Sweet Jesus… That game last night… I nearly puked when Ehlers scored that OT winner. I was pacing all about my house in the extra frame but I think if we’re being honest with ourselves, we knew that the Winnipeg Jets were going to take it. You don’t simply come back from a 4-1 deficit to lose in overtime…

Credit to Winnipeg though. They found a way to win and Edmonton found a way to lose. Simple as that.

As for tonight’s game, I will go on record and pick the Oilers to win. They’ve lost three on the trot before this year and replied with four wins in a row. Now, I’m not saying they’re going to come back and take this series, I just don’t think that they’ll be laying down for anybody.

Should they be in the lineup, here are three players that I think you should keep an eye on for the Jets tonight,

• #27 Nik Ehlers – What a gamebreaker this guy is eh? Comes in to the series rusty and not even 100% and scores what might be one of the most important goals in Jets playoff history.
• #26 Blake Wheeler – I’ve loved his play all series. He’s been a bit of a ninja in the way he’s phased in and out of the play at just the right times. The Jets’ captain still has fantastic speed and a laser of a wrister.
• #81 Kyle Connor – He seems due for a good game soon. He’s had his chances but just hasn’t been able to capitalize. Personally, I hope he stays on the schneid :p

With regards to Edmonton, I’ll be watching these three individuals closely,

• #97 Connor McDavid and #29 Leon Draisaitl – I put these two together because I think they’re going to go supernova tonight. They both had three points last night and my feeling is that they’re going to do everything humanly possible to keep this team in the series. I’m expecting them both to play between 25 and 30 minutes tonight if the game is close.
• #93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Pointless and -3 in the series… When folks talk about Edmonton’s depth scoring I think most think they’re speaking to the 3rd and 4th lines but they’re really pointing at RNH and Yamamoto. Nuge MUST have himself a game tonight or else he’s going to get labelled a post-season choker. In 20 career posts-season games, he’s only scored TWO goals… Could you blame the team if they chose to let him walk this summer?

Oilers Notes

I don’t know about you, but I’m hoping to see another game out of The Flyweight Line (Ennis, Haas, Yamamoto). They gave the Jets’ defenders fits last night with the speed, aggression, and quickness.

If Coach Tippett could show his second line more trust instead of elevating the Khaira line, his team may just be able to hold onto the lead (should they get one).

Josh Archibald is going to sit tonight as he’s been suspended by the league and I believe the belief is that Alex Chiasson will draw back in. That’ll take a little bit of speed and bite out of the lineup but Chaser will bring his old-school brand of honest ice-hockey to the ice and a veteran’s touch might come in handy this evening.

It’s a shame things have gone as they have for the Oilers but it is what it is and now the pressure is squarely on the Jets to close this series off. Maybe this is exactly where Holland’s men need to be in order to get back in. Nobody believed they would finish 2nd in the division this year or last, right? Could it be that they’re more comfortable being the underdog?

It’ll be a long off-season for Edmonton if they shit the bed tonight.

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Final 4 teams and their "5v5 Goal share with best player off" for the last 5 years:

2020
TBY 53.2 – Cup winner
DAL 51.4 – Cup finalist
VGK 47.4
NYI 47.0

2019
BOS – 52.6 – Cup finalist
SJS – 50.2
STL – 48.8 – Cup winner
CAR – 47.1

(1/

— Woodguy (@Woodguy55) May 24, 2021

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The Edmonton Oilers have not lost back-to-back games since since mid-March when the dropped two-in-a-row to the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames. They subsequently followed those losses up with three wins on trot vs. Calgary and Winnipeg outscoring the opposition 13-6.

Prior to that, the Oilers worst losing streak was the three losses to Toronto. Do you remember how they responded to that? If you said a four-game winning streak, you’re right!

So, that’s the mindset I’m taking into tonight’s game.

A lot of folks are under the impression that the sky is falling and to speak to their fears, Edmonton isn’t in a good place but they’re not out of it by any means. If you remember, in 1990, the Jets were up 3-1 in the series and halfway through game five they were winning 3-1 as well. Everything looked rosy for Dale Hawerchuck and his boys but we all know how that series ended up…

 

Should they be in the lineup, here are three players that I think you should keep an eye on for the Jets tonight,

• #64 Logan Stanley – He’s been the kryptonite to Edmonton’s offense. His stickwork has been outstanding to date and he’s a massive unit which makes it very difficult for the Oilers’ forwards to get anywhere near Winnipeg’s net for a scoring chance. Plus, Edmonton doesn’t have anybody big enough to simply bulldoze the guy out of the way and I reckon Stanley knows this…
• #13 P.L. Dubois – Wasn’t noticeable at all in game two, but he’d been out a little while. Now that he’s back and has had a game to get sorted, I’m curious to see how the rest of his series goes. He’s got a Mark Messier-like toolkit when he’s on his game…
• #37 Connor Hellebuyck – Did this guy find out what Corey Crawford was drinking in the bubble last year or what? How in the world does a netminder shit the bed against one team all year and then all of a sudden flip the switch at a moment’s notice like this? I’ll be watching him all series until he either reverts to his old form or keeps it going because this kind of form is the kind that drags a team to a Stanley Cup…

With regards to Edmonton, If they’re in the lineup, I’ll be watching these three individuals closely,

• #74 Ethan Bear – Bear’s been decent this year. At times the forecheck has gotten to him but nothing like last year. Tippett’s also moved him up the lineup a few times in critical moments, so that’s a good sign. There’s more to give there though and that’s what I’m waiting to see.
• #22 Tyson Barrie – The NHL’s highest scoring defenseman has nothing to show as we hit the third game of the playoffs. WPG’s aggressiveness seems to be slowing him down a bit and their forwards are blocking shots at every opportunity. The Oilers need more from this player and he needs to give it or else the rest of the league is going to see this and it could affect who pursues him this summer and how much he’s offered.
• #56 Kailer Yamamoto – One of the few players getting in the muck for Edmonton. He’s paid the price a few times and you have to respect a player like this. That said, we need more of it. What about this idea? Put Zack Kassian on the LW of Leon and Killer’s line and then tell Yamo he’s got carpe blanche to go where ever he wants… Sure Kassian might not provide a lot of offense but the combination of the three players might just spark some emotion out of the Oilers.

Oilers Notes

At the time of writing (8am-ish Edmonton time), I am under the impression that we might see a lineup change. I don’t know who but the feeling I get is that Dominik Kahun might get the night off and Devin Shore could make his series debut. There is a small chance that Gaetan Haas could come in instead or as well at the expense of someone else, maybe James Neal.

Those aren’t official moves or ones that I was told, just guesses (more or less) on my part. I reckon that there’s not enough speed in Edmonton’s lineup right now. The chip and chase that’s being implemented is getting thwarted because the Oilers can’t get into Winnipeg’s zone fast enough to retrieve the puck.

If I as doing up the lines, this is how I’d run them,

RNH-McDavid-Pulju
Kassian-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Archibald-McLeod-Chiasson
Shore-Khaira-Haas

Nurse-Bear
Kulikov-Larsson
Koekkoek-Barrie

Smith

Edmonton isn’t out of this series and they have a nuclear deterrent at their disposal…

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I’ll just start off by saying two words. Jesse Puljujarvi!!!

What an absolute beauty he is! He’s got a good record of games against Winnipeg. Who knows why he plays as well as he does when the Oilers meet the Jets, but it is what it is and I hope the coaching staff and Edmonton’s stars take notice of this and work with Pulju here.

Bloody kid could’ve had a hat-trick!

Now on to the not so nice stuff…

If the Oilers don’t find a way to bring some more intensity and finish to the game, they’ll be joining their cross-provincial rivals on the golf course sooner than later. It’s fine and dandy to pepper the opposition netminder but if none of those shots are dangerous or make that netminder have to do an ounce of work outside his comfort zone, what’s the point?

Now, some of you might be saying that I’m being harsh on the Oilers and that the Jets got lucky or they simply ran into a hot goalie. Hogwash! The Jets took away most of Connor and Leon’s time and space, they removed the middle of the ice and forced Edmonton to play from the outside. Where was the response? Where were the adjustments from the coaching staff aside from simply throwing Leon and Connor back together?

Now, if the Oilers are content with taking their chances from the perimeter with distance shots and crowding the net front, great! But they’ve got two players that’ll do that effectively, Alex Chiasson and Jesse Puljujarvi.

I don’t think they’re fine with that game plan though.

You see, the standard of officiating has changed but it seems to me that the Oilers were expecting that same old regular season reffing because they did nothing to push the envelope themselves on Wednesday. A few big hits here and there but I feel like Winnipeg really figured out how to walk that line perfectly plus they were the aggressors from the outset and they did what was required to build up momentum for their team. Given that they’re a team whose play stems from how much emotion they’ve manufactured, a good portion of that game they controlled.

Connor Hellebuyck is good and that was one of the things I warned about in my series preview. Just like Corey Crawford last year, it’s completely possible that the Oilers could get undone by stellar netminding again… It really all comes down to who’s more willing to sacrifice everything to get the job done and right now, it appears that Mark Scheifele’s boys are making that proclamation loud and clear.

The other thing that Winnipeg had going in game one, depth effectiveness. With Andrew Copp in the lineup, it allowed Paul Maurice to get that wicked 3rd line with Adam Lowry, Mathieu Perreault, and Mason Appleton going.

So, you’ve got to ask yourself, when Dave Tippett stacks his top line, does that make it easier for the Jets? All they have to do is shut down that 97’s line and theoretically it’s goodnight Irene, no? Yamamoto hasn’t scored in over 25 games and RNH’s 5×5 scoring has shit the bed this year. That leaves Puljujarvi to become the driver of that second line, which is an idea that I love, but aside from McDavid and a handful of others, I don’t know many forwards who can do this on their own. That said, I believe fully in Pulju’s ability and there’s a chance that this series could be his coming out party.

You know who could’ve helped Edmonton last night, the best faceoff man in the NHL, Luke Glendening. The Oilers as a whole were 39% on the dot and that simply cannot continue if they’re to have success in the next week or so. Too bad Ken Holland could strike a deal to bring in a good faceoff man at the deadline.

Okay! That’s it. Ramble complete.

So we now know what the Oilers need to improve upon for game two, right? There’s a chance the Jets could have Nik Ehlers and/or PL Dubois in the lineup too, so Edmonton really has to put the pedal to the metal and show some f*cking desperation.

• Faceoffs
• Depth effectiveness
• Net front presence
• Finishing

If those four things improve, I believe the Oilers will win game two with ease.

Should they be in the lineup, here are three players that I think you should keep an eye on for the Jets tonight,

• #26 Blake Wheeler – He played well on Wednesday. Looked much better than his regular season form and that’s exactly what you want from your captain.
• #17 Adam Lowry – Did his job to perfection in game one and now it appears that he’ll be tasked with either containing both McDavid and Draisaitl OR RNH and Puljujarvi.
• #44 Josh Morrisey – He was very solid in the previous game. Bent but didn’t break. Winnipeg needs this from their no.1 defenseman. If he falters, there’s a chance the Jets defense heads down with him.

With regards to Edmonton, I’ll be watching these three individuals closely,

• #13 Jesse Puljujarvi – Diamonds are formed under intense pressure… Are we witnessing the emergence of the next great Finnish winger? Bob Stauffer compared him to Zach Hyman on Oilers Now yesterday… I think he’ll be much better. How much better? Let’s see how he does when he’s the offensive focal point of his line.
• #21 Dominik Kahun – During yesterday’s practice he was taking rushes with Draisaitl and McDavid. If that line is to be deployed this evening, Kahun is going to play an important role on that line. He has to be the guy that Winnipeg forgets about as they focus all their attention on his linemates. He has to be that guy who is right there in the net-front muck sweeping in those rebounds and tipping shots or else, what’s he there for? There are other players who can forecheck better than him, that can be more physical, and are better at playing around the blue paint…
• #44 Zack Kassian – I don’t expect Kass to be in-form right off the bat here. He laid some nice hits in the first game of the series and was physically involved during his time on the ice. So, I’d like to see a continuation of that with an uptick in TOI tonight. This is a player that can spike the emotional intensity for Edmonton and from Wednesday’s results, they are absolutely desperate for some of that.

Oilers Notes

Mike Smith and Ethan Bear weren’t present at practise yesterday. I haven’t the foggiest as to if they’ll be out tonight but if they are, I think most would assume Evan Bouchard would step in if Bear cannot. However, I wonder if Coach Tippett would insert Caleb Jones or Kris Russell (Is he healthy enough to go yet?) as they can play both sides. Personally, I think that’d be the wrong thing to do as Bouchard is capable of handling 3rd pair minutes.

As for Smith, if he’s out I don’t know where Mikko Koskinen sits on Dave Tippett’s goaltending depth chart right now. One of Edmonton’s media members noted how sharp 3rd stringer Alex Stalock looked in practice yesterday and that has me contemplating if there’s a chance he gets a shot in net since he’s just as good at handling the puck as Smith is. Has anything stranger happened than putting a guy in between the pipes for his first competitive hockey game in over a calendar year?

Just a note on Kassian again, is there a chance that he gets a shot in the top-six of Yamamoto can’t get his offense going? Killer was dangerous the other night but that scoring drought is getting out of hand and Kassian has experience in the top-six with Connor and Leon…

I talked to a North Division source last night and the sense I got back at the end of that conversation was that the Oilers will be coming out with much more fire in their bellies. The start for them will be way better. My source’s belief was that Edmonton was indifferent and uninterested from the get-go in game one and a change in competitive attitude will be noticeable.

A statement win in game two is crucial.

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The war of words is done;
The red-lipped cannon speak;
The battle has begun.

The web your speeches spun
Tears and blood shall streak;
The war of words is done.

Smoke enshrouds the sun;
Earth staggers at the shriek
Of battle new begun.

Poltroons and braggarts run:
Woe to the poor, the meek!
The war of words is done.

“And hope not now to shun
The doom that dogs the weak,”
Thunders every gun;

“Victory must be won.”
When the red-lipped cannon speak,
The war of words is done,
The slaughter has begun.

Should they be in the lineup, here are three players that I think you should keep an eye on for the Jets tonight,

• #55 Mark Scheifele – His playoffs were “cut” short last season after a questionable hit from Calgary Flames Matthew Tkachuk. He’ll be desperate to prove his detractors wrong and also to show anybody watching that he can skate with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
• #37 Connor Hellebuyck – Helly has to be able to show the whole league why he’s considered one of the best goalies in the world and that this season was simply an outlier. On his own, he could steal a series for the Jets and as we know, the team that usually goes the farthest in the Stanley Cup playoffs is usually the one with the best netminding.
• #17 Adam Lowry – Winnipeg’s ability to shutdown Edmonton’s momentum factory could come from its bottom six winning the scoring battle over the Oilers’ grinders and Lowry would have to have a big hand in that. Is he healthy enough to do that though?

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Jets coach Paul Maurice says star forwards Nikolaj Ehlers and Pierre-Luc Dubois will be "game-time decisions" for Wednesday's opener of their first-round series against the Oilers.https://t.co/ONn1OweFCm

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 18, 2021

With regards to Edmonton, I’ll be watching these three individuals closely,

• #25 Darnell Nurse – There’s one more step for Nurse to take here and that’s to become the kind of player who levels up in the playoffs. Evolving into the player he was this year in the regular season is one thing, being able to maintain and upgrade that form in the post-season is another.
• #19 Mike Smith – Last year was a post-season to forget. Smith was crap against Chicago but there were some mitigating circumstances involved as well… Simply put, he wasn’t ready to go. Not this year though… His passion and intensity rings true throughout the Edmonton Oilers’ entire roster. Now, the question is, how far can it carry the team?
• #97 Connor McDavid – I want to know if he can carry that regular season form into the playoffs like previous legends of the game could…

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#Oilers practice lines:

Kahun-McDavid-Puljujarvi
RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Archibald-Khaira-Chiasson
Neal-McLeod-Kassian

Nurse-Barrie
Kulikov-Larsson
Koekkoek-Bear
Russell/Jones-Bouchard

Smith
Koskinen#LetsGoOilers

— Oilers Daily (@oilersdailyy) May 18, 2021

Oilers Notes

I wanted to put Zack Kassian in as one of the players to watch but Nurse, Smith, and McDavid are three players I really feel need to have “statement games” in the first contest of the series here.

Getting back to Kassian though, it is of the utmost importance that we see old Kass. If he can’t exert his physicality early on in game one here, he might as well be in the press box because in the muck is where the team needs him most.

With Kassian, Josh Archibald, Jujhar Khaira, Alex Chiasson, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Adam Larsson, Darnell Nurse, and Dmitry Kulikov, the Oilers have the soldiers to take it to the Jets and I truly feel like they need to soften Winnipeg’s stars up early and often.

I want to see murderous intentions as soon as the puck is dropped.

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If you haven’t heard it a million times already, throughout the history of the Edmonton Oilers they’ve lifted Lord Stanley’s Cup five times and each of those times they’ve faced the Winnipeg Jets prior to their arrival in the Cup final.

1. 1984: Edmonton sweeps Winnipeg three games to none.
2. 1985: Edmonton sweeps Winnipeg four games to none.
3. 1987: Edmonton sweeps Winnipeg four games to none.
4. 1988: Edmonton defeats Winnipeg four games to one.
5. 1990: Edmonton defeats Winnipeg four games to three.

Thirty-one years later, here we are again… Personally, I think it would be near unbelievable if a series victory over the Jets resulted in a Stanley Cup for the Oilers but you can’t help but look back at the history between the two clubs and feel a tad giddy about what it could mean if Edmonton were to make it to round two of the 2021 NHL Playoffs.

#Operation16W Baby! Here we go!

Season Series Review

Mark Scheifele and the Winnipeg Jets were no match for Connor McDavid’s Oilers this year. The two teams met nine times and Edmonton took seven of those outright.

Six Oilers produced at a point-per-game pace (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Barrie, RNH, Patrick Russell) and Mike Smith went undefeated with a 4-0-0 record and a 2.06 GAA as well as a .936 save percentage.

Nik Ehlers was Winnipeg’s only point-per-game player with 8pts in seven games. Shockingly, Scheifele and captain Blake Wheeler went a combined -26 in the series and their all-star goalie Connor Hellebuyck sported a 3.96 GAA and a .877 save percentage…

Team Comparisons

Forwards: I don’t buy that Winnipeg has better forward depth that Edmonton and to illustrate that let’s look at each team’s 5th line. The players who are on the outside looking in until somebody has a bad game or gets hurt.

EDM: Ennis-Haas-Kassian
WPG: Copp-Dano-Vesalainen

Kassian should be back in time and I assume that we’ll see Andrew Copp at some point as well as he’s listed day-to-day on capfriendly.com.

So, if you’re the GM and of either of those teams and your regular 4th line somehow goes down and can’t play, which group are you taking? As good as Copp is, I’m still taking Edmonton’s. On the whole, it’s better and more trustworthy.

Now, that might seem like a silly exercise but it truly lets us know who’s got the deeper forward group, doesn’t it?

What would change things is if Copp and Ehlers come back and can perform at an above average rate. That would give Winnipeg three solid forward lines whereas Edmonton is still a bit top heavy as the majority of its power comes from the top-six.

But we can’t go by ‘ifs and buts’ and the Mega Powers of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are so much better than everybody else on each roster. So I’m saying Edmonton has the better forward group.

Defense: The Oilers depth on defense is as deep as it’s been in a long time. The addition of Dmitry Kulikov has given Edmonton’s coaching staff the opportunity to slot players in where they should be. There’s not one player on their defence that is playing above their ability.

In addition to that, Edmonton has the highest scoring defenseman in the league on its team (Tyson Barrie) and the best blueliner in the North Division who just happens to have finished the year with the most even strength goals (15) for a dman (Darnell Nurse).

Edmonton’s third pair… Sneaky good puck movers. Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear have developed an excellent partnership over the years and it’s blossoming in the Alberta capital as we speak.

The Jets’ defense has been trending down for a few years now. Where at one time they had one of the league’s best d-cores with the likes of Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers, Jacob Trouba, and Josh Morrissey, now they’re left with Morrissey and Neil Pionk.

This category goes to the Oilers.

Goaltending: Easy. Edmonton.

Mike Smith destroyed Hellebuyck this year head-to-head and I can’t say for sure that that will continue but my gut feeling is that Smith’s in a good place mentally and it would probably take an injury to throw him off (knocks on wood).

Special Teams: This goes to the Oilers for having the BEST power play in the NHL again and the 9th best penalty kill. Winnipeg wasn’t far off though, they ranked 7th in the NHL with the man advantage and 13th overall on the kill.

Gamebreakers: There are six players in this series that could blow things wide open one way or another for their team if they were to catch fire or go ice cold.

• Connor McDavid
• Leon Draisaitl
• Mike Smith
• Nik Ehlers
• Connor Hellebuck
• Mark Scheifele

Wildcards: I’m going to pick Jesse Puljujarvi for the Oilers and Pierre-Luc Dubois for the Jets.

Pulju was really heating up as the season came to a close. I think he had 9pts in his final 11 games. You could see that he was learning to find the soft ice for Connor or Leon and getting those opportunities to show us that wicked shot of his and conversely, where at times in the past Draisaitl or McDavid could’ve passed to Jesse but didn’t trust him to get the shot off or make the right play, that’s gone now. Trust has been built and Puljujarvi, our Finnish Lion, is good to go.

PLD is due for a bounce back. He’s been facing resistance all season and with his style of play, he’s the kind of player that could take over a series. He’s massive and he loves those playoff-like environments. If he’s healthy or healthy enough, he could cause the Oilers a spot of bother… I can only imagine him on a line with Wheeler and Scheifele and how potentially devestating that could be.

Physicality: Edmonton finished the season with the fifth most hits (1420) in the league and that was without Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira for significant periods of time. Winnipeg ranked 12th overall but they were also ravaged with injuries to some key bangers.

Both teams have a player or two on each line that can provide energy with their hitting prowess but once again we go back to the Jets going into this series unhealthy. How many hits are they going to be laying out after the first period of game one when the adrenaline has worn off or the checks haven’t slowed Edmonton down any?

I’m actually a little worried that the two guys who were prominent hitters for their clubs this year could be lost for the playoffs from a hit. I’m talking about Jujhar Khaira and Adam Lowry. Both were hurt this year as a result of head injuries and both are going to be counted on to provide that post-season heavy hockey everybody expects… Copp and Kassian are a couple more in this category…

So once again, but a much closer result, Edmonton wins this category.

Prediction: For the Oilers not to end up like they did last year in the bubble, they’re going to have to get scoring from those who aren’t former 1st overall picks or Hart trophy winners. Depth scoring has to show up in a big big way because you know for certain that Paul Maurice is going to be targeting 97 and 29 in an attempt to slow them down and by the looks of the standard of officiating that has taken place so far, Winnipeg is going to be able to get away with a shit ton of garbage…

Regardless, I like the Oilers in four here. Winnipeg is going into this series pretty banged up, Edmonton has feasted on the Jets no.1 goalie all year, and the Oilers have only been one of the best teams in the entire league since game 10 of the year.

Plus Edmonton has the one player that can win a series all by himself…