Tag Archives: Sam Reinhart

Edmonton Oilers: Mark Spector’s Summer Plan for the Oilers

As depressing as it is to be talking about the Edmonton Oilers off-season plans and the draft, if you’re a fan of the team you have to be glad that the team was “in it” until the final ten games of the year. They haven’t been mathematically eliminated yet but unless they go on an undefeated streak to end the year and the teams ahead of them in the standings stumble, they’re out of it for the 12th time in 13 campaigns.

So we’ve indeed come to that time.

Mark Spector released his thoughts on what the Oilers should do this summer here and I think he offers up some ideas that are good, okay, and bat-shit crazy.

Interview people from as many organizations as you can (for the GM’s position)

I agree and yesterday I posted what Bob Nicholson had to say in the Oiler season ticket holder’s event on this. He said he had about 34 names on his list that he wants to trim down to 10-12 to interview.

All signs pointing north there.

The Oilers are a top-five revenue team in the league. We can list off the names of 15 hockey scouts whose names make hockey people nod their heads in respect. Guys whose pedigree for evaluating talent is proven, and deadly. Not one of those people work for the Edmonton Oilers.

They’re easy to find because everyone knows who they are. Guys like Craig Heisinger (Winnipeg), Vaughn Karpan (Vegas), David McNabb (Anaheim), Al Murray (Tampa), Pat Verbeek (Tampa). There are 10 more people we could name off the top of our head.

Find them. Pay them.

Once again. I concur.

It’s incumbent upon the Oilers to pluck some talented individuals away from some successful clubs and whatever the cost might be. Rumor has it that the Detroit Red Wings are planning to hire Steve Yzerman as their POHO and Pat Verbeek as their GM. That’s exactly the kind of procurement I’m talking about.

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We’ve all heard the list. We’re not in the interviews, so we won’t pick a name. But hire a bird dog — a real personnel man like Kelly McCrimmon or Mark Hunter — who knows talent. Then hire people to do the contracts, etc.

Depth in talent is the issue for Edmonton. Player evaluation skills are first, second and third on my hiring list.

I think that the team needs to make a HARD pivot here and copy the model that was used to build the Vegas Golden Knights and if that means hiring Kelly McCrimmon to do it, so be it! BUT let’s be clear, that team started with a blank slate and some of the trades they’ve made haven’t been amazing. McCrimmon won’t have that luxury in Edmonton IF he comes in. That said, he’s got the right blueprint. Can he find a way to acquire a future hall-of-fame goalie to tide the team over while the overhaul is in process?

This organization should be able to afford the best Director of Analytics, aided by four or five support staff. It’s 2019. Get after it.

The team SHOULD be hiring the best of the best at every position in the organization and that includes sports science. They’d have to spend on it mind you and they’re behind the 8-ball (as usual), so they wouldn’t have a lot of leverage in negotiations.

I like what my friend SPR has said about analytics in a thread today,

https://twitter.com/TheOilKnight/status/1108455294286233600

Take a Hard Look at the Pro Scouts:

We’d take a long, hard look at the last five years of reports from anyone who said Ryan Spooner could help. From anyone who was on-side with acquiring Brandon Manning, Nikita Nikitin, Tobias Rieder, Anton Belov, Chris Wideman, Alex Petrovic…

Sure, some of those players go years back. But if that scout is still working for me, I want to see about two things: has he been making the same mistake all the way along, and if so, why is he still working for me?

The evaluation of pro players in this organization rates out at about D-minus. That means the pro scouting staff isn’t good enough.

Edmonton needs to acquire some right-now, step-into-the-lineup players. How on earth do we expect the same people who have made mistakes for a decade to have success this summer?

Was Spector taking a shot at Craig MacTavish there?

My feeling on the pro scouts is that they can only bring in so many reports on players and if the GM on hand doesn’t take that knowledge and put it to use, then what more can they do? Or what good are the scouts if the director of pro scouting is directing them to find moar grit?

The Oilers tried to bring back Matt Hendricks at the deadline for the same reason that Winnipeg re-acquired him. He brings locker rooms together. He has the respect of the players on every team he plays for and he loves playing hockey. He’ll do anything for his teammates.

Edmonton brought in Sam Gagner for the same reasons.

So I don’t have a problem with one more year of the current crop of pro scouts but I’d like to see the Oilers tack on another five new ones with some different thinking. I don’t think that Duane Sutter will be back next year, so a new director will be heading that group up.

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Package Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and get a top pairing defenceman.

We use Nugent-Hopkins for two reasons: The Oilers already have two top-six centremen, and Nugent-Hopkins is a very good player who has excellent value. He is the Oilers’ best chip, below the two obvious ones.

Edmonton does not have a legitimate, no-doubt, top pairing defenceman on their roster. So package Nugent-Hopkins — a good second-line centre on many teams — with an Adam Larsson, or more preferably, a Kris Russell or Andrej Sekera, and make a deal.

If it’s Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson, you should get your defenceman and a serviceable winger. If it’s the Russell or Sekera model, you take the D-man, maybe a prospect, but gain in the salary that goes out the door.

I’m not against using RNH to bring in an upgrade on defense. There are teams out there that would love a player like Nuge on their roster. I don’t see him as a massive loss if the Oilers move him. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a VERY good two-way pivot but he’s still not great on the faceoffs and his career high in points has come playing a good chunk of time with Connor McDavid.

The way I’d do it is if RNH were moved, the team would have to bring in a center who could float between 3rd line center and 2nd line center for those times that the coach puts Leon and Connor together.

So is that a player like Sam Reinhart? A guy who can float throughout the lineup and play every forward position? Is it a guy like Alexander Wennberg, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Brayden Schenn, or Nazim Kadri?

Jason Gregor and Ryan Rishaug brought up an interesting scenario,

RNH+Klefbom for Sam Reinhart+Rasmus Ristolainen

Personally, I’d keep Klefbom and replace him with Darnell Nurse. Then you’d have some balance on the back end. Ristolainen is a perennial 40pt/yr defenseman. He’s a massive SOB on the back end (ask Lucic), and he’s can move the puck. Reinhart will help on the PK and he’s a very versatile and high hockey IQ forward. Both are cheaper as well, now and in the future.

Buyout Milan Lucic:

Lucic asked for a trade last summer. If he asks for one again at the exit meetings, then buy him out and wave goodbye.

If he promises to spend the summer with a skills coach, shed as much weight as possible (he’s always been in great shape) and shows me that he wants to succeed in Edmonton, then give him the chance. Because a buy-out saves you about $1.4 million per season, which buys you a decent fourth-line winger.

Which Lucic already is.

Man. That’s a solid chunk of change to buy him out and I’m of the belief that the Oilers made some ground before the trade deadline on a deal to move him this summer.

I just think that the team should move on from him but in a manner that doesn’t eat up a bunch of their cap. A good GM should be able to trade him.

What I’m hearing is that this summer is gonna be a BOLD one in Edmonton but we’ve also heard that before and nothing crazy ever really happens in hockey anymore, does it?

So we wait and see… I hope that the Oilers absolutely blow the doors off this summer and create some mad drama for not only their fanbase but hockey in general.

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Oilers Speculation: What Ryan Rishaug REALLY Said Yesterday…

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Yesterday Ryan Rishaug had quite the impact on Oilers Twitter be it from his announcing of right-handed cannon-wielding Swedish defenseman Joel Persson being “locked up” by the Oilers or his radio hit on The Dustin Neilson Show where he was spitballing like a boss!

https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/996808838459338754

This is the tweet we’re going to focus on and it comes from former Oilers employee Tyler Dellow.

Well here is the transcript of the “proposal” section of the Rishaug interview on Dustin Neilson’s show that the tweet is talking about so that some context can be applied.

I will say that after the transcript part things get a bit… Emotional on my part. So you can stick around for that or you can take off after you read the Rishaug section. I may or may not say something I might or might not regret…

We pick up the conversation just as the Joel Persson talk ends…

DN – But in no way this means the end of a search for another right-shot dman do you think?

RR – No, it better not.

DN – I’m wondering if it does though? I’m wondering if they want to bring this guy in and give him an opportunity and then save their assets and not have to give up anything significant for a proven right-shot dman, you know?

RR – I don’t think so buddy. I think the Oilers are going to be big game hunting for their blueline. I think they’re going to be looking at big names and weighing out those options.

I think Peter Chiarelli being so vocal about having his first round pick in play, where that pick is, is a good pick in a good draft, and I think they’re going to be big game hunting. I don’t know exactly what it looks like, I don’t know how they do it but I don’t think they’re going to be complacent in trying fill this very obvious void.

Now I’ve been saying for a long time, it’s their no.1 need by a mile. I still maintain that and I think they’re going to try and be very aggressive until that need gets filled up. I don’t know if they’re going to be able to get it done but I do believe they feel that it’s a massive need and just figuring out what level to get it done at.

So whattya do? Do yoy get yourself somehow into the Ekman-Larsson play? Do you go in the Erik Karlsson direction? Well probably not necessarily in that direction. Do the Minnesota Wild make a move on Matt Dumba? With the draft that the Buffalo Sabres are about to have, is Rasmus Ristolainen all of a sudden potentially up for grabs?

Could you see the Buffalo Sabres saying, considering the pick they’re going to make at no.1, can they maybe move Ristolainen out and do they maybe look to bring a veteran Swede in to help work the blueline with their new young Swede? Is there potential for a Klefbom swap out to Buffalo maybe along with that pick?

I’m spitballing a lot of stuff here but my over-riding sense in it is that the Oilers will be aggressive in hunting some of the big game to see if they can fill that need on the back-end and if there’s something that makes sense, I think they’ll be aggressive in getting it done. 

Now, if they can’t find something that makes sense, then they probably fall back to their plan B or C options and I’m not really sure what all of those are but I do believe that the Oilers have identified this as a massive need because I’ve sort of been saying for a while that I continue to do this but I’m not sure if they agree but I get the sense that they’re going to be aggressive here. 

The Chia-haters hopped on that Dellow tweet like nobody’s business and imagine 99.9% of the folks that read the tweet didn’t listen to the spot and just jumped right to conclusions…

If you pay attention, Rishaug says over and over that the Oilers are going to be aggressive and at the end he adds, “IF it makes sense”.

Now as a fan, that’s where a lot of people divide. What makes sense to Chiarelli and what makes sense to the armchair GMs are very different things.

You had guys like TSN’s Scott Cullen just lapping that shit up. This guy isn’t even an Oilers supporter but he loves to lay into them…

“Oh woe is me… Please feel sorry for me because of the team I CHOOSE to cheer for.” How hard it must be tough to tweet for these guys when you’re jacking off that massive pity dick (Hat tip to Ryan Reynolds on that one). Clean up must be fun…

The story is so tiresome, isn’t it?

Has anybody even looked into why Ristolainen might be a better fit for the Oilers than Klefbom? Is it possible that a player could get traded for reasons apart from those that lie within the margins of a stats sheet?

But here’s the thing, it’s all for naught because it was Rishaug playing NHL 18 GM mode!!! But everyone just loved it, couldn’t get enough of it.

Not one of these SMRT Twitter characters thought why it would be a bad deal for Buffalo… Nobody said that Buffalo already is fully stocked on the left side BEFORE drafting Dahlin. None of these brainiacs mentioned that Buffalo would be insane to trade their best RH’d defender. A defender that has put up over 120 points in his last three seasons despite being on the worst team in the NHL during that time span.

Noooo. Why would they do that?

Would they mention that Rasmus Ristolainen has 9 FEWER POINTS than Oliver Ekman-Larsson or 21 MORE POINTS than Justin Faulk since the start of the 2015/16 season?

Of course not…

I’m 100% sure that these media guys, as well as the bloggers, are well aware of what the market value is on a player and that’s why they get paid the big bucks to cover the game from the seat of their pants.

Now, let’s be clear, I’m not fully in support of the SPECULATED trade proposal from Rishaug because that 10th overall pick is the stumbling point for me. I see the Oilers getting a good player there but I can see the logic behind Rishaug’s idea and we know that when Peter Chiarelli has zeroed in on his target, he’s willing to overpay to get it.

Now, that’s not to say that the Sabres couldn’t add to that to make me feel comfortable about moving that first rounder. I know that Sam Reinhart has been rumored to be on the move and that Sabres GM Jason Botteril is not happy at all with the current roster make-up.

I think another thing to add is that we all know that right-shot defenders and centres (especially righties) cost more than left-shot dmen. Hence the price tag Rishaug brought up.

Nurse/Larsson
Sekera/Ristolainen
Russell/Benning
Persson

I’ll tell you what, I do not mind the look of that because I value this team having a deep and talented back end full of NHL defensemen. And it just so happens the Oilers have an excess of LH’d defenders. That group of dmen (healthy) would rival that of any other team in the Pacific division and it wouldn’t cost the Oilers one of their good young forwards either.

So just as the Chia-haters have formed their judgement of Peter on his tenure as Oilers GM, that being 3 seasons so far, I have done the same with Oscar Klefbom and I’m led to believe that the sexy Swede has troubles staying healthy. This is a problem for me. If you can’t stay healthy, you can perform to your absolute best abilities. Why would I want a player who has this problem? This isn’t Peter Forsberg we’re talking about where we’ve got a player who simply dominates games when he’s healthy but simply has trouble doing so.

Can you remember the last time Oscar Klefbom scored a hat-trick in a game? What about the last time he had a fight or a penalty for that matter…

I would be happy if the Oilers acquired Rasmus Ristolainen but leave the pick out of it. Rishaug above mentioned how often Chiarelli has been saying the #10 is available, I just hope that it’s not burning a hole in his pocket and he does the right thing and keeps it.

Lastly, this PALES in comparison to what my source told me today about the other deals that have been brought up by other GMs to Chiarelli… Good Christ, if I post those, Oilers Twitter really will burn down… All I can say is the Oilers better have Ottawa and Arizona on their “blocked” list if Chiarelli wants to keep his job this summer.

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Projecting the Edmonton Oilers: Centers

Last time we talked I ventured into the realm of player point projections for the 2015-6 season. In my exuberance I got a little carried away on Taylor Halls totals. I know that 90 points isn’t likely a realistic number given that the Art Ross went to Jamie Benn last season with 87. Now I am not saying that it is impossible for Hall to get that high of a total just highly unlikely. The X-factor for how well Hall will produce is going to be the phenom. No I am not  talking about the Undertaker for all you WWE fans, although the ‘Taker has always been my favorite wrassler. Of course I am talking about Connor McDavid. We all know he will be an amazing player but what we don’t know is just how amazing and how soon. If the McSaviour steps in and immediately starts kicking ass and taking names then there may be the possibility that we will see Taylor Hall mentioned as an Art Ross candidate. Not likely but still possible. With that out of the way it is time to get to the projections for the centers.

Before I am going to start we will need to figure out just who these players are. We know that this position is finally a strength for the organization after years of not having 4 guys that can play in the world’s toughest league. This season we have three proven pivots in Nuge, Letestu, and to a smaller degree Lander. Lander came a long way last season in proving he belongs at this level and can be a complementary offensive player. His two-way play has always been up to par but with virtually no offense at the NHL level until this past season he was viewed as a bit of a tweener. Too good for the AHL but not good enough for the NHL. For whatever reason he took a massive step forward last season and the third line center position is his to lose in training camp. Obviously the fourth center that will be lifting asses out of seats for years to come is Connor McDavid. He is a guarantee for top 6 minutes from the outset and will get a ton of power-play time and a big zone start push. The kid has excelled at every level he has ever played so there is little reason to doubt that the trend will change to start the year. Now that we have got our list of competitors let’s get to it. Or as the immortal Jim Ross used to say, “Business is damn sure about to pick up!” I love that guy…

RNH

When we talk about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a player it is easy to forget that he is still only 22 years old and hasn’t even hit his peak years yet. As insane as it is to think, Nuge will still get better as a player. He is already a very solid two-way player but with another year of experience Ryan will likely be even better than before. How much better is open to debate but what isn’t open for debate is his importance to this team. Last season he proved that he can push the river without Taylor Hall to his left and is able of controlling the game when he is on the ice. There isn’t one part of RNH’s game that I feel is lacking. I would like to see him shoot the puck more but that would be the only real issue I would have with the kid. After missing 20 games in his rookie season, a year in which he was robbed of the Calder, Ryan has been a fairly durable guy even though there was some question in his draft year about whether his slight frame could handle the beating he would get. Over the past three seasons Nuge has only missed 16 games. Pretty damn good for a guy that people thought wouldn’t be able to handle the hitting at the NHL level. Last season we saw Nugent-Hopkins start with the usual suspects. Centering the top line with Hall and Eberle on his wings. When Hall was lost to injury Benoit Pouliot was given the opportunity to fill the enormous hole left in the absence of number 4, and he did fine. Well he did great but we don’t want to give Benny a swelled head.

After the post yesterday we already have our predictions for who Nuge will play with. My best guess is he will play a lot of time with Pouliot and Eberle. Their chemistry in the second half of the season was great and I don’t see any reason to change that now. So we know who the players but how are they going to be used? I doubt they will take a ton of defensive of draws, Lander and Letestu will likely get the lions share of those, but I doubt he gets the zone start push from previous years either. The cherry assignments are definitely going to the McDavid line. We need to put that kid in the best possible position for success. That means a ton of offensive zone starts and a lot of power-play time.

The question then is how much will this affect the output of the RNH trio? My answer to that is not a whole lot really. These three are going to see an over abundance of the neutral zone starts and should still be able to make hay out of it. Nuge last season played 76 games. He had 24 goals to go along with his 32 assists. The 56 points he totaled last season tied his career high while his 24 goals set a new career high. The best part about these stats is that his shooting percentage of last season is entirely sustainable. It is a higher than his career average to this point but if we remove the lock-out season where it was drastically low he is right around par for the course. Next season I see Ryan playing in pretty much every game or damn close to it and putting up very similar numbers despite a change in his zone starts. Nuge will hit the 20 goal mark again but little higher I think. I am going to say 22 goals and 33 assists. That’s 55 points for any of you that need a calculator to add it up. Are we concerned about this total? Not really, I think if Nuge an top 50 next year we are in good standing.

Connor McDavid

There is nothing I can say about this 18 year old kid that hasn’t already been said by someone. If you want some background information on this kid there is scads of articles out there to fill your little McD fix. I’ve also already established that I think he will play mostly with Taylor Hall on his left and if I have to pick one for the right it would likely be Teddy Purcell. Well Purcell until Novemberish, then I see Yakupov taking his rightful place in the top 6. So what will a season of Connor look like? This kid is going to do some amazing things I tell you. Fantastically amazing things. This kid is so good that he will be able to do things that we just don’t think are even possible! I know that we have to temper our expectations for this coming season but that is easier said than done. Every time Connor has come to a new challenge has not only completed it, he has absolutely crushed it!

The speed with which McDavid plays is unlike anything I have ever seen before. He seems to always have another gear to go to. It doesn’t matter what opposition seem to throw at him he always seems to not only persevere but excel. It is so hard to be anything less than exuberant when we talk about Connor, and because of it I have seen some pretty outlandish ideas about how his season could go. One post I read said that he would not only win the rookie scoring race but he would also win the Art Ross trophy as league leading scorer. There is a good chance the guess is right about the rookie race although guys like Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart will want to have something to say about that before all is said and done. So before we get to point predictions for the second coming of Gretzky I will make a few guesses about some accolades he will win this year. I think that yes he will be the rookie scoring race winner this year. No I don’t think he will win the Calder. Not that I don’t think he will be deserving but the league seems to not want Oilers rookies to take home that honor. Maybe it is our punishment for drafting first overall four times. Who knows. He will be at the all-star game and will make the all rookie team. I also think that McDavid will be the Oilers MVP this season. Those are my predictions, if I am right I expect glorious applause and champagne showers but if I am wrong I will categorically deny ever making any such statements.

After we have all dried our tears as the realization dawns on us that our favorite son likely won’t receive the proper respect that is due him. We can continue on safe in the knowledge that one day soon we will get to see Connor take us back to a long drink from Lord Stanley’s Cup. Now that I have warmed you to the cockles of your heart maybe even to the sub-cockles area, as Dennis Leary once said, we can move on to the point predictions. If we use the stats from the past season and adjust it to NHL levels using Gabriel Desjardins NHL equivalencies it would mean translate to roughly 21 goals and 35 assists. Of course when I figure those totals out I am pro-rating his numbers over a full 72 OHL season before I converted to NHL scoring estimates. So as we know McDavid played 47 games in the OHL last season and had 120 points. 44 goals and 76 assists. When we use that ad figure out the totals over a 72 game season it would look something like 67 goals and 116 assists. Those are absolutely insane numbers! Do I agree with the totals that Mr. Desjardins’ ratio suggests? Not necessarily. I think that he likely exceeds those numbers. He will receive a huge zone start push and will play a lot on the power-play which should hopefully be humming along under McLellan. My personal best guess for his production this season is 24 goals and 40 assists. In all reality I would be happy with anything above 50 points but I think Connor will have higher expectations for himself than I do. He is an intense competitor that won’t accept anything less than his best 100% of the time. What are your guesses for this young superstar?

Anton Lander

Anton Lander took some major strides last season once he finally had a head coach that trusted him and believed in charge of his usage. Lander finally developed the offensive consistency that media and fans alike have been hoping for since he first arrived in Edmonton. He played with a variety of players last season and that might have helped his numbers a little bit. Taylor Hall is one hell of a line-mate to have if you are expecting to provide offensively. In his 38 games last year Landy managed 6 goals and 20 assists. Fantastic numbers for a third line center, which is exactly where he will fit into the roster again this fall. The players on his wing this year won’t necessarily be of the same caliber as Hall but with guys like Yakupov and Korpikoski there should still be a decent contribution to goal total this year. For all we know the other wing could be filled with Leon Draisaitl. That would be a nice line to get to watch for the season!

This player to me is the hardest to forecast his numbers for next year because in all honesty I am not entirely sure of who he will play with. My best guess could be way off and that will have a big impact on his numbers. While his point totals are definitely a very important part of the picture there is a lot more to Anton Lander then goals and assists. Anton brings considerable two-way skill and decent face off skills to a team that sorely needs more defensively responsible players.

My projection for Lander is that his scoring levels will remain roughly where they were last year with 12 goals and 30 assists. Really nice numbers for a 3rd line center and depending on who his wingers are the numbers could move in either direction. I wish that I were more confident with my guess on this player but I am not at all. I hope that I am right or even pleasantly surprised as any measurable drop in scoring could be seen as a step backwards in his development and could spell the end of his career as an Oiler.

Mark Letestu

Mark Letestu is one of the newest Edmonton Oilers, joining the franchise on the opening day of free agency. He was signed to a three-year contract with a cap hit of 1.8 million dollars and will fill the vacant fourth line center position once filled by defensive stalwart and faceoff guru Boyd Gordon. I will confess I don’t know very much about the guy and don’t profess to know. For my requirements I read a few different sites breakdown of who the player is and what he will bring to the team. The most notable being from our friends over at the Oilers Rig. In the piece Alex Thomas, aka @alex_thomas14, gives his two cents on both Letestu and Sekera. If you haven’t read the piece you really should as Alex is one of the young shining up and comers in the Oilers blogging arena. I respect his opinions and his writing is generally very in-depth and informative. Should you have missed the article it is available to read here. I wouldn’t be a very good Beer Leaguer if I didn’t also mention that our very own Beer League Hero had an excellent post of his own  the subject that I recommend you to read to get a better idea of the player. If you have a hankering for more information read that piece here.

We can expect he will fill a defensive role for the most, similar to that of Gordon last season. His wingers will more often than not be Matt Hendricks and Rob Klinkhammer with Luke Gazdic making the occasional appearance. The trio is not going to be expected to do a lot offensively but will be tasked with taking the worst zone starts and a lot of time in their own zone. He has been adequate in a bottom six role in Columbus and will bring a lot more offense to the line up then Boyd Gordon could have ever hoped to. My guesstimate is that he will end the season with somewhere between 20 and 25 points and that is about as close to a point total that I am going to go on a player that I don’t know.

Those will be the four most used centers that we will have over the course of the 82 game schedule and it is a far deeper talent pool than a year ago. For the first time in a long time we will have competition at camp at every position, center included. It is an exciting time to be a Oilers fan for sure and I can only see it getting better from here on out. I can’t wait to see what the future brings for this fast young team! Thanks for reading and as always I want to hear from you! In the comments or on twitter, @cooke_rob. Next time we are going to look at the situation on right wing where there will be plenty of competition at amp for the four available slots. Remember if you like our great little site visit our T-shirt shop and get your very own Beer League Heroes shirts!

 

Cheers,

Rob