Monthly Archives: October 2016

Edmonton Oilers, Edmonton Oilers Post Game Report, Rob Cooke

G9: Oilers v. Canucks Post Game Wrap-up

Talbot

Here we sit, roughly 15 minutes before game number nine of the season and I can’t help but think about how much things have changed. We all knew that Connor was a true phenom and would change the Oilers all by himself but how many predicted that the change would be so dramatic and fast? I sure as hell did not! I expected improvement but not top of the western conference 10% of the way through the year.

After two shut-outs in the last three games I think the vast majority of Oiler fans are expecting another win tonight for the guys and if I was inclined to disagree, I’m not, by the way, I would be hard pressed to mount much of an argument in my favor.

I’m not expecting a blowout but I do think Edmonton is clearly the better team here and will win the 6th straight game to finish October with an 8-1 record. We are about two and a half hours from finding out either way! Craig Andersen returned to the Senators line-up after taking a short leave of absence to be with his ill wife. Best of luck to both of them as they continue through treatment and recovery.

Through the first twenty minutes the Oilers and Senators have not managed to bulge the twine in either net. In the period the Oilers were the better team for the most part. Except when they had the man advantage. Only managing two shots in six minutes of power-play time. On the plus side, the Oilers lead in shots, 7 to 4, in hits, 9 to 8, and are killing it in the face-off circle going 12-3 in the opening frame.

Connor, as always, had a couple good moments in the period. First, he stormed through basically the entire Senators team, going around Erik Karlsson-like he was standing still for a wrap around attempt. Then later in the period he drew the third power-play when he caught Derrick Brassard flat-footed in the neutral zone and made a nice move to the inside. That forced Brassard to take the hooking penalty.

Only other item of note in the first was a very minor fight between Zach Kassian and Mark Borowiecki. Wouldn’t say there was a winner or loser but Kassian was the only one to land a punch in the fight… Still goes down as a disappointing draw.

The second period proved little better as far as game action was concerned. The Nuge made a fantastic move that I am still not quite sure how he pulled off. He had two defenders all over him and he still managed to extract himself and the puck for a clear straight shot on the net. Unfortunately for the Oilers that was their best chance of the middle frame.

Ottawa scored the only goal of the game near the mid-way mark of the middle period off of some nice board work from Kyle Turris and Tom Pyatt. The result was a fantastic behind the back out front of the Oiler net to Mike Hoffman who beat Talbot short side to light the lamp.

The second ended with little else happening in the way of action and the Oilers went into the third period trailing for the first time this season, excluding the blow-out loss to Buffalo back in game three.

I read somewhere a few weeks back, I believe from Lowetide, that there are 25 games you will win no matter what and 25 you will lose no matter what. The rest are what make the difference between the play-offs and golfing early. Last night’s was one of the 25 that you lose no matter what.

Edmonton clearly was the better team on the night but there was zero chance that anything was getting past Craig Andersen in his first game back. The Oilers fired a ton of rubber at him in the third but to no avail. This was pre-destined. Andersen was on fire and when he did seem to be in some kind of trouble his defense cleared the puck out of danger quickly.

Hard to get too down on the game when Edmonton was playing fairly well against the boring trap coached Senators but it just wasn’t in the stars last night. Thankfully the next game is against the much-maligned Toronto Maple Leafs and I fully expect the Oilers to come out flying. Especially Connor McDavid, who will likely be playing in front of a lot of friends and family, after being held off the score sheet last night for the third time. I almost feel bad for what he will do to his hometown team tomorrow night.

The thing that fans need to remember is that one game does not make a season. We still have 73 left to go and there will be losses. Of that, we can be sure. How the guys respond Tuesday is the next big test for us. What happens Oilers fans? Let us know in the comments!

Cheers,

Rob

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

An Oilers Mean Regression

 

 

This won’t be a long one but the Oilers Twitterverse has been a pretty big shit show this morning. Not that it usually isn’t but I think since the team is actually winning and playing as they are, everyone is doing their best to find something to bitch about.

Today’s topic is:

When the Oilers finally regress, how much of a regression will it be?

To get the stats out of the way, the Oilers’ PDO (add team shooting and save %) is 104.7 which is actually quite high. It suggests the Oilers are on a bit of a lucky streak to start the year. Bruce McCurdy said in a recent Cult of Hockey podcast that he prefers his teams to have a higher PDO than a lower one. I reckon if the team is winning on a consistent basis, who cares where the PDO sits?

The way I see it, the hockey gods are having their way within the Pacific Division right now. What I mean is that there’s a great possibility that the combination of some random happenings (below) AND the Oilers playing very well and staying healthy could find the Oilers in the post-season and some good teams on the golf course.

Below is a list of those happenings I speak of:

  • The Los Angeles Kings goaltending health.
  • A Randy Carlyle led Anaheim Ducks team going with a young keeper in Gibson and Jonathan Bernier
  • An Arizona Coyotes team who thought they could go with as much youth as they are.
  • A Calgary Flames team with as many question marks in net as perhaps on defense.
  • The Vancouver Canucks being… Well, the Vancouver Canucks… They’re a one line team right now and their defense is in shambles.

The only team that I have zero qualms with is the San Jose Sharks. They’re sorted to go the distance again this year barring any unforeseen injuries.

So I look at the five teams who I mentioned above and I can see Edmonton jumping Arizona, Calgary, and Vancouver without much of an issue. I think a few will say Calgary has a chance but, in my opinion, the new coach and trying to sort out how to deploy that defense of his as well as hoping Brian Elliott can be consistently good every night will be a problem for the Flames. Hope… Drives a fanbase wild.

Now, heading into California, we’ve got LA and Anaheim with some early season hangups.

The Ducks for whatever reason decided bringing Randy Carlyle back to coach and trading starting netminder Frederik Andersen were good ideas… Now Andersen isn’t doing well in Toronto but that was expected because he’s no Carey Price. He’s a good keeper when he’s got a capable team in front of him. Perfect for Anaheim. I don’t believe Gibson is ready for the starting role and Bernier is a tire fire. IF Anaheim can’t get their season under control, there’s a very good chance the Oilers pass them.

The Kings success has a lot to do with playing a great possession game but they’re getting on in hockey years and they’re getting slower every year. Not only that but they rely heavily on their goaltending when their age and lack of foot speed is exposed. Luckily for them, in the past, they’ve had Jonathan Quick to save their butts. Not having him or a capable backup, since Jeff Zatkoff is out injured too, could have catastrophic consequences. Not only that but they’re not going to be able to go out and steal a goalie at this time of year, so some GM is going to get a good deal (Islanders?) if they decide to make a trade with LA.

So I don’t see the forthcoming regression being as bad as a lot of fans seem to think it will be but I think the Oilers playoff chances do hinge a bit on the luck (or continued lack thereof) of their Pacific Division rivals. If things continue to sour for those other teams, I think the Oilers will make the playoffs with ease.

To add to that, Bob McKenzie recently stated on his podcast that he reads early season trends as follows:

  • Pay no attention to anything that happens in the first two weeks of the regular season because it very well could be a mirage.
  • After three weeks, take note of what’s happened.
  • And after the fourth week, book it!

After Wednesday’s game in Toronto, we should be taking note of what the Oilers are doing according to McKenzie and on November 10th, after the Oilers game versus the Pittsburgh Penguins, we should have a VERY clear idea as to what we have.

After that Pens game that Oilers will have played 14 games. If they are 11-2-0, things are looking saucy. But if they are sitting at 7-7, then there’s clearly some major problems still residing within the team. I can’t see them dropping 6 games in a row at this point, though. Maybe a fair prediction would be something close to 10-4-0 if we take into account how well they are playing and the opposition coming up. I could see them dropping games to the Penguins, Rangers, and Red Wings but then again I thought St.Louis and Washington would give them more trouble than they did…

But we should be keeping an eye on the rest of the Pacific Division during this timeframe as well to see if their back luck continues.

Now Lowetide likes to go 20 games. I’m not sure if that’s a personal preference or perhaps that number appeases the fancy stats gods. Anyway, if we did that, it would take us to Nov.22 versus the Blackhawks.

So… We wait.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments below.

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Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

G8: Oilers vs. Senators – Eight Would Be Great!

 

The Oilers are back home for a game before heading out on their first real road trip of the year where they’ll face some pretty tough Eastern Conference opponents like the reigning Stanley Cup champs, a surprise Detroit Red Wings team, and both New York teams. Oh! And who can forget the first installment of Connor Vs. Auston?!

But tonight’s opposition is the Ottawa Senators who have just come off of a 5-2 thumping at the hands of the Calgary Flames. The Sens are 4-3-0 this season and one would think they’d have a much better record given the quality of players they employ. Alas, it’s early in the season and they could pull off five or six wins in the next 10 days and then we won’t be talking about how slow they’ve come out of the gate.

Tonight, I’ll be keeping my eye on two players for the Senators; Erik Karlsson (because you can’t help but notice him) and Mark Stone (as always when the Oilers play the Sens). I love the way Stone plays the game and to me, he’s one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL. Watch how good he is at taking the puck away from other players. He’s a genius at it and last year was first in the NHL with 128. That was 51 more takeaways than the next guy… From an Oilers perspective, Taylor Hall lead the team with 61.

I’m not sure if Craig Anderson will be in net or not given that he has just rejoined the team after receiving some very unfortunate news about his wife and her recent Cancer diagnosis but I hope that the Oilers fans do the right thing and give him a very large ovation.

As for the Oilers, I’ll be keeping a watchful eye on their star rookie, Jesse Puljujarvi. I feel like the manchild is getting better and more confident with each game that he plays. Last time out he nearly scored on a 2-on-1 and you could actually see the frustration on his face after it. He’s engaging physically and he’s already been quite a good two-way player so far this season and his CF% of 51.5 on the year (source) tells us he’s been doing alright in the fancies. I should ask G Money where the WoodMoney stats have him sitting.

I think that it is safe to say we’ll all be watching Cam Talbot closely to see if he continues his hot run because it is of the utmost importance to this team to have and keeping having the goaltending it has been getting.

Darnell Nurse has been the topic du jour lately and for once he’s not getting shit on by the oilogosphere and local media alike. The former Sault St. Marie Greyhound is really coming into his own alongside Eric Gryba and that’s stellar for this defence, no? He’s tied for the lead in team scoring (1g 2a 3pts) for defensemen and owns a very respectable CF% of 49.1. Come next year, when I suspect the Oilers will be looking to add another top-end defenseman via free agency or trade, Darnell Nurse could very well make that an extremely difficult decision for Peter Chiarelli if he continues to progress in the manner his is.

My prediction for tonight? An Oilers win to go 8-1-0. My belief is that this Sens team is hoping for an off night for the McDavid line but I can’t see that happening. I want to say that Leon Draisaitl is going to have a good game tonight though and I wonder if we’ll see Max McCormick/Darnell Nurse part 2? Probably not… Enjoy the game!

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Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, G Money

It’s way too early for this dashboard

It’s not enough data!

Normally for a shot metrics dashboard like this, you’d prefer to have at least 10 and preferably 20 games of data.

But I’m showing it to you anyway!

The reason is because, well, it actually does have a few interesting things embedded in it, and I’m going to walk you through what I see. Would be interested to hear if you observe anything else!

So without further ado …

Here is the dashboard, annotated with numbered points of interest (click to embiggen, an explanation of the dashboard is at the end if you haven’t seen it before):


Analysis

So referring to the numbers above, and remembering the caveat about how early as it is, here’s what I see of interest:

  1. Oh what a surprise, the McDavid line tops the board!  The biggest thing to note here is that big discrepancy between McDavid’s blue Corsi line and his purple Danger line. Most players I expect will have those converge over the season. I expect with McDavid that divergence is going to stay.
  2. Mark Fayne only played the one game but hey, it was really good!
  3. I still think the best thing for his development (and the cap situation) is for Jesse P to spend a good chunk of time in the AHL.  But these are nice numbers for a raw rook.
  4. Oscar and Adam aka KlefLar aka AdamBom are giving up an unhealthy edge in shot attempts, but are doing very nicely on the danger aspect.  As I noted in point #1, this is a mild cause for concern, as these two tend to converge over time.  However!  Larsson has shown for the last couple of seasons that he is a better danger suppressor than he is a shot suppressor, so I expect that we may see this ‘poor shot, good danger’ being a persistent effect too. I can live with that!
  5. You can clearly see the recent uptick for Gryba and Nurse – they’ve played two really solid games in a row.
  6. Russell and Sekera started very strongly but have been falling off the pace the last while. This is what a lot of the “Russell warners” suggested was likely to happen.  I don’t think it’s overly indicative either way, and have very much liked both Russell and Sekera’s game so far.  But it’s something to keep an eye on.
  7. Like Nurse and Gryba, Nugey had a rough start to the season, but the last couple of games have been really solid, and against Vancouver I thought Nugey was the best of the Oiler forwards.

The other notable issue is that performance of the team outside of the McDavid line is a significant concern.

Those are the main things I see on this dashboard this early in the season.  There are other things of note (like Pitlick’s shot metrics vs his 20% sh%!, but those are exactly the kinds of things that it really is too early to comment on. I’m more interested in some of the early trends around the key players and prospects).

How about you?  See anything else interesting?

PS. Dashboard Explanation

If you haven’t seen this dashboard (I tweet it out regularly through the season, and will do more of these walkthroughs here at BLH every 20 or so games), here is how to read it:

  1. Every player with even a single game will show up.  Blue background is a forward, yellow is for defensemen.
  2. The list is sorted by raw Corsi differential
  3. The blue/brown trace shows you raw Corsi differential over the course of the season so far. Blue means above breakeven, brown is below.
  4. The purple line shows my Dangerous Fenwick metric, which takes unblocked shots and adjusts them for danger (based on shot type and distance)
  5. Obviously, the farther above the line, the better!
  6. But really what you’re looking for is things like trends, hot and cold streaks, big divergences between raw and danger metrics, and so on
  7. I call it a dashboard because in a single image it gives you a really clear look on how every player on the team is doing over the course of the season, and that’s not easy to do!
  8. Feel free to tweet questions at me @OilersNerdAlert. You can also post questions in the comment section below, but for some reason my comments get eaten on a regular basis, so I might not be able to respond!
Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

G8: Oilers @ Canucks – Going for 7

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Our Edmonton Oilers are walking into Vancouver tonight in the midst of a paradigm-shifting journey for the ages but the adventure is not without its doubts…

  • Are these Oilers for real?
  • When will the other shoe drop?

I struggle with these queries as well and I don’t think you should be ashamed or feel any less of a fan if these questions float around in your head each time the Oilers play too. 10 years of losing, non-playoff hockey, and the scores of “sure-fire” NHL prospects gone down the drain, there should be some lingering feelings.

I really want to believe that this team is good now but I have to force myself to wait until at least game 20. That seems to be the benchmark in which the wise have chosen and I cannot argue with that. We don’t know how this team will react to an injury to a major player like Connor McDavid, Adam Larsson, or Cam Talbot. Nor do we know if the team can pick itself up if the goaltending does come back to Earth. Can the team afford a blip in the radar?

The Canucks are next and I really feel like this is another test for the team. A test the boys have failed once already this season. Remember the Buffalo game? How could you forget? Jack Eichel and Evander Kane were injured so it was supposed to be a gimme for the Oilers, right? Not so much said the hockey gods.

Well, Chris Tanev and Alexandre Burrows are out for the Canucks tonight. Not that either of them are equivalent to Eichel and/or Kane but they are still important pieces for Vancouver, Tanev more so than Burrows these days. But this is still a dangerous team in my opinion and they shouldn’t be taken lightly.

Loui Eriksson was signed to flank the Sedins and create a sort of Swedish super line but he has yet to score, so he’s going to be hungry and you know that coach Willie Desjardin is going to try his damnedest to get the Sedins on while Nurse and Gryba are out there. So, I hope that the boys are on the ball or it could be the Swedish trio eating them for dinner.

Now that’s not taking anything away from the Oilers top line of Lucic-McDavid-Eberle. In fact, that is one of the best lines in the league right now, if not THE best. We should be so lucky…

I’m writing this before the line-ups have been announced so I wonder if Cam Talbot gets the rest tonight and Jonas Gustavsson gets a start? Jim Matheson seems to think that the Swede will get his 1st start in Detroit on the latter half of the Oilers’ first back-to-back (Isles/Red Wings) early in November. I wouldn’t take out Talbot if I were McLellan though. Stay with the hot hand and Talbot’s is one of the hottest in the league right now.

Would you take out Puljujarvi and stick Slepyshev back in though? Some have said Pulju’s best game was versus the Capitals but I’m not so sure. He had his moments but if we were comparing him to the likes of Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, William Nylander, or Mitch Marner, I’d say he’s still got a ways to go. It’s a shame really, it really seems like the team is hell bent on forcing this kid into the league. Not that 3rd line minutes is a bad spot to be in for a rookie, I’m just thinking they could do better with him. Then again, maybe they’re waiting on Drake Caggiula? Who knows? I just don’t see the harm in a 5 game stint down in Bakersfield for the grinning Finn.

WHAT I’D LIKE TO SEE

  • A couple of more points for RNH. It was great to see him chalk up a couple of apples vs. Washington, now how about a goal against Vancouver whilst shutting down the Sedins?
  • Jake Virtanen and Darnell Nurse drop the mitts. It’s time for Jakey-boy to finally atone for that hit at the rookie showcase tourney in Penticton on McDavid last year.
  • Ryan Miller (if he’s starting) get his first loss in regulation time against Edmonton.
  • Connor McDavid blow that scoring lead wide open on Auston Matthews.
  • The battle between Milan Lucic and Erik Gudbranson. Should be a beauty!

The Canucks have lost three on the trot here and have score 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 7 games. This is a grand opportunity for the Oilers to grab some key Pacific Division points!

What are you looking forward to seeing tonight? Let us know in the comments below and maybe pick up a t-shirt in the meantime. Thanks!!

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Or are you a Henrik Sedin person?
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