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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Keith Fries, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects, TPE Hockey, Trades

BLH Oilers Mailbag: 2019 NHL Draft SPECIAL with @KeithFries and @TPEHockey

With the NHL Entry Draft this Friday and Saturday, let’s circle the wagons one last time with a questionnaire for both of our contributing scouts, Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@keithfries). I’ll be participating in this exercise 🙂

Question #1: With the 8th-overall pick, do the Edmonton Oilers move up, trade back, or stay put?

Max: Personally, I always prefer staying put. Moving forward can work out if a team really has an eye on a certain player, but at the 8th-overall spot moving up just a few picks can be costly. Trading back is risky as your guy may be off the board. I’d see Edmonton staying put and selecting from the various talents in the deep #5-#14 range, of this class.

Keith: If you look at Ken Holland’s recent track record, at the draft, he doesn’t usually move up or down. I see him staying put because a) it’s in his nature and b) because the options at #8 are probably as equal as they would be if he moved up to, say, 6th-overall. He might slide back a spot-or-two if he can pick up a valuable asset in a trade, but I just don’t see that happening.

BLH: I concur with the scouts on this one. I don’t really see the advantage in moving up to anything apart from 3rd overall and I can’t see that happening. Trading down would be a more likely event given the group of players ranked #4 to #12, but even then, I just don’t see the point. Get your guy at 8 and walk away happy. Don’t mess around.

Question #2: Playing armchair GM, if you stay at the 8th-overall pick, who would you draft if the following players had already been selected?

1) Jack Hughes
2) Kaapo Kakko
3) Alex Turcotte
4) Bowen Byram
5) Kirby Dach
6) Dylan Cozens
7) Cole Caufield

Max: In this scenario, Peyton Krebs is my guy. Krebs was on a weak Kootenay team but found success, nonetheless. He can run his own line and drive offense even without great teammates.

Keith: I think Trevor Zegras would make a lot of sense. He’s, in my opinion, the smartest player at the top of this class, on-and-off the ice. Really good kid – and when you couple that with all the gifts he has in the rink, it’s really a no-brainer. …See what I did there?

BLH: Krebs and Zegras would definitely be of great value to the Oilers going forth. They’d add an element of flash to the Oilers center depth and if I had to choose one or the other, I’d probably side with Max here and go with Krebs due to his work ethic and two-way game.

With that said, I’m a Matthew Boldy man. For my money, he’s the best all-around forward in the draft and the Oilers are really lacking in those. He can stir the drink from the wing and there aren’t many players in the game you can say do that. He can play across the board and in every situation. To add to that, he’s most likely physically ready to play pro right now and his vision, hands, and hockey IQ are right up there with the best in the draft. A season or two in the NCAA will develop him into an impact player upon his NHL debut.

 Question #3: Who do you think (realistically) will be on the board at #38? Who should the Oilers draft with that pick?

Max: A good option might be Patrik Puistola. Puistola is a popular pick for an under the radar, 2nd-round, option, who’s found a lot of success in the Mestis – the 2nd premiere adult league, in Finland. Puistola is a creative goal scorer who will make the jump to the Liiga, next season.

Keith: A guy that doesn’t get enough love is Maxim Cajkovic. The definition of a “journeyman,” he’s played pretty much all over the world, already, and when you look at how well he’s performed at every stop along the road, he’s the kind of guy that teams will trade for at the deadline to go on a ‘Cup run.

BLH: This will really depend on who the Oilers take at 8th overall. I reckon it’ll be a pretty offensive player, so… I really like John Beecher here. He’s one of the fastest players in the draft, he plays center, and he likes to get mucky. I don’t feel he’s quick like Hughes, but he’s fast like jersey flapping Mike Modano fast. He’s got a pro frame and at the end of the day, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up being 6’2″ and 210lbs. Just a beast on skates. The downside is he’s not all that offensively gifted, so the Oilers might be developing a defensive center/wing here in Beecher if they take him.

Question #4: Do you think Edmonton selects a goaltender in this draft? Why or why not?

Max: Edmonton has six picks in this draft and, with no NHL level netminder in their system, it might be worth spending at least one on a goalie. Spencer Knight might be out of the Oilers’ range, but there’s a deep class behind him who could be available in the 3rd-round.

Keith: It depends on who’s available and when. For me, there are three goaltenders in this draft that matter: Spencer Knight, Dustin Wolf, and Ilya Konovalov. If any of those guys are sitting there in the 3rd-or-4th rounds, I don’t care how good of prospects Stuart Skinner or Olivier Rodrigue are, I’m making the pick.

BLH: I’m not sure. With only six picks, I’d be hard-pressed to take one knowing there are four already in the system. I’d probably wait until next season or if I felt the urge to add another one, sign a free agent out of the NCAA or Europe.

Question #5: Another armchair GM scenario… You’re approached by the Avalanche to trade up to #4. It will cost you the: 8th, 85th, and 100th-overall picks. Do you make that trade, knowing the following players are off the board – and who would you select?

1) Jack Hughes
2) Kaapo Kakko
3) Bowen Byram

Max: Alex Turcotte is my 3rd-ranked prospect, in this draft, and I’d jump at the chance to take him. He’s by far the most complete player in the draft. When you combine his skating, creativity, scoring, intellect, and playmaking abilities, he’s easily the best option available after Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko.

Keith: I’d likely ask for additional draft pick in-return – 3-for-2 deal – but ultimately, no. I’m projecting the same ceiling for guys in the 3rd-to-12th-overall range. No need to move.

BLH: No, I wouldn’t. I do like Keith’s idea though. The M.O. in Edmonton is draft and develop and removing half of your picks to move up and get a player that might not be any better than the guy you take at 8th overall, doesn’t make sense to me. There should be enough players around 86th and 100th that interest me too. So, no. I wouldn’t do that trade.

Question #6: Who, in your opinion, is the most underrated player? The most overrated player?

Max: My pick for most underrated would be Domenick Fensore. He’s a 5’7” defenseman with high caliber offensive tools. A top-5 skater that defend both sides of the ice. My pick for most overrated would be Vasili Podkolzin. He failed to produce in Russia’s lower leagues while other less-known prospects thrived. A top-10 or even top-15 pick should be owning the MHL.

Keith: If we’re speaking in terms of the entire draft class, then Simon Holmstrom would be my most underrated. Really skilled winger. Good playmaking IQ, and did a lot down the stretch that showed a return to his dominant form. The most overrated would be Arthur Kaliyev. The kid can score like nobody’s business. It’s a beautiful shot, and it’s really something fun to watch. But that’s it. I see no compete. I see no hustle. For a kid who’s 6’2” – 190, I see no checking. It’s incredibly frustrating. Do I think he’s a first-round talent? Absolutely. But a late first-rounder. Anyone telling you he’s a top-10 pick lives in a padded cell.

BLH: My most underrated player might be Anttoni Honka. This guy has got some real talent but has disappeared off of scouts’ radars due to a really tough season he’s had. At the beginning of the year, I had him as the 3rd best prospect in the draft. Honka reminds me of Sergei Gonchar so much in his ability to stay cool under pressure. His offensive game is really good and he can thread a needle as well as any other prospect in this draft I feel. Some people might say he looks lazy on the ice, but I just find he’s just so collected it appears that he doesn’t care. I think that some scouts are scared off of him due to his brother Julius’ inability to develop into the player he was expected to. Some team is going to get a good player later on in the draft here, book it.

The other guy who’s being underrated is Vasili Podkolzin. He might not be putting up very much on the scoresheet, but make no bones about it, the Russian Hockey Federation doesn’t push its young players to play at higher levels often and Podkolzin is getting just that from them. He’s special. You try traveling as much as this guy has over the season and still maintain a high degree of production. You’ll see, once he’s settled in one spot for a year, he’ll start to tear things up.

Question #7: Final question… We’ll do one last armchair GM scenario. What kind of deal would you be asking for in return for Jesse Puljujarvi?

Max: The ask would probably be a high pick in his draft and an NHL-ready prospect. You’re taking a chance that he just needed a change of scenery and could look like a real fool if he ends up overperforming.

Keith: Realistically, a 1-1-and-1 – as in: a player, a prospect, and a pick. But, I think the trade market has soured a bit on JP. While there are teams that likely have interest, they probably also have that lingering concern of “is he another Yakupov?” So, a 1-for-2 would be nice, and realistic. Let’s say, for example, if they made a deal with the Los Angeles Kings, it might look like: Jesse Puljujarvi for Alec Martinez or Tyler Toffoli + 64th-overall pick.

BLH: My feeling is that he’s right on the cusp of breaking out. The double hip surgery might slow down the beginning of his season, but I’d be willing to bet that he’ll be producing in the 2nd half and teams are cognizant of that. They’re aware of how young he still is and how the Oilers management, coaching, and playing staff have treated him, and they’ll try to fleece Ken Holland, but I can’t see him falling for it.

There are two trade scenarios for me,

  1. The “futures” ask, meaning picks/prospects.
  2. The “help now” ask, meaning an NHL player.

So for scenario “A”, I’m asking looking for the kind of prospect that will even out the scales in the case that Puljujarvi does turn things around. I’m not sure if we’re talking about an Eeli Tolvanen here, a Drake Batherson/Filip Chlapik, or possibly a bigger deal that would bring a Nolan Patrick to Edmonton. Roslovic out of Winnipeg is an interesting option as well. But something in that range. Gotta play hardball in a deal like this.

In scenario “B”, I’d look at oft-maligned players. Maybe guys who are on the outs with their current organization. Nikita Zadorov, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Jason Zucker are names that come to mind immediately. There are also teams that need to shed salary badly, so what about a Tyler Johnson or Nazem Kadri trade?

Be sure to follow both Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@keithfries) on Twitter and tune into the NHL Entry Draft, this weekend, and have a cold one on us. Or… 8 cold ones. Cheers!

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2019 NHL Entry Draft: Who are the best Defensive Forwards, Snipers, and the Smartest Players Available? by @keithfries

And we’re back with our final round of the 2019 NHL entry draft’s Loves, Lusts, Booms, and Busts.

Let’s begin with the defensive forwards.

Dylan Cozens is a name you might find on most boards teetering on the edge of the top-5. If he’s on the board at 6, he won’t be when pick 7 comes up. With a big frame already, Cozens does an exceptional job of pushing guys off pucks and dominating down low and along the boards. Plays a solid 200-foot, power, game. His play in his own end leads to many breakout attempts and, with his beeline north-south speed, he can quickly move the puck up-ice and finish with a laser beam wrister.

Dylan Cozens: Boom

One name circling the top-10 is Matthew Boldy; a versatile forward out of the U.S. National Team Development Program. “Polarizing” seems to be the word of the year, as it applies to many prospects at the head of this year’s class – including Boldy. Some have categorized him as the 2nd-best player out of the USNTDP program, behind Jack Hughes, while others have said he could be a swing-and-a-miss. Regardless, it’s his two-way game that has scouts intrigued. He isn’t afraid to play along the boards while carrying the puck into the offensive zone. Can easily body out his defender. And while he doesn’t have much speed, Boldy does a nice job of staying in the play with powerful strides and big steps.

Matthew Boldy: Lust

Then there’s Nolan Foote – who has defense in his blood. Unlike his father, Adam, and older brother, Cal, Nolan’s shot and along the wings is where he seems to be most effective. Does a nice job of screening opposing netminders and using his big frame down low. One of the underrated elements of Foote’s game is his passing. He’s an excellent distributor, with a textbook no-look pass. With 138 points (68Gs|70As) in 168 WHL regular season games, Foote has the numbers that prove he’s not a bust and could be a very desirable option on day 2.

Nolan Foote: Lust

The next set of prospects we’ll take a look at are the snipers.

If it’s a sniper you want, Cole Caufield is your guy. He has so many different weapons in his arsenal and uses each one of them effectively. Away from the play, Caufield does a nice job signaling for his shot to deliver a heavy one-timer. When driving the net or playing down low, Caufield’s ability to roof the puck seems unimaginable and leaves the crowd mesmerized. There’s nothing more I need to say.

Cole Caufield: Love

While it could be argued that he’s more of a two-way forward, Vasili Podkolzin’s sniping abilities are the driving force behind his success. Sure, he can muscle through tight defensive coverages or dish out a clean tape-to-tape pass, but his shot is really something special. When on the power play, he has an Alexander Ovechkin-type game of play, where he sets up at the top of the faceoff circle to receive the puck for a deadly one-timer. He can score in a variety of ways and shows good strength on his backhand shot. His offensive gifts can’t be ignored.

Vasili Podkolzin: Lust

Arthur Kaliyev can absolutely bury the puck! Other than that…

Arthur Kaliyev: Bust

And our final group, the brainiacs (IQ).

Dustin Wolf finished the year as not only one of the best goaltenders on the ice but in the classroom, as well – winning the WHL’s Daryl K. (Doc) Seaman Memorial Trophy for the scholastic player of the year. A real student of new age head trajectory, Wolf does a nice job keeping himself mentally balanced during games. Doesn’t get spooked easily, and seems to settle in, more, as the game goes on. Finishing the year with a 1.69 GAA and .936 SV% in 61 games played, Wolf showed equal dominance in the post-season, providing the Everett Silvertips with a true #1-netminder after the departure of Carter Hart. NHL Central Scouting ranking him as the 12th-best North American goaltender is a #^%&ing joke.

Dustin Wolf: Love

I’ve always been a fan of comedians because they’re truth tellers. One person who has a great sense of humor, timing, execution, and delivery is Trevor Zegras – who blew me away in early interviews. His high IQ translates into games, and you can see it every time Zegras takes the ice. He’s got unbelievably deceptive hands and overall playmaking abilities that leave you speechless. He can find anyone on the ice and was one of the USNTDP’s go-to players for offense. While he may elect to make the difficult play, rather than the easy one, sometimes, he has the abilities to make those plays happen and can rectify his mistakes with good defensive coverage.

Trevor Zegras: Love

So, based on last week’s and this week’s articles, the most eligible prospect is…

…TREVOR ZEGRAS!

Edmonton, come on up to the stage and draft your next future Oiler.

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2019 NHL Draft: Who Are the Best Playmakers, Hitters, and Offensive Dmen? by @keithfries

As we come down the final stretch of draft season, NHL scouts are compiling their final rankings for the 2019 NHL draft and journalists are trying to pretend they know what they’re talking about. Yeah… I went there.

Here at Beer League Heroes, we like to keep it light but also informative. So grab a beer and kick back while you read this edition of our dating game: Loves, Lusts, Booms, and Busts.

Let’s start with our first set of eligible prospects, the playmakers.

Even with an undersized frame and lack of physical defense, it’s hard to not fall in love with Jack Hughes. While he may have the scoring touch of a Patrick Kane, of the 112 points Hughes tallied with the USNTDP’s U18 hockey club, this season, 78 were assists. That speaks incredibly well to his team-first mentality and style of play.

Jack Hughes: Lust

Trevor Zegras, who some have dubbed (unfairly) “Jack Hughes Lite,” has some of the best playmaking abilities in this draft class. In fact, his high level of skill is not only greatly desired by scouts but also has become an area of concern – many fearing his exceptional plays won’t carry over well into the NHL. But, Zegras is aware of these negative remarks, stating at the 2019 NHL Scouting Combine, “What works in the USHL won’t work in the NCAA. And what works in the NCAA won’t work in the NHL.” Zegras’ self-awareness is a good reflection of his high I.Q.

Trevor Zegras: Love

While he certainly has performed well enough, this season, to garner attention from scouts and pundits, alike, Brett Leason may very well be playing above his potential – in his last year of Draft eligibility. He played incredibly well in the OHL/CHL playoffs and seems to have found his niche as a playmaking winger. He has great size and because of his age there’s maturity there, but when you factor in things like he’s never cracked 100 points in a regular season and that his numbers took a significant jump this year than in previous ones, you might be looking at a bust more than a sure-fire first-round talent, here.

Brett Leason: Bust

Finally, Ryan Suzuki; who has dropped on many draft boards but still has the upside as a true top-6 forward. His ice-vision and quarterbacking are made for today’s game, and, when you factor in that he was the first-overall pick in the 2017 OHL Priority Selection Draft, you have to think his maturity is off the charts. While he may not beat out his brother, Nick, for draft rights (Nick was selected 13th-overall in 2017 by the Vegas Golden Knights), Ryan definitely has the same game as his brother and potentially a higher ceiling.

Ryan Suzuki: Boom

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Next, let’s take a look at the hard-hitters.

While this draft seems a bit subdued in the physicality department, a top prospect that has some grit and throws his weight around is Moritz Seider. At 6’4” – 207 lbs., Seider looked more than comfortable playing in the German adult league (DEL), this season, and capped off the year with a nice performance in their playoffs and the World Championships representing Team Germany. He drew the most attention at the NHL Scouting Combine, noting to reporters that he had met with all-31 clubs – meaning the whole league is in love with him.

Moritz Seider: Love

Swedish-born prospect, Albin Grewe, would certainly be in this conversation. His game is largely predicated on wearing down the opposition with his strength, whether he’s delivering a check, bodying up a defender along the boards, or just being a general pest against the puck carrier. While he likely will fall to day 2, I still feel Grewe has the skillset to make it as an everyday NHLer. I had the pleasure of interviewing him, earlier this season, and he seemed like a straight-shooter, no bullshite.

Albin Grewe: Boom

One name I’ve seen floating around is Navrin Mutter, the 6’3” centerman from the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs. A two-way freight train, one had better keep their head on a swivel when Mutter is nearby. While his stats suggest he’d likely be a bottom-6 NHLer, and therefore a “bust” in this dating game, I’d like to avoid getting my ass kicked by one tough ‘mutter’ – SHUT YO’ CLEVER MOUTH! So…

Navrin Mutter: LOVE!! (Please don’t kill me)

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Our last category, for this week’s episode (part two coming soon), is offensive defensemen.

Philip Broberg drew love from the media, early on in the season, due to his exceptional breakout plays from his own end. One of the best skaters in this draft, Broberg can reach top-speed like a Tesla Roadster. He can absolutely rifle the puck and looks like he could be a solid PP defenseman, in the NHL. He could stand to work on his defensive game a bit, but again we’re talking about offensive defenseman, and in that conversation, he’s undoubtedly a hot commodity.

Philip Broberg: Boom

While he has fallen on many draft boards into the second, even third, round, Anttoni Honka began the season as a potential top-10 pick. His ability to carry the puck 200-feet is certainly intriguing, with good passing in the opposition zone, as well. He’s a really good skater, with shifty feet and quick lateral transitions. I’m not so down on him as some other draft analysts. He did a nice job contributing to the score sheet while playing for various clubs and leagues.

Anttoni Honka: Lust

Finally, there’s Lassi Thomson, a Finnish-born defenseman currently playing for the WHL’s Kelowna Rockets. A personal checkmark in my scouting book is whether or not someone made the jump to international waters – be it a European coming to North America or vice versa. Some scouts seem irritated by his lack of physicality on the defensive end, but then quickly turn around and glorify his offensive upside. While I err on the side of optimism, I can admit he needs work. But his ability to join the rush, coupled with his versatile shot combinations and strong backhand, is desirable for today’s NHL.

Lassi Thomson: Bust

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Edmonton Oilers 2019 Draft: Will the Oilers Choose a Sniper or a Diaper? By @KeithFries

In this post, I summoned the talents of Keith Fries in order to give me a clearer idea of the top snipers that could be available to the Edmonton Oilers in this year’s draft. I wanted to know which players were the real deal and which ones weren’t and the reason for that is, I think there’s a real internal debate going on within the Oilers amateur scouting department as to which player they should take this year. Should the take a more rounded prospect like Peyton Krebs or Matthew Boldy, should they swing for the fences and take a massive risk on the big puck-rushing Philip Broberg, or would it be more prudent to add a bonafide goalscorer to play alongside Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?

I hope you enjoy Keith’s article below. You can follow him here on Twitter.

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As we inch closer to the NHL Entry Draft, you’ll hear more-and-more about players being labeled as booms or busts.

So in that same line of thinking, we’re going to play a game I’m calling “Sniper or Diaper.”

Cole Caufield – 5’7” – 163 – R – RW – USNTDP U18

Let’s just get this one out of the way, early. Not only is Caufield a sniper, but he’s also a contributor in a multitude of ways. His quick decision making and timely goals all help generate not only offense but confidence down the lineup. He’s got a variety of shots in his arsenal and shows an equal amount of velocity and power on his forehand and backhand, alike. His performance in the World U18s will likely propel him up a few spots on most draft boards.

Conclusion: Sniper

Arthur Kaliyev – 6’2” – 190 – L – LW – Hamilton Bulldogs

This one could go either way depending on who you’re asking. For me, I have my concerns about Kaliyev’s overall game, but if we’re speaking strictly about his sniping abilities, there’s no question he can bury the biscuit. A comparison, maybe not in terms of shooting stroke or technique, but in terms of their skillset and lack of versatility in other facets of their play, would be Owen Tippett. Nothing much beyond his shot.

While I didn’t dwell on it above, Caufield isn’t afraid to attack the dirty areas of the play – down low or along the boards – to make an impact. He’s 5’7” mind you. And then you have Kaliyev, a guy with size most players could only dream of, completely avoiding those situations. I see a lot more open space around Kaliyev than I do Caufield, and that’s a direct correlation of Kaliyev’s lack of grit and physical assertiveness. He showed the same lackadaisical effort in my early viewings of him and I wonder if his outstanding season, this year, is more of a player trying to go all out in his contract year, so-to-speak.

Conclusion: Diaper

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4UPwqwZMrc

Raphael Lavoie – 6’4” – 198 – R – RW – Halifax Mooseheads

Lavoie probably didn’t live up to the standards that analysts put on him, this season, but he was still incredibly productive at 1.17 PPG. Lavoie does a nice job playing to his size, a bi-product of his positional versatility being able to lineup down center. He’s got some grit in his game and can be a difference maker when he’s rolling. But, those nights seem to come and go, which is why his draft stock may not be as high as early projected. As a shooter, he’s got some real power in his release.

Though, I worry about his lack of focus. …In one game I saw, he was wearing a suit (whether a healthy scratch or injured, I’m not sure) and was looking at his phone every time the camera panned to him. So yes, there are things about his game and his shot that intrigue me, but I have my concerns, as well.

Conclusion: Wiper (Neither)

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Edmonton Oilers: New GM/Head Coach Rumors + 2019 NHL Draft Q&A w/Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith Fries (@KeithFries)

Yesterday, during the intermission of the Blues/Jets game, uber-insider Elliotte Friedman said that Mark Hunter had completed his 2nd interview for the General Manager’s position.

Just before we get into this, I need to comment on the playoffs.

I’m not one that cheers for teams because they’re in Canada. I cheer for the Oilers and when they’re not playing in the post-season, I cheer for whatever team I find most entertaining. I’m pretty sure I cheer against the Canadian teams because I think that the “Cup has to come back to Canada” narrative is daft.

So I was happy to see Calgary lose, I was hoping St. Louis would win because I love Pat Maroon, and I’ll be putting my Bruins hat on later today and going for Boston to beat Toronto.

The Stanley Cup only deserves to be in one place in Canada and that’s Edmonton 🙂

Back to the GM talk now…

With the news that Pat Verbeek and Mike Gillis, in addition to Hunter, have been interviewed bodes well for the Oilers. The organization is actually going about this in the right manner.

Looks like Ken Holland is out of the picture and we’re still waiting on news of any other candidates (Ron Hextall, Bill Guerin, and Mike Futa for example) getting an interview. Oh, and don’t forget, Kelly McCrimmon is still a name lingering about.

My feeling is that Seattle is probably McCrimmon’s destination given his experience getting Vegas off the ground and the May 1st “soft” deadline that Darren Dreger said the Oilers have set in place. Unless the wheels fall off for Vegas, I’m not sure he’ll be made available to interview before the first of next month.

Having it all wrapped up by the first of May would give the new management team time to get briefed on the draft, free agents, ongoing trade negotiations, etc. I like that they’ve set this line in the sand.

Funny, Eklund had an E5 out today! Mark Hunter will be the Oilers new GM and his coach will be DJ Smith.

I contacted a source directly connected to the team about this and the answer was a very direct, “NO!”

I think it’s natural to connect the GM to a coach he’s worked with in the past though. Hunter/Smith, McCrimmon/Rocky Thompson, Verbeek/Benoit Groulx, Gillis/Vigneault (before being hired by Philly)…

According to Sportsnet, Smith is being groomed to be an NHL head coach and his mentor is none other than Mike Babcock.

Buffalo Sabres blog, Die by the Blade, did a little profile on Smith here if you’re curious as to why his name is being brought up.

I’m still awaiting answers from two more sources on the topic mind you, so we’ll see where that goes. I do believe Jeff Marek and Friedman were pontificating on Edmonton bringing in that exact combo in their most recent podcast though.

Some folks are of the belief that Hunter is a very good player evaluator. Someone who can project a player’s potential quite well. I would question that at the NHL level because I don’t feel he did an extraordinary job at the draft the three years he was with Toronto.

In that trifecta of seasons, the Maple Leafs had 28 draft picks and the number of players they might’ve hit on I can count on one hand.

Anyone with Bob McKenzie’s list of draft rankings should be able to get an NHL player in the top half of the first round. It’s all the rest of it that’s tricky, and my opinion on Mark Hunter is simply that I have no idea if he’s any good or not, but that’s a very large number of draft picks playing in the AHL out of the 2015 draft. On the other hand, the team was bad, had a good draft position and some extra picks. Oh, and scouting department that is so big the Ottawa Senators wouldn’t know what to do with it. And of course, to further complicate things, no one actually knows how much influence Hunter had on that draft. (source)

Whatever the final outcome is, Bob’s on it.

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A 2019 NHL DRAFT Q&A

We decided to do a little pre-draft Q&A with a couple of bright minds who cover NHL draft prospects, Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@KeithFries), to give you a bit of clearer idea on this year’s draft class.

By now, you should be familiar with Max’s work. He’s been doing some very interesting and informative prospect profiles for us this season, but Mr. Fries will be new to you.

I met Keith whilst reaching out to various scouts at numerous levels on Linkedin and the amount of time he afforded to me as I asked him question after question on this year’s class was beyond what I’d expected. So I asked him if he wanted a place to publish his work, and he accepted.

At the end, there’s a little gift from Keith to the hockey world that I think you’ll really dig.

Let’s get into this Q&A because she’s a bit of a long one. I asked some tough questions, or at least questions I thought were tough and there are some that are Oilers-centric for us Oilers fans.

What does your top-10 look like for this year’s draft?  

Max (@TPEHockey): 1. Jack Hughes 2. Kaapo Kakko 3. Alex Turcotte 4. Dylan Cozens 5. Trevor Zegras 6. Bowen Byram 7. Peyton Krebs 8. Kirby Dach 9. Alex Newhook 10. Cole Caufield 

Keith (@keithfries): 1. Jack Hughes 2. Kaapo Kakko 3. Vasili Podkolzin 4. Kirby Dach 5. Dylan Cozens 6. Matthew Boldy 7. Peyton Krebs 8. Bowen Byram 9. Trevor Zegras 10. Cole Caufield 

Can you give me your top-15 mock draft? Who might jump into the top-10 that we aren’t expecting to (i.e. Barrett Hayton)? 

Max (@TPEHockey): 1. NJD – Jack Hughes 2. NYR – Kaapo Kakko 3. CHI – Alex Turcotte 4. COL – Bowen Byram 5. LAK – Vasili Podkolzin 6. DET – Trevor Zegras 7. BUF – Dylan Cozens 8. EDM – Peyton Krebs 9. ANA – Kirby Dach 10. VAN – Cole Caufield 11. PHI – Matthew Boldy 12. MIN – Victor Soderstrom 13. FLA – Arthur Kaliyev 14. ARI – Alex Newhook 15. MTL – Bobby Brink  

Like how Hayton went 5th-overall since centers were rare in that draft, a defenseman could do just that. If so, look for Victor Soderstrom to go higher, possibly in the top-10. Thomas Harley could also make some big strides.  

Keith (@keithfries): 1. NJD – Jack Hughes 2. NYR – Kaapo Kakko 3. CHI – Vasili Podkolzin 4. COL – Bowen Byram 5. LAK – Kirby Dach 6. DET – Dylan Cozens 7. BUF – Matthew Boldy 8. EDM – Peyton Krebs 9. ANA – Trevor Zegras 10. VAN – Cole Caufield 11. PHI – Alex Turcotte 12. MIN – Cam York 13. FLA – Moritz Seider 14. ARI – Victor Soderstrom 15. MTL – Nick Suzuki 

I can’t see anyone making a giant leap up the draft boards, this year. However, I think some of the guys already seen as top-10 prospects could wiggle into the top-5 – like Caufield, Boldy, or Cozens. 

Who do you think has the potential to fall in the draft (i.e. Joe Veleno)? 

Max (@TPEHockey): I don’t see a Veleno-like drop from anyone, this season, but Kirby Dach could end up falling. He has flashed some insane talent, and at points looked like easily the 3rd-overall prospect. But, he’s also been wildly inconsistent. He at one point went on a 15+ game skid where he only managed to put up a few points. The inconsistency could contribute to a big fall, but I don’t see him dropping past 15th-overall. 

Keith (@keithfries): Based solely on the recent news that he’ll be staying in Russia for two more seasons, it’s entirely possible that Vasili Podkolzin drops to the 11-15th-overall bracket. That’s not indicative of his play, mind you. And for how much shuffling and moving up there was for playoff bubble teams, in this year’s lottery, I can’t see Podkolzin’s stock dropping that dramatically. Maybe more the equivalent of a Filip Zadina-esque fall than Veleno’s. 

After Hughes and Kakko, who is the best player available? 

Max (@TPEHockey): It’s gotta be Turcotte. His stock plummeted after he missed most of the season with injury, but as he came back people realized the massive mistake they made. He’s a stellar skater and playmaker, but also phenomenal defensively. He takes the puck to dangerous areas with his skating abilities and makes perfect passes to create opportunities. So far at the U18s, he’s been great on the PK. His defensive play is probably the best of the top-forward prospects, maybe second to Dach. 

Keith (@keithfries): When it comes down to taking the best player available, it’s really hard to look past all of Podkolzin’s offensive gifts. 

The Edmonton Oilers will have the opportunity to take a pretty talented forward at #8 overall. If you were the GM of that team, who would you take and why? 

Max (@TPEHockey): If he’s available I’d definitely go with Peyton Krebs. We’ve seen Leon Draisaitl lacking support from the wing, but in a few years, Krebs could fill that role. 

Keith (@keithfries): I’ll piggy-back on Max’s answer and say Krebs, as well. He finds ways to make it on the score sheet with little help around him, and that sounds like a Godsend to the nightly hot-and-cold Oilers. 

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Based on the previous question, I’d like to know how you’d approach their 2nd–round pick, as well. 

Max (@TPEHockey): The Oilers need a goalie. Shane Starrett has had quite the season in the AHL, but I don’t see him being a starter for Edmonton. With that 2nd–rounder, I’d take a long look at Ilya Konovalov. He’s an overager in the KHL who has been very good for Lokomotiv. His stats are similar to those of Igor Shestyorkin and Ilya Sorokin, but he’s two years younger. He might only be a year or two out from getting some NHL playing time. 

Keith (@keithfries): If there’s one knock against the Oilers it’s their lack of defensive depth and spark out of the back end. I’m projecting forwards to be the flavor of the first round, so a defender with some upside, like an Anttoni Honka or Tobias Bjornfot, might be the way to go.  

Would you trade the Oilers’ first-rounder for help in other areas? If so, what would that deal look like? 

Max (@TPEHockey): I would not trade a 1st–rounder, this year. Passing on a top-prospect like Krebs for immediate help could look really bad in a few years. In general, I’m against trading away high 1st-round picks. 

Keith (@keithfries): A top-10 pick in this draft would be the equivalent of a top-5 in recent classes. So moving out that pick has to net a viable return. At this point as an organization, they’re nowhere near a playoff push, so I don’t see how a trade helps them. Build for the future and make the pick. 

Is this a good year to draft a goaltender if you’re the Oilers? If so, who would you take, where would you take him, and why?  

Max (@TPEHockey): 8th is definitely too high to go after the highly-touted Spencer Knight, and while the 2nd-rounder is a little high for Konovalov, it’s still a good pick in my opinion. What he’s been doing in the KHL would be made a bigger deal of if he was a prospect for a high profile team. 

Keith (@keithfries): There are only a handful of goaltenders that I can see have starting potential, so if they’re off the board, I’d imagine Edmonton sticking with what they have in their system, already.  

When you’re scouting players, what are the most important attributes you look for in a: forward, defenseman, and goalie? What are things that you might consider red flags? 

Max (@TPEHockey): In both a forward and defenseman, the first thing I look for are basic attributes in a player. Usually, that means skating, passing, shot, etc.

For forwards, I look for how a player drives the play. Are they creating the offense or are they benefiting off linemates?

For defensemen, I usually look at how well they move the puck and see the ice in the offensive zone as well as how well they cover their guy, cover a zone, and cut off passing lanes.

One thing to look at is NHL Central Scouting’s player checklists. They’re available to the public and a good thing to look at when evaluating a player.

For goalies, there are a lot of things I look at. My priorities are mainly on puck tracking and technical ability. How well does a goalie follow the puck? How are their angles? Depth? Overall puck tracking is the one thing I want to see. This means seeing how well a goaltender can keep themselves square with the puck and in position to make a save. If a goalie is always square to a shooter it’s very hard to score nowadays. Goals today come from taking a goalie out of position. 

Keith (@keithfries): In a forward, I like to quickly identify their skill set. If they’re a playmaker, sniper, two-way, etc., and then see how their attributes best help the team. If you have a player who’s a sniper, and you keep lining him up at center but complain that there’s a lack of production from your wingers, then move him to the outside and put a playmaker down the middle. That’s not true of every line, just providing a quick example…

As for defensemen, I want to know for sure that they can be disciplined in the art of defense. It’s in their job description, after all. Backchecking, physical play, blocking shots, you name it.

As for netminders, it’s always about being the last line of defense in the trenches, so to speak. You need someone who stays calm and keeps you in the game on nights when there’s chaos and little to no production. 

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Can you give me a few players who might be hidden gems that could be snapped up in the later rounds of the draft?  

Max (@TPEHockey): Justin Bergeron. He’s an overager, but only missing the 2018 Entry Draft by a few hours. He’s been an integral defensive piece on Rouyn Noranda, who have been one of the best teams in the CHL. Other players I’d look for would be Cole MacKay, Xavier Simoneau, and Drew Helleson. 

Keith (@keithfries): There are a couple of USNTDP kids that could fly under the radar of the first few rounds, like Henry Thrun or Alex Vlasic. It’s also entirely possible that a guy like Nolan Foote, who has been a ghost on draft boards all season, could be an everyday NHLer. 

Which players do you feel have the ability to play in the NHL right away? 

Max (@TPEHockey): The only players I can say will play in the NHL are Hughes and Kakko. Cozens would be the next guy to look for. He’s got the size, speed, and power to survive in the NHL, but I think throwing him in would be rushing him. He’d benefit more from playing another year in juniors. 

Keith (@keithfries): Agree with Max that I can only really see Hughes and Kakko being promoted to the NHL, next year. A few players who are already physically mature – Boldy, Dach, and Cozens – all may get a 10-game contract at some point, though. 

What are your thoughts on projection metrics like NHLe? 

Max (@TPEHockey): While interesting, you have to take them with a grain of salt. Some leagues I’ve found feel undervalued, mainly the NCAA. They’re fun to look at and good for people that want to get a quick look at who the top guys are, but they don’t tell the full story. 

Keith (@keithfries): They’re bulls**t. 

That was a lot of fun to do and I thank them both for taking the time to help out. I hope we can do some more as the draft draws closer. Make sure you give Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@KeithFries) a follow as they are quite keen on hockey prospects and know their shite.

GIFT: Keith’s has released a 2019 NHL draft journal that you can download here.

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