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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Keith Fries, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects, Rumors, TPE Hockey, Trades

Edmonton Oilers: Bob Stauffer On the Potential Return for Jesse Puljujarvi

Every day it’s going to be touch and go with regards to my favorite Finnish Oiler, Jesse Puljujarvi, isn’t it? Yesterday morning on Oilers Now, after opening the show up with “Rock You Like a Hurricane” (can you lay it on any thicker Bob?), Bob Stauffer really sort of laid out what the possible return for Pulju might be in a trade and went as far as to explain why in detail. I’ll put the transcriptions below so you don’t have to chase down the audio.

Well, here’s where we’re kind of at right now. Logic dictates, the teams that are interested in JP, they’ve probably let the Oilers know at this stage because they probably want to have things in place by July 1st.

Let’s say you have a RFA forward that’s played roughly the same amount of games as Puljujarvi, Puljujarvi by the way is an RFA as well, and you’re thinking, “You know what? We think Puljujarvi has a higher upside than our guy and our guy is probably going to be required to be paid $1.75M-$2.25M. Maybe we bring Puljujarvi in and we just qualify him and he gets, you know, 10% bump on 925k base, which would take him just over a million bucks.”

You’re going to need to know that before you dip into free agency. Mmmkay? If you’re the Oilers, you’re going to want to know what you’re getting back for Puljujarvi and I would suggest to you that there’s multiple teams that are in on him, Ok? And if you’re Edmonton, you’re going, “Are we getting back a guy that is $2M-$2.5M, cause if we do get that guy back; that might take us out of the mix of some potential mid-range free agents that we’re looking at up front. 

Clearly the Oilers have experienced defensemen. They’ve got a plethora now, especially with the addition of Broberg, of some young “D” that are coming. It’s probably the deepest part of the organization, Evan Bouchard, Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov. Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, William Lagesson… Not out of the realm of possibilities in three years from now, three or four of those guys could be in the Oilers defense moving forward. 

So why not use one as a sweetener in a trade to open up some cap space?

But up front there’s movement that’s potentially available. I put a tweet out last week believing the Oilers could spend $2.5M-$3M, maybe $3.5M at the high-end on one forward and then sign a couple other forwards one 1-way deals at like 800k. So, we mentioned Brett Connolly yesterday on Twitter. Could he get $4M somewhere? He might. I’d have to talk to Gerry Johannson about that. In a perfect world in Edmonton, if he could get him at $3Mx3, he might make sense. I’m just not convinced they can get him at that price point. 

Some names out there, assuming that maybe a guy like Brett Ritchie doesn’t get qualified out of Dallas, he was making $1.75M last year… Daniel Carr was a free agent, he is a UFA by the way, Ritchie an RFA. Maybe those are guys you can get in the 800k to $1M range. In fact, I’m sure you could if you offered them a 1-way deal.

You know… If you deal Kris Russell out, that will open up a significant amount of cap space and then you wouldn’t really have to worry about this sort of thing… The Oilers might even be able to sign TWO mid-range free agents. Imagine that! Picking up Joonas Donskoi AND Brett Connolly… Crazy, right?

So time will tell on that front, but you need to know what you’re going to get back. An argument could be made what makes the most sense for Edmonton is a guy who has spent the last couple of seasons in the minors and is ready to take the next step. So, for the sake of argument, we’ve mentioned Julien Gauthier out of Carolina. Sebastian Aho is with the Carolina Hurricanes, Gerry Johannson is gonna be busy cause he’s got Aho and Brayden Point and those guys are huge players for the organizations they’re with. My guess is with Sebastian Aho believes he can make Jesse Puljujarvi a player and if I was Carolina, Tom Dundon, and trust me, it’s Tom Dundon, I would be willing to make that bet. 

The analytics folks are probably just salivating at the idea of buying low on Puljujarvi here and given how involved they are in Carolina, it makes perfect sense why they are getting the push here from the media.

So the Hurricanes look at moving a prospect to Edmonton for Puljujarvi, I’d think they would contemplate that. Would Tampa Bay do it? They have tons of 2nd round and 3rd round players over the last few years contributing on their farm team, they need a younger cheaper guy. Maybe they look at Puljujarvi. People mention Pittsburgh, possibly. And again, what’s the return going to be?

If I’m looking at the Hurricanes farm roster, I would think Janne Kuokkanen or Morgan Geekie would be players worth considering. They’re 5×5 pts/60 are 0.49 and 0.44 respectively, whereas Julien Gauthier’s sits at 0.37. I mean none of them scream “NHL PLAYER!!!” but we are where we are and I can see why Gauthier would stand out. He scored 27 goals and has seen a substantial increase in his production since the season prior, going from 25 points in 2017/18 to 41 in 2018/19. He’s also 6’4″ and 225lbs too.

I don’t really know what Bob’s talking about regarding Tampa’s “tons of 2nd/3rd rounders that have been contributing. Junior scoring sensations Boris Katchouk and Taylor Raddysh have just finished up their rookie seasons in the AHL and combined for 69pts between the two and really their 5×5 pts/60 wasn’t much better than the Canes’ prospects above (0.20 for Katchouk and 0.43 for Raddysh). Alexandre Volkov is another player who might garner interest but you have to wonder after two 40+ point seasons in the AHL, can he take the next step? The oldest “prospect” of the group, Carter Verhaeghe, is the only one producing for Syracuse but he IS an RFA… Over the last four seasons in the AHL, this young man has produced seasons of 15, 29, 48, and 82 points. This past year he had a 5×5 pts/60 of 0.63 but he’s also 23 years old.

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Bringing us to Pittsburgh. Do they have any RFA prospects? They do, but they spent good chunks of the year with the Pens. Teddy Blueger is a 24-year-old Latvian forward who posted 39pts in 45 games for the Baby Pens last season and had a 5×5 pts/60 of 0.6. He might be tempting. Another player is Zach Ashton-Reese, he was a highly sought after NCAA free agent but has been a bit riddled with injuries in his two seasons with Pittsburgh so far. He did have a cup of coffee in Wilkes-Barre last year, 11 games where he put up 9pts. I watched him a little bit and he’s a thick guy who goes to the dirty areas. He was a really good scorer at the collegiate level but that hasn’t quite translated to the NHL yet.

I just can’t recommend any of these guys I listed in an exchange for Jesse Puljujarvi though. But what about these RFAs?

Again, not my first choices, I’m just trying to do what I can here. Both players haven’t been able to get going at all with their NHL clubs and have spent times in and out of the AHL for the past two or three seasons.

I do think a US market would probably work better for Puljujarvi, I think he needs to be gradually brought along. But to me, the best place, if I was Markus Lehto, the best place I’d be happiest with for Jesse would be Carolina. So we’ll wait and see on that front but it’s my belief that it has to get done in the next 3-4 days IF it’s going to happen. He’s going to be one of the story lines. 

I don’t quite get why Stauffer is saying that Pulju needs to be gradually brought along? Isn’t that part of the reason Jesse doesn’t want to play for the Oilers? Because they’re not giving him the ice-time he thinks he can perform best in?

For Markus Lehto, would he be happiest for himself that Jesse would be playing in Carolina because he has a client there already in Teuvo Teravainen? Jim Rutherford was the GM in Carolina when Lehto was dealing with Teravainen and his issues getting NHL TOI in Chicago, right? What happened there? Chicago needed to unload a contract and Teuvo was included as the sweetener.  Rutherford was also the GM in Pittsburgh when another one of Lehto’s clients, Kasperi Kapanen was having trouble getting traction in that organization and what happened with that? He was the main piece of the trade that brought Phil Kessel to Pittsburgh. So there’s a working relationship between Pittsburgh’s GM and Lehto.

One texter wrote in and in so many words told him how stupid it would be for the Oilers to trade Puljujarvi to the Hurricanes for Julien Gauthier and his reply was, “Well. We’ll have to see.” The writing is pretty much on the wall, eh?

I think for myself, I’m having a hard time trying to nail down the want for Edmonton here. I don’t buy this “cap space” narrative at all from the Oilers end. Move Russell, Lucic, or Sekera with the 1st rounder and Voila! Cap space! Or is it that they want Puljujarvi out? Has it been the organization all along that has been pushing this and Lehto and Jesse simply playing along?

Ken Holland was sounding pretty tough before the draft and now it sounds like the stance has softened which is a bit disconcerting. Now we’re hearing that the returns for JP could be a 2nd round pick or middle-6 winger or an RFA who’s played a similar amount of games to Jesse but yet to break through… It’s all over the place and that screams confusion or misinformation…

The best thing, I think, is for the Oilers to give this the Drouin treatment and maybe wait this out until the week before opening night, see who’s in a tight spot and then try to work out a deal there. Too add to that, Kasperi Kapanen and Teuvo Teravainan have turned out pretty well for their new clubs. That should simply be the expectation for Puljujarvi as well here, and with that, the Oilers had better not be accepting an AHL prospect in return.

Some of you might think that Jesse Puljujarvi stinks. He’s not a good player and he has no value at all and that’s fine. I happen to disagree. He does have value and if he didn’t, “lots and lots of GMs” wouldn’t be calling trying to fleece Holland.

So we wait… Will the Edmonton Oilers continue to trade young players and receive pennies on the dollar or will they flip that script and do something different this time?

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Edmonton Oilers: Late Round Options for the 2019 NHL Draft from @TPEHockey

With the 2019 NHL draft only days away, Max from TPE Hockey has let us in on a few late round picks who could actually be diamonds in the rough. As Oilers fans, we know that Edmonton has a history of poor picks in the later rounds but Max here has five players that he thinks would be good picks.

Please follow Max on Twitter here.

Harrison Blaisdell

Blaisdell is a versatile center playing for the Chilliwack Chiefs in the BCHL. He has a combination of offensive skills allowing him to be a tough threat to contain in the offensive zone. His shot shows you everything you want to see from an 18-year-old: quick release, high velocity, and solid accuracy. His shot pairs well with his quick thinking. While he can move the puck to dangerous areas very well while his shot must be respected too.

His two-way play is also quite intriguing. He creates turnovers at an impressive rate from my viewings and turned many of those turnovers into offense. Blaisdell’s strong transition game allows him to turn his d-zone steals into offensive opportunities. Much of this strong transition play comes from his skating abilities. Blaisdell’s east to west skating is phenomenal and his north-south movement is above average.

In the BCHL, he was the 3rd U18 player in scoring this year. He put up 33 goals and 58 points over the course of his 51 game BCHL season. He made big strides from his draft minus one season where he struggled to produce and compete at the junior level. Now, after his acclimation, he’s become a strong competitor and all-around threat.

Blaisdell is slated to be heading to the University of North Dakota in the 20-21 season. Although after his explosion this season he could be NCAA bound for this coming season. Blaisdell can be expected to be off the board in the 3rd or 4th round.

Jayden Struble

Struble, like the next player on this list, is a bit of a wildcard as a prep schooler in his draft year. He’s a favorite of many on Hockey Twitter after his feature by Andy Lehoux (below) and his strong performance at the Combine. Struble spent last season on the blueline for St. Sebastian’s School in Massachusetts. He scored 10 goals and 40 points over 28 games against the toughest competition in the US prep school scene.

Struble became more widely known after his sheer dominance at the NHL Combine. He was by far the leading performer, winning multiple events. While many of the Combine’s results are often put off as nearly useless in the general scheme of things, Struble’s off ice prowess translates well. His power is clearly seen in his skating ability. He cuts through the neutral zone with speed and is impossible to contain. He can utilize his puck skills and make decisions at high speeds which makes him as dangerous as he is.

The 6’0” defender also plays a strong defensive game. He’s as physical as you’d expect a big, strong defenseman to be, but doesn’t go out of the way to be physical. He closes lanes, shuts down rushes, and holds the blueline very well.

Next season Struble will play for the Victoria Grizzlies in the BCHL before heading off to Northeastern University. Struble can be expected to get picked anywhere from the late 2nd to the 4th round.

Jackson LaCombe

Another wildcard prep school blueliner Is Jackson LaCombe. LaCombe put on a show with the prestigious Shattuck St. Mary’s program scoring 89 points in just 54 games in Minnesota’s top prep school league. His name might be familiar from his Hlinka Gretzky Cup appearance, although he was fairly invisible at on stage.

LaCombe became a more widely known prospect a bit of a ways into this season when he started to rack up points. He turned down an offer to play this season with Chicago in the USHL, opting to only play a few games with them.

Like Jayden Struble, LaCombe is a strong skating, puck moving defensemen. He has a fluid stride, great transition play, and a creative playmaker.

The concern is not only that LaCombe played in prep school, but struggled in his short times at high levels in his quick stints with Team USA and the Chicago Steel. LaCombe is a high upside, low floor player who is probably off the board in the 3rd to 5th rounds.

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Patrick Moynihan

When asked who the most underrated USNTDP player was, all of his teammates at the combine said Patrick Moynihan.

Moynihan plays a well-rounded game in all three zones. As a center, he fills defensive and offensive assignments perfectly. He’s good at getting to open areas and finishing or getting pucks to dangerous areas. He’s not the most skilled player, but he gets the job done.

His stats don’t jump off the page with only 22 points in 28 USHL games, but he was pushed down the lineup on one of the strongest U18 teams ever assembled. He will play for Providence in the NCAA next year. Expect Moynihan to be a 4th rounder on draft day.

Domenick Fensore

A 5’7” NHL defenseman is something not seen in a long, long, long time. Although if one player is going to appear on an NHL blueline at that height it will be Dom Fensore. He is known for his dynamic skating and offensive skill. He’s no doubt a top 5 skater in this draft. I don’t need to list out his strengths in skating because every aspect of it is top notch. His edges are so good that it allows him to be able to play both sides. As a left-handed defensemen, he is commonly seen on the right side and thriving. He also loves to jump into the play below the tops of the circles and is able to get back into position after he does it.

Fensore, while primarily an offensive threat, he still has great defensive instincts. He plays a great defensive game, he does everything right. It’s just that lacks the size. As a 3rd pairing d-man, he was over a PPG in the USHL and is bound for Boston University in the NCAA. Fensore could go anywhere from the 2nd to 7th round due to debates over his size.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PvJ1UC1RHs

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Keith Fries, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects, TPE Hockey, Trades

BLH Oilers Mailbag: 2019 NHL Draft SPECIAL with @KeithFries and @TPEHockey

With the NHL Entry Draft this Friday and Saturday, let’s circle the wagons one last time with a questionnaire for both of our contributing scouts, Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@keithfries). I’ll be participating in this exercise 🙂

Question #1: With the 8th-overall pick, do the Edmonton Oilers move up, trade back, or stay put?

Max: Personally, I always prefer staying put. Moving forward can work out if a team really has an eye on a certain player, but at the 8th-overall spot moving up just a few picks can be costly. Trading back is risky as your guy may be off the board. I’d see Edmonton staying put and selecting from the various talents in the deep #5-#14 range, of this class.

Keith: If you look at Ken Holland’s recent track record, at the draft, he doesn’t usually move up or down. I see him staying put because a) it’s in his nature and b) because the options at #8 are probably as equal as they would be if he moved up to, say, 6th-overall. He might slide back a spot-or-two if he can pick up a valuable asset in a trade, but I just don’t see that happening.

BLH: I concur with the scouts on this one. I don’t really see the advantage in moving up to anything apart from 3rd overall and I can’t see that happening. Trading down would be a more likely event given the group of players ranked #4 to #12, but even then, I just don’t see the point. Get your guy at 8 and walk away happy. Don’t mess around.

Question #2: Playing armchair GM, if you stay at the 8th-overall pick, who would you draft if the following players had already been selected?

1) Jack Hughes
2) Kaapo Kakko
3) Alex Turcotte
4) Bowen Byram
5) Kirby Dach
6) Dylan Cozens
7) Cole Caufield

Max: In this scenario, Peyton Krebs is my guy. Krebs was on a weak Kootenay team but found success, nonetheless. He can run his own line and drive offense even without great teammates.

Keith: I think Trevor Zegras would make a lot of sense. He’s, in my opinion, the smartest player at the top of this class, on-and-off the ice. Really good kid – and when you couple that with all the gifts he has in the rink, it’s really a no-brainer. …See what I did there?

BLH: Krebs and Zegras would definitely be of great value to the Oilers going forth. They’d add an element of flash to the Oilers center depth and if I had to choose one or the other, I’d probably side with Max here and go with Krebs due to his work ethic and two-way game.

With that said, I’m a Matthew Boldy man. For my money, he’s the best all-around forward in the draft and the Oilers are really lacking in those. He can stir the drink from the wing and there aren’t many players in the game you can say do that. He can play across the board and in every situation. To add to that, he’s most likely physically ready to play pro right now and his vision, hands, and hockey IQ are right up there with the best in the draft. A season or two in the NCAA will develop him into an impact player upon his NHL debut.

 Question #3: Who do you think (realistically) will be on the board at #38? Who should the Oilers draft with that pick?

Max: A good option might be Patrik Puistola. Puistola is a popular pick for an under the radar, 2nd-round, option, who’s found a lot of success in the Mestis – the 2nd premiere adult league, in Finland. Puistola is a creative goal scorer who will make the jump to the Liiga, next season.

Keith: A guy that doesn’t get enough love is Maxim Cajkovic. The definition of a “journeyman,” he’s played pretty much all over the world, already, and when you look at how well he’s performed at every stop along the road, he’s the kind of guy that teams will trade for at the deadline to go on a ‘Cup run.

BLH: This will really depend on who the Oilers take at 8th overall. I reckon it’ll be a pretty offensive player, so… I really like John Beecher here. He’s one of the fastest players in the draft, he plays center, and he likes to get mucky. I don’t feel he’s quick like Hughes, but he’s fast like jersey flapping Mike Modano fast. He’s got a pro frame and at the end of the day, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up being 6’2″ and 210lbs. Just a beast on skates. The downside is he’s not all that offensively gifted, so the Oilers might be developing a defensive center/wing here in Beecher if they take him.

Question #4: Do you think Edmonton selects a goaltender in this draft? Why or why not?

Max: Edmonton has six picks in this draft and, with no NHL level netminder in their system, it might be worth spending at least one on a goalie. Spencer Knight might be out of the Oilers’ range, but there’s a deep class behind him who could be available in the 3rd-round.

Keith: It depends on who’s available and when. For me, there are three goaltenders in this draft that matter: Spencer Knight, Dustin Wolf, and Ilya Konovalov. If any of those guys are sitting there in the 3rd-or-4th rounds, I don’t care how good of prospects Stuart Skinner or Olivier Rodrigue are, I’m making the pick.

BLH: I’m not sure. With only six picks, I’d be hard-pressed to take one knowing there are four already in the system. I’d probably wait until next season or if I felt the urge to add another one, sign a free agent out of the NCAA or Europe.

Question #5: Another armchair GM scenario… You’re approached by the Avalanche to trade up to #4. It will cost you the: 8th, 85th, and 100th-overall picks. Do you make that trade, knowing the following players are off the board – and who would you select?

1) Jack Hughes
2) Kaapo Kakko
3) Bowen Byram

Max: Alex Turcotte is my 3rd-ranked prospect, in this draft, and I’d jump at the chance to take him. He’s by far the most complete player in the draft. When you combine his skating, creativity, scoring, intellect, and playmaking abilities, he’s easily the best option available after Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko.

Keith: I’d likely ask for additional draft pick in-return – 3-for-2 deal – but ultimately, no. I’m projecting the same ceiling for guys in the 3rd-to-12th-overall range. No need to move.

BLH: No, I wouldn’t. I do like Keith’s idea though. The M.O. in Edmonton is draft and develop and removing half of your picks to move up and get a player that might not be any better than the guy you take at 8th overall, doesn’t make sense to me. There should be enough players around 86th and 100th that interest me too. So, no. I wouldn’t do that trade.

Question #6: Who, in your opinion, is the most underrated player? The most overrated player?

Max: My pick for most underrated would be Domenick Fensore. He’s a 5’7” defenseman with high caliber offensive tools. A top-5 skater that defend both sides of the ice. My pick for most overrated would be Vasili Podkolzin. He failed to produce in Russia’s lower leagues while other less-known prospects thrived. A top-10 or even top-15 pick should be owning the MHL.

Keith: If we’re speaking in terms of the entire draft class, then Simon Holmstrom would be my most underrated. Really skilled winger. Good playmaking IQ, and did a lot down the stretch that showed a return to his dominant form. The most overrated would be Arthur Kaliyev. The kid can score like nobody’s business. It’s a beautiful shot, and it’s really something fun to watch. But that’s it. I see no compete. I see no hustle. For a kid who’s 6’2” – 190, I see no checking. It’s incredibly frustrating. Do I think he’s a first-round talent? Absolutely. But a late first-rounder. Anyone telling you he’s a top-10 pick lives in a padded cell.

BLH: My most underrated player might be Anttoni Honka. This guy has got some real talent but has disappeared off of scouts’ radars due to a really tough season he’s had. At the beginning of the year, I had him as the 3rd best prospect in the draft. Honka reminds me of Sergei Gonchar so much in his ability to stay cool under pressure. His offensive game is really good and he can thread a needle as well as any other prospect in this draft I feel. Some people might say he looks lazy on the ice, but I just find he’s just so collected it appears that he doesn’t care. I think that some scouts are scared off of him due to his brother Julius’ inability to develop into the player he was expected to. Some team is going to get a good player later on in the draft here, book it.

The other guy who’s being underrated is Vasili Podkolzin. He might not be putting up very much on the scoresheet, but make no bones about it, the Russian Hockey Federation doesn’t push its young players to play at higher levels often and Podkolzin is getting just that from them. He’s special. You try traveling as much as this guy has over the season and still maintain a high degree of production. You’ll see, once he’s settled in one spot for a year, he’ll start to tear things up.

Question #7: Final question… We’ll do one last armchair GM scenario. What kind of deal would you be asking for in return for Jesse Puljujarvi?

Max: The ask would probably be a high pick in his draft and an NHL-ready prospect. You’re taking a chance that he just needed a change of scenery and could look like a real fool if he ends up overperforming.

Keith: Realistically, a 1-1-and-1 – as in: a player, a prospect, and a pick. But, I think the trade market has soured a bit on JP. While there are teams that likely have interest, they probably also have that lingering concern of “is he another Yakupov?” So, a 1-for-2 would be nice, and realistic. Let’s say, for example, if they made a deal with the Los Angeles Kings, it might look like: Jesse Puljujarvi for Alec Martinez or Tyler Toffoli + 64th-overall pick.

BLH: My feeling is that he’s right on the cusp of breaking out. The double hip surgery might slow down the beginning of his season, but I’d be willing to bet that he’ll be producing in the 2nd half and teams are cognizant of that. They’re aware of how young he still is and how the Oilers management, coaching, and playing staff have treated him, and they’ll try to fleece Ken Holland, but I can’t see him falling for it.

There are two trade scenarios for me,

  1. The “futures” ask, meaning picks/prospects.
  2. The “help now” ask, meaning an NHL player.

So for scenario “A”, I’m asking looking for the kind of prospect that will even out the scales in the case that Puljujarvi does turn things around. I’m not sure if we’re talking about an Eeli Tolvanen here, a Drake Batherson/Filip Chlapik, or possibly a bigger deal that would bring a Nolan Patrick to Edmonton. Roslovic out of Winnipeg is an interesting option as well. But something in that range. Gotta play hardball in a deal like this.

In scenario “B”, I’d look at oft-maligned players. Maybe guys who are on the outs with their current organization. Nikita Zadorov, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Jason Zucker are names that come to mind immediately. There are also teams that need to shed salary badly, so what about a Tyler Johnson or Nazem Kadri trade?

Be sure to follow both Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@keithfries) on Twitter and tune into the NHL Entry Draft, this weekend, and have a cold one on us. Or… 8 cold ones. Cheers!

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TPE Hockey’s Ultimate Top 50 List of Undrafted NHL Prospects

This year the Hughes vs Kakko debate has raged over who will and should go 1st. As Hughes sets records for USA National Team Development Program (USNTDP), Kakko is also setting records in the Finnish Liiga. Both seem like historic prospects but they may pale in comparison to the NHL draft prospects that are coming up after them.

Already, the hype has surrounded the projected number one pick in the 2020 draft, Alexis Lafreniére. This while the rest of the 2020 draft is loaded with high-end players that could be considered 1st overall quality players. Quinton Byfield, Noel Gunler, and Anton Lundell plus others have received a lot of hype in scouting circles. Despite this Alexis Lafreniére still ranks 6th on my list of the top 50 draft eligible prospects. So who are these young star athletes and when will we get to see them in the NHL?

In this list, I’ll combine my draft rankings from 2019, 2020, and 2021, but I’ll also add 5 world class prospects from the 2022 and 2023 drafts. I don’t have extensive rankings for the 2022 or 23 drafts so other than those 5 there won’t be any other prospects from those drafts on the list. Also, no goalies will be included in the top 50.

We begin this list with “The Big Five.” These 5 prospects are players we previously only saw once in a decade, but this time we are seeing 5 in only two drafts, 2022 and 2023. We haven’t seen players this good at their age since Connor McDavid tore up the GTHL, the top youth league in Ontario, in 2012.

Number One
Matthew Savoie
Center | 2022 Draft | Jan 1, 2004 | St. Albert, AB, Canada
NAX – CSSHL

He loves to cut down the wing with speed and use his edges and strength to cut to the net and create a scoring chance. Matthew Savoie also holds a great shot in his arsenal. He can rip pucks where ever he wants and catches goalies off guard with a quick release. His shot has even been compared to that of Steven Stamkos. On the power play, he can often snipe a goalie from the blue line or the tops of the circles. Savoie has been a stellar playmaker as well. He can thread passes to and through the slot to give his winger a one-timer. He can often do this due to his off the charts hockey IQ and eye for the ice. He’s by far the best passer in his league and can set up a multitude of opportunities at any given moment. All this not to mention his elite puck skills and hands. His immense toolset of skills plus his top-end processor make him the top prospect in all of hockey right now.

Number Two
Shane Wright
Center | 2022 Draft | Jan 4, 2004 | Burlington, ON, Canada
Kingston Frontenacs – OHL

While Savoie was denied Exceptional Status, Shane Wright was not. He will play in the OHL at just 15 next season for the Kingston Frontenacs as they drafted him 1st overall at the 2019 OHL Draft. Wright was undisputedly the best player in Ontario minor midget hockey (2003 born players) as a 2004 born this past season. He scored a ridiculous 150 points in just 72 GTHL games. For perspective that’s a 2.08 PPG total while McDavid had a 2.38 and Tavares a 2.15 in the same league at the same age. He was the centerpiece of a super team in the Don Mills Flyers that have lost one singular game all season and went unbeaten in league play. But don’t think that his team being so good is why is point totals are so good. It isn’t. Wright is the clear driver of offense in Don Mills, nobody stands close to him. In the OHL Cup, a tournament between the best minor midget teams in the OHL’s territory, Wright led his team to victory and a huge comeback from a 4-1 deficit in the finals. He scored 8 goals and 18 points in his 7 games. Coming away with not only the championship but tournament MVP as a 2004 born. What makes Shane Wright so great is hard to put a finger on. He’s one of the best playmakers I’ve ever seen at 15 with only Savoie on his level. His passes are perfect and he reads the play so well. He can use his strength and skating skill to take the puck to a dangerous area and create a shooting and passing option. While he’s a pass-first player he has a very accurate shot with good power behind it too. Often on the rush, he can skate the puck in and dangle defensemen to get to the net and snipe the goaltender the second he spots netting. There’s nothing Wright can’t do. He an extremely complete player. In the past, Wright has said that he models his game off of Matt Barzal.

Number Three
Brad Lambert
Left Wing | 2022 Draft | Dec 19, 2003 | Lahti, Finland
Lahti Pelicans – Jr A. SM-Liiga

https://youtu.be/NqGvXqhv99Q

There is a STRONG argument to be made that Brad Lambert could be the #1 player on this list. He may be an ’03, but he’s less than a month older than both Savoie and Wright. Already Lambert has played junior hockey in Finland’s U20 league. As an ’03 he would’ve required Exceptional Status to do that in Canada. (European junior systems don’t have Exceptional Status, if you’re good enough you can just get called up from your U18 team). As a December birthday he was doing this at a ridiculously young age. He scored an impressive 11 points in just 17 games as a 15 year old. Lambert is a well rounded player with both goal scoring and playmaking upside. In the U20 league he wasn’t the goal scoring dynamo he was at lower levels, but his playmaking skill was on full display. He’s got a nasty wrist shot and good vision with the puck. He’s very mobile and moves very well with the puck on his stick. Lambert has a breakaway speed, going from a glide to full speed before you know what happened. Size isn’t a problem for him either as at just 15 he’s already pushing 6’0”. Lambert also has some crazy hands as many saw in his viral shootout clip.

Number Four
Connor Bedard
Wing/Center | 2023 Draft | July 17, 2005 | N. Vancouver, BC, Ontario
West Van Warriors – CSSHL

At just 13, the Canadian media has already created a storm of hype around 2005 born Connor Bedard, and rightfully so. Bedard played a year up with the 2004 crop of Western Canadian players in the CSSBHL, but not only did he play, but he also won the MVP. Bedard scored over 2 goals per game and almost 3 points per game. Often Bedard went on streaks of not goals, but hat tricks. If you compare his season to Savoie’s in the same league, at a similar age (only a few months off), Savoie did have a higher point per game total, but Bedard’s goal-scoring prowess is unmatched. Next year it is assumed that he will be in the CSSHL against 18-year-olds. So what makes Bedard such a great goal scorer? Connor Bedard has what must be the best shot of any 13-year-old ever. It’s accurate, hard, fast, has a quick release, and he knows where to put it. Bedard is great at identifying what a goaltender is giving up and picking him apart for it. His shot drops jaw regularly. His other qualities are very intriguing, skating, hands, smarts, but nothing compares to the ridiculous shot of his.

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Number Five
Adam Fantilli
Wing | 2023 Draft | Dec 10, 2004 | Ontario, Canada
17-18 Team: Toronto Red Wings – GTHL | 18-19 Team: Toronto Jr. Canadiens – GTHL

Adam Fantilli spent this season putting himself on the map. As an underager in the GTHL, similarly to Shane Wright, Fantilli showed that Wright had a challenger. While there is no debate that Wright is clearly the better player Fantilli isn’t too far behind and is 11 months younger than Wright. At just 14 and 15, 11 months makes a huge difference. At the OHL Cup, Fantilli wowed crowds as he helped lead his team to the finals. Fantilli did not apply for Exceptional Status, but it’s now clear he is far and away the top prospect for the 2020 OHL Draft. Although rumors have swirled about where he will play. Fantilli said himself his dream is to play in the NCAA and go on to the NHL. At 14 Fantilli already stands out as a superb athlete. The 6’2” power forward is an explosive skater. With his skating, he creates separation from any defenders as he hits his top speed before the defenders can get their first few strides in. His quick feet make him impossible to catch, and his edges allow him to weave through defenders. He also frequently capitalizes on odd-man rushes as not only can he create them with speed, but he can catch up with his teammates on a breakaway and turn a 1 on 1 into a 2 on 1.

Fantilli also uses a big shot to beat goaltenders. He’s great at sending a howitzer at full speed catching goalies off guard. He’s also an exceptionally smart player who knows where and when to shoot the puck. He’s got a lot of skill too allowing him to work his way to dangerous areas with his puck skills. Adam Fantilli is a player that overwhelms opposing teams with his sheer power. Whether it’s his shot or speed it’s impossible to stop him.

6) Alexis Lafreniére
LW | 2020 Draft |Oct 11, 2001 |Saint-Eustache, QC, CAN
Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL)

Everybody knows who Alexis Lafreniére is. He was drafted 1st overall in the QMJHL Draft and lead all QMJHL rookies in scoring in the 17-18 season, ahead of Filip Zadina. Lafrenière then went on to compete at the U18s as a 16-year-old where he stood out as one of Canada’s best players. At the conclusion of the season, he won CHL Rookie of the Year over the 2018 2nd overall pick Andrei Svechnikov. This was as a 2020 draft eligible compared to the #2 pick in the 2018 draft. This season Lafreniére hasn’t disappointed at all and has only increased the hype around himself. He finished top 3 in QMJHL scoring 105 points in just 61 games this season. This was good enough to outpace Connor McDavid’s draft minus one season (Lafreniére was 3 months older). And while Lafreniére is not McDavid he is by far the best player to come through the CHL since. What makes Lafreniére such a special player is undoubtedly his mind for the game. It’s possible that at this stage in his career he has never played a game where he wasn’t the smartest player on the ice. He not only makes the right decisions, but he makes them quickly. Lafreniére has an elite processor and somehow even better vision of the ice. His smarts and IQ is nothing less than world class. On top of his smart play, Lafreniére is exceptionally skilled. Unreal hands, and confidence in his ability to dangle defenders. He’s also a good shooter with a nice wrister with a real quick release. Lastly, his skating ability, while not world class, is very good. Smooth, quick feet with a good top speed.

7) Jack Hughes
C |2019 Draft |May 14, 2001 | Orlando, FL, USA
USNTDP (USHL)

Jack Hughes has had plenty of attention already so I’ll keep it fairly short. Hughes has spent the entirety of his career dominating at every single level. He put himself on the map with the Toronto Marlboros in the GTHL. While he applied for Exceptional Status he was denied and headed off to the NTDP. Hughes then went on to set the NTDP all-time points record and has become arguably the best player in program history. Over the course of this season, Hughes has remained at above 2.00 PPG in the USHL. He’s been the best player in all of junior hockey if you ask me. Internationally Hughes has put on a show. At one tournament he managed to put up 16 points in only 4 games, that a 4.00 PPG. Jack Hughes is a can’t miss player. He’s one of the most skilled players we’ve seen come through the draft. To consider him an elite skater is a vast understatement. He can get up and down the ice faster than anybody he’s ever played against. And to combine this with his unmatched edge work makes him the best skater since McDavid. Hughes also has hands and a processor as quick as his feet. His puck skills are stellar and he thinks the game at the highest pace.

8) Quinton Byfield
C |2020 Draft |August 19, 2002 | Newmarket, ON, Canada
Sudbury Wolves (OHL)

Quinton Byfield has been high on NHL radars since he played youth hockey for the York Simcoe Express. He scored at almost 3 PPG for the Express and got picked 1st overall by Sudbury in the OHL draft. Byfield then became one of the team’s biggest offensive drivers as a 16-year-old for a solid Sudbury team and won OHL Rookie of the Year. He scored at almost a point per game and led the team to the playoffs. Despite being knocked out in the 2nd round Byfield was phenomenal. He played a huge role in their 1st round sweep of Mississauga. He had 7 points in those 4 games before Sudbury was swept by the juggernaut Ottawa 67s team. Byfield is a big, tall power forward with amazing speed and skill. His height and weight make him one of the most physically imposing players we’ve seen at his age. He’s a 6’3” 214lbs monster who’s physically ready for pro hockey at just 16. Despite his size, Byfield is a fantastic skater and very skilled player. He’s got a superb top speed and is very agile. I’ve never seen a player at his age and size be able to move as Byfield can. In other words, he’s an athletic freak.

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9) Kaapo Kakko
C/RW |2019 Draft |February 13, 2001 | Turku, Finland
TPS Turku (Liiga)

Kaapo Kakko has been making waves in the Finnish elite league. Kakko holds the all-time lead in U18 goal scoring. This while he is also in the top 5 for assists and points. Kakko also is tied for 1st in U18 playoffs points per game with Mikael Granlund and leads in playoffs goals per game. He’s been nothing short of phenomenal at the pro level. This earned him a roster spot on Finland’s men’s team. Even at the men’s international level, he’s played phenomenally. Kakko has controlled play and fit in with Team Finland. In terms of play style, Kaapo Kakko is an all-around offensive threat that doesn’t lack any major offensive attributes. He can do it all in the opposing zone and makes his presence know the second he steps on the ice. Kakko adapts well to any style he needs to play. He can play fast pace, smart hockey or play a little more gritty. Kakko has thrived at every level and doesn’t back down to a challenge. His size, smarts, and speed will translate well to the NHL game, and he will step in right away.

10) Noel Gunler
W |2020 Draft |October 7, 2001 | Luleå, Sweden
Luleå HF (SHL)

https://twitter.com/jokkenevalainen/status/1094241240806240257?s=21

Despite being a late birthday, Noel Gunler has had one of the most impressive draft minus 1 years from a prospect in a while. After dominating the SuperElit (Swedish U20) with the highest PPG in the league. He then moved on to the SHL and wowed at the pro level. Some Swedish scouts have said they haven’t been as impressed by a player his age since Elias Pettersson and William Nylander. Gunler has functioned as an all offense sniping forward this season. Some Swedish scouts have said he has the best shot of a 17-year-old they’ve seen, and I’d compare his shot closest to that of Auston Matthews. He’s great at changing the angle of his shot and tricking goaltenders. It also has a shocking release. Overall, Gunler’s shot is absolutely lethal. Although Gunler doesn’t score off shooting ability alone. He’s an exceptionally smart player. He’s great at putting himself in an area to collect rebounds or receive a pass in an open area. In addition to his scoring ability, he’s shown he can drive play at any level with his playmaking skill.

11) Anton Lundell
C |2020 Draft |October 3, 2001 | Espoo, Finland
HIFK (Liiga)

https://twitter.com/jokkenevalainen/status/1066031834704867329?s=21

Anton Lundell is simply a fantastic player. He was key in Finland’s World Junior win in his draft minus 1 year. Despite his age, he was arguably Finland’s best center. He played this season in the Finnish Liiga and was unbelievable, scoring 19 points in 38 games. It’s entirely possible, even likely, that he outdoes Kakko in terms of Liiga production next year (although he would be older). Lundell is an extremely cerebral, two-way centerman that NHL team would die for. He’s not flashy, but he makes the right play. Lundell also sees the ice very well and has a terrific shot.

12) Lucas Raymond
W |2020 Draft |March 28, 2002 | Göteborg, Sweden
Frölunda (SHL)

The Swedish hype train has surrounded Lucas Raymond as he’s lit up Swedish and international hockey. Raymond was one of the better players in the SuperElit and earned a temporary spot on Frölunda’s SHL team. He was the first 2002 born player to play in the SHL. Raymond showcased his absolute howitzer of a shot. Like Gunler, Raymond can really shoot the puck and has no problem putting the puck past even a pro goalie. He’s also a phenomenal passer and better at setting up teammates in dangerous areas than anyone.

13) Aatu Räty
C |2021 Draft |November 14, 2002 | Oulunsalo, Finland
Kärpät (Jr. A SM-Liiga)

The 1st prospect from the 2021 draft finally comes off the board. The 2021 draft doesn’t have a real first overall quality player like Hughes or Lafreniére, but rather it’s an extremely deep draft. You’ll see a lot of 2021 names on this list. Räty himself has had himself a season. He started at the U18 level in Finland, but absolutely annihilated the competition. He moved onto the U20 level and performed very well. He compares similarly to Anton Lundell in terms of production. Räty is another big shooter out of Scandinavia and has some mad hands too. He’s a versatile player that can get the job done in any role, and do any job a team needs him too.

14) Alexander Holtz
W |2020 Draft |January 23, 2002 | Saltsjö-Boo, Sweden
Djurgårdens (SHL)

Alex Holtz is the 2nd part of the Swedish duo of him and Raymond. Holtz, like Raymond, got his share of time in the SHL as a 16-year-old. He had a similarly dominant SuperElit season to Raymond as well. Holtz captained the Swedish U17 team and lead them to a bronze medal. Holtz, like Gunler, Raymond, and Räty, is another big shot goal scorer. Holtz probably has the hardest shot of the group too. He is the definition of a goal scorer. There is not a moment when Holtz is on the ice and isn’t dangerous.

15) Brandt Clarke
D |2021 Draft |February 09, 20013 | Nepean, ON, Canada
Barrie Colts (OHL)

Brandt Clarke is one of the best 15-year-old defensemen since Rasmus Dahlin. From the blueline, he scored 113 points in 73 games on the Don Mills Flyers. Clarke was integral in their OHL Cup victory, and there were times where Clarke was the best player on the Flyers over Wright. Wright is obviously a year older, but still. Clarke is one of the craftiest defensemen I’ve seen. He plays very similarly to Quinn Hughes, but I would say better. He’s quite good defensively and better physically than Hughes. He’s also got a laser of a shot. Clarke is also extremely deceptive and smart in the offensive zone. Other Names to Note:

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Four More Players of Note

17) Dylan Guenther W, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL), 2021 Draft

The 1st overall pick in the WHL Draft is looking like he could be quite the player for the Oil Kings. In his short stint in the WHL as an underager (many top WHL prospects play at 15 for a few games since their draft us a year early) he impressed going half a point per game including a few nice goals. Guenther is a phenomenal goal scorer with all the right instincts to be a threat at the NHL level. Masterful powerplay guy.

18) Joshua Roy C, Saint Johns Sea Dog (probably) (QMJHL), 2021 Draft

Roy is the likely 1st pick in this year’s QMJHL Draft in which Saint John has the pick. He dominated in the Quebec Midget league this year with Levis. He led them to a historic season going 41-1. Roy put up similar totals to that of Alexis Lafreniére, although he was a few months older. Joshua Roy is a versatile and skilled forward that is a scary player to defend. His hands are as silky as they get and his shot is an absolute laser.

24) Chaz Lucius C/W, USNTDP (USHL), 2021 Draft

The US Development Program is expecting to have their next star forward in Chaz Lucius. Lucius was just 13 when he committed to the University of Minnesota along with his younger brother Cruz. Chaz put up a ridiculous 63 points in 13 games with Gentry Academy this season including 39 goals. Chaz is a high tempo skilled forward with big goal scoring upside. He’s known for destroying defenders with some nasty moves and whipping a shot past the goalie without a problem. Expect Chaz to light up the USHL next season with the U17s and probably play quite a bit with the U18s.

50) Luke Hughes D, USNTDP (USHL), 2021 Draft

The 3rd of the Hughes gang, Luke is expected to be a key player for next year’s NTDP team. He led the Little Caesars 15s (yes that’s their name) to a national championship including a goal in the finals. Luke is already the biggest of the Hughes brother at 5’11”. He’s almost exactly the same player as Quinn in terms of style. A skills coach for the family said it’s possible that Luke is the best skater of them all, and I’d consider him to be better defensively than Quinn. At this point, Luke isn’t as highly touted as Quinn or Jack, but he still has the potential to rise.

Follow Max on Twitter @TPEHockey

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Edmonton Oilers: New GM/Head Coach Rumors + 2019 NHL Draft Q&A w/Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith Fries (@KeithFries)

Yesterday, during the intermission of the Blues/Jets game, uber-insider Elliotte Friedman said that Mark Hunter had completed his 2nd interview for the General Manager’s position.

Just before we get into this, I need to comment on the playoffs.

I’m not one that cheers for teams because they’re in Canada. I cheer for the Oilers and when they’re not playing in the post-season, I cheer for whatever team I find most entertaining. I’m pretty sure I cheer against the Canadian teams because I think that the “Cup has to come back to Canada” narrative is daft.

So I was happy to see Calgary lose, I was hoping St. Louis would win because I love Pat Maroon, and I’ll be putting my Bruins hat on later today and going for Boston to beat Toronto.

The Stanley Cup only deserves to be in one place in Canada and that’s Edmonton 🙂

Back to the GM talk now…

With the news that Pat Verbeek and Mike Gillis, in addition to Hunter, have been interviewed bodes well for the Oilers. The organization is actually going about this in the right manner.

Looks like Ken Holland is out of the picture and we’re still waiting on news of any other candidates (Ron Hextall, Bill Guerin, and Mike Futa for example) getting an interview. Oh, and don’t forget, Kelly McCrimmon is still a name lingering about.

My feeling is that Seattle is probably McCrimmon’s destination given his experience getting Vegas off the ground and the May 1st “soft” deadline that Darren Dreger said the Oilers have set in place. Unless the wheels fall off for Vegas, I’m not sure he’ll be made available to interview before the first of next month.

Having it all wrapped up by the first of May would give the new management team time to get briefed on the draft, free agents, ongoing trade negotiations, etc. I like that they’ve set this line in the sand.

Funny, Eklund had an E5 out today! Mark Hunter will be the Oilers new GM and his coach will be DJ Smith.

I contacted a source directly connected to the team about this and the answer was a very direct, “NO!”

I think it’s natural to connect the GM to a coach he’s worked with in the past though. Hunter/Smith, McCrimmon/Rocky Thompson, Verbeek/Benoit Groulx, Gillis/Vigneault (before being hired by Philly)…

According to Sportsnet, Smith is being groomed to be an NHL head coach and his mentor is none other than Mike Babcock.

Buffalo Sabres blog, Die by the Blade, did a little profile on Smith here if you’re curious as to why his name is being brought up.

I’m still awaiting answers from two more sources on the topic mind you, so we’ll see where that goes. I do believe Jeff Marek and Friedman were pontificating on Edmonton bringing in that exact combo in their most recent podcast though.

Some folks are of the belief that Hunter is a very good player evaluator. Someone who can project a player’s potential quite well. I would question that at the NHL level because I don’t feel he did an extraordinary job at the draft the three years he was with Toronto.

In that trifecta of seasons, the Maple Leafs had 28 draft picks and the number of players they might’ve hit on I can count on one hand.

Anyone with Bob McKenzie’s list of draft rankings should be able to get an NHL player in the top half of the first round. It’s all the rest of it that’s tricky, and my opinion on Mark Hunter is simply that I have no idea if he’s any good or not, but that’s a very large number of draft picks playing in the AHL out of the 2015 draft. On the other hand, the team was bad, had a good draft position and some extra picks. Oh, and scouting department that is so big the Ottawa Senators wouldn’t know what to do with it. And of course, to further complicate things, no one actually knows how much influence Hunter had on that draft. (source)

Whatever the final outcome is, Bob’s on it.

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A 2019 NHL DRAFT Q&A

We decided to do a little pre-draft Q&A with a couple of bright minds who cover NHL draft prospects, Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@KeithFries), to give you a bit of clearer idea on this year’s draft class.

By now, you should be familiar with Max’s work. He’s been doing some very interesting and informative prospect profiles for us this season, but Mr. Fries will be new to you.

I met Keith whilst reaching out to various scouts at numerous levels on Linkedin and the amount of time he afforded to me as I asked him question after question on this year’s class was beyond what I’d expected. So I asked him if he wanted a place to publish his work, and he accepted.

At the end, there’s a little gift from Keith to the hockey world that I think you’ll really dig.

Let’s get into this Q&A because she’s a bit of a long one. I asked some tough questions, or at least questions I thought were tough and there are some that are Oilers-centric for us Oilers fans.

What does your top-10 look like for this year’s draft?  

Max (@TPEHockey): 1. Jack Hughes 2. Kaapo Kakko 3. Alex Turcotte 4. Dylan Cozens 5. Trevor Zegras 6. Bowen Byram 7. Peyton Krebs 8. Kirby Dach 9. Alex Newhook 10. Cole Caufield 

Keith (@keithfries): 1. Jack Hughes 2. Kaapo Kakko 3. Vasili Podkolzin 4. Kirby Dach 5. Dylan Cozens 6. Matthew Boldy 7. Peyton Krebs 8. Bowen Byram 9. Trevor Zegras 10. Cole Caufield 

Can you give me your top-15 mock draft? Who might jump into the top-10 that we aren’t expecting to (i.e. Barrett Hayton)? 

Max (@TPEHockey): 1. NJD – Jack Hughes 2. NYR – Kaapo Kakko 3. CHI – Alex Turcotte 4. COL – Bowen Byram 5. LAK – Vasili Podkolzin 6. DET – Trevor Zegras 7. BUF – Dylan Cozens 8. EDM – Peyton Krebs 9. ANA – Kirby Dach 10. VAN – Cole Caufield 11. PHI – Matthew Boldy 12. MIN – Victor Soderstrom 13. FLA – Arthur Kaliyev 14. ARI – Alex Newhook 15. MTL – Bobby Brink  

Like how Hayton went 5th-overall since centers were rare in that draft, a defenseman could do just that. If so, look for Victor Soderstrom to go higher, possibly in the top-10. Thomas Harley could also make some big strides.  

Keith (@keithfries): 1. NJD – Jack Hughes 2. NYR – Kaapo Kakko 3. CHI – Vasili Podkolzin 4. COL – Bowen Byram 5. LAK – Kirby Dach 6. DET – Dylan Cozens 7. BUF – Matthew Boldy 8. EDM – Peyton Krebs 9. ANA – Trevor Zegras 10. VAN – Cole Caufield 11. PHI – Alex Turcotte 12. MIN – Cam York 13. FLA – Moritz Seider 14. ARI – Victor Soderstrom 15. MTL – Nick Suzuki 

I can’t see anyone making a giant leap up the draft boards, this year. However, I think some of the guys already seen as top-10 prospects could wiggle into the top-5 – like Caufield, Boldy, or Cozens. 

Who do you think has the potential to fall in the draft (i.e. Joe Veleno)? 

Max (@TPEHockey): I don’t see a Veleno-like drop from anyone, this season, but Kirby Dach could end up falling. He has flashed some insane talent, and at points looked like easily the 3rd-overall prospect. But, he’s also been wildly inconsistent. He at one point went on a 15+ game skid where he only managed to put up a few points. The inconsistency could contribute to a big fall, but I don’t see him dropping past 15th-overall. 

Keith (@keithfries): Based solely on the recent news that he’ll be staying in Russia for two more seasons, it’s entirely possible that Vasili Podkolzin drops to the 11-15th-overall bracket. That’s not indicative of his play, mind you. And for how much shuffling and moving up there was for playoff bubble teams, in this year’s lottery, I can’t see Podkolzin’s stock dropping that dramatically. Maybe more the equivalent of a Filip Zadina-esque fall than Veleno’s. 

After Hughes and Kakko, who is the best player available? 

Max (@TPEHockey): It’s gotta be Turcotte. His stock plummeted after he missed most of the season with injury, but as he came back people realized the massive mistake they made. He’s a stellar skater and playmaker, but also phenomenal defensively. He takes the puck to dangerous areas with his skating abilities and makes perfect passes to create opportunities. So far at the U18s, he’s been great on the PK. His defensive play is probably the best of the top-forward prospects, maybe second to Dach. 

Keith (@keithfries): When it comes down to taking the best player available, it’s really hard to look past all of Podkolzin’s offensive gifts. 

The Edmonton Oilers will have the opportunity to take a pretty talented forward at #8 overall. If you were the GM of that team, who would you take and why? 

Max (@TPEHockey): If he’s available I’d definitely go with Peyton Krebs. We’ve seen Leon Draisaitl lacking support from the wing, but in a few years, Krebs could fill that role. 

Keith (@keithfries): I’ll piggy-back on Max’s answer and say Krebs, as well. He finds ways to make it on the score sheet with little help around him, and that sounds like a Godsend to the nightly hot-and-cold Oilers. 

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Based on the previous question, I’d like to know how you’d approach their 2nd–round pick, as well. 

Max (@TPEHockey): The Oilers need a goalie. Shane Starrett has had quite the season in the AHL, but I don’t see him being a starter for Edmonton. With that 2nd–rounder, I’d take a long look at Ilya Konovalov. He’s an overager in the KHL who has been very good for Lokomotiv. His stats are similar to those of Igor Shestyorkin and Ilya Sorokin, but he’s two years younger. He might only be a year or two out from getting some NHL playing time. 

Keith (@keithfries): If there’s one knock against the Oilers it’s their lack of defensive depth and spark out of the back end. I’m projecting forwards to be the flavor of the first round, so a defender with some upside, like an Anttoni Honka or Tobias Bjornfot, might be the way to go.  

Would you trade the Oilers’ first-rounder for help in other areas? If so, what would that deal look like? 

Max (@TPEHockey): I would not trade a 1st–rounder, this year. Passing on a top-prospect like Krebs for immediate help could look really bad in a few years. In general, I’m against trading away high 1st-round picks. 

Keith (@keithfries): A top-10 pick in this draft would be the equivalent of a top-5 in recent classes. So moving out that pick has to net a viable return. At this point as an organization, they’re nowhere near a playoff push, so I don’t see how a trade helps them. Build for the future and make the pick. 

Is this a good year to draft a goaltender if you’re the Oilers? If so, who would you take, where would you take him, and why?  

Max (@TPEHockey): 8th is definitely too high to go after the highly-touted Spencer Knight, and while the 2nd-rounder is a little high for Konovalov, it’s still a good pick in my opinion. What he’s been doing in the KHL would be made a bigger deal of if he was a prospect for a high profile team. 

Keith (@keithfries): There are only a handful of goaltenders that I can see have starting potential, so if they’re off the board, I’d imagine Edmonton sticking with what they have in their system, already.  

When you’re scouting players, what are the most important attributes you look for in a: forward, defenseman, and goalie? What are things that you might consider red flags? 

Max (@TPEHockey): In both a forward and defenseman, the first thing I look for are basic attributes in a player. Usually, that means skating, passing, shot, etc.

For forwards, I look for how a player drives the play. Are they creating the offense or are they benefiting off linemates?

For defensemen, I usually look at how well they move the puck and see the ice in the offensive zone as well as how well they cover their guy, cover a zone, and cut off passing lanes.

One thing to look at is NHL Central Scouting’s player checklists. They’re available to the public and a good thing to look at when evaluating a player.

For goalies, there are a lot of things I look at. My priorities are mainly on puck tracking and technical ability. How well does a goalie follow the puck? How are their angles? Depth? Overall puck tracking is the one thing I want to see. This means seeing how well a goaltender can keep themselves square with the puck and in position to make a save. If a goalie is always square to a shooter it’s very hard to score nowadays. Goals today come from taking a goalie out of position. 

Keith (@keithfries): In a forward, I like to quickly identify their skill set. If they’re a playmaker, sniper, two-way, etc., and then see how their attributes best help the team. If you have a player who’s a sniper, and you keep lining him up at center but complain that there’s a lack of production from your wingers, then move him to the outside and put a playmaker down the middle. That’s not true of every line, just providing a quick example…

As for defensemen, I want to know for sure that they can be disciplined in the art of defense. It’s in their job description, after all. Backchecking, physical play, blocking shots, you name it.

As for netminders, it’s always about being the last line of defense in the trenches, so to speak. You need someone who stays calm and keeps you in the game on nights when there’s chaos and little to no production. 

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Can you give me a few players who might be hidden gems that could be snapped up in the later rounds of the draft?  

Max (@TPEHockey): Justin Bergeron. He’s an overager, but only missing the 2018 Entry Draft by a few hours. He’s been an integral defensive piece on Rouyn Noranda, who have been one of the best teams in the CHL. Other players I’d look for would be Cole MacKay, Xavier Simoneau, and Drew Helleson. 

Keith (@keithfries): There are a couple of USNTDP kids that could fly under the radar of the first few rounds, like Henry Thrun or Alex Vlasic. It’s also entirely possible that a guy like Nolan Foote, who has been a ghost on draft boards all season, could be an everyday NHLer. 

Which players do you feel have the ability to play in the NHL right away? 

Max (@TPEHockey): The only players I can say will play in the NHL are Hughes and Kakko. Cozens would be the next guy to look for. He’s got the size, speed, and power to survive in the NHL, but I think throwing him in would be rushing him. He’d benefit more from playing another year in juniors. 

Keith (@keithfries): Agree with Max that I can only really see Hughes and Kakko being promoted to the NHL, next year. A few players who are already physically mature – Boldy, Dach, and Cozens – all may get a 10-game contract at some point, though. 

What are your thoughts on projection metrics like NHLe? 

Max (@TPEHockey): While interesting, you have to take them with a grain of salt. Some leagues I’ve found feel undervalued, mainly the NCAA. They’re fun to look at and good for people that want to get a quick look at who the top guys are, but they don’t tell the full story. 

Keith (@keithfries): They’re bulls**t. 

That was a lot of fun to do and I thank them both for taking the time to help out. I hope we can do some more as the draft draws closer. Make sure you give Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@KeithFries) a follow as they are quite keen on hockey prospects and know their shite.

GIFT: Keith’s has released a 2019 NHL draft journal that you can download here.

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