Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors

#NHL22 Edmonton Oilers Talk: Could We See Regression from Nurse, Draisaitl, Barrie, and More in 2021-22?

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Lowetide.ca

A SOBER TRIP TO REASONABLE
  • One of the interesting conversations that came out of yesterday’s post was what ‘reasonable’ might look like for a player like Raphael Lavoie. 
  •  Some fans immediately think “Alex DeBrincat” when looking at Lavoie’s numbers and I think of Brad Isbister and still others land in between.
  • I used Isbister (over Ethan Moreau) because his skill set is a little closer to Lavoie. Both are big men, love shooting the puck, scored some goals and were willing to go to the front of the net. I think this is a good way to look at comparables, in this case using NHLE for goals.
  • Right wing would be the clearest path, and honestly it isn’t impossible to project Lavoie for a cup of coffee in 2021-22. But nine or 10 goals? That’s a distant bell.

BLH’s Thoughts: Lavoie’s NHLe from his draft year according to LT was 16.1 and Brad Isbister’s was 15.5. 

I’ll continue saying what I’ve been saying and that is that I believe Alex Chiasson to be a good comparable to Lavoie. Both a big bodied wingers with sneaky mean streaks who have elite shots but skating is their weak point. Both players dominated their respective junior leagues in scoring in their draft years as well.

Chiasson’s NHLe in his draft year was 19.8 according to the one calculator that I found online. 

It wouldn’t shock me if it took Rafa Lavoie a few seasons to get his feet under him. He’s got a temperament about him that may not jive with some coaches and like I said, his skating, might slow down his journey to the NHL. 

That said, there’s massive potential in this player if he can sort out his shortcomings. He’s lucky to have a coach like Jay Woodcroft guiding him right now because I don’t think a hard-ass coach would be the right mentor at this point in Lavoie’s career. 

I like this player a lot, but I do hope the Oilers do him right by slow playing him. 

Oilersnation (Yaremchuk)

Bouncebacks and Step Backs
  • I would throw together a list of a few players who could be primed for bounce-back seasons while also mentioning a few players who could potentially take some steps backwards in 2021-22.
Yamamoto
  • He’s a young player and has shown that he’s capable of scoring at the NHL level before. Combining that with the fact that he should get plenty of opportunities in the Oiler’s top six this coming season and his work ethic, I like Yamamoto’s chances of bouncing back next season.

BLH’s Thoughts: I like Yamo’s chances of bouncing back IF he starts on the third line. It was clear that he lost confidence in the latter half of last season and Coach Tippett wasn’t comfortable putting Zack Kassian in the top-six until the playoffs when it was painfully obvious that Yamamoto was getting checked out of the game in the top-six. 

But I’m not convinced that Killer will have a rebound year in the sense that we’ll see the kind of production that he was putting up in his rookie season. Will he score more than eight goals? He’d better… Ken Holland has a history of moving on from young players who don’t produce in favor of veterans… 

Kassian
  • I’m not as sure we’ll see a bounceback season from Kassian. He only scored 2 goals in 27 games last season and for him to get back in the top six, he’ll have to take away a spot from either Yamamoto or Jesse Puljujarvi. I don’t think he’s a better fit than either of those two with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl.

BLH’s Thoughts: It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Kailer Yamamoto is moved down the lineup. Let’s keep that in mind because we know that Dave Tippet is open to that now. At this point, I wonder if he has to win that spot in the top-six back after the season he just had… 

I have a good feeling about Kass. The fans will be back and I reckon he’ll get more time in the top-six where he tends to play a bit harder. I feel like Leon and Nuge could use somebody with a bit more muscle alongside them too and we know that Zack can play alongside elite talent. 

The other thing is, if Kassian can produce, it might open up a window for the Oilers to make a trade… 

Smith
  • …the Oilers are banking on Smith having another magical season and it’s a pretty big risk in my opinion.
  • If his numbers end up somewhere in the middle of what they’ve been the last two years, then the Oilers will be in fine shape.

BLH’s Thoughts: I’m hesitant on Smith recreating last season’s stats too. They were pretty fantastic, weren’t they? But who knows how he’ll do behind a more experienced defense…

Health is the name of the game here with him. He really needs to stay as fit as possible because if he does and this team goes deep, his name will be spoken of in the same breath as Dominik Hasek, Dwayne Roloson, Johnny Bower, Jacques Plante, etc. as netminders who played very well into their 40s. 

Barrie
  • A step back is possible production-wise, but I’m actually going to say that it’s not exactly likely…
  • The concern with Barrie is that his defensive zone play will slip and since Adam Larsson isn’t around anymore…

BLH’s Thoughts: I’ve got zero concerns over Barrie’s production. He’ll be a 50-60pt defenseman next season barring injury. Producing points is what he does.

Yamo, Kass, and Smith are pretty low hanging fruit if you ask me though. Barrie? Fair go there. 

Now, is it not fair to speculate on Darnell Nurse’s season? Last year was a galactic step up in his game and I think that we could see a minor regression there production-wise as the rest of his game rounds out. 

Everything that I’ve seen on Duncan Keith since his acquisition by the Oilers has told me that he hasn’t had a good season in quite a while now. So would it also not be fair to have positive thoughts about him bouncing back in a new environment and being closer to his family?

Why wouldn’t it be wrong to think that Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl taking a step back or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins taking a step forward? What about Kyle Turris? That guy had an absolute nightmare of a year.

The Daily Goal Horn

On Zdeno Chara

  • The St. Louis Blues are still in the market to add a veteran defender to their lineup. In a report by Jeremy Rutherford, he notes that they had interest in adding the 6-9′ Chara.
    • “Told the Blues are not an option for future Hall of Fame Dman Zdeno Chara,” he tweeted. “His focus, if he plays, will be to stay in the East to remain close to his family.”

On Jack Eichel

  • One team many believed were suitors, primarily through media reports, may actually be in on the 24 year-old Eichel. Eric Stephens who covers the Ducks for the Athletic said this in a recent mailbag post:
    • “The Ducks, while not publicly talking about their interest in him, haven’t put the kibosh on the persistent rumors that they’re among the teams closely monitoring the situation between Eichel and Buffalo.”
  • It’s also possible that Buffalo would consider Anaheim’s 3rd overall pick in this past draft; center Mason McTavish. However; Buffalo would also want Jamie Drysdale and more to complete a deal.
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