Tag Archives: Jordan Oesterle

Edmonton Oilers, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL

The Oilers’ 2016-17 Bottom Pairing: The Last Line of Defence

2 Comments

I know what you’re thinking: the Oilers blogosphere definitely needs another article about our defensive situation. But mostly, those articles have been focused on the addition of our new Swedish stud (yes, I’m calling him a stud already) Adam Larsson, and how the “upper echelons” of the d-core will look going forward. I don’t think there’s too much debate left about what our top-2 looks like next season. Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson should have no problem anchoring our back-end for many years to come. (Provided they both stay healthy, of course. #PrayForKlefbomsFoot.)

Perhaps even the top-4 isn’t too hard to predict, either. Andrej Sekera’s numbers proved last season that he’s a perfectly serviceable top-4 d-man who, through necessity, was pushed into a top-2 role. He also had a penchant for scoring cool O-ver-TIIIIIIME winners. His individual production wasn’t anything to write home about in general, really, but his shot generation and productive possession was fantastic (RelCF/60: 3.95, and RelCD/60: 3.36 respectively). So that’s the left side shored up. As far as the right side muddle pair goes, there are about 3.625 million reasons why one would reasonably expect Mark Fayne to live there. According to the numbers, though, I firmly expect Brandon Davidson to be the guy.

Can you see any category in which Mark Fayne is more clearly a top-4 defenceman than Brandon Davidson? I’m squinting real hard and I just can’t do it. In fact, the harder I look, the more I see Davidson hitting top-pairing status sooner rather than later if his trajectory even kind of holds course.

So who does that leave us with for the bottom pair? Fayne, obviously, unfortunately. I don’t really like the guy, and I think he’s unforgivingly overpaid, but he’s not useless, and I’m sure I’ll end up eating my words once he starts only taking up bottom-pairing minutes. He’ll probably pull a Jultz and end up playing half-decently. (This just in: defencemen look better with limited minutes and when playing within their skill role, not being force-fed minutes because of injuries and wishful thinking. More at 12.) Fayne won’t be putting up big numbers; he’s a shutdown guy through and through. But his shot suppression is workable at a RelCA/60 of -0.73, and he has the years of experience to know basically where he should be most of the time.

And for the left side? I’m throwing my lot in with Jordan Oesterle. There’s a common school of thought in creating defensive pairings that the limitations of particular defenders should compliment each other. In this case, Oesterle’s offence shows incredible promise (with admittedly a smallish sample size) in individual production (his PP/60 is 0.68) and productive possession (RelCD/60 of 4.61). He sits a full 2 points higher in CF% (47), and has a relative WOWY spread of only -2% rather than -5%, when compared with Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart. We saw at the end of last season how composed Oesterle looked in his first passes and zone exits, and at least to my eyes, he never really looked out of his element in whatever situation in which TMac placed him.

Where does this leave Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart? Nursey I’d like to see have a full season or two unencumbered by NHL duties in the A, bulking up his tall frame, playing tough minutes, and refining the specifics of his game. He needs to decide just what kind of a defenceman he’s going to be. We saw him last season toy around with a quick, attacking defensive style, taking it upon himself to carry pucks deep and try to create offence. We saw him go the goon route and pretty convincingly beat the shit out of a few unfortunate opposition tough guys. Can he be all of it? Man, I hope so! He’s got all the tools and seemingly all the drive and desire in the world to do it. But he’s never going to be able to get there if he’s being used up with ridiculous minutes and being put in situations no reasonable first-or-second-year d-man really should be.

As for Griffin, I don’t even know, guys. He’s just… not very good… at the hockeys. Maybe he has big potential, maybe he doesn’t. But I’d rather see the Oilers organization focus their growth and development efforts into their young guns like Davidson, Oesterle, Nurse, and Bear who have at least shown flashes of brilliance in some category or another, rather than a guy who we only ever hear about having potential.

Pick up a 16-bit Larsson today!!

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, NHL, Walter Foddis

Eberle’s Back-checking Problem? The Importance of Objective (Unbiased) Analysis

2 Comments

If we watch 0:19 to 0:35 of this video clip, we’ll see Eberle seemingly give up on a back-check, which leads to Calgary’s first (short-handed) goal.

Edmonton vs Calgary Recap

After the turnover, Eberle was hustling hard until he believed Oesterle had taken control of the puck, then slowed down with the assumption that play was going to turn around. It’s a split-second decision. His willingness to persist on the back-check, even if it puts him out of position for a quick transition, is what he didn’t show. Is this a pattern? Does he routinely give up on back-checks because of an apparent offense-first mentality? I don’t know.

Other questions: Is Eberle simply a poor reader of plays from the defensive side of things? Is it a lack of effort and/or persistence issue? Can these things be learned, or is Eberle too inflexible in not learning them? We all know if that we don’t practice something regularly, it doesn’t become automatic in a game situation. Is Eberle not practicing hard backchecking? Is more prone to transitioning to offense “too early”? Tonnes of questions and you need a lot of video data, let’s say a 20-game sample (1 in 4 games, for e.g.,) to be clear on what’s going on.

We need to be careful of bias and sample size. In this case, recency bias and a sample size of one! To make radical roster-altering decisions on these irrational bases is asking for trouble. We need to look at a player’s body of work over a season. Are the problem areas–patterns that have been meticulously tracked each game–consistent? That is, is the player repeating the same problem despite coaching and video feedback? If so, why is that? The “why” is the key. The why will tell us whether it’s time to trade the player, or if the problems (clearly defined and persistent over time), can be fixed.

David Staples of the Edmonton Journal does analysis along these lines by tracking contributions to Grade A scoring chances, as well as mistakes on Grade A scoring chances against. According to Staples’ tracking, Eberle’s mistakes measure is on the lower side, relative to the other Oilers’ forwards.

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/was-kelly-hrudeys-slam-on-jordan-eberle-fair

Outside of video-tracked data, like that of Staples’s, we don’t have reliable measures of a player’s defensive abilities, but we a few have rough ones. One of them is Shot Attempts Against Relative-to-Teammates. This metric tells us, relative to his teammates, how many more, or fewer, shot attempts occur while the player is on the ice. From 2013-16 (3 seasons), Eberle’s ranking on this measure relative to the Oilers’ other forwards is 8th (+.78) out of 14 forwards. In other words, this suggests Eberle is a middling defensive forward relative to his teammates. Half the Oilers’ forwards are better and half are worse.

As fans, we watch only what the cameras show us. We don’t fixate on a single player and watch his every move. Because of that, I don’t have the knowledge or confidence to answer the questions I posed above. One failed back-check may suggest a pattern; a pattern that needs to be checked with thorough analysis. Or it may be simply a mental error that the player rarely makes. In this case, it turns out to be a goal and an opportunity for Kelly Hrudey (on Hockey Night in Canada) to rant about Eberle’s failure as a complete hockey player.

As always, I welcome your feedback.

Walter

Kris Hansen

BLH Edmonton Oilers Weekly Recap March 6th-12th

This week we saw the Oilers go 2-2-0 with good games against the Jets and Wild on Sunday and Thursday respectively and two stinkers on Tuesday against the Sharks and one last night against the Coyotes (those damn Yotes have our number).

Hey, one bright side: They have won five of their last eight games. There have been improvement, but these injuries are too tough to overcome.

The Edmonton Oilers Three Stars.

Not going to lie, when you get shutout twice, you’re going to be reaching for some stars here. There’s no McDavid. No Hall. No Eberle. None of those guys make an appearance.

Buckle up, it’s not a great list this week:

3. Lauri Korpikoski: Urg. See?!? It’s been so mediocre that Lauri Korpikoski opens up the three stars. He had two goals in both wins. Korpi had some power play time against Arizona and was partly responsible for the Power Play being a failure. He was lousy possession wise when playing with McDavid, but somehow he had two goals so he gets a star.

I know guys. I know.

2. Cam Talbot: Talbot was the First Star of the week last week by the NHL (boy I looked great not listing him there didn’t I!) and this week he had an up down week. Good news: In the two wins, he had a combined 0.971 save percentage. The bad news: in the two losses he had a combined 0.863 save percentage. The total was a 0.917 Save percentage which isn’t bad. He’s been great this season. He’s the real MVP of the team.

2. Jordan Oesterle: He only played against Minnesota and Arizona and had no points but man, does he look good out there. There’s a little bit of hype with some people comparing to Brandon Davidson (oh, he got injured on Sunday and is done for the year most likely). Against Arizona he played a game high 25:27….and was not a minus on the night. He doesn’t look out of place, but it’s a shame how log jammed the Oilers are on the Left Side. I think he could be trade bait and I hope not.

Edmonton Oilers News and Injuries

Hey, remember how people said injuries were a lame excuse? Well the Oilers lost more players to injury including Brandon Davidson on Sunday against Winnipeg and Adam Pardy on….I honestly don’t know. Pardy is out week to week while Davidson’s injury looks horrible.  So let’s list the Oilers who have been hurt at one point this year:

Jordan Eberle, Connor McDavid, Nail Yakupov, Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Benoit Pouliot, Matt Hendricks, Eric Gryba, Andrew Ference, Brandon Davidson and Adam Pardy.

 

The Oilers lost their entire second line at one point. Yes, I would have loved to see this team with a somewhat healthy line up all at once.

For a longer read, Woodguy55 over at BecauseOilers.blogspot.com has a post about the search of the vaunted Oilers Right handed defenseman.  If you enjoy fancy stats, Woodguy55 is absolutely beautiful at this.

Lowetide had his Sail on list, and I agree with it: there’s going to be some painful names that will be leaving us soon.

I recently completed my Edmonton Oilers All Time Roster wrapping up with Centres. 

The Oilers signed Jere Sallinen. 

Around the NHL

The Oilers are third in man games lost, but first in quality of players lost. 

Sportsnet is saying it’s a two horse race between Connor McDavid and Chicago’s Artemi Panarin 

Auston Matthews played his last game in Zurich as his team was eliminated in four and Marc Crawford is hoping to get an NHL job soon. 

An always must read: Elliote Friedman’s 30 thoughts. 

Yahoo! is now streaming 4 NHL games a week for free. 

Highlights

Top Moments of March 11th

 

PK Subban suffered a scary neck injury where he left the game on a stretcher. Thankfully he is out of the hospital.

 

McDavid scored the game winner against Minnesota

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yC1vcoFlIiE

 

The Week Ahead

Three Home games this week, with the Oilers playing every second game for the remainder of the month.

Monday is against Nashville, Wednesday against St Louis and Friday against a mediocre Canucks team.

That’s the week that was, follow me on Twitter and have a great week!

Corey Mitchell, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Prospects

Prospect Profile: Barons to Condors

Part 6 of my summer series, Prospect Profile, is going to look at a group of players who are poised to be big parts of the Oilers farm system, and overall depth this coming season.

It’s going to be an exciting year as far as the farm system is concerned. Over the summer, the Oilers have transitioned their AHL affiliate from the new defunct Oklahoma City Barons, to the Bakersfield Condors, formerly of the ECHL. Along with membership in the AHL, the Condors also find themselves as inaugural members of the newly christened Pacific Division, beginning an exciting chapter for both the Oilers and the Condors franchises. And the Condors look to be a prominent force in the division, with many players returning from those successful OKC teams, as well as maybe a few exciting additions, depending on how training camp plays out this September.

 

Kale Kessy

The unfortunate thing for Kale Kessy is that he will forever be known as the player that came the other way in the Tobias Rieder trade. And that’s really unfair for him. Yes, Rieder had some offensive flashes with the Arizona Coyotes last season, but contrary to popular belief, he was never really a top prospect for the Oilers. That fact was proven when they traded him to bring in Kessy in 2013. What Kessy brings to the Oilers is a player that can step in on the 3rd or 4th line, who isn’t afraid to engage opponents. While he is in no way a heavy weight enforcer, if such a role even exists in hockey these days, he’s a more than capable middle weight fighter, who can hold his own against most.

Kessy has never had glamorous offensive stats. His best season to date came as an over ager with the Kamloops Blazers that saw him post 25 points in 31 games. But offense is not what Kessy brings to the organization. His best seasons as a pro came when he posted 6 points, a mark he reached twice, first in 2013-14 in 54 games with the OKC Barons, and again last season, although he did it in only 17 games before losing much of his season to injury.

This looks to be a proven ground sort of year for Kessy, as he’ll be looked upon as somewhat of a veteran in Bakersfield this season. Hopefully he can remain healthy, and improve upon his numbers. He has the chance to project into a decent depth player for the Oilers, if not a bottom six player at some point.

 

Jujhar Khaira

Jujhar Khaira has caught the attention of Oilers fans in recent years. My guess is that is mostly in part due to his play during his one and only year in junior, where he finished 16-27-43 in 54 games for the Everett Silvertips of the WHL, including some significant scoring streaks. Fans also see a big body that slots in up the middle of the lineup, which was something Oilers fans had coveted for many years prior to drafting both Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

Khaira is one of those interesting paths taken to pro hockey. After two years in the BCHL, where he scored 39-82-121 in 112 games, he joined Michigan Tech for one year of college hockey, before opting to head to the WHL and pursue a professional career. Obviously, with the editions of both Draisaitl and McDavid, Khaira finds himself pushed well down the depth chart. However, much like his former Everett teammate, defensive prospect Ben Betker, this could be a blessing in disguise. Much like defense, center is a position that the Oilers were traditionally lacking in, before adding some blue chip prospects to the fold. And in much the same way Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart have pushed Betker back, so too have Draisaitl and McDavid with Khaira, which affords both Khaira and the Oilers the luxury of not having to rush development. With this time now afforded, Khaira truly has a chance to become, in my mind, a very effective 3rd line center, who is strong on the puck, and able to chip in offensively.

 

Iiro Pakarinen

While I wouldn’t call last season a break out year for Iiro Pakarinen, it was a starting point to be sure. Pakarinen handled himself well in his 17 games with the Oilers last season, and endeared himself to the fans, which could be considered good or bad, as the fans been endeared to many players over the years, such as Linus Omark and Jesse Joenssu. Hopefully Pakarinen can buck the trend in this category.

Formerly a Florida Panthers draft pick, Pakarinen joined the Oilers as a free agent following five years in SM-liiga. During his time over seas, Pakarinen totaled 45-55-73 in 232 games, his best season coming in 2013-14 with HIFK Helsinki, where he scored 20 goals and 30 points in 60 games.

Putting up only one goal and 2 assists in the NHL, a bulk of Pakarinen’s workload came while with the Oklahoma City Barons, playing 39 games. In those 39 games, Pakarinen went 17-11-28, while carrying an impressive +17 rating. The Oilers will be looking for more of that this season in Bakersfield, where Pakarinen will be counted on as a veteran, as well as being on the list for call ups through out the season.

 

Brandon Davidson

Injuries last year presented lots of opportunity for bubble players in the Oilers organization. Brandon Davidson can be counted amongst that number. Drafted in 2010, Davidson bounced up and down between OKC and then ECHL affiliate, the Stockton Thunder in his first professional year. Davidson would stick with the AHL club the following year, and made his NHL debut last season, dressing for 12 games, and picking up his first NHL goal.

Following a consistent showing with the Regina Pats of the WHL, where he posted totals of 34, 52, and 49 points, Davidson has yet to find that same offensive consistency as a professional. So far, in his 149 AHL games, Davidson has only collected 28 points. It seems to only be a matter of time until Davidson adjusts to the AHL, as he was able to produce 12 points in 11 games with Stockton during his time there. This season could be a pivotal one for Davidson, but there may not be enough ice time in Bakersfield to go around, depending on how training camp shakes out, specifically with Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart, who will play big minutes if they are with the Condors.

While I have heard rumblings and opinions that Davidson should be considered for the 7th spot on the Oilers, he’s going to be better served to continue his development in the minors. It’s more than likely that Brad Hunt, who made big strides last year, is going to be the 7th defenseman this year. The big question is going to be whether Davidson is playing bottom three minutes in Bakersfield, or top three minutes with Norfolk of the ECHL.

 

Jordan Oesterle

As I’ve mentioned before, the Oilers went through an era where they signed a multitude of players out of college to address their depth. In 2014, Jordan Oesterle was added to that list. Following his third year at Western Michigan University, Oesterle joined the OKC Barons for a brief playoff run, and hasn’t looked back. Not only did he become a mainstay on the Barons blue line last year, going 8-17-25 in 65 games last year, as well as adding a goal and three assists in 10 playoff games.

Much like Brandon Davidson, last season saw Oesterle take advantage of a depleted blue line to make his NHL debut, playing in six games with the Oilers. During those six games, Oesterle registered his first NHL point. Oesterle is another player that is going to find it difficult to get the ice time he may need to develop if the Oilers feel both Nurse and Reinhart need to be in the AHL to start the year. While I have some doubts if he can become a fulltime NHL defenseman in any capacity, he’s going to be one of the go to guys if and when the Oilers need to call upon blue line depth.

 

Dillon Simpson

If the name sounds familiar, that’s because it should. The son of Oilers alum Craig Simpson, Dillon is looking to make a name for himself amongst the Oilers. Drafted in 2011 following an outstanding year with the AJHL Champion Spruce Grove Saints (12-29-41), Simpson elected to attend the University of North Dakota. During his four years with North Dakota, Simpson amassed a total of 75 points in his 156 games. He also helped the team to capture the WCHA Championship in 2011 and 2012, and made two appearances in the NCAA Frozen Four tournament.

Simpson made his pro debut last season with the OKC Barons, and acclimated himself to the team very well, playing in 71 games, going 3-14-17 in those games. Perhaps not the most impressive offensive numbers, but Simpsons game isn’t so one dimensional that he needs to have stat heavy seasons.

Again, how much and where Simpson plays this upcoming season is going to have a lot to do with what happens in training camp. By no means do I see Simpson sticking with the Oilers throughout camp. In fact, barring an outstanding showing, my guess is he goes down in the early rounds of cuts. It’s the later cuts, if any, that will dramatically affect Simpsons career, be it in the AHL with Bakersfield, or down in the ECHL. I would almost prefer Simpson getting a decent amount of ice time in the ECHL, but again, it’s going to depend on the Big Two of Nurse and Reinhart, and where the Oilers feel is the best fit for the development of their blue chip defensive prospects.