Tag Archives: Matt Dumba

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Is It Time To Move Another Big Name Oiler?

McLellan

The powerplay just doesn’t seem to be clicking and that’s not a new story for Oilers fans. We’ve run assistant coaches out of town for less but what usually starts the ball rolling is horrid special teams. I mean I’m all for asking Ralph Krueger or Todd Nelson to come back and sort this sh*t out but I’m fairly certain those bridges have been burned with the people responsible for putting fuel on those bridge burnings still working for the team.

Edmonton is 18th in the league for PP% with 16%. Which isn’t horrendous by any means, at least we’re not Calgary, they’re sitting dead last in the league with a 10% PP… Now that is atrocious! We’re closer than ever to being a playoff team, yet, the Oilers are on the verge of another 5-game losing streak that is partly due to their inability to capitalize with the man advantage.

My thinking is that maybe that PP really needs a shot in the arm and what is more expensive to acquire, a right-handed defenseman to QB the PP or a right-handed centre that could play the McDavid role with Oscar Klefbom on the point?

I suppose that depends on the player, right?

I mean, why are the Oilers continually running the PP through McDavid like they are? His choices are:

  • cross-ice pass to Ebs
  • to the point to Klefbom or Sekera
  • stickhandle through the slot and try himself
  • shoot through two penalty killers

Why (and they might be doing this with Ebs and Klefbom put on the 2nd PP unit yesterday) don’t they run the PP through Ebs and Klefbom? And if that brings success, find a 2nd pairing righty for the McDavid unit or alter the positioning of 97’s unit in order to make room for Puljujarvi’s 1-timer?

What we do know is that Eberle can’t shoot right now despite being the most active shooter on the team and in the top 5 of the NHL.

You know, Leon Draisaitl hit the post versus Toronto with a beauty of a 1-timer, why haven’t they tried working the puck over to him?…

Maybe the Oilers should start looking at that right-handed PP QB that Hall was supposed to bring in… Somebody like:

  • Sami Vatanen (ANH) – (2013-2016) 4.99 pts/60 on the PP.
  • Justin Faulk (CAR) – (2013-2016) 17.2 shots/60 on the PP + 2.07 goals/60 (2nd in NHL in both stats).
  • Matt Dumba (MIN) – (2016/17) 20.3 shots/60 on the PP (2nd in NHL).
  • *Inhales sharply and says with a hand over his mouth*…Dennis Wideman (CGY) – (2016/17) 6.17 pts/60 on the PP + 3rd in the NHL w/3.09 goals/60 on the PP.

I dunno guys, right now Nuge for Dumba is looking pretty tasty and that was a deal turned down (rightfully so at the time) at the draft. That cannon of his, his urgency to use it and his physical play could really fit in on a Todd McLellan/Peter Chiarelli team, no?

Now, I know that a majority of the game is played 5×5, so let’s check the four players corsi for % 5×5 (close) with 100 minutes TOI minimum and see where we land (league ranking in brackets)?

  • Vatanen (#70) 51.3%
  • Faulk (#48) 52.4%
  • Dumba (#97) 50%
  • Wideman (#170) 42.9%

Comparing that with the Oilers we’ve got:

1 – Adam Larsson (#22) – 54.7%
2- Oscar Klefbom (#25) – 54.4%
3 – Eric Gryba (#26) – 54.1%
4 – Darnell Nurse (#30) – 53.8%
5 – Matt Benning (#79) – 51.0%
6 – Andrej Sekera (#135) – 47.2%
7 – Kris Russell (#138) – 46.8%

Oilers on the PP this season (I had to reduce the minimum TOI to 1 minute to get more than 2 Oilers):

1 – Matt Benning (#40) – 14:35 TOI, 4.11 pts/60
2 – Andrej Sekera (#66) – 43:23 TOI, 2.77 pts/60
3 – Oscar Klefbom (#89) – 68.50 TOI, 1.74 pts/60
4 – Adam Larsson (#161) – 6:23 TOI, 0.00 pts/60
5 – Darnell Nurse (#166) – 1:22 TOI, 0.00 pts/60
6 – Kris Russell (#183) – 11:06 TOI, 0.00 pts/60

If we jack the minimum TOI up to 50, which I think is a decent variable at this point in the season, then Oscar Klefbom jumps to #41 in the NHL. And if we change the time frame from just this season to the previous four (including this one), Kris Russell is 48th in the NHL over that time with a points per 60 of 3.80 and Andrej Sekera (3.77) is right under him at 49th. But that’s it.

As for the four dmen I named above, what do you think their teams would be looking to acquire in exchange?

  • Matt Dumba – Last I heard the Wild were looking for scoring. Do the Oilers have anybody they could serve up without handcuffing themselves?
  • Justin Faulk – Some don’t like that his defense is going off the rails this season but Carolina would kill to get Nuge, wouldn’t they? But do they have someone to replace Faulk? We know that person isn’t Ryan Murphy. But hey, what about Ryan Murphy for Griffin Reinhart? Hehehe.
  • Sami Vatanen – The ducks are having an odd season so far. Their big guns aren’t firing on all cylinders, so I imagine scoring is something they’d be looking for as well given their ridiculously deep back-end. Last year Pouliot was rumored to be of interest but I can’t see that this year. And what would you deal to a division rival?
  • Dennis Wideman – I think he could be had for a Bobby Nick’s Burger.

I don’t really like the idea of moving a high-profile player just to “fix” the PP to be honest but what would you do? Would you sacrifice a Nuge, Eberle, Nurse, Klefbom or a Draisaitl to upgrade the Oilers PP?

Let me know in the comments below and thanks for reading!

Click the pic and grab a 16-bit McDavid tee!

 

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors

Wild Rumor

18 Comments

Every morning before I even get out of bed, I grab my iPad and open up my Feedly app to see what has happened in the world of hockey while I was asleep. Usually not a whole lot goes down but every now and then there’s something notable like a contract signing, a player getting in trouble with the law, or a trade rumour.

We’re going to talk about the trade rumour that surfaced on one blog called The Hockey Press but another blog called Puck Gone Wild (I dig the name) dedicated an entire post on it, to which I am going to talk about today.

So if you don’t want to head over to the blog, I’ll be quoting different parts of it below and commenting on it, otherwise head over and read it for yourself. The comments section is pretty funny coming from an Oilers fan perspective.

Let’s get started.

THE RUMOR

The rumor is that the deal would see the Wild send Matt Dumba and Jason Zucker, for Nugent-Hopkins and “more”.  The Hockey Press believes that the “more” piece was Benoit Pouliot.  The Oilers have not responded to the Wild, and it’s furthered rumored by the Hockey Press that the Oilers are holding out for a high draft pick or prospect to add to the pile due to Nugent-Hopkins’ value to the current Oiler lineup.

Gonna just shake my head at this one right off the bat. Are you facking kidding me? I’ll tell you this, IF the Oilers made this deal, it would be far worse than the Taylor Hall trade in my opinion. The Oilers have actual centre depth right now. Other things to consider include:

  • Is Leon Draisaitl ready to shoulder the load that comes with being a no.2 centre in the NHL right now. We don’t know that because apparently he was riding Taylor Hall’s coattails last season…
  • Nuge had one down year due to injury and now his value is that of a Jason Zucker? No offense to Zucker but come on now, let’s get real.
  • Would the Wild want to re-acquire Benoit Pouliot? Really?

The trade offer as reported is actually very fair and would be beneficial for the Wild.  With the idea of moving Dumba is not an issue, as the Wild have been preparing the team for life without one of their current defensive lineup.

How is this deal fair? The writer makes it seem like Dumba is unneeded by the Wild. Cannon fodder for a trade if you will. I imagine this is similar to how Oilers fans view Yakupov or Griffin Reinhart. So why would the Oiler deal TWO mainstays within their forward corps. for the Wild’s cast-offs?

But the combination of two of the Wild’s best young players might be too much value for Nugent-Hopkins.

But I thought the Wild were preparing to lose one or two of these players? If they’re two of the best, surely they’d want to hold on to them, no?

Furthermore, it just seems that from the start the Oilers have valued Dumba much less than Wild did.

Well duh! As they should be. I heard on Bob Stauffer’s show Oilers Now! that Chuck Fletcher and Peter Chiarelli were talking trade at the draft and the conversation was about RNH but Fletcher was only willing to part with Dumba because of the pickle Chiarelli was in.

So it’s not the Oilers that are so enamoured with Matt Dumba, it’s that the Wild are trying to give it to Chiarelli hard and dry and at this point there’s no reason for the Oilers to take it like that. They’re not as desperate as they were before that Hall trade and they could go into next season without that the right-handed shooter to run the powerplay and be okay.

So enter the “more” or in this case Pouliot.  By asking for a player like Pouliot the Wild are trying to fill a need which is another 3rd/4th line wing.  Right now the organization had options to fill that open spot in the lineup, but most of them are unexperienced.  By using Zucker to sweeten the pot the Wild open up that lineup spot in the forward corps while at the same time compelling the Oilers to offer something more than just Nugent-Hopkins.

So let me get this straight. The Oilers would trade their a centre who as of recent has been one of the most played centres in the entire NHL and no.2 left-wing who made huge contributions playing with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Connor McDavid for a no.6 dman and a winger who went -8 and only put up 23pts in 71 games last year… NO THANKS!

THE FINANCIALS

There’s only really about two ways they can close this salary cap deficit.  The Wild can offer another player with a $3.3 million or more annual hit, or they can get the Oilers to retain $3.3 million or more of Nugent-Hopkins or Pouliot’s salary.

So in this scenario the Oilers would gain cap space and could certainly eat $3.3 million or more to make this deal work.  The only issue is, do the Oilers want to give up that money badly enough to acquire Dumba and Zucker?

Oh boy… The Oilers could eat $3.3 million for how many years of Nuge’s deal? The Wild would have better luck seeing if the Oilers would take some of Pouliot’s deal given the term is shorter IF they were so desperate to make it happen.

I’m really shocked that this article didn’t mention the Wild trying to pilfer Jason Pominville and his mega contract. That’s the route I would’ve went.

I mean in my mind the only way that Nuge leaves the Oilers is if that true no.3/4 right-handed PP dman comes back. We’re talking the Tyson Barries, the Jacob Troubas, the Rasmus Ristolainens, or the Hampus Lindholms (I know he’s a lefty).

I would consider Charlie Coyle though. A big (6’3 218lb) right-handed centre (something the Oilers covet) who just came off a 40+ point season.

So let’s flip the script, how about the Oilers give the Wild Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Benoit Pouliot, and Griffin Reinhart for Charlie Coyle, Matt Dumba, Jason Zucker and a 2nd round pick?

Am I missing something here? Maybe I am overvaluing the Oilers players. Let me know what you think in the comments!

We’ve got a whole whack of new designs up at our Teepublic shop!! Including Adam Larsson, PK Subban, Shea Weber, and Taylor Hall in their new uniforms!

Click the pic below to head over and grab yours today!!

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors

Have You Considered This Defenceman?

11 Comments

Could Drew Doughty be an Edmonton Oiler soon?…
As I was listening to my daily Oilers radio yesterday I came across two Oilers pundits talking about virtually the same thing. Both Bob Stauffer, host of Oilers Now, TSN’s Ryan Rishaug were queried upon the Oilers search for a defenceman.

Near the end of the first segment of Oilers Now (I listen to it in podcast format) around the 17:30 mark, Bob was talking about how Mike Russo (Minnesota beat writer) and Jim Matheson (Oilers beat writer) were talking at the draft about the Oilers/Wild rumours. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins name came up and Stauffer said,

“Could be a player no one’s mentioned. Could be an organization looking for some scoring… We’ll see, my guess is he’s (Chiarelli) got a window here to make something happen and what we’ve seen so far, did anyone see the Maroon deal coming?”

Bobby kinda rambled a bit about the Maroon deal for a bit there but then said this:

“It makes me wonder if Chiarelli is looking for a specific price point, a range for a type of player.”

I don’t really know what this means, if you do, please let me know in the comments below.

Later on in the show Stauffer was presented with the question from a caller, “Do you think they’ll (Oilers) trade for a defenceman?” Bob’s reply was such:

“I think at this stage the more likely scenario is they will trade for a defenceman, and it will likely be a $6 million dollar forward that gets moved for a defenceman. I say that is more likely than signing a free agent like Jason Demers…Who knows maybe we’ll have more stuff to discuss as we close in on July 1st, which is free agency day. The Oilers are going to be a team to watch. If you’re an Oilers fan something is probably going to give here in the next week. It’s probably inevitable. Stay tuned on that front.”

Now Ryan Rishaug was doing his segment on the Jason Gregor Show and they got talking about the Oilers adding a blueliner. Gregor asked Rishaug. “Is there any name at the draft that got your attention as someone the Oilers should target? To which Rishaug retorted with:

“I still feel like, and I said it about a week before the draft, I feel like he’s (Chiarelli) going to come out of left field with someone we haven’t been talking about.”

Stauffer mentioned how he was on a flight with Wild GM Chuck Fletcher and Blackhawks assistant GM Norm McIver and how he got some time to talk with some hockey executives on that flight.

This got me thinking, there have been rumors about the Wild and Oilers, that’s nothing breaking but what about the Blackhawks? Are they still looking to shed some salary? I thought, could Duncan Keith be a player that nobody has been talking about? But then I checked General Fanager… No trade clause.

Other names that have been bandied about in the last few days are Brent Burns, Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk but I just don’t see them as being viable options right now.

The 2nd name that came to mind, that’s the one that got the hamster wheel flying…

ERIK KARLSSON

I checked Karlsson’s contract details and he has a no-trade clause but it doesn’t kick in until the 2017/18 season. His cap hit is $6.5M per year for another three years, so that works for the Oilers. Now here’s the kicker…

New GM, new coach, new system… Welcome to a lot of 1-0 games Sens fans.

Guy Boucher is not an offensive coach. In fact, offensive defenders that have played on his NHL teams have put up some paltry numbers.

2010 – Brett Clark was the highest scoring defenceman with 32pts, Victor Hedman was 2nd.
2011 – MA Bergeron had the most points with 24, Hedman with 23pts and Brewer had 21pts
2012 – In the shortened season, Matt Carle lead the defense with 22pts and Hedman had 20pts

Karlsson is bound to be… Bound playing in Boucher’s system.

Karlsson said that he believes the way he approaches the game will have to be changed and that “It’s going to take a while to figure each other out”.

Do you think that Erik Karlsson is going to want to do that at this point in his career. Is he going to want to play in a system that stifles scoring and focuses on defense?

My opinion is that the Sens could go to a defence by committee and shore up the scoring up front to balance their team. They’ve got Dion Phaneuf there, not that he’s a good top pairing defender but he’d definitely be suited to it and he’s a yes man, so Boucher wouldn’t have any troubles with him.

The Sens could possibly use a LW depending on what happens with Mike Hoffman and Clarke MacArthur. I mean it doesn’t sound like they know what they have in Hoffman and MacArthur played what, four games last year? Hoffman is a perfect no.2 LW and MacArthur would be an even better 3rd line LW…

The Silver Seven blog wrote a post discussing left-wingers at the draft here but why look for one in the draft when you could have Taylor Hall?

So when we talk about trading Taylor Hall it is always for another elite hockey player, right? I mean in the past I’ve probably wanted to trade him for a plethora of different packages but I’ve seen the error of my ways now. Erik Karlsson is definitely the kind of player that you’d trade Taylor Hall for, especially if your team is looking to add Milan Lucic…

So here’s a proposal:

Taylor Hall, Oscar Klefbom for Erik Karlsson, Curtis Lazar and Mike Hoffman (RFA)

I think it’s an overpayment but it’s one I’m willing to make to get a 26-year-old Erik Karlsson on the Oilers. Lazar and Hoffman would be cherries on top and if pressed I’d add to it (Fack it! Toss in Yakupov) because I can only imagine what an Oilers team led by Connor McDavid and Erik Karlsson would look like. You want to see what the 80’s Oilers would look like in 2016? A team with those two would probably be the closest you’d get.

Hall is signed for $6M until 2019/20 and Klefbom has a contract until 2022/23 for $4.167M per year. These are highly valued contracts and the Sens would have to be more than pleased to get quality players under contract for such term as they’ve only got five players (Ryan, MacArthur, Phaneuf, Karlsson, Methot) signed past 2017/18.

Karlsson would benefit the Oilers in the most obvious of ways so there’s no need to get into his pros.

The flow… That’s the obvious pro to having Karlsson right?
Mike Hoffman, to me at least, would be a better no.2 LW than Benoit Pouliot. He’s a trigger man as well, something the Oilers lack. And Curtis Lazar is well… LOVED in Edmonton but he’s having troubles putting up points in his first couple of seasons with the Sens. He’s a hard worker though, a great leader (former assistant captain of the Memorial Cup winning Edmonton Oil Kings and captain of Team Canada’s gold medal winning World Junior team in 2014/15), and he’d be a good addition to the Oilers bottom six.

THE LINEUP REVISED

Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
Hoffman-RNH-Puljujarvi
Maroon-Draisaitl-Yak(Lazar)
Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen

Sekera-Karlsson
Davidson-Fayne
Nurse-Reinhart

Am I missing anyone?

What do you think? Is Erik Karlsson the mystery man who all of these Oilers Pundits are talking about? Let me know in the comments below!

Click the pic and buy the new Pulju 16-Bit Tee!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Click the pic and grab a 16-bit McDavid tee for the summer!
Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

Dumb(a) Idea

3 Comments

The latest rumour of the day has the Edmonton Oilers sending Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the Minnesota Wild for Matt Dumba plus. I’m going to weigh both sides of the coin from a Tier 2 fan’s perspective on this rumour but there’s some required reading before I begin.

Both Woodguy (Darcy McLeod) and Jonathan Willis have chimed in previously and I highly suggest you read what they’ve written.

So basically, Woodguy sees a bit of value in Dumba and Willis sees the former Red Deer Rebel in a completely different light but both agree that having Dumba as the principle piece in the return for RNH would be inexcusable on Chiarelli’s part. I think it was Woodguy who said the team who is getting the three players in a 3 for 1 deal is the team losing the best player and thus losing the trade.

Now the two gentlemen above used numbers and fancy stats to argue their points. Let’s just use some common sense here. Straight one-for-one, Dumba for RNH is a facking horrible deal for Edmonton. No matter how much Dumba reminds me of Scott Stevens.

  • Edmonton has three soon-to-be elite centres but two of them can’t buy beer in the US yet. Leaving Nugent-Hopkins as the elder statesman of the trio. He’s the most experienced and has been forced to play against the NHL’s best centres since he was 18 years old.
  • One problem the Oilers have is that those three centres mentioned above are all left-handed shooters. Minnesota has a burgeoning centre by the name of Charlie Coyle. He’s a righty… If any deal is to be discussed involving RNH and Dumba, then Coyle has to be included.
  • Proposal: Nugent-Hopkins for Charlie Coyle, Matt Dumba, and Joel Eriksson-Ek
    • This is the only way I could accept trading Nugent-Hopkins right now. Just because he had tough season doesn’t mean he should be traded for less than true value.
    • Problem with this proposal is that it doesn’t really address the need for an older player at centre. Coyle has played similar minutes over the last three seasons as Nuge and his fancies seem to be a bit better than RNH’s but he’s yet to get over 50 points in a season whereas RNH has had three.
    • Dumba would hopefully be a 3rd pairing powerplay guy. Woodguy’s article above showed us that Dumba is a shot generator. Which would be very welcome on Edmonton’s powerplay but Willis showed us the Dumba is closer to Schultz than we care to admit.
    • Eriksson-Ek is a big two-way centre that the Oilers were interested in last year at the draft. The Swede was taken 20th overall and had Chiarelli not dealt the #16 in the Reinhart deal, Eriksson-Ek might be an Oiler right now. Well him, Barzal, or Kyle Connor… Geez…
  • Leon Draisaitl is not ready for prime time just yet. He needs a year at third line centre. A year where he can focus on developing and not have to worry about the responsibilities of being a top 6 centre in the league. The Oilers need to be treating Leon like they’re treating Reinhart or Nurse. Slowly bringing him along with massive o-zone starts and special teams. Give him Yak as a winger, Maroon as the other.

See, here’s the rub with trading each one of the $6M men:

  • Taylor Hall – Elite playmaking left winger. Top three in the NHL. Drives the bus every time he’s on the ice.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Team’s best two-way centre and oldest of the top three. The team finally has centre depth and it would be a travesty to dig into that depth before one could see it in action for 20 games.
  • Jordan Eberle – Right-handed sniper who has found chemistry with McDavid. Trading him would leave the team with one right-handed winger in the top 6 and he’d never played a game in the NHL.

So you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The team could address each hole left by one of the $6M men via free agency but there’s no guarantees. Best thing might just be to sit tight and let the deals come to Chia instead of forcing them through.

Minnesota is a team I could see the Oilers dealing with but as I said earlier, not for what is being rumoured now. Maybe Jared Spurgeon jumps into the conversation and then we’re cooking with fire! Until then though, we wait…

Let me know what you think about the Nuge/Dumba rumours in the comments below!

Click the pic and grab a 16-bit McDavid tee for the summer!
Click the pic and buy the new Pulju 16-Bit Tee!
Grab a Grinning Finn tee by clicking on the pic!!