Tag Archives: 2016 NHL Playoffs

Fancy Stats, NHL, Stanley Cup Playoffs, Walter Foddis

2016 NHL Stanley Cup Predictions

April 13, 2016 Walter Foddis 3 Comments

For the last 3 seasons, I’ve been putting together statistical power rankings of teams with a focus on tracking the Oilers’ progress, or lack thereof. Then at the end of the season, I have used these rankings to make Stanley Cup playoff predictions. The statistical model began by examining shot attempt (a.k.a. Corsi) differentials, but I have since revised the model to also include goal differentials. The analytics community refers to this model as Weighted Shots.

The basic idea is simple: Goals count more than shot attempts. In theory, Weighted Shots help account for shot quality on offense and for goaltender performance on defense. In the Weighted Shots model that I use, goals count for 5 points and shot attempts–which for the sake of simplicity I will refer to as shots–count for 1 point. Measuring Weighted Shots at even-strength (5v5) is the most important aspect. Perhaps surprising to many, but special teams (power-play & short-handed) count for little (about 20% of scoring), although I do apply the model to ranking special teams. In my mind, a huge difference in special teams between teams who have similar Weighted Shot differentials may help tip the scale. There are a few matches this playoffs in which special teams may play a factor.

Testing Weighted Shot Model over 9 Playoff Seasons

To figure out if my model is useful, I applied it to the last 9 playoff series (2006-2015). I used all regular season games (82) in arriving at my 5v5 and special teams ranking systems. I also included rankings for the last 25 games because some of claimed that these are useful in making predictions. I have not thoroughly tested this 25-game model, but I do know that last season it was horrible in making predictions. Perhaps when I have more time, I’ll revisit the 25-game model for the other 8 seasons. Important to note that my model does not account for injuries, especially to key players. For instance, Tampa Bay has 2 key players out: their 2nd best defenseman, Anton Stralman, and elite sniper, Steven Stamkos. I cannot help but think this will have a huge impact on their playoff performance, especially Stralman, whose shot-differential relative-to-team is +5.7 per hour, which is 2nd on the team (Hedman is first) and 23rd among NHL defensemen. In any case, without further delay, here is how my model performed over 9 playoff seasons.

As we can see, the accuracy rate varies a lot from season-to-season. A few times it is as high as 87% (13 out of 15) and other times as low as 53% (8 out of 15). The good news is that even 8 correct predictions is more than 50%. Even better, over the entire sample of 9 series, the accuracy rate is 70%.

What happened in those seasons in which only 8 predictions came true? In 2008, you can blame many failed predictions on upsets by the Montreal Canadiens and Pittsburgh Penguins, who were both riding high on hot goaltending, as well as for Pittsburgh, stellar offense by Sidney Crosby & Evgeni Malkin.

In 2011/12, goaltending was also a factor, but for different reasons. On the one hand, Henry Lundqvist carried the overachieving Rangers to the Eastern Conference finals. On the other hand, the Penguin’s–ranked 3rd–had Marc Andre Fleury losing his confidence and playing the worst hockey of his career. The Penguins lost to the Philadelphia Flyers in a memorable high-scoring and fight-filled first round series.

Then last season (2014/15), Lundquvist once again help carry the overachieving Rangers to the Conference Finals. Similarly, Carey Price helped the Montreal Canadiens upset the Ottawa Senators in the first round. Thus, despite the predictions, outstanding goaltending can change the outcome of a series. In the end, though, 14 out of the 18 Stanley Cup finalists ranked in the top-8. Moreover, the champions ranked in the top-4, except for Pittsburgh (ranked 15th) in 2009. Taking all this into account gives me enough confidence to keep using the model. In closely matched series, though, I think it’s important to pay attention to goaltending, as well as injuries and special teams. More on this below.

Next, I provide the overall rankings of the teams using 4 measures. As a reminder, the one I am using is the first green column (i.e., Weighted Shots using 82 regular season games). The other rankings are there as secondary predictions. As I mentioned above, I would like to test the model on the last 25 games of the season, so might as well include it below. For special teams, I took the difference between Power Play and Short-Handed Weighted Shots. This rank, I think, should only be used in a series in which the 5v5 numbers are very close. What is close? This season it’s easy. The Anaheim Ducks and Nashville Predators only have a WghSh% difference of 0.01%! Then in the 2nd round, assuming the St. Louis Blues and Dallas Stars beat their respective opponents, the difference is only 0.1%.

What is obvious is that, regardless of the ranking system, the top 2 teams are Los Angeles and Pittsburgh. Next, I’ll show my predictions and explain predictions that go against my model. Teams in green are the predicted winners of each series. The value in parentheses is the even-strength Weighted Shot differential.

My main upset is the Detroit Red Wing over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Although Tampa Bay is ranked 3rd overall, recall that they have injuries to two key players: Stralman and Stamkos. Although I believe the Lightning are a pretty good team even without those two, in a 7-game series, I do see Detroit as able to push passed them. I don’t expect it to be easy, though.

Another “upset” is the Anaheim Ducks over the Nashville Predators. Their respective WghSh% values are practically identical. Anaheim’s special teams, which are ranked 1st, are much stronger than Nashiville’s, which are ranked 14th. Thus, I give the advantage to the Ducks.

The final upset is St. Louis over Dallas (assuming they both make it to the 2nd round). Their respective WghSh% values are also nearly identical. Although the Stars’s special teams are slightly stronger–7th vs 11th–I don’t think this difference is that substantial. More importantly, I think goaltending and defense will be a factor. Dallas are double-teaming veterans Kari Lehtonen (90.6 save%; all situations) and Antti Niemi (90.5%). Neither has performed as a #1 goaltender. Also, despite Dallas’s strong offense–ranked 2nd–their defense is rather porous for a playoff team, ranking 17th. In contrast, St. Louis is solid both offensively and defensively, ranking 7th and 6th, respectively. Although there tends to be some variance in save% within a season, St. Louis’s save% (93.2%; rank=4th) exceeds that of Dallas’s (91.8%; rank=27th) by a large margin. I think there is more than variance going in this difference. With the Blues having the advantage in defense and goaltending, I favour St. Louis in this series.

Speaking of St. Louis, what of Chicago, the defending Stanley Cup champions? Unfortunately, their WghSh% rank is not even top-10. Last season, they were 2nd and favoured to win the Cup because Los Angeles (ranked 1st) failed to make the playoffs. Will intangibles such as “playoff experience” and “knowing how to win” matter? Maybe. But what the model shows, over 9 seasons of data, it that is sure helps when a team is better at out-shooting their opposition.

For the finals, I have seen a few models predict Pittsburgh over Los Angeles, which I don’t think is unreasonable. Pittsburgh has been the hottest team since January showing an improvement of 20th to 2nd in Weighted Shots over the last 40 games. I have not seen such an improvement within a season since I’ve been tracking these metrics. Plus, Pittsburgh is my 2nd favourite team. But then Pittsburgh without their #1 goaltender, Fleury, who is injured, but day-to-day, could make it a rough road for the Penguins to go deep into the playoffs.

There you go, folks! My predictions for the 2015/16 Stanley Cup playoffs. Please share your thoughts and predictions.

Walter

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BLH’s 2016 NHL Playoffs Predictions: Western Conference

April 11, 2016 Beer League Hero

Can the Kings win the Cup again and rival the Blackhawks for the best dynasty in recent memory?

Yesterday we went over the match-ups for the Eastern Conference. If you haven’t read the post please click this link and check it out! Today it’s time for the West!

The first round of the playoffs is always the best except in the Western Conference because every year we see one or two really good hockey teams lose. The East I find more times than not, the good teams move on or there’s a Cinderella team you can hop on board with.

But let’s move on and analyze the Western Conference series, starting with the Dallas Stars and the Minnesota Wild.

Western Conference

Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild (season series 4-0-1 for the Stars)

How much fun are the Dallas Stars to watch now? Playing that run and gun style in today’s NHL isn’t easy to do but they’re magical mix of offensive veterans, youthful grit and two-way dmen has proved to be a winning combination. Acquiring Patrick Sharp and Johnny Oduya was genius on Jim Nill’s part. Who could’ve seen the emergence of Erik Karlsson v2.0 John Klingberg? Even Former Oiler Ales Hemsky had a solid year and only missed 7 games!

It hasn’t been the best of years for the Minnesota Wild. A shite start and the eventual firing of Mike Yeo turned into quite the little run under new coach John Torchetti. Without that boost there’s a good possibility they would’ve been on the outside looking in this month. I’m not a Wild fan but from the looks of things they got a pretty balanced contribution scoring wise and stayed healthy for the most part. Charlie Coyle is starting to become the centre everyone pegged him to be and Matt Dumba is also developing in an upward trend.

This is going to be a joke of series. The Stars are going to sweep the Wild four straight UNLESS Minnesota can get major production from Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, and Devan Dubnyk. Another factor going in is the health and consistent play of Kari Lehtonen and/or Antti Niemi. If either or both of them faulter it could spell doom for the Stars high-octane offense. But I can’t see that going down. The Stars addition of Kris Russell for this playoff run to an already talented and fairly deep D corps. should sort out the Wild’s anemic offense. Lastly, Tyler Seguin…

Not-so-obvious players to look out for: Defenceman Jared Spurgeon for the Wild is one of the best puck movers in the league and worth keeping an eye on. Antoine Roussel is one of the most irritating players in the league but also one of the toughest. He could come to be one of the most valuable players for the Stars this post-season.

St.Louis Blues vs. Chicago Blackhawks (season series 3-2-0 for the Blues)

The Blues and the Hawks… How many times have we seen this series over the years? I don’t recall it ever being as good as it is now, at least not in my lifetime. And It’s surely a toss-up too given the injuries that the Blues are going through with goalie Jake Allen and Captain David Backes dinged up. That’s not to say the Hawks are all that healthy either. Artem Anisimov, Marian Hossa, and Andrew Shaw are taking care of their own injuries too.

The Blues can’t seem to get the playoff formula right but this year might be their lucky year. They’re bigger and their major players are healthy (apart from the aforementioned Backes and Allen). Schwartz, Steen, Brouwer, Stastny are all good to go. Tarasenko is a scoring machine. On the back-end they’ve got three of the best and worst names to try to spell without looking in Shattenkirk, Pietrangelo, and Bouwmeester. Even their young guns are good. Robbi Fabbri, Ty Rattie and Colton Parayko are sure to make their mark.

Chicago is Chicago. You can never count them out nor should you but I’m having a tough time this year. As good as they are I’m concerned that the amount of games they’ve played over the last 3 or 4 seasons will wear on them. The additions of Andrew Ladd, Christian Ehrhoff, and Dale Wiese will make a difference but I don’t believe as big a difference as they are hoping.

I’m going to take the Blues in 6 games. In what could be David Backes’ and Ken Hitchcock’s final season with the team, I think they’ll pull out all the stops. I’m banking on Brian Elliott to steer them through.

Not-so-obvious players to keep an eye on: Andrew Shaw for the Hawks is one. He seems to be one of those guys who turns up his game come playoff time and he plays a very entertaining brand of hockey when he’s on his game. Jaden Schwartz for the Blues is a guy that can take over a game and he did have 22 pts in 33 games this year.

Anaheim Ducks vs. Nashville Predators (season series 2-1-0 for the Predators)

My goodness the Ducks are loaded for bear. They definitely rival the Caps and Kings for deepest roster but some of those key pieces aren’t going into this post-season 100%. Kesler, Gibson, Rakell, Bieksa, and Perron are all question marks right now.

I love this Predators team. The defense is outstanding and so is their top line but after that top line, it falls off a cliff. The only way the Predators even stay in this series is if Pekka Rinne stands on his head which he no doubtedly can do.

I’m going to take the Ducks in five here. I think they’re too deep and too good on the special teams to allow a team like the Predators to upset them in the playoffs. Then again this is a Bruce Boudreau team…

Not-so-obvious players to keep an eye on: I love to watch Ryan Ellis when he plays the Oilers. He’s got a HUGE shot for such a little guy and you’ve got to check out his beard… Woof! She’s a beaut! Rickard Rakell for the Ducks is my other guy. He’s developing into a fine-looking power centre and who can forget the OT winner he scored on Edmonton this year?

Los Angeles Kings vs. San Jose Sharks (season series 3-1-1 for the Kings)

Another series where a good team is going home early. This one I will watch ever game of I think. I’m only human and I can’t catch-all the series but this Battle of California is shaping up to be a beauty. I wonder what would happen if the Sharks upset the Kings and the Blues beat out the Hawks?… Could we put the dynasty talks to bed then?

The match-ups are just mouth-watering. Thornton vs. Kopitar, Carter vs. Pavelski, Lucic vs. Marleau, Toffoli vs. Couture, Quick vs. Jones, and lastly Doughty vs. Burns. The talent on the ice at any one time is staggering.

For the Sharks to come out of this series alive their bottom six are going to have to work their asses off. The top six will be fine against LA’s top six but when you pit the two teams’ bottom two lines, the Kings have the edge. Players like Tommy Wingels, Melker Karlsson, Matt Nieto, and Chris Tierney will need to step it up.

The Los Angeles Kings just have to play their game. They got even deeper with the acquisitions of Vinnie Lecavalier, Luke Schenn, and Kris Versteeg and this will only serve them better the more series they win. The Kings are a Cup favourite that’s for sure and looking at their roster, it’s not difficult to see why.

I don’t want to pick the Kings to win but after I said the Sharks wouldn’t make the playoffs this season in my pre-season preview, I think I’m going to hop on board. I can’t stand the Kings either so that makes it pretty easy to take the Sharks in 7.

Not-so-obvious players to keep and eye on: Vincent Lecavalier has been to the show before and he knows what it takes to get there. I’m keen to see his performance. Joel Ward is a very good playoff producer. He plays the kind of way that gets you goals and more importantly, respect. I think he could be a factor in any Sharks win.

To recap I’ve got the Blues, Stars, Ducks, and Sharks moving on into the Western Conference Semi-Finals.

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BLH’s 2016 NHL Playoffs Predictions: Eastern Conference

April 11, 2016 Beer League Hero 2 Comments

Can Jags win one more before his time is up?

The time is upon us once again to pick some teams to win the Stanley Cup. Of course it’s made easier for a tenth season as the Edmonton Oilers are out of the running for the Cup. 2016 is looking to be as solid as every as nearly every team in the Western Conference could go all the way and win it. The Eastern Conference will feature some great teams going forward without some big names to start the post-season.

So as we do every year, let’s begin by looking at the match-ups in the East and see what shakes out.

Eastern Conference

Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers (Season series 2-0-2 for Caps)

As the league’s regular season champions, the Capitals are firm favourites to win it all but they’ve never been able to make a convincing argument in the playoffs. They’re also going up against a Flyers team that is red hot and a team that will push the Capitals to the edge physically.

Philly on the other hand has a defense that is absolutely brutal apart from uber-rookie Shayne Gostisbehere and you never know what game Steve Mason will bring to the arena. Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, and Wayne Simmonds are gamers though and don’t forget about Sean Couturier as well. He shut Evgeni Malkin right down a few years ago, in his rookie season if I recall correctly.

I’m picking the Caps in six games because… Braden Holtby. He’s going to be a major factor for the Caps in any series and because the Capitals are just too deep and too good for the Flyers to match-up with.

Not-so-obvious players to look out for: Winger Andre Burakovsky for the Capitals and Shea Weber v2.0 Radko Gudas for the Flyers. Burakovsky can go to Dangle City for Top Shelf Cheddar and Gudas is a killer out there. Literally. He’s probably going to put a guy out for the playoffs in this matchup. Head on a swivel has new meaning when Radko is on the ice.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers (season series 3-1 for the Pens)

I love the way the Penguins have been playing since turfing Mike Johnson. They’re a team re-born and that’s a lot to do with the coaching but it’s also a lot to do with some of the lesser knowns stepping up like Nick Bonino. Surely I’m not alone in thinking he was a throw in when acquired in the Brandon Sutter deal. Carl Hagelin has worked out fabulously since coming over from Anaheim and veterans Matt Cullen and Eric Fehr have proved their worth time and time again. We’re not going to talk about Justin Schultz here…

When Henrik Lundqvist is your goalie, you can never be counted out. He’s one of the top three netminders in the game today and can most definitely steal the Rangers a series on his own. Rick Nash, Derek Stepan, and Derick Brassard are no laughing matters either. The Rangers are team that can play it anyway you want. They’re big, fast and will punish you in ways only a New Yorker can imagine.

Both teams banged up and I have to wonder what kind of series this is going to be. Malkin, Fleury, the Pens other goalie Matt Murray, Beau Bennet, and Olli Maatta are all in the IR right now. For New York, Eric Staal, Mats Zucarello, Ryan McDonagh, and Dan Girardi are dinged up.

I’ll take the Penguins in five games. I think they’ve come together as a group and as soon as those injured players come back, they’ll be too overpowering for the Rangers to contain and Crosby is back to his Hart Trophy self…

Not-so-obvious players to look out for: JT Miller for the Rangers and Tom Kuhnhackl for the Penguins. A couple of youngsters looking to make their mark. They both play bottom 6 roles for the team but are guys who can put the puck in the net.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings (season series tied 2-2-0)

Man what can you say about this series. No Stamkos, Stralman, or Johnson to start for Tampa. Kucherov, Callahan, and Hedman are also nursing injuries… But they’ve got Ben Bishop who is a fine fine goalie to bail their asses out. But with that said, if those six players I mentioned earlier are out for any extended amount of time, (which Stamkos is) then they’re going to be in tough against a healthy Detroit Red Wings squad.

Can the Red Wings, who JUST got into the playoffs thanks to a serious tank-job from the Boston Bruins, use their veteran experience to pull off a pretty decent upset? Is their defense good enough, what about the sub-par goaltending tandem of Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard? Will one of them show up and give Detroit the boost they need?

I don’t like the Lightning’s chances if those injured players can’t play significant minutes. The Red Wings have still got a very good team but the goaltending concerns me. I’ll take Detroit on the backs of Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk in 7 games.

Not-so-obvious players to look out for: Anthony Mantha for Detroit has got big potential and often times we see breakouts in the playoffs. For Tampa I’ll say Jonathan Drouin because if he really wants out, he’s going to have to earn it. This is great chance to show the team his value.

*Mantha was returned to Grand Rapids… So throw that name out of the window. Replace it with Tomas Tatar.*

Florida Panthers vs. New York Islanders (season series 2-1-0 for Florida)

Well well well, what do we have here? The Florida Panthers are good again. I dig it. I’m cheering for Jaromir Jagr all the way here. I can’t say as I’m a huge fan of Barkov or Huberdeau but Jags, Ekblad, and Gudbranson are my kind of players! And who can forget about Bobby Lu? Luongo is due for a great playoffs and the opportunity to show the Canucks the big middle finger whilst raising Lord Stanley’s cup.

The Islanders are my wildcard team though. Their line of Martin, Czikas, and Clutterbuck is outstanding! John Tavares is no slouch and Kyle Okposo is a bull on the ice. But goaltending will be an issue for the Isles. Halak and Travis Hamonic are out and it’ll take a herculean effort from Thomas Greiss to keep them in this series.

I’m taking the Panthers in four games here. I just think they added some nice pieces in Jiri Hudler and Teddy Purcell (noted playoff performer), having five 20 goals scorers, and Roberto Luongo is enough to push them over the edge for me. The Isles simply will have to wait another year to make it out of the 1st round.

Not-so-obvious players to look out for: As I mentioned above, Teddy Purcell has a reputation for turning in on in the post-season. For the Islanders, Frans Nielsen. I like his ability to shut down start players effectively and efficiently.

So to recap I’ve got the Panthers, Penguins, Red Wings, and Capitals all moving on to the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. My Western Conference predictions are here.

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