Hall was never at its best in those matches, where he was most needed, says the Swede. – Oscar Klefbom (source)
Well well well. This article is going to be a Hall-ogists worst nightmare. One of Taylor Hall’s own former teammates speaking out against him… Today is going to be fun on Twitter…
This article written by Ola Winther from HockeySverige.se was posted earlier today. The post is an interview between Winther and current Oiler Oscar Klefbom. It’s in Swedish so you’ll need to get it translated. I’m going to offer some google translated quotes in this post and comment on them.
“Taylor has been our best player in recent years, but it’s also hard to tell what he has contributed. He never played his best games against the tougher teams, which we really needed it. However, he was fantastic when we met the little inferior teams.”
Wow. Isn’t that a telling quote and from a highly regarded teammate no less. Personally, I have felt the same but it is something that should be investigated and I’m sure someone online is already working on finding out how Hall did versus the “little inferior teams”.
I harken back to the most recent World Championships where Hall put up most of his points versus the worst teams in Canada’s division and then disappeared for the rest of the tourney apart from a blowout against Sweden where he had 2 points.
This is what Klefbom had to say about the Oilers adding Adam Larsson:
“Adam makes us a better team. I think the team has improved. We already have so many promising forwards and we did not really have a peak reverse is rightare. I also think Adam gets a real breakthrough this year and hopefully I get the chance to play with him and forming chemistry.”
Klefbom speaks with incredible optimism here and for a guy that has gone through the troubles he has as an individual and a teammate of Hall’s, I dig it. I like how he talks about the team as a whole which is what folks like Lowetide have been getting at when they’ve talked about balance.
No doubt about it, Lowe, MacTavish, Tambellini, and Eakins f*cked this team over something royal when they decided that they needed to draft skilled forwards with their 1st overalls. Now we’re THIS close to seeing all of them gone but McDavid.
The Swedish defender on Lucic:
“We have received important players like Adam and Milan Lucic. Lucic is otherwise exactly the kind of player we need – a player who can create space for others.”
Oscar speaks the truth here and funny that he didn’t talk about attitude, swagger or intimidation when referring to Lucic as others in the organization have done so since the Oilers added “Looch”. He kept it dry and honest.
The interview does go on to talk about how Klefbom dealt with his injuries and the rehabilitation involved. Klefbom talks about Larsson getting an apartment in the same building as him, who he’s been training with this summer, and how he felt about last year overall.
The day is upon us! I imagine it will be quite anti-climatic for Oilers fans. Tyson Barrie will be a member of the Colorado Avalanche for one or two more seasons at least because the Avs simply have all of the power right now. If I’m not mistaken Barrie is under team control for at least another two years. So the ball is in their court unless Barrie wants to steal it and run home with it.
Woodguy had another great spot on Lowetide’s show yesterday and in it he talked about Barrie and Trouba. I’m going to do my best to transcribe it below and then comment on it because he made some interesting points regarding the two with regards to the Oilers. If you want to listen to it I’ll put the soundcloud link at the end of the transcription. The talk about Trouba/Barrie starts around minute 33.
*I got in touch with Woodguy after this post was finished and he told me he’d mis-said somethings and tweeted out the following to clear them up*
Yesterday on @LowdownLowetide I mis-spoke about Barrie, Davidson, Trouba and Hamonic. I was thinking "expected goals" but was saying "shots"
LT:Is he (Barrie) a good fit, a great fit, or a perfect fit for the Oilers?
WG:I think he’s a good fit Al. The shine has come off of Barrie for me a little bit as I keep digging deeper and deeper into defensemen trying to figure out what makes them good. And as I dig deeper into defensemen Al, I value points less and I value possession more and defending more, the ability to defend and the ability to turn the puck up ice. I value that more than points.
So for instance if you had a Jacob Trouba on one side and Barrie on the other, they’re both available for the exact same dollars, I take Trouba 100 times out of 100 because of how he plays 5×5, how he defends 5×5 and his ability to transition the puck.
He affects the shots against in a good way, the shots for in a good way and Barrie does that but not on the same scale and actually Barrie doesn’t do that. The shots against go up when Barrie’s on the ice. He’s a bit of a saloon door that way but he scores so much that you kinda forgive him for it.
But I want a guy that’s better both ways, a guy that affects the shots for in a positive way, a guy that affects the shots against in a positive way.
Pick up a 16-bit Larsson today!!
LT:And that’s Hamonic.
WG:That’s Hamonic, that’s uhhhhh. Actually Hamonic. No, it’s not Hamonic. The shots against go up when Hamonic is on the ice.
No, there’s only a few guys who can do that and the list is shorter than I thought it’d be and believe it or not, Trouba falls into that list.
So, you know, and you have RNH and McDavid, so I don’t think the Oilers really need a PP quarterback out on that right-hand defenseman, they just need a shot and Trouba’s got a howitzer.
You know, one of the reasons I’m starting to value points less 5×5 Al, think about this.
LT:This is about defenseman.
WG:This is about defensemen, the top 10 NHL teams in goals for last year, Washington didn’t have a Barrie-type, Florida had Campbell mehhh.
LT:What about Mike Green?
WG:Mike Green played for Detroit last year. Old man.
Dallas had Klingberg and that’s one thing and he’s there and Pittsburgh had Letang, Rangers had McDonagh. So they kinda had one guy but then you have Boston, Tampa, the Islanders, Calgary, Columbus.
No one is that Barrie-Type yet, these guys (teams) score the most. If you look at why they score the most, you look at their overall defense core in terms of transitioning the puck. The Rangers kinda stick out like a sore thumb but otherwise those are pretty decent teams defense core-wise. Columbus is a little weird but we can get into that, they have a really nice set of forwards in terms of possession and scoring.
But that’s your top 5×5 scoring teams Al and that’s where the Oilers really need help and you don’t necessarily need a Barrie-type, you need a solid solid top four. So if you can add a Trouba and I think that helps the Oilers much much much more than a Barrie.
Isn’t that crazy? I was under the impression that Barrie was far and away the better player. But if we take a look at some of the charts we have available like the HERO chart and Ryan Stimson’s passing project chart (I’m not sure how often this chart is being updated though, it says last updated in July of 2015… So take that chart with a grain of salt).
Be forewarned, the post is about to get a bit long due to the charts and stats. If you want to you can scroll down a bit and you’ll probably get the gist in the conclusion.
(HERO chart) courtesy of http://ownthepuck.blogspot.tw/
(Passing chart) http://ownthepuck.blogspot.tw/
So even with these two charts, it’s tough to discern who is truly the better of the two. You’d probably look at both charts and say Barrie is much better than Trouba but what if we use the Woodmoney metrics to toss some more confusion into the salad bowl?
Name
TOI
Competition
Conf.
DFF/60
DFA/60
Tyson Barrie
278:22
Elite
West
40.6
49.4
Tyson Barrie
139:52
Elite
East
33.5
46.4
Tyson Barrie
208:51
Elite
Home
41
52.1
Tyson Barrie
209:23
Elite
Away
35.5
44.6
Tyson Barrie
418:14
Elite
Both
38.2
48.4
Tyson Barrie
319:29
Muddle
West
35.1
41.5
Tyson Barrie
229:33
Muddle
East
34.8
40.8
Tyson Barrie
280:37
Muddle
Home
34.7
40.7
Tyson Barrie
268:25
Muddle
Away
35.3
41.8
Tyson Barrie
549:02
Muddle
Both
35
41.2
Tyson Barrie
292:22
Dregs
West
28.5
40.8
Tyson Barrie
163:22
Dregs
East
45.4
43
Tyson Barrie
197:46
Dregs
Home
34.6
46.2
Tyson Barrie
257:58
Dregs
Away
34.5
38
Tyson Barrie
455:44
Dregs
Both
34.5
41.6
Tyson Barrie
1423:00
All
All
35.8
43.4
So with Barrie, we can see that he had his most successful defensive deployment versus the “dregs” of the NHL when Colorado was away from home. Basically the bottom tier of players. And his most successful offensive deployment came against the “dregs” of the Eastern Conference.
All in All, his dangerous fenwick for per sixty isn’t great and neither is his dangerous fenwick against per sixty. He puts up points at the sacrifice of his team’s defence is how I am reading things.
Name
TOI
Competition
Conf.
DFF/60
DFA/60
Jacob Trouba
304:48
Elite
West
45.2
41
Jacob Trouba
148:17
Elite
East
30.4
36.1
Jacob Trouba
217:21
Elite
Home
40
37.4
Jacob Trouba
235:44
Elite
Away
40.7
41.3
Jacob Trouba
453:05
Elite
Both
40.4
39.4
Jacob Trouba
274:11
Muddle
West
37
31.9
Jacob Trouba
209:06
Muddle
East
46.6
35.5
Jacob Trouba
244:54
Muddle
Home
42.2
32.3
Jacob Trouba
238:23
Muddle
Away
40.1
34.6
Jacob Trouba
483:17
Muddle
Both
41.2
33.4
Jacob Trouba
272:51
Dregs
West
44.1
32.2
Jacob Trouba
178:41
Dregs
East
41.2
40.3
Jacob Trouba
208:12
Dregs
Home
52.3
30.9
Jacob Trouba
243:20
Dregs
Away
34.9
39.3
Jacob Trouba
451:32
Dregs
Both
43
35.4
Jacob Trouba
1387:54
All
All
41.5
36
Jacob Trouba’s most successful defensive deployment came when we was put out against the “dregs” when Winnipeg played away from home and his most successful offensive deployment came versus against the same competition.
The big difference between Trouba and Barrie here is in the final tallies.
I believe the numbers are telling me that Jacob Trouba is a far a better defenseman than Tyson Barrie and that flows with what Woodguy was saying. He creates more dangerous shot attempts per sixty and he prevents more dangerous shot attempts per sixty minutes than Tyson Barrie.
What are their impacts on teammates?
charts courtesy of http://www.corsica.hockey/combos/
Trouba’s WOWYs come out on top as well.
So one (as an Oilers fan) really has to ask themselves, are the Edmonton Oilers better off with a Jacob Trouba-type or a Tyson Barrie-type?
For me, I love what Jacob Trouba brings to the table. He’s mean, he can play actual defense and he’s got a bloody hard shot. He’s the modern-day Dave Manson in my opinion. Probably a better skater. But his contract demands scare me a bit. Would that be an issue in the future? Could you imagine a top six like this:
Klefbom/Larsson
Sekera/Trouba
Nurse/Davidson
Good Lord have mercy on the forwards of the NHL!!
That being said though, the Oilers haven’t had an pure offensive dman in some time. A guy that can put up points from the… Point would be quite the addition but I’m not sure it’s a pertinent need for Edmonton right now. I’d rather have a defense that can move the puck efficiently to the forwards and let them do the scoring.
If the Oilers can produce an offensive dman from within (Joey Laleggia/Jordan Oesterle??) and toss him out there with cherry minutes and soft zone starts whilst getting some PP minutes, what’s the hurt in that? This would allow them to move a Brandon Davidson into the no.4 spot on defense and give the Oilers a very solid top-two pairings, each with a shut-down defenseman and a puck mover.
From my understanding the Oilers have talked to the Jets in the past and we know they’ve been talking to the Avalanche. As far as I know these have been the asks from each team for their player:
Winnipeg wanted Oscar Klefbom AND Darnell Nurse for Jacob Trouba.
Colorado wants Jordan Eberle and Brandon Davidson for Tyson Barrie and Jarome Iginla (apparently).
Now, doesn’t that throw a wrench into things. If that’s the cost of doing business, I think that the shop should be closed for the summer in E-town. The Oilers finally have some depth in nearly every position and there’s competition for the top six forwards and the bottom four defensemen. I would say that this would be a good time to stand pat and see what the players within the organization can offer before making another trade or signing.
What do you think? I hope I haven’t butchered the understanding of those stats but if I have let me know in the comments below!
I know what you’re thinking: the Oilers blogosphere definitely needs another article about our defensive situation. But mostly, those articles have been focused on the addition of our new Swedish stud (yes, I’m calling him a stud already) Adam Larsson, and how the “upper echelons” of the d-core will look going forward. I don’t think there’s too much debate left about what our top-2 looks like next season. Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson should have no problem anchoring our back-end for many years to come. (Provided they both stay healthy, of course. #PrayForKlefbomsFoot.)
Perhaps even the top-4 isn’t too hard to predict, either. Andrej Sekera’s numbers proved last season that he’s a perfectly serviceable top-4 d-man who, through necessity, was pushed into a top-2 role. He also had a penchant for scoring cool O-ver-TIIIIIIME winners. His individual production wasn’t anything to write home about in general, really, but his shot generation and productive possession was fantastic (RelCF/60: 3.95, and RelCD/60: 3.36 respectively). So that’s the left side shored up. As far as the right side muddle pair goes, there are about 3.625 million reasons why one would reasonably expect Mark Fayne to live there. According to the numbers, though, I firmly expect Brandon Davidson to be the guy.
Can you see any category in which Mark Fayne is more clearly a top-4 defenceman than Brandon Davidson? I’m squinting real hard and I just can’t do it. In fact, the harder I look, the more I see Davidson hitting top-pairing status sooner rather than later if his trajectory even kind of holds course.
So who does that leave us with for the bottom pair? Fayne, obviously, unfortunately. I don’t really like the guy, and I think he’s unforgivingly overpaid, but he’s not useless, and I’m sure I’ll end up eating my words once he starts only taking up bottom-pairing minutes. He’ll probably pull a Jultz and end up playing half-decently. (This just in: defencemen look better with limited minutes and when playing within their skill role, not being force-fed minutes because of injuries and wishful thinking. More at 12.) Fayne won’t be putting up big numbers; he’s a shutdown guy through and through. But his shot suppression is workable at a RelCA/60 of -0.73, and he has the years of experience to know basically where he should be most of the time.
And for the left side? I’m throwing my lot in with Jordan Oesterle. There’s a common school of thought in creating defensive pairings that the limitations of particular defenders should compliment each other. In this case, Oesterle’s offence shows incredible promise (with admittedly a smallish sample size) in individual production (his PP/60 is 0.68) and productive possession (RelCD/60 of 4.61). He sits a full 2 points higher in CF% (47), and has a relative WOWY spread of only -2% rather than -5%, when compared with Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart. We saw at the end of last season how composed Oesterle looked in his first passes and zone exits, and at least to my eyes, he never really looked out of his element in whatever situation in which TMac placed him.
Where does this leave Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart? Nursey I’d like to see have a full season or two unencumbered by NHL duties in the A, bulking up his tall frame, playing tough minutes, and refining the specifics of his game. He needs to decide just what kind of a defenceman he’s going to be. We saw him last season toy around with a quick, attacking defensive style, taking it upon himself to carry pucks deep and try to create offence. We saw him go the goon route and pretty convincingly beat the shit out of a few unfortunate opposition tough guys. Can he be all of it? Man, I hope so! He’s got all the tools and seemingly all the drive and desire in the world to do it. But he’s never going to be able to get there if he’s being used up with ridiculous minutes and being put in situations no reasonable first-or-second-year d-man really should be.
As for Griffin, I don’t even know, guys. He’s just… not very good… at the hockeys. Maybe he has big potential, maybe he doesn’t. But I’d rather see the Oilers organization focus their growth and development efforts into their young guns like Davidson, Oesterle, Nurse, and Bear who have at least shown flashes of brilliance in some category or another, rather than a guy who we only ever hear about having potential.
Well here we stand on July 27th of 2016 and the Edmonton Oilers are a much different-looking team. It’s a tougher team. A Stronger team. One with more “swagger” and “attitude” yet I’m still getting messages that the team is looking to add to that.
I know. I get it. The hardest thing in the world is to take seriously a website called Beer League Heroes and your Oilers insider news from someone whose Twitter handle is @beerleagueheroe… But it is what it is and like I always say, you can believe it or not but anybody living back home in Canada knows it’s not that hard to be connected to someone within a professional hockey team.
In the end, these things rarely go down and it is also silly season, so we’re bound to hear all sorts of things, right? Let’s just enjoy them for what they are!
The Word on the Street
Sounds like the Oilers WERE in on James Wisniewski but are not now. He was supposedly looking for around $27 million over 5 years and the Oilers were only offering around $13.5 million over 3 years.
A bit of madness on Wisniewski’s part no? Bloody guy just had his knee done up, missed all of last year and is looking for raise? On the other side of the coin, it’s been laughable reading the tweets of folks wanting to get him in on a PTO… Not gonna happen. He’ll be looking for a guaranteed roster spot or it’s off to Europe.
The Oilers could be one of eight teams in on Kris Russell. Number being tossed out there is $4Mx3-4yrs
Yikes! Apart from changing things up in the dressing room culture-wise, I don’t see the point in the Oilers doing this? How many left-handed dmen do they need? Honestly! They’ve got some really nice pieces on the back-end coming up in Nurse, Davidson and Reinhart; and Mark Fayne is already taking up that obligatory overpaid bottom-pairing spot. Why even move on Russell?
Oilers will be going all in on Tyson Barrie but they want Nugent-Hopkins in return and the Oilers have outright said no to that. It’ll be wingers and picks if Colorado wants to deal with Edmonton or the deal won’t go down.
So yeah, there it is. In my heart, I don’t believe that the Oilers will end up with Barrie unless they’re moving Eberle. I have a tough time believing the Avalanche would accept a deal made up of Benoit Pouliot, Brandon Davidson, and/or the 2017 1st round pick but I think that is what Chiarelli is trying to do.
Going into the 2016 season will be much easier than expected. The defense is really improved with the additions of Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson and with Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, and Griffin Reinhart coming in one year older, one year stronger, and one year smarter. Andrej Sekera and Mark Fayne are a solid pairing to boot.
If the Oilers can’t find that puck-mover this season, Jordan Oesterle paired with a good stay-at-home dman might be an option as well. He performed very well at the end of last year with regards to moving the puck either by rush or pass. That being said, he might be the Matt Irwin of this group.
Every morning before I even get out of bed, I grab my iPad and open up my Feedly app to see what has happened in the world of hockey while I was asleep. Usually not a whole lot goes down but every now and then there’s something notable like a contract signing, a player getting in trouble with the law, or a trade rumour.
We’re going to talk about the trade rumour that surfaced on one blog called The Hockey Press but another blog called Puck Gone Wild (I dig the name) dedicated an entire post on it, to which I am going to talk about today.
So if you don’t want to head over to the blog, I’ll be quoting different parts of it below and commenting on it, otherwise head over and read it for yourself. The comments section is pretty funny coming from an Oilers fan perspective.
Let’s get started.
THE RUMOR
The rumor is that the deal would see the Wild send Matt Dumba and Jason Zucker, for Nugent-Hopkins and “more”. The Hockey Press believes that the “more” piece was Benoit Pouliot. The Oilers have not responded to the Wild, and it’s furthered rumored by the Hockey Press that the Oilers are holding out for a high draft pick or prospect to add to the pile due to Nugent-Hopkins’ value to the current Oiler lineup.
Gonna just shake my head at this one right off the bat. Are you facking kidding me? I’ll tell you this, IF the Oilers made this deal, it would be far worse than the Taylor Hall trade in my opinion. The Oilers have actual centre depth right now. Other things to consider include:
Is Leon Draisaitl ready to shoulder the load that comes with being a no.2 centre in the NHL right now. We don’t know that because apparently he was riding Taylor Hall’s coattails last season…
Nuge had one down year due to injury and now his value is that of a Jason Zucker? No offense to Zucker but come on now, let’s get real.
Would the Wild want to re-acquire Benoit Pouliot? Really?
The trade offer as reported is actually very fair and would be beneficial for the Wild. With the idea of moving Dumba is not an issue, as the Wild have been preparing the team for life without one of their current defensive lineup.
How is this deal fair? The writer makes it seem like Dumba is unneeded by the Wild. Cannon fodder for a trade if you will. I imagine this is similar to how Oilers fans view Yakupov or Griffin Reinhart. So why would the Oiler deal TWO mainstays within their forward corps. for the Wild’s cast-offs?
But the combination of two of the Wild’s best young players might be too much value for Nugent-Hopkins.
But I thought the Wild were preparing to lose one or two of these players? If they’re two of the best, surely they’d want to hold on to them, no?
Furthermore, it just seems that from the start the Oilers have valued Dumba much less than Wild did.
Well duh! As they should be. I heard on Bob Stauffer’s show Oilers Now! that Chuck Fletcher and Peter Chiarelli were talking trade at the draft and the conversation was about RNH but Fletcher was only willing to part with Dumba because of the pickle Chiarelli was in.
So it’s not the Oilers that are so enamoured with Matt Dumba, it’s that the Wild are trying to give it to Chiarelli hard and dry and at this point there’s no reason for the Oilers to take it like that. They’re not as desperate as they were before that Hall trade and they could go into next season without that the right-handed shooter to run the powerplay and be okay.
So enter the “more” or in this case Pouliot. By asking for a player like Pouliot the Wild are trying to fill a need which is another 3rd/4th line wing. Right now the organization had options to fill that open spot in the lineup, but most of them are unexperienced. By using Zucker to sweeten the pot the Wild open up that lineup spot in the forward corps while at the same time compelling the Oilers to offer something more than just Nugent-Hopkins.
So let me get this straight. The Oilers would trade their a centre who as of recent has been one of the most played centres in the entire NHL and no.2 left-wing who made huge contributions playing with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Connor McDavid for a no.6 dman and a winger who went -8 and only put up 23pts in 71 games last year… NO THANKS!
THE FINANCIALS
There’s only really about two ways they can close this salary cap deficit. The Wild can offer another player with a $3.3 million or more annual hit, or they can get the Oilers to retain $3.3 million or more of Nugent-Hopkins or Pouliot’s salary.
So in this scenario the Oilers would gain cap space and could certainly eat $3.3 million or more to make this deal work. The only issue is, do the Oilers want to give up that money badly enough to acquire Dumba and Zucker?
Oh boy… The Oilers could eat $3.3 million for how many years of Nuge’s deal? The Wild would have better luck seeing if the Oilers would take some of Pouliot’s deal given the term is shorter IF they were so desperate to make it happen.
I’m really shocked that this article didn’t mention the Wild trying to pilfer Jason Pominville and his mega contract. That’s the route I would’ve went.
I mean in my mind the only way that Nuge leaves the Oilers is if that true no.3/4 right-handed PP dman comes back. We’re talking the Tyson Barries, the Jacob Troubas, the Rasmus Ristolainens, or the Hampus Lindholms (I know he’s a lefty).
I would consider Charlie Coyle though. A big (6’3 218lb) right-handed centre (something the Oilers covet) who just came off a 40+ point season.
So let’s flip the script, how about the Oilers give the Wild Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Benoit Pouliot, and Griffin Reinhart for Charlie Coyle, Matt Dumba, Jason Zucker and a 2nd round pick?
Am I missing something here? Maybe I am overvaluing the Oilers players. Let me know what you think in the comments!
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