Monthly Archives: October 2016

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

Capital Punishment: Oilers Thump Ovechkin and Co.

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I’ll freely admit that I thought the Oilers’ 5-1-0 record going into last night’s game was very much in jeopardy. Washington is an NHL powerhouse and has been for years. From the top of the roster right through to the coaching staff, the Capitals are an elite NHL team. But yesterday evening a different story was written.

Is there a new sheriff in town? Maybe…

I’d still like to see them dominate one or two more upper-echelon NHL teams before making that jump to the “Oilers are a Western Conference Power” train car. And We’ll have to wait a bit for that as the next three opponents for Edmonton are Vancouver (Do we really think they’re worthy of a 4-2-1 record?), Ottawa (These guys are 4-2-0 too?!), and Toronto (Nobody is going to care about the standings in this game, McDavid v. Matthews part 1!). So we wait until Nov. 4th against the New York Rangers.

Now getting back to the game versus the Capitals, I let out a huge sigh of relief when Nugent-Hopkins and Benoit Pouliot combined for the Oilers first goal. I had been giving it to Nuge on Twitter before the game had started and he showed me by getting 2 points when all was said and done, both assists on goals by Pouliot.

When the Oilers went into the 3rd period up 2-0 I was still feeling a bit cagey and then Ovechkin scored and I thought to myself, “Is this how it ends?” But then the Capitals started to open things up and send in the extra man on the forecheck, which, in any other season would result in the Oilers’ defense collapsing under the pressure and throwing the biscuit up the wall to a winger who wasn’t prepared because they were already on their horse out of their zone looking for that hail mary pass.

Something has changed.

This time when the opposition put the pressure on Edmonton, the boys didn’t collapse, they were collected and cool. The Capitals had possession in the Oilers zone but they were the ones that felt the pressure and it was their turn to give the puck away as Caps rookie (and former junior teammate of Connor McDavid), Andre Burakovsky, tried to force one through into the slot and the puck took a deflection that landed right on Jesse Puljujarvi’s stick to which he tapped up to McDavid and they were off to the races! A 3-on-2 with Alexander Ovechkin barrelling down from behind but it didn’t matter as the speed of McDavid and Puljujarvi couldn’t be matched. I actually thought that Pulju was going to get his first goal right there because it looked like it went in but it wasn’t to be as Holtby’s post saved the day, the only problem being it bounced out the other side where “Big Rig” Pat Maroon was to clean things up.

*My bad! I totally thought Puljujarvi hadn’t excited his first goal yet. Thanks to you guys for shaming me for my mistake  :p*

3-1 Oilers and there was no looking back.

Milan Lucic scored on the PP later in the period with a masterful tip which must’ve lead everyone on the Capitals’ bench wondering why nobody was marking him…

As each game goes by this season I see these Oilers grow into the sort of team that we’ve been clambering for for years. A big team with speed, skill, and smarts; and goaltending that we can rely on. Don’t ask me how Talbot is doing this but I hope he doesn’t burn out anytime soon. It’d be a shame for him to pull the ol’ Khabibulin and rip the carpet out from beneath our feet.

Speaking of Talbot, how about TJ Oshie putting the “o” in assh*le as he was cross-checking Talbot in the thigh? Check it out below.

 Then there is

Then there is THIS clickbait from Russian Machine Never Breaks entitled “Did Cam Talbot Deserve a Match Penalty for Punching TJ Oshie in the Face?”

Are you kidding me? TJ Oshie deserved to get kicked out of the game for intent to injure if anything. Honestly, tell me how cross-checking a goalie in the tight repeatedly is an attempt at playing the puck? The kicker is when the linesman saved Oshie from further beating by laying on top of him as if he were some sort of grenade…

Cam Talbot did the right thing in my opinion and it’s a shame that neither Gryba nor Nurse could get their hands on Oshie any more than they did at that time.

Just a quick note on Jesse Puljujarvi.

The big Finn is slowly coming along. Last night I noticed him gaining a bit more confidence with the puck and he’s firing that puck but he still doesn’t look fully engaged. He’s not going into the board battles 100% and he’s staying to the outside quite a bit. Anton Slepyshev has looked opposite to that so far and in my opinion, he should be the one on Nuge’s RW. I reckon they’ll keep Pulju and play him his 9 games at least but I hope they do send him down to Bakersfield. Then again, who knows? It might just click for him at game 15 but as of now, it’s not clicking.

So next up the Oilers will play the Vancouver Canucks and to me, this is another Buffalo Sabres-like match-up. The Oilers had better take them seriously even though the rest of the league isn’t. Bo Horvat has had his way with the Oilers since coming into the league, Jake Virtanen will be a thorn in the side of McDavid all night and there’s that shiny new 1st line of Sedin-Sedin-Eriksson that had better not be overlooked.

That being said, the Oilers can capitalize on the Canucks defense and/or its goaltending. I wonder if Ryan Miller will have the Lucic Flu come game time?

The points that Edmonton gain vs. their Pacific Division opponents are of the utmost importance as they’ll need them when the schedule starts to get more challenging and especially if they’re in a fight for a playoff position.

What did you think about the game? Are you becoming more and more convinced that the Oilers are for real or are you still a bit reserved about this new feeling and waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Let us know in the comments below!

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Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, G Money, NHL

Vital Signs – Late October 2016 Edition

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Every once in a while, I do a ‘vital signs’ analysis on the team.  I look at a variety of indicators that give us a look under the hood of how the team is doing on a number of important indicators.

Why do I call them important?

Because they tend to predict how well the team is going to do in the future much better than do the above the hood indicators like goals and win-loss record. The under the hood indicators tell us whether recent success (or failure) is likely to sustain.

Now that said, it is very early days, and so these numbers are going to shift around a lot (unstable condition, a symptom of life). Even so, they do carry a little bit of information right now, so the peek under the hood isn’t entirely futile. And it supports the idea of staying level headed – something that becomes all the more important when the team rockets off to the best start in many years!

The Vital Signs Monitor

To make the measures a little easier to review, I take my inspiration from the Star Trek vital signs monitor, to wit:

The main difference when using this idea for hockey is the switch in colour scheme. Unlike vital signs where normal is good and high or low is bad, with hockey the middle tends to be good (for a middle pack team), the high numbers are often unsustainable, and the bad numbers you hope will rebound. So we adjust.

Let’s see how that looks for Our Oilers (click to embiggen; data from corsica.hockey):

Down below, I explain the rationale for the indicators I’ve used.  If you’re not interested in such arcanery, just pay attention to the rankings for overall, EV offense, EV defense, special teams, and what I call ‘unpredictables’ (sh% and sv%, which are volatile and for most teams without either elite or terrible goaltending tend to move strongly towards the midline as the season progresses).

What’s the Frequency, Neal?

First, before we mull on this chart specifically, take a minute to think on what you think the chart should say by the end of the year. Are the Oilers a top 10, middle 10, or bottom 10 team?

In my view, there are some terrific strengths (McDavid, C depth, the new top pair) married to some real flaws (backup goalie, right wing depth, not enough righties on defense). I’d call this a mid pack team – I don’t expect the current record to sustain, but I don’t expect a fall all the way back to historic depths either.

IMO

In that context, this vital signs set actually looks OK to me.

  • Sh% is high and will likely come back to earth.
  • Sv%? Well, it’s not out of the question that the Oilers have a Top 10 goalie if Talbot stays healthy.
  • The PP shot rates give me great cheer. These are excellent numbers, and exactly what you’d hope to see a team loaded at forward able to do. Huzzah!
  • The PK shot rates cause some concern, and that SA60 number needs to come up big time.
  • The EV CF% is not very good, but most of that is the poor shot rates against. Some of that is score effects, as the Oilers have opened up the score a few times. But it is concerning. Like a few others, we’d like to see it move up towards the middle as the season progresses.
  • The xGF numbers are higher than the CF numbers. Both have comparable predictivity, so I’d expect the two of them to converge in the middle. And middle is good.  By the way, in December of last year the trend was reversed – the Oilers were having trouble converting their shots to dangerous chances, so this is not a bad place to be.

Bottom Line

I’m usually quite curmudgeonly when I look at the Oilers fancystats.  They haven’t been good over most of the last decade – and they’ve been right.

This year, though, I’m a little encouraged. Overall, this is kind of where the Oilers should be if they are to be a middle tier team.  As long as the raw shot metrics (CF/CA) move towards the danger metrics (xG) and stay somewhere in that middle lane, life is good.  We’ll keep our eyes peeled.

But there’s a bright side to the great start, even if it’s unsustainable. Because the early points are banked, they can’t take them away, and other teams have ridden an early hot streak and late season mid-tier play to a playoff berth.

So why not us?

Happy i.e. Ungloomy Halloween!

Addendum – Metrics Rationale

Ferda boys.  Ferda!

I use these metrics, for the following reasons.

1 – CF% (5v5 Corsi For %) is the single best predictor of future success we have (it’s not great, but it’s as good as we’ve got).  I break the components of this down into rates to look at the offense and defense separately.

2 – I roll in the corsica.hockey expected goals (xG) to get a sense of whether the shot attempts levels that Corsi is giving us are translating into dangerous chances.  Again, also looking at offense and defense rates broken down.

3 – I look at shot rates on the special teams. I don’t use Corsi in this case, because I’m not interested in possession so much – the team on the powerplay should have possession as a given! Rather, I look at how many unblocked shots the team gets on net (or gives up). This is a sustainable skill on powerplays.  I add in the expected goals, again to incorporate the degree of danger for and against.

4 – Just for fun, throw in the shooting and save percentages. These don’t tend to stick or predict very well, but usually if they are unusually high or low, you can expect them to move back towards the middle as the season progresses.

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Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Prospects, Rumors

The Oilers Best Start in Over 30 years

Pinch me because I’m not really sure this is actually happening. Some have said the Oilers would improve this year, some said they might be in the playoff mix for a wildcard spot, and some have even gone as far as to say the Oilers will be a playoff team… But color me shocked, I didn’t expect the boys to come out of the gate like this, but I like it.

Just a quick note on the Heritage Classic.

These are the kinds of games the Oilers would play in the past and fold up like lawn chairs due to the kind of pressure the Jets put on them at the beginning. Not anymore.

There’s some buy in to what the coaching staff is selling and this team is finally leaning (mostly) on veterans instead of rookies. McDavid aside, the men with the experience are paying HUGE dividends right now. The team is getting its scoring from all lines, the defense is chipping in and the pillars of the roster are staying healthy.

The Jets came out guns ablaze and hit the Oilers hard but the boys from YEG didn’t flinch. They took the barrage of gunfire and body shots and countered back with great success. These Oilers look as if they can finally hold off a team when they’ve got the lead. Now whether that is due to a veteran defense or the younger players getting better or stellar goaltending, I’d have to dig in a bit more but the team is finally looking like a TEAM. Hallelujah!!

Thirty years?!! That’s insane! I was 5 years old and the Oilers were being talked about in the same vein as Bowman’s Canadiens or Arbour’s Islanders. They were a dynasty just taking shape.

Is this rendition of the Oilers a dynasty just taking shape?

I think it’s a bit foolish to start there right now but what if they make it to 10 wins and 2 losses? Do we start believing then? Should we calm the F down because Washington is coming to town or should we stay on this high because the Oilers just handled the St.Louis Blues like they were just another team in the West?

It is hard not to get excited right? Connor and the boys are making for some exciting times in the YEG with this start. The roster is working so well together that you have to wonder if Chiarelli is a mad genius… Would Edmonton be 5-1-0 with Hall and Yakupov in the roster and sans Lucic and Larsson?

Hall has yet to score a 5×5 goal in New Jersey but I believe there are people out there that reckon he’ll do more for the Devils than Larsson will do for the Oilers. I respectfully disagree and this is why:

  • Unless Hall gets traded again, he’ll never play with the amount of talent he played with in Edmonton ever again. He WAS the man in Edmonton and had an embarrassing amount of offensive support around him but unfortunately didn’t have the defensive support. So he is basically back to square one in New Jersey.
  • He might lead the Devils in scoring but it’s likely he won’t hit the statistical highs that he’s being touted to hit.
  • Larsson has been THE MAN since the season started in Edmonton. I’ll defer to G-Money’s blog for the following quotes (Click the links to head to the blog):
    • G1 – “Similarly, Klefbom and Larsson were solid, but ended with poor numbers. The danger adjusted numbers tell the story: they were both positive on the night. So a lot of those outside shots probably were against the bulletproof KlefLar.  Checking the head to head, Larsson was hard matched against Johnny Cocky, so that’s a real shutdown result. That’s exactly what Larsson’s numbers in New Jersey suggested he would bring.  Keep it up!”
    • G2 – “Larsson is a guy that shows a consistent reduction in shot quality against.”
    • G5 – “You *have* to check out the rink map of shots against Klefbom and Larsson. Unbelievable. And they were matched against the Tarasenko line.”

    • G6 – “Klefbom and Larsson were masterful defensively (once again – check out the rink map).”
  • The name of the game is defense folks and Adam Larsson is doing his job in a masterful manner.

Now I would spit out some stats for you but I’m on a kick with the hockey buzzword of the year so far, #SmallSampleSize. So the whole Hall vs. Larsson comparison could very well be a hypocritical approach to it given we’re all of 6 games into the year. But I’ve watched the Devils games because I’m curious to see how Hall is doing on that team and he’s been really entertaining apart from not scoring 5×5. He’s a very dynamic hockey player and I’ll never take that away from him. Is he in the top 5 for left wings in the NHL… I’ll debate that.

I will say this with some confidence, I believe the trade will go down in history as slanted towards the Oilers when all is said and done.

https://twitter.com/TravisDakin/status/789288623430590464

Chiarelli is the GM of the best team in the league right now but an idiot he might be for clearing out the two biggest distractions in the dressing room. Hell, you could say the three biggest distractions if you include Justin Schultz.

Now as for Nail Yakupov, boy has he got his mojo back eh? He’s flying out there for the Blues. Good for him, the better he does for St.Louis, the better the draft pick Edmonton gets. And don’t sit there and tell me that Chiarelli is an idiot for getting what he did. Everybody who follows hockey knows that Chiarelli was shopping him hard for a 3rd round pick at the draft and even then nobody would bite. That value dropped to a 5th rounder in training camp. So how exactly did he mismanage that deal? As it looks right now, he’s going to get more than he ever dreamed of getting for him and now Yakupov is Doug Armstrong’s headache to sort out in the offseason.

https://twitter.com/TravisDakin/status/789289291650363392

Those are some nice positive sentiments eh? Surely this gentleman is a season ticket holder for the Oilers. 

BOLD prediction alert! A second rounder who is unlikely to score 15 in his ENTIRE career… It’s always possible but I imagine it’s just as possible as the Oilers drafting a 3rd rounder who turns into the 2nd highest scorer in NHL history… —->>>

But what about trading for someone who stops 15 goals? It’s a novel approach. Groundbreaking perhaps.

GOAL COUNT (as of 10/24/2016)

Tyler Pitlick: 3
Taylor Hall: 3 (zero 5×5)
Nail Yakupov: 2
Zack Kassian: 2

Tyler Pitlick is a 4th line grinder who averages about 8 or so minutes a game and Zack Kassian is a middle-six tweener, yet here they are equalling the production of two 1st overall picks… #SmallSampleSize

What are Hall’s and Yakupov’s excuses?

It doesn’t matter what they are! Look at the amazing team in front of you and bask in its wonderment.

I can’t really stand the Oilers fans who’d rather pump the tires of the players going out than the ones on the team they cheer for. And criticizing each and every move the Oilers make must be exhausting. I don’t believe they really know how lucky they are to actually have a team in Edmonton right now. Get in touch with Les Alexander if you don’t believe me. (Link)

I really want to hop on this train called “Playoffs” so bad but I’m afraid if I do, the Oilers might revert back or someone of some importance on the team might get hurt. So I’m going to temper my expectations right now and enjoy the games one at a time.

And therein lies the key component to loving your team. You cannot do it unless you enjoy watching it. So do that Oilers fans. Enjoy every second of Connor McDavid blitzkrieg-ing the opposing defenses with his speed and puck handling. Enjoy each and every licking that Milan Lucic lays on the other team. Enjoy how long it takes Jordan Eberle to dust off the puck when he shoots. Take it all in when Adam Larsson wallpapers the other team’s winger or scoots himself out of trouble in his own end. Soak it up when Cam Talbot saves the Oilers asses when they’re playing poorly. Love it when Letestu scores on a breakaway, Pitlick scores a goal but pays the price to do so, or when Kris Russell blocks another shot.

Enjoy the team because this could very well be the beginning of something magical.

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Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL

What Should the Oilers Do with Nuge?

*Editor’s note* This is a guest post from former BLH contributor Micah Kowalchuk. He’s been gracious enough to give us this post and we thought it was pretty thought provoking. Please, take a gander and let us know what you think in the comments below! Enjoy!*

Notes on the Oilers 4 games in:

McDavid, Lucic and Eberle continue to have very high advanced stats. The problem is, after them, the only other guy in the positives on the team is Maroon. In fact, Pouliot, RNH, Pitlick and Letestu are all performing incredibly bad right now.

There’s an obvious need for a change-up at forward. RNH, as much as we all love him, he’s brutal at face-offs right now and he’s not generating any points. There’s all this talk about making Draisaitl a winger for RNH, but Drai’s actually winning faceoffs and has size. It’s time to think different.

First Line

McDavid needs a fast, skilled LW with a two-way game. Congrats, RNH is now his left wing. I know, I know, we want toughness up there to protect him, etc. We’ve got lots of guys out there to do that, let’s give McDavid the speedy winger he needs, and see what this group can do with speed to burn. RNH-McDavid-Eberle.

Second Line

Let’s go for a change-up, something interesting. Lucic-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi can go out as a change-up second line, pure power and possession. I know, Puljujarvi hasn’t been performing as well, but let’s give him Lucic as a mentor and give this line a shot, this line would probably fit Puljujarvi much better.

Third Line

Ok, Cags is out long term, puts a damper on it… We’ve got Lander, Letestu and maybe Pitlick as centers here. We can give this line some good wingers in Maroon and Kassian, but at this point, I’d be accepting that Caggiula’s not going to be NHL ready any time soon, he’ll need some recovery time in the AHL. Now, at this point, I’m writing off the $4mil that is Pouliot, if RNH is a first line winger, we really can ditch Pouliot.

Fourth Line

And I’m probably going to run with a 4th line made up of Lander-Letestu-Pitlick with Slepyshev pinch-hitting in here wherever it works best. So, it’s time to deal Pouliot off for something resembling a 3C, and there’s probably a team we can find who’d be interested. Just as an example, let’s say the Oilers were to call up Toronto and offer Pouliot and a pick for Bozak, a right-shot center. The Oilers can then go Maroon-Bozak-Kassian as a 3rd line, double up on the power crew up front.

I know, we’re 3-1, but we’re 3-1 because McDavid’s dragging the team along, the RNH line isn’t working at all. We do need to address the secondary scoring at some point because they’re a very expensive tire-fire, which is why the suggestions (RNH + Pouliot have combined for $10mil in salary and 2 points in 4 games, this needs to be fixed).

RNH-McDavid-Eberle, Lucic-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi, Maroon-Bozak-Kassian, Lander-Letestu-Pitlick (with Slepy fighting for a spot). And, if Caggiula does come back and Puljujarvi does need to go to the AHL, Bozak’s also more than capable of sliding to the right side and pulling his weight, and he’d probably look pretty good on that 2nd line with Lucic and Draisaitl.

The Defense

Klefbom is, right now, the third best LHD on the team. If you were to go by stats here, it should be Sekera-Larsson, Nurse-Russell, Klefbom-(insert whoever). I’ve never been a big Nurse fan, but him and Sekera are the only two + CORSI guys this year, he’s showing up to play. Larsson’s hanging in there with some very tough minutes, but Klefbom’s actually dragging down Larsson’s performance. It’s time to slide him down the line-up a little to get his feet wet. Also, I’d probably go Sekera-Russell, Nurse-Larsson, because Nurse and Larsson actually look pretty damn good together.

This brings us to the problem of who gets that 3rd pairing RHD spot with Fayne injured, Davidson injured, and Gryba not looking all that good in the spot. Sure, we can bring in Benning, but that doesn’t seem ideal right now.

Me, I’d see if Wisniewski has actually signed that KHL deal for sure, but that’s just a thought.

Thanks for reading folks.

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Bakersfield Condors, Edmonton Oilers, Michael Gerber, NHL, Prospects

Bakersfield and Oiler Recall Options

It’s only October 20th but the list of injuries is stacking up quickly on the Oilers. Who in Bakersfield is fit for a call-up should any more arise?

Seven of the top eight players (as far as points per 60 minutes) from the 2015/16 Bakersfield season are not available for call-up. They were:

Name P/60 Where are they?
Josh Winquist 3.046 Not in Oilers System
Rob Klinkhammer 2.401 Not in Oilers System
Tyler Pitlick 2.243 On Oilers
Matt Ford 2.205 Not in Oilers System
Marco Roy 2.075 Not in Oilers System
Jujhar Khaira 1.919  Available
Anton Slepyshev 1.856 On Oilers
Bogdan Yakimov 1.788 In KHL on loan

 

The candidates for NHL duty this year are:

Bakersfield NHL Forward Prospects
Player Position G/Gp Prim P/GP P/60 5 on 5 Rank AHL GF% Age NHL Salary NHL Experience Waivers?
Taylor Beck RW 0.34 0.52 2.138 201 56.3 24          650,000  87 Games Yes
Jujhar Khaira C/LW 0.204 0.469 1.917 280 47.7 21          875,000  15 Games No
Greg Chase RW 0.056 0.278 1.726 351 64.3 20          715,000  0 Games No
Kyle Platzer C 0.085 0.191 1.46 467 40.7 20          735,000  0 Games No
Mitch Moroz LW 0.128 0.231 1.283 547 58.8 21          875,000  0 Games No
Braden Christoffer LW 0.03 0.152 0.735 27.3 21          650,000  0 Games No
Patrick Russell RW Did Not Play 2015/16 23          925,000  0 Games No
Jere Sallinen C Did Not Play 2015/16 25          792,500  0 Games No

 

Taylor Beck and Jujhar Khaira are the most likely candidates up front. Both have some NHL experience and are capable of a third or fourth line role.

Khaira had a two goal game to start the season, followed that up with another two points in game 2, and is far more important to the future of the Oilers than Beck so he likely gets the first nod should the bosses come calling.

 

Bakersfield NHL D Prospects
Player Position G/Gp Prim P/GP P/60 5 on 5 Rank AHL GF% Age  NHL Salary  NHL Experience Waivers?
Jordan Oesterle LHD 0.093 0.395 1.707 29 49.1 23          585,000  23 Games No
Joey Laleggia LHD 0.129 0.29 1.336 74 50.8 23          883,750  0 Games No
Griffin Reinhart LHD 0.067 0.167 1.216 94 50.8 21          863,333  37 Games No
Dillon Simpson LHD 0.071 0.179 1.215 95 47.7 22          836,667  0 Games No
David Musil LHD 0.045 0.121 0.735 41.8 22          600,000  4 Games Yes
Ben Betker LHD 0 0.143 0.63 36.8 20          683,333  0 Games No
Mark Fraser LHD 0.033 0.05 0.385 37.3 28          575,000  219 Games Yes
Matt Benning RHD Did Not Play 2015/16 22          925,000  0 Games No

Betker is the man on paper that was called up first. He wasn’t a part of the lineup in the season opener for Bakersfield and should an actual slot in the top 6 arise on the Oilers it won’t be Betker that gets a look in NHL action. He’s the #8 defender in Bakersfield and will resume that role again soon.

Jordan Oesterle and Griffin Reinhart both have NHL experience and didn’t look out of place in their stints with the Oilers last season.

Matt Benning outlasted both Oesterle and Reinhart in Oilers camp, eventually making the initial 23 man roster before a late return to the AHL. He has an important distinction from the rest of the group as well, he shoots right.

It will be important to see as the season progresses which left-handed D-men play and do well on the right side. In game 1 it was Oesterle and Laleggia playing their off-side.

What would your call be? Do you think the organization has enough depth on the farm? Let me know in the comments section below.

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