Tag Archives: Nail Yakupov

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rob Cooke

Projecting the Edmonton Oilers: Centers

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Last time we talked I ventured into the realm of player point projections for the 2015-6 season. In my exuberance I got a little carried away on Taylor Halls totals. I know that 90 points isn’t likely a realistic number given that the Art Ross went to Jamie Benn last season with 87. Now I am not saying that it is impossible for Hall to get that high of a total just highly unlikely. The X-factor for how well Hall will produce is going to be the phenom. No I am not  talking about the Undertaker for all you WWE fans, although the ‘Taker has always been my favorite wrassler. Of course I am talking about Connor McDavid. We all know he will be an amazing player but what we don’t know is just how amazing and how soon. If the McSaviour steps in and immediately starts kicking ass and taking names then there may be the possibility that we will see Taylor Hall mentioned as an Art Ross candidate. Not likely but still possible. With that out of the way it is time to get to the projections for the centers.

Before I am going to start we will need to figure out just who these players are. We know that this position is finally a strength for the organization after years of not having 4 guys that can play in the world’s toughest league. This season we have three proven pivots in Nuge, Letestu, and to a smaller degree Lander. Lander came a long way last season in proving he belongs at this level and can be a complementary offensive player. His two-way play has always been up to par but with virtually no offense at the NHL level until this past season he was viewed as a bit of a tweener. Too good for the AHL but not good enough for the NHL. For whatever reason he took a massive step forward last season and the third line center position is his to lose in training camp. Obviously the fourth center that will be lifting asses out of seats for years to come is Connor McDavid. He is a guarantee for top 6 minutes from the outset and will get a ton of power-play time and a big zone start push. The kid has excelled at every level he has ever played so there is little reason to doubt that the trend will change to start the year. Now that we have got our list of competitors let’s get to it. Or as the immortal Jim Ross used to say, “Business is damn sure about to pick up!” I love that guy…

RNH

When we talk about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a player it is easy to forget that he is still only 22 years old and hasn’t even hit his peak years yet. As insane as it is to think, Nuge will still get better as a player. He is already a very solid two-way player but with another year of experience Ryan will likely be even better than before. How much better is open to debate but what isn’t open for debate is his importance to this team. Last season he proved that he can push the river without Taylor Hall to his left and is able of controlling the game when he is on the ice. There isn’t one part of RNH’s game that I feel is lacking. I would like to see him shoot the puck more but that would be the only real issue I would have with the kid. After missing 20 games in his rookie season, a year in which he was robbed of the Calder, Ryan has been a fairly durable guy even though there was some question in his draft year about whether his slight frame could handle the beating he would get. Over the past three seasons Nuge has only missed 16 games. Pretty damn good for a guy that people thought wouldn’t be able to handle the hitting at the NHL level. Last season we saw Nugent-Hopkins start with the usual suspects. Centering the top line with Hall and Eberle on his wings. When Hall was lost to injury Benoit Pouliot was given the opportunity to fill the enormous hole left in the absence of number 4, and he did fine. Well he did great but we don’t want to give Benny a swelled head.

After the post yesterday we already have our predictions for who Nuge will play with. My best guess is he will play a lot of time with Pouliot and Eberle. Their chemistry in the second half of the season was great and I don’t see any reason to change that now. So we know who the players but how are they going to be used? I doubt they will take a ton of defensive of draws, Lander and Letestu will likely get the lions share of those, but I doubt he gets the zone start push from previous years either. The cherry assignments are definitely going to the McDavid line. We need to put that kid in the best possible position for success. That means a ton of offensive zone starts and a lot of power-play time.

The question then is how much will this affect the output of the RNH trio? My answer to that is not a whole lot really. These three are going to see an over abundance of the neutral zone starts and should still be able to make hay out of it. Nuge last season played 76 games. He had 24 goals to go along with his 32 assists. The 56 points he totaled last season tied his career high while his 24 goals set a new career high. The best part about these stats is that his shooting percentage of last season is entirely sustainable. It is a higher than his career average to this point but if we remove the lock-out season where it was drastically low he is right around par for the course. Next season I see Ryan playing in pretty much every game or damn close to it and putting up very similar numbers despite a change in his zone starts. Nuge will hit the 20 goal mark again but little higher I think. I am going to say 22 goals and 33 assists. That’s 55 points for any of you that need a calculator to add it up. Are we concerned about this total? Not really, I think if Nuge an top 50 next year we are in good standing.

Connor McDavid

There is nothing I can say about this 18 year old kid that hasn’t already been said by someone. If you want some background information on this kid there is scads of articles out there to fill your little McD fix. I’ve also already established that I think he will play mostly with Taylor Hall on his left and if I have to pick one for the right it would likely be Teddy Purcell. Well Purcell until Novemberish, then I see Yakupov taking his rightful place in the top 6. So what will a season of Connor look like? This kid is going to do some amazing things I tell you. Fantastically amazing things. This kid is so good that he will be able to do things that we just don’t think are even possible! I know that we have to temper our expectations for this coming season but that is easier said than done. Every time Connor has come to a new challenge has not only completed it, he has absolutely crushed it!

The speed with which McDavid plays is unlike anything I have ever seen before. He seems to always have another gear to go to. It doesn’t matter what opposition seem to throw at him he always seems to not only persevere but excel. It is so hard to be anything less than exuberant when we talk about Connor, and because of it I have seen some pretty outlandish ideas about how his season could go. One post I read said that he would not only win the rookie scoring race but he would also win the Art Ross trophy as league leading scorer. There is a good chance the guess is right about the rookie race although guys like Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart will want to have something to say about that before all is said and done. So before we get to point predictions for the second coming of Gretzky I will make a few guesses about some accolades he will win this year. I think that yes he will be the rookie scoring race winner this year. No I don’t think he will win the Calder. Not that I don’t think he will be deserving but the league seems to not want Oilers rookies to take home that honor. Maybe it is our punishment for drafting first overall four times. Who knows. He will be at the all-star game and will make the all rookie team. I also think that McDavid will be the Oilers MVP this season. Those are my predictions, if I am right I expect glorious applause and champagne showers but if I am wrong I will categorically deny ever making any such statements.

After we have all dried our tears as the realization dawns on us that our favorite son likely won’t receive the proper respect that is due him. We can continue on safe in the knowledge that one day soon we will get to see Connor take us back to a long drink from Lord Stanley’s Cup. Now that I have warmed you to the cockles of your heart maybe even to the sub-cockles area, as Dennis Leary once said, we can move on to the point predictions. If we use the stats from the past season and adjust it to NHL levels using Gabriel Desjardins NHL equivalencies it would mean translate to roughly 21 goals and 35 assists. Of course when I figure those totals out I am pro-rating his numbers over a full 72 OHL season before I converted to NHL scoring estimates. So as we know McDavid played 47 games in the OHL last season and had 120 points. 44 goals and 76 assists. When we use that ad figure out the totals over a 72 game season it would look something like 67 goals and 116 assists. Those are absolutely insane numbers! Do I agree with the totals that Mr. Desjardins’ ratio suggests? Not necessarily. I think that he likely exceeds those numbers. He will receive a huge zone start push and will play a lot on the power-play which should hopefully be humming along under McLellan. My personal best guess for his production this season is 24 goals and 40 assists. In all reality I would be happy with anything above 50 points but I think Connor will have higher expectations for himself than I do. He is an intense competitor that won’t accept anything less than his best 100% of the time. What are your guesses for this young superstar?

Anton Lander

Anton Lander took some major strides last season once he finally had a head coach that trusted him and believed in charge of his usage. Lander finally developed the offensive consistency that media and fans alike have been hoping for since he first arrived in Edmonton. He played with a variety of players last season and that might have helped his numbers a little bit. Taylor Hall is one hell of a line-mate to have if you are expecting to provide offensively. In his 38 games last year Landy managed 6 goals and 20 assists. Fantastic numbers for a third line center, which is exactly where he will fit into the roster again this fall. The players on his wing this year won’t necessarily be of the same caliber as Hall but with guys like Yakupov and Korpikoski there should still be a decent contribution to goal total this year. For all we know the other wing could be filled with Leon Draisaitl. That would be a nice line to get to watch for the season!

This player to me is the hardest to forecast his numbers for next year because in all honesty I am not entirely sure of who he will play with. My best guess could be way off and that will have a big impact on his numbers. While his point totals are definitely a very important part of the picture there is a lot more to Anton Lander then goals and assists. Anton brings considerable two-way skill and decent face off skills to a team that sorely needs more defensively responsible players.

My projection for Lander is that his scoring levels will remain roughly where they were last year with 12 goals and 30 assists. Really nice numbers for a 3rd line center and depending on who his wingers are the numbers could move in either direction. I wish that I were more confident with my guess on this player but I am not at all. I hope that I am right or even pleasantly surprised as any measurable drop in scoring could be seen as a step backwards in his development and could spell the end of his career as an Oiler.

Mark Letestu

Mark Letestu is one of the newest Edmonton Oilers, joining the franchise on the opening day of free agency. He was signed to a three-year contract with a cap hit of 1.8 million dollars and will fill the vacant fourth line center position once filled by defensive stalwart and faceoff guru Boyd Gordon. I will confess I don’t know very much about the guy and don’t profess to know. For my requirements I read a few different sites breakdown of who the player is and what he will bring to the team. The most notable being from our friends over at the Oilers Rig. In the piece Alex Thomas, aka @alex_thomas14, gives his two cents on both Letestu and Sekera. If you haven’t read the piece you really should as Alex is one of the young shining up and comers in the Oilers blogging arena. I respect his opinions and his writing is generally very in-depth and informative. Should you have missed the article it is available to read here. I wouldn’t be a very good Beer Leaguer if I didn’t also mention that our very own Beer League Hero had an excellent post of his own  the subject that I recommend you to read to get a better idea of the player. If you have a hankering for more information read that piece here.

We can expect he will fill a defensive role for the most, similar to that of Gordon last season. His wingers will more often than not be Matt Hendricks and Rob Klinkhammer with Luke Gazdic making the occasional appearance. The trio is not going to be expected to do a lot offensively but will be tasked with taking the worst zone starts and a lot of time in their own zone. He has been adequate in a bottom six role in Columbus and will bring a lot more offense to the line up then Boyd Gordon could have ever hoped to. My guesstimate is that he will end the season with somewhere between 20 and 25 points and that is about as close to a point total that I am going to go on a player that I don’t know.

Those will be the four most used centers that we will have over the course of the 82 game schedule and it is a far deeper talent pool than a year ago. For the first time in a long time we will have competition at camp at every position, center included. It is an exciting time to be a Oilers fan for sure and I can only see it getting better from here on out. I can’t wait to see what the future brings for this fast young team! Thanks for reading and as always I want to hear from you! In the comments or on twitter, @cooke_rob. Next time we are going to look at the situation on right wing where there will be plenty of competition at amp for the four available slots. Remember if you like our great little site visit our T-shirt shop and get your very own Beer League Heroes shirts!

 

Cheers,

Rob

Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rob Cooke

Projecting the Edmonton Oilers: Left Wing Edition

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This is the slow time of year from now until training camp for the vast majority of NHL teams. Prospect camps are wrapping up around the league and the players re heading home to start their off-season training programs in hopes of earning a roster slot in the fall. There is not a whole lot to look forward to over the next eight to nine weeks. One of the things that get’s me through the long summer month’s is reading the various Oilers blogs for any tidbits of news that will fill insatiable lust for all things Oilers.

There are so many fantastic writers out there that I can’t possibly name all of them. The one that has always stood out for me and I read his posts twice a day is Mr. Allen Mitchell, known in the blogosphere as Lowetide. I thoroughly enjoy his work even though I occasionally agree with his ideas. I will say however that out of all the Oilers related writers, both mainstream and otherwise, I would likely say that my ideas most closely align with Lowetide.

Now I know you are asking me where the hell I am going with this as it is getting border line creepy, so let’s get right down to the task at hand. This morning I seen on lowetide.ca that he has posted his official precursor to his annual RE series. I know that most Oilers fans have likely already read the article but for those that haven’t you can find it here. I highly recommend reading the entire series as his unique question and answer series that he does for each player is truly excellent! He is goes into a lot of depth with each player and covers things like line-mates, ice time, and of course the ever popular point projections.

For my purposes I am not going to go into anywhere as much detail as Mr. Mitchell. I am going to separate the series into six articles in total. One to cover each player position and a final one to cover the new coach. Today we are going to start with the left wingers. This is the easiest position for me to start with because the depth of actual NHL players on the left side makes it easy to figure out who will actually be on the opening night roster. In my estimation the four left wingers that will put on the white, orange, and blue on October 8th in St. Louis will be Taylor Hall, Benoit Pouliot, Lauri Korpikoski, and Matt Hendricks. There really isn’t anyone that will be able to challenge any of these players for the spot coming into camp this year. So lets dive right in and see what is what.

Taylor Hall

Since his draft in 2010 Taylor Hall has been a force to be reckoned with when flying down the ice with the puck on his stick. He has the ability and skill to embarrass a lot of defencemen and puts fear into goalies as he is barreling down on them. Right now before McDavid has played an official NHL game Taylor is without a doubt in my mind the best player the Oilers have. Obviously adding a generational talent like Connor changes that dynamic but he is still one of if not the best left-wing in the entire league.

Now before I will get into my best guess as to where he will end up point wise it is best if we take a look at his history and who it is likely we will see him playing with. His history for the most part is fantastic. In two of the last three seasons Hall has averaged just over a point per game. The exception being last season where he only played 53 games and was only able to chip in 38 points with 14 goals. His goal total was a little lower than his usual due to a lower than average shooting percentage and playing through various injuries throughout the season. Hall when healthy and raring to go is good for about a point per and that trend should continue next season regardless of who he plays with.

Thus far in his career Hallsy has spent the majority of his time on Ice with fellow young stars Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins but with his injuries last season and Ebs, Nuge, and Pouliot forming an excellent line with great chemistry he was moved to different spots in the line up and that affected his totals as well. This coming season I think we will see Taylor play the vast majority of his minutes with McDavid and an interchanging right-wing. In my opinion they are going to want to start the season with a veteran presence on the line with good two-way skill. The most likely candidate to fill the spot is Teddy Purcell. He may not be the fastest skater but he also wouldn’t be a liability in the offensive zone and he could lighten the defensive responsibility on McDavid.

With those two playing with Hall that allows Coach McLellan to keep the top line that finished last season together to handle the toughest competition. Obviously playing with a rookie center would mean a plethora of offensive zone starts for Hall and company and with all that talent it is hard to not expect amazing results.

My prediction for Taylor Hall is that his shooting percentage will return slightly above average with such a gifted player passing the puck to him. As far as point totals go I see Hall playing 75 games and eclipsing his best year to date by hitting the 30 goal mark for the first time and will add 50 assists. It will be hard not to hit those totals when you are sending and receiving passes with Connor McDavid.

Benoit Pouliot

Last season was a break out year for Benoit Pouliot. He was given the opportunity to play first line minutes for an extended period of time and he excelled at it. Despite missing a big chunk of games due to a broken foot Pouliot still set a career high in goals, bulging the twine 19 times in only 58 games. His previous best was 16 with the Bruins a few years back but that was in 16 more games than last season. Along with the 19 goals he added 15 apples which puts him only two points off his career best in 22 fewer outings. Any way you look at it that is just great news. To be fair Pouliot did have a much higher than average shooting percentage but given an 80 game performance he still wold have broken his personal highs in both goals and assist.

A large portion of his playing time, at least after he returned from injury, was spent alongside numbers 93 and 14. Definitely two terrific players entering the prime of their careers and Pouliot didn’t look a bit out of place. I see McLellan trying this trio out together in the pre-season and excluding a complete loss of the chemistry they showed last season  will hopefully be the starting line on opening night.

While Pouliot doesn’t have Hall’s offensive gifts he is more responsible defensively and isn’t afraid to go into the dirty areas with the big boys of the western conference. Should Benny play a full healthy season and spend a lot of time with the same players as last season I think we will see even higher offensive totals. Like I said his shooting percentage was dramatically higher than his career average but some of that can be attributed to playing with better players then he has before.

Next season my prediction for Pouliot is 78 games played, all in a top six role. His point totals will also go up accordingly with his bigger role from the very start of the season. I see Benoit netting 22 goals and 20 assists for 42 points. While not a huge total it is still more than respectable for a guy that has never hit 40 in his career.

Lauri Korpikoski

Next on the list is one of the newer Oilers and a player that I fully admit I have not seen play a ton of hockey. For a look at what his career has looked like point wise and a brief overview of the player in general I went to Elite prospects and what they had to say is here if you are interested to look.

His point totals have never been outstanding but he is a very fast skater that will see time in the top six at some point this year. Korpikoski is four years removed from his best season, a year in which he was able to light the lamp 19 times and chip in with 21 assists  for a total of 40 for anyone that can’t figure that out for themselves. Not great  totals but he is an effective two-way player that will see plenty of time on the PK units and provides a veteran player to help lighten the defensive load for his likely center, Anton Lander, not that he has shown that he isn’t capable of handling his own in the defensive zone.

The player that is most likely to benefit from having Lauri on his line will be the right-wing. In my estimation that is likely to be Nail Yakupov to start the season although I think that will switch by Christmas with Yak moving up to take Purcell’s slot on the McDavid line.

With his best year far in the rear-view mirror there is little if any reason to expect a bounce back year from the Finn I think a reasonable expectation for  Korpikoski is that his offensive output will remain roughly the  same as the last two years. My prediction is that we will see him come close to double digits in goals with 9 and right near his career high in assists with 20. 29 points in the Pisani role is a decent amount and won’t be all that he brings to the table.

Matt Hendricks

This guy was one half of the best defensive zone duos the Edmonton Oilers have had in a very long time. Along with Boyd Gordon they faced the worst  zone starts and the toughest competition on a nightly basis. The fact that they did it and not only survived but managed to pot 8 goals along with 8 assists is awfully impressive!

Hendy is never going to be an offensive juggernaut but that isn’t what he is paid for. He is here to take the worst the other team can throw at him and to still come out smiling on the other side. In his two years as an Oiler he has filled this role admirably and although Gordon has been traded to bring in the “Pisani” role, General Manager Peter Chiarelli has filled his vacant slot with veteran center Mark Letestu through free agency.

The biggest concern for me going forward is that McLellan has never used a defensive shutdown line like Edmonton did under Eakins and Nelson. He may prefer to roll his lines and have the potential for offense from all four lines. The reason I am thinking that is a possibility is Gordon being sent out in favor of Letestu who while not being quite the demon on the dot is more capable offensively.

The other member of this trio will totally depend on usage. Unfortunately some of the time will be used to ice Luke Gazdic, while he seems likes a nice guy is not much of an actual hockey player. Offensive rushes tend to die on the sticks of players of his ilk. The majority of his time will be played with either Rob Klinkhammer, if in a defensive shut down role, or rookie Leon Draisaitl if they are looking to add more offense to the line. I personally don’t see Leon being on the opening night roster but that will have more to do with salary cap ramifications than actual ability.

With all that being said it is time to lay my pride on the line for the fourth time tonight and make my hypothesis known. Hendy has only broken the 20 point mark once in his career and that was pre-lockout before the offense dried up. Other than that anomaly his career high was 16 points, just like last season. Not great but still adequate given his usage in years past. I think Hendricks is just too damn tough and too hard-working for him to not put up similar totals next year. My best guess would be 6 goals and 7 assists for a whopping total of 13. Solid totals for one of the biggest leaders on the team. Not to mention one of my favorite Oilers.

Now  that we have covered the four most likely players to play down the left side I want to know what all you Beer Leaguers think? Hit me up in the comments or on twitter, @cooke_rob, and share your best guesses with me. I love the chance to talk hockey so as long as you keep it respectful we can talk anytime!  Whether your totals are way different from mine or not I think we can all agree that the team shouldn’t be hurting for offense from the left side any time this season.

Thanks for reading and come back again when we will look at the production coming from down the middle. If you like our site head over to the t-shirt shop and pick up one of the fancy shirts we have designed. Beauty shirts at a great price! You can’t go wrong!!!

Cheers

Rob

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Rumors

Edmonton Oilers Trade Proposals from Fans

Let’s be honest with ourselves here. We tend to overvalue the players on our team and undervalue players on other teams and most time to the extent of side-splitting hilariousness. So I’m going to try and make this a weekly thing where I look for the most ridiculous or realistic fan trade proposals regarding the Edmonton Oilers circulating the oilogosphere and comment on them. I imagine a majority of them will come from HFBoards. So without further ado, there are some humdingers!

This first one is what I call “The Ditka”.

To Arizona Coyotes: Nail Yakupov and the #16, #33, #56, and #78 picks this year
To Edmonton Oilers: The #3 overall

The gist of the deal is obvious. Reunite McDavid with Strome or add Noah Hanifin… Boy that’s a lot to give up for one guy. On the other hand, what are the odds that any of those other picks have the same impact in the NHL as a Strome or Hanifin?

The second deal on the docket is as follows:

To Edmonton Oilers: Alexei Emelin and the rights to Magnus Nygren
To Habs: Teddy Purcell (50% retained salary) and a 2015 4th round pick

I don’t know… I like a good hard hitting defenceman as much as anybody else and God knows that Purcell is as useful as tits on a boar but $6m seems like a hard hit to take to get rid of Purcell.

The third proposal:

To Edmonton Oilers: Tom Wilson
To Washington Capitals: Nail Yakupov

There’s a part of me that really likes this. Is Wilson the modern day Dave Semenko?… Could he be? I think there’s one foregone conclusion though, someone on the right wing is going to get moved sooner or later and this team needs someone willing to let the other team know that roughing up our stars will not be tolerated.

Proposal #4:

To Edmonton Oilers: Derek Stepan, Cam Talbot, Carl Hagelin and Kevin Klein
To Rangers: The 1st overall pick

So the guy that wrote this believes that he’s helping the Oilers so much by getting them a top center, a goalie, a complementary winger and a “solid” defenceman at the minimal cost of Connor McDavid… What I don’t understand is how people come up with these ideas sometimes. Would you deal that for Mario Lemieux or Gretzky, Crosby or Ovechkin? Crikey! What have any of those Rangers done lately?

Here’s another beaut!

To Edmonton Oilers: MA Fleury and Evgeni Malkin
To Pittsburgh Penguins: The 1st overall pick and Ted Purcell

I guess Edmonton’s salary cap is infinity times a million and thanks for being nice enough to take Purcell….

This proposal has me thinking:

To Edmonton Oilers: John Gibson, James Wisniewski, 3rd round pick (2015)
To Anaheim Ducks: Nail Yakupov, Ben Scrivens, and the #16 pick this year.

As I said earlier, one of Yakupov or Eberle will be moved at some point and the Oilers could use player like Wisniewski on the point. Gibson is sure to be a helluva goalie sooner than later but do you make this deal knowing that the Oilers defence is strife with overpaid veteran defenders?

Here’s another with the Rangers:

To Edmonton Oilers: Dan Girardi and Cam Talbot
To Rangers: The #16 and #56 picks this year and Nikita Nikitin

There’s something to really like about this one. Dan Girardi would be a perfect fit on the Oilers and a great presence for the younger players like Nurse. Could he be the kind of partner that would calm Justin Schultz’s game down?

The last proposal of the day:

To Edmonton Oilers: Alex Edler, Eddie Lack, and Zack Kassian
To Vancouver Canucks: The #16, #33, #56 picks this year and Martin Marincin

I guess the overall point of this charity is so that the Canucks can accelerate their rebuild?… What? Because inter-division rivals LOVE helping each other out…

Well I hope you enjoyed the read. I had a good laugh going through the trade boards over at Hockey’s Future in order to bring this to you. If you heard any proposals that have made you piss your pants, feel free to send ’em over in the comments below!

Before you go, I’d love it if you headed over to the Beer League Heroes T-Shirt shop and took a gander. Maybe pick one up and help keep this team afloat if you’re so inclined. We’d really appreciate it!

Thanks for reading!

– BLH