19 Games to Set Up the Oilers for 2018/19 + The Reason Pontus Aberg NEEDS to Play More!

During last night’s Oilers/Sharks game I was pleased as punch to see Edmonton kicking the snot out of San Jose in the 1st period. I thought we might have something here… And then the hit.

Look, the play was moving quickly but that’s no excuse to the clown in stripes with his eyes fixated right on the play in question. It’s no wonder the NHL’s stars are openly mocking the refs and throwing their equipment at them on the ice. It’s BS.

The other thing that was BS was the lack of a response from the Oilers after the incident occurred. Where was Matt Benning’s backup? At least one of Klefbom, Draisaitl, Rattie, or Cammalleri could’ve bull rushed Kane…

I remember a lot of this during Taylor Hall’s days as the de-facto “leader” of the Oilers. I didn’t like it then and I don’t like it now. To me, it displays a lack of togetherness on the club despite what I’ve been told by those I’ve talked to who are VERY close to the players.

Just quick I want to talk about the goals that came after the Kane incident.

First off, it’s a team game and so everybody can take a slice of the blame pie but did Cam Talbot have a chance on any of the remaining goals?

  • Sharks 2nd goal from Braun was tipped by Lucic.
  • Sharks 3rd goal went off of Sekera’s leg.
  • Sharks 4th goal was a roof daddy special but Talbot was out of position anticipating the pass across.

Maybe the 4th goal Talbot could’ve done a better job but I have a hard time faulting him for the first two. I’d say get outta the way Milan on #2 and Leon, you gotta do a better job containing Meier so he doesn’t walk out and get a clean chance on net for goal #3.

If really feels like the other teams are scoring at least 1 flukey goal a game vs. Edmonton this year. I think the Oilers should fire Peter Chiarelli because of that… What?!

Milan Lucic is leading the team in posts hit this year, right? How much would have that turned the course of the game had he scored on that wide open cage?

Anyways, that game is over. Now to look forward to the remaining 19…

This is what I want to see from the Oilers to play out the season:

  • Keep Leon and Connor away unless it’s an absolute imperative that they must be reunited.
  • Put Nuge on Connor’s LW because we need to see what Strome and Khaira can do down the middle. If all three perform well in their given assignments, that will do a few things:
    • It’ll give the Oilers a scoring LW instead of having to trade out for one.
    • It’ll give the Oilers their bottom-6 centres.
    • It’ll give the Oilers a chance to simply focus on re-signing players instead of having to focus on acquiring new ones.
  • Good, consistent performances from the players who are underperforming this year. Those include:
    • Matt Benning
    • Drake Caggiula
    • Oscar Klefbom
    • Zack Kassian
  • For Puljujarvi to go on a nice scoring run to show everyone there’s a player there. Maybe the addition of Pontus Aberg helps that?
  • Connor McDavid’s march to the Art Ross should be fascinating as well
  • But don’t discount Leon Draisaitl’s ongoing assault on the scoring charts. Can he make it into the top ten despite having an “off” year?

Funny thing with Jesse, he’s “only” scored 11 goals and 14 assists in 74 games to date but did you know that by the time Phil Kessel had played 70 games, he only had 11 goals? Did you know Jakob Voracek only scored 9 goals in his first 80 games or that Matt Tkachuk had only 13 goals by game 76. Even Marian Hossa took more than 66 games to score 15 goals.

This is a 19-year-old man-child growing up in front of our eyes. He’s not McDavid and he’s not Leon but he’s going to be a force for this team someday. Book it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0H7LfylDeY

Bloody kid almost fluffed it too… I wonder when he’s going to do something about that twig of his… Seems like it’s more a hindrance than a tool of scoring destruction. Good to see the Grinnin’ Finn smiling again though!

Now sometimes I make the mistake of heading over to Hockeybuzz to read Matt Henderson’s BS and something usually sets me off. Well, today it happened.

In addition to questionable standard scoring stats, Aberg has been challenged to maintain decent possession numbers relative to his team. He was at the bottom of Nashville’s forward group in Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, and Scoring Chances. All the shot metrics. All of them! 

What Henderson didn’t tell you is that Pontus Aberg was near the top of Nashville’s team (and the whole league for that matter) for goals for % (GF%) and high-danger goals for % (HDGF%).

Even higher than Connor McDavid has for Edmonton.

Aberg’s GF% was 62.96% (6th best LWer in the NHL) and his HDGF% was 69.23% (4th best LWer in the NHL). Those numbers are for LWs who played more than 390 minutes and at 5×5 and they’re courtesy of naturalhattrick.com.

If I’m correct, what this means is that when Aberg’s line was on the ice nearly 63% of the goals were scored by his team and nearly 70% of the high-danger chances were converted into a goal for. 

And I’m not sure if Matty-Boy has noticed but the increased possession totals haven’t helped the team score goals let alone win games. As illustrated by the Minnesota Wild being 30th in the league in CF% and Chicago being 3rd.

It’s fine to be good in the shooting metrics but you can’t base your opinion of a player simply on shooting stats.

And one more number to help everyone feel better about the addition of Pontus Aberg. His sv% is 3rd in the NHL at 95.52% and what that tells us is the other team has a helluva time scoring when his line is on the ice.

Now I know that taking a player who’s played not even 60 games and trying to pump his tires isn’t the best use of statistics but it goes the other way too when you’re criticizing a player. His possession numbers are horrid, it’s easy to see that but… #smallsamplesize

So I’ll add Pontus Aberg’s impact in the final 19 games as one of the things I’m looking forward to watching.

Lastly, I was listening to yesterday’s Oilers Now and a few things jumped out at me.

  • Chiarelli had minimal offers coming in.

This coincides with what the Oilers GM said at his presser, that the market was pretty dry. Stauffer also said that Boston trading for Rick Nash hurt Maroon’s trade value and the return Vancouver got for Tomas Vanek killed it.

Was Peter Chiarelli aggressive enough at the deadline? Nobody can be sure but pushing on a closed door is a good way to get shot.

  • Stauffer said he knows for a fact that Tampa was “bird dogging” Maroon because of the questions he was being asked by other scouts AND seeing Tampa Bay’s AGM Pat Verbeek at the Oilers games.

This is interesting because the pundits said there was ZERO interest in Maroon from Tampa…

  • Stauffer also said there was action on Strome.

I’d keep an eye on this. Strome is still a young player and one that can toss up 15 or more goals a year. Could he be sacrificed to bring in an older player at the same price point? I guess that depends on how his final 19 games go, right?

I’ve come to really like Strome. He’s finally finding his stride in Edmonton and his work on the PK since going there full-time has been quite good.

  • Stauffer and Spector asked each other, would you do Klefbom for Barrie or RNH for Barrie?

Both said yes to offer A and no to offer B and I’m in agreeance.

I believe that a lateral move here wouldn’t hurt the team. To me, Oscar Klefbom is a solid 2-way defender but he’s the one with the value and he plays in a position that is a point of organizational strength for the Oilers. His contract is good, his age is good but he’s not making the impact that this team needs.

So if the Oilers could get Barrie for Klefbom, do it. If the Avs insist on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers must insist on Barrie and the 1st round pick that Colorado obtained from Ottawa in the Duchene deal because that could very well turn into Jack Hughes aka Pat Kane v2 minus the dirtbaggedness.

  • Chiarelli also mentioned adding speed to his team, more spcifically w/regards to moving the puck.

I assume Chiarelli is talking about his defenders.

This has been one of my major pet peeves this season. Slow puck moving from the defense and I’m surprised that the coaches haven’t altered their gameplans because of it. Have the forwards come down and gather the puck if the defenders can’t pass it fast enough or rush it up the ice.

Whatever he does, it’s sure to divide the fanbase even further. lol

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2018 Oilers Trade Deadline Fallout

It’s over! It’s all over! The 2018 NHL Trade Deadline is over and f-me, as an Oilers fan, am I glad. Now we can finally go back to watching hockey like normal people. But boy is it going to be weird watching an Oilers team without Mark Letestu and Pat Maroon.

As everybody knew would happen, as soon as the Pat Maroon trade came in the Oilogosphere immediately went up in flames! Bloody Oilers fans eh?… lol

This is what happens when teams with uber deep prospect pools start whispers about upgrading. If you’re truly pissed off, blame the pundits because they are the ones that told us Jordan Kyrou or Taylor Raddysh could be used to acquire upgrades for their teams.

The reality of today’s NHL is that teams aren’t moving those high-end players as often anymore because they need them for their own club. Be that to help cushion the blow of a tight salary cap or simply for talent.

The NHL is getting younger and younger every year. So don’t expect too much out of the NHL draft either. The insiders will sell you on the idea that some big names are going to move in Dallas this summer at the draft but don’t believe them. Some guys will of course move because teams don’t have to worry about the salary cap during the summer and they’ll have that whole time up until the beginning of October to get their financials straight but I would say that TB and STL will be keeping their prized prospects.

THE TRADES

Pat Maroon to NJ for Joey Dudek+2019 3rd round pick

Everyone thought when the Grabner deal went down that the market was set for Patty but boy were they wrong. I even noticed some asking why Maroon didn’t bring back a 1st rounder or even a 2nd rounder. Well, to explain why here are a couple of tweets I sent out that should explain things clearly:

Peter Chiarelli said the market was tough. Well, you can’t say he was lying. You might say he could work on his negotiation tactics though :p

My Thoughts: Well I wanted to say that this was a clear loss but it’s not a clear one at all. The players that are comparable to Maroon only netted their teams marginal NHLers (Motte/Jokinen) or late round draft picks.

It’s my understanding that Maroon’s lower body injury played a part in the negotiations as well.

I’m going to give this a passing grade. It’s not a win but it’s not a loss either. Fact is, the Oilers traded a 3rd rounder and Martin Gernat to acquire the Big Rig AND they got ANH to retain salary. Now, they’ve dealt the UFA-to-be for a 3rd rounder and a prospect with speed and skill.

This Dudek kid is intriguing though. He’s a former 6th rounder (like Brandon Davidson).

Dudek has elite-level skill and skating. When he is on the attack, he is a team player first. He gets his teammates involved with good vision and decision making with the puck. He needs to get stronger and quicker on the ice, but he has shown in the past his commitment to becoming a better overall hockey player. – Hockey’s Future (source)

Here’s Dudek’s profile over at sbncollegehockey.com

I fully expect the Oilers to re-visit Pat Maroon’s agent this summer and for the Oilers to offer him a contract.

Mark Letestu to Nashville for Pontus Aberg

Letestu has no intentions of coming back to Edmonton this summer and the Oilers need speed and skill from the wings.

Pontus Aberg fits the bill perfectly in terms of what Chiarelli was looking for at the deadline this year and the Oilers needed a real human, not a pick, to put into the lineup for the rest of the year.

I’ve heard that Aberg has the Linus Omark skill but with a much better attitude.

My Thoughts: Straight out win for the Oilers here. Letestu is a UFA and even if Aberg doesn’t pan out, they get to give the Swede a test-run and he’s cheap. I think a shade under 700k if I’m not mistaken. I’m not exactly sure of his waiver eligibility though. If he is okay to go to the minors, that would make this trade even better.

Brandon Davidson to the Islanders for a 3rd round pick in 2019

I hated to see Davy go because I loved his attitude on the ice. He was a tough customer out there and gave it 100%. He didn’t bring much offense to the game mind you but he was a solid bottom pairing defender on this 2nd go-round with the Oilers

My Thoughts: Anytime you can turn a waiver pick up into a 3rd rounder, you do it. This is a clear win for Chiarelli.

Could we have used Davidson next year? I think so but I think he needs to be qualified at $1.6M and that’s too much for a no.6/7 dman I guess.

So at the end of the weekend, the Oilers lose three roster players and add 1 back. They add two more picks to their stable for 2019 which is good because that supposed to be an insane draft. That said, Chiarelli told us that he would like to use those picks to acquire young prospects who are near NHL-ready.

So we’ll have to wait and see what he does with those picks IF he gets the chance.

The Oilers lost three good men at the deadline this year. Players that are your glue and character in the dressing room. Maroon and Letestu were the buffers between the coaches and the players. Now we’re going to see what this group is made of and for me, as long as they show me effort and score some goals, that’s all I can ask for.

Give me effort and give me goals.

RANDOM NOTES

  • Be wary of the upcoming NCAA playoffs starting this week. Some NCAA free agents will become available this weekend and I expect the Oilers to be in on some. Max Veronneau is one to keep an eye on.
  • Those expecting Milan Lucic to start losing all of that cherry TOI now that the deadline is over are going to be disappointed. McLellan will definitely ride that guy until he’s off the schneid. He’ll be McDavid’s partner until then.
  • Jordan Eberle had 13 goals at this time last year. Ryan Strome has 12… Weird.
  • Mike Cammalleri wasn’t being shopped despite playing top-6 minutes. I wonder if the Oilers bring him back for next season?
  • Don’t be surprised if the Klefbom/Krug rumor start to pick up as we get closer to the draft. The Oilers need a PP specialist and Krug is exactly that!
  • Lastly, the best deal is sometimes the trade you don’t make. If you’re feeling down about the deadline just think, the Oilers still have Nurse, RNH, Klefbom, Slepyshev, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, etc. The future is bright!

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Letestu Traded TWICE! Oilers get Aberg!

https://twitter.com/RealKyper/status/967812896825606144

Looks like the Oilers have made their first move of the day! Pontus Aberg is an excellent return in my opinion and I think his speed and skill on the wing will be welcomed with open arms on this team.

Chiarelli has addressed a need and in due time as well! One thing you can say about Chiarelli, he does what he says he’s going to do.

 

Here’s a quick scouting report on Aberg from Dobber’s Prospects!

Aberg has tremendous speed and offensive talent. He still has potential to be a top-six forward for the Predators, but will need to display his skills on a more consistent basis.

What do you think about the trade? I’ll have more on the trades later!

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Oilers Live Podcast, Davidson Trade Part Deux, and Today’s Latest Trade Speculation

A few nights ago I was on the Oilers Live Podcast with Sean from theoilknight.ca and we talked about a plethora of things including:

  • the Oilers to date and why they are where they are and who’s to blame.
  • Their developmental system (or lack thereof)
  • Erik Karlsson and where he might end up
  • Pat Maroon and the recent rumors on his destination including one city nobody has thought of yet.
  • All the latest Oilers trade speculation.

You should head over to Mike’s website and also subscribe to his podcast as every week he’s got either a handful of Oilers die hard fans being interviewed or bloggers/journalists who cover other NHL teams. His latest before the one I was on was with former Edmonton Oiler Jason Strudwick and it was a beauty!

BRANDON DAVIDSON TRADED AGAIN!

So far Brandon Davidson has been an excellent source of “income” for Peter Chiarelli. Last year at the trade deadline Davidson was dealt for David Desharnais, who in turn provided the team with some excellent veteran leadership and a critical OT goal in the playoffs vs. San Jose and Now Chiarelli has acquired a 2019 3rd round pick for the defenseman from the New York Islanders.

I think it’s an awesome trade. Anytime you can turn a waiver wire acquisition into a 3rd round draft pick, you’re doing something right.

Would I have preferred to keep him? Hell yes! I really have enjoyed Davidson’s effort and impact on the team since being selected off of the waiver wire but I do understand that he’s a dman with value, he’ll never be anything more than a bottom pairing defender in the NHL, and that by dealing him Chiarelli opened up another roster spot on the 50-man list.

How do you think everyone else reacted to the deal?

https://twitter.com/OilersWizard/status/967533897129984000

https://twitter.com/Oceanstormprint/status/967532434840469504

Those are the AGAINSTs. The way I see it, unless Davidson would’ve brought back a 1st rounder or a top pairing right-handed powerplay specialist, the trade was going to be a fail in their eyes anyhow.

Here are some FORs:

https://twitter.com/puckmarks/status/967487954103906304

Let’s look at some of the analytics bloggers Twitter opinions on the trade.

https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/967495873616891904

Lordy that is a lot of tweets. So, I think, as usual, the fanbase is divided on the deal.

Look, the Isles get a nice depth dman and the Oilers get another asset to which they could use, and Chiarelli said he would prefer to do this, to try and obtain a near-NHL ready prospect at the draft. Another thing he could do is use it to try and move up in the draft this year.

One more positive, the Oilers are 1-0 in the post-Davidson era 🙂

LATEST ON THE TRADE FRONT

I suspect now that Rick Nash is a Boston Bruin that Pat Maroon will be going to Tampa Bay. I mean I guess the Bruins could pick Maroon up to if they wanted to really go for it.

Who might the Lightning give up for the Big Rig? Who knows to be honest but here are a few names to let percolate in your head bone:

  • Vladimir Namestnikov
  • Anthony Cirelli
  • Matthew Peca

If I recall correctly, Winnipeg is in on Letestu and Maroon and you can add Mike Cammalleri to that list. Putting up 10 pts in the last 10 games tends to put you on the radar of other teams this time of year and if Davidson can bring a 3rd rounder, Plekanec can get the Habs some solid prospects, and Nash can bring in 4 pieces for the Rags, surely Maroon, Letestu, and Cammalleri will net the Oilers 1, if not two, acceptable young players who will have a chance to show what their worth down the stretch.

I’m hoping that Chiarelli clears some roster room up at this deadline too.

Winnipeg is in “win-now” mode more than ever right now. The iron is hot and they NEED to strike. But you know what? St.Louis is awfully quiet right now… The pundits are tossing Jake Allen’s name out there… Do the Oilers and Blues get together on a deal? It’d have to be a money in, money out type of deal though. St.Louis is right up against the cap at the moment.

You know what’s going to happen right? All three of those guys will head to teams that we never even thought of.. lol.

I was having a conversation with a buddy of mine at hockey last night and he suggested Josh Ho-Sang in return for that draft pick Davidson got the Oilers…

What do you think?

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The Rumoured Offer for Pat Maroon

The Oilers have an offer on the table for Patrick Maroon from the Boston Bruins. It is Austin Czarnik and a 2nd round pick. No word on if that pic was for the upcoming draft or the next.

Interesting eh?

I was hoping for a player of a bit more significance but let’s look at this Czarnik kid and maybe our opinions will turn faster than an analytics blogger who once described Peter Chiarelli as a very smart man and now refers to his supports as the Flat Earthers of hockey. Love you too G!


So just from looking at his numbers alone, we can see that there’s offense in them hills. Something that’s really working for him is that size doesn’t seem to be much of an issue anymore. Not that that has been an issue for him in the past but the little guy is making a return!

I also like that he’s right-handed and after the Oilers trade Mark Letestu, they’ll need another righty on the team.

Now, I’m not sure if he’ll be a centre at the NHL level. I think he’s more suited for the wing to be honest but then again Desharnais isn’t that big and Letestu isn’t either.

At the minor league level he is 5th in the AHL for pts/game with a 1.1 in all situations (25th 5×5 w/ .59 pts/game) but most of his points are garnered on the PP. As for his PP pts/game he sits at 3rd in the AHL with .44. These numbers are for players who’ve played more than 30 games and I got them at this fantastic website called prospect-stats.com

So how about some scouting reports on Czarnik?

In Czarnik’s 56 games, he’s been a terrific “possession” player, for lack of a better work. He holds a 53.8 CF%, and a 53.2 xGF%. – Stanley Cup of Chowder (source)

This ties into the new possession team that Chiarelli has been building since he was hired. So I dig that.

If Czarnik continues to improve at the AHL level he may not be far from getting a long look with the Bruins. Small and crafty his game follows the mould of Gaudreau or Kane while not being quite so polished. Injuries will be a risk for such an undersized centre, however, smaller forwards are having success in today’s NHL. – Dobber’s Prospects (source)

I’m not sure he’ll get to Kane and Gaudreau status but I would expect a player with the offensive acumen that Czarnik has to be better than say Drake Caggiula. Maybe they’re different players though.

The bottom line is that some guys can skate fast if that is their primary focus. For Czarnik, being that fast is easy enough that he can start thinking two or three steps ahead of everyone else. – SBN College Hockey (source) 

Hockey IQ I’ve decided is going to be the attribute that will be of the utmost importance going forward in hockey. The physical tools can be developed and fine tuned but hockey IQ will be paramount in the future.

Lastly, Czarnik is an RFA at season’s end and he’s only making a shade under 700k this year. The fact that he’s played 3/4 of a season in the NHL will not help him make more than that 700k in my opinion and IF this deal does go down, I reckon Czarnik’s new contract will fall under the category of “Value Contracts” for whatever team he’s playing for.

I don’t think he’s banged up as much as the team is leading us to believe. It’s trade deadline on Monday and Maroon is heading out. He’s being rested for that reason. Now if his effort is in question and they’re sitting him for that, I take issue there. This season there have been plenty other players who should’ve sat for less-than-satisfactory performances.

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