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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Keith Fries, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects, TPE Hockey, Trades

BLH Oilers Mailbag: 2019 NHL Draft SPECIAL with @KeithFries and @TPEHockey

With the NHL Entry Draft this Friday and Saturday, let’s circle the wagons one last time with a questionnaire for both of our contributing scouts, Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@keithfries). I’ll be participating in this exercise 🙂

Question #1: With the 8th-overall pick, do the Edmonton Oilers move up, trade back, or stay put?

Max: Personally, I always prefer staying put. Moving forward can work out if a team really has an eye on a certain player, but at the 8th-overall spot moving up just a few picks can be costly. Trading back is risky as your guy may be off the board. I’d see Edmonton staying put and selecting from the various talents in the deep #5-#14 range, of this class.

Keith: If you look at Ken Holland’s recent track record, at the draft, he doesn’t usually move up or down. I see him staying put because a) it’s in his nature and b) because the options at #8 are probably as equal as they would be if he moved up to, say, 6th-overall. He might slide back a spot-or-two if he can pick up a valuable asset in a trade, but I just don’t see that happening.

BLH: I concur with the scouts on this one. I don’t really see the advantage in moving up to anything apart from 3rd overall and I can’t see that happening. Trading down would be a more likely event given the group of players ranked #4 to #12, but even then, I just don’t see the point. Get your guy at 8 and walk away happy. Don’t mess around.

Question #2: Playing armchair GM, if you stay at the 8th-overall pick, who would you draft if the following players had already been selected?

1) Jack Hughes
2) Kaapo Kakko
3) Alex Turcotte
4) Bowen Byram
5) Kirby Dach
6) Dylan Cozens
7) Cole Caufield

Max: In this scenario, Peyton Krebs is my guy. Krebs was on a weak Kootenay team but found success, nonetheless. He can run his own line and drive offense even without great teammates.

Keith: I think Trevor Zegras would make a lot of sense. He’s, in my opinion, the smartest player at the top of this class, on-and-off the ice. Really good kid – and when you couple that with all the gifts he has in the rink, it’s really a no-brainer. …See what I did there?

BLH: Krebs and Zegras would definitely be of great value to the Oilers going forth. They’d add an element of flash to the Oilers center depth and if I had to choose one or the other, I’d probably side with Max here and go with Krebs due to his work ethic and two-way game.

With that said, I’m a Matthew Boldy man. For my money, he’s the best all-around forward in the draft and the Oilers are really lacking in those. He can stir the drink from the wing and there aren’t many players in the game you can say do that. He can play across the board and in every situation. To add to that, he’s most likely physically ready to play pro right now and his vision, hands, and hockey IQ are right up there with the best in the draft. A season or two in the NCAA will develop him into an impact player upon his NHL debut.

 Question #3: Who do you think (realistically) will be on the board at #38? Who should the Oilers draft with that pick?

Max: A good option might be Patrik Puistola. Puistola is a popular pick for an under the radar, 2nd-round, option, who’s found a lot of success in the Mestis – the 2nd premiere adult league, in Finland. Puistola is a creative goal scorer who will make the jump to the Liiga, next season.

Keith: A guy that doesn’t get enough love is Maxim Cajkovic. The definition of a “journeyman,” he’s played pretty much all over the world, already, and when you look at how well he’s performed at every stop along the road, he’s the kind of guy that teams will trade for at the deadline to go on a ‘Cup run.

BLH: This will really depend on who the Oilers take at 8th overall. I reckon it’ll be a pretty offensive player, so… I really like John Beecher here. He’s one of the fastest players in the draft, he plays center, and he likes to get mucky. I don’t feel he’s quick like Hughes, but he’s fast like jersey flapping Mike Modano fast. He’s got a pro frame and at the end of the day, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up being 6’2″ and 210lbs. Just a beast on skates. The downside is he’s not all that offensively gifted, so the Oilers might be developing a defensive center/wing here in Beecher if they take him.

Question #4: Do you think Edmonton selects a goaltender in this draft? Why or why not?

Max: Edmonton has six picks in this draft and, with no NHL level netminder in their system, it might be worth spending at least one on a goalie. Spencer Knight might be out of the Oilers’ range, but there’s a deep class behind him who could be available in the 3rd-round.

Keith: It depends on who’s available and when. For me, there are three goaltenders in this draft that matter: Spencer Knight, Dustin Wolf, and Ilya Konovalov. If any of those guys are sitting there in the 3rd-or-4th rounds, I don’t care how good of prospects Stuart Skinner or Olivier Rodrigue are, I’m making the pick.

BLH: I’m not sure. With only six picks, I’d be hard-pressed to take one knowing there are four already in the system. I’d probably wait until next season or if I felt the urge to add another one, sign a free agent out of the NCAA or Europe.

Question #5: Another armchair GM scenario… You’re approached by the Avalanche to trade up to #4. It will cost you the: 8th, 85th, and 100th-overall picks. Do you make that trade, knowing the following players are off the board – and who would you select?

1) Jack Hughes
2) Kaapo Kakko
3) Bowen Byram

Max: Alex Turcotte is my 3rd-ranked prospect, in this draft, and I’d jump at the chance to take him. He’s by far the most complete player in the draft. When you combine his skating, creativity, scoring, intellect, and playmaking abilities, he’s easily the best option available after Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko.

Keith: I’d likely ask for additional draft pick in-return – 3-for-2 deal – but ultimately, no. I’m projecting the same ceiling for guys in the 3rd-to-12th-overall range. No need to move.

BLH: No, I wouldn’t. I do like Keith’s idea though. The M.O. in Edmonton is draft and develop and removing half of your picks to move up and get a player that might not be any better than the guy you take at 8th overall, doesn’t make sense to me. There should be enough players around 86th and 100th that interest me too. So, no. I wouldn’t do that trade.

Question #6: Who, in your opinion, is the most underrated player? The most overrated player?

Max: My pick for most underrated would be Domenick Fensore. He’s a 5’7” defenseman with high caliber offensive tools. A top-5 skater that defend both sides of the ice. My pick for most overrated would be Vasili Podkolzin. He failed to produce in Russia’s lower leagues while other less-known prospects thrived. A top-10 or even top-15 pick should be owning the MHL.

Keith: If we’re speaking in terms of the entire draft class, then Simon Holmstrom would be my most underrated. Really skilled winger. Good playmaking IQ, and did a lot down the stretch that showed a return to his dominant form. The most overrated would be Arthur Kaliyev. The kid can score like nobody’s business. It’s a beautiful shot, and it’s really something fun to watch. But that’s it. I see no compete. I see no hustle. For a kid who’s 6’2” – 190, I see no checking. It’s incredibly frustrating. Do I think he’s a first-round talent? Absolutely. But a late first-rounder. Anyone telling you he’s a top-10 pick lives in a padded cell.

BLH: My most underrated player might be Anttoni Honka. This guy has got some real talent but has disappeared off of scouts’ radars due to a really tough season he’s had. At the beginning of the year, I had him as the 3rd best prospect in the draft. Honka reminds me of Sergei Gonchar so much in his ability to stay cool under pressure. His offensive game is really good and he can thread a needle as well as any other prospect in this draft I feel. Some people might say he looks lazy on the ice, but I just find he’s just so collected it appears that he doesn’t care. I think that some scouts are scared off of him due to his brother Julius’ inability to develop into the player he was expected to. Some team is going to get a good player later on in the draft here, book it.

The other guy who’s being underrated is Vasili Podkolzin. He might not be putting up very much on the scoresheet, but make no bones about it, the Russian Hockey Federation doesn’t push its young players to play at higher levels often and Podkolzin is getting just that from them. He’s special. You try traveling as much as this guy has over the season and still maintain a high degree of production. You’ll see, once he’s settled in one spot for a year, he’ll start to tear things up.

Question #7: Final question… We’ll do one last armchair GM scenario. What kind of deal would you be asking for in return for Jesse Puljujarvi?

Max: The ask would probably be a high pick in his draft and an NHL-ready prospect. You’re taking a chance that he just needed a change of scenery and could look like a real fool if he ends up overperforming.

Keith: Realistically, a 1-1-and-1 – as in: a player, a prospect, and a pick. But, I think the trade market has soured a bit on JP. While there are teams that likely have interest, they probably also have that lingering concern of “is he another Yakupov?” So, a 1-for-2 would be nice, and realistic. Let’s say, for example, if they made a deal with the Los Angeles Kings, it might look like: Jesse Puljujarvi for Alec Martinez or Tyler Toffoli + 64th-overall pick.

BLH: My feeling is that he’s right on the cusp of breaking out. The double hip surgery might slow down the beginning of his season, but I’d be willing to bet that he’ll be producing in the 2nd half and teams are cognizant of that. They’re aware of how young he still is and how the Oilers management, coaching, and playing staff have treated him, and they’ll try to fleece Ken Holland, but I can’t see him falling for it.

There are two trade scenarios for me,

  1. The “futures” ask, meaning picks/prospects.
  2. The “help now” ask, meaning an NHL player.

So for scenario “A”, I’m asking looking for the kind of prospect that will even out the scales in the case that Puljujarvi does turn things around. I’m not sure if we’re talking about an Eeli Tolvanen here, a Drake Batherson/Filip Chlapik, or possibly a bigger deal that would bring a Nolan Patrick to Edmonton. Roslovic out of Winnipeg is an interesting option as well. But something in that range. Gotta play hardball in a deal like this.

In scenario “B”, I’d look at oft-maligned players. Maybe guys who are on the outs with their current organization. Nikita Zadorov, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Jason Zucker are names that come to mind immediately. There are also teams that need to shed salary badly, so what about a Tyler Johnson or Nazem Kadri trade?

Be sure to follow both Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@keithfries) on Twitter and tune into the NHL Entry Draft, this weekend, and have a cold one on us. Or… 8 cold ones. Cheers!

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Edmonton Oilers: Drafting with Hockey Prospect’s Black Book

The 2019 NHL Entry Draft is just around the corner and I’ve got a plethora of draft guides sitting on my desktop and in my tablet just waiting to be utilized. So I thought a good idea might be to use the picks from each guide’s rankings to perform the draft for the Edmonton Oilers.

Check out the previous articles written in the 2019 series below:

Drafting with the Future Considerations NHL Draft Guide
Drafting with the McKeen’s NHL Draft Guide

Now, some guides don’t have enough players ranked to do the entire draft, so we’ll just have to do with rounds one to four in that case, but for the rest that do have enough, I’ll lay them out for you and give you the best brief reports on those players that I can. I haven’t watched all of the players and therefore I’ll be forced to go with reports from other publications and my own digging about to get a good idea on them in order to present it to you.

Today we’re going to use the HockeyProspect.com’s Black Book,  which you can find here. At a cost of 54.99, this guide is 675 pages deep and includes 317 player profiles for the 2019 NHL draft as well as 151 profiles for the 2020 NHL draft AND 97 profiles for the 2021 NHL draft. It also gifts you with enough of their scout’s game reports to keep you busy until draft day this year. It’s probably the most in-depth guide out there that doesn’t just wax poetically about every prospect. It also includes some pretty scathing reports and if you get the iBooks version, it has a lot of little audio snippets regarding the players.

The Oilers have the no.8, 38, 85, 100, 162, and 193 picks in the draft but the Black Book’s rankings only go up to 108. So we’ll only be going over the Oilers first four picks. This is who HockeyProspect.com has ranked at those numbers.

No. 8 – Kirby Dach – 6’3″ 197lbs – C – Saskatoon (WHL) – 62gp 25g 48a 73pts 40PIM

Okay, let’s start with the bad. Dach has a tendency to go invisible in games and there are some questions regarding his internal drive. In addition to those things, he hasn’t quite made friends with consistency yet and for a center, he’s pretty horrid at taking faceoffs. A tad weird given how good his hands are and how big he is. Some might pick on his skating a bit but I actually don’t mind it. Once he gets going, there’s not a lot to stop him.

Now, the good. Dach’s vision and ability to pass the puck due to his ridiculous vision might be unrivaled in this draft. Couple that with the fact that he may very well be the best passer in this class and you’ve got yourself one helluva playmaker. But that’s not all with this behemoth, the way he can handle the puck and use his body to dictate the play, it reminds me of Ryan Getzlaf. He doesn’t have Getzlaf’s intensity (at all), but he does possess the ability to control the ice when the puck is on his stick.

Do the Oilers really need another high-end center? My feeling is that they do not UNLESS the plan is to move on from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at some point. Then, in that scenario, they might be smart to draft this player.

“His tools are built for hockey, but his mindset lacks an internal-drive. This can be seen when he’s on the forecheck and loses a battle against a smaller player, or when he’s disengaged during a secondary-scoring chance. There’s been performances where he doesn’t look like he wants to win the game for his team, and instead coasts” – Hockeyprospect.com

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOgVdIz6mi4

BLH’s Pick: Matthew Boldy – 6’1″ 190lbs – USNTDP (NCAA/USHL) (ranked 9th)

As I said in the two previous segments of this series, if Matthew Boldy is available at 8th overall, he is the perfect fit for the Oilers. They need an elite two-way left-wing in their system as the best player they have developing at the moment is Tyler Benson and his ceiling might top out on the 2nd line. Boldy is a player that you can put in any situation and he won’t be a liability. He’s a heady player, he’s extremely hard working, he’s a better passer and would be second only to Kiril Maksimov in the shooting department amongst the Oilers’ prospects. 

I’ve compared him to Ryan O’Reilly in the past whereas others have compared him to Marian Hossa. Not too shabby at 8th overall AND he’d be a safe pick there whereas Holland could be reaching with Zegras, Caufield, Krebs, or Broberg. 

No. 38 – Zach Jones – 5’10” 172lbs – D – Tri-City (USHL) – 56gp 7g 45a 52pts 38PIM

When I read reports on last season’s USHL rookie of the year, I come away thinking that this player could be another Caleb Jones. He’s fleet-footed, his edgework and escapability is right up there. He’s got really decent vision, he passes well, and he likes to dangle and go walkabout every now and then. McKeen’s says that he has everything you want in a powerplay quarterback aside from his shot, that needs work. An undersized offensive defenseman to put it plainly.

If I were running the draft for the Oilers, I’m not sure I’d spend my 2nd round pick on Zach Jones. If I were going to draft a defenseman, I’d be looking for somebody whose potential is a bit higher than powerplay specialist.

Although he will be drafted for the offensive game he supplies from the backline, Jones is a competent defender as well, with tight gaps on zone entries and good technique defending against odd-man rushes. – McKeen’s Draft Guide

BLH’s Pick: John Beecher – 6’3″ 210lbs – C – USNTDP (NCAA/USHL) (ranked 45th)

I LOVE THIS PLAYER! The first time I saw Beecher on the ice I thought Mike Modano 2.0 due to how fast he was skating and the jersey whipping around as he flew around the ice. I don’t think he’ll last until the 2nd round because of this skating ability. but not only that, he’s got pro-size and he’s not afraid to go into the mucky areas to get the job done. Beecher could be considered a bit of a throwback player considering how willing he is to sacrifice his body to stop a play/shot. Chris Kreider comparisons are cropping up now and I think that’s fair, but I’d say he’s less dirty than the Ranger. Unlucky for him that this year the USNTDP program was stacked or else he would’ve been centering one of the top two lines and would’ve had some more offensive-minded wingers.

If I were the Oilers and Beecher was still available late in the first round, I’d definitely be exploring the possibility of trading up to select him. If Holland wants to get faster, Beecher has speed in spades!

No. 85 – Michael Teply – 6’3″ 197lbs – LW – Benatky (CZE2) – 23gp 4g 6a 10pts 8PIM

This big Czech winger has some sweet silky mitts on him and he has a fair bit of speed in his boots, but his skating is a bit wonky. He kinda looks like he’s skating in sand for his first few steps. Once he gets going it’s okay, but he’ll need some drastic improvement there. Another thing that is a bit troubling with this player is that even though he’s got a pretty zippy wrist shot, he doesn’t score a lot of goals. Tends to play the role of passer more often than not.

I’m not sure this player is one that would interest the Oilers. He’s not a great skater and they’re trying to acquire better skaters (ie: Joakim Nygard). And I’m not all that convinced Teply will make it past the AHL.

BLH’s Pick: Robert Mastrosimone – 5’10” 158lbs – LW – Chicago (USHL) (ranked 93rd)

Mastrosimone has been on my radar all season. He’s just a tiny fella but he’s fearless and he’s got a massive motor that doesn’t stop. Sort of in the same vein as the Oilers 1st rounder a couple of seasons ago, Kailer Yamamoto. He’s so tenacious on the puck and despite being 50lbs lighter than some of his opponents, he often comes away with the biscuit. Mastrosimone is a bit of a sniper too (31 goals in 54 games). The release on this kid’s wrist shot is very good. On the downside, he’s not really that fast nor is he a dangler. So when he tries to put on a puckhandling clinic, he is prone to turnovers. He likes to use the toe drag quite a bit and at the next level, that’ll get stopped. I imagine he might develop into a real asset for someone’s powerplay with the way he scores. 

A speedy forward, Mastrosimone can get a lot of mileage out of streaking down the wing and ripping a shot high on a goalie. He has a quick release and can whiz one by a goalie’s ear without a lot of wind-up. His north-south game is when he’s at his most effective. While he does flash some moves from time to time, he’s just as likely to have a puck roll off of his stick as he is to finish the move successfully – Hockeyprospect.com

No. 100 – Tuukka Tieksola – 5’9″ 146lbs – RW – Karpat (FIN-JR) – 51gp 15g 45a 60pts 26PIM

Is it me or are there more and more little guys making their ways to the pro scene? Tieksola is all of 146lbs but he’s a wizard with the puck. I wonder if he’s got a bit of the Vladdy Hockey (Tkachev) in his game? From all the reports that I’ve read, he’s got insane vision, is uber creative and very smart with the puck, and he can shoot the pill to boot. At that size though, he’s going to have problems as he progresses. Just look at how Kailer Yamamoto fared in his first pro season, but apparently, he’s a fan of the rough stuff. He’ll get his nose dirty if need be.

This fella might be one wildcard to keep an eye on for the next couple of years and maybe the Oilers would be smart to take a chance on Tieksola if the mandate is to draft more skilled and entertaining players.

https://youtu.be/gKxIQhMhneA

BLH’s Pick: Alex Beaucage – 6’1″ 193lbs – RW – Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL) (ranked 101st)

Some scouts say that Beaucage has a better shot than Hamilton’s Arthur Kailyev and what differentiates the two is that Beaucage works harder. He’s a naturally gifted offensive player with outstanding work ethic. The one thing that stops him from being a first rounder is his skating. He’s got to get faster or he’ll struggle as he moves on from major junior.

Alex Beaucage is a pretty raw prospect but despite that, he had his fair share of points this season. He has an NHL release. He has good size. He will need to work on his skating. He is not flashy and isn’t the most physical player. He has good hockey IQ and a good compete level – QMJHL Scout

What do you think of these players? Would you take the Blackbook’s selections or mine? Let us know in the comments section below!

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