Tag Archives: Advanced Analytics

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, NHL

The Edmonton Oilers After 70 Games: Can You SMELL What the Playoffs Are Cooking?!

In games 61-70, the Edmonton Oilers went 5-3-2. During that timespan, they played without some key players including Connor McDavid and Oscar Klefbom but they also upgraded the overall talent on the roster with the acquisitions of Tyler Ennis, Andreas Athanasiou, and Mike Green.

I would say that the overall theme of these ten games was overachieving goaltenders. Both Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen had, in my opinion, their best games of the season. The rest of the team really shit the bed 5×5 and that is a problem because when the post-season starts the reffing isn’t going to be the same and they will not be able to solely rely on their special teams to carry them through.

What I am encouraged by though is the emergence of a bonafide 4th line. Coach Tippett said that he wanted to try out a heavy line and I don’t think you can get any heavier when you throw Jujhar Khaira, Alex Chiasson, and James Neal on the ice together. This, my friends, is a playoff line and every year there’s a line like this that catches fire in the post-season and by that, I mean that this combination of players will be able to really grind down the opposition in their own end.

It just really reminds me of the kind of 4th lines the Kings and Bruins were rolling when they were winning their Cups. How about yourself?

Record: 37-24-9 (9th)

Name Stat Overall Season Standing
GF 221 10th (+2)
GA 211 16th (=)
GF/GP 3.16 13th (+1)
GA/GP 3.01 17th (+1)
PP% 29.5% 1st (=)
PK% 84.4% 2nd (=)
Shots For/GP 29.5 28th (-2)
Shots Against/GP 32.1 11th (-5)
FOW% 48.9% 24th (=)

The special teams didn’t flinch one bit during this stretch and Edmonton seemed to do a good job of putting the puck into the net and keeping it out of their own. Faceoffs continue to be a sore spot but with that said, the Washington Capitals aren’t that great on the dot either. The shots for/against took a hit this time around though and I wonder if that’s a result of some injuries to keep possession players?

Name Stat Overall Standing
Hits 1571 9th (+3)
Blocked Shots 1050 4th (+3)
Missed Shots 753 23rd (+2)
Giveaways 785 5th (+3)
Takeaways 578 5th(+1)
Shooting Percentage 10.7% 2nd (+4)

The above stats are courtesy of NHL.com.

These numbers don’t mean a whole lot in the overall scheme of things, but I like to look at them to see where the Oilers sit in the land of grit and hard work. I think that these numbers are more for the blue-collar fan that anything.

The Fancies (5×5)

Name Stat Overall Standing
Corsi For % 47.8% 27th (-1)
Fenwick For % 48.2% 25th (-3)
Shots For% 48.1% 23rd (-3)
Goals For % 47.4% 25th (-1)
Expected Goals For % 48.3% 22nd (-3)
Scoring Chances For % 47.6% 24th (-2)
Scoring Chances Goals For % 47.2% 25th (=)
High Danger Chances For % 49.1% 20th (-3)
High Danger Goals For % 48.2% 22nd (+3)
High Danger Shooting % 18.8% 12th (-1)
High Danger Save % 81.95% 16th (+12)
PDO 0.998 19th (+6)

If any of these metrics are unfamiliar to you, please consult the Natural Stat Trick Glossary.

What jumps out at me here is the high-danger save percentage. The Oilers jumped up twelve spots in the overall standings there and what we know is that save for one dodgy performance from Mike Smith, both of Edmonton’s netminders stood on their heads for this bucket of games.

I’ll say this again (probably for the sixth or seventh time), the fancies still aren’t pretty but they haven’t been all year. Yet, the team sits pretty with regards to a playoff spot. How much do these numbers really mean in the grand scheme of things if a good team can have poor possession metrics but their location in the standings is this good?

Grab this sweet Nintendo parody shirt! Click the image above!

We’re in do or die time now folks. The Oilers do have a 4pt lead on Calgary in the Pacific Division and a 5pt gap separates them from the nearest wildcard spot. They need all hands on deck for the next week-to-ten days because if they slip and somebody else catches fire, Tippett’s boys could still end up on the outside looking in.

What will a 100% healthy roster look like and what kind of damage will it be able to do come game one of the 2020 NHL playoffs?

Here’s what the path to the 82nd game of the looks like today,

The Next Twelve Games (71-82)

  • 3/11 vs. Winnipeg Jets (36-28-6) – Winnipeg really gave it to the Oilers in their last game against each other but Edmonton’s goaltending was stellar and now McDavid is under the weather and Yamamoto is taking “maintenance days”? (LOSS)
  • 3/13 vs. New York Islanders (35-23-9) – Who would’ve guessed that the Islanders would be fighting with the Rangers for a wildcard spot in 2020? (WIN)
  • 3/15 @ Philadelphia Flyers (41-20-7) – The last back-to-back of the year starts here against the hottest team in the NHL. A lot of ppl ridiculed the Flyers when they picked up Justin Braun and Matt Niskanen, but they’ve proven to be very excellent additions so far. Top that off with some Carter Hart netminding and life is good in Philly. (LOSS)
  • 3/16 @ Washington Capitals (41-20-8) – At the time of writing, the Caps are 4-3-3 in their last ten games and that’s generally not the kind of form you want to be in at the end of the regular season. What a great hockey team this is but unless they get great goaltending, I don’t think their defense is all that amazing aside from John Carlson. (WIN)
  • 3/18 @ Ottawa Senators (25-32-12) – The Sens basically dealt away their best player and one of their most talented wingers at the deadline, in addition to that, Edmonton’s past would lead me to believe that the Sens should probably take this one. This is a different Oilers team though and I feel like they’ll win this one with ease. (WIN)
  • 3/20 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (43-20-6) – Speaking of teams that are cooling off at the wrong time. The Lightning are 3-6-1 in their last ten, they’re without Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, and the guys they picked up at the trade deadline have done diddly squat since then. Maybe by the time this game takes place Stamkos and Hedman are back in and their deadline acquisitions are scoring, but I hope not! HA! (OT LOSS)
  • 3/23 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28-32-9) – Poor John Gibson. This team is a shell of its former self but the good thing is, they’re icing quite a few youngsters and for a draft geek like myself, I dig that. (WIN)
  • 3/25 vs. Colorado Avalanche (41-20-8) – How healthy are the Avs in this one? When I was writing this on the 10th of March Nathan MacKinnon had gotten dinged up and this is a team that will only go as far as he takes them. (WIN)
  • 3/27 vs. San Jose Sharks (29-35-5) – Do you recognize any of the names on this roster? Will Evander Kane concuss another Oiler in this one? Is anybody still laughing at the fact that their first-rounder belongs to the Ottawa Senators and it’s most likely going to net the Sens a future first-line forward or top-four defender? (WIN)
  • 3/29 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28-32-9) – Might we start seeing some players getting rested around this time? You can be sure that the Ducks will be playing to win and doing it in the only way they know. The Oilers will need to be careful not to get hurt here. (WIN)
  • 3/31 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (39-24-8) – I expect there to be some fire in this one. A Vegas/Edmonton playoff series would be some great entertainment, would it not? (LOSS)
  • 4/4 vs. Calgary Flames (36-27-7) – This is how every year should end, with a final installment of the battle of Alberta. Where are the Flames in the standings in this game though? Regardless, it’ll be a very interesting game if both teams have clinched playoff spots. Not sure how physical it will be but one thing you can be sure of, Matthew Tkachuk will probably annoy Leon Draisaitl and Andrew Mangiapane will most likely score a goal. (WIN)

(Standings as of March 10th, 2020)

F*ck those guys! Click the link and grab one of these beauty shirts!
What does Kassian 3:16 mean to you? Click the pic above and get this design today!
The one time it’s okay to be a JERK! Grab this shirt while supplies last!
Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, NHL

Review: @robvollmanNHL’s Hockey Abstract 2018 Update

Click the pic above to check out our merch!

Earlier this week advanced analytics guru Rob Vollman released the 2018 update for his world famous Hockey Abstract and I decided to pick up a copy for $13 CDN and take a gander as I do with every release of Mr.Vollman’s.

You can pick up your copy here. Get the bundle by the way, it’s the best value for the price.

Now, you’re probably wondering why I, BLH, would be reading up on the fancies given what you may have read either on the blog here or on Twitter and I’d like to clear that up for you right now.

I’m not anti-fancy stats. There are personalities in the hockey analytics community that I don’t particularly like and get the brunt of my vitriol but the advanced stats I find particularly useful when it comes time to figuring out who is performing well despite the traditional stats looking poor (Lucic last year comes to mind as well as Puljujarvi) and who is performing poorly even though they might be producing on the scoresheet.

Rob Vollman is a guy I have a lot of time for because he can do what so many analytics personalities cannot. Explain things in terms that I can understand and in a manner that doesn’t feel condescending or that he’s talking down to you in any way. I respect that.

Another reason I’m doing this review is that last season Rob gave me a copy of his Hockey Abstract 2017 Update for free and I said I’d write a review and didn’t. That made me feel like a dick.

So, I give you…

The Hockey Abstract 2018 Update Review

Before we jump in, let’s take a brief look at what this year’s update is going to bring us straight from the Horse’s mouth.

Just like the updates in 2015 and 2016, the Hockey Abstract 2018 Update not only serves as an excellent companion to previous editions, and includes updates on previously introduced and sometimes hard-to-find statistical data. For those new to the series, it’s also a great stand-alone guide for team-by-team analysis.

This year’s edition is in full colour, and presents the information in a number of all-new charts and graphs courtesy of RJ Weise. It also includes 25 “stat of the day” popups by venerable long-time hockey statistician Stan Nieradka.
This year’s Hockey Abstract 2018 Update contains over 170 pages of fresh analysis, including new player usage charts and analysis for all 31 NHL teams, and updates to most of the statistics and studies that were introduced earlier in the Hockey Abstract series like:
  • Goaltending statistics, like quality starts, relief goaltending, saves above expectations (SAX), Goals saved above average (GSAA), and expected goals
  • Shot-based metrics, like SAT/Corsi, USAT/Fenwick, and expected goals, in all manpower situations
  • Player and team contract value, and aging curves
  • Coaching data
  • Real-time scoring statistics, like hitting, blocked shots, faceoffs, and drawing penalties
  • Setup passes
  • NHL Translation factors (NHLe)
  • The do-it-all index and the team accolade index
  • Disciplined aggression proxy
  • Presence and Individual Points Percentage (IPP)
  • Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP)

What I love from the Hockey Abstract year-in and year-out is the team-by-team analysis and previews going into the upcoming seasons. When reading them I get the feeling I’m just talking to a buddy (who happens to know a lot about analytics) who’s giving me a fair and balanced opinion on his team.

Here’s a snippet from this year’s Edmonton Oilers section:

It must sting for Oilers fans to see Taylor Hall lead the New Jersey Devils back into the playoffs and win the Hart Trophy in just his second season away from Edmonton.

It must also sting to see the Maple Leafs lock down John Tavares without having to sacrifice Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, or William Nylander, while the Oilers shed solid players like Jordan Eberle and still run out of cap space. Plus, it must be hard to patiently wait for those they got in return, like Adam Larsson and Ryan Strome, to reach expectations. But each of these concerns are small potatoes compared to what the Oilers can achieve with a player like Connor McDavid, which could include a Stanley Cup that would heal all wounds.

The player usage charts that have been made famous by Vollman and his team are always educational and very useful in getting a good view of how your team and its players did the previous year. Check them out here.

This year’s version is in color and while I think that’s a cool feature, I don’t really feel like its potential was met. The colors were simply okay in my opinion and hopefully, in future updates, this feature can be a bit more dynamic.

The difference between the 2017 (left) and 2018 (right) Updates.

I will say this about the player usage charts though, I liked that the defensemen and forwards were different shapes this year. Forwards being circles and dmen being diamonds.

Something that I’m missing from previous versions of the update is the Coles notes rundown of each team. Basically, Vollman went over the following categories and gave a checkmark, a star, or nothing to grade them.

  • Possession
  • The Shootout
  • Goaltending
  • Penalty Kill
  • Power Play
  • Scoring Line
  • Shutdown Line
  • Forward Depth
  • Top Pairing
  • Second Pairing
  • Defensive Depth
  • Coaching
  • Prospects

I would’ve preferred this in the 2018 Update instead of color but as my old man used to say, beggars can’t be choosers.

After each team profile there’s an analytics-based article tailored to each team. In Edmonton’s case, Blocking shots. Why is Kris Russell the best shot-blocker in the NHL and is that really helping the Oilers?

Other articles include,

  • Passing (ANH) – Why Ryan Getzlaf is a better passer than Connor McDavid.
  • The Best Goalie (CLB) – Is Phillip Grubauer as good as Sergei Bobrovsky?
  • The Best Goalie of All-Time (MTL) – Is it Ken Dryden or Dominik Hasek?
  • Individual Power Play (NYR) – Who is the NHL’s best dman/fwd on the PP?
  • Contractual Value (TB) – Which teams are managing their cap room the best?
  • Coaching (VGK) – Is a coaching staff loaded with a track record of past success better than one without?

The 2018 Update is a good 110 pages fewer this time around because there aren’t as many general articles like:

  • Who’s the best clutch scorer?
  • Why does Washington always lose in the playoffs?
  • How much cap space would a team like the 83/84 Oilers need today?
  • Can we predict injuries?
  • Why do rebuilds fail?

There are way more than that but I really enjoy those types of articles and am a tad disappointed that the 2018 Update doesn’t have them but there are only so many hours in the day.

Also, I imagine that Vollman will make up for it with his new book coming out in September called, “Stat Shot: Fan’s Guide to Analytics”.

You can pre-order that book here.

If you’re on the fence about advanced analytics or just a little curious, I recommend you pick up the Hockey Abstract Bundle here. It’s severely underpriced, I can almost guarantee that you won’t be disappointed, and you’ll be thoroughly entertained and educated.

All-in-all, I might prefer last year’s format to this year’s but that doesn’t take away from the quality of this year’s Update one iota. It’s a must buy going into the 2018/19 NHL season for any fan!

Click the image and head over to our Teepublic shop to grab some sweet BLH merch.