Tag Archives: Oscar Klefbom

Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, G Money

It’s way too early for this dashboard

It’s not enough data!

Normally for a shot metrics dashboard like this, you’d prefer to have at least 10 and preferably 20 games of data.

But I’m showing it to you anyway!

The reason is because, well, it actually does have a few interesting things embedded in it, and I’m going to walk you through what I see. Would be interested to hear if you observe anything else!

So without further ado …

Here is the dashboard, annotated with numbered points of interest (click to embiggen, an explanation of the dashboard is at the end if you haven’t seen it before):


Analysis

So referring to the numbers above, and remembering the caveat about how early as it is, here’s what I see of interest:

  1. Oh what a surprise, the McDavid line tops the board!  The biggest thing to note here is that big discrepancy between McDavid’s blue Corsi line and his purple Danger line. Most players I expect will have those converge over the season. I expect with McDavid that divergence is going to stay.
  2. Mark Fayne only played the one game but hey, it was really good!
  3. I still think the best thing for his development (and the cap situation) is for Jesse P to spend a good chunk of time in the AHL.  But these are nice numbers for a raw rook.
  4. Oscar and Adam aka KlefLar aka AdamBom are giving up an unhealthy edge in shot attempts, but are doing very nicely on the danger aspect.  As I noted in point #1, this is a mild cause for concern, as these two tend to converge over time.  However!  Larsson has shown for the last couple of seasons that he is a better danger suppressor than he is a shot suppressor, so I expect that we may see this ‘poor shot, good danger’ being a persistent effect too. I can live with that!
  5. You can clearly see the recent uptick for Gryba and Nurse – they’ve played two really solid games in a row.
  6. Russell and Sekera started very strongly but have been falling off the pace the last while. This is what a lot of the “Russell warners” suggested was likely to happen.  I don’t think it’s overly indicative either way, and have very much liked both Russell and Sekera’s game so far.  But it’s something to keep an eye on.
  7. Like Nurse and Gryba, Nugey had a rough start to the season, but the last couple of games have been really solid, and against Vancouver I thought Nugey was the best of the Oiler forwards.

The other notable issue is that performance of the team outside of the McDavid line is a significant concern.

Those are the main things I see on this dashboard this early in the season.  There are other things of note (like Pitlick’s shot metrics vs his 20% sh%!, but those are exactly the kinds of things that it really is too early to comment on. I’m more interested in some of the early trends around the key players and prospects).

How about you?  See anything else interesting?

PS. Dashboard Explanation

If you haven’t seen this dashboard (I tweet it out regularly through the season, and will do more of these walkthroughs here at BLH every 20 or so games), here is how to read it:

  1. Every player with even a single game will show up.  Blue background is a forward, yellow is for defensemen.
  2. The list is sorted by raw Corsi differential
  3. The blue/brown trace shows you raw Corsi differential over the course of the season so far. Blue means above breakeven, brown is below.
  4. The purple line shows my Dangerous Fenwick metric, which takes unblocked shots and adjusts them for danger (based on shot type and distance)
  5. Obviously, the farther above the line, the better!
  6. But really what you’re looking for is things like trends, hot and cold streaks, big divergences between raw and danger metrics, and so on
  7. I call it a dashboard because in a single image it gives you a really clear look on how every player on the team is doing over the course of the season, and that’s not easy to do!
  8. Feel free to tweet questions at me @OilersNerdAlert. You can also post questions in the comment section below, but for some reason my comments get eaten on a regular basis, so I might not be able to respond!
Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Game 4: Oilers vs. Canes – Bouncing Back

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We’ve finally reached the day of reckoning for the Edmonton Oilers… Wait! What?! The Oilers haven’t even played 5% of the season and the fate of the team’s 2016/17 season is on its knees at the feet of game no.4 versus the Carolina Hurricanes… Does it sound a bit ridiculous? If not, perhaps consider taking up knitting or becoming a professional at watching paint dry.

Does it sound a bit ridiculous? If not, perhaps consider taking up knitting or becoming a professional at watching paint dry because you’re simply taking things a bit. Too. Seriously.

Carolina (0-0-2) is limping into Edmonton (2-1-0) after giving up 3 goal leads twice in the last two games. First, in a 9-goal thriller vs. the Jets and then most recently losing to the Canucks in OT. Well that sounds fine and dandy I do not believe this is a positive for the Oilers because generally speaking, one would prefer to not have any goals scored against them than relying on the fact that a young team cannot hold a lead early into their season.

Edmonton didn’t have an amazing time playing Carolina in 2015/16, winning one (in OT) and losing one (4-1). But that was sans Connor McDavid…

I think the Hurricanes are developing into a very dangerous team with the likes or Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner running the offense. Elias Lindholm and Victor Rask are emerging as big players for the Canes though and we can’t forget about an Oilers trade target in Justin Faulk either. Noah Hanifin is one of the loveliest skaters in the league, you’d be remiss if you didn’t pay attention to how he plays the game.

If the Oilers can take advantage of the Hurricanes mental instability and hop on them early instead of doing what they have been doing (letting the opposition boss them early in the game), then I believe Edmonton can end this one early. BUT, if they do revert to previous efforts, it will take someone like McDavid or Talbot or maybe even Leon Draisaitl to have a Herculean performance to pull the team from the claws of fan revolt.

WHAT I WANT TO SEE

  • I want to see Pouliot stay out of the bloody box because McLellan might just send him straight to the dressing room if he goes a third game taking PIMs like he has been.
  • I want to see a MAJOR bounce back from Oscar Klefbom. I know at least two blatant giveaways versus Buffalo resulted in goals or clear scoring chances. Not good…
  • I’d like to see Puljujarvi pot another. He’s slowly catching on and he’s playing the game right. It’ll take time for him to get his shooting confidence but we’re only at game no.4. He’s using his body and positioning in the right manner and that’s more than what Yakupov and Hall could be said of in their first seasons.
  • I think Pat Maroon could put an end to this disappearing/reappearing act any time soon. He needs to get into the games in one way or another. Be it physically or by scoring. Do something man!
  • Jordan Eberle’s great play is something I want to see continue.
  • I want to see another great game from Kris Russell so that we can get closer to ending the hockey buzzword, “small sample size”, with regards to judging his play.
  • Lastly, I’d like to see the Oilers win the possession game AND the game on the scoreboard. Going 3-1 to start the season would be wonderous and especially with the Nail Yakupov and the St.Louis Blues coming to town on Thursday.

It’s pretty early as I write this, so the lineups haven’t been announced yet but I predict the Oilers might go back to what they were originally lined up like before Benoit Pouliot decided the benches in Roger’s Place needed warming up. Please, Benoit, I’m begging you, don’t make the coach take out his McBlender and throw the lines inside…

Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
Pouliot-Nuge-Kassian
Maroon-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Pitlick-Letestu-Lander

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Russell
Nurse-Gryba

Talbot
Brossoit

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Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Oilers’ Fantasy Hockey Preview 2016/17

The main man over at All In Hockey is Scott Maran (@realallinhockey) and he’s ever-so-graciously offered to give us a sneak peek at All In Hockey’s Edmonton Oilers Fantasy Hockey Preview! It’s not a complete preview but a snapshot of what Scott thinks the Oilers top forwards, dmen, and starting goalie are capable of next season. Basically, the only players you really want to be concerning yourself with for your fantasy hockey team. 

Now you might not know about All In Hockey right now but you should get to know it because it’s a real up-and-comer in the hockey blogosphere!

Click the logo to head over to All In Hockey right now!
What’s in store for the Edmonton Oilers in 2016/17?

Last Year’s Stats

Record: 31-43-8 (29th)
Goals For: 203 (25th)
Goals Against: 245 (tied 25th)
Powerplay Percentage: 18.14% (18th)
Penalty Killing Percentage: 80.71% (19th)
Shooting Percentage: 8.3% (tied 25th)
Save Percentage: .910% (21st)

Line Combinations

Milan Lucic – Connor McDavid – Jordan Eberle
Benoit Pouliot –Ryan Nugent-Hopkins– Zack Kassian
Patrick Maroon –Leon Draisaitl – Nail Yakupov
Matt Hendricks – Mark Letestu – Iiro Pakarinen

Oscar Klefbom – Adam Larsson
Andrej Sekera – Mark Fayne
Brandon Davidson – Darnell Nurse

Cam Talbot – Jonas Gustavsson

Thoughts:

* I’m sure Connor McDavid’s linemates will change frequently throughout the season but Milan Lucic should get a lot of time next to him

* The Oilers defense is still a little weak but Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson will give them at least one defensively reliable pairing

* While I’m a big supporter of Nail Yakupov playing with Connor McDavid, the Oilers staff doesn’t seem to love that idea

* If Jesse Puljujarvi makes the team, he’d probably start on the third line with Patrick Maroon and Leon Draisaitl, bumping Nail Yakupov to the second line and Zack Kassian to the fourth line. Or, Puljujarvi could start on the second line and Yakupov would stay on the third line.

Projections (82 GP)

Connor McDavid- 34 goals, 55 assists, 89 points

Last year McDavid had one of the most impressive seasons by a rookie, scoring 48 points in only 45 games with the Oilers. Only two other players in the entire NHL had a higher point-per-game rate than McDavid and he actually scored at a better rate than superstars like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Tyler Seguin and Joe Thornton. Expect much of the same dominance from McDavid as he continues his ascent to the top of the league.

Jordan Eberle- 28 goals, 34 assists, 62 points

At the start of the season last year, Eberle had scored at least 60 points for the past four years in a row, even breaking the 70-point mark in 2012. However, last season Eberle only managed to tally 47 points in 69 games, a 56-point pace over 82-games. Most of the reason for this can be explained by an abnormal lack of powerplay success, with Eberle only recording four powerplay assists. If Eberle had recorded his average amount of powerplay assists last year, he’d have scored a total of 55 points in 69 games, a much better 65-point pace. Considering Eberle should be a bit more luckier on the powerplay next year and has been shooting the puck a lot more too, there’s good upside in drafting Eberle this year.

Milan Lucic- 23 goals, 36 assists, 59 points

If you thought playing with Anze Kopitar would increase Lucic’s value, just imagine what McDavid will do. Last year McDavid showed that he had a profound effect on his linemate’s point totals and Lucic won’t be any different. Scoring 20 goals and 35 assists last year, Lucic should do even better this season now that he’s lining up next to “The Next One” himself. Don’t expect anything too crazy but Lucic will probably end somewhere close to 60 points.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins- 23 goals, 32 assists, 55 points

Injuries have plagued Nugent-Hopkins’ career so far but if he can stay on the ice, he should be a lock for 50 points. Scoring only 34 points in 55 games, Nugent-Hopkins had one of his worst statistical years last season as he averaged 50 points over 82 games. However, in the two seasons prior to that, he scored 56 points in 80 games and then 56 points in 76 games. With Nugent-Hopkins rated 244th by Yahoo, he could easily outperform his draft position.

Benoit Pouliot- 20 goals, 35 assists, 45 points

Ever since coming to the Oilers, Pouliot has actually been very productive. In his first season, he managed to score 19 goals and 15 assists in only 58 games, averaging out to a 48-point pace over a full 82-game schedule. Then, in his second year as an Oiler, Pouliot improved on those numbers by notching

36 points in 56 games, 53 points over 82 games. However, Pouliot might see a bit of a decline in production this year since it’ll be harder for him to get playing time next to McDavid. 16 out of his 26 even-strength points were scored when McDavid was on the ice with him last year but with Lucic on the team now, Pouliot will probably be stuck on the second line.

Oscar Klefbom- 6 goals, 27 assists, 33 points

If Klefbom had played in full 82-game seasons, he would probably have close to two 30-point seasons under his belt already. In his second year in the NHL, Klefbom only played in 69 games but was able to tally 20 points. Averaged out to 82 games and Klefbom would have had a 27-point season. But then last year, in only 30 games, Klefbom scored 12 points, a 33-point pace. If Klefbom can manage to play the entire year this season, I don’t see why he can’t post 30+ points with an outside shot at 40. He’ll probably finish with somewhere around 35 points but if he keeps progressing and takes some more powerplay time, 40 points isn’t completely out of the question.

Adam Larsson- 5 goals, 25 assists, 30 points

Larsson may have changed teams but I don’t think it will affect his fantasy potential too much. On the Devils, Larsson never showed much offensive potential and was put in an extremely defensive role. Considering the state of the Oilers defense and the reason why they traded for him, Larsson’s usage shouldn’t change too much. Last year Larsson only scored 18 points and he’s only had one season where he’s tallied more than 20 points. The increased responsibility will help his totals but Larsson has never given any hint that he can come close to the 40-point mark.

Andrej Sekera- 6 goals, 23 assists, 29 points

Entering the first year of his six-year contract, Sekera had a fine season for the Oilers, tallying six goals and 24 assists. Averaging about 22 minutes a night, Sekera was also an important piece on the powerplay, registering two goals and 12 assists with the man advantage. While he won’t be having 40+ point seasons like when he was in Carolina, Sekera should be good for around 30 points.

Cam Talbot- 26 wins, .919 SV%, 2.47 GAA, 3 Shutouts

Even though Talbot had some long stretches of bad play last year, he still managed to end the season with a respectable .917 save percentage. It’s not amazing but it’s better than average and now with a full season under his belt, Talbot should improve a little. Talbot has shown he has the potential to be a quality starting netminder as in New York, he posted save percentages of .941 and .926 in his first two seasons of his NHL career. While he might not reach those numbers again, he should have another good year in Edmonton.

*Big thanks to Scott Maran from All In Hockey for his Fantasy Hockey Preview of the Oilers going into 2016/17! If you liked what you read, please head over to his site www.allinhockey.com!*

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Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Should You Be Concerned About the Oilers Power Play in 2016?

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This week James Wisniewski signed a PTO agreement with the Tampa Bay Lightning and thus ended all chances the Edmonton Oilers had of making the playoffs in 2016/17. Or at least that was the sentiment I felt on Twitter and other online sources.

The Oilers failed to acquire that right-handed defenceman who could QB the power play when they dealt Hall for Adam Larsson. A deal that was compounded when PK Subban and Shea Weber were dealt for each other minutes later.

Chiarelli seemed to have missed the boat on Tyson Barrie as well as the Avs were demanding Nugent-Hopkins in return for the recently signed RFA.

IS THE OILERS POWER PLAY REALLY THAT BAD?

Last season it wasn’t. The Oilers finished the year 18th out of 30 teams with an 18.1% success rate with the man advantage. That was without Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, and Jordan Eberle for major portions of the year.

It was also sans a power play specialist of the right-handed variety. Schultz, Clendenning, Gryba, and Fayne all had a go at least once in 2015 to no avail. Of course, those aren’t really the droids you want on the PP.

But do the Oilers really need a right-handed power play specialist? I mean how much of the Oilers’ success is going to hinge upon acquiring a no.4-6 dman who has above average skills offensively from the point. I’m going to say not a whole lot.

“It’s their biggest problem on the power play. They don’t shoot it enough and when they do, they don’t have a howitzer from the point. But they too often don’t have sniper fire from the flanks either…” (National Post)

How many times did you throw a beer, a slipper, or a cat at the TV because the Oilers would just dick around on the PP looking for that perfect shot instead of just putting the bloody thing on the net and going for the dirty goals? We’re down to two cats by the way…

DANGEROUS PRIMARY SHOT CONTRIBUTIONS

There’s a recently published post over at NHLNumbers.com that Walter Foddis pointed me in the direction of. It has to do with which types of passing sequences are more likely to lead to goals than others. More specifically in this case, shots that follow passes from behind the net and shots that follow low to high passes.

Now given that those two specific types of passes are found quite frequently on the power play. The findings are quite interesting.

The Royal Road is right down main street aka the slot.

“For each team, players widely considered to be the best offensive player on the team frequently lead the team in DPSC, which is a good sign that DPSC is a reasonable measure of offensive play.”

Oilers DPSC a1/60
Oilers DPSC shots/60
Oilers DPSC/60
  • Connor McDavid ends up being 6th in the NHL in DPSC A1/60 (primary assists leading to dangerous primary shot contributions) AND DPSC/60.
  • Nail Yakupov fairs pretty well under this new study as a shooter eh? He ranked 15th in DPSC shots/60. Maybe they should keep this kid around and just set up him with a centre and do the whole “Hull and Oates” routine…
  • The Sedins were the ones to catch in the three categories and that’s no surprise to us Pacific Division fans… The Sedin Cycle am I right? Facking unstoppable in its heyday.

CONNOR MCDAVID

“The PP was 21% with Connor McDavid in the lineup and 14% without him last season. I’ll argue the PP success will be connected to #97. – Jason Gregor (ON)

Hard to argue with that stat line. I do agree with him though. That first power play unit will be stacked because we know that’s how T-Mac likes to roll, and we are hearing that Todd McLellan will be attempting to put up to three right-handers on it. So that means Jordan Eberle for sure and most likely on the left half-wall. I’d venture to say that Jesse Puljujarvi and possibly Adam Larsson would make appearances as well because I’m not sure if Mark Letestu or Zack Kassian would help the main power play unit more than a left-handed shooter.

My Guess as to who might be on the first unit to start the year IF McLellan does get his wish:

Lucic-McDavid-Eberle-Puljujarvi-Larsson

ADAM LARSSON

Sunil Agnihotri has this article up right now about Adam Larsson’s impact versus different levels of competition. Now, Larsson has no real history in the NHL of putting up offense and Agnihotri’s article supports that but his stats outside the NHL tell us a different story. Leading me to believe there’s still some hope in that regard because:

  • The Oilers ARE NOT the New Jersey Devils or their #9th overall PP (Good Luck Taylor).
  • The Oilers DO in fact have some of the best young forwards in the league, add to that Jesse Puljujarvi and generational power forward Milan Lucic.

A highly skilled two-way defenseman. Larsson has a big frame, skates very well and has impressive hockey sense. Furthermore, he passes the puck very well and has an edge to his game, although his physical game could use some fine tuning. He likes to initiate contact. Some slight consistency issues. Overall a very strong player with few weaknesses. Does a good job on the power play and is equally valuable in shorthanded situations. – See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=10713#sthash.Ubii76VG.dpuf

KLEFBOM, SEKERA, OR DAVIDSON

We could very well see Brandon Davidson and/or Andrej Sekera manning the point on the PP in 2016 because I have a little hunch that Todd McLellan might use Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson (OK-AL) as an outright shutdown pairing. I mean that is if the Larsson or Klefbom experiments on the PP don’t work.

The Shinpad Assassin (Sekera) was #10 in the entire NHL for Corsi For per 60 Relative to Teammates on the PP last season for dmen who played at least 100 minutes on the man advantage. #9 was Kevin Shattenkirk, whose Blues had the #6 PP in the league last year, and #11 was John Carlson, whose Capitals had the 5th best PP. So he may not be the ideal candidate for first unit power play but he’s a very acceptable option.

FIVE FORWARD DEATH PUNCH

My lazy memory tells me that the Oilers under Craig MacTavish would use a 5-man power play from time to time or maybe it was Todd Nelson’s OKC Barons. I can’t recall as a few too many Taiwanese Beers has wiped my memory pretty much clean but do the Oilers have the depth to attempt this tactic in 2016? Maybe it was both MacTavish and Nelson…

Draisaitl-McDavid-Eberle-Yakupov-Puljujarvi

The Oil would have their size (Draisaitl), their playmakers (McDavid/Eberle), and their triggermen (Yak/Pulju). What’s not to love?

WHAT ACTUALLY NEEDS TO HAPPEN

The Oilers could have Erik Karlsson, Paul Coffey, or Bobby Orr manning the point on their PP but if they don’t put the rest of the players on the ice in optimal positions to get a shot off, then it’s all for nothing.

That means in a 1-3-1 formation (the set-up I think they’ll go with),

  • Right-handed shooters like Jordan Eberle (and his shiny new one-timer) and Jesse Puljujarvi’s cannon need to be put on the left wall.
  • Lefties like McDavid and Yakupov should set up on the right wall.
  • Lucic, Pouliot, or Maroon should set up shop in the goalies grill.
  • Nuge or Draisaitl would obviously be the high men in the slots.
  • Then of course Larsson, Klefbom, Sekera, or Davidson would be dancing along the blue.

Thus giving us this:

Jordan Oesterle is a name not often mentioned but he was one of the better puck moving defenders for the Oilers last year. He’s smart, fast, and can rush the puck very well. One of the few prospect signings Craig MacTavish got right.

Tell me what you think the Oilers should do with their power play in the comments below. Should they sign James Wisniewski or Nikita.. Er, I mean Dennis Wideman? Play five forwards? Or just carry on with what they have?

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Hall of Shame: Scrivens’ Comments Translated

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I was really excited today because the Heritage Classic rosters were being released and the possibility of a new Oilers jersey as well but it wasn’t to be, instead today’s focus is on two former Edmonton Oilers… Crikey man, it’s almost daily where I wake up over here and there’s some more bullshizzle going on regarding the Oilers on Twitter. But this one today could very well be the stake to the heart of the Hall-ogists. Let’s move on with the satire…

It was hard and I had to find an English translator in the middle of the night to get it done but I have translated the comments Ben Scrivens made about the Klefbom/Hall incident. Let’s break it down.

“He would know pretty well,”

Okay, right here we’ve got Ben saying Klefbom know’s someone named “Pretty Well” or that Oscar would know if and when Hall played his best because…

“he played with him for a while,”

Now, this is pretty cryptic and I had a hard time finding a true translation for it but I reckon it’s pointing to the “fact” that Klefbom and Hall were teammates for three years. I could be wrong, English is a finicky language.

“and I can’t say he’s wrong.”

Well this is where we get into the business end. I’ll be honest though, was he talking about Hall being the team’s best player or Hall not giving his best against the harder teams? I guess we’ll never truly know because of the language barrier.

We’ll have to wait until he can get back overseas and speak OUR language, that way we’ll know for sure if something was or wasn’t lost in translation.

Until then… We wait for the Oilers PR guy to call Scrivens in Russia and do what he can to twist the former netminder’s arm into issuing a follow-up interview to clarify what he “really” meant.

If you’re angry after reading that, you should be. If you found it funny, mission accomplished on my part. If you’re sad because everyone is shitting on Taylor Hall these days, maybe consider that these rumors are starting to set in stone.

This is the 2nd time Scrivens has commented on Hall in the last 30 days.

Now before you get all over Ben Scrivens and lambaste the guy for agreeing with Klefbom. This guy is an asshole like PK Subban was an asshole in Montreal. Case in point:

Scrivens was a team-first player in Edmonton. He probably sealed his fate with Hall when he agreed to join Team Ference in the locker room though. But he did things like:

Would’ve been nice to see one of the Oilers young “leaders” throw that jersey back into the crowd.

He also did things like this:

You might still say that for a guy who was buried in the minors due to poor performance (probably would be a good idea to take a look at the team in front of him during his tenure) and finally ended up in the KHL, he shouldn’t say anything at all or that his opinion holds no water… But you’re wrong, in fact it holds more water. Why?

Because he was in the dressing room…

Maybe, just maybe, Hall had an absolute shit attitude in the locker-room. Maybe his teammates respected the HELL out of his on-ice talent but grew tired of his off-ice attitude. Maybe he thought that what was working for him when Renney, Eakins, Nelson, Quinn, and MacTavish were coaches, would work with McLellan and Chiarelli… Ouch!

If you’ve played hockey at any level, you’ve probably played with a guy/girl that was so good but your personality clashed with theirs. Not anybody’s problem really unless it impacts the rest of the team in a negative fashion. The kicker is, if the team is one that is a perennial loser and said player still harbours that same attitude and behaviour, the novelty runs out fast. It starts looking very selfish and the rest of the team resents it.

I think we can all agree the lack of success is not to be laid at Hall’s feet solely but yet he should be held responsible to a certain extent. Being the best player on the team and a guy with a letter on his chest, means being consistent on the ice in terms of effort and production and that’s not just in the eyes of the stats men in the stands and the fans. It means, most importantly, you’ve got the backing of your teammates no matter what. Not just a few that are the same age as your or want to ride your coattails either, All of them!

If you’re still wondering why he never made Team Canada for a meaningful tournament or was never named captain of the Oilers… You might very well take that mystery to your grave.

Unfortunately for Hall, he never had that in Edmonton. Tough break kid! Hopefully he gets his ducks in a row in New Jersey.

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