Monthly Archives: January 2017

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Trades

Scenarios Going Into the Trade Deadline

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The Edmonton Oilers are on the verge of making the playoffs and going into this year’s trade deadline they need to make a choice I believe.

  • Will they load up for a Stanley Cup finals run?
  • Will they stay the course and simply add pieces to secure that playoff bid.

I think every fan would love for Chiarelli to say ‘F*ck it!’ and go for the Cup but if you have forgotten, that’s sort of how we got here, no? Lowe and co. also took that same sentiment into the draft and thankfully because of those attitudes, we’re sitting pretty with Connor McDavid.

Personally, I believe the team should tinker with the roster not swing for the homerun at this year’s trade deadline.

My concerns with the team now are:

  • Backup goaltending
  • Scoring from the bottom six
  • The right-handed bomb from the point
  • A face-off specialist for the 3rd line
  • The lack of playoff experienced veterans

Who might the Oilers’ assets for trade be?

  • Benoit Pouliot – Let’s hope his strong play continues 🙂
  • Jordan Eberle – Can’t see him being dealt mid-season but you never know.
  • Brandon Davidson – The potential is there and rival GMs know this. Davy might bring back a key piece since he’s unlikely to be protected in the expansion draft.
  • Oscar Klefbom – If Chiarelli is really looking to expedite this rebuild, he could very well use the big Swede. I wouldn’t recommend it but it’s an option nevertheless.
  • The Oilers 1st round pick this year – Edmonton will do what it takes to improve and if a 1st rounder is part of that price, then so be it. The Oilers will be looking to recoup a 2nd rounder at some point anyhow.
  • Any one of David Musil, Jordan Oesterle, Griffin Reinhart, Joey Laleggia, Anton Slepyshev, Laurent Brossoit, or Dillon Simpson – It’s time to cash in on some of these prospects as it looks like their futures as Edmonton Oilers are in jeopardy. Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Zayat Paigin, William Lagesson, etc. are coming in and they’ll need spots.

Let’s address the concerns one-by-one.

SUPPORT FOR TALBOT

I have heard that the Oilers aren’t pleased with Laurent Brossoit’s development and are exploring all options heading into the final half of the year. I don’t blame the Oilers for wanting to find a goalie that they feel they can trust and there are quite a few out there I’d give the job to before Brossoit.

For me, this could be a very undervalued acquisition (remember Roloson in ’05?) and I wouldn’t be against the Oilers adding an expensive goalie here but the caveat being that the player they do pick up would need to have extensive playoff experience and a positive one would be nice but not a requisite.

  • Ryan Miller (36 years old, $6M – UFA) – Is Miller that bad a keeper? I mean he’s been playing for the Canucks and that defense is questionable. As a backup for Talbot, I’d feel very safe knowing if anything goes wrong, Ryan Miller is there to come in.

    His career playoff record is 56GP 28W 27L, .915SV%, 2.49 GAA.

  • Brian Elliott (31 years old, $2.5M – UFA) – I know he plays for the Flames but it’s not like he’s lighting up the league down there and he’s had extensive post-season experience during his time with the St.Louis Blues. I like this.

    Career playoff stats: 37GP 15W 19L, .911 SV%, 2.49 GAA

  • Michal Neuvirth (28 years old, $1.625M – UFA) – The Flyers have a couple of goalies that will be UFA this summer but I’m not sure I trust Mason not to shit the bed at any given moment. Neuvirth, on the other hand has been a trusty backup for some time now. He doesn’t have tons of playoff TOI though

    Career playoff stats: 13GP 6W 6L, .933 SV%, 1.93 GAA

There are a few others like Reto Berra, Jonathan Bernier (4-1-0, 933, 2.01GAA this season!), Ondrej Pavalec, and Anders Nilsson but I dig the fellas above. You?

AFTER EBS AND DRAISAITL, CAN WE TRUST THE KIDS?

So that right wing thing is still… A thing. I have a feeling that we’re going to witness a Jordan Eberle scoring explosion soon. The chances that he is getting are coming by the handful now and the timing couldn’t be better. That being said, Jesse and his Ripper (Full House references anyone?) are tearing up the AHL right now and I really want to believe that if the Oilers called him up after the trade deadline, that he’d do the same in the NHL but I don’t know that. Anton Slepyshev is still another question mark for me. I love how the Russian plays but when will it translate to consistent production on the stat sheet?

There is a perfectly good reason for Peter Chiarelli to go out and acquire a Radim Vrbata or a Jarome Iginla next month and that reason is the fear of Eberle/Draisaitl going cold again. The other thing is, in a playoff run or Stanley Cup run, you generally want to put your chances in the hands of the most capable players and usually, those players are a tad older or more high-end.

I’d love for the Oilers to go out and pick up the 2nd leading scorer in NHL history, Jaromir Jagr, because as a third line player that would allow the Oilers to move Zack Kassian to the 4th line where there’s not a lot that he can do to hurt the team.

Jagr isn’t a fast player by any means but he might be one of the smartest and Chiarelli had him for a run in Boston back in 2012/13. Of course, that fact and the Panthers making the playoffs could work against the Oilers trading for the legendary Czech.

Other names I’ve heard through the rumourvine: Brian Gionta and Alexandre Burrows. Not a lot of scoring there but would provide elements of their own in bottom 6 roles.

BOMBS AWAY!

There still seems to be interest from the Oilers in trading for a right-handed player that can add that cannon from the point or the left wall to their power play. I’m 50/50 on the idea I think. The PP is running pretty well (11th in the NHL at 20.4%) and picking up a defenseman or RW with a specific skill set is a daunting and risky task.

Dennis Wideman (CGY) has been in the rumours all year long. The Islanders’ young defender, Ryan Pulock, has emerged as a possible trade candidate but I’d like to see the Oilers going into the playoffs with an older crew, not a younger one.

This is possibly an area where Radim Vrbata and Jarome Iginla draw in again.

I’ll throw out some power play long shots (pun intended) for you though:

  • Colton Parayko/Kevin Shattenkirk (D) – St.Louis – Not the same Parayko we saw last year and the Blues are struggling a bit and apparently Bob McKenzie has said, in so many words, that Shattenkirk’s tune might have changed since last season and Edmonton could be back in the picture.
  • Sami Vatanen/Shea Theodore (D) – Anaheim – The highly-rated Theodore has seemingly fallen down the depth charts since Carlyle took over again. How will the expansion draft protection list affect the Ducks? And do they still want Benoit Pouliot?
  • Torey Krug/Zdeno Chara (D) – Boston – The Bruins are on shaky grounds, would they move either of these players to shore up the offense? Probably not if they’re close to a playoff spot eh? That being said, Chara’s salary drops to $4M next season…
  • Patrick Eaves (RW) – Dallas – What is happening to the Stars?
  • Ryan Strome (RW/C) – New York Islanders – More like, what is happening to the Isles?
  • Brandon Pirri (RW) – New York Rangers – This guy shoots, plain and simple. I can’t speak to his defensive game but if you want a shooter, you pick this guy up. Maybe the Rangers would have interest in Mark Fayne.

DRAWING FROM EXPERIENCE

Having a centre who can be counted on to win an important draw is of the utmost value in the drive to the playoffs and the Oilers have one guy in Mark Letestu they can count on (sort of). One. Maybe Leon Draisaitl could be another but we’re not 100% sure as to how he’ll perform when the team NEEDS that faceoff win.

Colorado’s John Mitchell should be available and he has a respectable win percentage on the draw at 55.55%. He’s got 1 goal and no assists this season, so one would think that his price would be of the minimal variety.

Bob Stauffer likes to pump Derek Ryan’s tires every chance he can get and the small pivot for the ‘Canes is having a pretty decent season (31gp 8g 10a) whilst winning 55.2% of his face-offs in 280 attempts. Now, Ryan isn’t exactly a full-time centre like Patrice Bergeron but he it looks like he can win a face-off now and then.

Hail Mary: Sean Couturier. If the Flyers fall out of the playoff race, do you think they’d be willing to move him? I think they’d be ridiculous to even consider doing it but one has to wonder if Travis Konecny would be a more financially astute player to take on 3rd line duties in Philly until his rookie contract is up?

YOU CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH OLD GUYS

This one is pretty simple. I’ve already named Radim Vrbata and Jarome Iginla earlier as grizzled veterans that would fill some serious holes and roles on this Oilers team but how about Shane Doan? Would he like to come home or would he be more inclined to shack up with his cousin in Montreal (Some guy named Price)?

The stats community is always singing PA Parenteau’s praises and it doesn’t look like the Devils will be making post-season plans this year. Is this a player that would help the Oilers down the stretch?

Another fella from the East, Mark Streit, has always been intriguing to me. He provides a nice puck moving option for the Oilers and he’s a UFA ($5.25M this year) at season’s end. He’s a leftie IIRC though and the Oilers have a shat ton of those.

I don’t know, I’m just thinking of the Oilers have an older roster going into the playoffs (hopefully), I’d feel more comfortable going up against a team like San Jose in the 1st round.

So what if the Oilers looked like this after the trade deadline?

The Home Run Model

Maroon-McDavid-Vrbata
Nuge-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Lucic-Caggiula-Parenteau
Slepyshev-Letestu-Kassian

Chara-Larsson
Sekera-Shattenkirk
Russell-Benning
**Nurse

Talbot
Miller

Basically sacrificing Klefbom, Davidson, Eberle, and Pouliot plus prospects and draft picks for some immediate help and taking on some extra salary as tax.

The Tinkering Model

Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
Lucic-Letestu-Vrbata
Kassian-Caggiula-Parenteau

Sekera-Larsson
Russell-Benning
Klefbom-Wideman
**Nurse

Talbot
Elliott

All of the players acquired here would surely be available for nothing more than marginal prospects and later round draft picks, no? Perhaps an offloading of Mark Fayne?

I’m just spitballing here folks. Probably a lot of wishful thinking, actually, definitely a lot of wishful thinking because it’s impossible to know who will and who won’t make the playoffs right now. The standings are pretty competitive this year and a 5 game losing streak could ruin any team’s chances at the post-season.

Thanks for sticking around this far! Enjoy your day! – BLH

**stats taken from NHL.com and Capfriendly.com**

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Prospects, Rumors, Trades

The Oilers’ Monday Moves

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Well, yesterday was a bit of a Twitter shit show wasn’t it? All of the know-it-alls letting us in on a little secret, that they could be better GMs than Peter Chiarelli and also that even though the Oilers are two points out of owning 1st place in the Pacific division, Chiarelli is still incompetent…

One follower of mine put it best,

OILERS FANS BE BEING OILERS FANS… 

I might add another hashtag to my growing arsenal… #HereComeTheOilersFans

 

Can you be a fan and criticize the team, its coach, players, or GM?

Yes, but don’t make that the only thing you do when following the team. You come off as a huge jaded dick. My favorites are the ones that seem to know all the answers and can’t wait to judge Chiarelli everytime one of his moves has a hint of failure coming on. The bitterness shown towards the Oilers’ GM for making that ever-so-wanted BOLD move by trading Hall for Larsson is ridiculous. It’s as if the Oilers made a mistake by moving Lowe and MacTavish and firing Tambellini.

No, by all means. We should’ve kept them because they were doing an excellent job of sitting on their hands and doing f*ck all.

Now, Peter Chiarelli isn’t immune to critique but if you’re going to sit there and nail him dry for signing Gustavsson, leaving Puljujarvi in the NHL, or trading Hall; could you do yourself a favour and check the standings, then take a short trip down memory lane and remember how the Oilers got to where they are now. They ate shit for a decade, that’s how. After you’re done remembering how bad the team (as a whole) was, check out how players like Pat Maroon, Matthew Benning, Cam Talbot, and Leon Draisaitl are turning out. And if that’s not enough for you, look at the hockey demi-god that the Oilers have playing for them in the pic below.

May the McDavid be with you!

 

THE MOVES

1. Jesse Puljujarvi gets sent down to Bakersfield

From what I can gather as to why it took the team so long to send him down, there are a few possible reasons:

– Lack of depth on RW
– Pending trades or negotiations that involved one of the Oilers’ forwards or more specifically one of their RWs.
– A disconnect between Chiarelli and McLellan on how to deploy the big Finn.

Now as we know, as soon as Puljujarvi hit the 40 game mark, the Oilers burned a year off of their control of him. Instead of being able to become an unrestricted free agent at age 26, he may now have that option at age 25. At least that’s my understanding and I could very well be wrong. Let me know in the comments below if I’m off base here.

I’m of the belief that Pulju could’ve been sent down a lot earlier but then Pitlick got hurt and that threw a wrench into some trade negotiations for the Oilers. Remember that Matt Hendricks was supposedly going to the Wild? I know, Hendy plays LW but not having Puljujarvi around if that deal did go down wasn’t a risk the Oilers wanted to take because it was unlikely that a winger was coming back in that deal.

I also believe that Chiarelli wanted McLellan to be playing Puljujarvi a whole lot more so that he could evaluate him a bit better. Reminded me of the scene in Moneyball when Billy Beane and Art Howe couldn’t come to an agreement as to who would play at 1st base. I’m glad Chiarelli didn’t feel the need to trade any of the other RWs to make a point to McLellan though… Not that Eberle hasn’t been a feature in the Oilers rumour mill this year or anything… Still is… (Montreal/Washington I hear. More below.).

While Puljujarvi is in the AHL, he’ll be a top-line player and I might try to catch some of Bakersfield’s games online to see how Puljujarvi acclimatizes himself to that league. I’d expect him to be on a line with Khaira and Laleggia or Beck AND to get some cherry minutes as the go-to guy on the PP.

As for the language concern. He’ll be fine in Bakersfield with fellow countryman Jere Sallinen plying his trade for the Oilers farm team as well.

I reckon that Puljujarvi will be back with the Oilers this season and that seems to be a common sentiment amongst the pundits. They’ll send him down in hopes that he finds his game and when the time comes, Chiarelli will call him back up with said game in tow.

Lastly, Puljujarvi was barely 18 when he started the year and he’s not the first highly drafted 18 year old to have struggles scoring in the NHL (Thornton, Stamkos, Seguin, and Draisaitl come to mind), Remember that.

2. Gustavsson hits the waiver wire

I’ll just ask this question to the know-it-all bloggers off the bat, how is Jonas Enroth doing this year?

On Jason Gregor’s show last night he explained to us the reason that Chad Johnson wasn’t an option (because he’s the next player that fans/bloggers bring up in the backup goalie debate) for the Oilers. Chad Johnson wasn’t going to sign with a team that wasn’t prepared to give him some real ice-time and with Cam Talbot being the no.1 guy in Edmonton, Johnson wasn’t going to get that wanted TOI.

On the Cult of Hockey podcast, Staples and McCurdy discussed Gustavsson and length. Bruce McCurdy, who was a proponent of the signing for Edmonton (I didn’t know this. I didn’t know anybody was okay with it.), explained how Gustavsson’s career SV% at that time (.909) wasn’t that far off of the NHL’s average SV% (.915) from the year previous.

So there wasn’t this supposed extreme risk for Chiarelli in signing the Swede. He’s got a winning career record to boot and he signed for relatively cheap. Brossoit was going to be in the minors on a one-way deal, so if Gus didn’t work out, Brossoit was already there.

But this year has been quite unforgiving for him (1-3-0-1, 3.10 GAA, .878 SV%) and I support the decision of putting him on waivers with the intention of sending him down to the minors. As far as I’ve been told and Rishaug echoed this on Gregor’s show last night, Gustavsson will most likely never play another game for the Oilers unless something drastic takes place. Meaning an injury is the only way he will suit up for the Oilers again in 2016/17. I guess McLellan was pretty steamed at his performance vs. Ottawa and that lead to this move being made.

A lot of speculation is being bandied about as to who the Oilers will get to replace Jonas Gustavsson now and the 1st name that came up was Columbus’ back-up, Curtis McIlhenney, because he was put on waivers as well yesterday and his numbers don’t look too shabby either (2-1-2, 2.39 GAA, .924 SV%). But that loss to the Rangers scuffed up the shine on him.

Another name is Laurent Brossoit but he’s not lighting up the AHL right now. So I’m not too sure with regards to an AHL goalie coming in.

Other goalies that have been connected to Edmonton recently:

Jaro Halak, Ondrej Pavelec, Reto Berra, and Michael Neuvirth.

Oilers aren’t taking on Halak due to his contract’s term, but those other three are viable options. I like Neuvirth the best to be honest.

I don’t believe that the Oilers will make a claim on McIlhenney because they are sitting at 48 out of 50 contracts and going into the trade deadline with only 1 contract spot available could make negotiations quite tight. But I could see the Oilers sending over a LHD prospect in return for McIlhenney.

Gustavsson may very well stay on the roster until the time comes too. He doesn’t have to be sent down for another 30 days or 10 games after he clears waivers… So don’t get too ancy as to why he’s not being moved to the AHL if it takes some time.

3. Anton Slepyshev recalled!

AWESOME!!!

I’ve been a huge fan of Slepy all year and, in my opinion, he brings all the right tools to Chiarelli’s renovation party. He hits, he skates, he shoots, he’s a creative passer, he’s young, he plays a very gritty game, and he’s such a hard worker.

It’s going to be good to watch him again.

FUTURE MOVES

I know that the Oilers had scouts in Montreal watching the Habs/Caps game. There was some chatter online talking about Montreal having interest in Jordan Eberle and I guess Chiarelli likes Lars Eller but I can’t see either team moving on either player.

Edmonton can’t trade Eberle right now with that super funk that he is in. They’ll get taken to the woodshed Miroslav Satan-style. Not saying that the Oilers couldn’t use another Barrie Moore and Craig Millar but… No, I’m saying that. But if he doesn’t find that scoring touch by the deadline… Things could get some interesting.

The Caps paid a pretty salty price for Lars Eller, can’t see them moving him. Marcus Johansson on the other hand…

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Brennen York

World Junior Rewind

From opening puck drop on boxing day to Troy Terry’s shootout heroics, the 2017 World Junior’s packed about as much junior hockey excitement into eleven days as anyone could hope for. There were a few major storylines many will remember twenty years down the road, the main one likely being Troy Terry’s shootout magnificence, however the lack of attendance throughout round robin action and even into quarter final action is sure to leave a black mark on the cities of Montreal and Toronto. Also, with the USA having won their third medal in eight years, many questions around Canada’s success at the tournament have already been asked and will likely be asked again come next December.
Focusing on the positives..
The roster the U.S. assembled was quite brilliant, and the way Bob Motzko utilized all four of his lines really helped push the Americans over the top. The Americans did an excellent job combining speed, goal scoring, and finding the players who were unwilling to walk away without a gold medal around their necks.

Tyler Parsons – Parsons is a big game guy and that’s exactly what they got out of him. He’s not a natural high end puck tracker, but man does he fight in the crease. Flames may have a good one.

 

Charlie McAvoy – McAvoy was the second best defenceman in the tournament and provided the Americans with a stabilizing force from the back end. McAvoy will be a high end NHL defenceman, and he will be there very soon.

 

Caleb Jones – Outside of WHL and Oiler fans, not many people were aware of the impact Jones would play on the roster. Jones, much like McAvoy, was a real stabilizer on the back end, able to slow the game down and distribute the puck effectively.

 

Jack Roslovic – Though he didn’t receive the attention that Colin White and Clayton Keller received, Roslovic was one of the most impactful players on the American roster. His ability to transport the puck through the neutral zone with speed, and gain clean zone entries are something that will make him a successful NHL winger.

 

Clayton Keller – He was quiet in the final, but I don’t think anyone can argue the sheer brilliance of Clayton Keller. From his puck skills to speed to the way he sees the ice, Keller is going to be a big time player for they ‘Yotes.

 

Luke Kunin – Kunin had a decent tournament, and was able to generate a fair amount of offensive zone chances. I believe he’s still a year away from the NHL (based on his performance in this tournament) but he played an integral part in the American’s success.

 

Jordan Greenway – Scary, scary player. His ability to skate given his size would have any opponent shaking. He’s a freight train, and the physical aspect of his game, as well as his ability to contribute around the net really allowed fans to see how good of a prospect Greenway is.

 

Tage Thompson – Unbelievably skilled player. Thompson showed he has the ability to dominate games, and I believe that’s exactly what he will bring to the St. Louis Blues. Out of any player on the roster, Thompson impressed me the most.

 

Troy Terry – What’s left to say? He was clutch. I’m not sure he’s ever a top 9 NHL player, but he certainly cemented himself as one of the most legendary US players ever.

 

Though they finished second, Team Canada really didn’t have all that good of a tournament. Aside from Thomas Chabot, and for a short time Phillippe Myers, the back end struggled mightily against the fast and skilled attacks of the Sweden and the USA. In a short tournament like this, the lack of defenceman capable of playing more of a shutdown role inevitably cost them, making the omission of Brendan Guhle even harder to swallow.

 

The forward group deployed in this years tournament was quite strong, but the team lacked in a clear go to guy. Of course Mathew Barzal and Dylan Strome were thought to be those guys heading in, and they did have a fairly strong round robin, but they were never able to truly take over and dominate a game, with Dylan Strome nearly disappearing in the final. Julien Gauthier was one of the more impressive forwards, and given his size, speed, and overall intelligence, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think he’ll be a top none guy in Raleigh next season. Anthony Cirelli received a lot of media attention, and though he played above what was expected, he didn’t blow me away.

 

The goaltending was what it was. They took the two best Canadian goalies in the CHL, and to Hart’s credit the Americans got really lucky on a couple of goals in the final game.

 

In terms of draft eligibles who impressed, no one was better than Halifax Mooseheads forward, Nico Hischier who scooped up seven points in five games and was the clear go to man for the Swiss. Is he going to be a top three pick in this years draft, probably not, but everyone now knows how skilled the young center is. Miro Heiskanen is another player who saw a rise in his draft stock following a fairly strong outing on a weak Finnish squad. The other Fins in Tolvanen, Vesalainen, and Valimaki are likely to remain in a similar spot, though Vesalainen is a guy who could see his name rise. Elias Pettersson had a decent outing for a draft eligible in the WJC, and is likely solidified in the top 15. Lias Andersson showed off how dynamic he can be, and at times looked like one of the best Swedes on the ice. Andersson is a player I had some reservations on heading into the tourney, but he looks like he will be a high end offensive player at the NHL level.

 

Aside from Finlands shocking fall from grace, the other disappointment comes with the Swedes, who on paper were the majority favourite heading in. With a deep defensive corp, elite goaltending, and a good mix of veterans and skilled, the Swedes fell short to the Russians. The Swedes are a perennial power house, but if this tournament showed anything it’s that teams are able to adjust to the same old formula, and that’s evident in the success that a team like Switzerland had at the tournament, proving to be far more competitive than one would have thought.

 

As strange as it may sound, the Fins will have a strong team in the 2018 edition of the tournament, with likely returnees in Rasanen, Vesalainen, Tolvanen, Heiskanen, Valimaki, as well as the addition of likely top 60 pick Robin Salo.

 

Thank you for reading, and follow me at @DraftGeekHockey for more news and notes on junior hockey news and prospects.

Edmonton Oilers, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL

The Half-Season Report Card

So now that we have 41 games in the books, how has the Oilers’ season fared thus far? Some lists, as of this writing:

**BLH’s Note** – I was a bit slow (read as hungover) to get this post out before the Sens/Oilers game tonight but the gist of Mike’s post remains the same. Please enjoy! – BLH**

THE WEST


EVERYONE ELSE

As I type this, the Edmonton Oilers are the 2nd best team in the Pacific Division, and the 9th (NINTH) best team in the NHL. Holy crap. When was the last time the Oilers were in the top-third in the league at the halfway mark of a season? I’m not even going to look that stat up because I know how depressing and awful it will be.

Wheel, snipe, celly, boys. We are officially basement-dwellers no longer. (Speaking of snipes and cellys, congrats to Matt Benning on his first career NHL goal tonight! Always stoked to see a newbie get his first. Here’s hoping to a long future with Benning on the Oilers blueline.)


THE FACTS

Man, it’s been an emotional roller coaster of a season, hasn’t it? There’s something about being vaguely in playoff contention for most of a season make the highs feel really high, and the lows really low. There have been multiple points in the season where I’ve felt that we’ll never lose a game again, and just as many where it seems like we’ll never be able to squeak out a win.

There are consistency issues with this group, but, like this evening, they’re pulling it together and finding ways to win more often than not, and at this point in our team’s development, that’s a promising thing.

As we watch the Pacific play out, it’s seeming more and more likely that this is a good year for us to see some postseason play for the first time in over a decade, and if we can keep this general pace up through the second half of the season (which features a much more Oilers-friendly travel and game schedule), I don’t see why we can’t make it happen with this group, especially as some usual Pacific heavyweights struggle.

We need to take advantage of the situation we’ve been presented with and keep the pressure going into February and through April.


MY THOUGHTS

  • McDavid is McDavid, that much goes without saying. He’s perfect and I love him.
  • Draisaitl is a horse game in and game out, and I won’t even flinch if Pete gives him $6M this offseason.
  • Larsson is a big, mean, minute-eating machine and hasn’t made me miss Taylor Hall once since the season began.
  • Kris Russell — despite the continued and relentless naysaying from nerds on Twitter with their noses in stat sheets — has been good.
  • Lucic I’m undecided on; I think he needs this season to get up to speed with the way he’s going to have to play going forward if he’s going to be on McDavid’s wing in the future.
  • Thankfully, Patrick Maroon just continues to be a goddamn beauty and make up for Looch’s shortcomings so far this season. (And congrats to him on his first hatty a couple nights ago!) I’d be happy protecting Maroon for expansion and exposing Davidson with the way he and Benning have been playing, and in my little fantasy land where everything is happy and people get what they deserve, Maroon and Pouliot’s contracts would be straight swapped.
  • Nuge has been clutch in a few key situations in the last month or so, but I think both he and Ebs need to get their lives together a little bit and start producing at-or-near where they were in seasons past. (Uh, hello, have these guys forgotten that they were our top line guys for like four years? They aren’t even really producing at a solid second line pace through 41 this season.)
  • Puljujarvi needs to go to the AHL immediately and start playing big minutes. He needs seasoning and we are truly treating him even worse than we did Draistail in 2013. I’m quite concerned with how Chiarelli and McLellan are utilizing him, and why he hasn’t been sent down as of like last month is a mystery to me. We have a Finn in Bakersfield who can befriend the guy and help him out if it’s a language-barrier thing. I just want that big pizza-eating goof to turn into the stud we know he can be. :]
  • Caggiula is great! (I told you guys he would be.) Sort of reminds me of an early-2010s Eberle back when he gave a shit, with regard to his agility and general skill in tight situations with the puck. He’s sneaky, unusually strong on the puck for a little guy, and has some pretty silky mitts. Give this kid another season or two of solid third line minutes and some PP time and I don’t see why he doesn’t become a 60-point scorer by his mid-20s.
  • You’ll recall, dear BLH readers, I also predicted Mark Letestu as a regular in the lineup because of his good attitude and solid 3/4 line stats. The only thing I missed was neglecting to type his full name: Mark “Shootout and Overtime Specialist” Letestu.

THE GRADE

B+

We’ve got a good thing going here, boys. Keep it up.

Please.

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

Oilers Trade Target: Thomas Vanek

Back in 2006/07, there was an Austrian playing for the Buffalo Sabres, his name was Thomas Vanek, and that year he scored 43 goals to lead the NHL. Well, the Oilers were looking for some scoring on the wing and decided to piss everyone off and do the unthinkable and given that Vanek was an RFA, a 7 year/$50M offer sheet was offered and signed by Thomas Vanek.

Of course, now we know that Buffalo matched the offer and Vanek remained a Sabre for another nine or so seasons before moving on to the Canadiens, Islanders, Wild, and now Red Wings.

Which brings me to the next point.

The Detroit Red Wings are not exactly out of the wild card race but they’re competing against the teams in that ridiculously competitive Metropolitan Division and at the moment it looks as if Philadelphia is their closest target. The Red Wings have 39 points and Flyers have 45 points with Detroit having a game in hand, so not really a major obstacle to overcome but still.I believe that this is the year that Ken Holland and co. bite the bullet and start a minor rebuild.

I believe that this is the year that Ken Holland and co. bite the bullet and start a minor rebuild and that starts with dealing the soon-to-be free agents. Vanek, Drew Miller, and Steve Ott would all be great additions to a playoff-bound Edmonton Oilers but for this post, I’m speaking more to right now than come playoff time. So Thomas Vanek is the guy.

Check out the shot at the 1:37 mark of that video… Good lord, that goalie never even seen the puck coming.

What are the Oilers Looking For?

  1. Size
  2. A shooter for McDavid
  3. A right-hander for the PP

Thomas Vanek (33 years old) is 6’2″ and 218lbs according to Eliteprospects.com and he’s averaged about 190 shots per year. Compare that with annual Oilers 1st line RW Jordan Eberle’s 160 shots per year and we can deduce that Vanek shoots more… Obviously. That’s just an elementary observation though and he’s failed to reach the 190 mark in his previous two seasons…

In 28 games this year, the Austrian has 9 goals and 14 assists with 70 shots on goal and 14 PIMs. He’s no.2 in scoring for Detroit.

I’ll preface the following with the more than suitable hashtag, #SmallSampleSize.

In 2016/17, Vanek is (according to stats.hockeyanalysis.com, using 5×5, 300 min. TOI, fwds):

  • #7 in the NHL amongst forwards for pts/60: 2.79 (SAY WHAT?!)
  • #33 in shots/60: 9.12
  • #62 in All PP situations for shots/60: 12.38 (Draisait, Lucic, and Letestu ahead of him)
  • #77 in All PP situations for pts/60: 4.34
  • #63 in Corsi For per 60 Relative to Teammates: 5.30

So, what I’m reading here is that the numbers presented tell us that he is still a top-6 winger in the NHL and in most cases still a 1st line winger. At least, offensively.

Earlier in his career, he was a PP goal-scoring machine scoring in double-digits with the man advantage in his first 7 seasons. In 2007/08 and 2008/09 he combined for 39 goals on the PP…

Now he hasn’t come close to those early-career numbers in some time but he has a history of scoring in double digits and Who knows? Give him the right kind of centre and he might get close again.

The fact of the matter is that he ticks off the necessary boxes.

Speaking of teammates, I was wondering how Vanek did with his current ones. So I checked out who he was playing with the most and their impacts on each other.

  1. Gustav Nyquist (248 min)
    – Together: GF60 – 3.38, GA60 – 2.41, GF% – 58%, CF60 – 55.05, CA60 – 58.68, CF% – 48%
    – Vanek Apart: GF60 – 4.07, GA60 – 2.44, GF% – 62.5%, CF60 – 53.67, CA60 – 59.36, CF% – 47.5%
    – Nyquist Apart: GF60 – 2.14, GA60 – 1.91, GF% – 52.9%, CF60 – 51.22, CA60 – 58.18, CF% – 47.3%Major Observations: The GF60 when Nyquist and Vanek are apart from each other. It’s nearly 2 goals! Nyqvist’s GF% also drops hard when away from Vanek but his GA60 is also much better away.
  2. Frans Nielsen (106 min)
    – Together: GF60 – 2.82, GA60 – 3.38, GF% – 45.5%, CF60 – 71.54, CA60 – 61.96, CF% – 53.6%
    – Vanek Apart: GF60 – 3.89, GA60 – 1.95, GF% – 66.7%, CF60 – 46.44, CA60 – 57.29, CF% – 44.8%
    – Nielsen Apart: GF60 – 1.64, GA60 – 2.96, GF% – 35.7%, CF60 -48.60, CA60 – 53.53, CF% – 47.6%Major Observations: Some big differences here. CF60 together is YUGE! Vanek’s GF% is WAY better away from Nielsen, as is his GA60 and GF60 (weird). Please correct me if I’m wrong but when these two are together, they are really good at getting shots to the other team’s net and bad at keeping them away from their own net but take Vanek away and everything suddenly improves exponentially?
  3. Dylan Larkin (87 min)
    – Together: GF60 – 2.06, GA60 – 2.75, GF% – 42.9%, CF60 – 34.4, CA60 – 59.86, CF% – 36.5%
    – Vanek Apart: GF60 – 4.08, GA60 – 2.30, GF% – 64%, CF60 – 62.28, CA60 – 58.45, CF% – 51.6%
    – Larkin Apart: GF60 – 1.97, GA60 – 2.68, GF% – 42.4%, CF60 – 53.88, CA60 – 53.59, CF% – 50.1%Major Observations: GF60, GF%, and CF60 jump out immediately. Vanek seems to score at double the rate away from Larkin but Larkin’s possession stats are better away from Vanek (apart from CF% slightly).

Another reason I wanted to look at those WOWY numbers is because of Larkin especially. He’s probably one of a handful of players that can match Connor McDavid’s speed and that has been a point of contention in Edmonton recently when talking about players that can produce with McDavid. Lucic and Eberle are too slow (But Draisaitl and Maroon are the next comings of Selanne and Bure…)

Since Larkin isn’t producing more than Vanek away from him, I’ll say this shouldn’t be a concern when considering Vanek as a winger for Connor.

If Jordan Eberle can continue on the pace he is, he should end the season with around 16 goals and 52 points. Vanek? Nearly the same but for a third of what Eberle is being paid AND he’s a shooter w/size… That being said, we are waiting for Eberle’s shooting percentage to come back to normal as he usually shoots around 14% and he’s firing blanks so far this year (7.8%).

What you won’t like about Vanek… He’s streaky, can look Eberlazy, and he’s staying about as healthy as Taylor Hall (Sorry, had to get that in there. Oh! Did you know that Patrick Maroon has 5 more goals than Hall this year?). Plus, don’t expect much defense out of the guy. His 5v5 Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts) Against per 60 Relative to Teammates is 4.04 and that places him 271 out of 305 fwds. The silver lining there is that his nearest peers are players like Jeff Carter and Jeff Skinner.

The Price You Pay

Vanek is making $2.6M for this year only and I feel that’s very affordable. Not as affordable as say, Radim Vrbata ($1M) but definitely not as expensive as Jarome Iginla (%5.3M).

I’d expect him to cost a premium IF the Oilers were to ring up Ken Holland and inquire as to the asking price. Now, given that Detroit has draft picks for every round in the upcoming draft, I don’t believe that would be a priority but they’d have to be included. I’m also of the belief that the Red Wings would rather not go the route of a long rebuild. So, I’m going to say IF I was in the GM’s seat in the Motor City, I’d look for younger players that are NHLers already or on the verge of becoming full-time NHLers.

What do the Oilers have that fit that bill that they’d be willing to move?

  • Brandon Davidson (LHD): For sure. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Davy is better than Ryan Sproul, Xavier Ouellet, Nick Jensen, and Alexey Marchenko.
  • Anton Lander (C/W): Remember the damage he did when Todd Nelson was the coach of the Oilers for that short time after the Eakins firing? Well, Nelson is the Red Wings minor league coach. Is the connection too obvious?
  • Mark Fayne (RHD): Fayne doesn’t quite fit the description of young NHLer but Detroit’s defense looks to be in shambles with all the injuries. Would they be interested in a player with the kind of experience that Fayne has? Contract would be a problem here though, I’m sure.
  • Anton Slepyshev (RW): The Russian would most likely be the player traded I think. He’s got speed, size, grooming time in the AHL, he’s gritty. I mean, I wish the Oilers would toss him up on the big team some more so we could watch him but I think the Red Wings could envision a line where Dylan Larkin centres Evgeni Svechnikov and Anton Slepyshev and they’d light the NHL on fire.

Others include: Iiro Pakarinen, Jordan Oesterle, and Dillon Simpson.

Sorry, I can’t see the Red Wings having a use for Benoit Pouliot unless the Oilers included a good prospect and a 1st rounder.

Right now the Oilers are at 48/50 contracts. So any deals they make should be a 2 for 1, or the Lowetide-famous, 3 for 1.

That defense in Bakersfield needs to be trimmed up a bit. They’ve got Joey “I was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award” Laleggia playing LW for Heaven’s sake.

In conclusion, I feel that anytime you have the option to add a veteran that has scored over 300 goals in the NHL, that’s something, as a GM, you should be doing.

10 years after the original offer sheet, it’s time to bring Thomas Vanek to Edmonton. For real this time.

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