Last night was shaping up to be a beautiful night of hockey, was it not? Bob Cole had called his final game, Leon Draisaitl found a way to score #50 for the Oilers, and it was the final Battle of Alberta for 2018/19.
Then the unthinkable happened early into the 2nd period.
I think that this injury could’ve been avoided 100% and here are a couple of my reasons as to why:
I hear a lot of people asking why Mark Giordano didn’t “let up” on McDavid. It was game 82 and a meaningless game. So in that same vein, why did Connor have to try and pull that move off at that time of the game? Why did he feel the need to try and score another goal for his team?
Sounds ridiculous, right? Just as a scorer wants to score every chance he/she gets, a defender wants to stop a goal every chance HE/SHE gets. You don’t ask the players to let up nor would you expect them to. Personally, I don’t think it’s in either player’s DNA to EVER give up on a play. That’s character and leadership on display and that’s why they’re the captains of their teams.
McDavid grabs Giordano’s stick (as he’s done countless times to numerous defenders in his entire hockey career to gain an advantage), but this time I feel like that combined with Giordano colliding with his rear-end causes him to lose balance.
I don’t believe that Giordano intentionally took out McDavid’s legs with a “chop-block” style hit you might see in football.
You really have to wonder what the end result would’ve been had he not grabbed hold of the Flames captain’s stick here…
If we try to break it down using screencaps, it helps a bit but I feel like if you’re still convinced that it was a malicious play by Giordano, you’re probably not going to change your opinion on the matter. Regardless, I’d like to take a gander.
This is the moment that Giordano decides he’s gonna make a leap of faith here. It’s do or die and whatever happens, happens. He’s got a pretty good case to make the play too… From this screen cap. I think McDavid knows what’s about to happen and leans in to protect the puck, not only by shielding it with his leg but also with his shoulder. This is where he decides grabbing Gio’s stick would also be beneficial to his cause. A mistake that would cost him, in my opinion. Now with his opponent’s stick fully gripped in his free hand, Giordano bumps into Connor’s hind quarter and all hell is about to break loose. McDavid, still holding onto the stick is now about to go full flight into a steel pipe designed to stop a vulcanized disc of rubber that might reach speeds of 120 MPH.
So, what if instead of bearing down and driving the net, Connor pivots back towards the blue line and gets the shop set up? Is there a different result knowing that Giordano is starfishing into the corner?
Here’s the thing, Giordano didn’t injure McDavid. The collision with the goalpost did. Giordano simply facilitated the injury by poorly executing a desperation play. Did he have to dive for the puck? No, he didn’t, but then we’re getting back to questioning the character of the player. On an odd-man rush, a defender can trust his goalie to take the shooter. On a play where a forward is driving the net, the defender has to be there to do whatever he can to deny the scoring chance.
So should we be mad at the Flames defender for doing something we’d expect Adam Larsson or Darnell Nurse to do in the same scenario? There was no intent to injure on this play nor was it malicious, it was merely the worst possible scenario playing out.
Should we be focusing our attention on the NHL and directing our rage at their inability to provide nets that don’t injure players if there’s a collision of this magnitude?
It’s 2019, do hockey nets really need to be made of steel now? Is there not a material available that is not only strong but lightweight that could withstand the force of a player going 42 km/h going into it?
If there is a silver lining to this, it’s that it happened on the last game of the year and there are a good 5 months of off-season to rehab depending on what the MRI reveals.
McDavid injury not considered serious. They will wait for MRI confirmation, but as of now it looks promising. #Oilers
I don’t know how you feel, but there’s a part of me that doesn’t want the Oilers to release the information. I think everyone has a good idea of what the injury could be but where’s the benefit of making it public? I mean did you know that Mats Zuccarello lost the ability to speak temporarily after sustaining a concussion last year? I didn’t but I might’ve felt different about head-shots and concussions had I known.
L50N
Congratulations to Leon Draisaitl for scoring his 50th of the year. I didn’t expect him to put up 50 dingers, I always thought of him as more of a playmaker. But good on our big German! Maybe he’s the winger we’ve been looking for all along and it’s incumbent upon the new GM to build a line around RNH?
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2019 NHL DRAFT LOTTERY
Today, the Oilers have the 7th overall pick but by Tuesday night they could be selecting first through third or eighth through tenth. They’ve got a 20.4% chance of jumping up into the top-three and a 6.5% chance at winning the lottery outright and getting the chance to select Patrick Kane v2.0, Jack Hughes.
Nearly every time I’ve launched the lottery sim at Tankathon.com, the Oilers have won a place in the top-three. It’s actually pretty maddening because it’s getting my hopes up. And so for that reason, I’m going to go WAY out on a limb and say the Oilers will NOT be winning the lottery nor will they be selecting 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in Vancouver.
This is not a bad thing. You’d love to have a crack at Hughes (he trains with McDavid in the summer in Toronto) Kakko, or Byram, but there’s no shame in picking top-ten this year. I mean, after Hughes, Kakko, Byram, and Podkolzin, there’s a drop-off but that group from 5-10 is pretty close and then it drops off again.
So who are we looking at from 5-10?
Alex Turcotte – C – USNTDP: Smaller version of Chris Kreider. He’s a bulldog out there. Hunts the puck like he’s possessed. Will that disregard for personal safety bite him in the ass at the pro level? He’s already had injury problems.
Trevor Zegras – C – USNTDP: Highly skilled pivot. Drives lines. Lacks intensity and physicality according to some. Needs to add muscle. Might take a bit of time before he’s NHL-ready.
Matthew Boldy – LW – USNTDP: Best two-way forward in the draft? Is he going to be more Doug Jarvis or Sergei Federov though? Reminds me a bit of Nugent-Hopkins.
Kirby Dach – C – Saskatoon (WHL): Ryan Getzlaf with less bite. Can slow down a game to his speed and has no problems making highlight reel passes. Slightly inconsistent during the regular season mind you.
Dylan Cozens – C – Lethbridge (WHL): Jeff Carter-like ability to dominate games. Has a laser of a shot and knows exactly where to go and how best to get there at both ends of the ice, but what happened in the playoffs this year?
Peyton Krebs – LW – Kootenay (WHL): A better version of Sam Bennett. Highly intelligent and skilled junior player. The best player on a poor team. Not a smooth operator to me though. His movements seem forced and they lack fluidity.
Who’s on your list right now if the Oilers are picking in the latter half of the top-ten?
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I woke up this morning to see the Oilers Twittersphere still going bananas over Ryan Strome and Mike Gillis and who can blame them really. It’s not as if the fans of the team have anything to be happy about. They wanted McLellan out and they got their wish. They wanted Chiarelli out and they got their wish. Now there’s a sentiment out there that had the Oilers now made the Strome and Caggiula trade that the team would be in a better position in the standings, possibly in the playoffs?
Yikes…
Take a second and think about that for a second. Does that make sense?
The trades overshadow the players I think more than anything here. At the end of the day, the return that Chiarelli got for Strome and Caggiula wasn’t satisfactory but I do understand the reasoning for the trades.
Drake Caggiula did have seven goals for the team before being traded right after Christmas but he hadn’t scored the 12 games prior and there were no Ginos for another nine after the deal. In fact, he’s only scored 4 goals in Chicago. The Drake has a total of 18 points and is dash seven on the season. Don’t tell me that he was the missing link in Edmonton. That’s almost as bad as blaming Toby Rieder for the team NOT making the playoffs.
Good player, fun to watch, but obviously not the guy Edmonton was expecting when they signed him out of NoDak.
As for Strome, he had seven points in his previous 35 games in Edmonton before being dealt to the Big Apple. Three points in 18 games this season. THREE! Nobody can argue that that is brutal production and he was given a defined role on the team (3C/PKer) to boot. So it’s no wonder that in a season that meant so much, the Oilers felt they needed to move him on.
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My friend, SPR, had some interesting things to say on Twitter today regarding Strome that I will share with you here.
Question for the masses. Are the failures of Lucic, Rieder & Strome all Chia’s fault, or should we be looking at the philosophical approach of both coaching staffs too as a culprit? If u look at their #’s pre-EDM & post-EDM (Strome), guys tend to have success in different systems. I’m almost of the thought that it doesn’t really make a difference which bottom 6 players u bring in, if u take away all their offensive creativity & just tell them to dump & chase all game, like Yamo & JP were told to do, no one will have real success. It’s more of system thing
Two old school, heavy hockey coaches now in TMac and Hitch. Why do guys like Chiasson and Kassian have success? Is it because they play with 97 & 29 or is it because they’re ALLOWED to play a more creative style when they play with them?
Dump and chase from lines 2-4 and not getting there 75% of the time seems to be the M.O. of this team for years. If u want 3 scoring lines, u have to let 3 lines be offensively creative. Forcing them to dump and chase every night won’t achieve that.
Those teams do it with a purpose and immediately look to get puck to the slot for a high danger scoring chance. EDM continuously looks to cycle the puck back and forth till they get it to the point for a weak shot on net with anyone in front. It’s like all Edmonton does is stall and try and maintain possession on lines 2-4 till McDavid is ready to come back out. Let him open it up offensively then back to what doesn’t work again. Rinse, repeat.
I think there’s a lot of wisdom in what Sean is saying there. I mean considering that the skilled creative types were moved out (with the blessing of a couple of the greatest coaches in NHL history I might add) in exchange for players who were more predictable, it’s fair to ask what SPR is asking.
MIKE GILLIS
Today you might’ve read what Cult of Hockey Journalist (and Oilers insider) wrote about Mike Gillis. If not, you can do so here. The overriding sentiment is that Gillis should be interviewed, had information gleaned from, and ultimately not hired. But my question is, he’s going to know this going into any interview, so how much gold do you think you’re going to get out of him?
I don’t know if Gillis will get hired in Edmonton or Seattle or any other team looking for a new GM but I do know that he wants to wipe the front office clean in Edmonton if they’re interested in hiring him and I can see how that would rub people the wrong way in Edmonton. The Edmonton media doesn’t seem to like him because he’s not a nice man to deal with.
What I will say is that it hasn’t been working in Edmonton with the nice men. Thirteen years and one playoff appearance to show for it. Most of the front office has been the same in that time frame. So don’t you think it might be time to flip the switch here?
Maybe it’s time to hire the mean man and make things uncomfortable.
Is everyone projecting Mike Gillis in the wrong role though? Should we be talking about him as the Oilers’ President of Hockey Operations? How much would he be dealing with the media then? He could still implement his forward thinking and install whatever analytics department he wanted in this role but all the things that everyone shits on him for wouldn’t so much as apply to my belief.
Thoughts?
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WHERE THE OILERS WILL BE SHOPPING FOR HELP
I’m of the thought that the Oilers will be sending a pretty solid group of scouts to the World Championships in Bratislava, Slovakia this year in hopes of unearthing some affordable additions to the team next season.
Names that have come up in the past are Joakim Nygard (W), Jacob Lilja (W), and Anton Wedin (W) from Sweden. Oula Palve (C), Otto Leskinen (D), Oliwer Kaski (RHD), and Ville Leskinen (W) from Finland. Perhaps Ilya Mikheyev (F) and Vlad Tkachyev (F) (Remember Vladdy Hockey?) from Russia as well.
Interim-GM Keith Gretzky did make mention of procuring some talent from Europe that is a bit more pro-ready on Oilers Now recently.
THE DRAFT
At this very moment, the Oilers are sitting at 8th overall. This means if the standings were to remain the same, they could draft either in the top-3 with a lottery win or move down as far as 11th if I’m correct on that.
Obviously, the Oilers will be looking for the best player available where ever they end up.
They can’t go wrong with 200pt man Jack Hughes if they win the lottery outright. Kaapo Kakko IS the winger they need and if you’re worried about another Finn getting picked and taking a bit more time to settle in, don’t. Kakko plays a much different game than Puljujarvi. His English might not be as good as yours or mine but the game is played on the ice and he reminds me of Matt Duchene in how he uses his edges and Joe Sakic with his shot. He’s lighting up the SM-Liiga as a 17-year-old…
After those two players, here are four more that impress me.
Alex Turcotte -C/W- (USNTDP)
Trevor Zegras -C- (USNTDP)
Vasili Podkolzin -RW- (SKA St. Petersburg)
Bowen Byram -D- (Vancouver/WHL)
Turcotte is a wrecking ball out there, not only with his physicality (he never gives up on the puck) but also the scoresheet. For the USNTDP U-18 program, he has 53pts in 30 games and for their junior team that suits up against USHL and NCAA teams, he has 34pts in 16 games.
Trevor Zegras is often referred to as Jack Hughes-lite. He’s a crafty line driver that doesn’t rely on others for point production according to Evan Oppenheimer.
“Betweenness” is a new metric that I’ve discovered that intrigues me. The most basic way I’ve seen it described is from DraftGeek’s Sam Happi,
Betweenness is a metric that estimates the influence of a player within his team’s scoring network. I like to look at it as a measure of how much the team would suffer if that player was suddenly removed from the scoring network of his team— the higher the betweenness, the more the team would feel the negative effects.
Of course, this stat isn’t the be-all, end-all that should determine a player’s worth. Its creator sums it up like this,
A player’s betweenness score may provide us with a lot of information about that player’s context, but it is only one way of doing that. Employing betweenness scores in one’s analysis may be extremely valuable — but it’s more like a thermometer than it is an actual doctor.
Zegras has also been racking up the points for that stacked USNTDP roster. For the U-18 team he’s amassed 76pts in 53 games and for the junior club he has 40pts in 27 games played.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-jv-71HZLM
Vasiili Podkolzin is a contested figure. He lit up the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament in Edmonton this past summer but he’s failed to really shine for his teams in Russia.
Admittedly, I have only seen a shift-by-shift video of him for SKA St. Petersburg but I was impressed with how smart he played. He’s quite good at being in the right spot at the right time both offensively and defensively.
I’ve said in the past, his aggressiveness is something I really enjoy. He reminds me a bit of Peter Forsberg or Evgeni Malkin in that manner sans Malkin’s size. Meaning he doesn’t take any shit out on the ice and he’ll come right at you if he feels he’s been done wrong by.
He’s probably going to stay in Russia for another season or two and that might be exactly what the Oilers need. Just to prevent them from rushing another 18-year-old kid into the lineup and blowing his development as their so apt to do.
Lastly, if Edmonton can get their hands on Bowen Byram, they should be jumping for joy. He’s the best defender available and he’s the perfect partner for Evan Bouchard if we’re projecting three-to-five years into the future.
Byram is a clutch goal scorer (I think he has 6 GWG OT goals this year). He can skate, shoot, and pass. He hits like a freight train despite not having a massive frame and he oozes leadership. Edmonton would be nuts to pass up the opportunity to grab him.
If the Oilers find themselves drafting lower than 8th, I would hope they explore a trade then. Either to upgrade the roster, which could be by subtraction (Lucic) or to trade down and pick up additional draft picks where they could select a forward like,
Cole Caufield (USNTDP) -W- Debincat 2.0. This kid scores at will.
Bobby Brink (Sioux City/USHL) -W- Fast rising up the rankings. Very smart and very skilled.
Phil Tomasino (Niagara/OHL) -W- Barzal-lite? You want speed and skill, Tomasino’s got it.
None of these players are big, apart from Kakko, who is 6’4″ and 200lbs plus but none are as slight as Kailer Yamamoto either.
Check out how the rest of the draft class is doing here.
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It was unfortunate that due to injury Hughes missed much of the World Juniors. Although in his few games we saw his unparalleled skating ability and skill. He registered an assist in each of his games and played a crucial role in the Americans silver medal run.
From what I saw, Hughes was the best player on the ice every time he went out. He had an especially good game against Russia where, when given ice time, he was clearly the best player on either team. It was really too bad the USA staff favorited their veterans over their better young stars.
The gold medal-winning Kaapo Kakko played an enormous role in Finland’s gold medal run. He scored the game winner in the finals and was clearly a top 2-3 player for Finland. In my opinion, only Aleksi Heponiemi played better for Finland.
Kakko has gotten a lot of attention as a possible #1 pick after this performance, but personally, I still see Hughes as better. Nonetheless, Kakko still shows the top talent and hockey IQ in the class outside of Hughes. Nobody is even close to challenging Kakko for the 2nd spot.
3) Dylan Cozens C (Lethbridge Hurricanes, WHL) – 191cm, 80kg
Outside of Hughes and Kakko, Cozens is clearly the most NHL ready player in the class. He has the size and speed to hold his own in the NHL right now. The top 3 players are the only players could survive the NHL game right now. His straight line speed is the best of the 6ft plus players in the draft class. He’s also got an NHL ready shot and elite playmaking abilities. If a team wants an immediate solution at the 3rd or possibly 2nd line center spot, and a future number one center then Cozens is the guy.
4) Trevor Zegras C (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 72kg
Nobody is trending up like Zegras has been. During Turcotte’s now ended absence, Zegras showed he is every bit as good as anyone in the draft class. He’s outproduced Hughes in the USHL and sees the ice as good as Hughes does. To continue the Hughes comparisons Zegras plays exactly like him. He usually plays center but due to some new found chemistry and Turcotte’s return, he’s being tested out on Hughes’ wing. Zegras is the 2nd out of 3 possibly elite centers out of the NTDP.
5) Alex Turcotte C (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 88kg
The 3rd NTDP center in the top 5 is Alex Turcotte. The draft’s second-best skater is finally back from his injury that has cost him his entire season up until a few weeks ago. It hasn’t taken him long at all to get back up to pace as he’s already had a 3 point game against a collegiate opponent. With the rise of Zegras in his absence, there will be a coming battle between the two as to who the 2nd best center out of the NTDP will be.
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6) Kirby Dach C (Saskatoon Blades, WHL) – 192cm, 84kg
Saying Kirby Dach hasn’t had a good month is an understatement. In December, Dach scored only 4 points in 10 games with 3 of those points being in the last game of the month. He went on a 7 game point drought and had 1 point in his 1st 9 games. None the less, Dach is still one of the best players in the class. He has exceptional playmaking skill, underused shooting ability, and two-way prowess.
Krebs continues to tear up the WHL without any support from his Kootenay Ice teammates. Krebs is the only major offensive driver on his team and still manages to be at over 1.2 points per game. None of his teammates are even close to one point per game with the highest being 0.79. Krebs has begun to be one of the more underrated players in the class. He’s showing he’s every bit as good as his fellow WHL stars in Cozens and Dach.
8) Alex Newhook C (Victoria Grizzlies, BCHL) – 180cm, 83kg
It’s really too bad that Newhook is stuck playing in the BCHL. He clearly exceeds the talent level in that league and is totally dominant. Newhook looked less than dominant at the recent World Junior A Challenge when the best players in non-CHL junior leagues compete for their countries. He was outplayed by players like Bobby Brink and Vasili Podkolzin, who will be found further down this list. Due to the lack of exposure in the BCHL, it’s going to be important for him to have a good showing at the U18 World Juniors.
9) Bowen Byram D (Vancouver Giants, WHL) – 183cm, 81kg
Vancouver’s star defender has rounded out another impressive month for the Giants. Byram has been a consistent threat from the blue line all season. He’s shown abilities in every aspect of the game including defense which many young flashy defensemen tend to lack. He’s up there as the best transitional defensemen in the class and impresses offensively. Expect Byram to plant himself in a top 10 spot as he continues to dominate the WHL from the blue line.
10) Ryan Suzuki C (Barrie Colts, OHL) – 183cm, 78kg
Ryan Suzuki has had a drop off in his stats as of late, but statistics don’t reflect the prowess of Suzuki. He is clearly the best passer in the draft, in my eyes. He makes impossible passes that you’d think he wouldn’t be able to see. He has unrivaled vision of the ice. He seems similar to your player in NHL 19 that can see the entire ice and make crazy passes because you have a bird’s eye view of the game.
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Nobody in this class has the nose for the net that Caufield does. In the NTDP college cross over game, Caufield has 12 goals in 16 games. These goal counts from a draft eligible player is unheard of. Teams have learned from the success of Alex DeBrincat and getting Caufield anywhere past the 15th pick would be an absolute steal.
12) Bobby Brink RW (Sioux City, USHL) – 178cm, 75kg
Despite an injury, Brink has moved up my list. He’s been out for a while, but the more I watch him the more I like him. He does everything right, and it’s a shame he won’t be able to go to the U18 World Juniors since he isn’t on the NTDP. Playing in the USHL he doesn’t get the exposure other prospects do. It will be interesting to see where he ends up going come draft day.
13) Ville Heinola D (Lukko, Liiga) – 180cm, 80kg
Heinola is my sleeper pick to be the best defensemen out of this draft. Bowen Byram still remains well ahead of him but Heinola has surprised us before. He played as a top pairing defenseman for the gold medal-winning Finnish team alongside Henri Jokiharju. He thrived in that role not only showing offensive acumen, but very good defense too. While he hasn’t gotten a lot of attention up until now I think that will change after his WJC performance.
Podkolzin is another draft-eligible player that attended the World Juniors. He seemed a bit out of his league but was able to hold his own and be a productive player. One of my criticisms of his play at that tournament was that often he would lose the puck in his feet and have his head down. Multiple times the tougher competition would realize that and he’d get lit up. This is less of a big criticism and more of a sign of a bigger problem. Podkolzin has the skill, strength, power, and versatility to be a great NHLer, but it’s the little things he seems to get wrong.
15) Arthur Kaliyev LW (Hamilton Bulldogs, OHL) – 188cm, 86kg
In terms of statistics, Kaliyev is one of the top performers. He’s got 33 goals in 42 games as a 17-year-old in the OHL and is on pace for over 100 points. With that, there is still some controversy around him. Many scouting services still have him ranked in the late first round due to some consistency, skating, and a few other small problems. For me, I see some of the same problems with Kaliyev but his sheer production is starting to override any doubts.
16) Anttoni Honka D (KeuPa, Mestis) – 179cm, 77kg
Nobody has fallen this season like Honka. At the World Juniors Summer Showcase Honka looked like the top 5 player we thought he could be last season. He had the trust of the Finnish staff and looked to be an important part of the World Junior team. But at the World Juniors Honka played the 7th defensemen spot and the Finnish coaching staff clearly had no confidence in him. It’s frustrating to see such a great player fall off as he has.
17) Connor McMichael C (London Knights, OHL) – 183cm, 77kg
With high expectations of players like Alex Formenton and Liam Foudy, they have both been outplayed by Connor McMichael. He’s been London’s best forward throughout every game. He’s got great vision for the ice and blazing speed. McMichael also plays a great 200ft game. It looks like London is going to have a player selected in the first round again.
18) Jakob Pelletier C/W (Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL) – 175cm, 72kg
Jakob Pelletier is another player ripping up the CHL. He’s been a key part of the Moncton Wildcats offense. He’s been one of the more underrated and underexposed players in the draft.
19) Mikko Kokkonen D (Jukurit, Liiga) – 180cm, 86kg
Kokkonen has been an offensive dynamo for Jukurit in the Liiga. To put things in perspective, Miro Heiskanen finished his draft year with 10 points in 37 Liiga games. Kokkonen, on the other hand, already has 13 points in 36 games. It was criminal that Kokkonen was not named to the Finnish World Junior team.
20) Matthew Boldy C/W (USNTDP, USHL) – 183cm, 79kg
Boldy is going to be a favorite for many NHL teams. As big, fast, skilled power forward Boldy can contribute with goals, assists, and physical play. I’d consider Boldy to be one of the “safer” picks in the first round with a very high floor.
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The only 2019 eligible player named to the Canadian World Juniors selection camp was Lavoie. It was really unfortunate for Lavoie that he didn’t make the team because he hasn’t lived up to last season’s expectations and he hoped to prove himself at the World Juniors. Hopefully being cut will motivate him to get back on track.
22) Philip Broberg D (AIK, Allsvenskan) – 190cm, 90kg
The large and powerful skating defender out of AIK in the Allsvenskan finally got his first goal of the season recently. Broberg has been steadily adjusting to the pro game since his rough start to the regular season. While I think Broberg has been massively overhyped he’s still a solid option for a team looking for an offensive defenseman.
23) Moritz Seider D (Alder Mannheim, DEL) – 192cm, 83kg
Seider has been quite the force in the German league after returning from a more than dominant performance in the second-ranked division of the World Juniors. He served as captain and earned Germany a promotion to the main division of the World Juniors. The defenseman was astoundingly good by all accounts. He scored at more than a point per game and ended the tournament only one point behind 2018 first rounder Dominik Bokk (STL) for the lead in points.
Remember that Seider is doing this all from the blue line, and is more of a two-way defender than an all offense guy.
24) Cam York D (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 75kg
The best of the NTDP blueliners hasn’t had the great season we’d hoped for, but he remains an integral part of the NTDP. He’s the best American puck-moving defensemen and has two-way abilities.
25) Spencer Knight G (USNTDP, USHL) – 191cm, 90kg
Knight remains as the top goaltender in the draft. He was the third goalie for the Americans at the World Juniors but didn’t get into any games. He’s a big, aggressive goalie that has been able to handle collegiate competition with the NTDP. Watch for him to be a player that jumps up on draft day to a team in need of goaltending.
26) Nathan Légaré F (Baie-Comeau Drakkar, QMJHL) – 182cm, 89kg
Légaré has been a big offensive producer all season. He’s on pace to be just short of 100 points by the end of the season. He has benefited a lot from being on a very high scoring Baie-Comeau team.
27) Alex Vlasic D (USNTDP, USHL) – 196cm, 86kg
Standing on the blueline at 6’6” (197cm) Alex Vlasic immediately stands out. Being a such a vertically gifted defensemen Vlasic is an easy candidate to be overrated. Although I don’t think this is the case. Vlasic is more than just imposing. He can shoot, move the puck, and defend exceptionally well.
28) Nils Höglander LW (Rögle BK, SHL) – 174cm, 84kg
The first Swedish forward off the board comes pretty late. After a tough start to the season, Höglander has shown he can contribute for Rögle in the SHL. He’s been able to score and play physically at the pro level. Watch for Höglander to be one of the more NHL ready players in the class, and he could surprise people by making the NHL a little earlier than you’d think from a late 1st pick.
29) Dustin Wolf G (Everett Silvertips, WHL) – 183cm, 73kg
The anchor in the CHL’s 4th ranked team’s net has been Dustin Wolf all season long. Before the acquisition of a reliable back up, Wolf played nearly every game. Wolf is top 5 in WHL GAA, save percentage, wins, and shutouts at 17. Dustin Wolf has also increased his assists total this season to 4. This gives him 8 career WHL assists in 60 games.
30) Nick Robertson C/LW (Peterborough Petes, OHL) – 175cm, 76kg
The brother of top performing American World Junior player Jason Robertson has a similar outlook as his brother. Injuries derailed his season early, but he’s recovered and become the Peterborough Petes best player. He’s one of the more underrated players in the class.
31) Pavel Dorofeyev W (Stalnye Lisy/Metallurg Magnitogorsk, MHL/KHL) – 184cm, 74kg
The hard-working winger and Nizhny Tagil, Russia product has been a player worth watching all season. He’s split time between the KHL and MHL but has shown his best in the MHL. Dorofeyev is phenomenal on special teams and a great forechecker.
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Today Josh Morrissey signed a two-year bridge deal worth $3.15M per year to basically set the marker for Darnell Nurse and the Edmonton Oilers.
I can’t see Nurse is going to get much more than that. The Oilers have been holding strong at $3M and Morrissey’s deal might bring that up a bit but it certainly shouldn’t bring it anywhere near the $4M valuation that Anton Thun has of his client.
Then there’s this from our friend Bruce McCurdy replying to an excellent idea from Supernova:
Interesting to compare the platform seasons, esp. boxcars:
Like I said yesterday on Twitter, I wouldn’t be surprised if Darnell Nurse was on the plane to Germany but he didn’t play because he missed all of or the majority of training camp because hi agent only sees short-term dollar signs.
Plan B
Chiarelli was asked if there was a “Plan B” the other day and he said yes. I imagine that plan includes sending out feelers on such defenders as Tyson Barrie, Justin Faulk, and the newly-minted free agent Jake Dotchin.
Jake Dotchin is a new one and I haven’t heard what really happened with him and the Lightning but he must’ve really stepped in it in order to get thrown on unconditional waivers. To be clear, as far as I know, his contract hasn’t been terminated yet. Dotchin has cleared unconditional waivers though so the next step is cutting Dotchin loose.
Hockey teams are usually pretty lenient and don’t want anything to do with NHLPA filing grievances on their players’ behalf. It’s a weird situation but regardless, I asked one of my sources what the deal was there and I was told that he’s a young guy and the Oilers like him.
Personally, I don’t see him as much better than Matt Benning and if we’re being truthful, wouldn’t it be more prudent to aim a bit higher than Jake Dotchin?
Max from TPE Hockey is back with his 2019 NHL draft prospect rankings for the month of September.
This time we threw in a little stat called “Age-Adjusted NHLe” and since most of the seasons haven’t started for these players, we’re using last year’s point totals to find our age-adjusted NHLe.
Draft eligible prospects don’t all play in the same league, and aren’t all the same age, so it doesn’t make sense to judge their statistics as if they do.
League/Age Adjusted Points Per Game can help us put all the prospects on even ground. To do this, we simply multiply the PPG of a player by two numbers: an age multiplier and a league multiplier. These multipliers adjust the PPGs of players to show how they would produce if they were all the same age, playing in the same league. In this case, that league is the OHL, the top Canadian junior league, and that age is exactly 17.
The numbers will look a bit odd, especially for the high-end players like Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko. I asked my friend Sam Happi (The Puck Authority and @DraftLook) about this and he said that the league translation factor, which is meant to represent the average player, doesn’t really do players like Hughes justice since they are so far above average. I’d also add to that that the competition from league to league can really vary. The SM-Liiga where Anttoni Honka and Kaapo Kakko play full-time is much more competitive than the USHL where Hughes plays most of his games or the BCHL where Alex Newhook plays.
So just keep that in mind when you’re looking at that. I do remember asking Rob Vollman about the USNTDP translation factor in Auston Matthews’ draft year and was told that since nobody makes the jump from that program to the NHL, there was no need to do up a factor for it… I imagine most people are using the USHL’s translation factor for the time being but I bet that’ll change in the future.
If you’d like a list of the translation factors for each league, click this link.
You can check out a little video before that and/or his previous summer rankings here.
1) Jack Hughes C (USNTDP, USHL) – 179cm, 73kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 18pts)
The undisputed #1 pick will revolutionize whatever franchise drafts him. Jack Hughes is the brother of last year’s 7th overall pick, Quinn Hughes. Just like Quinn, Jack is an elite skater and reads the game better than anybody. Jack will spend this season with the USNTDP in the USHL. Hughes will rip up that league as last year he was the best player in the USHL at only 16.
2) Kaapo Kakko RW (TPS Turku, Liiga) – 186cm, 82kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
Kakko is everything you want in a winger. He’s a big guy but sacrifices nothing because of it. He’s quick on his feet and just as quick thinking. Kakko is ultra-skilled and has all the offensive talent to become an elite NHL winger. Whenever he’s on the ice everybody knows it, he stands out instantly.
3) Anttoni Honka D (JYP Jyväskylä, Liiga) – 179cm, 77kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 17pts)
Brother of Julias Honka, Anttoni is already a star in the Finish pro league at 17. Honka spent last year in the pros on JYP playing 20 games with them. At the start of this season, Honka became a top pairing defenseman for JYP. He played in the Champions Hockey League and stood out every game.
4) Alex Turcotte C (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 88kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 10pts)
The two-way center out of the USNTDP played in the shadow of Jack Hughes, but that doesn’t diminish his game. Turcotte is a high-intensity player that combines speed, size, and skill with great defensive capabilities.
5) Alex Newhook C (Victoria Grizzlies, BCHL) – 180cm, 83kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 8pts)
Newhook is all about speed. He can zip into the offensive zone and great opportunities for his team. Newhook is mainly a playmaker, but he does have goal scoring ability. He’s also good in the defensive zone and competes very hard.
6) Dylan Cozens C (Lethbridge Hurricanes, WHL) – 191cm, 80kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 12pts)
The 2018 WHL Rookie of the Year is an all-around offensive player. Cozens is a big bodied center who is also very fast. He is mainly a goal scorer but does have playmaking abilities. Cozens has a sick release and super accurate shot.
7) Kirby Dach C (Saskatoon Blades, WHL) – 192cm, 84kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
Dach was a standout at the Hlinka tournament where he was the best draft eligible Canadian. He is a pure playmaker who can drive offense for any team he’s on. He uses his vision of the ice to open spaces for teammates and create scoring chances.
8) Raphaël Lavoie C/W (Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL) – 193cm, 87kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 10pts)
Lavoie is the first player hailing from the QMJHL. He’s a big guy who is super dangerous around the net. That combined with his shot allowed him to score 30 goals as a rookie in the QMJHL. Lavoie went to the U18 World Juniors last season and scored 5 goals in 5 games. He also was taken on the U20 Summer Showcase roster for Canada.
9) Bowen Byram D (Vancouver Giants, WHL) – 183cm, 81kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 6pts)
The Vancouver Giants pick is a player that can control every part of the game. His skating, passing, and vision allow him to dictate what happens when he’s on the ice. Byram is also great on the rush he uses his speed, lateral movement, and hands to work around defenders.
10) Peyton Krebs C/LW (Kootenay Ice, WHL) – 180cm, 78kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
The 2016 WHL 1st overall pick is a small playmaker coming out of Kootenay. Krebs is a lot like Johnny Gaudreau. Krebs is an elusive player who can easily avoid physical play. He also has good hands, speed, and a wicked wrister.
11) Vasili Podkolzin RW (Vityaz Podolsk U17, Russia U17) – 181cm, 75kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
Podkolzin exploded at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. He led the tournament in points and goals playing with Russia. He showed his unbelievable highlight reel skill and clutch play. Podkolzin is super strong, and at top speed, he can’t be stopped.
12) Cole Caufield RW/C (USNTDP, USHL) – 168cm, 70kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 13pts)
The 168cm (5’6”) goal scorer is one of the most fun players to watch. Caufield was a goal a game with the U17 and U18 USNTDP teams. Caufield is electric but is written off because of his size. Even with his size, Caufield finished 2nd in points at the U17s only behind Jack Hughes.
13) Jakob Pelletier C/W (Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL) – 175cm, 72kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 12pts)
Pelletier was statistically the best player coming out of the QMJHL. He is an all-around offensive player who can make plays and score. He also has all the skating abilities to make for a great NHLer.
14) Cam York D (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 75kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
York is the star defensemen for the USNTDP. He played a lot with the U18 team and went to the U18 World Juniors. Even as a 16-year-old at the tournament he was the best defensemen for the Americans.
15) Ryan Suzuki C (Barrie Colts, OHL) – 183cm, 78kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 10pts)
The 1st overall pick of the 2017 OHL Draft is one of the smartest players and best passers in this draft. He makes plays that no one sees coming, it’s almost as if he has eyes in the back of his head. Like his older brother Nick who was recently dealt to Montreal, he has a solid wrist shot that can pick a corner from the dot.
16) Mikko Kokkonen D (Jukurit, Liiga) – 180cm, 86kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 4pts)
Kokkonen has had a great start to his first season in the Finish pro league. He’s gotten two nice assists in his first two games. Kokkonen has been leaned on a lot by Team Finland in international competition. If Kokkonen can continue to produce in the Liiga he will fight for a top 10 spot.
17) Simon Holmström RW (HV71 J20, SuperElit) – 181cm, 78kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
We could be talking about Holmström tearing up the SHL right now. Unfortunately, he is currently out with an injury. He was brilliant in the U20 Swedish league as a 16-year-old but didn’t get to play internationally because of injury. He is the strongest candidate to rise as he gets more exposure.
18) Philip Broberg D (AIK J20, SuperElit) – 190cm, 90kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 6pts)
Philip Broberg was the breakout player of the Hlinka tournament. He showed his amazing speed and skill on the rush. At that tournament, Broberg looked easily like a top 5 pick. Although, there are concerns with Broberg’s game. He had trouble producing in league play and international play before the tournament. Broberg needs to prove he can do what he did in the Hlinka on a regular basis.
19) Trevor Zegras C (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 72kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 9pts)
Zegras is a dangerous player with the puck. He has stellar stickhandling, high caliber speed, and is very smart. He loves to rush the puck but sometimes turns it over in the neutral zone when doing this. His shot is also something to watch out for from the slot.
20) Tobias Björnfot D (Djurgårdens IF J20, SuperElit) – 183cm, 85kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
Björnfot has struggled a lot in international competition, but thrived in league play. This season he is starting in the U20 Swedish league and looks to try and crack the SHL roster for Djurgårdens. Björnfot is defiantly a player to keep an eye on this year.
21) Nils Höglander LW (Rögle BK, SHL) – 174cm, 84kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
While splitting time between the Swedish 2nd pro league and Swedish U20 league Höglander was on a point per game pace in the U20s before being moved up to the 2nd league. He is a primarily small and skilled player with a physical edge to his game, much like former superstar Theo Fleury.
22) Maxim Cajkovic W (Saint John Sea Dogs) – 180cm, 85kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 7pts)
The 1st overall pick is this year’s CHL Import Draft was put on the map after leading the U18 World Juniors in points per game and was second to Jack Hughes in points. Cajkovic is an offensive-minded player with all the tools to be a big-time producer in the QMJHL this year.
23) Marshall Warren D (USNTDP, USHL) – 180cm, 73kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 5pts)
Marshall Warren is a perfect all around defensemen coming out of the USNTDP. Warren is one of the best athletes in the draft too. His skating allows him to play a two-way game as he uses it to defend and great space in the offensive zone.
24) Arthur Kaliyev LW (Hamilton Bulldogs, OHL) – 188cm, 86kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 10pts)
The U17 leader the OHL in goals and points is the top American outside of the USNTDP. Kaliyev is an aggressive power forward who was an important part of the OHL champion Hamilton Bulldogs.
25) Pavel Dorofeyev W (Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk, MHL) – 184cm, 74kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
Dorofeyev is a dangerous goal scorer out of Russia. His shot is his best attribute, but he is also very skilled. He was able to play on the Russian U18 team last year which is very impressive because the Russian program is known to heavily favoring older players. Dorofeyev scored 4 points in that tournament.
26) Blake Murray C (Sudbury Wolves, OHL) – 188cm, 81kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 11pts)
Playing on a very weak Sudbury team Blake Murray managed to produce well for an U17 player in the OHL. Without much support on his wings Murray scored the 2nd most goals of U17 OHLers.
27) Dustin Wolf G (Everett Silvertips, WHL) – 183cm, 68kg
Last year’s WHL break out goaltender has continued his great play into the WHL pre-season. Currently he is 3-0 with a .927 Sv%. Last year Wolf got some good time as the starting goaltender and managed to win the CHL Goaltender of the Week. The hit on Wolf is his size at only 183cm (6’0”). Wolf standout quality is his puckhandling. Last year at 16 he got 4 assists in 20 games. In my mind he is the best puckhandling goalie in junior hockey. For more info check out my full article on on Wolf and this year’s goaltending crop.
28) Matthew Boldy C/W (USNTDP, USHL) – 183cm, 79kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 1pts)
The American power forward is a monster in front of the net. Boldy also has very good playmaking abilities and offensive IQ. Boldy was unfortunately snubbed from being able to play with the U18 team at the USNTDP.
29) Albin Grewe C/RW (Djurgårdens IF J20, SuperElit) – 182cm, 80kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 7pts)
Grewe left a lot to be desired after last season with Djurgårdens J20 and international play. Despite this he broke out at the Hlinka and then has been great in the Swedish U20 league and is currently at a point per game pace.
30) Alex Vlasic D (USNTDP, USHL) – 196cm, 86kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 4pts)
Vlasic is an enormous shut down defensemen who plays a lot like Zdeno Chara. He uses his long stick to block passing lanes and has a booming shot. The cousin of the Shark’s shutdown defender Marc-Édouard Vlasic plays a lot like Marc-Édouard too.
31) Moritz Seider D (Alder Mannheim, DEL) – 192cm, 83kg (Age-Adjusted NHLe: 1pt)
The German monster playing the German pro league is one of the most interesting prospects in this draft. So interesting that I wrote an entire article on him.
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While Jack Hughes is highlighting the 2019 NHL Draft, Alex Turcotte, one of his teammates with the U.S. National Junior Team, is still being ranked at the top of the draft.
Born in February 2001, Turcotte manages to get 15 goals and 47 points in 39 USDP games with the US. National U17 team. That stands up pretty good against past top prospect productions. He also got 8 goals and 32 points in 31 USHL games. He then got the chance to play with the Us national U18 team where he got 3 goals and 16 points in 19 USDP games. Despite all those crazy numbers, I was even more impressed with is play on the ice. Turcotte is a dynamic two-way center that is known as a great skater and complete player. But now, enough of all those stats, let’s look at every aspect of Alex Turcotte’s game. That means skating, shooting, passing, stick-Handling, defensive game, physicality, hockey IQ and competitiveness.
Skating
By far the best strength of his game, Turcotte’s skating is one of the best of the draft. He is amazingly fast and he got a great acceleration. He can shift gears in a matter of instant and easily pass any defenceman. He is always hustling and keeps his feet moving in all three zones. His edge work is good, but not amazing. He more often than not use speed or stick-handling to pass a defenceman rather than use edge work. He can accelerate in many different ways and he is able to start from his own zone and still be the first one to reach the opponent’s net. He easily gets 5 stars for his skating.
Here is the best 35m from both Alex Newhook and Alex Turcotte throughout my 15 viewings of both players. There might be instances where they had a better time, but there is one thing we can say without a doubt, they are both super fast. Newhook gets the win for now. #2019NHLDraftpic.twitter.com/A0OgZ04Ebe
Turcotte has a decent shot. He can fire a quick, precise wrister when he’s at high speed or a super powerful wrist shot when he has more time and space. He has a good release that allows him to have a pretty diverse artillery. He had 31 goals throughout 102 games this year. I would want to see him shoot a bit more, but just evaluating his shot, I would give him 4 stars.
Passing
Turcotte’s vision is really good. He loves to skate around the offensive zone and find a passing line. His bread and butter is that saucer pass to the crease. With his flashy style of play, he often attracts the opponent on him leaving more space for his teammate in the slot and Turcotte is often able to find them. On zone exits, he can quickly pass at a high speed while continuing to accelerate and his reaction time to open passing line is almost non-existent. Overall, he’s a pretty decent passer. I wouldn’t consider him as a playmaker, but he does often set up teammates for easy goals. I will give him 4 stars.
Stick-Handling
Turcotte has some quick hands. He can stick-handle while gaining speed, stopping or turning and still keep the puck moving at a high pace. On a breakaway, he loves to shoot the puck on the near side, or fake that shot to go to the far side where he often beats the goalie with his speed. Stick-handling is an important part of his game. He uses it on zone exit, zone entries and continuously in the offensive zone. 5 stars
Defensive Game
Turcotte is a good 2-way center, but what makes him so good defensively is his intention. He really put efforts to backcheck and cover his guy. There are plenty of examples, but on this one single play, Turcotte started as the last guy behind and manage to overtake his teammates just to come back defensively and still took part of the counter-attack. In the defensive zone, he reacts quickly when the puck goes near his guy and throw some good stick-lift here and there. I will give him 4 stars.
Physicality
Alex Turcotte is 5 foot 11 and weight 194 pounds. If he’s undersized, he does not step back from any physical challenge. With is intensity, he is able to get out of board battle with the puck a surprising amount of time. He protects the puck fairly well and never gives up even if he loses the possession. He’s not a physical player, but he’s never completely outmatched in physical battles, so I’m going to give him 3 stars.
Hockey IQ
With his flashy speed and stick-handling, he likes to attract all the pressure on him to open his teammates. His complete set of skill allows him to jump from strategy to strategy and adapts to his opponent play. Every one of his plays are flashy but calculated. I will give him 4 stars for Hockey IQ.
Competitiveness
When I first saw Turcotte’s highlights, I saw a speedy and skilled forward, but I was amazingly impressed with his intensity and competitiveness. He is always moving and puts all his efforts to recover the puck or just backcheck to cover the extra forward. Even at the end his shifts, Turcotte is able to backcheck, restart the attack and backcheck again without stopping. He might be 5 foot 11, but he does not stop an instant before jumping into board battle or a puck in the crease. With Peyton Krebs, he is, in my opinion, the most intense prospect from the top of the draft. So he definitely gets 5 stars.
So in my opinion, Alex Turcotte should be in contention for the #2 spot with Kaapo Kakko. He’s a complete, but yet very dynamic player and a type of forward that you won’t find often. He can shoot, he can pass, he can outskate you, he can dangle you, he can defend against you and he won’t often be outmatched physically. That’s what I call a complete player. I understand other prospects like Dylan Cozens, Kirby Dach, Peyton Krebs and Alex Newhook are often rank ahead of Turcotte and that’s totally fair. They are all very close to each other and those players give us a different set of skills, but I personally think Turcotte is starting the year with a step ahead.
Anyway, what do YOU think of Alex Turcotte. Is he a top 5 prospect, is he the second best center behind Jack Hughes or am I wrong and he shouldn’t be in this conversation? I would love to see your opinion!
Andy Lehoux is one of YouTube’s foremost NHL draft prospect profilers. His videos are amongst the best you’ll find online and on a personal note, I love his French accent. It really adds a different flavor to his reports.
We’ve teamed up this season to bring you profiles for the upcoming draft in both the audio/video AND the text platforms in order to give you a much better idea of what kind of players are going to be dominating the NHL in years to come.
You can follow Andy here on Twitter and please go to his YouTube Channel, NHL Draft Central, and subscribe! You won’t regret it!
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