Part 2 of my summer feature, Prospect Profile, finds us examining a trio of players in the Oilers system that will be playing collegiate hockey this upcoming season. In the past, the Oilers have dipped into the US college system on a fairly regular basis to find players, whether it be via free agency in the case of Justin Schultz or Marc Arcobello, or by using a mid round draft pick, as they did twice in 2012 when they drafted both Joey Leleggia and John McCarron out of college, both of whom we’ll look at on a future date.
Aidan Muir
Following his draft year in 2013, Aidan Muir joined the Indiana Ice of the USHL for one season, before moving on to Western Michigan University. The Oilers took Muir in the 4th round that year, with the 113th pick, adding more depth to the forward position. Muir looked to have some impressive offensive potential, as the left winger amassed 14 goals and 41 points in his 51 games with the Ice in the 2013-14 season, helping the team capture the USHL championship, the Clark Cup. His offense seemed to dry up a bit though following his jump the NCHC the following year, as Muir only turned in 15 points in his 36 games as a freshman. Perhaps that can be contributed to it being his first year of collegiate hockey, playing against older and stronger opposition.
Unfortunately, Muir was not at the Oilers development camp earlier this year, so I wasn’t able to get a look at him on the ice. I also had a difficult time finding any video of him, aside from a highlight reel goal he scored while with Indiana, which you can find below.
Based solely on his numbers since being drafted, it’s somewhat difficult for me to profess to know what kind of player Muir is, or when Oiler fans can expect to see him have an opportunity to play in the NHL. As it stands now, my personal opinion is the Oilers aren’t going to be in any rush to see Muir leave college to go pro. It would more than likely benefit both sides to allow Muir to finish his hockey career at Western Michigan, and hopefully gain some more size and strength to his 6’0″, 212 lbs. frame. This upcoming year, and likely the season after, are going to be key for Muir to show the Oilers he still has an offensive touch, and is deserving of an ELC from the club.
Tyler Vesel
I can’t really say Tyler Vesel stood out for me too much at the development camp. In all honesty, he was a smaller forward who got lost in the group of smaller forwards in attendance, standing at 5’9″ and weighing in at 182 lbs. Drafted in the 6th round of the 2014 draft, and I don’t mean for this to be a knock against Vesel, but he epitomized everything that was wrong with the Oilers scouting staff at that time. Too often they drafted undersized players who were supposed to have the potential to counter that with skill. With that, there is definitely a skilled player in Vesel, although he could be a project for the Oilers to develop.
The Oilers drafted Vesel out of the Omaha Lancers of the USHL. In the year leading up to his draft, Vesel notched an impressive 33-38-71 in 49 games. Vesel then took a similar path to Aidan Muir, jumping to college hockey the next year with the University of Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks. Vesel though, seemed to carry some of his offensive flare with him into his freshman year, going 8-15-23 in 39 games, and gaining some big game experience in the Frozen Four, although the Mavericks lost in the semi-final
For Vesel, drafted as an overage player, he needs a breakout year with the Mavericks this season to really catch the attention of the Oilers. Even so, while I think there is a very good chance the Oilers will sign him to an ECL, Vesel will find himself in tough to stand out in an organization that drafted so many similar players.
Evan Campbell
Another pick from the 2013 draft class, the Oilers selected Evan Campbell following his last year of Junior ‘A’ hockey with the BCHL’s Langley Rivermen, where he scored 66 points in 51 games, including 20 goals, making him the first NHL draft pick in franchise history. His first year with the UMass-Lowell River Hawks saw him contribute only 9-2-11 in his 33 games. His numbers the next season started to climb however, as Campbell increased his totals to 12-15-27 in 34 games. There’s every reason to believe those numbers will continue to increase as Campbell readies himself for the 2015-16 season, his third at UMass-Lowell.
Like Tyler Vesel, I didn’t see anything overly memorable from Campbell at the development camp. He’s an average sized player, who could stand to add some weight before trying to make the leap to pro. One thing that could very well work against Campbell is the path he’s taking in his hockey career. Not to say there is anything wrong with it. By all accounts, the BCHL is a very tough league to play in, and the opportunity to get a top education from a US school while playing hockey is an excellent opportunity. What I mean when I mention the path Campbell is taking, is that there are players in the Oilers organization who have a higher pedigree, and have faced stiffer competition in their development that Campbell has.
Already at 22 years of age, there’s every reason to believe the Oilers are going to let Campbell play out his college commitment before deciding on him one way or another. If his numbers continue to increase, perhaps he gets noticed enough to get a shot in Bakersfield. My opinion is he’s going to be another prospect who falls just short of expectations, like so many players taken under the Stu MacGregor regime.
The Oilers partially based their acquisition of Mark Fayne on information gained from analytics. James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail referred to Fayne as an “analytics darling.” (Not a term I would use, although somewhat common in the analytics lingo.) He was one of several players the Oilers acquired based on advanced statistics, which included David Perron, Teddy Purcell, Benoit Pouliot, and possibly Rob Klinkhammer. Because Fayne was considered a top-4 defenseman, a lot was expected from him. After all, he did play top-pairing minutes with Andy Greene in New Jersey.
At the beginning of the 2014/15 season, then coach Dallas Eakins put Fayne up against the toughest competition, along with Martin Marincin. Fayne (and Marincin) did not flourish. He, along with the Oilers, crashed and burned by December. Even after Eakins was fired, and Todd Nelson was brought on as interim coach, Fayne never did recover. He continued to struggle mightily. “But that’s because he faced the toughest competition,” one may interject. Another could argue, “He’s the best defender on one of the worst defense corps in the league.” A few many even believe that Fayne played well, or as well as can be expected on a bottom-dwelling team. Finally, an embittered fan might explain Fayne’s performance with a more succinct, yet familiar refrain: “Because Oilers.” All these explanations could have kernels of truth to them, or not. Does the data support any of these explanations? Going the way of the scientist, I wanted to investigate the data and see what I could conclude.
My approach was scientific in that I began my data quest with questions (i.e., hypotheses) and then attempted to figure out how, or if, the data answered these questions (i.e., supported or didn’t support my hypotheses). My questions included: Did Fayne feign struggling this season? (Did he actually struggle or am I seeing things that are not there?) If his struggles were real, what was the influence of the toughness of competition and quality of teammates? Assuming that his under-performance cannot be blamed on his competition or teammates, was their anything in his time with New Jersey that could have been a red flag? Was there some bit of data that should have given management (and analytics-inclined fans) a sign as to whether he could handle top-pairing, or even 2nd pairing minutes?
Scoring Chance +/-
I’ll begin with the most direct evidence by borrowing data from David Staples of the Edmonton Journal, who diligently tracks scoring chances from every game. Specifically, he records whether players contributed to offensive scoring chances or made errors in scoring chances against. He then computes a plus-minus of scoring chances. (Originally, the metric was named after Roger Neilson, who created it.). A positive value shows a player contributed to more offensive scoring chances than to errors when defending against scoring chances, and a negative value shows the opposite. The complete Oilers 2014/15 season can be viewed here. Fayne’s scoring chance differential was -2.52 per 60 minutes, which was 2nd worst among the Oiler’s regular defense; slightly worse than Ference, whose differential was -2.44. Only counting his errors on scoring chances against, Fayne averaged 7.76 errors per 60 minutes. This was actually better than most Oilers, except for (former Oilers) Petry and Marincin. Hence, his limited offensive contributions to scoring chances was the main culprit in his negative scoring chance differential. (Spoiler alert: His limitations on offense are a pattern throughout my analysis.) In any case, I submit that this is the first piece of evidence that Fayne under-achieved.
Passing Metrics
A second piece of direct evidence is passing data collected by Ryan Stimson and his colleagues for his Passing Project. These passing and shot attempt metrics are measures of a player’s offensive contributions that go beyond what is collected by the NHL. The metrics in the graph below include:
CC% and CC/60 = Corsi Contribution (or Shot Attempt Contribution), which are individual shot attempts, primary passes leading to shot attempts, and secondary passes leading to shot attempts. These are given as a percentage (i.e., proportion of shot attempts a player is involved in when on the ice) and per sixty minutes. These metrics tell you how much offense goes through that player while on the ice and also how often they contribute.
Composite SAG and SG represent the total number of shot attempts and shots a player generated from both primary and secondary passes per sixty minutes. SAG/60 is solely for the player’s primary passing contributions.
Entry Assists represent the number of controlled entries a player assisted on. This is determined by the number of passes in transition (prior to entering the offensive zone) that was recorded for each player.
SC Contribution% and SCC/60 are identical CC% and CC/60, but represent only the scoring chances a player was involved in. Passing data for scoring chances was combined with War-on-Ice’s scoring chance (link to definition) data to arrive at a player’s total number of scoring chance contributions. SC SAG/60 represents the number of scoring chances set up from a player’s primary passes.
Here is the way I read this graph. The top one-third percentile (67%+) is top-pairing defenseman range, 33%-66% is 2nd pairing, and below 33% is bottom-pairing. Reading from left to right, Fayne’s offensive contributions involving shot attempts (first 4 columns), he sits around the 2nd-pairing range. He is also 2nd-pairing for entry assists (i.e., controlled passes into the offensive zone). That’s one thing I remembered from watching games. That he had a solid first-pass on defensive zone breakouts. Where he drops off rapidly is his contribution to quality scoring chances, especially as a set-up guy. He was 10th percentile in primary passes leading to scoring chances. He then again sits around the 2nd-pairing range for scoring chance contributions, which includes scoring chance shots, as well as primary and secondary passes.
Is this evidence that Fayne under-performed? Depends on what we were expecting. As a top-pair, he under-achieved. As a 2nd-pair, he performed as expected, except when it came to setting up quality scoring chances. Surprisingly, Sekera is not that strong in setting up scoring chances either. Based on this, Sekera paired with Fayne might not be a good idea. Unfortunately, Schultz appears to be the only defender particularly good at setting up quality scoring chances. Both Fayne and Schultz are right-handed, so it’s unlikely, although not impossible, to pair them.
Next, I look at indirect evidence, namely, group measures such as a team’s shot attempt and scoring chance metrics. Based on these measures, especially the relative metrics, we make plausible inferences or guesses about a player’s contributions. I begin with Scoring Chances (SC) and high-danger scoring chances (i.e., shots from the slot area) provided by war-on-ice. These metrics are especially useful because they account for shot quality; locations and shot types that greatly increase shooting efficiency. (Unless otherwise stated, I present these scoring chance measures per 60 minutes.) We know that about 20% of shots from the slot (High-Danger) go in. Suppressing shots from the slot, then, has much more impact compared to shots from the blue-line, which only have a 4% efficiency rate.
Starting with suppression of quality shots, and relative to 170 defenders who played at least 750 minutes, Fayne’s High-Danger Scoring Chances Against (17.16) and Scoring Chances Against (28.39) ranked 144th and 132nd, respectively. How do these metrics compare to other Oilers’ defensemen? Fayne’s High-Danger SC Against is 3rd worst, ahead of Martin Marincin (19.13) and Keith Aulie (21.29). With respect to general Scoring Chances Against, Fayne’s rank is better, but nothing special. When Fayne is on the ice, the Oilers are no worse, or better, when it comes to suppressing quality shots. In other words, the team’s defense is average with Fayne involved.
But when comes to the Oilers generating scoring chances with Fayne on the ice, the lack of quality shot production is glaring. Compared to other regular defenders, he ranked 169th in High-Danger Scoring Chances generated (11.12) and 167th in Scoring Chances generated (28.39). I’m hesitant to say this, but the numbers are pretty clear: Fayne’s scoring chance generation metrics are among the worst in the league. This wouldn’t be so bad if his defense compensated for this lack offense, but it doesn’t.
I could look at other numbers, like shot attempts for and against, to support the idea that Fayne struggled, but I think what I showed so far is sufficient. With the Fayne on the ice, the team’s defense in suppressing quality shots is par for the course , which isn’t saying much. What’s worse is that the team’s ability to generate quality scoring chances is severely hindered. So how does this all translate into team scoring? Based on shots from all areas, war-on-ice provides a Net Goals metric for each player. With Fayne on the ice, the team’s expected Net Goals was -0.41 (per 60 min.), which when multiplied by his time-on-ice, is -7.41 net goals. Only Aulie was worse (-0.54 per 60 min.).
Quality of Competition
The Oilers were expecting a solid top-4 defender, which his SAT% metrics with New Jersey suggested, but his Oilers’ numbers presented so far don’t support this notion. One explanation could be that Fayne faced the toughest competition on the team, which he did. However, as I have shown in previous posts (e.g., Gryba vs. Marincin & Sekera vs. Hamilton), a player’s quality of competition can be controlled. Specifically, using David Johnson’s WOWY (With-or-Without-you) tables, a player’s shot-attempt differential (SAT%) can be measured against different levels of competition. Moreover, the player’s SAT% can be compared to other players across similar levels of competition. If Fayne’s SAT% took a big hit only against tough competition, then we could conclude that quality of competition was major factor for his struggles. Let’s see if that is the case.
In the graph below, I present Fayne’s SAT% at different levels of competition (i.e., quality of competition [QualComp] SAT% ranging from 56% to 46%), I also compare him to Ference, who many would consider bottom-pairing at best, and Schultz, who some consider bottom-pairing (like myself), but on a defensively weak team like the Oilers, he is passable as a second-pairing defenseman. Before the analysis, my expectation was that all three were dominated by the strongest competition (i.e., QualComp SAT% of 54% or greater), but would improve considerably as QualComp softened to 50%. Then as competition dropped to players with a negative SAT differential (QualComp SAT% < 50%), Fayne’s SAT% would become positive. Finally, I was hoping that Fayne’s break-even point–the level of competition that players hold their own with a neutral SAT differential (50%)–would also be at least 50%, if not more. Here is what I found (click on graph to enlarge).
The first thing I noted was that Fayne was more similar to Ference than to Schultz, which is to say, not that good. In fact, Schultz looks amazing in comparison, but I don’t want to get carried away. Even against weaker competition, Fayne barely kept his head above water. This is most clearly seen in his break-even quality of competition SAT% of 46.9%. Notable players at this level include Devant Smith-Pelly, Nate Prosser, and Dalton Prout. Smith-Pelly I’ve know because he sometimes played with Anaheim’s top line, but in reality, he’s a bottom-6 forward (ranking 310 out of 410 forwards with 1.12 points/60 min). Prosser is in a bottom-pairing role for Minnesota and Prout is Columbus’ 4th more used defenseman. Overall, then, Fayne is holding his own against the bottom-half of opposing teams. This is what I would expect from a marginal second-pairing defenseman, or a solid third-pairing defenseman.
Quality of Teammates
I was still questioning whether Fayne was really that bad. Could it be because he played more minutes, compared to Schultz, with weaker possession players? One combination is the Oilers shutdown line, mainly Boyd Gordon and Matt Hendricks, and the other is any line with Yakupov. (Unfortunately, Yakupov is the weakest possession forward among the Oilers’ regulars). Fayne played 188 minutes with Hendricks and Gordon, whereas Schultz played 120 minutes; so that’s a significant difference. But then he played 136 minutes with Yakupov and Roy, and Schultz played 174 minutes with them. Moreover, when these players were on the ice with Schultz, they had a better SAT% (50%) then with Fayne (46%). Does this mean Schultz is a better defenseman than Schultz? I’m not suggesting that, but as these metrics indicate, Schultz appears to do a better job at generating offense than Fayne, which helps compensate a little for his deficits on defense.
Who Fayne had as a defensive partner also impacted his SAT differential. With Nitikin, it was almost respectable: 49.6%. With Marincin, it was only 46.3%. (Fayne’s adjusted SAT% was 46.7%.) Seems that being paired with a rookie, especially against the toughest competition, did not help Fayne. A few players did help Fayne gain a positive SAT differential. The main possession driver was Eberle, who helped Fayne exceed 50% when he was paired with either Marincin or Nikitin. I could go on to describe other combinations, but fortunately Micah McCurdy has done this work graphically with what he calls WOWY diagrams. This one below, if you follow it carefully, shows how Fayne and his teammates’ SAT differentials changed depending on whether they were with him or without him. I’ll use Marincin (#85) as example to help you understand the diagram (click on the diagram to enlarge).
(You may want to increase your font size to for this part.) The bottom-right half, below the red line, is positive possession (good). Above the red line is negative possession (bad). Red-boxes indicate a teammate’s SAT differential without Fayne. If you look to the top-right and below the red line, you will see #85 boxed in red, which is Marincin (SAT% = 50.7%) without Fayne. Then if you follow the line from #85 to the left, you’ll cross the cut-off line (where SAT% = 50%), into negative possession (SAT% < 50%), you’ll see #85 in black. That’s Marincin and Fayne together with a 46.3% SAT differential. In short, Marincin appeared to be better without Fayne than with him, although that’s probably too simple a conclusion. If you look directly above this point (85 in black), you’ll see #85 in blue, which shows Fayne without Marincin. Fayne, then, whether he played with or without Marincin, his SAT differential changed very little. Still, there was small effect in defense with Marincin, namely, there were fewer shots against.
I’ve only explained the effect of one teammate. So as you can see, this elegant diagram packs a lot information into one visual image, which is very cool.
The main take-home message of this graph is how many teammates’ SAT% improved with Fayne (numbers in black). You can barely see it, but one player’s SAT% was positive and that was Pouliot (#67 in black, which is behind #67 in red). That’s it. If Fayne was driving possession, if players gained an advantage offensively or defensively with Fayne, we would see a pattern in which “red” numbers move from left to right toward “black” numbers. We don’t see that pattern, even for Pouliot. Pouliot’s SAT% is unchanged playing with or without Fayne. What we can conclude from this pattern is that Fayne is not a possession driver. Indeed, several player are worse with him than without him, which we can see in all the red numbers moving from right to left (e.g., Eberle #14 & Hall #4), from positive to negative SAT differentials.
What did Oilers management or analytics followers not know?
I believe I’ve shown that Fayne struggled as a top-pairing, and even 2nd-pairing defenseman this season. As per Staples’ scoring chance data, Fayne had the 2nd lowest plus-minus scoring chance differentials among the defense. Based on Stimson’s passing project data, Fayne’s passing effectiveness puts him in the range of an average 2nd-pairing defenseman. Notably, though, he rarely sets up quality scoring chances through primary assists. From the perspective of the Oilers’ generating and suppressing quality shots, the team (a) allows more (compared to the team’s average) High-Danger chances with Fayne on the ice, and (b) generates fewer high quality shots. Overall, the team’s expected Net Goals with Fayne on the ice is about -7. Is this due to his toughness of competition? I don’t see evidence for that . What I noted is that the team’s SAT differential with Fayne on the ice was not that strong even against weaker competition. As to the reciprocal influence of teammates, I noted that Fayne tended to reduce a teammate’s SAT differential. Some teammates improved Fayne’s SAT%, like Eberle, but given the one-way relationship, it supports the notion that Fayne is not a possession driver.
How did a strong possession player, a top-pairing defenseman on a strong defensive team like New Jersey, become what almost looks to be a possession liability? What did management miss (if anything)? What did the casual analytics follower miss? I say “casual” because Ryan Stimson, the Devils’ analytics blogger for SB Nation, was not a fan of Fayne and he had analytical reasons for that.
First, there is a hint that Fayne’s SAT% in 2013/14 was inflated by certain teammates, specifically, Greene and Jagr, who was the Devils’ best possession forward that season. When Fayne was paired with defensemen other than Greene (time-on-ice = 248 min), his SAT% fell significantly by over 10% to 46%. When Fayne wasn’t with Jagr, his SAT% fell by 5% to 52%.
Second, Stimson had collected passing data from the Devils 2013/14 season. (That was before he expanded the project league-wide.) One statistic that he focused on was a player’s passing efficiency, in particular, what percentage of shot attempt passes lead to shots on goal. He referred to this metric as Shot Attempt Generation Efficiency (SAGE). I think the idea is that if a player’s whose passes lead to more shots on goal, the player presumably has better passing skills, which, seems to me, involves awareness of the developing play, mobility, puck control, and accurate passing. In Stimson’s analysis of the Devils’ defense, Fayne had the lowest SAGE, which was about 30%. As Stimson concludes:
“Mark Fayne generated the third most shot attempts [compared to Devils’ defenders], but was the least efficient by a considerable margin. I think the Devils will be just fine in replacing him in the lineup. Certainly the volume [of shot attempts generated] was solid, but if there’s no efficiency, it’s just empty possession and inflating Corsi totals.”
I think Stimson’s findings provide a reasonable explanation of why Fayne did little to help the Oilers’ offense. We see confirmation of his passing inefficiency in the 2014/15 passing metric data, which shows a mediocre rate (45th percentile) of scoring chance contributions and an abysmal rate (10th percentile) of primary passes that lead to scoring chances. This 2013/14 data was not available to the public until after Fayne was acquired by the Oilers. Hard to say if Oilers management would have considered it seriously, given that it’s not official NHL data. Nonetheless, I think this is evidence that helps explain Fayne’s offensive weakness, which when combined with evidence of his SAT% being heavily dependent on Greene and Jagr, helps explain to some degree his struggles with the Oilers.
Recommendations
Based on this analysis, I offer the following recommendations. (1) Fayne needs to be on the ice with a defenseman who is a puck-carrier and who is more efficient in their passing, especially in the offensive zone. Although I noted above that Sekera might not be a good idea, he does fit the bill of being a strong passer. And Fayne is better than Sekera in executing passes that allow controlled offensive zone entry. In other words, they do appear to compliment each other. As a 2nd pairing combination, Fayne with Klefbom could also work. Klefbom’s passing strength is in the offensive zone, which may help offset Fayne’s limited passing efficiency. (2) Against opposing top-6 forwards, Fayne should not be paired with weaker (i.e., bottom-pairing) defenders, especially rookies and prospects. (3) Reduced time-on-ice with weak possession players, otherwise these line combinations can be a recipe for puck possession disaster. Here I’m thinking of the Oilers’ shut-down line (Hendricks, Letestu, & Klinkhammer) and any line with Yakupov. I do realize Fayne was often put on the ice with the shutdown line, but their SAT% together–47.8%– is simply not that strong. Being realistic, though, the Oilers depth on defense is still lacking. There might not be a better choice than Fayne for this kind of deployment.
This analysis took me much longer than expected. Part of the reason is that I was surprised by some of my findings. I wanted to make sure I wasn’t missing something important, or concluding too much from too little. As always, I’m receptive to new evidence and lines of reasoning. If you believe that I have missed important information or reasoned wrongly, please comment below. Also, if you have any questions or confusion about what I presented, please ask away. My underlying approach in this blog is to make analytics as accessible as possible to hockey fans. Thanks for reading.
I am a firm believer that for a team to be a consistent cup contender a team must have a core group of players that are kept together for as long as possible. That is a very easy statement to make without providing any additional information with it. A few questions that come up when talking about this subject are what is the core? How many players do you in include in the core? What positions make up the core? Who exactly are the core players for the Edmonton Oilers? And finally are all the pieces here?
The first question when we are examining the Oilers core is obviously what is the core? That question goes hand in hand with the question of how many players make up the core so I will answer both of those questions before we look at the Oilers group specifically. The core of a hockey team is the group of players that are most needed to be a successful NHL franchise year after year. Easy enough answer right? Well how many players does the core consist of? That is a tougher question because not all supporters of the core theory agree on how many players should be included and what positions they play. I have seen some suggest as little as five players make up the core while others, myself included think there should be a total of twelve players included.
The next question that needs to be answered is what positions does the core encompass. For me personally the positions that I include when I talk about a teams core are the top six forwards, the third line center, the top four defensemen, and the starting goalie. Simple enough right? There are plenty of other possibilities when discussing positions to include so if your don’t line up with mine it isn’t that big of a concern. Next question will take a little longer to answer, Who are the Edmonton Oilers core players?
Well if we follow the guidelines I set out above as to who is included it is fairly easy to see what players we include and where we need to add. The top six forwards are nearly set now, the only question mark being the second line right wing. By all rights that should be where Nail Yakupov slots into the line-up but until his two-way play improves significantly he can’t be relied on to a six winger. The other five slots are a given right now. Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be one of the best top two center pairings in the league in the near future so we are set there. Taylor Hall is one of the premiere left-wingers in the NHL right now and Benoit Pouliot proved last year that he is capable of being a consistent top six player on the left side. Jordan Eberle is a rock-star on the right wing right now, being as he is the only consistent offensive threat on the right side until Yak develops a little more. The third line center is being filled currently by Anton Lander and depending on what coach McLellan decides to do with Leon Draisaitl could be his slot long-term. If Leon is moved to the wing excels we could really have three scoring lines that are an actual threat to burn teams at any time. The forward group is in pretty damn good shape if I do say so myself.
The defense is still a big question mark for this team and I am positive that we don’t have four viable top four options on this team right now. Andrej Sekera and Mark Fayne will be the top pairing without a doubt in my mind. They will face the toughest competition on a nightly basis and will see a lot of time on the penalty kill for both and the power-play for Sekera. The second pairing is where things get a little hazy. Oscar Klefbom is a legitimate second pairing defenseman right now, likely a number four but will get better still, but as far as I can see there is no one on the team that can have the same said of them. Justin Schultz isn’t a top four guy on any other team in the league. He should be getting third pairing minutes at evens and first power-play unit minutes. There are other options long-term but none should be counted on to fill the role that would be required. Both Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart will eventually be solid top four defenders but are not there yet. Nurse especially has the potential to be the number one defender this team has so desperately been trying to find since the mass exodus following the glorious cup run in ’06. Still having three out of four already in the line-up with Fayne hopefully holding the spot for Darnell Nurse and Reinhart nearly ready to take on full-time NHL duties things look pretty good on the backend for the first time in a decade.
The starting goalie position looks to be filled for the foreseeable future. Cam Talbot looks like the goalie of the future for the Edmonton Oilers. He is a better than good bet to be a solid starting goalie for a long time in this league. Darcy McLeod, aka @woodguy, had some excellent posts about the goalie situation both prior to the draft and after. There were four pieces total that covered the situation with Talbot, the links for all of them are here, here, here, and finally here. All excellent articles to read, especially if you are still having concerns about how the whole Talbot situation will play out. He is a legit starting goalie, or very damn close to it.
We currently have ten out of the twelve players that we need to have a complete core. The other two should hopefully be here this year sometime. Either Schultz will actually start to play defense or one of the younger guys will take his minutes and run with them. Reinhart has significant skill with the puck and a howitzer from the point. If he works on his acceleration this summer he could be a possible option to take the minutes that Schultz currently will get. Up front this season is vital to the future of Nail Yakupov with the Edmonton Oilers. Should he fail to produce on a consistent basis the management may find that his brand of chaos on ice just isn’t worth what he provides offensively. If he isn’t significantly better than he was to start last season he will be moved at some point this year in favour of a bigger and stronger Leon Draisaitl. I’m not saying Yak is a bust or even that he will be but he has the potential to be a 35 plus goal scorer in the NHL for at least a decade if he can finally put it all together and find the net more often.
Smart money is on Yakupov figuring it out and putting together a season more akin to the second half of last season than the first half. I sincerely hope the kid does put it all together because for all of his chaos he really is delightful to watch play the game. His enthusiasm is inspiring and his love for the game is contagious. I look forward to the days where we get to see the exuberant cellies from years past and the giant smile on his face that gives everyone the warm feelies.
Here’s hoping I am right and that this core group remains together for a very long time. What say you Beer Leaguers? Do you have a different theory about the core? Different players included? Let me know what you think, either here or on twitter, @cooke_rob. Thanks for reading and be sure to check out the Beer League Heroes Shirt shop for all your BLH or 16-Bit Heroes shirt needs. Also stay tuned here for the launch of my own shirt design store, it will be coming very soon to a webpage near you!
It’s been a busy summer for not only the Edmonton Oilers but the Beer League Heroes too! I couldn’t be happier with the recent additions to both teams but I think all of the Oilers blogs have flogged the recent signings to death so I’d like to introduce to you the most recent signings here at Beer League Heroes.
Zach Laing (@loweded) – Former creator of OilonWhyte.com and currently of coppernblue.com, Mr.Laing brings forth a ton of experience and a wealth of Oilers knowledge that BLH could sorely use! One of Zach’s best posts so far is one he wrote about trading for Seth Jones here.
Corey Mitchell (@corn_cwm) – Corey comes to us from getrealhockey.com and he’ll be covering the Oilers prospects and minor league teams. He’s already posted twice with us here and here.
Ryan Robinson (@ryandlace) – You might know Ryan from the viral Youtube video “Life as an Oilers Fan”. We’re so jacked to have Mr.Robinson join us here at Beer League Heroes as he truly is the voice of the diehard Edmonton Oilers fan. Starting this season he’ll be contributing his vlogs to our site for all of you to enjoy!
Beer League Heroes T-Shirts
After Oilersnation was willing to partner up on the 16-Bit Heroes t-shirt design, We’ve opened up a “little” shop of our own over at Tee Public with over 100 different t-shirt designs. This is where you can get the official Beer League Heroes t-shirt AND where you can literally find your favorite NHL superstar in 16-bit form!
We do take requests!
Check out the pics below and head over to the link to find a shirt with your favorite player on it! The shirts are priced at $20 but when new designs are released they are on sale for 3 days for $14.
At the moment we’re designing some new 16-bit Edmonton Oilers designs so stay tuned for those. We’re planning to release those around the time of the Young Stars Tournament in Penticton (September 11-14th).
The Official T-ShirtJaromir JagrHenrik Lundqvist
Lastly, I’d like to comment on how proud I am of my team here. With out them BLH would still be a middling part-time blog over on Weebly and without them we wouldn’t be getting linked to and mentioned on such blogs as Puck Daddy, The Hockey Writers, or Copper and Blue (Walter Foddis got the mention at CnB).
Thanks guys! We’re in for an amazing year and I’m super stoked to have you all on board!
It was during the 2013 – 14 season when the Edmonton Oilers added Ilya Bryzgalov along with Denis Grebeshkov that an ever expressive Nail Yakupov was asked his thoughts on having some countrymen around.
“Yeah, it’s the Russian mafia,” Yakupov joked, and added his satisfaction in being able to communicate in his native language around the rink. Unfortunately for Nail, Bryzgalov and Grebeshkov weren’t destined to be Oilers for long. Grebeshkov was clearly outclassed and no longer an NHL player, while Bryzgalov looked for opportunities elsewhere.
Just a couple of years later, Yakupov still has one countryman to play Durak with on road trips, but low and behold there are several more on the horizon and the future Edmonton Oilers may someday have the highest Russian content this side of the Alexander Ovechkin’s Washington Capitals.
Who Likes Borscht on the Team Right Now?
Nail Yakupov: Yakupov still hasn’t found the consistency he needs to have as an NHL player, especially a former first overall draft pick. Nonetheless, he rebounded nicely when Dallas Eakins was fired and Todd Nelson took over. He also responded well when paired with Derek Roy, so even though he is teetering on the brink of being a bust, there is a strong belief that this will be the year Yakupov will establish himself with a solid 25 goal 50 point season. Yak has jam, a world class shot, and can deliver a serviceable check when needed. For the time being he will be an Oiler and have the opportunity to fulfill the promise of a number one overall pick.
Nikita Nikitin: Nikitin has arguably the biggest bullseye on his back affixed by Oiler’s fans and has been roundly criticized for indifferent and downright poor play. Amazingly he has survived the trade and buyout deadline and may very well be an Oiler come October. It is quite possible that the tandem of Mactavish and Howson still have some influence and have convinced Chiarelli that he has some value. In fairness, Nikitin does have some skills. He easily has the hardest shot on a team that is looking for a cannon from the blue line to help the powerplay. Nikitin is going into a contract year and that’s typically when most NHLers magically turn it around. Maybe he’ll be a reclamation project . . .
Young Guns on the Way
While there are two Russians currently on the team, the Oilers’ have two hopefuls in the development system that should make the team over the next two seasons, and will likely play in the top 9. They bring the requisite skill set you would expect from Russian trained hockey players, and also bring intangibles that cannot be taught, namely size.
Bogdan Yakimov: Standing 6’5″ and weighing in at 232 lbs., 20 year old Bogdan Yakimov doesn’t require any more time to fill out, in that respect he’s definitely arrived. But Yakimov is not just a big lug, he has hands and can skate. Yakimov also had a decent first year in pro with the OKC Barons with 28 points in 57 games, numbers he will doubtless build upon next year. In his first pro-year Yakimov also showed a keen willingness to learn, paired with a good work ethic, spending extra time with veterans and the coaching staff to learn different aspects on the North American game. In Russia such good behavior would earn the comment, “Mollodets” (translation: Good boy). Yakimov is still young and comparables are never 100% accurate, but forecasting him as a more rugged Victor Kozlov is a definite possibility. With respect to development, I would project him as an NHL player in two seasons.
Anton Slepyshev: Slepyshev has dazzled and teased the Oilers organization since he was drafted in the 2013 entry draft. The concern with Slepyshev was whether he would actually commit to playing in North America or instead continue playing in the KHL. However, any doubt about his commitment to the NHL was erased this year when Slepyshev signed an entry level deal with the Oilers. Slepyshev is not a physical monster, but no slouch either, checking in at 6’2 and 187 lbs and the kid can play. Not only does he play with all the skill you would expect of Russian skater, he’s also a gamer, playing his best in big games against the best competition. That’s what every organization wants. His first year at pro will be the litmus test on his potential, but he is definitely one of the most exciting young players in the system.
Danil Zharkov: Zharkov was pretty cocky when first drafted in the third round of the 2012 entry draft, 90 spots after Nail Yakupov. Zharkov was billed as a potential power forward, and scored 23 and 25 goals respectively in his last two seasons of major junior with the OHL’s Belleville Bulls. Unfortunately his development has not really progressed well since then and while he is playing in the KHL, he has not found much offensive production, scoring 5 points over 58 games in his career there so far. It doesn’t look like Danil’s NHL or pro dream is going to happen, but hey, he’s only 21 years old, stranger things can happen.
Potential Additions off the grid
Vladmir Tkachev: This diminutive offensive dynamo impressed all at the Oilers training camp last year (so much so that he was awarded a contract, that was eventually disallowed) but followed it up with a very lukewarm last year of junior in the QMJHL. When you weigh in at less than a 150lbs. and stand maybe 5’9″you had better be putting up some gaudy offensive numbers and Tkachev did not (33 points in 33 games with the Quebec Remparts last year). Nonetheless there may be a chance he is invited to camp again and has said in interviews he wants to join the Oilers and play with his countrymen already in the system. It’s a longshot right now but so was his surprise camp last year, so there’s still a possibility.
Evgeny Dadonov: Originally a third round pick of the Florida Panthers, Dadonov toiled for a short time in the AHL before bolting for bigger dollars and home cooking in the KHL. Dadonov has played three seasons in the K and had a nicely productive year in 2014 – 15 with 46 points in 53 games. Excellent numbers for that league. He also paced well in the playoffs, outscoring Ilya Kovalchuk with 20 points in 22 playoff games. Dadonov then capped his season with 11 points in 10 games for Russia at the World Championships and in my mind was their most consistent player in the tournament. The Oilers are deep at wing for now, but if there was a buyout for Purcell or a long term injury that needed to be addressed, he could be a splendid addition. At age 26 there wouldn’t be any seasoning required, but he would need to improve his defense, which reportedly needs work. Many of the goals he scored at the World Championships were world class and that’s where I would rate his talent. His rights are till held by the Panthers and I am somewhat surprised they haven’t tried to sign him, nonetheless he’s worth keeping an eye on. If he was made available, it shouldn’t take a lot to pry him out of the Panther’s organization.
How does the future look?
While it’s not likely that two years from now the Oilers will have anything approaching Detroit’s famed “Russian Five” of the 90’s, an all Russian line in the near future is a very real possibility with Big “Bo” Bogdan Yakimov at center and Slepyshev and Yakupov on the wings. As for any other additions, it’s too early to tell, and I can’t see Nikitin sticking around that long, but overall the team will soon have an increased Russian presence.
