Category Archives: Armchair GM

Edmonton Oilers Playoff Talk: “Jay Woodcroft’s decisions in this series have people questioning him…”

This is your TL/DR (too long, didn’t read) summary post where excerpts are taken from the best of the best when it comes to Edmonton Oilers blogs. BLH gives you his two cents on the latest posts being published in the Oilogosphere! Including those from Lowetide.ca, The Athletic, Oilersnation, The Cult of Hockey, Copper N Blue, Oil on Whyte, and more!

The latest NHL news, rumors, and speculation comes from all of the internet’s top sites like Spector’s Hockey, The Fourth Period, NHL Trade Talk, The Hockey Writers, and The Daily Goal Horn just to name a few!

If you’re short on time but want to keep up with the day’s Oilers news, you’ve come to the right place!

Give us a follow on the socials!

Lowetide


  • It’s clear the Avalanche are the better team, but for me the Oilers have contributed to the 3-0 status with dozens of poor plays around the puck, inconsistent goaltending and several miles of penalties. Woodcroft mentioned the penalty totals were out of balance in this series, suspect the organization will need to reflect on that over the summer. Sometimes not retaliating and not running a guy into the boards is the best tactic.
  • Jay Woodcroft’s decisions in this series have people questioning him for the first time since he arrived from Bakersfield. Several things he’s tried, or not tried, have the look of stubborn this morning. You’ll have to look long and hard to find a more zealous Nurse defender than this blog’s author, but placing Kulak with Ceci was the play here after Game One, and Woodcroft didn’t pull the trigger.
  • Ken Holland should take a little time this summer to hire an analytics department. The team could use help in pro scouting, this team will need an edge in the years to come when making trades. I’m not anti-Holland, the amateur scouts are rocking and credit to him for Kane, Cody Ceci, Zach Hyman and deadline acquisition Brett Kulak.
  • What the Oilers really need is someone to build a list of possible targets in free agency, trade and minor league acquisitions. Not every useful player costs two picks and $6 million. This team needs to get smart in the subtle pro procurements. Edmonton used to do that kind of thing, grab Steve Staios in free agency and plug him in for five years.

BLH’s Thoughts: Would you blame the Mahe brothers if they just up and said, “f*ck this place, we’re out!”? 

See, the Oilers do have an analytics department and it consists of those two gentlemen, yet, they’re the Rodney Dangerfields of the organization… No respect, I tell ya. 

Should the the organization EXPAND their analytics department? Sure! The more minds, the better, no? And there are about 50 guys in Edmonton alone that could do it too, but I feel that OEG undervalues their talents. Meaning, they lowball them so badly, it turns them off of being a fan of the team. 

Now, that being said, this team is at the point in its development where the core is in place but smart money/assets need to be utilized to cover the complimentary pieces. I’m talking bottom six forwards and bottom four dmen and so my question is, do the Oilers need to double or triple the amount of people working with the Mahe brothers to accomplish that? 

I don’t believe the lack of a larger analytics department is the reason the Oilers are down three games to none in this series, but I’d be willing to bet there are some loud voices on line that do share that sentiment… 

So what do the Oilers do tonight? In games one to three, I didn’t have a good feeling about them getting the win, but I like their odds tonight. I think Kadri being out hurts the Avs more than Kane being out hurts the Oilers. I remember seeing Josh Manson getting dinged up last time out and Colorado is already without Burakovsky and Kuemper. Also, didn’t Bouchard kill another Av with his shot in game three?

My point is, MacKinnon’s boys are hurting and they’re under a lot of pressure to get this series over and done with so that they can rest and be ready for the Lightning or the Rangers. Colorado can’t let their grip on this series loosen while at the same time Connor McDavid can flip the script at any point here. Relative to the Calgary series, he’s been quiet so far and usually that lasts no more than a two games before be breaks out and wrecks a team on his own. 

Let’s be clear though, I don’t think Edmonton has the soldiers to take four in a row off of the Avalanche, but could they find a way to get one more game in Edmonton before it’s all done and dusted? I think there’s a chance they could do that.


Oilersnation


Edmonton Oilers to terminate contract of goaltender Ilya Konovalov
  • Edmonton Oilers goaltender Ilya Konovalov will have his contract terminated by the team so he can sign a deal in the KHL…
  • Konovalov is set to sign a deal with the KHL’s Dynamo Moscow, club general manager Alexi Sopin told championat.com.
  • With the Condors, he posted a 5-7-5 record, a 2.73 GAA and a .893 save percentage.

BLH’s Thoughts: So much for that little experiment. I remember wondering what the Oilers were going to do with their goaltending at the AHL level seeing as all the goalies there were pretty young, right? Then you tack on the fact that Mikko Koskinen is heading to Switzerland next season and there’s some uncertainty as to who Stu Skinner will be sharing the pipes with next season. I was, and still am, of the opinion that Ken Holland would need to sign a good AHL tweener to mentor Fanti and Rodrigues in addition to being able to be a capable backup in case one of Edmonton’s NHL netminders gets banged up. 

https://twitter.com/BeerLeagueHeroe/status/1532935621248811009


Trade Rumors


Spector’s Hockey
  • Elliotte Friedman reports the Chicago Blackhawks could be a team to watch over the next few weeks in the trade market.
  • Kevin Kurz recently mused over what it might cost the New York Islanders to make a pitch for Kevin Fiala.
    • Kurz believes any potential trade for Fiala would have to start with the Isles’ first-round pick in either this year’s draft or next year’s.
    • …suggested Oliver Wahlstrom as an alternative.
    • If the Islanders don’t want to part with their first-round pick, perhaps a prospect such as Aatu Raty might push the deal over the finish line.
  • Jimmy Murphy recently reported Joel Armia’s performance for Finland in the World Championships has generated some trade buzz about the Canadiens winger.
    • Murphy also wondered if Ethan Bear might be a fit with the Canadiens. The 24-year-old Carolina Hurricanes defenseman is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this summer.
    • Murphy’s source cited Bear’s conditioning as an issue, which could hurt his trade value.

BLH’s Thoughts: Interesting… So that’s TWO clubs now where rumors of Bear’s lack of attention to his conditioning have cost him… Will a third team take a chance? He did have surgery on his foot I believe right after the Hurricanes were knocked out of the playoffs but he was out of Carolina’s lineup since the end of April. So why didn’t he have the surgery earlier if his injury required going under the knife? That would’ve explained being out of lineup for so long… 

It doesn’t matter. That trade is a wash to a degree (although I would still give Edmonton the nod considering Foegele actually got to play in the post-season). The Canes saw all they wanted of Bear and Foegele disappeared down the stretch never to be seen again. The feeling I get is that he’ll be moved this summer too as there was interest in him leading up to the deadline. 

Watch, McLovin’ will score a brace tonight and help stave off elimination for the Oilers… 

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Edmonton Oilers Playoff Talk: It’s Time to Swing for the Fences

This is your TL/DR (too long, didn’t read) summary post where excerpts are taken from the best of the best when it comes to Edmonton Oilers blogs. BLH gives you his two cents on the latest posts being published in the Oilogosphere! Including those from Lowetide.ca, The Athletic, Oilersnation, The Cult of Hockey, Copper N Blue, Oil on Whyte, and more!

The latest NHL news, rumors, and speculation comes from all of the internet’s top sites like Spector’s Hockey, The Fourth Period, NHL Trade Talk, The Hockey Writers, and The Daily Goal Horn just to name a few!

If you’re short on time but want to keep up with the day’s Oilers news, you’ve come to the right place!

Give us a follow on the socials!

Lowetide


  • If Yamamoto is hurt, one would think Dylan Holloway makes his NHL debut. If the Oilers go 7D, one of Russell or Broberg will draw in. I could also see Yamamoto out and a D added being the only move, but Holloway is available and has the kind of speed that will set the Avalanche back on their heels. Great passer too.

BLH’s Thoughts: Bob Stauffer has been on the Holloway train for a while now and yesterday former Edmonton Oilers dman Jason Strudwick hopped on. Strudwick made the point that if you’re going to adjust the roster, you’re not making it slower and therefore the likes of Dylan Holloway and Philly Broberg should be inserted. 

My feeling is that this is the game to take the big swing on the kids. At worst, it doesn’t work out and the coaches can go back to what’s worked for them in the past. At best, the kids save the day and inject some life and excitement into an organization that seems defeated. 

In previous series’ I think there might’ve been a hesitancy to play Holloway and Broberg partly because of the physical intensity that LA and Calgary brought. I mean Milan Lucic ate Broberg for lunch a few times this year, right? But against Colorado, I am confident in saying the Avs won’t be taking the series to the trenches and in my opinion, that works to Edmonton’s advantage now that we’ve realized going after Joe Sakic’s boys through intimidation is a futile effort. 

If there’s space to move, you’d think Broberg and Holloway might be a tad better than Shore or Russell. Worried about blocking shots? Broberg and Holloway are high character players, they’ll do what’s necessary to get the job done. 

Like I said, it’s best to take a gamble right now and hope to high hell it’s enough to get Edmonton back into this series. 


Sportsnet


Oilers need a healthy, in-form Darnell Nurse to salvage series vs. Avalanche
  • The most important caveat here is that let’s be honest, the man is hurt. When asked about him after Game 2, Jay Woodcroft basically shrugged and said “He’s giving us all he can. He’s a warrior.”
  • I often just see him a few inches on the wrong side of guys I feel like he’d normally be able to snuff out. He’s chasing.
  • Nurse has been handed a brutal assignment, spending most of his time on the ice against Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog, approaching nearly 20 minutes of ice against each guy. You would expect his stats to take some abuse with that.
  • So the point here isn’t that Nurse has let his team down, it’s looking for a way for Edmonton to get back in this series, and finding that the D-man that’s the Oilers time-on-ice leader at even strength is getting pummeled in his minutes.
  • …there’s three things can happen now for the Oilers:
    • Nurse finds a way to play better and they have a chance.
    • The Oilers find a way to ease the workload/competition level for him, others step up, and they have a chance.
    • Nothing changes and they lose.

BLH’s Thoughts: As I was saying above, if you’re going to take a chance with a big roster move, tonight’s the night. Win and there’s a chance the Oilers can tie up the series. Lose and nobody’s going to be surprised, but something has to be done. Loading up the to line didn’t work in game one and having 29 and 97 center their own lines in game two didn’t have the desired impact either. 

So It’s time to swap Darnell with Kulak and muck around with the forwards a bit. 

Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl
Hyman-RNH-Pulju
Foegele-McLeod-Ryan
Archibald-Holloway

Kulak-Ceci
Keith-Bouchard
Nurse-Barrie
Broberg

With a number of players Woodcroft could adjust his lines based on who’s skating well, right? If the kids are having a positive impact they could be moved up the lineup. Who knows? You could have Broberg paired up with Bouchard or Ceci and Holloway playing with Connor or Leon by the 3rd. 

I don’t feel good about Edmonton’s chances without Nurse and Leon at 100% and this evening’s game is no different even if Woodcroft does put Holloway and Broberg in and plays them regularly. Colorado has stopped the offensive juggernaut that is the Oilers right in its track with no response from Edmonton… 

I hope for the best, but honestly, I’m expecting the worst. 


Trade Rumors


Spector’s Hockey
  • Mike Zeisberger reports Winnipeg Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff expects Mark Scheifele will return with the club next season.
  • In his latest “32 Thoughts” podcast, Elliotte Friedman reported re-signing with the Carolina Hurricanes remains an option for Vincent Trocheck.
  • Sammi Silber observed the Capitals could get some cap relief for next season by placing Backstrom and Wilson on long-term injury reserve… If Backstrom were to miss significant time, Silber pondered whether Colorado’s Nazem Kadri would be a good fit if he becomes available on the free-agent market.
The Daily Goal Horn
  • According to TFP’s David Pagnotta, two former NHL head coaches that Vegas is believed to have interest in, at least internally, is former Winnipeg Jets bench boss Paul Maurice and former Arizona Coyotes coach Rick Tocchet, who is currently an Analyst for TNT.
  • There’s been a lot of talk that Carey Price may be unable to go for next season, but until the Canadiens can get that clarification it will be hard to make any big moves.
NHLRumors.com
  • There was a report (in Russian) on Sportexpress by reporter Ivan Bogun that the Montreal Canadiens and Philadelphia Flyers have decided to not select any Russian players in the 2022 NHL Draft.
  • GM Armstrong on if forward Vladimir Tarasenko will be back with the team next season: “I’m not concerned about Vladi for next year at all.”
  • The Calgary Flames have said they will do all they can to re-sign pending UFA Johnny Gaudreau but if they can’t, could the New York Islanders have a chance? Slim, but not impossible.
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Edmonton Oilers Playoff Talk: “There’s no way Archibald should have outplayed Puljujarvi…”

This is your TL/DR (too long, didn’t read) summary post where excerpts are taken from the best of the best when it comes to Edmonton Oilers blogs. BLH gives you his two cents on the latest posts being published in the Oilogosphere! Including those from Lowetide.ca, The Athletic, Oilersnation, The Cult of Hockey, Copper N Blue, Oil on Whyte, and more!

The latest NHL news, rumors, and speculation comes from all of the internet’s top sites like Spector’s Hockey, The Fourth Period, NHL Trade Talk, The Hockey Writers, and The Daily Goal Horn just to name a few!

If you’re short on time but want to keep up with the day’s Oilers news, you’ve come to the right place!

Give us a follow on the socials!

Lowetide


  • Darnell Nurse is hurt, to the point where Jay Woodcroft is going to need to move him down the depth chart. Brett Kulak can move up, he’s not as physical but he can fly. Edmonton needs speed against the top lines.
  • The Oilers got screwed by the offside call last night. It was a ridiculous call. You are allowed to be angry about it. You can also look forward to a make-up call later in the series.
  • The Oilers can win this series. The club needs to tighten up, and find out if Mike Smith’s fever streak is over, but this team can outscore damn near anything.

BLH’s Thoughts: Is it me or did the day after game one of the Calgary series sound just like this sans the goal controversy? I think in that game everyone was mad because Tkachuk got to come out of the box, not Kylington, after a post-whistle scrum and he went ahead and scored a key goal. 

I feel like Woodcroft takes a game to get a feel for the other team and the drops the hammer like Ivan Drago’s trainer in Rocky 4. He’s done it in the two previous series and it wouldn’t shock me at all if tonight’s game looked very different. 

The Oilers aren’t going to get a make-up call later in the series that will have the same levity as that Makar call in game one. That was the hockey gods or the Peterborough Mafia or the league evening things up from that Blake Coleman goal that was called back in game five vs. the Flames. The men (man) in charge decided that they were going to call the letter of the law for once instead of going with the spirit of it. It will come back and bite them in the ass now that everybody knows you don’t need to have textbook “possession” of the puck when crossing the blue line in the event that you’ve got a teammate in an offside position. As long as he tags up, all is good. Watch now, there will be set plays built of of this. It would’ve been better for the league to own up to the bad call and say they made a mistake… 

Oilers fans and media need to stop dissecting the play, stop complaining (good luck), and move on. Edmonton got their call against Calgary and now they’re the victims of a call against them. It happens.

As for Nurse, I distinctly remember him coming back in game two against Calgary and him being very good. I wouldn’t expect anything less tonight. 

With regards to curtailing Nurse’s TOI and giving it to Kulak. I fully support that idea. I’d rather have Darnell play very good in the limited minutes he’s given than him get beat time and time again because the coaching staff feels what he can give is better than anybody else on the roster. The fact of the matter is, his upper body is compromised and his whole game and what he does well requires the use of said upper body. Bob Stauffer has intimated that it’s something that will require surgery in the off-season and if that’s really the case, it’s time to elevate others like Kulak. 

Would I sit Nurse and go 11-7, I don’t know. I’m not 100% certain that Philip Broberg or Kris Russell would be any better than a banged up Darnell. Philly would be able to keep up with the Avs quick skaters and he’s big enough to handle them but he’s still very green and there’d be brain farts. Rusty will block a ton of shots and hit dudes, but the wingers would have to get ready for a steady diet of passes off the glass. 

Now, it is only game two, so if there’s a time to experiment, it’s probably now before the series gets out of hand. 

One has to wonder if there’s an opportunity to stifle Colorado’s zone entries by inserting Markus Niemelainen? If you let the Avs walk right into your house without ringing the doorbell first, they’re going to drink your beer, hide your TV remote, piss all over the toilet seat, and leave the fridge open all whilst tracking their muddy feet everywhere. Maybe it’s time to add a watch dog to the family home. 

All I know is that each time the Oilers have gotten shellacked, they’ve come back stronger than ever and the Avalanche are ripe for payback. I expect Edmonton to win tonight but there’s a part of me that is saying the Avs to way too good too… 

In Woody I trust. 


The Athletic


Why the Oilers should play Dylan Holloway against the Avalanche
  • There’s no indication the Oilers will do it. In fact, I’ve been told it won’t happen two different times during the playoffs.
  • …he could do no worse than the fourth-line wing options that continue to be trotted out there, namely Josh Archibald.
  • …they could use the influx of pace lower down in the lineup against the Avalanche, even though the coach might disagree.
  • The Oilers aren’t likely to be able to dictate the terms of the game on their opponent this time, at least the way they’re constructed now.
  • The shame about the situation is that Holloway would likely have been a regular by now had he not been hampered by two injuries.
  • …no one can know for sure what he can bring to the ice at the NHL level. That it’s the playoffs now only heightens those concerns.
  • Barring a change in philosophy, I’m told there would need to be multiple injuries before the Oilers considered inserting Holloway into the lineup for a playoff game.
  • The Oilers need a boost. Between Holloway, Brassard, Devin Shore and Brad Malone, I know who I’d look to change the mix up front.
  • Though the fourth line finally scored a goal last night… It’s been outscored 6-1 in the postseason and also been caved in from a possession standpoint.
  • There’s no way Archibald should have outplayed Puljujarvi by 79 seconds at five-on-five in the series opener.
  • Archibald had the fourth-worst expected goals percentage (34 percent) on the team in Game 1, per Natural Stat Trick.

BLH’s Thoughts: Jesus… DNB should’ve titled this post, “Why I Hate Josh Archibald and How I Don’t Understand Roster Dynamics in the Post-Season.”

The reality of the situation is DNB hasn’t been a fan of Archibald for some time here and he’s been very much for the promotion of Dylan Holloway all year.

(Quotes are from a mail-bag article posted on 4/9/22)

  • “It’s hard to envision how he’s going to have an impactful role down the stretch and in the playoffs.” – DNB on Archibald

Yikes… Why was it hard to envision? Everybody knows what kind of player Josh Archibald is and what his importance to the team was (is). 

  • “…a team source told me recently that it’s very likely we’ll see Holloway get an audition with the big club before the end of the season.”

Probably time to get a new source… 

  • “…while Holloway playing for the Oilers is not set in stone, expect it to happen.”

Nailed another one! I’m probably being a tad harsh on DNB here because everybody in the business of breaking NHL news knows that anything can happen at any time and that things change all of the time. 

  • “The other thing I was told is Holloway would almost certainly start his Oilers career on the third line. The organization is trying to find that happy medium between not putting too much pressure on the 2020 first-round pick while putting him in a position to exhibit his skills and make an impact.”

So If that’s the case and it remains true, which 3rd liner should be sat for a rookie? 

I don’t know, I get why folks are asking for Holloway to come in at the expense of Josh Archibald, but at the same time I feel like nobody is pointing out anything substantial with regards to their belief that Archie is playing poor. Do you know what I mean? Nobody (that I’ve noticed) is posting clips of him turning the puck over and that mistake resulting in a goal against. I’ve not seen anybody online show me a specific example of Archibald hitting a guy and taking himself out of a play that ended with the puck in Edmonton’s net and that’s a huge problem. So at this point we’re just talking about +/- basically and I’m of the belief that the post-season is too small of a time frame to put a lot of importance in the publicly  available fancies anyhow. That leaves us with what to rely on? The eye-test? History?

Would I like to see a Holloway/McLeod/Puljujarvi line right now? Hell Yes! I think that would be dynamite and if everything pans out, maybe something we could expect next season! But with that, I’m disregarding the importance of Warren Foegele’s presence alongside Cloudy and Pulju as well as Archie and Kass’ role on the 4th line. We haven’t even mentioned Derek Ryan and how key he is when it comes to being a right-shot faceoff specialist. 

Quick one on Jesse. He’s my man, you know that, but at the same time when he gets the puck in stride, his feet stop moving. He’s at his best (right now) when the puck is down low or along the wall. I like that he’s hitting and blocking shots too, but on a line with McLeod and Foegele, he’s supposed to be the offensive presence and for whatever reason that monkey on his back is choking him out. I’m concerned. The club needs some point production from him and he’s not providing it but on the other hand, does he need to if while he’s on the ice everything is tilted in Edmonton’s favor?

Anyway… 

Bottom line, there are vets ahead of Holloway on the depth chart and the 4th line provides a certain style of play that the coaching staff values. Those that disagree with that only have to wait until the summer when Holland moves Kassian and Archibald signs in the US. That said, they may be disappointed when he brings in cheaper versions of them and forces Holloway and Broberg to earn their spot on the team. 


Trade Rumors


Spector’s Hockey
  • Sara Civian suggested Waddell explore the “elite goal scorer” market this summer. She pointed out the Hurricanes lacked a scorer in the top-20 this season despite being among the NHL’s best teams.
  • Jim Thomas reports Blues GM Doug Armstrong doesn’t believe his roster needs major changes… Armstrong acknowledged the salary cap will affect efforts to re-sign key UFAs David Perron, Ville Husso and Nick Leddy.
NHLRumors.com
  • “Every team that didn’t win the first round, that felt like they should’ve won the first round, has to be looking at a piece like J.T. Miller… Look at Florida. I’ve mentioned a couple of teams that didn’t get out of the first round but the Florida Panthers have to be reeling after getting swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning.” – Darren Dreger
  • Jimmy Murphy of Montreal Hockey NOW: Talk has been going on for some time but  Eric Girard has sparked speculation a Quebec franchise is at least being discussed.
  • Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun: Again, Pierre Dorion and the Ottawa Senators have been in the news. Would Dorion consider moving the seventh overall pick in this year’s draft?
The new NHL franchise in Seattle already has their AHL affiliate worked out! Click the pick and grab a Karen shirt today!

Edmonton Oilers Talk: Ken Holland Can Sign Anybody but Somebody Would Need to Go

This is your TL/DR (too long, didn’t read) summary post where excerpts are taken from the best of the best when it comes to Edmonton Oilers blogs. BLH gives you his two cents on the latest posts being published in the Oilogosphere! Including those from Lowetide.ca, The Athletic, Oilersnation, The Cult of Hockey, Copper N Blue, Oil on Whyte, and more!

The latest NHL news, rumors, and speculation comes from all of the internet’s top sites like Spector’s Hockey, The Fourth Period, NHL Trade Talk, The Hockey Writers, and The Daily Goal Horn just to name a few!

If you’re short on time but want to keep up with the day’s Oilers news, you’ve come to the right place!

Give us a follow on the socials!

Cult of Hockey


Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche both acquired star power via the draft, but built supporting casts differently
  • Lots of star power on  both teams, in keeping with the consistently high draft position both enjoyed throughout much of the 2010s.
    • Both teams subsequently acquired a franchise player with a first overall selection, the Avs nabbing Nathan MacKinnon in 2013 and the Oilers Connor McDavid 2 years later.
    • Each team currently includes 4 players selected in the top 4 of the draft, including superstars Leon Draisaitl drafted #3 by the Oilers in 2014 and Cale Makar at #4 by Colorado in 2017.
    • Both teams added a core piece or two a little lower in the top 10, with Darnell Nurse joining Edmonton’s blueline at #7 in 2013 and Evan Bouchard doing the same at #10 in 2018, while high-scoring Mikko Rantanen was nabbed by the Avs at #10 in 2015.
  • The UFA route has been a major pipeline for the Oilers and the source of some 40% of their playoff roster. Among them, major contributors like Mike Smith, Tyson BarrieCody CeciZach Hyman, and Evander Kane.
    • The Avs found one significant player when they signed Valeri Nichushkin, a younger free agent who had  not been qualified by the Stars in the summer of 2019.
    • The other two are long-in-the-tooth vets playing depth roles, although it’s hard to overlook Darren Helm’s series-winning goal in the dying seconds of Game 6 vs. the St. Louis Blues.
  • Another crafty manoeuvre by Avs GM Joe Sakic was the acquisition of Nicolas Aube-Kubel via the waiver wire.
  • Nearly half of Colorado’s playoff roster (11 of 23) have come to the team through this time-honoured route.
    • The list includes some key pieces including two-way star Nazem Kadri, first-pairing d-man Devon Toews, and oh yeah, starting goalie Darcy Kuemper.
    • Ken Holland has done some serious business in this area as well, notably the acquisition of “greybeard” Duncan Keith in a controversial deal with Chicago last off-season.
    • Holland did acquire a nice piece at the deadline in the form of defenceman Brett Kulak who has brought stability if not serenity to the previously problematic spot of 3LD.

BLH’s Thoughts: I’m very excited to watch this series but I’m not confident it’s going to be a long one. I could see one team or the other taking this one in four or five and actually, I feel the same about the TB/NYR series but with that one I think the Rangers will get eliminated. 

But just getting back to the EDM/COL series, Cale Makar had only three assists in the 2nd round after lighting NSH up for 10pts in the first round. Mikko Rantanen has to be dealing with an upper body issue because he’s only scored once in the playoffs so far and he’s averaging 2.4 shots a game with at a 4% success rate. However, Landeskog, MacKinnon, and Kadri are shooting very well with a much higher finishing rate. I mean, half of MacKinnon’s and Landeskog’s goals have come on the PP. So, the Oilers will have to be very cognizant of that trio when they have the puck in any scenario. That said, Valeri Nichushkin is an assassin that’s yet to heat up but it would be a massive mistake for Edmonton’s skaters to brush off the big Russian’s production rate to date (3g/7pts/10gp).

John Shannon said on Oilers Now yesterday that it’ll be the team that can stifle the speed of the other club that comes out of this one and to a degree I think that’s true, but, the Avs have face two really physical teams so far and you have to wonder how tender they’re feeling right now. Could they make it through another four, five, or six games against a team that is not only fast and skilled but also tough on the forecheck? 

I think this one’s gonna come down to which goalie screws up the least or stays healthier the longest if you ask me, but isn’t that kind of how it goes in any series?

As for tonight, Edmonton’s lost both game 1s so far this year. Would it shock you if they dropped another one?


Oilersnation


How the Edmonton Oilers can beat the Colorado Avalanche
  • Darcy Kuemper was one of the best goalies in the league this year posting a 37-12-4 record, a .921 save percentage and a 2.54 GAA… Come playoffs, however, there’s been a shift in the force, if you will. Kuemper’s numbers have plummeted…
  • But how can the Oilers take advantage of Kuemper? Traffic to the net. It’s a recipe that has worked for them so far in the playoffs. In all situations, the Oilers have scored 30 of their 52 goals from high danger areas, according to Natural Stat Trick.
  • Among eight goaltenders who have played over seven games in the playoffs, Kuemper’s .811 high danger save percentage is the worst.
  • The Avalanche arent giving up lots of looks inside during these playoffs, but when they are, Kuemper is struggling to stop them.
  • I think going big-on-big in this series, much like against Calgary, is the play. McDavid against MacKinnon hasn’t been favourable in Edmonton’s favour. The shot attempts and expected goals at 5×5 have swayed fairly heavily in Colorado’s favour when McDavid and MacKinnon are on the ice together, but balances a bit adjusting for score and venue.
  • It seems straightforward, but I’d also just go L3 vs. L3 as much as possible. Burakovsky-Compher-Aube-Kubel has done well controlling the shot attempt share at 5×5, but have gotten caved in on expected goals. Foegele and McLeod have some chemistry, while Puljujarvi will be a key shaker there too.
  • Toews-Makar is as solid as they come as a pairing. They control and push the pace of play exceptionally well, but have been outscored 2-5 in terms of high-danger goals.
  • Jack Johnson-Manson have struggled in these playoffs. Barely breaking even in terms of shot attempt share, but have been crushed in expected goals.
  • Defensively, the Oilers are going to need to play a tight game and take away Colorado’s speed. They love to play a fast game, and I think that plays into Edmonton’s favour.

BLH’s Thoughts: The downfall of hard attacking fast teams is that they’re susceptible to counter attacks. So which of these two clubs are going to commit to keeping a man high so that they don’t get caught going the other way? 

I do like the idea of getting in Kuemper’s grill though. He’s a fragile keeper… 

That pairing of Johnson and Manson look quite similar to Gudbranson and Zadorov and Zach Hyman ate them up. Imagine what McDavid could do flying down the Jack Johnson’s wing?… Byram is going to be a fantastic dman someday IF he can stay healthy. If I were the Oilers I’d target him physically as well as Makar because as I’ve said in the past, I don’t think he’s healthy. You take away Colorado’s movement from the back end and that means their big boys have to come back in and break out of their own end by themselves or rely on Kris Russell specials off the glass and I don’t think that will dovetail well with the Avs style of play. I suppose MacKinnon could try to go end-to-end all game long if he wanted though… 


Trade Rumors


Spector’s Hockey
  • Asked during a recent press conference about re-signing Kane, Oilers general manager Ken Holland said he can sign anybody but someone else would have to go.
  • Michael Russo and Harman Dayal recently examined the trade market for Kevin Fiala… Looking at recent trades involving comparable players such as Florida’s Sam Reinhart, Russo and Dayal believe the Wild’s asking price would involve a first-round pick and a quality prospect… Clubs with potential interest could include the Ottawa SenatorsNew Jersey DevilsPhiladelphia Flyers and New York Islanders.
  • Jonas Siegel and James Mirtle are uncertain over whether Jack Campbell and Jake Muzzin will return with the Toronto Maple Leafs next season.
    • Campbell loves playing in Toronto but the thin market for goaltenders this summer could make it difficult for the cap-strapped Leafs to outbid other clubs…
NHLRumors.com
  • The Vancouver Canucks are one of many teams that could use a right-handed defenseman. Though he may not be on the trade market just yet, if the Pittsburgh Penguins decide to make John Marino available to help save some money, the Canucks should be interested.
    • Brock Boeser and Conor Garland could be trade chips for the Canucks – if the Penguins are willing to take back salary.
  • “… I think there are a number of teams who are waiting for Barry Trotz to make his decision on what his future will be… I think Barry Trotz has let it be known to teams that he’s not in a hurray to make his choice… He’s spoken to Winnipeg. He’s spoken to Philly as Jeff reported. He’s spoken to Vegas. I believe he’s spoken to Detroit, and aslo believe he still going to speak to Dallas.” – Elliotte Friedman

BLH’s Thoughts: As it pertains to the Oilers re-signing Evander Kane, let’s say he wins big in the arbitration case and is willing to take a little less in exchange for term, Mikko Koskinen’s $4.5M is off the books this summer, throw that right at Kane with a sweetener on top and then shuffle some bodies around elsewhere. 

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Edmonton Oilers Playoff Talk: “We wanted to make sure that we were physical on offence.” – Woodcroft on Series Win vs. Calgary

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Lowetide


Very enjoyable article, and the conclusion of “everything is worth it when you win” really got me thinking about how, duh, obviously that’s right, but also… is it? If you trade Gretzky then win Stanley, did you do the right thing? I’m trying to apply ethical concepts to hockey, let’s see if this works. Instead of asking “what is the most moral action” we’re asking “what is the action most likely to result in winning?”

Consequentialist ethics are those that are focused on results. “The ends justifies the means” is very well know, as is “the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.” Different iterations of the same principle. These systems are easiest to use to justify actions that would be immoral under other systems.

Deontological ethics are those that are focused on following the correct rules, such as the Charter of Rights and Freedoms or the Categorical Imperative. These systems are the most likely to have ruinous consequences; if you do the right thing and the world burns as a result, you still did the right thing.

Stoicism teaches that you should not feel upset about things beyond your control. For sport, this means you can control your training, nutrition, effort, etc, but you cannot control whether you win or not, therefore, you should not care whether you win or not. https://existentialcomics.com/comic/179

Okay, all useful but flawed ideas. It occurs to me that a lot of back-and-forth between different hockey schools of thought parallels these ideas. So, reasonable, well-informed adults would be likely to view the following things in the following ways:

Resigning a streaky 40 year old goalie to be your starter for the next two years when you are in Win Now mode: A consequentialist is happy, because it worked out (so far, *does all the superstitious things*). A deontologist is losing their mind because the body of statistical evidence says this is a losing move. A stoic is only concerned with the choices they had, so they may see it not as “signing a risky goalie” but as “signing the least risky option available.”

That legendary whacky MacT draft pick trade. A consequentialist is unhappy, because it didn’t work. A deontologist may think the correct process was followed and that is what will lead to the best outcomes overall so we should be looking to do it again. A stoic might feel upset because they feel there were better choices we could have made, or might feel fine because how prospects work out is beyond our control, there is often room for disagreements even among reasonable adults with similar paradigms.

Drafting Conner McDavid. Some things are so obvious that they are clearly correct under every reasonable ethical system.

I think Consequentialism is over-represented in the media, who often, to my eye, blindly worship results without ever thinking about how those results were obtained, whether by blind fluke, true skill, heroic effort, foul cheating or zebra job.

I think Deontology is over-represented in the analytics community. Anyone remember the drunk baby meme captioned “So then Dallas says shots matter more than wins?”

I suspect Stoicism is over-represented in the “professional athlete” community. Conner McDavid is the best there is, and he has lost more hockey games than most humans will ever play. Professional athletes need a way to keep their self-image stable through good times and bad while enduring treatment that we would consider abusive if they were happening in other contexts (if I worked a horse as hard as Connor works himself, I would hopefully be shunned. If I posted the kind of personally judgmental comments that some fans regularly post about regular citizens, it would be cyber bullying at best. If I treated my coworkers the way that Brad Marchand does, I’d be in jail. Not judging, just observing that how we treat athletes is weird.)

BLH’s Thoughts: This a post from LT’s comments section from a user named Keeper_13 and I just found the breakdown very interesting and wanted to share it with you. Which category do you find yourself identifying with? Or maybe you feel like you fall into multiple categories depending on the scenario. Let us know in the comments below! Generally, I think I’m more stoic than the others.


Oilersnation


Woodcroft Discusses BOA, Holloway and More

Jay, you pushed a lot of the right buttons at times. Last night you mentioned you switched [Zach] Hyman and [Evander] Kane as it was to get a little bit of a jump in the top line, but also it was matchup related.

  • Yeah, I thought that he did a good job with Tkachuk and he had an effect on that player. And, for me I thought that we didn’t love the way that we started last night.
  • Hyman was displaying something in the first period that I thought he could help Draisaitl and McDavid and so we wanted to flip that.
  • Sometimes you know through experience and through just watching the game within the game, that leads to decisions like that and it worked out for us, so I’m pleased.

Zach Kassian only played two minutes last night, he also got rocked in the second period, he was very slow coming to the bench, was he banged up at all?

  • Zach gave us all that he had, his contribution was valuable to our team winning…
  • They dressed 11 forwards and seven D. They ended up only playing 10 forwards and so the way that the flow of that game went meant that we had to change our lines…
  • But you talk about a heck of a teammate, someone that gives the team everything that he has and he is a big reason why we are moving on to series number three.

What impressed you most about the execution you wanted to implement defensively against the Flames from your defenders that worked so well?

  • We’re a group back there that gets the job done by committee. By commitment to fundamentals in the way that we defend by keeping it simple on breakouts.

You were able to implement a system that took away one of Calgary’s strengths which was using their defencemen to activate. How did you do it, what worked to eliminate Calgary’s defencemen for much of it?

  • So the way that we want to handle our point man, whether it’s on the strong side or the weak side, there are details that go into that. We wanted to make sure that we were physical on offence.
  • We took a little steam out of their D men in their own end first of all, we didn’t want to get beat back up the ice on our rush coverage.
  • …their D coming down on pucks, there were just certain things that we wanted to do, counter pinch wise that was able to help us.

Having been with this group since February 10th, what impressed you most in the series win over Calgary?

  •  Well, in game number one, I thought the score was a little bit flattering. I was happy we came back, but I didn’t love our competition level on 50/50 pucks or our level of execution.
  • To see us go out and win game two against really tough circumstances, I was really proud of that.
  • We knew Calgary was going to have their moments, but we wanted to make sure we did it harder, and we did it longer, and when you steer the conversation towards your own process, I think that results take care of themselves.

What would be the thought process for you as the head coach to put a rookie like Dylan Holloway in the lineup for the next round?

  • I feel quite comfortable with Dylan, the same way that I feel comfortable with Brad Malone, Devin Shore, Derick Brassard, other people who are not currently in the lineup.
  • In terms of his availability to be put into the lineup, he is a healthy and available player that our coaching staff can puck if we so choose to.

BLH’s Thoughts: Good non-answer on Holloway. I think LT put it best last week when he was on Gregor’s show when he said at this point in time, the vets are going to get the calls and Edmonton has quite a few (Shore, Brassard, Turris, Malone, etc) sitting in the press box. 

That said, Holloway is much better than all of them, but with those young players you have to be willing to live with not only the energy and willingness to get the job done but also the rookie mistakes. Holloway probably belongs in this series with the Avs due to skill set alone, but Woodcroft might feel like the Avs are susceptible if he plays a more physical brand too. Personally, I wouldn’t have a problem if Holloway got in for Foegele in game one just to see how he does. However, I don’t believe that you’d bring in Dylan to be utilized like Kassian and Archie are. So, we’ll see but it appears Woodcroft is pretty tight-lipped on his prized rookie. 

I checked Colorado’s 2022 splits from this past year because I was looking for teams they struggled against and there were two teams they struggled with, the Dallas Stars and Columbus Blue Jackets. 

Toronto scored a ton against Colorado (12gf-8ga) though and in four games with Nashville the split the series but the goal differential was 16-16 and that has me thinking that if this series is going to be a defensive shit show, we’re going to be in for a ride AND it favours Edmonton.

The Flames thought with their first line (three 40g scorers) that they’d be able to keep pace with the Oilers and they should’ve but for whatever reason Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Lindholm were no-shows and it was probably Backlund, their top defensive forward, who was their best player. Will Edmonton’s top line be so good that it nullifies Landeskog, MacKinnon, and Rantanen leaving Kadri and Nichushkin to bear the scoring responsibilities? 

Speaking of Kadri, might Woodcroft match Evander Kane with him as he did Tkachuk in the Calgary series?

I’d heard Makar isn’t 100% and that was early in the 2nd round. If that’s the case, that’s a major blow to Colorado’s chances. 

I’m thinking Zach Hyman is going to have his way in the muck with whoever the Avs throw at him too. He made a mockery of Gudbranson and Zadorov in the 2nd round and Colorado most likely will have Jack Johnson and Josh Manson lining up against Hyman’s line.

Speaking of Hyman’s line, who will his center be? As we wait for the 3rd round to commence, Leon Draisaitl is getting healthier and if he can center his own line that will offer Jay Woocroft some more flexibility… 

Something that does worry me is Edmonton’s aversion to stopping zone entries sooner because of the speed Colorado has in their top six. I feel like Keith and Bouchard are going to get eaten alive whereas Kulak, Ceci, and Nurse should be able to break even in this aspect at least. I hope Barrie’s footspeed doesn’t let him down in this series. 

Lastly, I’ve been very impressed with this group’s decision to commit to playing playoff hockey. I’m talking about great defensive play, hitting, blocking shots, and basically just doing whatever it takes to get the job done. My boy Pulju is a shining example of one guy who’s accepted a role that’s not native to his skillset, but he’s out there crushing guys and taking pucks to the ankle and this is something the hockey gods love. So what did they do to reward him? Gave him a nice juicy blue paint goal to help send Calgary to the brink of elimination. 

I don’t know if I see seven games here, but nevertheless, we will be entertained. 


Trade Rumors


Spector’s Hockey
  • Steve Mcfarlane reports Gaudreau sounded like he’d very much like to remain with the Flames during his end-of-season press conference on Saturday.
  • Wes Gilbertson and Daniel Austin report Tkachuk is open to a long-term deal with the Flames.
  • SPECTOR’S NOTE: The cost of re-signing Gaudreau and Tkachuk will take a big chunk out of their salary-cap payroll for years. It could end up costing a combined $20 million to keep them in the fold.
  • Nick Goss believes the Bruins’ top-three offseason priorities are finding a top-six center, adding a scoring winger and bringing more young players into their lineup.
  • Jimmy Murphy wondered if the Bruins will consider moving blueliner Brandon Carlo in a deal for a top-six center.
  • Jeff Marek examined the possible contract comparables for Andrew Copp.

The Daily Goal Horn

  • So with Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe’s extensions kicking in next season, Florida has just under $4 million in cap space to get better. It has sparked rumors that the Panthers will be looking hard to gain more room this summer.
    • According to Elliotte Friedman on his latest 32 Thoughts Podcast, he mentioned that the Florida Panthers, in desperate need for cap space looked into trading Bobrovsky.
  • Darren Dreger of TSN is indicating that the Habs are very close to announcing a contract extension for Martin St. Louis.
  • Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang are both slated for unrestricted free agency on July 13. A recent report said that Pittsburgh offered them a 3 year-deal worth $5M AAV each. Both considered the offer to be too low.
  • The Philadelphia Flyers are searching for a new coach after letting Mike Yeo go. Reports indicate they will be meeting with Barry Trotz this week, but Tortorella rumors are now surfacing.

BLH’s Thoughts: That is right up Holland’s alley and with Koskinen leaving for Switzerland this summer, that’ll open up over $4M. The Oilers will still have to get creative but if Dutch is happy to go into 2022/23 with Skinner and Smith as his goaltending tandem, that will negate the need to spend big on a no.1 goalie and he could use that scratch to re-sign Kane.

Maybe Foegele gets moved and it’s my understanding that they’ll try to get Kassian’s situation worked out this summer too because they can’t have him playing a handful of minutes a night on the 4th line. That said, I do think they’ll bring in some affordable muscle. 

Do you think the Oilers will sign a good AHL goalie though? I ask that because I’m not certain that Konovalov, Fanti, or Rodrigues would be good enough to play at the NHL level in a scenario where one of Skinner or Smith get hurt.

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