Monthly Archives: July 2016

Edmonton Oilers, Heather Marginet, NHL

Guest Post: Are they Crazy or is it Just Me? By Heather Marginet

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Today the lovely and talented Heather Marginet accepted our offer to join the Beer League Heroes team. We’re really stoked to have a talented writer on board and someone who can finally bring some class to the team. The following post is a guest post that she agreed to let us use to get the ball rolling. You can read it and much more at her site:

HEATHER ON HOCKEY

Follow Ms.Marginet on Twitter (@margih99) as she’s a rad chick with some great insight into the game of hockey and the Edmonton Oilers! 

On with the show!

Are they Crazy or is it Just Me?

Oh, Crap the Oilers signed Milan Lucic to a 7-year, 42 million-dollar deal they are going to regret the last 2 years of that contract! This was the common refrain from Oiler fans and around the league when the news broke. These shouts and concerns were being voiced even before he signed the deal in Edmonton. Though this was not the only long term deal signed on July 1st, Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo, Loui Eriksson, and Frans Neilsen all signed deals for either 6 or 7 years.

So this prompts some questions. Why would they be willing to take this risk? Are all the General Managers just crazy? The answer most fans give is “hell yeah!” Hold on now, there is actually another answer and it is simply cost analysis.  Hockey is a business, and general managers feel that the benefits outweigh the risks.

Lets first look at the risks associated with signing a free agent to a long-term deal.

  • Risk of injury – as players age and the wear and tear of the body increases the risk of injury becomes more common.
  •  Reduced Point Production – There is fear that the free agents are signed at an age where they may have already reached their peak.  In today’s NHL this comes at an earlier age.
  • The Diminished Asset – the team may not be able to trade this player because that production is so low.  They will either be saddled with the cap hit, or trade the player for a reduced price, or have to include an asset to dump the contract.

Obviously all of these are a risk are a concern and some might happen, none may happen, or all may happen.  The key words though are might and maybe.   General Managers are willing to take this risk because of the benefits the player provides. Lets look at these benefits.

  • They don’t have to draft and develop the player.  Using Lucic as an example the Oilers can put him into the lineup, and immediately on the 1st line.  A player like Lucic is plug and play.  They didn’t have to wait, they already know what type of player he is and they didn’t have to take the risk that he doesn’t develop.
  • They didn’t have to trade an asset to get the player.  Trading for a 55 point player is going to come at a price, it may mean robbing Peter to pay Paul, or using a lessor player to fill the hole you created elsewhere.
  • It’s the market price. Multiple teams were willing to sign Lucic for 7 years.  If you don’t play the game someone else will.

The player himself may also mitigate the risk. Let’s use Lucic as an example:

  • Lucic has never had a significant injury – he does play a game that is considered more high risk but injuries have never been a concern.
  • Lucic keeps himself in great shape, he is known for being physically fit and works hard in the off-season and during the season to keep himself that way.
  • Lucic eats properly – Peter Chiarelli noted this, during his press conference. I don’ t think I need to explain that eating properly is going to decrease the risk of the body wearing down and reduce the effect of aging on the body.

Obviously there is risk, but they are all mights and maybes.   The benefits are all real; there are no mights and maybes.  The team didn’t have to develop the player, they didn’t have to trade an asset and it is a certainly that another team would have signed Milan Lucic.   Lucic is taking the proper steps to take care of his body.

We would probably agree that paying any hockey player 7 million dollars is crazy.   In weighing the risks and the benefits, Peter Chiarelli paid no more than market value in today’s NHL.

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Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Do You Really Care About it That Much?

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FOREWARNING: If you can’t  be bothered with hearing about Taylor Hall’s supposed character flaws, this post isn’t for you. Don’t scroll down. Don’t read any further. I’m just commenting on what I heard with my own ears and if you do choose to read on, what you will hear with your own two ears or read with your own two eyes.

Seriously. You’ve been warned and you carry on at your own peril.

I was going through the Twittersphere as I usually do after dinner and I came across an interesting tweet from Lochlin Cross. Apparently he’s a radio personality in town and has a morning show on 97.5 CRUZ fm. Check it out.

Now I have to admit, I don’t know who this radio personality is. I haven’t lived in Edmonton for nearly 15 years so I can’t only imagine the radio stations that I grew up listening to are long gone by now. I only listen to 630 CHED when Oilers Now is on it and TSN 1260 for Lowetide, Gregor, Flaming, and Millard. Maybe you can fill me in on who this Lochlin Cross fella is.

Anyways, you need to check out this radio clip and what his theory on Taylor Hall being traded is. I was shocked when I heard it. If you can’t get to the clip I’ll transcribe it below.

Lochlin Cross: I had a conversation on the weekend that I thought was interesting. It was with a manager and I’m not gonna mention his name but he made a very interesting comment about his hiring practices. He hires people with very little experience and trains them to do their job. And the reason, he said, is it’s easier to train good people, it’s harder to train good humans.

He works in an industry where a lot of people who are good at those jobs aren’t necessarily good humans.

*I find the timing a tad convenient. Now that Hall is out of town, I suppose we can shit on him. Then again when he was with the team all of this was being said.*

Co-Host: So you think Taylor Hall was traded because he’s not a good human?

*R-O-U-G-H question… And very unfair in my opinion. Hitler wasn’t a good human, Stalin was not a good human. A guy that goes out and says what he feels or is looking for some company that evening, that is not a person who you should consider to be a bad human.*

LC: I honestly think that that was a part of the decision to move him out of Edmonton is ’cause he’s a dick. I’m sorry I need to use that expression but it’s the best way of describing the type of person-

*My draw seriously hit the desk when I heard Cross say this. I mean it’s different when fans say it because nobody gives flying fack. It’s just talk. But somehow when a media member comes out and says it, it has a different feel. Maybe it’s the size of the platform he has to which he can get his message out.*

CH: With his teammates?! I thought he was pretty popular with his team.

LC: Go and ask anybody in the last two years who has worked at “The Rack”.

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CH: What’s “The Rack”?

LC: It’s a bar in town!

CH: Okay.

LC: The guy’s a dick.

CH: right.

LC: He is. He’s just that kind of guy and I’m guessing that behind closed doors when they were having discussions about ya know… The chemistry in this locker room and the success that they’ve had, I’m thinking that they’re trying to put good character people in there and they’re willing to sacrifice somebody who can get them 80 points in a year.

*At this point I’m wondering if Cross had an unfortunate experience with Hall or someone close to him because it sounds like he has an axe to grind with Hall.

That being said, and correct me if I’m wrong but Hall was living with Gazdic and McDavid right? What happened to Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle? I thought they were all good friends off the ice and he only got a year with McDavid before he was moved.

Is Cross onto something? I know McDavid’s review of Hall was glowingly but he’s been trained in the arts of handling the media since he was an early teen. You can never really know unless the player/coach/manager goes off script a bit.*

CH: Yeah, cause he can. He’s led the scoring in the last three or four seasons or three out the four or whatever.

LC: He’s a great a great offensive player. I just, I think the same thing happened in Montreal. I think the same explanation can be given to the- but no one does that. No one stands up on a podium and does a press conference and goes, “Well, we got rid of him because he’s a dick.”

I wish they would! I’d love to see Peter Chiarelli say it. I would love Bergevin to say it about PK Subban. No one likes him. Yeah he’s a great player but he’s holding us back because no one wants to play on his line with him. No one wants to be in the dressing room with him.

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*I have no issues moving a player if he’s not the type for the team. Whether that be through playing style or attitude or off-ice issues, if he’s not part of the plans, he’s not. Simple as that. Maybe previous regimes couldn’t nut up and deal Hall even if they wanted to. Maybe it wasn’t a feasible option either. Perhaps the combination of getting McDavid, Puljujarvi, and Lucic in a matter of 12 months made him expendable.

But…

 

Taylor Hall seems to have a really hard time breaking onto the Team Canada roster when it plays an important tournament and Hockey Canada has the pick of the litter, add to that the return Chiarelli got for him in the trade… Is there something that management types in the NHL know that the public does not?

I suppose one can think himself into any scenario that makes sense in his/her mind if they try hard enough though, right?* 

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Click the pic and grab a 16-bit McDavid tee for the summer!

 

 

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Lucic is Taylor Fit for the Oilers

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The mourning period for Taylor Hall has almost come to a close. The Twittersphere is almost safe to return to but there are a still a few moaners out there crying over spilt milk. If you’re one of those fans who are still reeling over the trade, I want to let you know that it’s okay to be upset but it’s time to move on. Let’s embrace the players we have signed or traded for and not hold anything against them.

Now, one thing that has bothered me a little bit with this whole Lucic/Hall/Larsson deal is that there are fans and pundits that really believe that Hall wasn’t moved for Larsson and Lucic. Sure, technically the deal was Adam Larsson for Taylor Hall and then Milan Lucic was signed later on.

But come on. Who are you trying to kid?

It’s painfully obvious that Hall was being moved. You’re going to tell me that when McLellan and/or Chiarelli talked about culture and attitude during the season, you didn’t think about Hall? I mean Chiarelli said that they were trading Hall no matter what because they needed a right-shot D. Regardless of if Lucic was signing in Edmonton or not.

And consider this quote as well:

  • “we’ve lost a good player, a very good player, in Taylor, who was a real significant part of this team. But I feel we’ve improved by the style of player that we’ve brought in and our approach to the game.” – Peter Chiarelli

A “good player” only? Not an elite player or one of the best in the league?… Chiarelli feels that the team has improved by the style of player. That says to me that perhaps he wasn’t a fan of the way Hall played the game or he prefers Lucic’s style.

Chia also feels that they’ve improved in their approach to the game… Wowzas! Surely you’ve got to read into that a bit, no? What was so wrong with Hall’s approach to the game? Was he not on board with what the coach and/or GM were selling? Now if I’m not mistaken, I thought that Taylor Hall was one of the hardest workers on and off the ice. Do you think that was just a sweeping statement and had nothing to do with Hall individually?

ADAM LARSSON

A lot has already been said about the big Swede that I don’t need to get into. I think it’ll go one of two ways for him. 1) He might find some offense playing for the Oilers and be a huge find for Chiarelli or 2) he’ll be a very quiet stay-at-home defenseman like Teppo Numminen was for the Jets or what Kevin Lowe was in his playing days.

I do have a couple of questions for you stats guys out there.

What are defensive point shares? How do they define a defenseman?

I went to Hockey-Reference.com to check on some stats and I found out that Adam Larsson was 2nd in the NHL for defensive point shares between Drew Doughty and Ryan Suter. Needless to say that perked my interest. You can check out the stats at the bottom of this page.

The fact of the matter is, the Oilers have players that could’ve covered for Hall on the LW in the top 6. Benoit Pouliot and Pat Maroon both spent time on the top two lines last year. Now that’s not to say they are on the same page or even in the same stratosphere as Taylor Hall but they must be valued by someone in the organization quite a bit for Chiarelli to make that statement.

This trade and signing was made to change the image of the team. Some might even say it was a culture change. The team has been bullied for far too long by the tanks that patrol the Pacific Division and I can’t wait to see what the Big Bad Oilers have got in store.

LOOCH

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Milan Lucic is a first-line left-wing in the NHL and don’t let anybody else tell you he isn’t. A lot of people will say he doesn’t compare to Hall and if we’re using style of play and fancy stats as gauges to implement that comparison then they’re right. But it’s like comparing Chester, that big bulldog who had the little dog running around him all of the time, to the Road Runner from Looney Tunes or if you want to put it in hockey comparisons, it’s Brendan Shanahan to Mike Gartner. Weird, one of those players never won a Stanley Cup and the other won three…

I know we’ve spent a lot of time comparing Hall and Lucic with the fancy stats and I’ve got zero issues with that. Whatever tickles your fancy but what if we just focused on the basic stats for a moment?

In the last six seasons Lucic and Hall really have put up similar numbers.

  • Hall: 381gp 132g 196a 328pts
  • Lucic: 448gp 125g 183a 308pts

I know what you’re going to say but are you really going to punish Milan Lucic for being able to stay healthy despite the style of game he plays? I mean shouldn’t we be jacked that we finally have THE Milan Lucic on the team?

I’ve heard some speak of Lucic’s impending loss of foot speed or lack of current foot speed and you know what? It doesn’t bother me. You don’t think for one second that the GM and coach have considered this? You don’t reckon the game plan might be to gain the offensive zone with control of the puck thus negating the need to dump and chase. Even if the chip and chase strategy is used, you’re telling me that the other players who’ll be on the ice at that time won’t be able to compensate for  Lucic’s lack of after burners. His game is not speed, it’s muscle and that is something that the Oilers GM and coach cherish.

Taylor Hall wasn’t hard on the puck meaning he was easily disposed of it. Be that through body contact or just falling down or making a poor decision with the puck, it doesn’t matter. Do you think that those will be problems for Milan Lucic?

Also, consider how Lucic changes the powerplay. The team can now afford to set up Milan Lucic in front of the net on one PP unit and Pat Maroon on the other. Now, I sure hope they can find a way to get a nice right-handed defenseman who can bomb the puck. Tyson Barrie’s sailboat looks to be sailing with a better gust of wind that the Oilers’. I’d be surprised if something happens there and I reckon Chiarelli feels the same.

Friend of the blog Ryan Robinson has a great vlog out detailing his reasons as to why he loves the Milan Lucic signing. Check it out below and then check out the new Tee shirt design and my updated depth chart at the end of this post!

THE DEPTH CHART

L1: Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
L2: Pouliot – Nuge – Yakupov
L3: Maroon – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
L4: Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian
Extra: Lander, Pakarinen

D1: Klefbom – Larsson
D2: Sekera – Fayne
D3: Nurse – Davidson
Extra: Reinhart

PP1: Lucic – McDavid – Eberle – Klefbom – Yakupov
PP2: Maroon – Draisaitl – Nuge – Davidson – Sekera

What do you think about Lucic being on par with Hall from a basic stats viewpoint? Let me know in the comments below.

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

The Day After: Looch, Goose, and the Nuge

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I remember all those years ago when we’d bitch and moan that we didn’t have a guy like Milan Lucic on the team. Now we do and I can’t be happier. To put it in context, I as happy that Lucic is an Oiler as the fanbase was sad that Taylor Hall was traded. Honestly, it’s game f*cking on in Oil Country and I truly hope that the rest of the teams in the NHL are ready for the juggernaut that is about to roll through the league come October.

FREE AGENCY DAY ONE

Signed:

  • Milan Lucic – 7 years at $6 million per year
    • The thing I dig about this contract is that is front loaded. In those final three years, the ones that the stats community are worried about, he makes an average of just over $4M per year.
  • Jonas Gustavsson – 1 year at $800k per year
  • Mark Fraser – (2-way) 1 year at $575k per year
    • This is a two-way deal. Some are suggesting it’s cover in case of injury but I have to wonder if it’s something more than that. He’s a leftie and the Oilers quite simply have too many left-handed shooters on D right now. I wonder if there’s a trade in the works to move a prospect like Griffin Reinhart, Dillon Simpson, or David Musil…

I love the Lucic signing and see him as the Semenko to McDavid’s Gretzky. The Gustavsson signing I’m not too sure about. He doesn’t have the same pedigree at backup goalie as Talbot did before the Oilers traded for him. I’ll have to reserve judgment on Fraser as I have no idea if he’ll even play a game next year for the team. He’s a big guy, not afraid to muck it up and isn’t the worst defenseman to sign.

The Oilers are still left with the task of finding a right-shot puck moving PP defenseman and possibly a third line centre who’s also a right-shot. They have a shade over $8 million left in cap room, so if they wanted to they could add another substantial contract. They’re also only sitting at 43 contracts out of 50.

THE OILERS DEPTH CHART TO DATE

L1: Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
L2: Maroon – Draisaitl – Yakupov
L3: Pouliot – RNH – Puljujarvi
L4: Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian
Extra: Lander, Pakarinen

D1: Klefbom – Larsson
D2: Sekera – Fayne
D3: Nurse – Davidson
Extra: Reinhart, Fraser

I think there’ll be a few of you that will ask about the forwards being lined up as such. I believe that the days of the traditional line set up is over. There’s no scoring line 1, scoring line 2, shutdown line, checking/energy line. Now each team must have three lines that can contribute. That is why I have Puljujarvi with RNH and Pouliot. He’ll need to be insulated in his first year or two at least. You can’t throw him to the wolves and the top line of Lucic, McDavid, and Eberle is a bona fide top scoring line in the NHL. You could toss Yak up there and see what he does but I reckon Ebs is firmly entrenched there for the time being. The Draisaitl, Maroon, Yak line could be taken advantage of by the opposition as it’s not the fastest or the most defensive.

THE COLORADO AVALANCHE

The Avs are going to move a defenseman, it’s not a matter of IF but WHEN. Yesterday that added left-shot Fedor Tyutin (recently bought out by Columbus) and fancy stats darling and right-handed shot Patrick Wiercioch. So the Avs D corps. looks like this right now:

Erik Johnson – Nikita Zadorov
Francois Beauchemin – Chris Bigras
Fedor Tyutin – Tyson Barrie
Eric Gelinas – Patrick Wiercioch

I don’t get this team. I loved Sakic and Roy as players but they’re bending this roster over and going in dry with the way their treating its stars. Are they seriously thinking of taking Tyson Barrie to arbitration? For real? They must be a sucker for losing because Barrie is going to wipe the floor with them in that case.

Edmonton needs to get on this and if you follow Ryan Rishaug on Twitter you’d think the deal is already in the bag.

I couldn’t tell you what the return might be here. I think if you’ve got your ear to the ground you’d probably say Eberle or Nugent-Hopkins but I have to wonder if Chiarelli will try to sell Colorado on Yakupov or Reinhart.

We’ve got a few new shirts in the shop now folks! We’d love it if you’d head over and pick one up as the proceeds go to keeping the site alive. Click on the pics below and you’ll be sent directly to that shirts page. If you’d like to check out our other designs, some being Oilers-related but all teams are represented, you can go HERE.

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Click the pic and grab a 16-bit McDavid tee for the summer!
Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Lucic an Edmonton Oiler!!

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Click on the pic and grab a new 16-bit Fighting Looch tee!

MILAN LUCIC IS AN EDMONTON OILER!! GLORY TO THE HOCKEY GODS!

Dust off the 27 jersey because the modern day Dave Semenko is now an Edmonton Oiler! Milan Lucic has signed a 7 year deal worth $42 million.

https://twitter.com/RealKyper/status/748910903349747712

Initial reactions to the deal would be as follows:

  • Nobody will ever touch Connor McDavid again.
  • Taylor who?
  • Will we be looking at a buyout in the latter years of his deal?
  • Calgary do your best.
  • Will Lucic age like a Jaromir Jagr or like a Mike Richards?

The depth chart is looking like this right now (15 minutes after 10am)

Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
Maroon-Draisaitl-Yakupov
Pouliot-RNH-Puljujarvi
Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Fayne
Nurse-Davidson

I think we’re waiting on the Colorado Avalanche to implode so that the Oilers can make a move on Tyson Barrie. That will more than likely affect the forward core meaning one of Jordan Eberle or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be on the move.

Minnesota signed Eric Staal, so I imagine that’s a destination less likely for Nugent-Hopkins.

Shocked that the Oilers are moving all of those 1st overall picks? You shouldn’t be. Quebec did it back in the day and won a Cup after…

We’ll have a more detailed post coming up on the day’s signings or moves a bit later on. Stay tuned!!