Tag Archives: Thomas Vanek

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors

Edmonton Oilers: How Would You Feel About These Potential PTO Candidates?

It’s that time again Oilers fans! It’s time to talk about which unsigned veterans you’d like to see come to Edmonton on a professional tryout.

Now, if you remember, last season the Oilers gave Alex Chiasson a PTO and he came in, performed well, and was given a contract for the year. Then he proceeded to bury the biscuit 22 times! An excellent example of a PTO that worked out.

But what about an offer or offers that didn’t? Well, we don’t have to look that far back, do we? Last season, then GM Peter Chiarelli also signed defenseman Jason Garrison and forward Scottie Upshall to PTOs as well and what transpired was Upshall’s knee was fooked and Garrison ended up getting signed but it was quite apparent that he didn’t have the boots for the game at the NHL level anymore and eventually made it to the Djurgarden in Sweden via Chicago.

So as you can see, it doesn’t always work out when you’re signing these guys. Most of the time they’re well into their 30s and past their prime. These are players that are just looking to stay in the NHL at this point.

And that brings us to some of the candidates that I believe would serve the Oilers well if they would come to Edmonton on a pro tryout.

  • Thomas Vanek (LW/RW) – 64gp 16g 20a 36pts 14:06 TOI/gp
  • Patrick Marleau (LW/C) – 82gp 16g 21a 37pts 16:20 TOI/gp
  • Riley Sheahan (LW/C) – 82gp 9g 10a 19pts 14:39 TOI/gp
  • Justin Williams (RW) – 82gp 23g 30a 53pts 17:27 TOI/gp
  • Brian Boyle (LW/C) – 73gp 18g 6a 24pts 12:44 TOI/gp
  • Magnus Paajarvi (LW/RW) – 80gp 11g 8a 19pts 13:28 TOI/gp
  • Joe Morrow (LD) – 41gp 1g 6a 7pts 13:57 TOI/gp
  • Michael Stone (RD) – 14gp 0g 5a 5pts 15:56 TOI/gp
  • Marc Methot (RD) – 9gp 0g 0a 0pts 16:56 TOI/gp
  • Ben Hutton (LD) – 69gp 5g 15a 20pts 22:21 TOI/gp
  • Jamie McGinn (LW/RW) 19gp 4g 3a 7pts 10:40 TOI/gp

Just for what it’s worth, Jason Gregor said recently that he believes Boyle has contract offers on the table, so that more or less removes him. Justin Williams is taking a break from hockey right now and if he was to return, you’d have to think Carolina would be his first choice. I have heard Michael Stone’s name in connection with the Oilers before, so there’s that. And I have a sneaky feeling that local Edmonton super-agent Gerry Johannson might be trying to get Joe Morrow a PTO from the Oilers.

Of course, if the Oilers are planning to just play out the season, then this exercise is really a waste of time, but even though my feeling is that there’s not much to look forward to this year, you might not share that opinion.

As I’ve said time and time before, the Oilers need more veterans on their team but not just any old player with a decade of experience. These individuals need to be players who the team can still lean on off the ice and on it.

Milan Lucic, for example. After a season and a half whatever game he had, left him and that wasn’t the only thing that left him. His swagger and clout in the locker room left him too I believe and now he’s getting mentioned in the same breath as Andrew Ference.

What a crock of shit that comparison is by the way. Since when do we compare a 28-year-old forward in his physical prime to a 34-year-old defenseman who was breaking down at obviously in the back nine of his career? Maybe it’s a Boston thing OR… maybe it’s an Edmonton thing where whoever is the GM of the bloody club thinks that they’ll be the one that will bring back the 80s dynasty.

You cannot build a champion on the back of teenagers and kids barely old enough to buy a beer in the States. It happened once and I’m betting it’ll never happen again. So stop trying to do it and at the same time, stop giving the keys to the city to said teenagers and kids barely old enough to buy a beer in the States.

Anyways, back to what I was saying about veterans. Just listening to Lucic’s comments above, vets like playing with other vets… The more the merrier, but they have to be able to play the game and be effective. It’s not enough to have a Stanley Cup ring or two nowadays. It’s not enough to be able to lead the league in blocked shots or be the scariest fighter in the NHL. You have to be able to score too.

I just reckon that the power balance is shifted too far towards “The Core” right now. It needs to head back the other way a bit and that’s why I like the signing of Mike Smith. He doesn’t take any crap from anyone, teammate or not. Same with James Neal I’ve heard. Whether that’s a good thing or a bad one, we’ll have to wait for that to be seen.

My belief is that the Oilers are still looking for a center for the third line and that they’re pretty much stocked on the wings. That analysis is one done on paper though and when camp gets going, you never know what’s going to happen. So if I had to choose out off of the list of players above, I’d offer PTOs to these three,

  • Patrick Marleau
  • Marc Methot
  • Riley Sheahan

A part of me would like to see Paajarvi and Gagner reunited and for Thomas Vanek to finally make it to Edmonton all those years after being offer-sheeted by Kevin Lowe. What about you?

Patrick Marleau can still contribute in every facet of the game. He can be used on both special teams’ units and as a middle-6 forward. What he did for Mitch Marner in Toronto is so sorely needed in Edmonton. McDavid has nobody to lean on for leadership advice and let’s get this out there right now. Just because he’s the best player in the game doesn’t mean jack about his leadership abilities. It’s not on one player anymore anyhow when it comes to leading a team, it’s on a group.

I like the idea of Marc Methot pairing up with Oscar Klefbom or a young guy like Caleb Jones. He was Erik Karlsson’s rock for many years in Ottawa and if I’m not mistaken, he held that same role in Dallas as John Klingberg’s partner. He’s only played 45 games over the last two seasons though, so there’s that… Maybe he’d just be another Jason Garrison…

As for Sheahan, I’m getting tired of the Oilers being shite on the faceoff. Nuge has been in the league for nearly a decade and he’s never been good at faceoffs. Why?! Why hasn’t this former 1st overall pick done anything to improve arguably the most important aspect of a center’s game in all of that time? Maybe the should’ve moved him to wing earlier in his career…

Sheahan won’t score you many points, but I think it’s prudent to ask if he’s a better option than Colby Cave, Kyle Brodziak, or Gaetan Haas.

The one thing that is going to irk you about these three players is that their advanced analytics are poor and is that something that a coach like Dave Tippet would be able to work with? Basically, with Marleau and Methot, the ice is tilted pretty severely when they’re out. It’s a bit of a new thing for Marleau, do he might be able to snap out of it, but I’m not sure Methot would be able to.

Click the names to see their career analytics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Methot
Marleau

If you’re asking how the Oilers would fit any number of these guys in, it’s simple. I don’t believe that anybody would claim Kyle Brodziak or Colby Cave if they went through waivers and if one or both of Haas and Nygaard couldn’t cut it, they could have their deals mutually terminated and back to Europe they would go.

The problem with adding players is that there’s a limit on contracts though… Oilers are tight to the 50-man ceiling as it is and they’d definitely want to stay around 47 contracts if possible. They’d have to get creative, that’s for sure.

What do you think? Who’d you like to see come to Edmonton on a professional tryout? Let is know in the comments below!

The one time it’s okay to be a JERK! Grab this shirt while supplies last!
Elias Pettersson’s nickname is “Alien”. Here’s a shirt to celebrate it! Click the image to buy one!
Click the image above to get the new Pulju shirt!
Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

Oilers Trade Target: Thomas Vanek

Back in 2006/07, there was an Austrian playing for the Buffalo Sabres, his name was Thomas Vanek, and that year he scored 43 goals to lead the NHL. Well, the Oilers were looking for some scoring on the wing and decided to piss everyone off and do the unthinkable and given that Vanek was an RFA, a 7 year/$50M offer sheet was offered and signed by Thomas Vanek.

Of course, now we know that Buffalo matched the offer and Vanek remained a Sabre for another nine or so seasons before moving on to the Canadiens, Islanders, Wild, and now Red Wings.

Which brings me to the next point.

The Detroit Red Wings are not exactly out of the wild card race but they’re competing against the teams in that ridiculously competitive Metropolitan Division and at the moment it looks as if Philadelphia is their closest target. The Red Wings have 39 points and Flyers have 45 points with Detroit having a game in hand, so not really a major obstacle to overcome but still.I believe that this is the year that Ken Holland and co. bite the bullet and start a minor rebuild.

I believe that this is the year that Ken Holland and co. bite the bullet and start a minor rebuild and that starts with dealing the soon-to-be free agents. Vanek, Drew Miller, and Steve Ott would all be great additions to a playoff-bound Edmonton Oilers but for this post, I’m speaking more to right now than come playoff time. So Thomas Vanek is the guy.

Check out the shot at the 1:37 mark of that video… Good lord, that goalie never even seen the puck coming.

What are the Oilers Looking For?

  1. Size
  2. A shooter for McDavid
  3. A right-hander for the PP

Thomas Vanek (33 years old) is 6’2″ and 218lbs according to Eliteprospects.com and he’s averaged about 190 shots per year. Compare that with annual Oilers 1st line RW Jordan Eberle’s 160 shots per year and we can deduce that Vanek shoots more… Obviously. That’s just an elementary observation though and he’s failed to reach the 190 mark in his previous two seasons…

In 28 games this year, the Austrian has 9 goals and 14 assists with 70 shots on goal and 14 PIMs. He’s no.2 in scoring for Detroit.

I’ll preface the following with the more than suitable hashtag, #SmallSampleSize.

In 2016/17, Vanek is (according to stats.hockeyanalysis.com, using 5×5, 300 min. TOI, fwds):

  • #7 in the NHL amongst forwards for pts/60: 2.79 (SAY WHAT?!)
  • #33 in shots/60: 9.12
  • #62 in All PP situations for shots/60: 12.38 (Draisait, Lucic, and Letestu ahead of him)
  • #77 in All PP situations for pts/60: 4.34
  • #63 in Corsi For per 60 Relative to Teammates: 5.30

So, what I’m reading here is that the numbers presented tell us that he is still a top-6 winger in the NHL and in most cases still a 1st line winger. At least, offensively.

Earlier in his career, he was a PP goal-scoring machine scoring in double-digits with the man advantage in his first 7 seasons. In 2007/08 and 2008/09 he combined for 39 goals on the PP…

Now he hasn’t come close to those early-career numbers in some time but he has a history of scoring in double digits and Who knows? Give him the right kind of centre and he might get close again.

The fact of the matter is that he ticks off the necessary boxes.

Speaking of teammates, I was wondering how Vanek did with his current ones. So I checked out who he was playing with the most and their impacts on each other.

  1. Gustav Nyquist (248 min)
    – Together: GF60 – 3.38, GA60 – 2.41, GF% – 58%, CF60 – 55.05, CA60 – 58.68, CF% – 48%
    – Vanek Apart: GF60 – 4.07, GA60 – 2.44, GF% – 62.5%, CF60 – 53.67, CA60 – 59.36, CF% – 47.5%
    – Nyquist Apart: GF60 – 2.14, GA60 – 1.91, GF% – 52.9%, CF60 – 51.22, CA60 – 58.18, CF% – 47.3%Major Observations: The GF60 when Nyquist and Vanek are apart from each other. It’s nearly 2 goals! Nyqvist’s GF% also drops hard when away from Vanek but his GA60 is also much better away.
  2. Frans Nielsen (106 min)
    – Together: GF60 – 2.82, GA60 – 3.38, GF% – 45.5%, CF60 – 71.54, CA60 – 61.96, CF% – 53.6%
    – Vanek Apart: GF60 – 3.89, GA60 – 1.95, GF% – 66.7%, CF60 – 46.44, CA60 – 57.29, CF% – 44.8%
    – Nielsen Apart: GF60 – 1.64, GA60 – 2.96, GF% – 35.7%, CF60 -48.60, CA60 – 53.53, CF% – 47.6%Major Observations: Some big differences here. CF60 together is YUGE! Vanek’s GF% is WAY better away from Nielsen, as is his GA60 and GF60 (weird). Please correct me if I’m wrong but when these two are together, they are really good at getting shots to the other team’s net and bad at keeping them away from their own net but take Vanek away and everything suddenly improves exponentially?
  3. Dylan Larkin (87 min)
    – Together: GF60 – 2.06, GA60 – 2.75, GF% – 42.9%, CF60 – 34.4, CA60 – 59.86, CF% – 36.5%
    – Vanek Apart: GF60 – 4.08, GA60 – 2.30, GF% – 64%, CF60 – 62.28, CA60 – 58.45, CF% – 51.6%
    – Larkin Apart: GF60 – 1.97, GA60 – 2.68, GF% – 42.4%, CF60 – 53.88, CA60 – 53.59, CF% – 50.1%Major Observations: GF60, GF%, and CF60 jump out immediately. Vanek seems to score at double the rate away from Larkin but Larkin’s possession stats are better away from Vanek (apart from CF% slightly).

Another reason I wanted to look at those WOWY numbers is because of Larkin especially. He’s probably one of a handful of players that can match Connor McDavid’s speed and that has been a point of contention in Edmonton recently when talking about players that can produce with McDavid. Lucic and Eberle are too slow (But Draisaitl and Maroon are the next comings of Selanne and Bure…)

Since Larkin isn’t producing more than Vanek away from him, I’ll say this shouldn’t be a concern when considering Vanek as a winger for Connor.

If Jordan Eberle can continue on the pace he is, he should end the season with around 16 goals and 52 points. Vanek? Nearly the same but for a third of what Eberle is being paid AND he’s a shooter w/size… That being said, we are waiting for Eberle’s shooting percentage to come back to normal as he usually shoots around 14% and he’s firing blanks so far this year (7.8%).

What you won’t like about Vanek… He’s streaky, can look Eberlazy, and he’s staying about as healthy as Taylor Hall (Sorry, had to get that in there. Oh! Did you know that Patrick Maroon has 5 more goals than Hall this year?). Plus, don’t expect much defense out of the guy. His 5v5 Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts) Against per 60 Relative to Teammates is 4.04 and that places him 271 out of 305 fwds. The silver lining there is that his nearest peers are players like Jeff Carter and Jeff Skinner.

The Price You Pay

Vanek is making $2.6M for this year only and I feel that’s very affordable. Not as affordable as say, Radim Vrbata ($1M) but definitely not as expensive as Jarome Iginla (%5.3M).

I’d expect him to cost a premium IF the Oilers were to ring up Ken Holland and inquire as to the asking price. Now, given that Detroit has draft picks for every round in the upcoming draft, I don’t believe that would be a priority but they’d have to be included. I’m also of the belief that the Red Wings would rather not go the route of a long rebuild. So, I’m going to say IF I was in the GM’s seat in the Motor City, I’d look for younger players that are NHLers already or on the verge of becoming full-time NHLers.

What do the Oilers have that fit that bill that they’d be willing to move?

  • Brandon Davidson (LHD): For sure. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Davy is better than Ryan Sproul, Xavier Ouellet, Nick Jensen, and Alexey Marchenko.
  • Anton Lander (C/W): Remember the damage he did when Todd Nelson was the coach of the Oilers for that short time after the Eakins firing? Well, Nelson is the Red Wings minor league coach. Is the connection too obvious?
  • Mark Fayne (RHD): Fayne doesn’t quite fit the description of young NHLer but Detroit’s defense looks to be in shambles with all the injuries. Would they be interested in a player with the kind of experience that Fayne has? Contract would be a problem here though, I’m sure.
  • Anton Slepyshev (RW): The Russian would most likely be the player traded I think. He’s got speed, size, grooming time in the AHL, he’s gritty. I mean, I wish the Oilers would toss him up on the big team some more so we could watch him but I think the Red Wings could envision a line where Dylan Larkin centres Evgeni Svechnikov and Anton Slepyshev and they’d light the NHL on fire.

Others include: Iiro Pakarinen, Jordan Oesterle, and Dillon Simpson.

Sorry, I can’t see the Red Wings having a use for Benoit Pouliot unless the Oilers included a good prospect and a 1st rounder.

Right now the Oilers are at 48/50 contracts. So any deals they make should be a 2 for 1, or the Lowetide-famous, 3 for 1.

That defense in Bakersfield needs to be trimmed up a bit. They’ve got Joey “I was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award” Laleggia playing LW for Heaven’s sake.

In conclusion, I feel that anytime you have the option to add a veteran that has scored over 300 goals in the NHL, that’s something, as a GM, you should be doing.

10 years after the original offer sheet, it’s time to bring Thomas Vanek to Edmonton. For real this time.

Click on the pic and grab a new 16-bit Fighting Looch tee!