So here we are once again. For the 10th time in franchise history, the Edmonton Oilers are about to play a game seven. This time they are up against 2016/17 Pacific Division champs, the Anaheim Ducks.
Just to recap, the Oilers won the first two games in Anaheim, then lost the next three games in Edmonton and Anaheim and then returned home for game 6 to stave off elimination on the backs of a depleted defense and Leon Draisaitl’s legendary hat-trick.
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Honestly, I’m so nervous for this game because Ryan Getzlaf has been ridiculous… The Ducks have really taken the game to the Oilers at times during this series and really exposed them. I also believe Anaheim will be extra motivated to break their own game seven curse.
I think that the Oilers are going to win, not because I’m a homer (even though I am sometimes) but because we’ve seen this team all season long do the things necessary to overcome their challenges. That and the Ducks haven’t been able to solve the three-headed dragon that is 97-29-93. Or is it a four-headed dragon with Mark Letestu having more points than Connor now?
Speaking of the anointed one. I reckon there are a lot of people out there in the Oil Country that believe Connor McDavid is going to have a breakout game. Well, to that I say, don’t hold your breath. It’d be a great story but I’m not sure we could will that one into existence.
McDavid is doing an excellent job diverting attention from Leon Draisaitl and as a result, Leon is dominating like nobody thought he could. I mean without Taylor Hall and McDavid, I was under the impression that he wouldn’t be able to do much. He was a complimentary forward for at least a couple of more seasons…
Slam your hand in the car door if you EVER thought that.
In fact, nobody should be surprised at how well Draisaitl is performing at such an important time of the year and that is because you’d have watched what he did for the Kelowna Rockets back in his last season of CHL hockey. I believe he won the Memorial Cup MVP in a losing cause… Also, did you even watch him at the World Cup of Hockey this summer? #Epic. Lastly, you’d have noticed what happened when Leon’s stats dried up this past season. He goes on scoring tears like nobody’s business.
Leon Draisaitl is the real deal folks!
All of that being said, this is exactly the kind of moment that Jordan Eberle’s legend was born in. If there’s a need and he comes up big tonight, I won’t be surprised. He’s got a history there.
Now, originally, I wanted to go back and re-visit each game 7 the Oilers had played in but Sean McIndoe (Down Goes Brown) beat me to it. If you haven’t read his post please visit it here because it’s amazing!
So instead, I made this Youtube video for your viewing pleasure. It’s a little underwhelming but if you like it, please share it and subscribe to our channel!
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I’m not sure I’ve ever felt such a rush of emotions each way in such a short time as I did last night. I yelled so loud when Drake Caggiula scored the game-tying goal that my cats jumped 4 feet in the air, only to fall into a cone of silence when Silfverberg won it for the Ducks in OT.
Before we get into the match I want to point out that the Oilers really need to stop shitting the bed in the 2nd period like this. The boys were up 2-0 and everything was looking grand. All they had to do was settle in and enjoy the rest of the game. I think it’s great entertainment for them to keep coming back in the 3rd like they have been but whatever McLellan is saying in the 1st intermission, he’s got to stop.
Also, can we get a faceoff win from McDavid/Nuge/Draisaitl? As per the Cult of Hockey podcast, those three won 7 and lost 28… TWENTY-EIGHT!!!
Do you hear that? I think that is the frantic dialing of any upcoming free-agent that can take a bloody draw… Brian Boyle, are you there?
I think that teams with poor character rip refs/linesman when they lose but I would’ve given them a pass last night if somebody would’ve commented on,
Getzlaf’s first goal where Cam Talbot was interfered with by Corey Perry (Below). I mean it’s so painfully obvious that it’s interference.
The icing being called off in OT. Honestly, WTF?
The offside goal.
So, is this interference? Looks like maybe Perry just skates by and brushes Talbot, screening as puck goes high blocker. The next angle tho- pic.twitter.com/HJduSfnlof
Not only does Perry's skate clip Talbot's, but his leg hits his blocker, sending it down and in just as the puck goes high and outside. pic.twitter.com/egmMDm01Il
So these are the goaltender interference rules that apply to this above clips I believe (taken from here),
69.3
Contact Inside the Goal Crease – If an attacking player initiates contact with a goalkeeper, incidental or otherwise, while the goalkeeper is in his goal crease, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.
69.4
Contact Outside the Goal Crease – If an attacking player initiates any contact with a goalkeeper, other than incidental contact, while the goalkeeper is outside his goal crease, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.
Kelly Hrudey said it best when he was talking about 97% of Talbot’s body being in the crease and 3% being outside. I reckon the part speaking to the “incidental contact” is where the refs decided that there was no interference on the play but come on. It’s pretty cut and dry, no? Perry has made a career of these kinds of plays and his reputation more than precedes him. He prevented Talbot from making that save.
I get it, the longer the games go, the more money it is for everyone (except for the players of course) but I truly hope that isn’t one of the mandates that has been passed on to the officials this post-season. I just have no idea why the linesmen would waive off that icing that late as it f*cked every Oiler on the ice.
Are they really trying to manage the games that closely?
There have been a couple of pink elephants in the room during this playoff series,
Ryan Getzlaf
Jordan Eberle
There’ve been more but I’m happy to see that Todd McLellan went ahead and addressed one of them, the other went ahead and picked up 4 pts last night.
Jordan Eberle was sent down to the 4th line after two HUGE giveaways that lead to a goal and in his stead, Anton Slepyshev brought energy, speed, creativity, and desire.
I enjoyed seeing Slepy in the top 6 but here’s the thing, I enjoyed the job Eberle did on the 4th line with two defensively capable veteran forwards in Pouliot and Desharnais as well. The shackles were removed and Ebs started to look like his old self which is something I don’t get.
Was it because he was told not to worry anymore, just go out there and do what you do best? Because he did just that. He was juking and jiving and twisting and turning Ducks defenders this way and that. He was also on the ice when Caggiula scored the game-tying tally.
Personally, if I were the coach, I’d give him one more chance… On the 4th line.
I know! There’ll be some that will cry that you can’t put a $6M player on the 4th line and that is true… In the regular season. But now that we’re in the post-season where there are no paychecks and everyone is on even footing, the best place to put Ebs is where he can be of the most service to the team and be the least risky.
Funny thing happened right as Ebs got demoted, I got a message from my source and he said,
“That’s it! Ebs is done. Chia is considering leaving him exposed for the expansion draft or dealing him for a RHD.”
Made me chuckle. I’ve scoffed at the idea when it was brought up before but I wonder what kind of deal Chia could swing using Ebs as the base of a deal and if NJ is interested in doing business again 🙂
Another thing I’d do if I were the coach is toss Leon Draisaitl up against Ryan Getzlaf. Big body on big body. The Oilers only have one centre that can physically go up against Getzlaf and that is Draisaitl. I’d probably wait until game 6 to employ this strategy but it’s one I’d have in my hip pocket for sure.
I don’t feel robbed like I probably should be because as I’ve said in the past, I’m just so happy there’s even a team in Edmonton because there was a time when the possibility of them moving was a reality. So, just to see them play is a blessing in itself for me. Adding McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic, Talbot, and co. is just a huge cherry on top.
I hope more fans can share this feeling. Winning is fun, don’t get me wrong but having a team in Edmonton is even better.
Now, all of that being said, the Oilers did an excellent job of coming back (again) and are making this series a helluva lot more interesting than the others. It’s back to Anaheim where the Oilers are undefeated this offseason for a best of 3 and I’m putting my money on the Oilers.
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How long has it been since the Oilers had a top-end (I really want to say elite) shutdown defenseman? Since Chris Pronger? Jason Smith? Jeff Beukeboom? I am SO happy with Larsson’s performance not only to th eye but also on the stat sheet.
Let’s take a look at how five of the Anaheim Ducks’ top offensive threats have done against each of the Oilers top 6 defensemen in 2016/17.
Let’s preface this by saying that what happens in the regular season doesn’t necessarily mean the same will happen in the playoffs. As everybody knows, anything can happen in a short-term tournament like the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Goalies get hot, grinders start scoring, basically; anything goes. But I want to present to you some metrics that stand out for me.
Nothing special, just something to chew on while you’re waiting for game 1 to start.
I’d like to stick to using Goals for Per 60 (GF60) and Goals Against per 60 (GA60). I’m getting the numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com and they are the 5v5 numbers. The reason I want to use the goal scoring metrics are because a team can have all the possession stats they want but unless those translate into goals, they’re meaningless in my opinion, right LA Kings? Besides, goals win/lose the games, no?
Apparently, Rakell and Darnell Nurse did not face each other but here we see that Larsson and Klelfbom lead the way in shutting down Rakell’s offense. Interesting enough was Russell and Sekera though. Rakell’s goals against shoots way up when Seksi is on the ice.
Right here we see that Jakob Silfverberg spent the majority of his time lining up against Sekera and Russell with no luck. Althought, he did see an uptick in the GF60 metric when facing Larsson/Klefbom. Must be a Swedish thing. lol. Nurse and Benning shut the whole game down when they were on the ice with the Silfver Surfer. No goals for, none against.
No Nurse, Benning, or Gryba for Patrick Eaves 5v5 this season I guess. I suppose it makes sense, he’s been on the top line in both Dallas and Anaheim. Seems the Oilers 2nd pairing did quite well vs. Eaves and his magic beard. Well, I’ll tell you something the fine people who study the fancy stats won’t, the Oilers are 4-2 this post season against teams who employ players with ridiculously long beards.
A couple of things surprised me here, one being how much Darnell Nurse played against Perry 5v5 and how badly Sekera struggled against him.
That’s it! I was thinking of doing up Ryan Kesler too but I don’t consider him to be a player that the Oilers will be wanting to “shut down”. Cogliano is another I see as a player not really considered an offensive threat to the Oilers, so I skipped him as well.
Multiple metrics would probably paint a better picture but I’m a simple guy and I like my hockey the same. Adding more numbers to try and create a more clear idea of who the Oilers should deploy against which Ducks might just muddy the waters that much more though.
Not sure if this helps or hinders your understanding of what the Oilers have in their defense going into the Anaheim series, but I guess I’m just tired of hearing how good the other team’s defenses are and I’d like to hear a bit more on how Kris Russell is helping the team, how Andrej Sekera’s performances have really gone unnoticed for too long, how Oscar Klefbom is an emerging no.1 defender, how Darnell Nurse is really coming into his own as a two-way threat from the blueline, how Matt Benning could very well be the best college signing in a very long time, and lastly, how Adam Larsson might just be the top shutdown defenseman in the NHL.
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The second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs resumes this Thursday for the Edmonton Oilers as they’ll travel to the Pond in Anaheim to take on those nasty Ducks. I’m anticipating some old schools shenanigans from Kesler, Bieksa, and Perry and I’ll be keeping a close eye on how close those three get to Cam Talbot.
Maybe Eric Gryba gets a game in here as a deterrent.
But here’s the thing. The Ducks have no forwards to match-up with Connor McDavid so they might have their hands full trying to sort that little problem out. Check out these numbers (5×5 btw):
Over the course of the 2016/17 season, McDavid managed to score 5 goals against the Pacific Division Champs and was on the ice for 1 goal against in 85 minutes. His per 60 metrics vs. Anaheim gather from Corsica.hockey are as follows:
GF60: 3.52
GA60: 0.7
CF60: 67.55
CA60: 45.04
So if you aren’t familiar with what those numbers are telling us, and I’m not a fancy stats expert, they’re saying that When Connor McDavid is on the ice against the Anaheim Ducks at 5×5, he’ll score nearly 5X more goals for than goals will be scored against.
Ignore the PDO of 107 though as that’ll make all of this look a little bit less shiny and optimistic.
But I regress…
Now to get more specific, according to Stats.hockeyanalysis.com, Ryan Kesler spent 50:01 minutes of ice-time playing against 97, the most of any player in the league this year, but McDavid averaged over 3.59 goals for per 60 minutes and 1.2 goals against per 60 while playing against him.
What about Ryan Getzlaf? Well, Connor McDavid only lined up for a shade over 21 minutes from Anaheim’s bald-headed wonder and McDavid averaged over 5.5 goals for per 60 minutes and ZERO goals against per 60 minutes…
As for Anaheim’s other pivots:
Antoine Vermette – McDavid averaged 5.7 goals for per 60 and ZERO goals against when on the ice with the “Slasher of Refs” in just over 10 minutes of play this year.
Nate Thompson – McDavid and Thompson didn’t share the ice this year at 5×5 apparently.
But What About a Defensive Pair?
If I were Randy Carlyle, I might make sure that Cam Fowler, if he’s playing, and Hampus Lindholm are on the ice any time Connor is; as it seems they did “okay” when tasked with shutting down the 2016/17 NHL Art Ross Trophy winner.
Fowler (35:52 TOI): McDavid only had 1.76 goals for per 60 when he was playing against Fowler.
Lindholm (40:22 TOI): Connor had 2.97 goals for per 60 when on the same ice as Lindholm.
Compare that with the pair of defensemen that the San Jose Sharks just deployed to keep McDavid at bay and Anaheim might just have something. Here are Vlasic and Braun’s numbers:
Here are Vlasic and Braun’s numbers:
Vlasic (59:47 TOI): McDavid put up 5.02 GF60 on Pickles.
Braun (54:35 TOI): Connor had 5.5 GF60 while stickhandling around Justin Braun.
WOOF San Jose!
CLEVER GIRL
But here’s where Todd McLellan gets shifty.
Take a gander at Lindholm and Fowler’s per 60 metrics versus Leon Draisaitl…
Lindholm (39.43 TOI): Draisaitl racked up 3.02 GF60!
Fowler (26:57 TOI): 4.45 GF60 is what the big German tossed up on Fowler!
So Lindholm’s #s against Connor and Leon are quite similar whereas Fowler seemed to have had a much better time lining up across from McDavid than Draisaitl. I wonder if this simply comes down to a bad physical matchup?
I wonder if this simply comes down to a bad physical matchup? Fowler is probably the only Ducks defender that can keep up with McDavid but Draisaitl can just swat him away like a mosquito.
The Nuge, what do the Oilers do with him? Well, I’ll tell you what they shouldn’t do with him and that’s put him on the ice at the same time as Ryan Getzlaf.. Nuge has a GF60 of ZERO and a GA60 of 3.1 when sharing the ice with Getzlaf.
I’d make sure RNH is out there vs. Antoine Vermette if I were in charge. He wouldn’t win a lot of face-offs (if any) but in the 15 minutes Nugent-Hopkins played versus Vermette this past season, he had a GF60 of nearly 4 (3.8) and a GA60 of 0.00.
Scary stuff there between Nuge and Getzlaf but then again, Nugey didn’t have a great season this year stat-wise.
I just spouted off using a few metrics to attempt to tell you that the Oilers are in good shape versus the Ducks from an offensive point of view but let’s not fool ourselves, the Anaheim Ducks are still a good hockey team and any letting off of the gas by the Oilers here could severely dampen their chances at an appearance in the Stanley Cup final. The Oilers MUST attack the Ducks from the get go. Shock and Awe baby!!
Does Todd McLellan go the three-headed dragon route vs. the Ducks when they’re in Anaheim?
What would you do? Let us know in the comments below!
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News in the NHL has slowed to a trickle over the last few weeks. Especially if you are a fan of the blue and orange. The only real notable news is the training camp invites and the venerable Lowetide has those covered for us here. There are a couple notable players on that list of camp invites. Especially defenseman Loik Leveille, forward Rihards Bukarts, and goaltender Jordan Papirny. All three are players that I would have though would have been drafted but the NHL is a different animal and the best players are not always the ones that are selected. The Oilers currently have eight players coming to camp on an invite but with nearly a month to go until camp officially opens we could still see more added to the list. I know a lot of people are still hoping to see diminutive forward Vladimir Tkachev receive an invite but I think that ship has sailed and should the pint-sized player receive said invitation I highly doubt it is with Edmonton.
So what else is there to discuss in Oiler-land? The vast majority of blog sites as well as most main stream media are busy with point projections, line combinations, and standings predictions at this point in the summer so that just goes to show just how little is actually happening at the Oilers offices over on Kingsway.
I happened to be surfing the web this morning and came across a few rumors that, while I don’t think are actually going to happen, still got me to thinking about possible changes that would greatly affect how Connor McDavid is used in his first season of professional hockey. The first rumor is the Kevin Shattenkirk for Jordan Eberle that is making the rounds on the net right now. I’m not going to say much about this proposal as it has been covered today already in the Sunday Night Pint by myself and several others. You really should read the post, it is a terrific series we run every Sunday. If you haven’t read it yet then shame on you but hereis a quick link to the post. The other rumor that I read, and I have no intention of offering free publicity to the original poster, is that the New York Rangers supposedly have some interest in doing a swap of Keith Yandle for the so-called enigmatic Nail Yakupov. I would have to think about that deal long and hard before I decided either way but that is irrelevant at this point.
For my intents and purposes I want to assume that one of the two is moved. Return is of little consequence to this post because obviously if either is moved it will be for help on the back end and not a right wing that can play top six minutes. Should Peter Chiarelli decide to move either Ebs or Yak prior to the season than who can fill the hole left behind? That is the $64,000 question. Can Edmonton trade their best player on the starboard side for defensive help without bringing in help from outside the organization to fill it?
The funny thing is that prior to the draft lottery on April 18th, a night that will live forever to Oilers fans, I would have said there was absolutely no chance that Eberle would be moved as there just wasn’t anyone close to being able to fill his skates so to speak. Winning that lottery changed everything for the Oilers. We went from having a middle of the pack prospect group to have the best group in the entire league. Between McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse and Reinhart we have four young players that should make huge impacts on this team sooner or later. My money is on sooner by the way.
Should Edmonton move Jordan we are left with a gaping hole on the right side that needs to be effectively filled for there to be any chance of a playoff appearance this season. Do any of the three other right wings that are expected to be on the opening night roster look like they are able to bring what Jordan does on a nightly basis? They sure don’t to me.
Likely the best option available may be for one of our two prospect centers to be moved to the right side and hope they are able to keep up. To me the two best options for a replacement from within would definitely be Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Both are extremely highly touted prospects and would both be able to handle the pressure of playing in the top six on the right side.
Obviously the issue here is which player would be better suited to the move? Everyone knows the scouting reports for these two players and what each kid will potentially bring to the line up. With Draisaitl we have a big player that has hands of silk and quite possibly the best passing ability on the entire team. He has 39 games of pro experience so he obviously already knows what it will take for him to be on the team for the duration. There isn’t really anything that needs to be said about McDavid that hasn’t already been said before by someone. He is the real deal and from where I stand I don’t really see any weaknesses in his game.
In my opinion the easiest way to answer the question of which guy to move is essentially answered by who would be more important to this team as a center this fall. If I was the general manager I think I would be inclined to put Leon at center and move Connor to the wing. If for no other reason than because Leon is huge! His size lends itself well to having to line up against the big bad centers of the western conference. To me Draisaitl would be much better equipped to do battle with the Getzlaf’s and Kopitar’s in the west than the smaller McDavid. Not that I think that Connor couldn’t handle it because he has excelled at every challenge that has been placed in front of him for the better part of the last decade so to count him out would be extremely foolish.
More than likely Connor would handle himself just fine as a rookie center in the NHL even if he doesn’t dominate from the outset but why add that extra pressure to a kid that is already under more pressure than any player since Crosby. I would actually venture to say that McDavid is under more pressure for the simple fact that the Oilers fans are such a ravenous bunch that most expect an immediate turn around now that he is in the fold even though one player can’t do it all on his own. Those are some insanely high expectations to place on an 18 year old kid. Even one that is as poised and mature as Connor appears to be.
What would you do? Would you move McDavid to the wing? Leon? Or do you have another option in mind? Personally I think both Ebs and Yak will be here come October and this argument will have been pointless. Fun but pointless nonetheless.
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