The betting outlets in Las Vegas are already hard at work getting the latest odds out there on the 2021 Hart Trophy candidates and leading the way is Cole Harbour’s second-most famous hockey player, Nathan MacKinnon, NOT Connor McDavid…
One NHL Insider is “super excited” to see Jesse Puljujarvi this year. Read about it here!
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The Sick Joke
Player
Odds
Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche)
+650
Connor McDavid (Oilers)
+700
Artemi Panarin (Rangers)
+1000
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
+1100
Leon Draisaitl (Oilers)
+1150
Jack Eichel (Sabres)
+1400
Auston Matthews (Leafs)
+1600
David Pastrnak (Bruins)
+1700
Brayden Point (Lightning)
+1700
Taylor Hall (Sabres)
+2000
Now, obviously, I’m being a tad facetious. Nathan MacKinnon is definitely in my top-3 with Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby. From a pure power/skill perspective, I don’t know if there’s a stronger, more dangerous player in the league.
That said, along with his team, MacKinnon is already kind of there. All they’ve left to prove is that they can get over the hump. I don’t think the hunger is as strong in MacKinnon as it is for McDavid following last season.
The Oilers losing to a lottery team in the play-ins will go down as one of the most embarrassing lowlights of Connor McDavid’s career and I’m one million percent sure that that experience will power him to one of the greatest single seasons from an individual player in the modern era.
The Avs are stacked. MacKinnon has Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog on his wings. He’s got Cale Makar and Eric Johnson defending while he’s on the ice… He’d have to have an epic year to win the Hart in 2021, in my humble opinion.
With all of that said, if this 2020-21 season gets going, it’s going to be a shortened one and anything can happen in half-a-year. So, if neither of them wins it, and let’s say Miro Heiskanen does. I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
Maybe the joke is that last year’s MVP isn’t even close to the top-2?… The disrespect to Draisaitl these days… I tell ya.
I’ll make a farmer’s bet that he outscores everyone on that list aside from McDavid…
What do you think about these odds? Who would be in your top-five? Let us know in the comments below!
I think David Staples summed it up pretty well but I’ve got a couple comments to add as well.
It’s interesting how the nonsense of “your team must squeak into playoffs for its top player to win MVP” took over the narrative with hockey writers this year. It eliminated McDavid but also Malkin, Wheeler and Kucherov from serious contention.
Can we go over why each of these candidates were nominated?
Taylor Hall – Outstanding individual season. No doubt about it. But would NJ have made the playoffs without the ridiculous heater that backup goalie Keith Kincaid went on? $6M starter Cory Schneider was AWOL since Christmas and was no help during the playoffs either.
I say that without the goaltending the Devils got they would’ve had a 90pt Hall and a good shot at Rasmus Dahlin. Basically the same situation Claude Giroux is in.
Nathan MacKinnon – Here’s a guy who until the end of the season had the team on his back and took them from being a 40pt team to a playoff team but he also played on one of the best lines in the league all year. Mikko Rantanen was on fire with 70+pts! But the former 1st overall selection did fade later on and only had 1 goal in his last 10 games.
Anze Kopitar – Kopitar is THE best 2-way centre in the NHL today and what a bounce-back year for him. Not only is he a threat 5×5 and on the PP but he’s a premier penalty killer. Something that Hall and MacKinnon can’t say for themselves. But LA had an elite goaltender in Jonathan Quick and a Norris candidate in Drew Doughty to play alongside.
If it were my pick, Hall wouldn’t even be a consideration. I’d go with Kopitar over MacKinnon.
I know there’s tons missing from the argument but I don’t want this section to drag on. All three players were on teams that squeaked into the post-season and combined for a total of 3 wins. So what happened? Did their Hart Trophy mojo go away once the puck dropped in game 1 of the playoffs?
Nikita Kucherov led the league in scoring for much of the season AND was a major factor in their 1st round series vs. Hall’s Devils. Not an easy thing to do. Claude Giroux changed positions this year and still maintained his high-scoring pace. Evgeni Malkin was bossing it this year but all of that is forgotten because Hall, MacKinnon, and Kopitar just made it into the playoffs.
Lastly, Connor McDavid blew the Art Ross Competition away and was a point-per-game player even when he was sick as a dog and lost 15 pounds. If they only counted his ES scoring, he’d have been in the top-15 in league scoring. His 84 ES points had him 18 points ahead of the next person. But because the Oilers couldn’t get their PP together and they missed the playoffs, significantly I should add, he’s not considered for the Hart? Bull shizzle!
COACHING CAROUSEL
Fleming out! Bergford out! Johnson out! Herbers out! Woodcroft, pack your shite! You’re the new coach in Bakersfield.
There’s not much more to say here that you won’t read in the links below. McLellan is thrown a life preserver and Chiarelli uses his get out of jail free card on the assistants instead of the entire coaching staff.
If the rumors are true and the Oilers are indeed adding Trent Yawney and Glen Gulutzan, then I’m looking forward to the team doing a complete 180 from last year and being a top 5 in both the PP and the PK as well as making the playoffs.
Now if Woodcroft is heading to the AHL, I wonder who his assistants will be there? Also, there’s room for one more coach in Edmonton, will that be Manny Viveiros?
Chiarelli had better get the roster moves right this summer. I don’t think there’ll be a massive trade like there’s been in the previous summers but I could be wrong. Maybe they’ll deal someone out and bring in a guy like Evander Kane which would require a massive exodus of cash in order to do that. Meaning one of Lucic (very unlikely as long as Chiarelli is GM), Sekera (more likely), RNH (unlikely as long as Chiarelli/McLellan are employed in Edmonton), or Draisaitl (ain’t happening) would have to go.
BLH’S FINAL TOP TEN 2018 NHL DRAFT PROSPECTS
This is the last ranking of the year folks. Thanks for following along on the YouTube channel and I’m thinking this year’s draft is going to be some entertaining. There are some real high-end players available and I’m hoping the lottery is going throws everything for a loop again like it did last year.
However, I do reckon that the Oilers will not be picking in the top end this year and like the Puljujarvi draft, they’ll move down in the ranking probably. They’ll get a very good prospect like Joe Veleno, Joel Farabee, Rasmus Kupari, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Ty Smith, maybe Noah Dobson if they’re lucky, or if the hockey gods are really feeling generous, Quinn Hughes!
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OILERS NEWS
Edmonton Oilers fire pair of assistant coaches, reassign another to AHL – Jay Woodcroft has logged more than 1,000 games as a National Hockey League assistant coach, which has a nice ring to it, but there comes a time when you take a step out of that comfort zone and run your own pro team.
The Edmonton Oilers arrive at compromise, as the club re-works its coaching staff – I also believe that Peter Chiarelli was frustrated with some (or many) aspects of how Todd handled his lineup and bench. And while Chiarelli believes McLellan is a good coach and believes in his choice to hire him, the G.M. could also see some stale and/or ineffective tactics being employed.
Chiarelli talks coaching changes – After last season went sideways, it seemed inevitable that the Oilers were going to make some kind of changes in terms of coaching or management personnel, and today we got a first look at what’s to come.
I can’t say I’m ever happy when the Oilers lose, maybe the year when everyone was tanking for McDavid, but certainly not when the Oilers are playing the Calgary Shames. I will say this though, from the 2nd period on, that was a good hockey game and for me, that’s all I can really ask for.
But the man who has drawn the most focus from that installment of the Battle of Alberta was Milan Lucic. He had a couple of chances to score, he was hitting, he was backchecking, and best of all he was stirring the pot baby!
I loved what Milan Lucic did there. He has had a VERY tough season on the scoresheet and there are a lot of people saying he’s finished as an NHLer (at age 29, give your head a shake if you’re one of those people) but the worst thing that I heard after the game last night was this from Rob Soria;
Great…if the plan is for him to play like a thug and punch goaltenders in the head, regardless of who started the scrum, $6M could've certainly been better spent elsewhere. This isn't the 1970's, 80's or 90's
Now, Rob is one of the more experienced writers who blogs about the Oilers and he’s a pretty decent guy on the whole but maybe we should take hitting right out of the game too. We wouldn’t want to offend anyone.
Either way, it’s a BS comment, in my opinion, given that Mike Smith is the biggest a**hole goalie in the league and deserves everything that he gets.
As for Milan Lucic, I did some digging about and was quite surprised with some of my findings.
I went to naturalstattrick.com and set up some filters (5×5, 500 min TOI, forwards only, 12/23 to 3/31) and simply got his numbers for the duration of his slump.
In that time frame, did you know that he has the best CF% on the team (51%)? Did you know he has the 4th best Shots For/60, Fenwick For/60, and Scoring Chances Against/60 on the team? His Scoring Chances For % is #1 on the team and his High-Danger Changes For % is #2.
Now if we expand the focus to league-wide in that same time frame (using the same filters) we’ll find that Lucic still rates highly. I put some comparables (184 skaters) in brackets behind his league rank to give you an idea of who his peers are in each category)
Those are the good numbers. Where Lucic is struggling is in the goal metrics but that’s nothing new. In fact, that’s where Chia-haters and anti-Lucic folks go to dine heartily.
Lastly, I want to point out that his PDO is .954 and that’s good for 180/184 skaters. What do we hear about players that have low PDOs? Eventually things will regress to the mean. But we don’t hear that about a 29-yr-old Milan Lucic, do we? We are told that because of his style of play (one that has yet to force him out injured for any period of time) he’s more likely to be in decline than other players his age that are experiencing this kind of slump. (stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com)
I suppose that DOES sound good if you were against the signing in the first place or you don’t like players like Milan Lucic. I imagine you’d want to see him fail because for some narcissistic reason because in your world that means you were right… And being right trumps everything in the short term.
I can’t wait until next season…
So I can see why the coach would want to put Lucic out there when the team needs a goal. Now, where he asks Lucic to go on the ice and what he tells him to do, that’s a different story.
Regardless, at the end of the day, Milan Lucic must find a way to be a difference maker on the ice. Be that with a hit, a fight, using his body to win a board battle or create room on the ice for a linemate, a shot, pass, or even a goal; it’s up to Lucic to find a way.
I would like to urge you to forget about his salary though. It is what it is and now it’s on the coach to find a place for him to be as impactful as possible. If that is the 3rd line, so be it. If that is on the 4th line, so be it. You have to get rid of his idea that there are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lines. Every coach will tell you that whatever line is running onhot on a given night, that’s the top line.
I’m sure Ryan Callahan and David Backes don’t take as much shit as Lucic does making what they make and producing what they produce. Just like Lucic didn’t take as much crap last year when the Oilers were in the playoffs.
The Hockey Writers – Will the Oilers Really Fire McLellan? – With the season all but over and the Oilers about to head golfing for the summer, the organization is rumored to be taking a good, long look at the roster, the coaching staff, the management and other areas that let the team down this season. No doubt, there will be people who lose their jobs. Is one of those people the head coach?
Edmonton Sun – Puljujarvi’s Progress a Slow Process – He hasn’t caught up to the pace of the game on a consistent basis so his skills can take over naturally. And until he does, there will be nights like Saturday against the Flames where the 19-year-old Edmonton Oilers winger gets 13 uneventful minutes.
The Oil Knight – Oshawa/Niagara Series Recap – t was a very chippy series with plenty of penalties and where 2 players were suspended. Oshawa did their best to try and punish the Ice Dogs physically but Niagara did a great job after that first game of just settling down and playing their game and letting their skill take over.
Oilersnation – Finding a Partner for Leon Draisaitl – Could the team still use a skilled volume shooter to ride shotgun on their top-line? Sure, but you could argue that a more glaring need is finding a competent line mate for Leon Draisaitl who, if all stays the same, will be centering the teams second unit next season.
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I think we could all use a night off from the Oilers after watching them sh*t the bed against the Blue Jackets last night. Good grief! What in Sam’s Hell was that? Can’t blame it on fatigue. Can we blame it on coaching? I mean I have no idea why McLellan was deploying his lines the way he was. Maybe he didn’t have a choice since the whole team was stinking up the joint, just let the lines roll baby…
But that shouldn’t have mattered anyhow. The Blue Jackets came to the rink prepared to outwork the Oilers and that they did. The Oilers could use a few more players like Boone Jenner on their roster in my opinion. Players who are willing to do what it takes night in and night out.
I did see that Jesse Puljujarvi has been in the conversations today though. I don’t get it with pundits and fans when they talk about Pulju. They all want him to be this 19-year-old Finnish Jari Kurri and right now too. Even when you listen to Stauffer, who says he loves the kid, talk about him, he stumbles over his words. Says things like Jesse comes from a “rural” part of Finland when defending him on his show. What the hell is that supposed to mean?
I reckon there are a lot of folk who are concerned that if our Grinnin’ Finn doesn’t start to pick it up here that he’ll be moved. It’s stark reality too given Peter Chiarelli’s transaction background but there’s a player here. Let’s give him the time to properly marinate.
There was once a time when 1st round draft picks didn’t make their team in their first, second, or third camp even. Hell, most of the time they had to go to the AHL to earn their stripes and then they’d get the call and it wasn’t straight to the top 6 either, it was bottom 6 and earn your way to the top lines and PP.
Now I’m not saying JP hasn’t earned it or that is even a thing now but Jesse Puljujarvi is in the best spot for him at this time in his development. 3rd line TOI against 3rd line opposition with two players who have been in the league quite some time.
So there’s absolutely no need to rush him in the final 12 games (5 games now) of the season. All the team needs to ask him to do is relax and work on some specific instructions. Then in the offseason, maybe go home to Finland for half and then come back to North America for half and train with someone like Gary Roberts and/or Adam Oates.
We’re going to see a drastically different player, for the good, next season and by the time Puljujarvi is 21, we’re going to have an outstanding winger because the team was patient with him and brought him along slowly.
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OILERS NEWS
The Cult of Hockey – McDavid is Taking His Game to the Next Level – Remember when Connor McDavid was having trouble putting the biscuit in the basket? It was just a couple of months ago that the Edmonton Oilers phenom went through a drought, scoring just once in 13 games leading into the All-Star break.
The Cult of Hockey – Various Hockey Analysts on McDavid and the Hart Trophy – A number of NHL hockey writers say they will downgrade or eliminate Connor McDavid from contention to win the Hart Trophy for the league’s most valuable player because his Edmonton Oilers will fail to make the playoffs.
Oilersnation – Brownlee on the McDavid/Hart Trophy Debate – Whether an MVP candidate’s team makes the playoffs or not and how much weight that carries – is front and centre in the Hart Trophy debate right now. That’s understandable. What I don’t get is that some media people who have a vote don’t think McDavid even belongs in the top five on the PHWA ballot.
Oilersnation – The Oilers Biggest Need – The Edmonton Oilers have five games left and then the offseason begins. Roster moves don’t happen until June, but some coaches and general managers go, college free agents sign and the lottery balls are drawn to see who gets the first three picks in the draft. What is the Oilers’ biggest need going into the summer?
Oilersnation – The NHL Draft Lottery Odds Have Changed – The Edmonton Oilers are seasoned veterans of winning the draft lottery and they will be in consideration for the top pick yet again this year. Not a single person among us, media included (no matter how hard they try to revise history) believed that the team would be this bad this year.
Oilersnation – Cam Talbot’s Next Contract – How do you handle Talbot’s next contract? He’s signed for one more year before he can hit the open market. At this point last year, it seemed like a no-brainer he should be inked long-term. But is that still the case after this year’s showing?
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It’s slow around the BLH household at the moment so I thought I’d crank out a mid-season awards post to keep the thousands and thousands of readers at bay.
(By thousands and thousands I mean all the people I pay to read my content.)
We’re just going to hit the major awards (Hart, Norris, Calder, Vezina, Jack Adams) here today so nothing too in-depth. A fun little post before all the day’s shenanigans start off.
Calder Trophy
If Connor McDavid hasn’t broken his clavicle this wouldn’t even be a conversation but at this point it’s hard not to give this award to Artemi Panarin or The Bread Man as he’s being called in Chicago as he’s leading the rookie scoring race by a 10 points. With that said, I’m not going to give it to him, I’m going to give it to Dylan Larkin of the Detroit Red Wings who’s arguably had the more difficult assignments to date. He’s only 19 years old and has stepped right into Detroit’s lineup with only 6 games of minor pro experience and not only that but he’s a difference maker each time he’s on the ice playing for a team whose reputation regarding player development precedes them.
Bottom line, Chicago’s a better team with more depth and the Russian also plays opposite Patrick Kane who leads the league in scoring. Those are detractors in Panarin’s case.
This trophy normally goes to the defenseman with the most points and I can’t argue with that. It’s hard enough that a player has to play one position but if that player can contribute at the other end of the ice as well, that deserves recognition. I grew up watching the likes of Paul Coffey and Ray Bourque, Niklas Lidstrom and Scott Niedermayer. All of whom could put a point on the board in their day.
So I will give this award to Erik Karlsson (OTT). He’s in the top 5 in NHL scoring and is putting up points at over a point-per-game pace. He’s the ultimate offensive defenseman of this generation and he’s got a fellow Swede hot on his tail for that title in John Klingberg (DAL) who might very well pass Karlsson by season’s end.
Winner: Erik Karlsson (OTT)
Runners-Up: John Klingberg (DAL), Brent Burns (SJ)
Jack Adams Trophy
This could be the most contested award of the ones presented here today. I’ve got three names in mind and it’s bloody difficult trying to decide between the three. The trio of coaches I’ve decided on are Florida’s Gerrard Gallant, Dallas’ Lindy Ruff, and Los Angeles’ Darryl Sutter.
The award usually goes to the coach who takes the sh*ttiest team and does the most with them. So if we were to go with that then the Jack Adams would go to Gallant because nobody in their right minds would’ve thought the Panthers would be sitting atop the Atlantic Division at any point in the year. But Dallas and LA failed to make the playoffs last year and here they are sitting in first place in their respective divisions… It’s a real tough call.
I have to go with Gallant. I think the timing is right as his young players are just starting to come into their own at the right times and I think the mix of veterans on the team is perfect. Whatever they’re feeding Jaromir Jagr, Willie Mitchell, Brian Campbell, and Roberto Luongo is something I want a hit of.
This is a pretty obvious one isn’t it. Braden Holtby is emerging into an elite NHL netminder and isn’t the timing right? Washington is first in the league and look to be a major contender for the Stanley Cup this year. He could very well meet up with the second place runner-up, Jonathan Quick, in the Finals. The Kings are looking fantastic and Quick is a major contributor to that.
In third place it was a toss-up between Corey Crawford and Roberto Luongo and I’m going with Bobby Loo because he’s at a point in his career where he should be winding down and considering his post-playing options. At 36 years old he’s defying goaltending logic and his play is really helping in the emergence of the Florida Panthers.
The award handed to the player voted to be the most valuable to his team can be a contentious trophy to decide. At the half-way point of the 2015/16 NHL season we have Patrick Kane on pace for a 120 point season. There’s Benn/Seguin in Dallas, although I don’t think the trophy can be shared. Erik Karlsson in Ottawa is leading his team in scoring as a defenseman!
But I don’t believe that without those players that those teams would be at a critical juncture. Regarding Dallas, Chicago, and Ottawa, these are not cases like what is happening in Montreal and the absence of Carey Price. The players I feel are the most valuable to their teams are players like Taylor Hall in Edmonton, Johnny Gaudreau in Calgary, or Luongo in Florida.
Take those players off of those teams and they sink like rocks. In Edmonton’s case, they just stop competing altogether and there’s no true positional back-up let alone a compelling defense to save the team with all the injuries that have taken place to their important players. For Calgary, they still have a stellar defense that could keep them in games if need be. In Florida’s case, I’m certain they’d barely be clinging on to a wild card spot if Luongo were hurt but they have the team depth to guide them through any real tough spots but Al Montoya is not the kind of goalie that is built to carry the load for any extended period of time.
Winner: Taylor Hall (EDM)
Runners-up: Roberto Luongo (FLA), Johnny Gaudreau (CGY)
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I hope you enjoyed the post! Let me know who your mid-season NHL award winners are in the comments below and if you did like the post, please share it on your Facebook page or retweet the link on Twitter! Thanks a lot!
BLH
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