(Khaira, Pakarinen, Pitlick, Kassian, Draisaitl are RFAs) (Hendricks and Desharnais are UFAs)
Klefbom-Larsson Sekera-Benning Nurse-Fayne (Russell, Gryba are UFAs)
Talbot/LB in net
Now, at this point, the Oilers have $23.386mil in cap space. There will be likely around $1mil in bonus overages, so make that $22.386mil.
On the back end, word is that Russell won’t be back due to contract costs. Fayne will also likely be dumped with retained salary of up to 50%, leaving $1.8mil on the books.
That puts us at $20.57mil in cap space.
Draisaitl, we can assume, will likely fetch a $6mil deal. That puts the club at $14.57mil.
Kassian, with his 21 points to date, will cost (on the high side) $2mil. So we’re now at $12.57mil. From there, let’s assume Vegas ends up taking Khaira (as likely as any), and we quality Pitlick and Pakarinen to $800k each.
That leaves the Oilers at $11mil in cap space, and the following roster:
I would say Desharnais might get a 2 year, $3mil per deal if PC can’t find a better 3C option. So let’s plug him in here.
That puts the Oilers at $8mil. Another $2.5mil will go in bonuses to McDavid. That’s $5.5mil left now.
Depth defenseman, let’s assume $1mil spent on that, we’re at $4.5mil now.
So that leaves $4.5mil, the 2RHD spot open, all forward spots filled, and Pouliot, RNH and Eberle remain on the roster.
At this point, based on his performance so far, let’s say RNH is the one dealt. As a hypothetical, let’s say RNH and the 1st round pick went to Carolina for Faulk (this is the type of deal the Oilers could do), so the Oilers gain $1.2mil in this transaction.
$5.7mil now, and then we subtract around $2mil for Puljujarvi to slide into the lineup, make it $3.7mil in cap space.
$3.7mil here. Now, the next season, Letestu and Maroon are UFAs, LB/Benning/Nurse/Caggs/Slepy/McDavid are RFAs.
Let’s say they keep Maroon at $3mil, and Letestu walks off. We’re now at $4mil cap space. McDavid will need around another $6mil for his contract. Pouliot gets bought out, add another $2.66mil in cap space.
That gives us $6.66mil in cap space, McDavid gets his $10mil, we have $600k left.
Let’s say Benson may be ready for 3LW by then, so 925k deal for him. Cags gets around $1.5mil, Slepy around $1.5mil. Nurse and Benning both get around $2.5mil.
That puts the Oilers at -$4.63mil with a roster of:
Ok, so it’s clear, we have some cap issues here. I would suggest Sekera and Eberle are the next two dealt, that’s $11.5mil cleared. That leaves the Oilers at $5.8mil in cap space and..
Now, I’m also going to say it’s possible the Oilers decide to deal Benning at this point for some value, and they now import the Jones-Bear line for the 3rd pairing from the AHL.
That leaves the Oilers at $6.45mil in cap space. In their deals for Sekera, Benning and Eberle, the Oilers collect a series of cheap prospects, picks, and a RW worth approximately $4mil. For the sake of argument, let’s say it’s a RW similar to Silfverberg. That leaves the Oilers with $2.7mil in cap room at the end of this all.
For 2019-2020, the only major contract to deal with will be Talbot and Puljujarvi. However, we’ve also assumed a neutral salary cap to this point. Legitimately, it will probably have gone up approximately $4mil by this point, so put the Oilers at $6.7mil in cap space at this point. Puljujarvi will take another $2mil on his deal, Talbot another $3mil.
The Oilers finish 2019-2020 with $1.7mil in cap space.
So, there’s how it likely shakes out going forward folks, the team will look something resembling that, with the picks/prospects brought in from dealing Benning/Sekera/Eberle going towards replacing players as needed.
That’s not to say the costs might not be lower (or higher), or Vegas may take a guy like Pouliot, or what have you, but there’s a realistic scenario.
**This is another guest post from former BLH contributor and a well-known and respected member of multiple Oilers Facebook groups, Micah Kowalchuk.**
As I sit here enjoying the fact the heat has gone out in my building in the balmy Saskatchewan winter…
So, we have 3 new players, Ryan Mantha, Justin Fontaine and David Desharnais..
Ryan Mantha: This is a 6’5 225lb right-shot defender who was drafted in the 4th by the Rangers, then when he didn’t sign his rights were traded to Washington, and he didn’t sign there either, and now he’s with the Oilers. He’s got 51 points in 58 games, and he’s the captain of his team.
One of the reasons he signed here is he liked the fact the Oilers let their prospects play, we can expect to see him with the Condors as soon as his junior season ends.
The knock on him is his skating, but that’s usually the knock on most players of his size. He’s also been criticized for poor positioning in the past, but that appears to be improving.
Don’t expect him on the Oilers right away, but he’ll form the core of a very good Bakersfield Condors D with Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and others.
Justin Fontaine: We got him in an AHL trade for Taylor Beck, who’s very good AHL season wasn’t translating to the NHL.
Fontaine played for the Wild from 2013-2016, scoring 68 points in 197 games with an average of 12 minutes ice time. He’s 5’10 174lbs, and he’s not a physical player, nor does he block a ton of shots. However, he doesn’t make many mistakes, and had a -3.2% CORSI with a 44/56 offensive and defensive zone usage.
His best season was 2014-2015 when he had 31 points in 71 games, 0% CORSI, in 12mins ice time.
For now, he’s an AHL player, but he’s an AHL player who’s proven in the past he can be a productive 3rd/4th line RW. We all know the Oilers have some question marks on the right side, and he’s being brought in because he can legitimately push for a spot.
Desharnais I’ve already discussed, but I’ll just restate that this is a player who, as recently as last season, was a .45ppg C. He’s having a down year this year with a .32ppg season, but there’s also been a lot of flux in the Montreal lineup and he was hampered by injuries.
Although he’s a smaller player, he’s had 5 NHL seasons with over .5ppg, he’s a safe bet to be able to go back to those numbers with some quality linemates, and to move back into the 50% faceoff range he’s spent most of his career at.
_________________________________________________
Yes, the new people are small. We have a small 3C (5’7). Now as much as people are terrified of the small people, let’s keep in mind that, as a team, the Oilers are very, very, very big these days..
Players on the Oilers under 6’0: Caggiula, Desharnais, Eberle, Letestu, Russell. We can breath in and remember that against St. Louis we put 9 guys on the ice over 210lbs.
Ok, I can hear the screaming already. I know, I know, but I’ll explain his logic, which makes more sense once it’s laid out (he never did explain it, this is me figuring out why he said it)
Nothing one really needs to explain about the Top-6 or the Defense at all, so this will cover the Bottom-6 and the Return of Pouliot.
The 3rd line: Yes, Pouliot is there, and Puljujarvi. Why on earth would we do this?
(1) Pouliot has played 300 minutes with Desharnais in Montreal, so about 25 games. There’s some comfort there.
Now, first thing that jumps out is Khaira’s CORSI, but small sample size and 8 minutes a game will do that, don’t overrated it too much. Second thing we see is Pakarinen is putting up some good numbers, but again, small sample size. If both of these guys keep those respective numbers going by the playoffs, expect a re-think.
For now, we know Puljujarvi can score, and his defense was underrated. The idea seems to be that he’ll be playoff ready by the end of the season, and short of Pakarinen, he had the best numbers of any of these guys.
As for Pouliot instead of Slepy or Cags, defensively (weird, I know) he is actually better, and although the scoring numbers are similar, Pouliot has proven to be a scoring forward as recently as last year.
In theory, if they can all rebound or step up, Pouliot-Desharnais-Puljujarvi can be a legitimate 3rd scoring line. There’s all the talent in the world there if it comes together, and both Pouliot and Puljujarvi have the size to support Desharnais.
At this point, Cags/Slepy haven’t proven enough in the scoring department to unseat anyone from this hypothetical 3rd line. Even if you hate Pouliot. Although, if Pakarinen keeps up his near .40ppg pace, he might take this spot instead and Puljujarvi stays in the minors. Basically, some European guy with the last initial P will be here.
On the 4th line, Khaira’s looked good, but there hasn’t been the offense there to displace Hendricks from his playoff spot. And Kassian on the right side has proven to work well with Letestu, so, yeah.
Love it or not, this is the likely playoff roster (with Pakarinen my better favorite to steal that 3RW spot)
Finally: For the “OMFG WHY DID WE NOT GET MORE STUFF AT THE DEADLINE CROWD”
Well, we have wings. Lots of wings. Would have been nice to get a more proven wing, but when we got the 3C instead, that meant we weren’t going to bother. Why? Because we have Eberle and Draisaitl at the right wing, and a ton of options for the bottom-6. So, yes, no wingers, 3C instead, makes sense.
Defense: We got Mantha, nothing else was worth kicking tires on. If PC decides he really wants to gamble on a scoring RHD, he’ll go toss Wisniewski a few bucks. Makes sense.
So, that takes us to goaltending. People want to know, why didn’t we get a goalie??? There was Halak, Fleury, Niemi, Lehtonen, Pavelec, Mason, Neuvirth..
Setting aside salary costs, contract terms, etc.. This is why..
Our existing backup, Laurent Brossoit, has a .910.
Basically, we didn’t get a backup goalie because the ones on the market cost too much, are all having brutal seasons (league average goaltending is .913), and quite frankly, PC looked at them and thought “I’m really not sure any of these guys are better than what I have”, and he was probably right.
Now, we may need to play LB more, so be it, but when it boils right down to it, can’t blame the guy.
And now back to the playoff stretch!
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**This is a guest post from an old friend of the site, Micah Kowalchuk. You might know him if you’re part of some of the Oilers groups on facebook or from some of the great articles he posted when he was part of the writing staff here.**
Now, this isn’t going to be a popular suggestion, we’ve all been going on about the players we can add to make a cup run, in spite of our GM saying he had no plans to do that.
We’re now seeing guys like Boyle go for a good prospect and a 2nd round pick, and there has to be a question of “Are we good enough this year to blow that much on players”.
If the answer is yes, then carry on.But, what if you genuinely believe this isn’t the year.What we can do then is shop for future pieces and sell expiring assets for a high dollar figure.
We know the following players aren’t going anywhere:
And we know RNH and Eberle, if they are dealt, will be in off-season deals where players with term tend to get dealt.
That leaves this deadline and the following assets:
Hendricks <- soon to be a UFA, with retained salary may have depth value, and more than we thought after today (As of today’s prices, possibly a 3rd for him);
Russell <- yes, fan favorite, but what we hear from management indicates he’s not likely to sign here next year at the price we want; (As of today’s prices, outside change we might even get a low first round pick, or a 2nd and a prospect at least)
Gryba <- a warrior rental 7th defender who might be worth something to a playoff club; (Maybe we get a Polak special with him and Hendricks combined for a couple of 2nds, you never know)
And Pouliot and Fayne <- if we retain 50% on them, maybe we find a buyer to get the space off our books; (At 50% retained, some mid level picks)
So.. Let’s say we dealt those pieces based on the idea of maximizing value, what is the roster we have left assuming we could sell them all?
(We basically lose Pouliot and Hendy up front and give Lander his last shot playing with a couple of guys who he tore the AHL to shreds with.Rather than let him walk, let’s give Lander his last shot at proving he’s got something, and let’s give him that shot the best way we can.We’re not going to be taking much of a step back anyhow over Hendricks worst case).And we call up Beck as the 13th forward, another expiring asset in the AHL who’s shown he may have something.
On the back end:
Klefbom-Larsson Sekera-Benning Nurse-Davidson
Let’s face it, this won’t be much worse either, and we have a pile of 7th defenders who’ve earned time up here and done well enough in Oesterle or Reinhart or Musil or Simpson.
What we’d be doing here is going with players we might have next season and gathering as many possible assets as we could get our hands on.Maybe we land a young right shot forward asset or a young right shot D asset to try out, maybe we just get picks we can sell to Vegas towards clearing bad contracts or getting players we need.
This isn’t to say I’m recommending this strategy per say, but I’m giving some insight into what we may see PC do instead in building for the future rather than the short term, feel free to scream all you want over the idea.
As the Oilers roll along, here’s your end of the year update on the Oilers as a treat on this cheerful winter day…
(1) Injuries or the Lack Thereof..
Although the Oilers have had repeated injuries, it’s worth noting McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic, Eberle, Maroon, RNH, Klefbom, Larsson have not missed a single game this year.
Sekera has missed one due to injury, Letestu and Kassian sat a couple, but overall, no “Top 6” forwards have missed time with injury, and other than Sekera’s flu, and Russell’s 6 missed games, no Top-4 defenders have either.
For once, the injuries have hit our depth (Nurse, Davidson, Gryba, Fayne, Pitlick, Pakarinen, Hendricks) rather than our key players. It’s a nice change of pace
(2) The Goaltending
Cam Talbot is trucking along with 33 of 36 games played, with a .919 save percentage on a league average of .914. This puts him on pace to start 75 games. Last year, no goalie in the league played more than 68.
Here’s hoping for 2017 that either Gustavsson can start to play a few, Ellis or LB can step up, or that management trades for a backup for the love of god before Talbot gets injured or starts to slip due to overuse.
(3) Scoring
RNH is starting to pick it up since he’s been used as a hybrid winger-center alongside Draisaitl, so here’s our end of the year pro-rated scoring and rating (based purely on points) for the Top-6:
McDavid: 93 points (Up, although Crosby make take the scoring title)
Draisaitl: 71 points (Up, hard to knock those totals from your 2C unless you’re Pittsburgh)
Lucic: 55 points (Even, on pace to put up exactly what he usually does)
Eberle: 55 points (Down, this is still some underperforming on his part, but he’s been stepping up lately, so he might go back to even)
Maroon: 39 (Even, this isn’t his point per game pace of last year, but 40 points out of your 2nd line winger is ok performance)
RNH: 39 (Down, this is not a $6mil a year performance level, but he’s been doing better since being put on a line with Drai, here’s hoping he continues trending to even and can break 50 for the year)
Amusing note: Both 1st line wingers have the same points, both 2nd line wingers have the same points…
(4) The Russell Question..
First point: Sekera is the best D on this team this year, and his 17 points in 36 (this is better than RNH and Maroon) make that clear. Let’s just leave that there.
Should the Oilers sign Russell now? I know people love him, so let’s look at all the numbers, stats and not stats.
Russell was an offensive defender in the past, with numbers in the .32-.43 range. There’s a definite slide there we should note, it may indicate he’s starting to lose a step offensively, as the opportunities to score are there with this club.
ATOI: Russell is 2nd on the team at 21:29, Sekera leads with 21:44, Klefbom has 21:23, Larsson 20:10.
So he’s holding his weight here, good enough.
Blocks: Yep, still leads the club with 89, then Larsson with 69 and Sekera with 61.
Hits: Larsson actually leads our club by a large margin with 113, then Gryba with 76, Nurse with 60… Russell’s not doing much on this front. But for everyone saying we need Gryba or Nurse so we have someone physical on the back end, well, pay more attention to Larsson, he’s hammering someone over 3 times per game, he IS our physical defender.
So, without getting into fancy stats, we can see Russell is good shot-blocker, not overly physical, but logs solid ice time, even if he isn’t doing much offensively with it.
Ok. Now, I know a lot of people don’t trust stats, so let me put these in perspective…
3rd pairing guys who get sheltered usage tend to have high stat numbers for CORSI (see why Schultz looks so good). So, we see Davidson, Benning, Gryba and Nurse looking good here, and they should, they have the most sheltered usage. Klefbom, who spent time on the 3rd pairing, also seems pretty even.
Now, we know Sekera, Larsson and Russell play the hard minutes. Sekera, no matter how we use him, manages to more or less break even, hard to knock him at all, and his offense helps him.
So, let’s compare the most similar two guys, Larsson and Russell. Both are used for heavy defensive minutes, have played together as partners and are used together on the PK, and both have similar offensive totals.
Larsson: -2.6 and -2.3 for stats. Russell: -7.3 and -4.9 for stats.
Look, I know people hate stats, and talk about how good the Oilers look when Russell is there. I get it. But, I’m just going to say part of this is due to the fact the Oilers have had some VERY bad defenders in the past.
We started the year with Davidson on the shelf, so we used Nurse, Benning and Gryba on the 3rd pairing, and have continued that since Nurse went on the shelf right before Davidson got back. Davidson might be ok on a 2nd pairing, none of the rest of these guys are. So Russell looks really good compared to us using a 3rd pairing guy there.
However, Russell is not that good of a defender. He just isn’t. There’s a reason he was still unsigned. He is an average 2nd pairing defender, and his performance on the Oilers really hasn’t been that good by any number beyond shot blocking. The fact is he’s an average 2nd pairing guy who looks really good here because we haven’t been using even “average” guys until PC took over.
What does this mean? It means you do not worry about signing him right now. If he signs somewhere else in the off-season, you know what, he’s replaceable, because PC is actually a competent NHL GM and he can find someone on the same level. Also, the Oilers need someone with more offensive potential on that 2RHD slot, there’s no secret, our D scoring is still below average and would be ugly without Sekera pulling the unit together.
If we’re going to protect 4 D, you protect Davidson and not Russell, the guy you didn’t need to sign.
This is not to say the Oilers won’t bring Russell back. If there’s no better 2RHD options (and there may not be), then great, go ahead. But you don’t hamstring the team and lose Davidson just to bring back an average defender, it’s not necessary.
(5) Player Development
Ok, so right now we’ve got three lines we can write in with pen…
Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
Maroon-Draisaitl-RNH
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian
That leaves us with one line that’s a major question mark, this one:
Pouliot-Caggiula-Puljujarvi
Now, none of these are overly physical guys, they’re all skill guys, not defensive experts. So, how are they performing skill wise?
Pouliot: .22ppg – ok, this is in the toilet compared to his last two seasons with the Oilers, and 14:40 ice time…
Puljujarvi: .32ppg and 11:42 ice time. Nothing great for scoring, but hard to develop with that ice time…
Caggiula: 41.8% on faceoffs, .26ppg, 13:04 ice time. Nothing much going on here either..
What I’m going to say is this. This entire line should just be sent to the AHL. Yes, this is an indictment on Pouliot, but for Caggiula and Puljujarvi, these are guys who are expected to be Top-6 caliber, and 20 minutes a night ripping up the AHL are far more beneficial to them than being our de-facto 4th line. Let them go there, along with Pouliot (if he’s claimed on waivers, great), and get some time there…
So, who do we replace them with then?…
Slepyshev-Lander-Beck is who
We’re looking at a 10-13min 4th line for usage. None of these guys are projected to be a top-6 NHL forward, but they’re ideal for 4th line usage, and most importantly, when sent to the AHL they did their job without complaining, and did it well.
The LW: Slepyshev, 6’2 187lbs, had 4 in 15 at the NHL level, and has 7 in 6 since he was sent down. Slepy had a -2 CORSI, and .27ppg in his 15 NHL games, this is just fine for a 4LW.
The C: Lander, 6’0 184lbs, had 3 in 16 at the NHL level, and has 16 in 11 since he was sent down. In his 16 games this year he was 57.1% on faceoffs, his CORSI was nasty (-9.1%) but that’s a factor of his extreme defensive usage like Letestu (30% ozone start only), and he put up .19ppg in that usage.
The RW: Beck, 6’2 203lbs, has 0 in 3 NHL games but he’s had an average of 5 minutes ice time.. He tore up the AHL as its leading scorer with 30 in 19 games, and has handled 4th line minutes for the Predators before.
Am I saying Slepy-Lander-Beck is a better line than Pouliot-Caggiula-Puljujarvi? No, I’m not. What I am saying is they’ll win more faceoffs and probably give us the same level of performance, maybe even a little bit more because they have more NHL experience and may gel together on a “cast-offs” line.
What I’m saying is using Caggiula and Puljujarvi here is a waste of development, they’d be far better served getting 20mins+ a night tearing the AHL to shreds, and “The Replacements” can do the same job at least as good without harming anyone’s development.
Plus we save a year of Puljujarvi’s UFA status keeping him under 40 games, and we save a few bucks of cap space sending Pouliot down.
(6) Last But Not Least: The Oilers and the Playoffs…
Yes, it looks like the Oilers might make it, and have a solid chance at it.
So, do they go for rentals..
We know they could use a veteran depth forward, preferably a right-shot C for the bottom-6, and maybe a 2RHD with powerplay ability. And clearly a backup goalie.
The answer is: Only if they really figure they have a shot at the West final, or if the prices are cheap.
I’d say a reasonable compromise would be something like Vrbata and Stone from Arizona at the deadline, and Miller from Vancouver. But I wouldn’t overpay for any, and all are true rentals, pending UFAs.
Happy 2017 folks, from the only group of people who are happy about 2016, Oilers fans!
**Thanks to Micah for this post! He’s not on the Twitter machine but you can catch him in the Oilers Facebook groups with his updates quite often.**
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*Editor’s note* This is a guest post from former BLH contributor Micah Kowalchuk. He’s been gracious enough to give us this post and we thought it was pretty thought provoking. Please, take a gander and let us know what you think in the comments below! Enjoy!*
Notes on the Oilers 4 games in:
McDavid, Lucic and Eberle continue to have very high advanced stats. The problem is, after them, the only other guy in the positives on the team is Maroon. In fact, Pouliot, RNH, Pitlick and Letestu are all performing incredibly bad right now.
There’s an obvious need for a change-up at forward. RNH, as much as we all love him, he’s brutal at face-offs right now and he’s not generating any points. There’s all this talk about making Draisaitl a winger for RNH, but Drai’s actually winning faceoffs and has size. It’s time to think different.
First Line
McDavid needs a fast, skilled LW with a two-way game. Congrats, RNH is now his left wing. I know, I know, we want toughness up there to protect him, etc. We’ve got lots of guys out there to do that, let’s give McDavid the speedy winger he needs, and see what this group can do with speed to burn. RNH-McDavid-Eberle.
Second Line
Let’s go for a change-up, something interesting. Lucic-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi can go out as a change-up second line, pure power and possession. I know, Puljujarvi hasn’t been performing as well, but let’s give him Lucic as a mentor and give this line a shot, this line would probably fit Puljujarvi much better.
Third Line
Ok, Cags is out long term, puts a damper on it… We’ve got Lander, Letestu and maybe Pitlick as centers here. We can give this line some good wingers in Maroon and Kassian, but at this point, I’d be accepting that Caggiula’s not going to be NHL ready any time soon, he’ll need some recovery time in the AHL. Now, at this point, I’m writing off the $4mil that is Pouliot, if RNH is a first line winger, we really can ditch Pouliot.
Fourth Line
And I’m probably going to run with a 4th line made up of Lander-Letestu-Pitlick with Slepyshev pinch-hitting in here wherever it works best. So, it’s time to deal Pouliot off for something resembling a 3C, and there’s probably a team we can find who’d be interested. Just as an example, let’s say the Oilers were to call up Toronto and offer Pouliot and a pick for Bozak, a right-shot center. The Oilers can then go Maroon-Bozak-Kassian as a 3rd line, double up on the power crew up front.
I know, we’re 3-1, but we’re 3-1 because McDavid’s dragging the team along, the RNH line isn’t working at all. We do need to address the secondary scoring at some point because they’re a very expensive tire-fire, which is why the suggestions (RNH + Pouliot have combined for $10mil in salary and 2 points in 4 games, this needs to be fixed).
RNH-McDavid-Eberle, Lucic-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi, Maroon-Bozak-Kassian, Lander-Letestu-Pitlick (with Slepy fighting for a spot). And, if Caggiula does come back and Puljujarvi does need to go to the AHL, Bozak’s also more than capable of sliding to the right side and pulling his weight, and he’d probably look pretty good on that 2nd line with Lucic and Draisaitl.
The Defense
Klefbom is, right now, the third best LHD on the team. If you were to go by stats here, it should be Sekera-Larsson, Nurse-Russell, Klefbom-(insert whoever). I’ve never been a big Nurse fan, but him and Sekera are the only two + CORSI guys this year, he’s showing up to play. Larsson’s hanging in there with some very tough minutes, but Klefbom’s actually dragging down Larsson’s performance. It’s time to slide him down the line-up a little to get his feet wet. Also, I’d probably go Sekera-Russell, Nurse-Larsson, because Nurse and Larsson actually look pretty damn good together.
This brings us to the problem of who gets that 3rd pairing RHD spot with Fayne injured, Davidson injured, and Gryba not looking all that good in the spot. Sure, we can bring in Benning, but that doesn’t seem ideal right now.
Me, I’d see if Wisniewski has actually signed that KHL deal for sure, but that’s just a thought.
Thanks for reading folks.
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