Tag Archives: Defence

The Case *For* Kris Russell

There has been a lot of noise made in the last couple days in the Oilogosphere about Kris Russell and how he’s literally the worst hockey player to ever hockey. Many of the advanced stats purveyors just have a field day when it comes to Russell and his (real or perceived) deficiencies, mostly centering around his basement-dweller numbers in categories like Corsi- and Fenwick-For. They really, truly fail to understand what professional hockey general managers see in the guy. The fact that his on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage is historically through-the-roof and currently 2nd amongst Oilers d-men (along with his PDO, too), are often brushed aside as “luck” or “flukey.”

Boy oh boy, isn’t there a word for selectively applying the statistics that help reinforce your preconceived notions and support your argument, while simultaneously ignoring or underplaying the ones that work against you?

From what I can tell, from watching almost every one of the Oilers’ 25 games so far this season, Kris Russell is an enigma that defies conventional stat-tracking. Watching him, seeing his play, I just cannot understand how this guy keeps getting such shade thrown on him by the pundits. He’s like the hockey player equivalent of that kid in your high school class who shows up looking sloppy and unkempt and gets sneered about by his teachers who don’t expect anything from him, but keeps getting good marks on his tests and constantly outperforms his perceived shortcomings. The things that Russell does well aren’t very easy to measure in Corsi derivatives, and the things he isn’t strong at are hyper-inflated by those very same metrics.

But the sheer arrogance of some of these writers who, I fear, legitimately feel their armchair analysis is superior to that of a Stanley Cup winning general manager and the teams and teams of people he surrounds himself with is astounding. In fact, Chiarelli himself noted when questioned about his initial pickup of Russell that they knew all about the reviews and numbers on him. And according to the internal, unconventional statistics the Oilers have access to (read: non-Corsi-derivative), Russell is currently sitting 2nd in the NHL amongst all defenders in clean offensive and neutral zone entries. And in the pressure system the Oilers employ, this type of skillset is immeasurably valuable.

You know how you can see how valuable it is? By watching Russell play hockey for the Edmonton Oilers. By seeing how he gels with Sekera, and how relatively smoothly and quickly he’s picked up playing on his off-side. (A feat many of the naysayers are unwilling to acknowledge the difficulty of.) Perhaps listening to Sekera himself –who praised Russell from Day 1 saying how “easy” he makes his life — would be another good place to start. Maybe acknowledging the fact that, while yes, an NHL-high number of blocked shots might indicate a propensity for having a history of being stuck in the defensive zone too long, it’s also an indicator of a warrior mentality – someone who is routinely willing to sacrifice his body as a last-ditch effort to stop a scoring opportunity and according to Woodguy, blocked shots cut down on dangerous fenwick. It’s also just simply a fact that shots against are going to happen, and when they do, it sure must be nice for the rest of the Oilers knowing they have a guy who is absolutely going to jump in front of them and take the punishment they entail. It must be nice finally having a couple veteran defenders on our second pairing with very recent playoff experience who can chew up minutes and help guide the next generation in their development. It must be nice having a quick-skating D-man who stays poised in PK situations and never really looks flustered or panicked.

Listen, I was as anti-Russell as the next guy when we first signed him. I saw all the stats and heard all the doomsday predictions that came along with them. And I’m a big fan of fancystats! I use them poorly and with an air of superiority all the time! But here are the objective, observable facts: we’re an above-.500 hockey team that is pretty seriously in the playoff conversation at the quarter-mark of the season, which has been so obviously out of the question by this time during the Decade of Darkness(TM), it’s not something we should understate the importance of. If you don’t think Russell can be said to be partially responsible for that, you haven’t been paying attention. You haven’t been watching him play. If we sign him for another 3 or 4 years at some value <$4.5M/per, I take that deal every day, and I think Peter Chiarelli does, too. And he’s smarter than us and gets paid far more handsomely than us to make that call.

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The Oilers’ 2016-17 Bottom Pairing: The Last Line of Defence

I know what you’re thinking: the Oilers blogosphere definitely needs another article about our defensive situation. But mostly, those articles have been focused on the addition of our new Swedish stud (yes, I’m calling him a stud already) Adam Larsson, and how the “upper echelons” of the d-core will look going forward. I don’t think there’s too much debate left about what our top-2 looks like next season. Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson should have no problem anchoring our back-end for many years to come. (Provided they both stay healthy, of course. #PrayForKlefbomsFoot.)

Perhaps even the top-4 isn’t too hard to predict, either. Andrej Sekera’s numbers proved last season that he’s a perfectly serviceable top-4 d-man who, through necessity, was pushed into a top-2 role. He also had a penchant for scoring cool O-ver-TIIIIIIME winners. His individual production wasn’t anything to write home about in general, really, but his shot generation and productive possession was fantastic (RelCF/60: 3.95, and RelCD/60: 3.36 respectively). So that’s the left side shored up. As far as the right side muddle pair goes, there are about 3.625 million reasons why one would reasonably expect Mark Fayne to live there. According to the numbers, though, I firmly expect Brandon Davidson to be the guy.

Can you see any category in which Mark Fayne is more clearly a top-4 defenceman than Brandon Davidson? I’m squinting real hard and I just can’t do it. In fact, the harder I look, the more I see Davidson hitting top-pairing status sooner rather than later if his trajectory even kind of holds course.

So who does that leave us with for the bottom pair? Fayne, obviously, unfortunately. I don’t really like the guy, and I think he’s unforgivingly overpaid, but he’s not useless, and I’m sure I’ll end up eating my words once he starts only taking up bottom-pairing minutes. He’ll probably pull a Jultz and end up playing half-decently. (This just in: defencemen look better with limited minutes and when playing within their skill role, not being force-fed minutes because of injuries and wishful thinking. More at 12.) Fayne won’t be putting up big numbers; he’s a shutdown guy through and through. But his shot suppression is workable at a RelCA/60 of -0.73, and he has the years of experience to know basically where he should be most of the time.

And for the left side? I’m throwing my lot in with Jordan Oesterle. There’s a common school of thought in creating defensive pairings that the limitations of particular defenders should compliment each other. In this case, Oesterle’s offence shows incredible promise (with admittedly a smallish sample size) in individual production (his PP/60 is 0.68) and productive possession (RelCD/60 of 4.61). He sits a full 2 points higher in CF% (47), and has a relative WOWY spread of only -2% rather than -5%, when compared with Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart. We saw at the end of last season how composed Oesterle looked in his first passes and zone exits, and at least to my eyes, he never really looked out of his element in whatever situation in which TMac placed him.

Where does this leave Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart? Nursey I’d like to see have a full season or two unencumbered by NHL duties in the A, bulking up his tall frame, playing tough minutes, and refining the specifics of his game. He needs to decide just what kind of a defenceman he’s going to be. We saw him last season toy around with a quick, attacking defensive style, taking it upon himself to carry pucks deep and try to create offence. We saw him go the goon route and pretty convincingly beat the shit out of a few unfortunate opposition tough guys. Can he be all of it? Man, I hope so! He’s got all the tools and seemingly all the drive and desire in the world to do it. But he’s never going to be able to get there if he’s being used up with ridiculous minutes and being put in situations no reasonable first-or-second-year d-man really should be.

As for Griffin, I don’t even know, guys. He’s just… not very good… at the hockeys. Maybe he has big potential, maybe he doesn’t. But I’d rather see the Oilers organization focus their growth and development efforts into their young guns like Davidson, Oesterle, Nurse, and Bear who have at least shown flashes of brilliance in some category or another, rather than a guy who we only ever hear about having potential.

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Putting Out An Oilers Tire Fire

The season is young, and the sample size is small but it is apparent that the tire fire known as the Edmonton Oilers defence needs to get put out. Before we go any further, let’s take a look at some numbers surrounding the Oilers defence, and how it compares to the rest of the league this season:

  • High Danger Scoring Chances Against in all situations – 144 – 27th in the NHL
  • High Danger Scoring Chances +/- in all situations – -38 – 28th in the NHL
  • Scoring Chances Against per 60- 27.3 – 21st in the NHL
  • On-Ice sv% – 89.3% – 25th in the NHL
  • Goals Against – 46 – 28th in the NHL
  • Goals Against per 60 – 3.2 – 27th in the NHL

What these numbers show is that in our defensive zone we are allowing teams to score on shots that are taken from the slot, and the low slot. Often, these are due to defensive zone breakdowns. Not only that, none of these are numbers that are suddenly shockers to Oilers fans. Our glaring defensive mistakes have cost this team for years.

We saw it happen again last week against the Habs where defencemen kept getting caught out of position on goals:

Goal one: Rookie Darnell Nurse and “basically still a rookie” Oscar Klefbom both leave the man in front of the net and Gallagher has an easy opportunity to put the Habs up 1-0. PK Subban’s shot from the point is also able to make it’s way through two defencemen.

Goal two is a special one. Gryba is in the corner laying the body on Markov as he made a easy pass across the ice for Galchenyuk to redirect in. Ference is caught just standing around the faceoff dot looking lazy, and Lander fails to look over his back shoulder before the pass is made.

Unfortunatley, this is just from one game. These glaring mistakes are happening game in and game out and I’m not sure how much longer the team can continue to carry a mediocre defence.

Aah yes, again we come back to the Oilers having this tendency to trade away defencemen who are still developing for scraps. Only two defencemen developed since 1984? That’s just plain bad.

MAKING A MOVE

BLH writer Lindsay Ryall wrote an excellent piece looking at trading for Taylor Hall’s old OHL teammate and current Nashville Predator Ryan Ellis. At the beginning of the summer I explored the possibility of trading for Seth Jones, a move I still would love to see the Oilers make.

The discussion is rampant, and it no longer can be refuted that the Oilers need help. This season will soon be found wasted like years past if we are unable to defend and help out Cam Talbot and Anders Nilsson. The thing that we keep coming back to is “well, what’s out there?” and that’s the problem that is being run into. Even last year, we saw the Islanders make deals for Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy at the beginning of the season so it isn’t out of the realm of possibility to see it happen again.

In the offseason, there were rumours about Brent Seabrook being a trade target for the Oilers but that didn’t quite work out after he received an eight year, $55-million contract extension.

The truth is that I don’t really know if I can sit through another whole season of poor defensive play, especially considering the fact that this Edmonton Oilers offense has been more potent than we have seen in the past few years.

Connor McDavid got named NHL’s Rookie of the Month for October after scoring five goals and seven assists through twelve games, which was well deserved. Taylor Hall was named third star of the week after scoring two goals and five assists in last week’s three games.

I have a feeling that it won’t be the first of hearing about Hall and McDavid having strong seasons.

Sadly, I don’t know what can be done to fix this defence. Is there a Leddy or Boychuk deal that could be made? Because that is what this team really needs.