Tag Archives: Patrick Kane

The Butterfly Effect in the NHL: How a Missed Goal Changed the Edmonton Oilers’ Destiny

In the annals of NHL history, certain moments stand out as turning points that forever alter the course of the game.

One such moment occurred on January 4th, 2007, during a game between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers. With just 13 seconds left on the clock and his team leading by one, former first overall pick Patrick Stefan found himself with an opportunity that seemed foolproof—a chance to seal the game with a simple tap-in goal. Little did anyone know that this seemingly inconsequential play would reverberate through the years, reshaping the future of the NHL in unexpected ways.

At that critical moment, Stefan’s missed goal had far-reaching consequences. To understand the full impact, we need to delve into the context. Stefan, once heralded as a franchise player, had struggled to live up to the monumental expectations set for him after being drafted first overall in 1999. His career had been marred by injuries and unfulfilled potential. However, on that fateful night, it wasn’t just about Stefan’s individual disappointment; it was about the entire league.

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The Oilers, a team in transition, capitalized on Stefan’s error, tying the game and eventually forcing overtime. In an unforeseen twist, this single point proved pivotal in the NHL standings. The Oilers and the Chicago Blackhawks ended the 2006-2007 season with 71 points each. Thanks to the tiebreaker, the Oilers secured the sixth-last position, a seemingly insignificant detail that would soon alter the course of hockey history.

Had the Oilers not received that crucial extra point, they would have finished fifth-last with 70 points and possibly allowing Edmonton to secure the first overall pick in the 2007 NHL draft. This turn of events meant that the Blackhawks had the opportunity to select Patrick Kane, a decision that would set the stage for a new dynasty.

Kane’s arrival in Chicago, alongside Jonathan Toews, transformed the Blackhawks into a powerhouse. Their combination of skill, determination, and chemistry propelled the team to multiple Stanley Cup victories, ending a 49-year championship drought and setting a new standard for success in the NHL’s salary cap era.

Meanwhile, the Oilers grappled with disappointment and struggled to find their footing. Despite having numerous first overall picks in subsequent years, they faced a decade-long playoff drought. However, their lack of success eventually led them to another generational talent, Connor McDavid, who would later become the face of the franchise and one of the most gifted players in NHL history.

In a twist of fate, Stefan’s missed goal not only defined his career but also shaped the destiny of two franchises. It illustrates the butterfly effect in sports, demonstrating how a seemingly insignificant event can create a ripple effect that alters the entire landscape of the game. As fans, we are left to wonder: how different would the NHL look today if Patrick Stefan had successfully tapped that puck into the net? It’s a question that encapsulates the unpredictability and magic of hockey, where the outcome of a single play can change the course of history.

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(11/12/20202) BLH Trade Rumors and NHL Speculation feat. Pettersson, Kane, Gaudreau, Hoffman, and More!

Speculating from an Edmonton Oilers fan’s perspective, BLH comments on the latest NHL rumors featuring players such as Elias Pettersson, Patrick Kane, Johnny Gaudreau, Mike Hoffman, and more!

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The News and Rumors

  • Georges Laraque: Suggested that the Canadiens could offer up Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Cole Caufield, and a 2021 first-round pick for Kane who the Blackhawks would actually retain salary on.

BLH’s Thoughts: There are some rumors going around that a player’s trainer said that Kane could play elite hockey until he was into his 40s and still be an effective player playing at 50. The Chicago winger is 31yrs old now, I imagine the Habs would love to get him for another 19 years for three high-end prospects. 

Reckon Kane would be a big fan of the taxes in Quebec?

Laraque is also saying that Marc-Andre Fleury wants to come to Edmonton even though the Oilers are on his 10-team no-trade list (allegedly)… 

Wait. Is this just a stunt to get more eyes on him because he’s looking to have an exhibition bout with Mike Tyson?

  • Tracey Myers (NHL.com): “I’m sure there are many Philadelphia fans who would love to see Gaudreau wearing a Flyers jersey; he was born in Salem, New Jersey, about 40 miles south of Philadelphia. But if I’m the Flames, I’m not ready to send Gaudreau anywhere yet.”
    • “I know the Blues found enough offense when Tarasenko missed all but the first 10 games of last season after having shoulder surgery. But if a player like (Mike) Hoffman is available, why not try to sign him to replace at least some of Tarasenko’s production?”

BLH’s Thoughts: Look, Johnny Guadreau will be traded before his next contact expires. Book it. The rumors are getting heavier as his deal nears expiry and Calgary needs a shake-up now that the team belongs to Matthew Tkachuk. 

The funny thing is, the Flames are going to trade Gaudreau and then Tkachuk is going to leave after his deal is up. Calgary will go from two elite LWers to zero! 

Go Oilers Go! 

  • The Athletic: On Elias Pettersson, “The young Canucks superstar will play out the final year of his entry-level contract during the 2020-21 league year, and thereafter will likely be exorbitantly expensive. His second contract is going to be complicated and is something of a cap management atom bomb that the club will have to work around in seeking to upgrade their supporting cast.”

BLH’s Thoughts: Just watching Benning and the Canucks ownership pinch the pennies with their coach is enough to grab a lot of popcorn in anticipation of the Pettersson negoations. Vancouver is going to have to walk away from three or four really solid NHL players to get their franchise man under contract and I don’t see him taking any “hometown” discounts either. 

  • Swisshockeynews.ch: According to Expressen’s podcast ‘Sanny and Svensson’, Carl Soderberg is looking for a well-paid deal in Switzerland. There’s also interest from Sweden, however. Malmo would be interested in bringing him home.

BLH’s Thoughts: Bob Stauffer (630CHED) has been talking about some European NHLers staying in Europe and avoiding the big haircut, escrow, and deferred portions of their paycheck for this upcoming shortened season. I always thought he was talking about Mikael Granlund but Soderberg fits the bills too I suppose. 

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Sources Say: Pitlick, Foo, and No.22 (Plus Patty Kane, What?!)

Finally had the time to sit down and have a good conversation with one of my sources and I’m happy I did. Lots of Oilers talk was tossed about but I’ll keep this brief.

As I do each time I report what I’m told, please don’t shoot the messenger. I just let you guys/gals know what I’m told. There’s probably a less than %5 chance that any of this happens and things change all the time. If you don’t believe me, send me the batting average of McKenzie, Dreger, LeBrun, etc. So take it all with a grain of salt. If anything it’s great entertainment and excellent water cooler talk.

The conversation didn’t start on an Oilers note though:

  • “Patrick Kane is on the verge of being shopped by the Hawks. They need cap space. HOLY SH*T!!!”
  • “Everyone that isn’t named Toews is for sale!”
  • “(Hawks) Fans will hate whatever happens. That’s just the way it is. But if the Hawks want to remain a successful team, they need to make those tough deals, deals that they’ll probably lose, to make things work. Hossa shouldn’t have received his current contract, Anisimov, Panarin, the list goes on. Awful cap management. Now they’re paying for it and they’ll most likely have to dismantle their team. That Hawks team won’t win the Cup for a very long time now. 
  • “In a cap system, it’ll be very hard to trade those contracts.
  • “I expect VAN, LA, or ARZ to be in the mix.” 

Well, I didn’t expect to be talking about the Hawks but that’s some pretty big news given that the rumors started quite recently some big move(s) that Chicago would be making.

My thoughts about this are that they’ll get the most for Kane and trading him would allow the Hawks to remain competitive. I mean, what if they could get Max Domi, Dylan Strome, and a 1st rounder out of Arizona? Patrick Kane is still one of the best, if not THE best, winger in the game, he’s still young and moving him to a club like Arizona, where they have a plethora of great young talent coming through their system as well as the need for a face for their franchise if they choose to stay in Arizona or relocate to, I don’t know, Seattle.

Anyways, I don’t cover the Hawks nor do I really enjoy them as a team. So let’s move on to the other tidbits.

  • “Vegas will claim M.A. Fleury and flip him. The rumor at the moment is Sam Bennett going back to Vegas for Fleury.”

Makes sense. Bennett has loads of potential but doesn’t seem to be fulfilling that in Calgary. Perhaps a move to a club where he’d be more of a focal point would benefit him. And Calgary needs a keeper. Plus the fanbase down the QE2 is always complaining about how the Oilers got all the 1st overalls…

I asked, How much is there to the Buchberger/Eberle rough relationship Friedman was talking about this week?

  • “Pretty accurate. I don’t see it happening. Friedman knows what he’s talking about.” 

That was a follow up on a very popular post regarding the Eberle/Isles rumors being snuffed out by Friedman I did up this week.

I asked about who the Oilers are leaning towards in the 1st round of the draft coming up.

  • “I’ve heard Kailer Yamamoto.”

I also inquired as to the McDavid/Draisaitl contracts.

  • “Shortly after July 1st probably and they’ll sign together.”

The word on Kris Russell.

  • “Hearing $4.5Mx4. Oilers could be willing to go as high as $4.25M for 4 years. We’ll see.”
  • “They’re also looking at Cody Franson on a 1-year deal worth $4M to cover for Sekera but will try to sign him for less.”
  • “$4M is fair market for a top 4 dman.”
  • “They want Kris Russell back.” 

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I’m torn on this. I think this says a couple of things regarding Darnell Nurse’s development. Either they’re not happy or skeptical on how it’s going or they’re willing to pay Russell over $4M to play bottom-pairing minutes at some point in his deal. Either way, it’s a point of concern.

One has to wonder if Chiarelli is open to moving Nurse to expedite the process of winning the Cup. I wouldn’t.

As far as Franson, I’ve heard that he’s not the most mobile defender in the league and $4M per seems like a lot of skrilla to give a guy who can’t pivot well and is a tad soft.

What about Spencer Foo? Is he coming to Edmonton?

  •  “He is. He’s coming to Edmonton.”

On Tyler Pitlick,

  • “I expect Pitlick to get another contract. Another 1-year deal to take Hendricks’ spot because Hendricks is done in Edmonton. Pitlick has had the injury bug like Klefbom. He needs to come back with more muscle and a bigger body. That way, He doesn’t get hurt as much. That’s exactly what Klefbom did.

    At the end of 15/16, Klefbom was around 205lb and at the start of 16/17, he was around 217lbs. The result, Klefbom finally had a full season.”
  • “I hope Nuge bulks up too. His lack of upper body strength is killing him. An extra 5lbs of upper body muscle would make a HUGE difference.”

I really hope that this is true and it really happens. Pitlick showed last season that he can float throughout the entire lineup and he can score on basically any line. He’d be a perfect replacement for Matt Hendricks too. Although, I hope the Oilers can keep Hendy on in some capacity. Maybe working with the prospects down in Bakersfield.

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Is Connor McDavid getting fatigued because of too much ice time?

Connor McDavid, Age, and Fatigue

I made this comment in my OilersNerdAlert EDM-DET post-game yesterday:

McDavid isn’t really McDaviding very much. … Prior to this game, McDavid had the fourth highest ice time in the league for a forward. All the players ahead of him are veterans. Maybe the idea of playing the crap out of him is not a successful long term strategy, especially for a 19-year-old player who was a featured high ice-time player in the World Cup before the season started.

Da Fax

Let’s look at some facts in that regard:

  • McDavid is averaging 21.4 minutes of all situations ice time (ATOI) per game this season. He’s still fourth in the league after last night’s game. (All data sourced from corsica.hockey)
  • The next nearest Oiler forward is Jordan Eberle at 18.5 minutes, nearly three minutes per game less than McDavid.  That’s a very reasonable 55th in the league for forward ice time.
  • There are three forwards ahead of McDavid in ATOI.  They are: Ryan O’Reilly (25 yo, 22.4 mins), Patrick Kane (27 yo, 22.2 mins), and Anze Kopitar (29 yo, 21.8 mins). The #1 ATOI forward in the league is 6 years older and plays just one minute more per game.
  • Of the top 10 forwards for icetime, not including McDavid, the average age is 28 years.  The youngest are 23 years old (Scheifele and Trocheck).
  • A quick scan of the top 50 ATOI forwards shows only a handful of young players (Gaudreau, MacKinnon, Forsberg, Barkov). McDavid is the only teenager on the list. (note: can’t guarantee that as this is eyeballed)

The Immortals

Now, we all know that McDavid is an extraordinary player, and I don’t doubt he can tolerate more icetime for his age than ordinary mortals. And the team is generally not very good without McDavid on the ice, so the temptation to play him every minute you can must be overwhelming.

But let’s not forget, he’s just 19 years old – still a growing boy. (And given he’s three years from his likely peak, his age is something that should absolutely terrify the rest of the league)

So this kind of icetime load has me worried, especially since it looks to my eyes like McDavid hasn’t been able to easily shed the hooking and holding the way he did early in the season.

Overtraining or Ubertraining?

In my day they called long-term fatigue from too much training volume ‘overtraining’ – do they still use that term? While this could just be an ebb in the regular pattern of ebb and flow, it might not be. The end result of overtraining is often injury, and that’s something the Oilers must protect McDavid from at all costs!

Not sure if this is anything real, but I believe it is something that should be given attention. I hope TMc and the Oilers training staff are watching closely.

BLH’s 2016/17 NHL Predictions

The 2016/17 NHL season is right on our doorstep and what better time to make predictions that hours before the puck drops! I just want to keep this short and sweet because I need to get over this jet lag thing and you’ve probably already read a million prediction blogs so far… Bon appetite!

PS: I hate jet lag…

AWARDS

Hart: Connor McDavid (EDM)
*Homer pick* – This is THE homer pick isn’t it?

Art Ross: Pat Kane (CHI)
*Homer pick* – McDavid… Of course!

Maurice Richard: Steven Stamkos (TB)
*Homer pick* – Eberle… Cause you know he’s the only other guy scoring for Edmonton, right?

Vezina: Braden Holtby (WAS)
*Homer pick* – Can you do a homer pick here? Talbot I guess…

Norris: PK Subban (NSH)
*Homer pick* – Adam Larsson because we all know shut down dmen with Norris’ these days 🙂

Calder: Auston Matthews (TOR)
*Homer pick* – Drake Caggiula because he’s looked a sh*t ton better than Puljujarvi so far.

STANDINGS

Atlantic Metropolitan Central Pacific
Tampa Bay Washington Nashville San Jose
Florida Pittsburgh Dallas Anaheim
Boston Philadelphia St.Louis Los Angeles
Detroit* Carolina* Chicago* Edmonton*
Montreal N.Y. Rangers Minnesota Calgary
Ottawa Columbus Colorado Arizona
Buffalo N.Y. Islanders Winnipeg Vancouver
Toronto New Jersey 🙂

STANLEY CUP FINALISTS

Eastern Conference Finals: Tampa Bay vs. Washington

Western Conference Finals: Dallas vs. San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals: Tampa Bay vs. San Jose

Winner: Tampa Bay

Conn Smythe: Victor Hedman (TB)

There you have it. Nothing fancy.Just the raw predictions from BLH’s crystal keg. And in typical Oilers fashion, a coach they could’ve hired takes his team to the Cup finals and wins it all. Thanks a lot Craig and Kevin!

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