This morning Igor Eronko tweeted (below) out that longtime Oilers tweener and AHL superstar Anton Lander has agreed to terms with KHL club AK Bars and will start next season. According to thearticle‘s google translation, he’ll be one of the highest paid foreign players in the KHL. The article also said that nothing would be announced until the end of the season.
Back in October, a list was published on Sportsnet here and it detailed the 30 highest paid players in the KHL. The highest paid “foreign” player was Mikko Koskinen at $1.3M per year. So I guess that means Lander get a slight raise from his $987k that he makes here.
It’s too bad. I really liked Anton Lander and it’s a shame that his wheels never got that upgrade because the heart was there and he was quite good on the defensive side of the puck. Can’t forget about those faceoffs either as he was one of the best draw takers on the Oilers.
The Swede only mustered up 4pts in 22 games this season for Edmonton but a mind-blowing 46pts in 31 games for the Oilers farm club in Bakersfield.
(Khaira, Pakarinen, Pitlick, Kassian, Draisaitl are RFAs) (Hendricks and Desharnais are UFAs)
Klefbom-Larsson Sekera-Benning Nurse-Fayne (Russell, Gryba are UFAs)
Talbot/LB in net
Now, at this point, the Oilers have $23.386mil in cap space. There will be likely around $1mil in bonus overages, so make that $22.386mil.
On the back end, word is that Russell won’t be back due to contract costs. Fayne will also likely be dumped with retained salary of up to 50%, leaving $1.8mil on the books.
That puts us at $20.57mil in cap space.
Draisaitl, we can assume, will likely fetch a $6mil deal. That puts the club at $14.57mil.
Kassian, with his 21 points to date, will cost (on the high side) $2mil. So we’re now at $12.57mil. From there, let’s assume Vegas ends up taking Khaira (as likely as any), and we quality Pitlick and Pakarinen to $800k each.
That leaves the Oilers at $11mil in cap space, and the following roster:
I would say Desharnais might get a 2 year, $3mil per deal if PC can’t find a better 3C option. So let’s plug him in here.
That puts the Oilers at $8mil. Another $2.5mil will go in bonuses to McDavid. That’s $5.5mil left now.
Depth defenseman, let’s assume $1mil spent on that, we’re at $4.5mil now.
So that leaves $4.5mil, the 2RHD spot open, all forward spots filled, and Pouliot, RNH and Eberle remain on the roster.
At this point, based on his performance so far, let’s say RNH is the one dealt. As a hypothetical, let’s say RNH and the 1st round pick went to Carolina for Faulk (this is the type of deal the Oilers could do), so the Oilers gain $1.2mil in this transaction.
$5.7mil now, and then we subtract around $2mil for Puljujarvi to slide into the lineup, make it $3.7mil in cap space.
$3.7mil here. Now, the next season, Letestu and Maroon are UFAs, LB/Benning/Nurse/Caggs/Slepy/McDavid are RFAs.
Let’s say they keep Maroon at $3mil, and Letestu walks off. We’re now at $4mil cap space. McDavid will need around another $6mil for his contract. Pouliot gets bought out, add another $2.66mil in cap space.
That gives us $6.66mil in cap space, McDavid gets his $10mil, we have $600k left.
Let’s say Benson may be ready for 3LW by then, so 925k deal for him. Cags gets around $1.5mil, Slepy around $1.5mil. Nurse and Benning both get around $2.5mil.
That puts the Oilers at -$4.63mil with a roster of:
Ok, so it’s clear, we have some cap issues here. I would suggest Sekera and Eberle are the next two dealt, that’s $11.5mil cleared. That leaves the Oilers at $5.8mil in cap space and..
Now, I’m also going to say it’s possible the Oilers decide to deal Benning at this point for some value, and they now import the Jones-Bear line for the 3rd pairing from the AHL.
That leaves the Oilers at $6.45mil in cap space. In their deals for Sekera, Benning and Eberle, the Oilers collect a series of cheap prospects, picks, and a RW worth approximately $4mil. For the sake of argument, let’s say it’s a RW similar to Silfverberg. That leaves the Oilers with $2.7mil in cap room at the end of this all.
For 2019-2020, the only major contract to deal with will be Talbot and Puljujarvi. However, we’ve also assumed a neutral salary cap to this point. Legitimately, it will probably have gone up approximately $4mil by this point, so put the Oilers at $6.7mil in cap space at this point. Puljujarvi will take another $2mil on his deal, Talbot another $3mil.
The Oilers finish 2019-2020 with $1.7mil in cap space.
So, there’s how it likely shakes out going forward folks, the team will look something resembling that, with the picks/prospects brought in from dealing Benning/Sekera/Eberle going towards replacing players as needed.
That’s not to say the costs might not be lower (or higher), or Vegas may take a guy like Pouliot, or what have you, but there’s a realistic scenario.
The Edmonton Oilers’ Ryan Mantha, a right-handed defenseman, and captain of the OHL’s Niagara Ice Dogs is having his best season to date and to top it off the coaches of the opposing teams have recognized this in the annual OHL Coaches Poll.
What is the OHL Coaches Poll? Ripped straight from the OHL’s website, it says:
The OHL Coaches Poll provides member club coaches with the opportunity to recognize the top three players in 20 different skill categories within their own conference.
Ryan Mantha was actually ranked in FOUR categories in his conference (the most of any player) and those categories were:
Best Defensive Defenseman (1st)
Best Shot (2nd) – Behind Owen Tippett and if you’ve seen Tippett’s shot (It’s incredible), you know how good that must make Mantha’s.
Most Improved Player (tied for 1st)
Best Offensive Defenseman (2nd)
Admittedly, I don’t follow junior hockey closely apart from the weekly gander at the top draft prospects but it sounds like Mantha is a dominant player at the junior level and if he’s thought of so highly by the other coaches in the league, might we infer that he’s the best defenseman in the OHL right now? Honestly, look at the categories he’s ranking so highly in.
Using Christian Roatis’ NHLe calculator, his NHLe for this season would be 25 pts and IF that were to translate to real life, Mantha would be 4th in rookie scoring for defensemen, tied with Ivan Provorov and ahead of others such as Jakob Chychrun, Josh Morrisey, and Brandon Carlo.
Draft Guru Steve Kournianos had this to say about Mantha on Twitter today:
I gotta say, I like the sounds of that scouting report. This is definitely the kind of player the Oilers system is lacking and it’s about time Edmonton starts stacking its minor league club with quality prospects instead of AHL vets. I can understand signing a career minor leaguer who could play bottom 6 or bottom pairing but I believe that the most impactful TOI should be given to the prospects and that developing the players should be the ultimate goal NOT winning because if it’s done right, the winning will be a result of proper development.
Next season will most likely see Bakersfield welcome Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, and potentially William Lagesson to their club AS WELL AS Ryan Mantha, I mean, barring any trades of course.
The future does indeed look bright and I, for one, am looking forward to finally cheering for a club that will draft and develop their assets properly. Something that can’t really be said for previous regimes.
What do you think about Mantha? Have you seen him play?
As a young man, the Oilers’ playoff runs in the late 90’s were epic. Taking out top teams like the Colorado Avalanche or the Detroit Red Wings was glorious but the rivalry between the Dallas Stars and the Oilers was something else. For me, at least, it had taken over as THE rivalry to watch as the Battle of Alberta wasn’t all that interesting at that time. Weight/Smyth/Guerin going toe-to-toe with Modano, Hatcher, and Lehtinen. Dallas was a major heavyweight (in every sense of the word) those days and for the Oilers to keep up and defeat them was YUGE!!!
That said, I was moved to do up a BLH Top 5 Stars/Oilers Moments on youtube after I saw this tweet:
Quote tweet this with your favourite #Oilers vs #Stars rivalry moment. All entrants will be in draw for Row23 tix to the Stars @ Oil game.
I had to check out some of the answers to refresh the ol’ headbone a bit but man did a flood of memories come back! Hemsky, Smytty, Cujo, Marchant and the immortal Bob Cole calling what might be the best save of all time!!! Good times… Good times…
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Oilers might be in this mix. Aston-Reese attended Oilers' summer development camp in 2016. 3-year teammate of Matt Benning at Northeastern. https://t.co/dnc2MkUEOo
Position – C/RW
Shoots – Left
Height – 6’1″
Weight – 204lb
Stats – 36GP 20G 32A 62PTS
What everybody is saying:
“He plays 200 feet. He’s a hard guy to play against because he plays both ends of the rink. His habits and details are tremendous for a kid who is a senior in college. He does everything the right way. He does it in practice. He kills penalties. He’s used in every situation,” – Northeastern Head Coach Jim Madigan (source)
“He’s a smart 200-foot kind of a guy,” says Kirk Luedeke, a scout with Red Line Report. “He doesn’t have a ton of size, but he plays bigger. He’s heavy on pucks, he’s responsible, he’s diligent, he works hard along the walls and he goes to the dirty areas and he’s got some jam. The offense has really come up in the last couple of seasons, especially this season, that’s what’s getting a lot of people’s attentions, but the foundation is there
“Let’s say youre an NHL team and you sign him and he makes your team right away,” Luedeke says. “Even if he’s not playing on a scoring line right and producing points for you, he’s probably doing some really good things on your bottom six or bottom line, and he’s the kind of guy that can work his way up because he’s smart and he’s industrious. ” – Sports Illustrated(source)
“The impact he has on his team’s performance when he’s on the ice almost can’t be overstated. Plus-8 percent attempt differential, plus-5 unblocked attempts, plus-9 on-goal, and plus-11 from higher-danger areas. How about plus-38 in goals? And how about doing it while you’re effectively used as a shutdown forward, getting just 26 percent of your zone starts in the offensive end? Come on.” – Ryan Lambert, Puck Daddy (source)
“At the next level, he’s going to have to be a bottom six player, and all indications point to him being able to do just that. A lot of his goals have come off tip-ins, rebounds or looks in the slot where he’s found a seam in the defense and received a good pass. Very few of his plays are of the highlight reel variety.” – Jeff Cox, SB Nation College Hockey (source)
“Already 22, Aston-Reese uses his physicality and strength to create room for himself and teammates, scoring goals mostly from the front of the net on rebounds and tips. His game is almost pro-ready as he likely won’t ever move past a team’s bottom-six at the next level.
Like with any other college free agent, he does come with his share of weaknesses. His foot speed has long been an issue, and may be exposed at the professional level against other players who are just as strong as him. He lacks the high-level creativity that scouts look for, but makes up for it with work ethic and body positioning. In a stationary battle he’s as good as anyone in the college ranks right now, but that won’t be true when he suddenly has to take on fully-grown men.
There is upside however, as with an NHL skating coach he could get that extra jump to help him keep up and his shot release is already fairly quick. Likely he’ll be looked at to add immediate depth to an AHL squad and NHL bottom-six, with the opportunity at some point to see some powerplay time if his net-front play continues.” – Gavin Lee, Pro Hockey Rumors (source)
CONCLUSION
From an Oilers perspective, does signing Ashton-Reese make sense right now? Do the Oilers need more help in their bottom six given they’re scratching the likes of Anton Slepyshev, Jujhar Khaira, and Drake Caggiula every night? Also, would it be prudent for the Oilers to add Ashton-Reese and have to teach him a new system at this point in the season?
I can’t see it. I like what I hear from the reports above and his highlights but I’m just not sure he’s a fit for the big club at this moment.
What I could see though is the Oilers signing him and giving the AHL club a very potent weapon to go with Jesse Puljujarvi for the Condors’ playoff run.
What say you?!
Let us know in the comments section below.
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