Tag Archives: Teddy Purcell

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rob Cooke

The Oilers Salary Cap Situation

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A few days ago, well July 25th to be exact, the New Jersey Devils re-signed young defenseman Adam Larsson to a six-year contract extension with a 4.16 million dollar cap hit. Why am I telling you something that 95% of NHL fans already know about?  First because this is roughly the deal that I see Oscar Klefbom signing between now and next July 1st. Larsson has a slightly better draft pedigree but has had a hard time making the NHL as a full-time player. Klefbom appears to be the real deal and should again take a big step forward in his development this year under new coaching and with less pressure to be the best defenseman on the team. With slightly less minutes at evens and roughly the same zone starts that he was gifted last year Klefbom should be effective and improve on last season. The second reason that I mentioned the Larsson contract is because with the idea of re-signing Klefbom long-term before next summer it got me thinking about the Oilers cap position moving forward.

It is a little tricky when discussing the Oilers salary cap situation, currently nhlnumbers.com, brought to you by our good friends over at OilersNation, shows that there is 3.144 million in available space. That is not a lot of space to begin with and when we factor in bonuses we are possibly up to two million dollars over the cap this year. That is two million over with Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl playing all or some of the season in the AHL this year as well. The bonuses that I am including are only for McDavid, Klefbom, and Reinhart. I am not saying that I think Reinhart makes the team but just going by what the Nation network has on their site. The inclusion of Reinhart is besides the point this year anyways. The issue is going over the cap with bonus dollars.

When a team goes over the cap with their player bonuses that amount is deducted from the cap total the next season as a penalty. Normally that isn’t a big deal but with the cap likely staying at roughly the same level or rising only very slightly every dollar will count in the 2016/17 season. It will be the first year in the new building and playoffs are damn sure expected at that point. We will need to bring in whatever players we will need to be competitive in the new building. In reality though it sure would have been nice to go on one last playoff run in Rexall before they close the old barn down.

When we enter the off-season next summer we will see a fair amount of dollars come off the books just through contracts expiring that will likely not be renewed. We all know who isn’t going to be in Oilers blue when Rogers Place opens their doors. Teddy Purcell and his 4.5 million dollar cap hit will likely either be  moved to another team at some point this season or will walk as a free agent come July 1st. Another 4.5 million will come off the books when the Oilers will say good-bye to Nikita Nikitin next summer as well. I know that Ron MacLean seems to think Nikitin will bounce back and be a stud defenseman for the Oilers, he said so yesterday on Oilers Now, but I don’t see it happening and even if he does I think he would need to take a massive cut to his salary in order for that to happen. The other two free agents that are both likely going to be allowed to hit the open market are Rob Klinkhammer (love that name!) and Eric Gryba. At $725,000, Rob Klinkhammer isn’t going to free up a ton of space but will likely be moved to bring up an internal option. Gryba will go if for no other reason than Griffin Reinhart will likely take his spot in the very near future and $1.3 million is a decent chunk of change to tie up in a number 7 or 8 D-man. The final free agent that will more than likely not be returning after the upcoming season is the Professor, Ben Scrivens. If Cam Talbot, who we will get to later takes the starting job and runs with it then we will likely see Mr. and Mrs. Scrivens move on down the road. On the plus side if Scrivs is moved or allowed to leave upon contract expiration that will add another $2.3 million to the pot.

We may also be able to remove the $3.9 million cap penalty that is Justin Schultz should the team finally decide that what he brings to the team isn’t even close to be worth what he is paid. If I am Peter Chiarelli I would have Jultz on a very short leash this season and would feel no remorse at all for stapling his ass to the bench when warranted. I could see a scenario where Justin could spend a few games in the press box observing early on if he doesn’t appear to have made some sort of step forward with his defensive game. The one thing to keep in mind is that Todd McLellan is a wizard with the power-play so we can hopefully expect at least a return to his former levels in that aspect.

For the sake of argument lets say that all these players are either moved at the deadline or allowed to leave via free agency this summer. Returns from trades we will consider as all being futures for this exercise. So with these six gentlemen removed from the roster for the grand opening of the new joint we would have a little bit of walking around money to throw around come July 1st. With roughly $17.2 million in cap space being opened up there is the possibility to go big game hunting next summer. This is where we need to bring up Oscar Klefbom and his new deal. Like I said I would like to see him signed to roughly the same deal as Larsson, five or six-year term with around 4 million as the sticker price. With his current deal paying him only 1.244 million, if he hits his bonuses, we would still see an increase of 2.56 million year over year. So when we remove that amount we are left with roughly 14.64 million in space.

There is other people who will need to be included in next years line-up that are currently unaccounted for as well. At some point both Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse are going to force their way onto this team and will need to be included in the cap hit as well. So out of that 14.64 million we can take 5.1 million, again assuming all bonuses met, and we are left with 9.54 million in cap space. Not a bad amount to find a top pairing defenseman but unfortunately there is one more player internally that will be looking to take a big bought out of our free agency dollars.

Cam Talbot has one year on his deal and has the possibility of being the biggest value deal in the league should he perform as expected. If Cam comes to camp takes over the starter position and never looks back we could be getting one hell of a bargain this year. Next year not so much. Just because I am in an optimistic kind of mood today lets say that Talbot is everything that the stats folks say he is and a little more. Lets say he finishes the season top ten in adjusted save percentage and goals against average. What does that do to our goalie with the 1.45 million dollar price tag? Well since he is an unrestricted free agent next summer we know that it will not be cheap to get him locked up should his season go well. Would $5 million be a realistic number to ask for a top ten starter in the league? I don’t think so. Dubnyk re-signed with Minnesota to a 4.33 million dollar cap hit deal after his Phoenix-like performance last season, so should Talbot be able to have a year like Duby did last season or even close to it we are looking at a decent wage increase for sure. So we take the 1.45 off the 5 and are left with a 3.55 million dollar increase to Talbot’s salary. That would still leave the team with roughly six million in cap space to use come free agency and big game hunting.

Obviously what I wrote doesn’t take into account possible trades and other roster moves that can free up space but we are not in quite as rosy a position next summer as some seem to think. The big name free agent defensemen that are possible to be available next year are going to be to rich for our blood I fear. Mark Giordano, the Flames captain, is rumoured to be asking 9 million per year over a long-term deal so that is a dead issue for sure. No way in hell can Edmonton afford that kind of hit or term. We may need to move out some more salary next summer if we really want to acquire a top pairing defenseman. Who knows how the year will shake out though.

What do you think? Do we the cap space that we will need next summer to bring in a real number one defenseman or are we going to be waiting to see what Nurse, Klefbom, and Reinhart are going to be? Let me know in the comments or on twitter, @cooke_rob.

Thanks very much for reading and be sure to come back next time Beer Leaguers! And As always make sure to visit the best little Beer League T-Shirt shop on the great wide web for all your Beer League Heroes and 16-Bit NHL Superstars shirt needs.

Cheers!

Rob

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Jack Gruninger, NHL

Signing Franson Without Using a Buyout

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There has been a lot of talk about the Oilers using their upcoming buyout window to buyout the contract(s) of Nikitin, Purcell, and/or Ference. The logical explanation for buying out a contract would be to make room for the addition of a defenceman either via trade (Seabrook perhaps) or through free agency (Franson or Ehrhoff). Personally, I believe Franson makes the most sense for the Oilers. He would fill the role that Justin Schultz is in now more effectively than Schultz, and would be cheaper and cost no assets to acquire, unlike Brent Seabrook. While Ehrhoff would also be a decent, and likely even less expensive option, Franson adds depth to the weakest organizational position, right-handed defencemen.

I took a look at how the Oilers could potentially add Franson, on a 6 year, $30m contract ($5m AAV) without using a buyout, and also did some armchair GMing to determine the cap implications for the next few seasons:

[table id=11 /]

In this scenario, instead of buying out Nikitin’s contract, I have him being buried in the minors, freeing $0.950m in cap space and resulting in $3.550m in buried cap hit. The additional $0.050m in buried cap space is from Anders Nilsson’s contract. I believe that Scrivens will beat out Nilsson for the backup job. Chances are, if Nilsson was sent to the AHL, he and the Oilers would just agree to mutually terminate his contract, allowing him to return to Europe, or he would be loaned to a team in Europe, allowing the Oilers to retain his rights. I have Andrew Miller making the team because I don’t think he would clear waivers and I thought he played very well in his limited time here last season. Another very important thing to note is that Draisaitl, Reinhart, and Nurse are all in the AHL. Of course, I doubt that any of them will spend all season in Bakersfield, but in this case this will be a development year for all 3 for most of the season. The addition of Franson reduces the need to bring Nurse or Reinhart into the NHL too quickly. The “Maximum” amount referenced in the table refers to the cap hit that would exist if all bonuses were achieved. In this scenario, we would see a $0.988m overage carried into next season:

[table id=12 /]

In this case, I only listed the bonuses that fit under the bonus cushion as “bonuses” in the final cap calculation. The rest, approximately $4.234m worth of performance bonuses are included in the “Cap Hit” to show that the Oilers would not be above the upper limit. Current salary cap projections have the cap staying about the same due to the low Canadian Dollar, so we’ll assume the cap remains at $71.4m. This means that the Oilers would be carrying a $1.988m bonus overage into the 2017-18 season, at most.

Let’s take a look at some of the roster moves that lead to this roster for 2016-17. Amongst forwards, I have Teddy Purcell, Rob Klinkhammer, and Andrew Miller leaving via free agency, and Lauri Korpikoski being buried in the minors. Essentially, Draisaitl replaces Purcell, Slepyshev replaces Korpikoski, Pakarinen replaces Klinkhammer, and an additional forward, from either within or outside the organization replaces Miller. On defence, Ference is bought out of the final year of his deal, Nikitin and Gryba walk as UFAs, and the Oilers either trade or let Justin Schultz walk. Klefbom is re-signed to a long term deal at $4.5m a season, while Reinhart, Nurse, and a defensive prospect, I have Oesterle, join the big club. In goal, Scrivens walks as a free agent and is replaced by Brossoit on a 1 year bridge deal. Cam Talbot is re-signed to a 4 year, $5m AAV deal.

In the 2017 offseason, I figure that the Oilers will have some tough roster decisions to make, with the large bonus overage and several key re-signings coming up such as McDavid and Nurse. I came up with this for the 2017-18 season, using a projected salary cap of $73m:

[table id=13 /]

First off, the two major moves are trading Nail Yakupov and Mark Fayne. Mark Fayne would be traded because with the development of our young defencemen, he would no longer fit. It is the last year of his deal so the team should be able to find a taker. I chose to trade Yakupov because he is a RFA at this point and I don’t believe the Oilers would be able to re-sign him to a reasonable amount. The desired return would include a young right-handed defenceman to play on the third pairing with Reinhart.

For some of the more minor moves, I have Draisaitl signing a bridge deal similar to Ryan Johansen’s. Anton Lander re-signs to a deal around 3-4 years with a $3m AAV. Pakarinen re-signs to a bridge deal and Yakimov joins the team full time on a small one-year deal. Hendricks walks as an UFA. On defence, Reinhart is re-signed to a long term deal. It’s difficult to project his AAV until we know what he can provide to the team but I have put it at $4m. Laurent Brossoit is re-signed to a $2m AAV bridge deal for a couple seasons. This roster carries a $0.386m overage.

Finally, into 2018-19, where we’ll predict a $76m salary cap:

[table id=14 /]

Here the last year of Benoit Pouliot’s deal is traded as well as Cam Talbot, who is replaced by Laurent Brossoit. McDavid and Nurse are both re-signed to long term deals. Yakimov and Slepyshev are re-signed to bridge deals, and the Oilers are left over with $810k in cap space.

Now of course, the chances of everything I have said happening to the exact are very, very low. There are a lot of things we are relying on to happen here. We assume that Draisaitl, Nurse, and Reinhart all pan out, which is likely to happen, but we also assume that Pakarinen, Yakimov, Slepyshev, etc. become useful NHL players. While this scenario outlined what would happen in the seasons following the Oilers just signing Franson or obtaining another defenceman at similar value, a similar thing would likely happen if Nikitin had been bought out and replaced. Unless the cap increases significantly, if the Oilers do decide to add another defenceman to the team, there will have to be players traded to make room.

As for the quality of the team itself, here is a possible lineup for the 2018-19 season:

Hall – McDavid – Draisaitl
Lander – Nugent-Hopkins – Eberle
Slepyshev – Yakimov – Chase
? – ? – Pakarinen

Nurse – Sekera
Klefbom – Franson
Reinhart – ?
Simpson

Brossoit
? (Possibly Laurikainen)

This looks to be a very good team. That first line could be absolutely deadly, and there is an excellent defensive core, assuming all players develop to their potential.

One last thing that’s important to mention is the contracts for all of these players. It’s difficult to predict some of these contracts. Even for Franson himself, I have him signing for $5m, but he may want more. There are many bridge deals that could come back to haunt the team, but ultimately, if the Oilers want to achieve the most depth possible they may have to look an less expensive bridge deals as a way to open cap space.

Thanks for reading. Also, if you haven’t seen them yet, the “8-Bit Heroes” shirts are now available at Nation Gear. Thanks to our partners at Oilersnation.com for these awesome shirts.

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Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Rob Cooke, Rumors, Trades

Edmonton Oilers to use buy-out window?

 

What to do? What to do? Will the Edmonton Oilers use the buy-out window presented to them?The twittersphere is exploding with opinions on what Peter Chiarelli will do this weekend. Is he going to buy out Nikita Nikitin, captain Andrew Ference, or Teddy Purcell? There are arguments to be made both for and against using the buy-out option on any of these three players. I had seen Ben Scrivens mentioned as well but that option is easy to dismiss. His 2.3 million dollar cap hit is below the minimum amount required for buy-out.

I read a tremendous piece this morning from Jonathon Willis about using the buy-out and he is totally in favour of doing it. He was then on the OilersNow broadcast with Bob Stauffer, and discussed the idea further among a lot of other things. Jonathon is a very smart man and his reasoning is solid. If you haven’t you really should, here is his article. I won’t spoil the fun of reading by talking about his piece too much but he does make a solid argument for proceeding.

The only real valid argument for keeping either Ference or Nikitin is that this spreads out the cap hit and keeps them on the book for longer. Obviously the first choice of the franchise would have to be trading the pair of them but that would involve in retaining half of Nikitin’s cap hit so would only save us 2.25 million. The big issue with trading Andrew Ference is his no-trade clause. He has the ability to block any move other than the buy-out.

I would imagine that you have all noticed that I didn’t discuss Teddy Purcell when discussing the argument to keep and that is because unlike the first two Purcell can still be a useful player in the top 9. He isn’t fast by any stretch and can be beaten one on one with speed, but he can still contribute offensively and provides a calm veteran presence to a very young team. He is expensive at 4.5 million but is in the final year of his contract. Unless Chiarelli and McLellan are absolutely sure that Leon Draisaitl  is a better option I think Purcell will finish out the contract as an Oiler.

That leaves us with only the two defenders to look at then. I don’t pretend to know the collective bargaining agreement as it is written and will turn to either the above mentioned Jonathon Willis or Speeds as he calls himself on Twitter, @hockeysymposium in case you want to give him a follow. Both are fairly well versed on the CBA and generally are willing to answer questions if needed. According to the CBA Nikitin and Ference will have different parameters in their buy-out situation. Nikitin is a straight forward two-thirds of his salary over the twice the term. So that would translate to a 1.5 million dollar cap-hit over the next two years. Ference, due to age, will be a little different. His breakdown would be over twice the term still but the dollars break down differently than in a younger player. From what I read on it, and don’t quote me, for Andy it would be .67 million this season and then 1.67 million for the next three years.

To me the first choice would be Nikitin. While he is likelier to rebound from last season due to age it comes down to length of term for me. If I am the general manager I don’t want the player that is bought out to be on the books in three or four years. In the third year of the Ference option we would have four key restricted free-agents that could all possibly be looking at raises of decent to high amounts. Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl, Griffin Reinhart, and Anton lander will need to be re-signed at that point and will eat a decent amount of cap space to be sure. The more space available at that point the better the chance that we keep our core young players together for longer. We want to emulate the Chicago franchise in theory. We want to become contenders and stay  there for an extended period of time. To do that we will need these players signed.

This is where the argument against using the buy-out would come in to play though. Even if they do decide to use it that will leave 1.5 million dollars on the Oilers cap-hit if Nikitin is the choice which he more than likely is. Not a ton of money but we do need to keep in mind that Schultz and Klefbom will be both be looking for another deal. Oscar will be looking at a substantial raise should his progression continue as it has to this point. Justin Shultz is a story for another time, his future with the franchise is very much in doubt and I would not be at all surprised if he is moved out at some point over the next year. The decision will likely come down to what the owner and management have for expectations this season. If playoffs are expected then I think they move Nikitin prior to Monday afternoon. Not going to guess if they will trade or buy him out but if they want to be in the second season they need to clear cap space and a roster spot for a better player. If they feel they are still a year away from being able to hang with the big bad teams in the Western conference they will likely retain both players and let their contracts expire to have maximum cap space next summer. One way or another we will have our answer by this time Monday.

It is my opinion that after all the changes that have been made already this off-season that the mandate is to get back in to the play-offs this year. I don’t believe that Daryl Katz finally decided to bring in better management options for them to sit on their laurels and not do everything they can to bring success back to this storied franchise. The only question is if there is a trade partner out there that would be willing to take Nikitin for half of his salary? Some seem to think that a team like the Arizona Coyotes would have interest in him at half his salary in order to get to the cap-floor. My belief is that if there was a trade to be made that it would have been by now and that there is a small possibility that this weekend will end with Nikita somewhere else through trade. Buying him out is likely the only option if they want the additional cap space to add another free agent before training camp.

What do you think? Will the Chia Pet use his buy-out option after passing on it the first time? Did he look to the trade market first and realize this is the only option left available to him? If the team does use the buy-out who is the likely target through free agency? Let me know what you think in the comments section. I always try to reply to each and every comment my blog receives and enjoy interacting with other fans. All I ask is that you be respectful. And hey while we are at give me a follow on twitter, @cooke_rob. Help this lowly basement dwelling blogger get to 200 followers please! Thanks for reading Beer Leaguers. Until next time.

 

Cheers

Rob

 

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rob Cooke

Projecting the Edmonton Oilers: Centers

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Last time we talked I ventured into the realm of player point projections for the 2015-6 season. In my exuberance I got a little carried away on Taylor Halls totals. I know that 90 points isn’t likely a realistic number given that the Art Ross went to Jamie Benn last season with 87. Now I am not saying that it is impossible for Hall to get that high of a total just highly unlikely. The X-factor for how well Hall will produce is going to be the phenom. No I am not  talking about the Undertaker for all you WWE fans, although the ‘Taker has always been my favorite wrassler. Of course I am talking about Connor McDavid. We all know he will be an amazing player but what we don’t know is just how amazing and how soon. If the McSaviour steps in and immediately starts kicking ass and taking names then there may be the possibility that we will see Taylor Hall mentioned as an Art Ross candidate. Not likely but still possible. With that out of the way it is time to get to the projections for the centers.

Before I am going to start we will need to figure out just who these players are. We know that this position is finally a strength for the organization after years of not having 4 guys that can play in the world’s toughest league. This season we have three proven pivots in Nuge, Letestu, and to a smaller degree Lander. Lander came a long way last season in proving he belongs at this level and can be a complementary offensive player. His two-way play has always been up to par but with virtually no offense at the NHL level until this past season he was viewed as a bit of a tweener. Too good for the AHL but not good enough for the NHL. For whatever reason he took a massive step forward last season and the third line center position is his to lose in training camp. Obviously the fourth center that will be lifting asses out of seats for years to come is Connor McDavid. He is a guarantee for top 6 minutes from the outset and will get a ton of power-play time and a big zone start push. The kid has excelled at every level he has ever played so there is little reason to doubt that the trend will change to start the year. Now that we have got our list of competitors let’s get to it. Or as the immortal Jim Ross used to say, “Business is damn sure about to pick up!” I love that guy…

RNH

When we talk about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a player it is easy to forget that he is still only 22 years old and hasn’t even hit his peak years yet. As insane as it is to think, Nuge will still get better as a player. He is already a very solid two-way player but with another year of experience Ryan will likely be even better than before. How much better is open to debate but what isn’t open for debate is his importance to this team. Last season he proved that he can push the river without Taylor Hall to his left and is able of controlling the game when he is on the ice. There isn’t one part of RNH’s game that I feel is lacking. I would like to see him shoot the puck more but that would be the only real issue I would have with the kid. After missing 20 games in his rookie season, a year in which he was robbed of the Calder, Ryan has been a fairly durable guy even though there was some question in his draft year about whether his slight frame could handle the beating he would get. Over the past three seasons Nuge has only missed 16 games. Pretty damn good for a guy that people thought wouldn’t be able to handle the hitting at the NHL level. Last season we saw Nugent-Hopkins start with the usual suspects. Centering the top line with Hall and Eberle on his wings. When Hall was lost to injury Benoit Pouliot was given the opportunity to fill the enormous hole left in the absence of number 4, and he did fine. Well he did great but we don’t want to give Benny a swelled head.

After the post yesterday we already have our predictions for who Nuge will play with. My best guess is he will play a lot of time with Pouliot and Eberle. Their chemistry in the second half of the season was great and I don’t see any reason to change that now. So we know who the players but how are they going to be used? I doubt they will take a ton of defensive of draws, Lander and Letestu will likely get the lions share of those, but I doubt he gets the zone start push from previous years either. The cherry assignments are definitely going to the McDavid line. We need to put that kid in the best possible position for success. That means a ton of offensive zone starts and a lot of power-play time.

The question then is how much will this affect the output of the RNH trio? My answer to that is not a whole lot really. These three are going to see an over abundance of the neutral zone starts and should still be able to make hay out of it. Nuge last season played 76 games. He had 24 goals to go along with his 32 assists. The 56 points he totaled last season tied his career high while his 24 goals set a new career high. The best part about these stats is that his shooting percentage of last season is entirely sustainable. It is a higher than his career average to this point but if we remove the lock-out season where it was drastically low he is right around par for the course. Next season I see Ryan playing in pretty much every game or damn close to it and putting up very similar numbers despite a change in his zone starts. Nuge will hit the 20 goal mark again but little higher I think. I am going to say 22 goals and 33 assists. That’s 55 points for any of you that need a calculator to add it up. Are we concerned about this total? Not really, I think if Nuge an top 50 next year we are in good standing.

Connor McDavid

There is nothing I can say about this 18 year old kid that hasn’t already been said by someone. If you want some background information on this kid there is scads of articles out there to fill your little McD fix. I’ve also already established that I think he will play mostly with Taylor Hall on his left and if I have to pick one for the right it would likely be Teddy Purcell. Well Purcell until Novemberish, then I see Yakupov taking his rightful place in the top 6. So what will a season of Connor look like? This kid is going to do some amazing things I tell you. Fantastically amazing things. This kid is so good that he will be able to do things that we just don’t think are even possible! I know that we have to temper our expectations for this coming season but that is easier said than done. Every time Connor has come to a new challenge has not only completed it, he has absolutely crushed it!

The speed with which McDavid plays is unlike anything I have ever seen before. He seems to always have another gear to go to. It doesn’t matter what opposition seem to throw at him he always seems to not only persevere but excel. It is so hard to be anything less than exuberant when we talk about Connor, and because of it I have seen some pretty outlandish ideas about how his season could go. One post I read said that he would not only win the rookie scoring race but he would also win the Art Ross trophy as league leading scorer. There is a good chance the guess is right about the rookie race although guys like Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart will want to have something to say about that before all is said and done. So before we get to point predictions for the second coming of Gretzky I will make a few guesses about some accolades he will win this year. I think that yes he will be the rookie scoring race winner this year. No I don’t think he will win the Calder. Not that I don’t think he will be deserving but the league seems to not want Oilers rookies to take home that honor. Maybe it is our punishment for drafting first overall four times. Who knows. He will be at the all-star game and will make the all rookie team. I also think that McDavid will be the Oilers MVP this season. Those are my predictions, if I am right I expect glorious applause and champagne showers but if I am wrong I will categorically deny ever making any such statements.

After we have all dried our tears as the realization dawns on us that our favorite son likely won’t receive the proper respect that is due him. We can continue on safe in the knowledge that one day soon we will get to see Connor take us back to a long drink from Lord Stanley’s Cup. Now that I have warmed you to the cockles of your heart maybe even to the sub-cockles area, as Dennis Leary once said, we can move on to the point predictions. If we use the stats from the past season and adjust it to NHL levels using Gabriel Desjardins NHL equivalencies it would mean translate to roughly 21 goals and 35 assists. Of course when I figure those totals out I am pro-rating his numbers over a full 72 OHL season before I converted to NHL scoring estimates. So as we know McDavid played 47 games in the OHL last season and had 120 points. 44 goals and 76 assists. When we use that ad figure out the totals over a 72 game season it would look something like 67 goals and 116 assists. Those are absolutely insane numbers! Do I agree with the totals that Mr. Desjardins’ ratio suggests? Not necessarily. I think that he likely exceeds those numbers. He will receive a huge zone start push and will play a lot on the power-play which should hopefully be humming along under McLellan. My personal best guess for his production this season is 24 goals and 40 assists. In all reality I would be happy with anything above 50 points but I think Connor will have higher expectations for himself than I do. He is an intense competitor that won’t accept anything less than his best 100% of the time. What are your guesses for this young superstar?

Anton Lander

Anton Lander took some major strides last season once he finally had a head coach that trusted him and believed in charge of his usage. Lander finally developed the offensive consistency that media and fans alike have been hoping for since he first arrived in Edmonton. He played with a variety of players last season and that might have helped his numbers a little bit. Taylor Hall is one hell of a line-mate to have if you are expecting to provide offensively. In his 38 games last year Landy managed 6 goals and 20 assists. Fantastic numbers for a third line center, which is exactly where he will fit into the roster again this fall. The players on his wing this year won’t necessarily be of the same caliber as Hall but with guys like Yakupov and Korpikoski there should still be a decent contribution to goal total this year. For all we know the other wing could be filled with Leon Draisaitl. That would be a nice line to get to watch for the season!

This player to me is the hardest to forecast his numbers for next year because in all honesty I am not entirely sure of who he will play with. My best guess could be way off and that will have a big impact on his numbers. While his point totals are definitely a very important part of the picture there is a lot more to Anton Lander then goals and assists. Anton brings considerable two-way skill and decent face off skills to a team that sorely needs more defensively responsible players.

My projection for Lander is that his scoring levels will remain roughly where they were last year with 12 goals and 30 assists. Really nice numbers for a 3rd line center and depending on who his wingers are the numbers could move in either direction. I wish that I were more confident with my guess on this player but I am not at all. I hope that I am right or even pleasantly surprised as any measurable drop in scoring could be seen as a step backwards in his development and could spell the end of his career as an Oiler.

Mark Letestu

Mark Letestu is one of the newest Edmonton Oilers, joining the franchise on the opening day of free agency. He was signed to a three-year contract with a cap hit of 1.8 million dollars and will fill the vacant fourth line center position once filled by defensive stalwart and faceoff guru Boyd Gordon. I will confess I don’t know very much about the guy and don’t profess to know. For my requirements I read a few different sites breakdown of who the player is and what he will bring to the team. The most notable being from our friends over at the Oilers Rig. In the piece Alex Thomas, aka @alex_thomas14, gives his two cents on both Letestu and Sekera. If you haven’t read the piece you really should as Alex is one of the young shining up and comers in the Oilers blogging arena. I respect his opinions and his writing is generally very in-depth and informative. Should you have missed the article it is available to read here. I wouldn’t be a very good Beer Leaguer if I didn’t also mention that our very own Beer League Hero had an excellent post of his own  the subject that I recommend you to read to get a better idea of the player. If you have a hankering for more information read that piece here.

We can expect he will fill a defensive role for the most, similar to that of Gordon last season. His wingers will more often than not be Matt Hendricks and Rob Klinkhammer with Luke Gazdic making the occasional appearance. The trio is not going to be expected to do a lot offensively but will be tasked with taking the worst zone starts and a lot of time in their own zone. He has been adequate in a bottom six role in Columbus and will bring a lot more offense to the line up then Boyd Gordon could have ever hoped to. My guesstimate is that he will end the season with somewhere between 20 and 25 points and that is about as close to a point total that I am going to go on a player that I don’t know.

Those will be the four most used centers that we will have over the course of the 82 game schedule and it is a far deeper talent pool than a year ago. For the first time in a long time we will have competition at camp at every position, center included. It is an exciting time to be a Oilers fan for sure and I can only see it getting better from here on out. I can’t wait to see what the future brings for this fast young team! Thanks for reading and as always I want to hear from you! In the comments or on twitter, @cooke_rob. Next time we are going to look at the situation on right wing where there will be plenty of competition at amp for the four available slots. Remember if you like our great little site visit our T-shirt shop and get your very own Beer League Heroes shirts!

 

Cheers,

Rob

Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rob Cooke

Projecting the Edmonton Oilers: Left Wing Edition

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This is the slow time of year from now until training camp for the vast majority of NHL teams. Prospect camps are wrapping up around the league and the players re heading home to start their off-season training programs in hopes of earning a roster slot in the fall. There is not a whole lot to look forward to over the next eight to nine weeks. One of the things that get’s me through the long summer month’s is reading the various Oilers blogs for any tidbits of news that will fill insatiable lust for all things Oilers.

There are so many fantastic writers out there that I can’t possibly name all of them. The one that has always stood out for me and I read his posts twice a day is Mr. Allen Mitchell, known in the blogosphere as Lowetide. I thoroughly enjoy his work even though I occasionally agree with his ideas. I will say however that out of all the Oilers related writers, both mainstream and otherwise, I would likely say that my ideas most closely align with Lowetide.

Now I know you are asking me where the hell I am going with this as it is getting border line creepy, so let’s get right down to the task at hand. This morning I seen on lowetide.ca that he has posted his official precursor to his annual RE series. I know that most Oilers fans have likely already read the article but for those that haven’t you can find it here. I highly recommend reading the entire series as his unique question and answer series that he does for each player is truly excellent! He is goes into a lot of depth with each player and covers things like line-mates, ice time, and of course the ever popular point projections.

For my purposes I am not going to go into anywhere as much detail as Mr. Mitchell. I am going to separate the series into six articles in total. One to cover each player position and a final one to cover the new coach. Today we are going to start with the left wingers. This is the easiest position for me to start with because the depth of actual NHL players on the left side makes it easy to figure out who will actually be on the opening night roster. In my estimation the four left wingers that will put on the white, orange, and blue on October 8th in St. Louis will be Taylor Hall, Benoit Pouliot, Lauri Korpikoski, and Matt Hendricks. There really isn’t anyone that will be able to challenge any of these players for the spot coming into camp this year. So lets dive right in and see what is what.

Taylor Hall

Since his draft in 2010 Taylor Hall has been a force to be reckoned with when flying down the ice with the puck on his stick. He has the ability and skill to embarrass a lot of defencemen and puts fear into goalies as he is barreling down on them. Right now before McDavid has played an official NHL game Taylor is without a doubt in my mind the best player the Oilers have. Obviously adding a generational talent like Connor changes that dynamic but he is still one of if not the best left-wing in the entire league.

Now before I will get into my best guess as to where he will end up point wise it is best if we take a look at his history and who it is likely we will see him playing with. His history for the most part is fantastic. In two of the last three seasons Hall has averaged just over a point per game. The exception being last season where he only played 53 games and was only able to chip in 38 points with 14 goals. His goal total was a little lower than his usual due to a lower than average shooting percentage and playing through various injuries throughout the season. Hall when healthy and raring to go is good for about a point per and that trend should continue next season regardless of who he plays with.

Thus far in his career Hallsy has spent the majority of his time on Ice with fellow young stars Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins but with his injuries last season and Ebs, Nuge, and Pouliot forming an excellent line with great chemistry he was moved to different spots in the line up and that affected his totals as well. This coming season I think we will see Taylor play the vast majority of his minutes with McDavid and an interchanging right-wing. In my opinion they are going to want to start the season with a veteran presence on the line with good two-way skill. The most likely candidate to fill the spot is Teddy Purcell. He may not be the fastest skater but he also wouldn’t be a liability in the offensive zone and he could lighten the defensive responsibility on McDavid.

With those two playing with Hall that allows Coach McLellan to keep the top line that finished last season together to handle the toughest competition. Obviously playing with a rookie center would mean a plethora of offensive zone starts for Hall and company and with all that talent it is hard to not expect amazing results.

My prediction for Taylor Hall is that his shooting percentage will return slightly above average with such a gifted player passing the puck to him. As far as point totals go I see Hall playing 75 games and eclipsing his best year to date by hitting the 30 goal mark for the first time and will add 50 assists. It will be hard not to hit those totals when you are sending and receiving passes with Connor McDavid.

Benoit Pouliot

Last season was a break out year for Benoit Pouliot. He was given the opportunity to play first line minutes for an extended period of time and he excelled at it. Despite missing a big chunk of games due to a broken foot Pouliot still set a career high in goals, bulging the twine 19 times in only 58 games. His previous best was 16 with the Bruins a few years back but that was in 16 more games than last season. Along with the 19 goals he added 15 apples which puts him only two points off his career best in 22 fewer outings. Any way you look at it that is just great news. To be fair Pouliot did have a much higher than average shooting percentage but given an 80 game performance he still wold have broken his personal highs in both goals and assist.

A large portion of his playing time, at least after he returned from injury, was spent alongside numbers 93 and 14. Definitely two terrific players entering the prime of their careers and Pouliot didn’t look a bit out of place. I see McLellan trying this trio out together in the pre-season and excluding a complete loss of the chemistry they showed last season  will hopefully be the starting line on opening night.

While Pouliot doesn’t have Hall’s offensive gifts he is more responsible defensively and isn’t afraid to go into the dirty areas with the big boys of the western conference. Should Benny play a full healthy season and spend a lot of time with the same players as last season I think we will see even higher offensive totals. Like I said his shooting percentage was dramatically higher than his career average but some of that can be attributed to playing with better players then he has before.

Next season my prediction for Pouliot is 78 games played, all in a top six role. His point totals will also go up accordingly with his bigger role from the very start of the season. I see Benoit netting 22 goals and 20 assists for 42 points. While not a huge total it is still more than respectable for a guy that has never hit 40 in his career.

Lauri Korpikoski

Next on the list is one of the newer Oilers and a player that I fully admit I have not seen play a ton of hockey. For a look at what his career has looked like point wise and a brief overview of the player in general I went to Elite prospects and what they had to say is here if you are interested to look.

His point totals have never been outstanding but he is a very fast skater that will see time in the top six at some point this year. Korpikoski is four years removed from his best season, a year in which he was able to light the lamp 19 times and chip in with 21 assists  for a total of 40 for anyone that can’t figure that out for themselves. Not great  totals but he is an effective two-way player that will see plenty of time on the PK units and provides a veteran player to help lighten the defensive load for his likely center, Anton Lander, not that he has shown that he isn’t capable of handling his own in the defensive zone.

The player that is most likely to benefit from having Lauri on his line will be the right-wing. In my estimation that is likely to be Nail Yakupov to start the season although I think that will switch by Christmas with Yak moving up to take Purcell’s slot on the McDavid line.

With his best year far in the rear-view mirror there is little if any reason to expect a bounce back year from the Finn I think a reasonable expectation for  Korpikoski is that his offensive output will remain roughly the  same as the last two years. My prediction is that we will see him come close to double digits in goals with 9 and right near his career high in assists with 20. 29 points in the Pisani role is a decent amount and won’t be all that he brings to the table.

Matt Hendricks

This guy was one half of the best defensive zone duos the Edmonton Oilers have had in a very long time. Along with Boyd Gordon they faced the worst  zone starts and the toughest competition on a nightly basis. The fact that they did it and not only survived but managed to pot 8 goals along with 8 assists is awfully impressive!

Hendy is never going to be an offensive juggernaut but that isn’t what he is paid for. He is here to take the worst the other team can throw at him and to still come out smiling on the other side. In his two years as an Oiler he has filled this role admirably and although Gordon has been traded to bring in the “Pisani” role, General Manager Peter Chiarelli has filled his vacant slot with veteran center Mark Letestu through free agency.

The biggest concern for me going forward is that McLellan has never used a defensive shutdown line like Edmonton did under Eakins and Nelson. He may prefer to roll his lines and have the potential for offense from all four lines. The reason I am thinking that is a possibility is Gordon being sent out in favor of Letestu who while not being quite the demon on the dot is more capable offensively.

The other member of this trio will totally depend on usage. Unfortunately some of the time will be used to ice Luke Gazdic, while he seems likes a nice guy is not much of an actual hockey player. Offensive rushes tend to die on the sticks of players of his ilk. The majority of his time will be played with either Rob Klinkhammer, if in a defensive shut down role, or rookie Leon Draisaitl if they are looking to add more offense to the line. I personally don’t see Leon being on the opening night roster but that will have more to do with salary cap ramifications than actual ability.

With all that being said it is time to lay my pride on the line for the fourth time tonight and make my hypothesis known. Hendy has only broken the 20 point mark once in his career and that was pre-lockout before the offense dried up. Other than that anomaly his career high was 16 points, just like last season. Not great but still adequate given his usage in years past. I think Hendricks is just too damn tough and too hard-working for him to not put up similar totals next year. My best guess would be 6 goals and 7 assists for a whopping total of 13. Solid totals for one of the biggest leaders on the team. Not to mention one of my favorite Oilers.

Now  that we have covered the four most likely players to play down the left side I want to know what all you Beer Leaguers think? Hit me up in the comments or on twitter, @cooke_rob, and share your best guesses with me. I love the chance to talk hockey so as long as you keep it respectful we can talk anytime!  Whether your totals are way different from mine or not I think we can all agree that the team shouldn’t be hurting for offense from the left side any time this season.

Thanks for reading and come back again when we will look at the production coming from down the middle. If you like our site head over to the t-shirt shop and pick up one of the fancy shirts we have designed. Beauty shirts at a great price! You can’t go wrong!!!

Cheers

Rob