Category Archives: Michael Sifeldeen

Edmonton Oilers, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL

The Half-Season Report Card

So now that we have 41 games in the books, how has the Oilers’ season fared thus far? Some lists, as of this writing:

**BLH’s Note** – I was a bit slow (read as hungover) to get this post out before the Sens/Oilers game tonight but the gist of Mike’s post remains the same. Please enjoy! – BLH**

THE WEST


EVERYONE ELSE

As I type this, the Edmonton Oilers are the 2nd best team in the Pacific Division, and the 9th (NINTH) best team in the NHL. Holy crap. When was the last time the Oilers were in the top-third in the league at the halfway mark of a season? I’m not even going to look that stat up because I know how depressing and awful it will be.

Wheel, snipe, celly, boys. We are officially basement-dwellers no longer. (Speaking of snipes and cellys, congrats to Matt Benning on his first career NHL goal tonight! Always stoked to see a newbie get his first. Here’s hoping to a long future with Benning on the Oilers blueline.)


THE FACTS

Man, it’s been an emotional roller coaster of a season, hasn’t it? There’s something about being vaguely in playoff contention for most of a season make the highs feel really high, and the lows really low. There have been multiple points in the season where I’ve felt that we’ll never lose a game again, and just as many where it seems like we’ll never be able to squeak out a win.

There are consistency issues with this group, but, like this evening, they’re pulling it together and finding ways to win more often than not, and at this point in our team’s development, that’s a promising thing.

As we watch the Pacific play out, it’s seeming more and more likely that this is a good year for us to see some postseason play for the first time in over a decade, and if we can keep this general pace up through the second half of the season (which features a much more Oilers-friendly travel and game schedule), I don’t see why we can’t make it happen with this group, especially as some usual Pacific heavyweights struggle.

We need to take advantage of the situation we’ve been presented with and keep the pressure going into February and through April.


MY THOUGHTS

  • McDavid is McDavid, that much goes without saying. He’s perfect and I love him.
  • Draisaitl is a horse game in and game out, and I won’t even flinch if Pete gives him $6M this offseason.
  • Larsson is a big, mean, minute-eating machine and hasn’t made me miss Taylor Hall once since the season began.
  • Kris Russell — despite the continued and relentless naysaying from nerds on Twitter with their noses in stat sheets — has been good.
  • Lucic I’m undecided on; I think he needs this season to get up to speed with the way he’s going to have to play going forward if he’s going to be on McDavid’s wing in the future.
  • Thankfully, Patrick Maroon just continues to be a goddamn beauty and make up for Looch’s shortcomings so far this season. (And congrats to him on his first hatty a couple nights ago!) I’d be happy protecting Maroon for expansion and exposing Davidson with the way he and Benning have been playing, and in my little fantasy land where everything is happy and people get what they deserve, Maroon and Pouliot’s contracts would be straight swapped.
  • Nuge has been clutch in a few key situations in the last month or so, but I think both he and Ebs need to get their lives together a little bit and start producing at-or-near where they were in seasons past. (Uh, hello, have these guys forgotten that they were our top line guys for like four years? They aren’t even really producing at a solid second line pace through 41 this season.)
  • Puljujarvi needs to go to the AHL immediately and start playing big minutes. He needs seasoning and we are truly treating him even worse than we did Draistail in 2013. I’m quite concerned with how Chiarelli and McLellan are utilizing him, and why he hasn’t been sent down as of like last month is a mystery to me. We have a Finn in Bakersfield who can befriend the guy and help him out if it’s a language-barrier thing. I just want that big pizza-eating goof to turn into the stud we know he can be. :]
  • Caggiula is great! (I told you guys he would be.) Sort of reminds me of an early-2010s Eberle back when he gave a shit, with regard to his agility and general skill in tight situations with the puck. He’s sneaky, unusually strong on the puck for a little guy, and has some pretty silky mitts. Give this kid another season or two of solid third line minutes and some PP time and I don’t see why he doesn’t become a 60-point scorer by his mid-20s.
  • You’ll recall, dear BLH readers, I also predicted Mark Letestu as a regular in the lineup because of his good attitude and solid 3/4 line stats. The only thing I missed was neglecting to type his full name: Mark “Shootout and Overtime Specialist” Letestu.

THE GRADE

B+

We’ve got a good thing going here, boys. Keep it up.

Please.

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Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL

The Case *For* Kris Russell

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There has been a lot of noise made in the last couple days in the Oilogosphere about Kris Russell and how he’s literally the worst hockey player to ever hockey. Many of the advanced stats purveyors just have a field day when it comes to Russell and his (real or perceived) deficiencies, mostly centering around his basement-dweller numbers in categories like Corsi- and Fenwick-For. They really, truly fail to understand what professional hockey general managers see in the guy. The fact that his on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage is historically through-the-roof and currently 2nd amongst Oilers d-men (along with his PDO, too), are often brushed aside as “luck” or “flukey.”

Boy oh boy, isn’t there a word for selectively applying the statistics that help reinforce your preconceived notions and support your argument, while simultaneously ignoring or underplaying the ones that work against you?

From what I can tell, from watching almost every one of the Oilers’ 25 games so far this season, Kris Russell is an enigma that defies conventional stat-tracking. Watching him, seeing his play, I just cannot understand how this guy keeps getting such shade thrown on him by the pundits. He’s like the hockey player equivalent of that kid in your high school class who shows up looking sloppy and unkempt and gets sneered about by his teachers who don’t expect anything from him, but keeps getting good marks on his tests and constantly outperforms his perceived shortcomings. The things that Russell does well aren’t very easy to measure in Corsi derivatives, and the things he isn’t strong at are hyper-inflated by those very same metrics.

But the sheer arrogance of some of these writers who, I fear, legitimately feel their armchair analysis is superior to that of a Stanley Cup winning general manager and the teams and teams of people he surrounds himself with is astounding. In fact, Chiarelli himself noted when questioned about his initial pickup of Russell that they knew all about the reviews and numbers on him. And according to the internal, unconventional statistics the Oilers have access to (read: non-Corsi-derivative), Russell is currently sitting 2nd in the NHL amongst all defenders in clean offensive and neutral zone entries. And in the pressure system the Oilers employ, this type of skillset is immeasurably valuable.

You know how you can see how valuable it is? By watching Russell play hockey for the Edmonton Oilers. By seeing how he gels with Sekera, and how relatively smoothly and quickly he’s picked up playing on his off-side. (A feat many of the naysayers are unwilling to acknowledge the difficulty of.) Perhaps listening to Sekera himself –who praised Russell from Day 1 saying how “easy” he makes his life — would be another good place to start. Maybe acknowledging the fact that, while yes, an NHL-high number of blocked shots might indicate a propensity for having a history of being stuck in the defensive zone too long, it’s also an indicator of a warrior mentality – someone who is routinely willing to sacrifice his body as a last-ditch effort to stop a scoring opportunity and according to Woodguy, blocked shots cut down on dangerous fenwick. It’s also just simply a fact that shots against are going to happen, and when they do, it sure must be nice for the rest of the Oilers knowing they have a guy who is absolutely going to jump in front of them and take the punishment they entail. It must be nice finally having a couple veteran defenders on our second pairing with very recent playoff experience who can chew up minutes and help guide the next generation in their development. It must be nice having a quick-skating D-man who stays poised in PK situations and never really looks flustered or panicked.

Listen, I was as anti-Russell as the next guy when we first signed him. I saw all the stats and heard all the doomsday predictions that came along with them. And I’m a big fan of fancystats! I use them poorly and with an air of superiority all the time! But here are the objective, observable facts: we’re an above-.500 hockey team that is pretty seriously in the playoff conversation at the quarter-mark of the season, which has been so obviously out of the question by this time during the Decade of Darkness(TM), it’s not something we should understate the importance of. If you don’t think Russell can be said to be partially responsible for that, you haven’t been paying attention. You haven’t been watching him play. If we sign him for another 3 or 4 years at some value <$4.5M/per, I take that deal every day, and I think Peter Chiarelli does, too. And he’s smarter than us and gets paid far more handsomely than us to make that call.

Come fight me on Twitter @sife

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Edmonton Oilers, Edmonton Oilers Post Game Report, Michael Sifeldeen

Post-Game Report: Oilers vs Calgary (10/12/2016)

Game result: Oilers 7-4 Calgary

Apparently it was “80s Night” over at Rogers Place for our first ever NHL game at the new barn. What a racket! 11 goals! What era even is this? So there were a whole lot of things to like about this game, and some head-scratchers. Let’s go through them in point-form because it’s too late to worry about complete sentences:

Things that were awesome:
– Chiefly, Captain Connor showing up for 2G-1A-3P in his first game of the year is a pretty damn good look at what’s to come for his sophomore season. CANNOT wait to see it unfold
– Maroon getting the first goal in Rogers Place was really cool. He was so stoked on it. Love this guy
– Kris Russell was really good. Guys. Can someone direct me to the nearest bakery serving humble pie? I was shitting on this guy as much as the rest of them because of how awful he is from a fancystats point of view, but he really shone tonight with 2 assists and several solid defensive plays that directly saved very likely Calgary goals. (In case you weren’t confused enough yet, his all-situations Corsi For on the night was 41.67%, and 5v5 was 48.28%. Apparently he is cursed on paper.)
– Larsson looked pretty good, too. Poised. Doesn’t panic. Klef needs to settle in a bit still, I think, but when he does, these two will be mint together
– Here are some more misleading stats since we’re on it: Larsson had a 34.38% all-situations Corsi For on the night, but could you tell by watching? I sure couldn’t. Could’ve been because he played 47% of his TOI against the Gaudreau/Monahan line, as per WheatNOil on Twitter (https://t.co/GqjIhEuD8r). He also started 75% of his shifts in the defensive zone. Leaning on him heavy already, I like it
– Poolparty got his 1st NHL goal on a beauty snipe under Elliott’s wide-open right arm. That’s nice. :] He also lead the team with a ridiculous 76.19% Corsi For rating in all situations, which came back down to earth a little bit at 5v5 with 58.33%, but still really good for the rookie’s first game in the bigs
– Brandon Davidson single-handedly saved, at least from what I saw, 3 sure Calgary goals. Some went off a well-positioned skate, some off his stick, some from getting his body in the way of a player in front of the net. BDavey is just so good and so solid, and that leads me into the other part of the night…

Things that sucked a little:

– So Tkachuk Jr is kind of a shithead, hey? He straight up slew-footed BDavey and he never returned for the 3rd. Still awaiting word on his condition/timeline for return. Fingers crossed it was precautionary. This kid just has no luck
– The Oilers allowed two pretty sloppy short-handed goals there in the 2nd, in what was just a classic #HereComeTheOilers 2nd period. I’d like to know the statistical metric that describes how we’re just so bad in the middle of games when we can start and end so strong
– Talbot was not the sharpest. He did stop 37 shots, but let 4 in for a .902 SV% in his first start of 2016-17. I mean, it’s no Brian Elliott .778 SV%, but we know he can be better. I chalk this up mostly to opening night/new building/don’t screw up this game of all game jitters
– Lucic played just okay. He sure made his presence felt early on when the Calgary goon squad figured they could throw McDavid around without repercussion, so that was good of him. But he gave up a really bad 2-on-1 opportunity and actually accidentally knocked one of those Calgary shorties in. So it’s just a matter of finesse at this point for him, I think. I hope.

Anyway. Numbers and analysis aside, we won 7-4 and start the year on a good note, and almost as importantly, Calgary starts the year on a lame note and that feels just as good if I’m honest.

Edmonton Oilers, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL, Prospects

Deep In The (Oil)Well

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We were having a discussion the other day in the BLH chat group, analyzing the sorry performance our boys put in against the Jets the other night and trying to figure out what it might mean come the start of the regular season. Yes, I know it’s preseason. We all know it’s preseason. But preseason is a great time to sit back see how the guys developed over the summer, evaluate line combos, and especially to see who amongst the fresh blood is really busting their ass every shift to make the show come October 14th.

We’re seeing that pretty consistently out of Caggiula, which a certain BLH writer may or may not have predicted back in July… I’m also seeing that fight in Versteeg; I think he’ll end up with a contract for at least a season, and I hope he can infuse some of his multiple-Stanley-Cup-winning magic vibes into this squad. Looch is still big and slow but he’ll get there. Even if he can’t quite keep up with McDavid yet and realize just how little work he actually has to do to rack up points just being on the ice with Him, he’ll get there, and his presence just makes me feel better knowing that the potential goons on opposing teams this season will absolutely be thinking twice before trying anything funny. Puljujarvi is looking okay, he certainly killed it in the junior games a couple weeks ago, but I don’t think his North American hockey IQ (or stamina) is quite there just yet, and he could definitely benefit from a few months at least in the A.

But I mean, other than that, it’s kind of business as usual with these guys, isn’t it? Kind of listless, a little soft, definitely on the razor’s edge of being a complete disaster dumpster fire of a season again should one of our big guys go down long-term, no? I can’t even begin to imagine what losing someone early in the season like Klef, or Ebs, or RNH, or god forbid, He Whose Collarbone Shall Not Be Named would do to this team. Which really brings us to the heart of the issue facing this Oilers team right now: Depth.

#prayforklefsfoot

This Oilers team, with the amount of seriously amazing skill it has up front, absolutely does not have the depth to be a serious contender this season if everyone isn’t running at 100% healthy for the vast majority of the season. Think about it this way: if Klef goes down, our top LHD is back to being Andre Sekera. If Larsson goes down, our top RHD is back to being Mark Fayne. (Now, I’d like to think BDavey could pick up that slack and run with it like he had to last season, but still, the point stands.) If Connor or Nuge or Leon suffers an injury, where are the classic “depth guys” to step in and at least attempt to fill that huge void? In Bakersfield? Doubtful. You know where they are? In Chicago, or Pittsburgh, or Los Angeles, even Florida and Nashville now to an extent. They’re being drafted and traded for and developed specifically by these teams to fill key depth roles with the understanding that top-12 forwards and top-6 defencemen occasionally need to be pushed into non-ideal minutes and situations. Do you picture Anton Lander or Griffin Reinhart or Iiro Pakarinen in your mind when you think of those situations? Because that’s what we’ve got.

You know who this team reminds me of the last few years? The late-90s-to-mid-2000s Blackhawks, just before they got Toews in 2006 and Kane in 2007. Train wrecks, basically. But remember, even when they got Captain Serious and Kaner, it still took them a couple years to become a serious playoff team. How did they do this? Why has Chicago won 3 of the last 7 Stanley Cups? Well it could be because they have two or three star players carrying the team. That would be an easy assumption to make; it’s been the case for some Stanley Cup winning teams throughout the years. Hell, it’s been the modus operandi of the Edmonton Oilers for the last decade. Draft a couple studs and screw the rest of the lineup, people come for the stars, and they’re who will get us to the cup. Right?

Except that’s not how the NHL works anymore. The Blackhawks have won 3 cups in 7 years because Niklas Hjalmarsson is a third pairing defender on that team. They have or have had the Andrew Ladds, the Marian Hossas, the Kris Versteegs, the Brandon Saads, and the Andrew Shaws to bolster their lineups and step up to fill the holes when need be. They aren’t the guys necessarily putting up 65+ point seasons ever year, but they are solid and reliable and tough, and teams stocked up in those particular skill departments are the teams who consistently string together winning seasons and ultimately end up wining championships.

As indescribably amazing as Connor McDavid is, he can’t win us a Stanley Cup on his own. As defensively sound as Adam Larsson is, he isn’t going to swing our goal differential into the positives on his own. As big and strong as Milan Lucic is, he isn’t going to be able to fight off the opposition on his own without the support of the third- and fourth-liners who we need to bring in to make this a playoff team for years to come. If we make the playoffs this season, suffice it to say that I will be surprised. We’re flush with skill guys, now we need to focus on the d-word. The Edmonton Oilers need to start trading for and drafting and developing depth players, and fast, before the p-word starts entering our vernacular in a serious way.

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Breaking News, Edmonton Oilers, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL

Hallsy Still Salty

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One podcast and two of my last three articles have been about Taylor Hall in some way. Everyone knows by now I was never the biggest fan of him or his play, and I’d love to stop writing about the guy, but he just can’t stop inserting himself into the Edmonton media and inviting commentary.

Enter David Staples and his latest hot take: reporting on some news from NJ.com and the Fire & Ice hockey blog about Hall’s latest comments on his inability to get over and move forward from his trade to New Jersey, David says,

“Hall’s resentment… still isn’t going away, nor is the very real and clearly bitter resentment that many of his biggest fans in Edmonton feel about the trade. They’re not even close to being over it and won’t be, I suspect, until the day Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli is fired.”

Ok. Well, that sentiment may be present in his fans, but I’d say it’s far and away not, in fact, the sentiment of many, many more Oilers fans who can understand and appreciate nuance in hockey trades and the extracurricular factors that sometimes surround them.

Regardless, Edmonton Oilers fans aren’t who Taylor Hall needs to be concerning himself with now. It’s New Jersey Devils fans. And frankly, if I were a Devils fan, I’d be pretty pissed off at Hall by this point, since all he can seem to talk about his how bummed he is to have been traded.

“But Mike, it isn’t his fault. He keeps getting asked these questions. It’s the media’s fault for beating a dead horse.”

Who cares? The media asks athletes all sorts of questions all the time, and mostly the answers they get back are lame and vague and platitudinous. But Hall has relished every opportunity that has come his way since July to wax poetic about his hurt feelings and the ill will still left in him.

Listen, I understand the emotional turmoil that can result from a sudden move and uprooting of a life. I’m a big proponent of talking through feelings and getting to root causes and doing proper psychological healing. But Hall needs to do that on his own time, in the proper setting. What he needs to be doing when the media comes to his door and fishes for headlines is start spouting the canned PR nonsense we all know and love from hockey players. (“Well, we gotta just start putting the puck in their net and keeping it outta ours, y’know?”) Because every time he bitches and moans about how hard-done-by he was by the Oilers brass, he implicitly complains about his new home and team in New Jersey, and it’s not a good look.

Taylor, I feel for you, buddy. This has been a weird summer. But to David Staples and Taylor Hall, you (Hall) had 6 years to do something with this team and city which handed you the keys, and nothing happened. This was a move we needed to make for the future of our hockey team. And whether you can rationalize it right now or not, you needed this, too.

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