.8 20          683,333  0 Games No
Mark Fraser LHD 0.033 0.05 0.385 37.3 28          575,000  219 Games Yes
Matt Benning RHD Did Not Play 2015/16 22          925,000  0 Games No

Betker is the man on paper that was called up first. He wasn’t a part of the lineup in the season opener for Bakersfield and should an actual slot in the top 6 arise on the Oilers it won’t be Betker that gets a look in NHL action. He’s the #8 defender in Bakersfield and will resume that role again soon.

Jordan Oesterle and Griffin Reinhart both have NHL experience and didn’t look out of place in their stints with the Oilers last season.

Matt Benning outlasted both Oesterle and Reinhart in Oilers camp, eventually making the initial 23 man roster before a late return to the AHL. He has an important distinction from the rest of the group as well, he shoots right.

It will be important to see as the season progresses which left-handed D-men play and do well on the right side. In game 1 it was Oesterle and Laleggia playing their off-side.

What would your call be? Do you think the organization has enough depth on the farm? Let me know in the comments section below.

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