Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors

Edmonton Oilers Talk: DNB’s Anti-Keith Article, BLH’s Most Anticipated Oilers Games, and the Latest NHL Rumors

October 3, 2021 Beer League Hero

This is your TL/DR (too long, didn’t read) summary post where excerpts are taken from the best of the best when it comes to Edmonton Oilers blogs. BLH gives you his two cents on the latest posts being published in the Oilogosphere! Including those from Lowetide.ca, The Athletic, Oilersnation, The Cult of Hockey, Copper N Blue, Oil on Whyte, and more!

The latest NHL news, rumors, and speculation comes from all of the internet’s top sites like Spector’s Hockey, The Fourth Period, NHL Trade Talk, The Hockey Writers, Sportsnet, and TSN just to name a few!

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The Athletic

Duncan Keith’s decline, by the numbers and video: Can the 38-year-old defenceman rebound with the Oilers?

There’s good reason to be skeptical that Keith can bounce back.

BLH’s Thoughts: What kind of expectations does one have when they say, “There’s good reason to be skeptical that Keith can bounce back.”? I mean, are they saying it’s foolish to think that he can come in and be his old Norris Trophy version? If so, I agree, I think there is a good reason to believe that and that reason is HE’S 38 YEARS OLD! You don’t need video and a bloody 10 page report filled with analytics visuals to figure that out.

So the question should be, what’s a reasonable expectation for Duncan Keith considering all the pertinent factors?

Detecting a defender’s decline can be tricky on the surface. Even if his scoring does decrease, absorbing key minutes and racking up blocks can give the impression that he’s still capable in his role.
First, after dips in play, he’s generally rebounded over the next couple of seasons. Second, and most importantly, there’s been a noticeable decline since 2014. That drop-off has been particularly concerning since 2018.
According to Luszczyszyn’s model, he’s expected to be a replacement-level defender over the next few seasons.

BLH’s Thoughts: God forbid we disagree with the Great Dom Luszcyszyn’s “model”. Imagine if it were ever wrong? How lost the hockey world would be in that scenario…

I’ve not heard one person, for or against Keith, say that they expect him to play like a 25 year old. Everybody has realistic expectations for this player but at the same time, he’s played on some shit rosters and has had to carry the defense for quite a few of the recent ones as the Blackhawks have been transitioning the roster.

What I’m a little surprised with in this article is why Nugent-Bowman never looked at Keith’s oft-used comparison, Chris Chelios, and gave us a glimpse into what his analytics looked like using the same age-frame. I mean, there were ZERO historical comps used to show the reader what kind of potential Duncan Keith could tap into.

It’s as if DNB is saying that Keith has no chance of being a success in Edmonton whilst willfully ignoring the scores of defenders in the NHL’s history that have been good top-4 defensemen going into their 40s.

Here’s a list of defensemen who had pretty good seasons as 38 year olds,

Teppo Numinen (2006-07) – 29pts

Rob Blake (2007-08) – 31pts

Larry Murphy (1999-00) – 40pts

Ray Bourque (1998-99) – 57pts

Nik Lidstrom (2008-09) – 59pts

Now, one thing nobody is talking about is how many games we should expect Keith to play and I get why it’s not a point of conversation, he’s kept himself in remarkable shape. My thinking is that after looking at that list, there are very few names who played a full season on it and the Oilers should be prepared to have a capable defender to spot check on the 2nd pair in the event that Keith can’t go.

The counterargument to this is that less stress — playing behind Darnell Nurse on what should be a better team — will make a world of difference.

“His advanced numbers weren’t as good as they could have been or should have been, but he was playing with a couple guys who probably shouldn’t have been playing in the league,” a Western-based NHL scout says.

…the Oilers could try to bring back his former offensive impact by playing him in favourable minutes with their best forwards, as Chicago did with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat last season. He’s only a year removed from playing at a 37-point pace.
Cleaning up his transition game, particularly his breakouts, could also boost Keith’s offence within the Oilers’ rush-based style.
Where Keith primarily needs to improve is on the back end, especially considering the potential instability of the Oilers’ goalie tandem.
The coaches can also put Keith in a better position to succeed by keeping him out of leading minutes.
It’s possible Keith can be a capable depth defender in a lesser role and with a better partner than years past. But his skill isn’t the sole reason he was brought to Edmonton; his intangible qualities and pedigree matter to an Oilers team that has championship hopes.
Adding leadership from a proven winner like Keith has its importance, but it came at a steep cost in the acquisition price.
The data and video paint a different picture than the reputation and those with a loaded interest in Keith succeeding, but the situation is different enough that only time will tell.

BLH’s Thoughts: Using a handful of visuals and TWO video clips can tell you what he’s done (to the most minimal of degrees) but it’s not a good way to represent what Duncan Keith is capable of.

All the Oilers have to do with this defenseman is to tell him to go out and play his game. He’s been around long enough that he’ll be able to make adjustments on his own so as to prevent the coaching staff from having to treat him with kid’s gloves and said coaching staff will be able to move things around him so as to keep him in his “zone of success”.

This article was pretty one-sided and that disappoints me, but if you needed more ammo for argument against the Oilers bringing in a 3-time Stanley Cup champion, it’s all here for a surface level debate.

I’m not surprised with the tone of this piece though. It seems to me that DNB has entrenched himself into the anti-Holland crowd since Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones were dealt and that’s a shame because in the past I’ve enjoyed his articles. His content is slanted now though…

Daniel Nugent-Bowman had no intention of showing how Duncan Keith could bounce back this year because he didn’t want to or he couldn’t because he didn’t know how which is pretty damning considering the resources he has at his disposal.

Well, the die have been cast and if the former Norris Trophy winner upstages everybody and has himself even an average year, there will be a lot of journalists and bloggers with egg on their face.

Just imagine if Keith has a good year…

The Hockey Writers

10 Oilers’ Must-Watch Games in 2021-22

Oct. 13 vs. Vancouver Canucks

This happens to also be the Oilers’ home opener, and the team will be playing in front of a packed arena… Last season, these teams played in 10 games. The Oilers took the season series, winning six of the games, but dropping two of the final three.

Oct. 16 vs. Calgary Flames

After a long-awaited return, fans should be filling the arenas, home and away, for the Battle of Alberta that should prove to be exciting hockey to watch. To make it even better for Oilers fans, the game is at home, so the team will have the support of the fans.

Nov. 1 vs. Seattle Kraken

This will be the first time Adam Larsson will be on the other side of the ice from the team since being selected and signing with the Kraken. We will have to keep an eye on how his play translates to the Kraken’s roster. The other former Oiler in the team is Jordan Eberle, one of the highlights of the players Seattle selected.

Nov. 16 at Winnipeg Jets

This is the first time the Oilers will be returning to Winnipeg for a game that matters since being swept by them in the first round of the 2020-21 playoffs…

Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

This is always a highly anticipated matchup when two of the faces of hockey over the past decade and a half, Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid, face off. Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Oilers for the one and only game in Edmonton between the clubs in 2021-22.

BLH’s Thoughts: The games I’m looking forward to are the following,

Dec.11th vs. Carolina – Ethan Bear’s Return!

Feb.22nd vs. Tampa Bay – How do these Oilers stack up against the Champs?

Mar.21st vs. Colorado – Edmonton’s main Stanley Cup rivals in the Western Conference.

Spector’s Hockey

BOSTON HOCKEY NOW: Jimmy Murphy recently reported Charlie McAvoy is putting his focus on this season but the 23-year-old Bruins defenseman knows he’s got a big payday coming. A restricted free agent with arbitration rights next summer, he’s in the final season of a three-year deal with an annual average value of $4.9 million.

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH: Brian Hedger recently reported Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Joonas Korpisalo claims he’s not bothered by the club signing teammate and fellow netminder Elvis Merzlikins to a long-term extension… The two goaltenders maintain a good relationship but Hedger feels Korpisalo’s days with the Jackets are numbered.

The new NHL franchise in Seattle already has their AHL affiliate worked out! Click the pick and grab a Karen shirt today!

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors

Edmonton Oilers Talk: How Many Points Do You Think Puljujarvi Can Get in 2021-22?

October 2, 2021 Beer League Hero

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Sportsnet

Keith ready to put vaccine narrative behind him, focus on improving Oilers

Let’s be clear about this: Keith did not want to get this vaccine. That’s who he is, what he believes.
At 38 years old, Keith is a reputed health freak. His body is a temple, so careful is Keith about what he eats and what medicine or vitamins he ingests.
As such, in 16 NHL seasons spent mostly as a top pairing, 20-plus minute defenceman in Chicago, Keith has only missed more than five games in a season three times.
…now that he is a fully vaccinated member of the Oilers may his play dictate the ongoing conversation around Duncan Keith…
If Keith steps in and gives Holland a stable second pairing, consistently delivers pucks to Leon Draisaitl in stride and helps Darnell Nurse become the Alpha dog of this defensive corps that he is clearly scheduled to be, then it’s all money well spent.
And if his on-ice play and off-ice experience help the Oilers crack the glass ceiling that has been the post-season, well, missing a week of training camp likely won’t matter much….Or the reason why he missed it.

BLH’s Thoughts: I talked about this this morning. Keith’s done what a good teammate, leader, and human does. He put the well-being of others ahead of his own wishes and beliefs and he deserves some respect for that. He could’ve put Ken Holland in one helluva pickle had he decided to go another route…

Oilersnation

About Jesse…

I was listening to TSN 1260’s Dustin Nielson talking about Puljujarvi on his show, projecting how many points he might get this season. While Nielson wasn’t willing to go with 70 points, he said 60 seemed realistic. Jesse’s career high, 25, came in 55 games last season.
Paul Almeida of @AzorcanGlobal posted a Twitter poll asking who’d compile the most points this season. He listed Puljujarvi, Matt Tkachuk of Calgary, who put up 77 points in 2018-19, Pierre-Luc Dubois of Winnipeg, who potted 64 with Columbus a few years ago, and Vancouver’s Brock Boeser, who had seasons of 55 and 56 points back-to-back.
I’m not convinced Puljujarvi is ready to put up 60 points or outscore Tkachuk, even playing wing with McDavid and getting some more power play time, just yet, but the possibility he could push a 60-point pace isn’t the knee-slapper it would have been 24 months ago.
Puljujarvi still needs to show better finish around the net, but he’s spending more time there and there’s no question he’s going to get his chances playing alongside McDavid.

“There’s definitely another gear he can get to,” McDavid said. “He’s such a big, powerful man, and as you play more games you start to figure the game out a little better, you start to understand where the danger spots are on the ice and how you can get lost. There’s definitely a thinking side to the game where Jesse can take another step. That will come with time.”

BLH’s Thoughts: To think that Jesse is a finished product right now is simply being naive, but I also think it’s equally overly-optimistic to think that he’s poised for a 60 or 70pt campaign. He might get there someday, however, I think this season 50pts is the high mark that we should expect.

Last season his PPG was .45, therefore my prediction is that he’ll finish the year between 40pts and 50pts IF he plays a full 82 games because I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that his PPG metrics go up to .55 considering his age and early viewings this preseason.

The Hockey Writers (Rumors)

It appears the Canucks are extremely close to finalizing deals for RFAs Pettersson and Hughes and while both contracts haven’t been officially announced, the terms of the deal are known… As per Satiar Shah of Sportsnet 650: “Hearing Hughes nearing a 6-year deal worth slightly above $7.75M per year with the Canucks.” Puck Pedia: “A reported 6 yr deal for Quinn Hughes would cover 1 UFA year (similar to Makar).”

According to Rob Simpson of Vancouver Hockey Now, the Canucks have been shopping defenseman Travis Hamonic ahead of today’s opt-out deadline. With chatter that he’s keener to play in a U.S. market out east and avoid all of the travel restrictions that come with being on a Canadian team this season, it’s still not clear if that is actually the case.

It was reported this week that the Canadiens offered Bergevin a contract extension, one he has yet to accept. As per Eric Engels of Sportsnet, Bergevin holds the leverage as he enters the final year of his contract and his intentions seem to be to use every bit of that leverage to get the deal he wants. Engels suggests that if his asking price isn’t met, he could be willing to walk.

As per Dan Rosen of NHL.com, Vladimir Tarasenko could remain with the St. Louis Blues for most, if not all of this season if they are a playoff contender. Should they not be in the hunt, expect the team to look at moving the forward ahead of the March 21st trade deadline.

The Maple Leafs and head coach Sheldon Keefe agreed on a two-year contract extension on Thursday. Most insiders are noting this is a contract he’s earned because he’s yet to coach a full 82-game season with this team… LeBrun writes: “They believe in him, but it’s a prove-me contract at two years, no five,” LeBrun said on Insider Trading.

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors